At the end of each season, it’s important we look back and see what happened in the regular season to get us to the standings we have now. Once draft season comes back around, whether it be rookies or a fresh startup or redraft league, it’s important to look past what the end of the season standings are and see what a player’s real value might be.
So let’s look back at this past season to see which players had seasons that stood out statistically from the players in the tiers around them. Does this information mean you should definitely buy or sell a player? Absolutely not, but it may help you find where a player could be over or undervalued currently, and make a move that pays off in the long run.
Quarterback
Lamar Jackson
They say you should start big, so here we go. It’s no doubt to anyone that Lamar Jackson had one of the most incredible seasons as a Quarterback in the NFL, but the real question is how much of this can he keep up?
Let’s start with his rushing. It’s been well documented that he ran for over 1200 yards over 15 games. That’s an average of 80 yards a game! How does that compare to other Quarterbacks? In 2019, the top 12 Quarterbacks averaged 23.3 yards a game. That’s a difference of nearly 60 yards!
Of course, Lamar is not your typical Quarterback, but if you look at other QBs known for using their legs, you see the following:
- Josh Allen averaged 32 yards a game
- Russell Wilson averaged 21 yards a game
- Dak Prescott averaged 17 yards a game
When you average those 3 out you get 23.6 yards a game, not much higher than our top 12. Now, I’m not saying that Lamar is going to rush for 40 yards less a game next year, but he’s going to be hard-pressed to keep up this rate. NFL Defenses adapt, and he is a prime candidate to regress to the mean in this category.
Which brings us to the next thing to talk about with Lamar: touchdown passes. Lamar threw 36 touchdown passes over a mere 401 passes this season. That’s a 9% touchdown rate, which is absolutely absurd! The next closest are Ryan Tannehill at 7.7% and Drew Brees at 7.1%, both of which had amazing seasons themselves. Otherwise, the top 12 Quarterbacks in the league averaged 5.1%, which is more what you usually expect from a quality NFL Quarterback.
To put this in some context, in 2018 Patrick Mahomes had an 8.6% touchdown rate and Russell Wilson had an 8.2% touchdown rate. Both elite Quarterbacks that had very successful years, but they dropped to 5.4 and 6% touchdown rates respectively. I’m not saying Lamar isn’t going to be a top-end QB1 going forward, but after a magical season like this past one, you may not see a higher value on him.
Kyler Murray
The other extreme on the touchdown rate scale this past year is Kyler Murray. Kyler threw 20 Touchdowns over 542 pass attempts in 2019. That’s a meager 3.7% touchdown rate. Ouch.
So, what happened with Kyler? Well, again, looking at the top 12 QB’s in 2019, they had an average of 4,042 yards on 544 attempts, compared to Kyler’s 3,722 yards. So we’re definitely a little shy in yardage, but they also threw an average of 27 Touchdowns. 300 yards shy does not add up to a deficit of 7 touchdowns!
Assuming 6 points per passing touchdown, adding 7 more touchdowns to Kyler over 16 games would average an extra 2.6 points per game. While that may not sound like much, that moves him from QB 11 to QB 9 this past season. Combine that with a player many are expecting to improve in his second season, and Kyler is someone you need to be targeting in Dynasty Leagues!
Running Back
Christian McCaffery
Christian McCaffrey was pretty much a cheat code this season. He scored 113 more fantasy points than the next position player, Michael Thomas, and 123 more fantasy points than the next Running Back, Aaron Jones. Playing McCaffrey was pretty much the same as playing Nick Chubb and Marlon Mack in the same roster spot.
The crazy thing, though, while he was amazing this season, the only real category he stuck out wise statistically was opportunities. His 287 carriers puts him only behind Henry, Zeke, and Chubb, and his 141 targets dwarf’s all other running backs, with Ekeler at 108 and Fournette at 100 as the only other backs in triple digits. In fact, he had more targets than 6 of the WR1’s this year!
Otherwise, his fantasy points per opportunity, while in the top 25% of all running backs, was not a real statistical outlier. It’s actually around what you’d expect from a top running back. Sure, McCaffrey is absolutely elite and will likely remain an RB1, but will a new coaching staff keep using him at this level to create his insane level of production? This might be the best time to sell him at the crazy value he’s currently at.
Austin Ekeler
Now, if you want to talk about statistical outliers in fantasy points per opportunity, you need to look at Austin Ekeler. Over 16 games in 2019, Ekeler managed to score 1.09 fantasy points per opportunity [Fantasy Points / (Targets + Carries)]. To provide a little context, here are a few other players:
- Christian McCaffrey = 0.96 FFP/Opp
- Derrick Henry = 0.87 FFP/Opp
- Leonard Fournette = 0.61 FFP/Opp
That means that Ekeler was nearly twice as valuable as Fournette when he was given the ball. What does that mean for the future? Well, that all depends on the Chargers. If Melvin Gordon walks, and the Chargers don’t spend any major draft capital on a running back, Ekeler could turn out to be one of the top backs in 2020, even if his efficiency drops some. Of course, the Chargers could also make the mistake of letting Ekeler walk, as he is a restricted free agent this year.
Leonard Fournette
So why was each opportunity twice as valuable for Ekeler as it was for Fournette? Well, one needs to look no further than the touchdown column. Over 15 games, Fournette only ran in 3 touchdowns. For the top 12 Running Backs, the next worst 2 were Mixon and Kamara, who each rushed in 5 touchdowns. Kamara was hurt for much of the season, and Mixon was stuck on a terrible offense behind a horrible line.
In fact, the average number of rushing touchdowns for an RB1 not named Fournette is 10. If you add 7 more touchdowns to Fournette, his per-game average goes from 14.76 to 17.56, taking him from the RB14 in points per game to RB7, right between Zeke and Saquon. While I don’t think we can expect 100 targets a year for Fournette, any regression to the mean in touchdowns should greatly increase his value.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown
There’s no doubt that A.J. Brown broke out in the second half of 2019. Averaging over 4 receptions a game after Tennessee’s BYE week, Brown was one of the gems of the 2019 receiving class. He actually managed to score 2.18 fantasy points per opportunity, which was #1 for all Wide Receivers in 2019. For some context, compare the following:
- A.J. Brown – 2.18 FFP/Opp, 19% Target Share, 12% Hog Rate
- Michael Thomas – 1.61 FFP/Opp, 35% Target Share, 19% Hog Rate
- Chris Godwin – 1.93 FFP/Opp, 12.5% Target Share, 12.5% Hog Rate
That is incredible production for a rookie wide receiver! The main factor is the 9 touchdowns he scored on a mere 84 targets (and 3 carries). That puts him at a 10.34% touchdown rate. Thomas was only at 4.85%, and Godwin at 7.44%. Since touchdowns are the least predictable stat, there’s a decent chance that A.J. Brown could be at his highest value, but given he’s only a rookie, it could be really interesting to see where he goes from here.
Kenny Golladay
Speaking of crazy touchdown rates, the only WR1 that even comes close to A.J. Brown’s 10.34% is Kenny Golladay who scored 11 TD’s on 116 targets, for a 9.48% touchdown rate. Here are the next closest players:
- Chris Godwin – 7.46%
- Cooper Kupp – 7.46%
- Tyler Lockett – 7.27%
- Devante Parker – 7.03%
Everyone else in the top 24 is less than 7%. Outside of the top 24, you’ll also see Darius Slayton and Marvin Jones in the WR3 tier are also in the mid 9 percentile, but these players were extremely boom or bust for your team, each having huge multiple touchdown games.
What does this mean for Golladay? It’s tough to tell. He’s a little low in targets compared to the other receivers around him, but given he was stuck playing with David Blough for much of the season, we may not have to worry too much. At the same time, he had a number of games where he just vanished, including a couple with Stafford. He may be a high-risk payer going forward.
Tight End
Mark Andrews
There’s no doubting Mark Andrews burst onto the scene this year, ending up as the TE4. But the crazy thing about this is he managed to do it while only being on the field for 41% of this team’s snaps. That’s far below the 68% TE1’s saw in 2019. In fact, the 3 TE’s ahead of him, Kelce, Kittle, and Waller averaged an 86% snap share. More than double what Andrews saw.
So where did all this production come from? Well, first of all, Andrews had a whopping 21% hog rate. That meant 1 out of every 5 plays went his way when he was on the field. No other Tight End was over 15%. Combine this with the fact that Andrews scored 10 touchdowns this year on a mere 98 targets, that puts him at a 10.2% Touchdown rate, and a 1.78 Fantasy points per opportunity. Again, for context:
- Travis Kelce – 4.4% TD rate, 1.50 FFP/Opp
- George Kittle – 4.5% TD rate, 1.60 FFP/Opp
- Darren Waller – 2.5% TD rate, 1.48 FFP/Opp
- Zach Ertz – 4.4% TD rate, 1.27 FFP/Opp
While Andrews is a great player, and Baltimore is a team that loves to target their Tight Ends, it’s hard to imagine Andrew’s numbers, and therefore his value staying this high. Of course, if Baltimore puts him on the field more, those concerns could go away, but Baltimore seems to be a team that likes to rotate their players.
