One of the most volatile things in fantasy football is the public perception of player value. Like real football being a game of inches, fantasy football is a game that can change by the minute. Player values can rise and fall with every Twitter alert, one big play, or one disastrous injury. During the off-season, however, the public perception of value changes daily as managers are left analyzing data from the past to try and forecast the future. It’s all speculation at this point in the offseason.
In the year of COVID-19, dynasty values changed as quickly as cases racked up across the country. It was a volatile season! But 2020 was also the exception to the norm and some players who dipped in value should not be held liable long term for one down year. The obvious reasons are that star players got hurt and had their season cut short, and you should obviously buy their dip (e.g. Christian McCaffrey, Dak Prescott, Saquon Barkley, etc.). We also know those guys will return to greatness, because they’re great. Instead, let’s look at three currently distressed assets that can be acquired for lower than their 2020 off-season value, and should return value on that short-term investment in 2021.
Kenny Golladay
Kenny Golladay is essentially free as the change of scenery did little to sway public perception of him to the positive side. Expectations were high coming into 2020, which turned into a disappointing season after an early hamstring injury, then a hip flexor injury that landed him on IR after Week 9. With a trade to the Giants this offseason, Kenny G returns to an alpha role as long as his return from injury is complete. Fans, writers, and analysts will be monitoring his status throughout training camp.
Projection
I currently have Golladay projected for a 19% target share in New York, which would equate to approximately 108 targets. A reasonable projection for the WR1 on his team that had a bottom 3rd in the league passing offense. The Giants offense without Barkley last year produced the 26th overall offense in pass attempts per game with 32, and the 29th overall yards per game with 189.
With Barkley returning and an offensive line that is still ranked towards the bottom of the league, I conservatively project Golladay for 63 receptions for 1,071 yards and 8 TDs. In full PPR leagues this stat line projects to approximately 218 fantasy points, which would have been good for WR20 last year. Golladay is now catching passes from Daniel Jones who throws a 74.4% catchable pass rate, which is #33 overall, basically the worst in the league among starting QBs. Thankfully, Kenny Golladay has been the highest-graded WR on contested targets since 2018 per PFF, below.
Highest graded WRs on contested targets since 2018:
🥇 Kenny Golladay – 97.5
🥈 Allen Robinson – 95.1
🥉 DeAndre Hopkins – 94.0 pic.twitter.com/w2qZrL3gfG— PFF (@PFF) June 4, 2021
Current Value
Underdog ADP for best ball leagues that have been running all summer, list Golladay as WR26 with an ADP of 55 overall, which is on par with Sleeper ADP for PPR redraft and dynasty startups. Even with a conservative projection for this year, there is potential for an immediate return on investment. His full potential return comes from him exceeding those projections, which is possible with a full year from Barkley. Golladay has finished recent seasons anywhere from WR21 to WR9, and if fully healthy with a dominant share of the targets, he has low-end WR1 upside.
Future Value
Trades I’ve seen for Kenny Golladay range from Deebo Samuel, James Robinson, or Kareem Hunt as a 1:1 trade. These trades are fairly even as there is uncertainty with each of these guys. When formulating a package with picks for Golladay, an early 2022 2nd and Will Fuller, or a late 2023 1st and Michael Pittman, could do the trick. Golladay is on contract with the Giants for the next 4 years, with a potential out in 2025. I would expect at least 2 of those 4 years to be fantasy viable as a stable WR2 with low-end WR1 upside as the 27 year old is entering his 5th season. A great win-now candidate is available for relatively cheap.
Ezekiel Elliott
Ezekiel Elliott went from fantasy darling through Week 7 when he was a top 3 RB in the league, to Week 11 when his stock plummeted. Those first 5 weeks with Dak Prescott vaulted Elliott to the top of the RB charts, and he was able to keep that fantasy momentum going for 4 more weeks as he was still a top 5 RB in Week 9. From Week 11 onward Zeke was averaging just 60 rushing yards per game those final 5 weeks. As we see in the tweet below, when Zeke was playing with Dak under center, he was dominating the league.
Ezekiel Elliot’s RB ranks in the five games alongside Dak Prescott:
1st in routes run (172)
1st in carries inside the five (14)
3rd in receptions (24)
2nd in fantasy points (114) pic.twitter.com/IwcxMFOD09— Adam Pfeifer (@APfeifer24) July 19, 2021
That poor finish to the 2020 season left a bad taste in fantasy players’ mouths, leading some to throw Zeke shares off a boat. To add context, teams were able to stack the box more to stop Zeke without the threat of Dak throwing all over the field. This resulted in a bottom 3rd rating in the league for Open Field Yards, 2nd Level Yards, and Stuffed Rate per Football Outsiders. Zeke was not able to break off long runs the 2nd half of the season because he was stuffed at the line of scrimmage 18.5% of the time.
Projection
Well now Dak is back, and Zeke is looking in fantastic shape, lean and fast. We saw a similar commitment to fitness from Lebron James recently when he went to the Lakers as a way to play at a higher level for a longer period of time. This more fit Zeke, with an offensive line ranked 11th overall currently by our own Brad Wire, coupled with a prolific pass offense, can return Zeke to elite status. I conservatively have Zeke projected for 282 carries (career average) for 1,256 yards and 9 TDs, with 51 receptions for 357 yards and 2 TDs. A stat line that will produce approximately 272 PPR fantasy points, which would’ve ranked 4th overall for RBs last year.
Current Value
His current ADP is RB8 and 27th overall in dynasty SF startup drafts. Best ball players have come around more on Zeke, giving him an ADP of RB5 and 5th overall on Underdog. For redraft and dynasty leagues that ADP has him going in the early 3rd round, and drafts taking place in May/June saw Zeke drafted in the middle of the 4th round at worst. Overall, the fantasy community is starting to come around on Zeke maintaining his elite status. But at the height of speculation season, his value was significantly lower than what it was coming into 2020 as the RB3.
Future Value
This is exceptional value for an RB1 that finished 2020 as the RB9 despite a “down year”. Looking at various trade trackers, value is all over the place to make a trade for Zeke. The lowest value I saw Zeke traded for was for Myles Gaskin straight up. I love Myles, but that is ludicrous. I also saw trades for Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Aaron Jones which still shows Zeke has high trade value. But this shows if you want to trade for your Zeke you’ll have to find someone that is really out on him and probably doesn’t have Twitter. Your best bet at acquiring a share is to target Zeke in the 2nd (or even 3rd) Round of drafts to pair with another stud to set your team off right with two top 5 players.
Michael Thomas
Drew Brees has officially retired, and the Saints QB situation is in flux for the first time in a long time. We’re now waiting for the final decision on who will be the new starting QB for the Saints, Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. My money is on Jameis who is the most complete QB, but I also expect to still see plenty of Taysom Hill. This question has the greatest affect on Michael Thomas’ fantasy success in 2021 and beyond. But, if Michael Thomas is really as good as we think he is shouldn’t he be QB proof for fantasy? Here are the splits for Michael Thomas with Drew Brees and Taysom Hill.
Taysom Hill
There’s a clear dip in almost every category when Taysom Hill was under center, most notably touchdowns. Average depth of target (aDOT) was the one stat that did not decrease, a result of the game plan when both QBs were playing. The king of the slant route thrived with Drew Brees peppering him with targets, but when Taysom Hill was throwing the ball he targeted Thomas less often but more aggressively downfield. However, the game plan when Taysom was in the game was to run the ball more, mostly through Taysom. Hill led all QBs in carries and even Kamara saw a dip in production with Hill starting.
For Thomas’ fantasy sake, I’m hoping Winston is the starter. When Thomas is fed a steady stream of 120+ targets per season he will put up WR1 numbers. That’s what he has done every season of his professional career until last season when he missed 9 games due to 2 right leg injuries. And like his profile on Reception Perception shows, he’s successful at a lot more than just the slant route. He’ll find ways to win on almost any route thrown his way, by whoever is throwing it. But if it’s Jameis we know the ball will get thrown far more often and target Thomas significantly more times.
Slant boy? Not in our books 📚 still a whole lot of green on this tree.
You can find the full Saints WR1 profile here -> https://t.co/4cXwrsczqV pic.twitter.com/mLy2huMEgG
— Reception Perception (@RecepPerception) July 16, 2021
Jameis Winston
Thomas has been playing at an elite level despite a lack of an elite Player Profile. He has outperformed what was expected of him coming into the league, partly thanks to the Saints and Drew Brees. But now is his opportunity to prove he can still be elite without Brees. If Winston is throwing him the ball, he can return to elite status. Looking at the last time Winston started all season (2019) he put up the most passing yards and completed air yards. This was thanks to the most pass attempts in the league. He also threw the most INTs on a 30/30 year (TD/INT). He may not be great for real football based on ball security and wins, but he’s great for fantasy and can rekindle that high production with Thomas.
When we look at Winston’s numbers with another elite type of WR in Chris Godwin from 2018/2019 we can see Winston had an aDot of 11.2, 84.2 yards/game, 10.4, yards/target, and 12 TDs. All numbers more in line with Drew Brees and Michael Thomas. Two areas we don’t see an increase are in targets/game (8.1) and receptions/game (5.3). So given the scheme, both Winston and Hill may target Thomas a similar amount but the quality of the targets is much better from Winston.
Projection
I have projected Michael Thomas at a reasonable 25% target share (23% historic avg.) which equates to approximately 137 targets, 103 receptions off a 75% catch rate, 1,030 yards with a conservative 10 YPR, and 7 TDs. This stat line totals approximately 249 fantasy points (full PPR), good enough for WR11 last year. Take into account Winston’s success with Godwin, and Thomas could easily exceed this projection, making him a safe mid-high end WR1.
There’s no trend to show that Thomas would see less than 120 targets. Sean Payton’s Saints offense has been #1 in passing attempts per game 5 times since 2006. They ranked in the top 5 for passing attempts 5 more times. However, since 2017 (Alvin Kamara’s rookie year) they haven’t cracked the top 15 in passing attempts.
Editor’s Note: As of July 23, 2021, Michael Thomas’ status for the start of the season is up in the air with news that he is recovering from an ankle operation in June. With a 4 month recovery timetable seemingly as a best case scenario, Thomas’ 2021 projections should come with tempered expectations as we can no longer assume he will be posting WR1 numbers this year. However, Thomas isn’t expected to miss the entire season so if he can return to the field in peak condition at some point in the season, we could expect solid PPG numbers from the Saints WR1, and hopefully a significant boost to a playoff and championship contending fantasy team.
Current Value
That’s the trend to watch as Payton starts to rely more on Kamara and Hill to balance out the offensive attack until they find their next franchise QB. But the concern for Thomas without Brees has dropped his value in dynasty leagues to WR9 with an ADP ranging from 27th (Underdog) to 46th overall in SF startup drafts (Sleeper). It’s not a huge drop, but a significant one for the overall WR1 in 2019 who had an ADP of WR1 (8th overall) in 2020.
Future Value
For teams looking to rebuild, Michael Thomas still holds high value for some as I have seen he’s been traded recently for the pair of Jerry Jeudy and Rashod Bateman, as well as for Terry McLaurin and CeeDee Lamb. His value still holds enough upside to also get two 1st Round Rookie picks in trade. I would hold or try to acquire Thomas for any team looking to win now. He’s right at the tipping point age wise (28) before he’ll statistically start to fall off a cliff. So I expect 2021 to be a prove it year as the Saints have the option for an out in 2022, despite being on contract until 2024. A fantastic candidate for an immediate return on investment to elite status.
Huge shoutout to Brian (@BpoFSU) for help with finding the data and running the numbers used in this article.
