It is the last week of the regular season for people playing season-long redraft and dynasty. Well, guess what? If you are one of those who got eliminated or might after this week, you can stay tuned right here and keep playing DFS through the regular season of the NFL and into the playoffs.
I also wanted to throw out there that I will be working with my favorite charity, Ride Hard Breathe Easy, on the NFL Playoff challenge again this year. It is a $20 entrance fee, and half the money will go to Ride Hard Breathe easy to help support their mission: “End the stigma and suffering for lung cancer patients and caregivers, in memory of Kathleen Matthews.”
Please consider playing in this tournament and helping the good cause. You can reach out to me to get started.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Taysom Hill
Hill again showed how valuable he could be in fantasy with his Week 13 numbers this year’s first start. 264 passing yards and 2 touchdowns passing and 101 rushing yards on 11 carries. He is the epitome of the Komani Code. Taysom is like a box of chocolates in that you never know what you are gonna get, rushing or passing production. But you will get something sweet for sure, plus this week is against the lowly Jets. If he is playing, I am playing him. Run Taysom, Run! (in my best Forrest Gump sounding voice)
$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel
Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence hasn’t been perfect this season. The Titans’ defense also hasn’t been excellent against quarterbacks this season. In Week 5, Lawrence had his best game of the season. He threw for 273 yards and a touchdown and ran for 28 yards and another touchdown. Lawrence looks like he has a chance to have another big week against a not-so-good defense this week.
$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,300 on Fanduel
Dak Prescott
Since the bye week, the Washington Football team has been pretty good against opposing quarterbacks, but they still rank as the friendliest defense for quarterbacks to play. Dak will have his full set of receivers active this week against the WFT. Washington has given up multiple touchdowns to quarterbacks in three of the last four games. Dak is bouncing back in Week 14.
$6,700 on DraftKings
$8,100 on Fanduel
Other Quarterbacks for Week 14
Derek Carr
$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel
Zach Wilson
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,600 on Fanduel
Taylor Heinicke
$5,500 on DraftKings
$7,100 on Fanduel
Super Sneaky Play
Marcus Mariota if you want low-end quarterback play. Kenyon Drake broke his ankle and is out. The Raiders have used Mariota in running plays as a special package. He scored a touchdown on Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. Someone is picking up that role in this offense.
$4,500 on DraftKings
$6,100 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara
The Jets give up the most points to opposing running backs in fantasy weekly, and it’s not even close. Running backs averaged 180 yards and 2 touchdowns against the Jets weekly. So I don’t think you need me to tell you to play Kamara; I think you need me to ask you to pay up for him in DFS this week. It’s going to be a very BIG week for Kamara this week.
$7,900 on DraftKings
$9,000 on Fanduel
Javonte Williams
The Broncos are playing the Lions, who give up the third-most fantasy points to the running back position in fantasy. This looks pretty simple. Play this Williams kid; he had a huge game last week and is playing a cream puff defense this week. He has over 100 and/or a touchdown in three of the previous four weeks, giving him double-digit fantasy finishes in those three weeks. It looks like Javonte time is here.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Dontrell Hilliard
Why Hilliard and not Foreman? Hilliard has double-digit scores in each of the last two games. His only two games this season. The team talks about playing Foreman, but Hilliard has played more snaps each of the past two weeks. The Jaguars are up this week, and they give up 126 yards and a touchdown on average to running backs weekly. So yes, I like Hilliard; if you look closely below, you’ll see I like Foreman as well.
$5,300 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Other Running Backs for Week 14
D’Onta Foreman
$5,100 on DraftKings
$5,900 on Fanduel
Auston Ekeler
$8,300 on DraftKings
$9,200 on Fanduel
Ameer Abdullah
$4,800 on DraftKings
$5,200 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
CeeDee Lamb
Lamb has been a little up and down this season. The Washington Football Team gives up the 3rd most points to wide receivers in fantasy. Last week, Renfrow had 9 receptions for 102 yards against this defense out of the slot, where Lamb plays most often. I like Lamb to heat up on the road this week. The pieces fit together, and I can’t fight that.
$7,200 on DraftKings
$7,800 on Fanduel
Elijah Moore
Moore has scored in double digits in five out of the last six games. I had some fear with Zach Wilson last week, but I feel better now. The twelve targets Zach fed Moore for 6 receptions, 77 yards, and a touchdown made me feel so much better. That 32% target share was like getting an infected tooth pulled; it made me feel so much better. If I feel this good about Elijah, then you should too. Moore, Moore, Moore, How do you like it? How do you like it? I like it a lot
$5,900 on DraftKings
$6,300 on Fanduel
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
I like volume, and I like large target share. Nick had those in Week 14. He had a 29% target share and scored a touchdown. In the previous game, he had 7 receptions and 107 yards. I know Julio Jones is back, but he has been very “meh” this season. The opponent is the Jaguars; the price is right. Nick Westbrook-how ever I say the last portion of his name, is a great play this week.
$4,500 on DraftKings
$5,700 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 14
DJ Moore
$6,200 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Terry Mclaurin
$7,000 on DraftKings
$7,100 on Fanduel
Laviska Shenault
$4,300 on DraftKings
$5,300 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce
This is Travis Kelce, the best tight end in fantasy. So how much convincing do you need to pay up for him in DFS? The Chiefs are playing the Raiders, and the Raiders give up the second-most points to tight ends in fantasy production. They are friendly, so damn friendly. When the Chiefs played the Raiders a few weeks ago, Kelce had 8 receptions and 119 yards. I would look for something like this again this week.
$7,400 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Dawson Knox
He sucked in Week 14 against the Patriots. There I said it. But he still had 6 targets. He played 97% of the snaps, had a 20% target share. Simply put, the opportunity was still there. This week that opportunity will come against a bottom ten defense against tight ends, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bounce back in Tampa for Knox.
$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,000 on Fanduel
Evan Engram
The Chargers aren’t perfect against tight ends. They have given up 10 touchdowns to the position so far this season. I pretty much hate the Giants right now, but Engram led them in Week 13 with 61 yards receiving. He is playing well; the opportunity against a defense that doesn’t defend well against his position is here. Engram looks like an excellent play in Week 14. Someone has to do something for the Giants; Engram is that someone. (I know that makes you feel SO warm and fuzzy, doesn’t it)
$3,500 on DraftKings
$5,300 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 14
George Kittle
$6,900 on DraftKings
$7,100 on Fanduel
David Njoku
$3,400 on DraftKings
$5,000 on Fanduel
Nick Vannett
$3,100 on DraftKings
$4,700 on Fanduel
Heart Breakers
Quarterbacks
Tom Brady
The Bills are up in Week 14. Brady has been outstanding this season; there is no doubt. This week he is playing against a very tough Bills defense against the pass. They have only given up two 20+ point fantasy days to quarterbacks all season. They have given up 3 passing touchdowns in the past eight games. I am playing him in redraft myself, but the blueprint for beating the Bills is on the ground.
Matt Ryan
The Panthers’ defense has given up one 20+ point game in the past six games. On Week 8 The Falcons played the Panthers and Ryan 146 yards and a touchdown. He sucked. I expect much of the same suckiness (is that a word?). Yuck, most likely you weren’t playing him. I hope you weren’t. Even in two QB leagues, yuck.
Jared Goff
Denver is tough against quarterbacks. This may be my most straightforward write-up ever. The Lions suck, and the Broncos’ Defense is good. If you thought I was saying you don’t play Ryan, you could imagine how I feel about this. No to Goff in DFS, no to Goff in redraft, no to Goff.
Running Backs
Jets Running Backs
If you are so desperate that you may be considering either Ty Johnson or Tevin Coleman, I sincerely feel for you. However, if you were considering paying down for one of these guys in DFS, please stop smoking crack or whatever it is that drove you to craziness. The Jets play the Saint in Week 14, and the Saints are the toughest defense against running backs.
Antonio Gibson
Gibson is probably going to produce at least somewhat. I like him because he has been so consistent. But I am not paying his price in DFS this week, where he is playing against the third toughest defense against the run, the Dallas Cowboys. So look for the WFT to pass a lot.
Nick Chubb
Only one running back has rushed for over 100 yards, and running backs have only scored 7 touchdowns this season against the Ravens defense. You are probably playing Chubb in redraft (sorry), but under no circumstances should you play him in DFS. DO NOT DO IT (all caps for effect)
Wide Receivers
Russell Gage
Remember when I stated, don’t play Matt Ryan? Yeah, the same for Russell Gage. The Panthers are good at defending the pass, there I said it again. I love the volume this guy has been getting lately, and I love what he has been doing. Thus it’s a no-no. Yes, I am resorting to baby talk now because I know I have to with some of you. Remember, kids, Russell Gage is a no-no in Week 14.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Amon-Ra had a great Week 13. The Lions overall did. I am so happy they won. I like Amon-Ra and Josh Reynolds overall. But I am not playing any of the Lions’ passing game members this week in DFS. The Lions are playing the Broncos, and the Broncos are a top 10 defense against wide receivers.
Marquise Brown
Fantasy is a weekly game. A couple of weeks ago, Brown had 8 receptions for 51 yards against the Browns. I love the Ravens’ passing game most weeks. I don’t love it against the Browns’ defense. Hollywood if he could, but this week he can’t, so he won’t.
Tight Ends
TJ Hockenson
People hate when I have players like Hockenson as a Heart Breaker. I get told I am a hater, blah blah blah. Denver has given up 1 touchdown to tight ends all season. That is correct, just 1. Only one tight end has had 5 receptions against them. I cannot stress enough the Broncos are an outstanding real-life defense.
Rob Gronkowski
So you read this far? I am super happy that you did. The Buccaneers defend the tight end well; the Bills also have an excellent real-life defense. It probably helps that everyone is deciding to run against them now and not pass. There are five weeks a tight end has only had 1 reception against this defense. I think that pads the stats a little. Don’t play Gronk in DFS unless you want to go against the grain.
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back soon for Mike’s weekly Untangling the Wire.
