At a typical NFL Combine, the league invites somewhere around 335 players for athletic testing in front of NFL scouts and GMs. The NFL states that their goal with these invites is to “invite every player that will be drafted in the ensuing NFL draft.” Unfortunately, however, plenty of guys have fallen through the cracks in this imperfect process. These missed prospects include the likes of Julian Edelman, Doug Baldwin, Josh Gordon, Danny Woodhead, and Austin Ekeler.
A Look Back
I’ve compiled all finishes from the previous nine seasons (2013-2021) and sorted out the results by who was invited to the Combine.
With the quarterback position, the NFL usually invites around ten players, covering all the bases. However, since 2013, there have been only FOUR QBs to finish in the top 40 at the position in fantasy. Matt Moore, Matt Cassel, Taysom Hill, and Tyler Huntley. Of those, only Hill’s 2020 season and Moore’s 2013 and 2014 seasons finished in the top 32 at the position, with Hill’s 29th ranked finish leading the way for QBs not invited to the Combine.
At running back, it’s easier to find success in the league despite playing at a smaller school, and therefore easier to slip through the cracks of the NFL’s invitation process. There have been six top 12 RB seasons from players who weren’t invited to the Combine, including two seasons from Danny Woodhead, two seasons from Austin Ekeler, and a season each from Fred Jackson and Chris Ivory. Ekeler is the cream of the crop here, as his 2019 and 2021 seasons both resulted in top 4 finishes at the position.
Overall, non-Combine invitees have accounted for just nine top 24 RB seasons since 2013, or just 4.17% of all top 24 RB seasons. Conversely, for the top 40 RB seasons, 26 have come from non-Combine invitees or 7.22%.
Six top 12 seasons have come at wide receiver from players who weren’t invited to the Combine; those came from Josh Gordon, Adam Thielen, and Doug Baldwin. Outside of the top 12, they’re joined by other productive players such as Wes Welker, Cole Beasley, Adam Humphries, Victor Cruz, Tim Patrick, Dontrelle Inman, and Keelan Cole.
Only 18 top 36 WR seasons have come from players who weren’t invited to the Combine; that’s just 5.56% of such seasons.
Last but not least, the tight end has been the most straightforward position to succeed at without attending the Combine. Antonio Gates, who infamously didn’t play college football before going pro, is the most successful of TEs who didn’t attend the Combine. As for top 12 TE finishes, Gates is joined by Robert Tonyan, Benjamin Watson, Jack Doyle, and Cameron Brate.
Over the last nine seasons, there have been 11 TE1 finishes from players who weren’t invited to the Combine. That makes up 10.19% of such finishes. Meanwhile, 11.11% of all top 24 TE finishes in the past nine seasons have come from this cohort of TEs.
This Year’s Snubs
Even though we’ve seen that the odds are slim for these guys, there are still some names worth knowing who didn’t get invited this year.
Quarterback
Starting at QB, only one name sticks out, and he doesn’t stick out much. That player is Aqeel Glass from Alabama A&M, who threw for 3,568 yards with 31 TDs and 7 INTs in 2021. Glass is considered a fringe draft prospect, but he’s been highly productive for four straight seasons, albeit at a low level of competition. Luckily for Glass, he was able to show his talents to NFL evaluators at the HBCU Combine before the Senior Bowl, so he may still be drafted.
Running Back
At running back, two more FCS players lead the way among players not invited. Sacred Heart RB Julius Chestnut and East Tennessee State RB Quay Holmes. Chestnut is listed at 6’1″ and 215 lbs, and he rushed for 542 yards and three scores in just five games in 2021. After rushing for 717 yards and 8 TDs in just four games in 2020. He’s been a productive player running the football for all four seasons, but he hasn’t been great in the passing game, as he’s caught just 28 passes over his career.
Meanwhile, Quay Holmes has shown the ability to be an incredibly dynamic back, rushing for over 1,000 yards in both 2019 and 2021 while catching over 30 passes in both 2018 and 2021. His total 2021 stats include 1,553 rushing yards, 32 catches, 331 receiving yards, and 20 total TDs while helping ETSU to an 11-2 season, including a win over Vanderbilt and a playoff berth. Holmes finishes his career at ETSU with 4,233 rushing yards, 45 rushing TDs, 93 receptions, 799 receiving yards, and 6 receiving TDs.
One surprising snub at RB at the power-five level was Duke RB Mataeo Durant. Durant accounted for 1,497 total yards and 11 total TDs last season with 3,042 total yards and 22 total TDs across his four-year career with the Blue Devils. Durant is very slender at 6’1″ 195 lbs, which likely rules him out of being a producer for fantasy football. However, his college production probably warranted a Combine invite.
Wide Receiver
In my opinion, the biggest snub of the entire Combine came at the WR position and was one Jerreth Sterns. Sterns began his career at FCS Houston Baptist alongside QB Bailey Zappe and OC Zach Kittley. The trio lit the stat-sheet on fire together, and all of them moved to FBS Western Kentucky together before the 2021 season. The high-flying attack didn’t slow down with the move up in competition, as the Hilltoppers led the FBS in passing yards – with almost 1,000 more yards than the second place Crimson Tide.
Jerreth Sterns was a massive part of that production, as he accounted for 150 receptions, 1902 receiving yards, and 17 touchdowns, a performance that led the FBS in all three categories. Sterns was being mocked at the 171st pick (5th round) per NFL Mock Draft Database, but that’s likely to drop now.
In addition to Sterns, Jaivon Heiligh is another WR destroying cornerbacks at the group of five-level. Paired with Grayson McCall at Coastal Carolina, Heiligh caught 66 passes for 1,128 yards and 7 TDs in 2021 after catching 65 for 998 passes and 10 TDs in 2020. He displayed electric jump-ball ability at 6’2″, looked the part of a possible NFL contributor, and was being mocked at pick 132 per NFL Mock Draft Database.
One other surprising group of 5 WR snubs was Utah State WR Deven Thompkins. Despite his small frame at 5’8″ 155 lbs, he compiled the second-most receiving yards in the FBS last season. His quickness, burst, and ball-tracking ability made him a tough cover for many a DB, but apparently, the NFL think-tank doesn’t see him as a draftable prospect.
Even more great college WRs haven’t been provided the opportunity to show their skills at the Combine. These wideouts include Wake Forest WR Jaquarii Roberson, who posted 71/1078/8 last season to cap off a 146/2158/17 career for the Demon Deacons, Washington State WRs Travell Harris and Calvin Jackson Jr, who posted 76/814/9 and 66/987/7, respectively, last season, and Nebraska WR Samori Toure, who was one of the top WRs in the FCS before transferring up this season and posting 46/898/5.
These players now face an uphill battle to crack an NFL roster and eventually become contributors. Still, anything can happen if they’re able to put their best foot forward during rookie minicamps.
