Fantasy Redraft Formula – Rookie TE Edition
Equation Construction
I wanted a way to come up with a “formula” to help differentiate between players and to help decide on how to find the best players for when I am drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that, when combined, give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.
Draft Capital – The higher team drafted the player in the NFL Draft; historically, that player has more opportunities to get a greater chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.
Opportunities – There are a limited number of given snaps in the NFL and even more limited options for opportunities (plays with the ball). All players that project to be healthy and primary usage in their offenses get their calculation here.
Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks) greatly benefit when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy. Running backs and tight ends generally aren’t swayed too much from their situations, but it is still good to include them for tiebreakers and one-of cases.
Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athlete they were before the draft, don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion on the player.
2021 Rookie TE Review
Only a couple of tight ends came out of this group, considered fantasy relevant for redraft, and both came through. Kyle Pitts had a historic draft investment with the fourth overall pick and the rookie season to show why he was worth the investment. Pat Freiermuth was an excellent mid-season addition to some teams streaming the position. Both players were drafted as viable options for that year, but most focused on Pitts, which had a historic season.
| Tight End | 2021 ADP | 2021 TE Finish |
| Kyle Pitts | TE4 | TE6 |
| Pat Freiermuth | TE22 | TE13 |
Draft Capital
The 2022 NFL Draft had some excellent players, and NFL teams took some exciting Tight End prospects. Trey McBride was at the group’s top and drafted by the Arizona Cardinals in the second round. There were several others in the later rounds, but none have severe draft capital when evaluating them for redraft leagues. Therefore, I would only put McBride as an option when weighing this variable if something were to happen to Zach Ertz during the preseason/training camp.
Opportunities
The first significant variable that hurts most rookie tight ends entering the NFL. Opportunities are generally given to veteran TEs unless they have a considerable investment in being drafted in the first round. Looking through all the rookie tight ends in the 2022 NFL draft, most situations will take a long-term injury or decline in performance in the starting tight ends for their respective teams. Trey McBride, Greg Dulcich, and Daniel Bellinger are some names to watch. All have shown to be doing well in training camp, and each only has one veteran to beat out for opportunities.
Supporting Cast
Not as a concern for the tight ends as it can be for the other skill positions, but it is still worth mentioning that a coaching staff that values the tight end position and a veteran quarterback that knows to use their safety valve is something to monitor. Matt Ryan stepping into Indianapolis Colts as the starting QB and a coaching staff that has shown to use the tight end, Jelani Woods would be an excellent mid-season flier if he begins to outperform Mo Allie-Cox. Look at each team’s situations when focusing on redraft strategies and get a sense of some of these tight ends that could step up like Pat Freiermuth did last year.
Draft Profile
Looking at the rookie prospects this year, Trey McBride was the only tight end that was getting most of the attention. I think there are some great dynasty stashes from this class, and some will pay off more than others. I will be using the Undroppables Rookie Guide to evaluate and use their scores for my formula; you should also know to help give you a leg up on the competition in your home league!
Result
Taking into account each variable in this equation, I would stay away from all the rookie tight ends when it comes to redraft strategies. This season, there are much better fliers from veterans like Austin Hooper, Cole Kmet, and Evan Engram. Always be willing to reevaluate each situation as every week in the NFL season will be changing, and thanks to your preseason research on these rookies, you will have the edge on your opponents in your league! Follow me on Twitter for weekly articles during the season for streaming and roster drops and good luck to you this season!
