This is my third season writing this article, and many times, people read the Money Makers and tell me I am crazy. Other times, they look at the Heart Breakers and say, “you can’t tell me not to play so, and so that guy is a stud”. There are very few real “studs” in fantasy. I will get some wrong; it happens. But, I also get a lot correct. I am more OK when a Heart Breaker hits and people tell me I was wrong than if a Money Maker busts and breaks my heart.
Why? Why Michael (yes, I am using my full first name as if I am talking seriously to myself in the third person)…where was I? oh, yeah. Why Michael? Why? Do you take chances on the upside, and why are you not afraid to play the guy in the great matchup?
I don’t know if you watch Rick and Morty, but I can sum it all up with this quote:
“To Live Is to Risk It All. Otherwise, You’re Just an Inert Chunk of Randomly Assembled Molecules Drifting Wherever the Universe Blows You.” – Rick Sanchez
I want to live; I want you to live; I want to feel alive. So let’s take some risks, which I have mitigated because Rick is drunk a lot in the show, and I am not drunk all the time in real life.
Let’s Make Some Money and Break some Hearts!
If you are new here, this column can help you handle some sit/start questions you might have, but its primary purpose is to take you through the main DFS slate weekly with players that will make you money and players that will break your heart.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen
The Bills are playing the Ravens in Week 4. The Ravens give the second most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Allen has scored the second most fantasy points this season. Every quarterback to play the Ravens has thrown for over 300 yards. Josh Allen has over 300 yards (combined) and multiple touchdowns in every game this season. It is almost like this one is writing itself. Pay up for Allen this week; he will be worth it.
$8,400 on DraftKings
$8,900 on Fanduel
Jacoby Brissett
Brissett is playing against the Falcons in Week 4. The Falcons have given up an average of 20 points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Every quarterback to face them has passed for multiple touchdowns and 260 or more yards. Brissett has played relatively well and has thrown four touchdowns in the first three games. He will throw two more in Week 4.
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Geno Smith
Geno has two games this season with multiple touchdowns. This week he plays against a Lions team that has given up five passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. The Lions give up the third most points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Every quarterback has either 300 total yards and/or multiple touchdowns against the Lions.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,600 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 4
Cooper Rush
$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
Russell Wilson
$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,100 on Fanduel
Matt Ryan
$5,600 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Rashaad Penny
The Lions give up the most points to running backs in fantasy. The Lions have given up six rushing touchdowns over the season’s first three weeks. While they have not given up a 100-yard rushing game, five running backs have scored double-digit fantasy points against them this season. If Penny is going to do it, this is the week
$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel
Jamaal Williams
Williams is having a good season. He has scored four touchdowns thus far in 2022. Swift is injured, and Williams will take over as the lead back for the Lions. Williams has 12 touches in the redzone which is where all 4 of his touchdowns come from. The Lions play the Seahawks in Week 4. The Seahawks give up a double-digit score to opposing teams running backs every week of the season.
$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel
Khalil Herbert
After a huge Week 3, he will probably be chalky, but that is OK. Herbert had 169 total yards and two touchdowns in Week 3. He faces the Giants, who gave up five double-digit fantasy scores to running backs in the first three weeks of the season. The Bears don’t pass much so they will run the ball through Herbert.
$5,700 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel
Other Running backs for Week 4
Saquon Barkley
$8,000 on DraftKings
$8,100 on Fanduel
Dameon Pierce
$5,600 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Breece Hall
$5,400 on DraftKings
$6,300 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs
I know it’s obvious because he is the top-scoring wide receiver in fantasy that you should consider playing him. But it’s even better than you think this week. The Ravens give up the most points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. They are so friendly to the position that Devante Parker had a personal best of 156 yards against them in Week 3. So Diggs will bring his 27% target share and 79% catch rate up against the Ravens in a game with a 51.5 over/under shootout!
$8,400 on DraftKings
$8,700 on Fanduel
CeeDee Lamb
Lamb has a 31% target share with 11 or more targets in each game this season. The volume is fantastic. Meanwhile, the Commanders give up the third most fantasy points to wide receivers. There have been five double-digit fantasy scores this season by wide receivers against the Commanders. They give up an average of 217 yards a game to wide receivers, who have scored five touchdowns against the commanders in the first three weeks of the season. Lamb will take his volume and produce in Week 4.
$6,700 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Michael Pittman Jr.
The Titans gave up six touchdowns to wide receivers in 2022 while also bleeding yards. Pittman has double-digit scores in each game he has played this season. He has 22 targets for 17 receptions, 93 yards, and a touchdown in 2 games. That is a 26% target share and a 77% catch rate. The Colts’ passing offense goes through Pittman; this is a good week for that to happen.
$7,200 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 4
Amari Cooper
$6,300 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Brandin Cooks
$5,800 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
Elijah Moore
$5,300 on DraftKings
$5,500 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
David Njoku
Njoku has a 19% target share of the Browns’ passes. He also had a big breakout game in Week 3 with nine receptions for 89 yards and a touchdown. But that was last week. This week he goes up against the second friendliest defense to tight ends, the Falcons. So far, the Falcons have given up a double-digit score to a tight end in every game this season. Njoku will keep that streak alive in week 4.
$3,700 on DraftKings
$5,700 on Fanduel
Geoff Swaim
This season, the Colts have given up eight or more fantasy points to tight ends. They have also given up three touchdowns to the position. Swaim is a TD-dependent player. This week he scores a touchdown. I know, I know we are grasping at straws here.
$3,000 on DraftKings
$4,700 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 4
Robert Tonyan
$3,500 on DraftKings
$4,900 on Fanduel
Will Dissly
$3,200 on DraftKings
$4,800 on Fanduel
Daniel Bellinger (because why not)
$2,800 on DraftKings
$4,600 on Fanduel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Lamar Jackson
I expected people to go nuts when I had Tua here last week. Instead, the Bills’ defense held him to 11 fantasy points. The Bills’ defense gives the fewest points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Stafford, Tannehill, and Togovailoa have all been completely held in check. If any quarterback can do well against the Bills’ defense, it is Jackson. I would be playing him in season long, but there is no way I will pay for him against this defense in fantasy. I just hurt my feelings typing this out because I love Jackson.
Tua Tagovailoa
Tua was held in check by the Bills last week. This week he gets a Bengals who are also exceptionally tough on opposing teams’ passing games. They also haven’t played anyone of the quality of Tua. Tua is dinged up from the Bills, and I don’t like this matchup. I would avoid playing him in all formats this week.
Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence was here last week and made me look foolish by saying yuck. He had a great game. This week the Jaguars play the Eagles. The Eagles defend the pass, especially to wide receivers, exceptionally well. So temper your expectations if you are trying to ride his last week’s production; remember that it was last week. I like Lawrence for season-long play, though; super fun team to watch.
Running Backs
Josh Jacobs
The Denver Broncos are the third-best team against running back in fantasy this year. The Broncos have given up 0 touchdowns to running backs and have yet to give up a 100-yard rushing game this season. Jacobs looked good last week, but OMG, avoid him if you can in Week 4. Sorry, Tommy. (@2on1FFB is a big Raiders fan).
Aaron Jones
If you have A-A-Ron in season long, you are playing him. I am myself. But in DFS, do not pay for him this week. Why? Why? Mike, Jones is a fantasy stud! Tampa shut him down last week. The Patriot defense is also no slouch against the run. Only Najee Harris has hit double-digit fantasy points against the Patriots this season. No running back has surpassed 60 yards, and they have given up 0 touchdowns to running backs thus far. Sorry but I am entirely out in DFS. It feels icky.
Samaje Perine/Joe Mixon
Only one running back has scored a touchdown against the Miami defense this season. That was Devin Singletary last week. No running backs have passed 50 yards rushing yet against them. This is a good defense against the run. Mixon is dinged up if he plays; if not, I am also out on Perine. I can feel the throw-up in my mouth, making me queasy.
Wide Receivers
Davante Adams
The Broncos have been the best team against wide receivers in fantasy points. They have not played any great passing offenses yet, though. I am still out on Adams in DFS; in season-long, you are playing him. Anything could be in the range of outcomes for him in this game. I don’t like that. Mitigate risk in DFS and play someone with more upside this week. It feels dirty but also feels so good. Let’s face it; you perverts sometimes dirty does feel good.
Tyreek Hill
The Bengals give up the fourth fewest points to wide receivers in fantasy. There is hope here for Hill. Noah Brown is the only wide receiver to score a touchdown on this defense. I wouldn’t be surprised if Waddle or Hill does. But which one? The matchup is terrible. Avoid it in DFS.
Romeo Doubs
The Patriots’ defense is an excellent real-life defense. They are tough against the run and tough against the pass. Meanwhile, the Packers’ passing offense is not so good. Doubs had an excellent game last week; that was last week. I am not touching this guy in Week 4. I am not touching him with your hand. We are not touching him. Did you get that? I hope you did; I am just trying to help.
Tight Ends
Mark Andrews
The Bills’ defense is good. The Bills’ defense is outstanding. They give up the fourth fewest points to tight ends in fantasy. Mark Andrew is also excellent; he is so good he makes good tight ends look bad. For season long, I am playing him no matter what. In DFS, I’ll look elsewhere this week. This hurts me to type almost as much as calling Jackson a heartbreaker. I may have broken my own heart writing this.
Logan Thomas
The Cowboys’ defense is also excellent and good against tight ends. This year, the most points scored against them by a tight end so far is six. Six points, hell, that might be start worthy points from a tight end this season but let’s shoot for more for that if we can and not less than that. The Commanders passing attack is pure volume based with talented receivers and a so/so quarterback. There are too many nooks and crannies in this English muffin.
Dallas Goedert
Goedert has been pretty good this season. The Jaguars’ defense is excellent. Tight ends have only seven receptions against this defense so far this season. He could be the person to do well against this defense. But, come on, who am I kidding? It’s not going to happen. No tight end has more the three receptions and 45 yards against this defense. No, no, no to Goedert.
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.
