I like to use movie wisdom often. I find quotes that work and talk about them with people I mentor and employees. But I have a special one for you today from the Boiler Room movie.
I know you’re not standing on your front porch with a bag of money waiting for me to call you. But I’m not some 18-year-old selling a cure for AIDS. I’m 46 years old, have 22 years of market experience, and know this business. So please pick up your skirt, grab your balls, and let’s make some money. – Broker
This is what we are doing this week. You are going to play to win, You are going to play with balls, and we are going to win some money.
Let’s move into Week 10 football.
If you are new here, this column can be used to help you handle some sit/start questions you might have, but its primary purpose is to take you through the main DFS slate weekly with players that will make you money and players that will break your heart.
Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:
💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations
💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations
💰 Money Makers
Quarterbacks
Trevor Lawrence
In Week 9, Lawrence had 235 yards, a touchdown passing, and another 53 yards rushing. The game script actually made it so he would pass less. This week the Jaguars will play the Chiefs. The Chiefs give up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. The Chiefs have given up 17 passing touchdowns in the season’s first seven games. Only Malik Willis did not pass for a touchdown against them. Quarterbacks average 270 yards and two touchdowns per game against the Chiefs, even after Willis’ goose egg. Lawrence will likely have to pass to keep the Jaguars in this game. The 50.5 over/under is the highest for the week, not just the main slate, so Vegas also thinks there will be scoring.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Justin Fields
The Bears play the Lions in week 10. The Lions give the third most fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. So, the matchup is excellent. Meanwhile, Fields has had Top 10 quarterback finishes for four straight weeks. Top 5 quarterback finishes in fantasy for three consecutive weeks. And he was the top-scoring quarterback in fantasy in Week 9. He keeps going up. Look for him to have some sort of a day like what Jalen Hurts did to the Lions in week 1, 243 yards passing and 90 yards, and a touchdown rushing. But expect Fields to throw a touchdown or two as well. Bears fans are excited.
$6,500 on DraftKings
$8,300 on Fanduel
Jacoby Brissett
The Dolphins give the most points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks in fantasy. Quarterbacks average 256 yards and two touchdowns against the Dolphins. This is a match and game script play. The matchup is right as everyone throws on the Dolphins. They also have to throw on the Dolphins because the Dolphins’ passing game is lethal. With 48.5 over/under, I would bet the over. I like this even more because it appears David Njoku will be back in the lineup.
$5,400 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel
Other quarterbacks for Week 10
Andy Dalton
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Case Keenum
$5,000 on DraftKings
$6,100 on Fanduel
Patrick Mahomes
$7,900 on DraftKings
$8,500 on Fanduel
Running Backs
Saquon Barkley
The Houston Texans give up 154 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per week to running backs rushing. They also give up and have an average of 4.8 receptions and 33 yards receiving. In the past three games, we have watched multiple touchdowns be scored by running backs against this offense. So in walk Barkley, playing in an offense where he is featured. He has double-digit fantasy scores in every single game this season. Barkley has 779 yards and five touchdowns rushing. But he also has a 16.6% target share and an 80% catch rate in the passing game. He leads the Giants in targets on the season with 35. Barkley is going to ball out this week.
$8,600 on DraftKings
$9,500 on Fanduel
Jeff Wilson Jr.
In week 9 Wilson had 51 yards rushing and 3 receptions for 21 yards and a touchdown receiving. Wilson had 49% of the snaps, which was the most of any Dolphins running back. Wilson also had 3 more touches than Mostert in week 9. The Dolphins are playing the Browns who give up the 4th most points to opposing teams running backs. 9 running backs have double digit scores against Browns in 8 games this season. Things are looking good for Wilson and Mostert in week 10.
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel
Travis Etienne
Etienne can do a little of this and a little of that. The Jaguars play the Chiefs in week 10. The Chiefs give up the 8th most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. They do it by giving up a little of this in 85 yards rushing per game and a little of that in 8 receptions and 56 yards receiving per game to running backs. The Jaguars will do a little of everything to stay in this game, and I like them a lot this week.
$7,100 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel
Other Running backs for Week 10
DeAndre Swift
$6,400 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Khalil Herbert
$5,900 on DraftKings
$5,800 on Fanduel
Josh Jacobs
$7,600 on DraftKings
$8,400 on Fanduel
Wide Receivers
Chris Olave
In 8 games played this season, the Steelers have given up 14 double-digit fantasy games to wide receivers. They give up an average of 14 receptions, 213 yards, and 1.6 touchdowns per game to wide receivers. If you were wondering, yes, this is the most of any team. They are super friendly to wide receivers. So I suggest you take advantage of that and play Olave in Week 10. Olave has a 26.9% target share and a 43.8% air yards share of the Saints’ passing game. He also has double-digit scores in 5 of the last six games. The matchup is right; he has a stranglehold on pass volume. O-Lave Oh oh oh oh. (sung to Volare)
$6,800 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel
Christian Kirk
Kirk has a 24% share of the Jaguars’ targets. He has 43 receptions for 574 yards and five touchdowns on the season. In Week 10, the Jaguars play the Chiefs. The Chiefs give up 13 receptions for 160 yards and a touchdown weekly to opposing teams’ wide receivers. That is the 8th most fantasy point given to opposing teams’ wide receivers. Kirk had nine targets in Week 9 which he turned into eight receptions, 76 yards, and a touchdown. It’s a good fantasy day for the Jaguars pass catchers in Week 10. Captain log, Kirk is to have a big day receiving in Week 10.
$5,900 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel
Donovan Peoples-Jones
The Miami Dolphins give up an average of 156 yards and a touchdown weekly to wide receivers. DPJ has a 19% target share and 25% air yards share in the Browns’ passing game. He had four targets, four receptions, and 81 yards in his last game. I had him as an add-in Untangling the Wire this week, and you should also consider playing him. Amari Cooper is also an excellent play this week against the Dolphins. I bet you never thought anyone would say to play the Browns pass catchers this season, yet here we are.
$4,300 on DraftKings
$5,700 on Fanduel
Other Wide Receivers for Week 10
Jerry Jeudy
$5,700 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel
Darnell Mooney
$5,500 on DraftKings
$6,200 on Fanduel
Stefon Diggs
$8,300 on DraftKings
$9,100 on Fanduel
Tight Ends
Travis Kelce
The matchup against the Jaguars technically isn’t a good one. It just doesn’t matter. Kelce has a 24% target share and a 73% catch rate. He also has 25% of the Chiefs’ air yards. His totals for this season are 57 receptions, 659 yards, and seven touchdowns. He is on a record pace for tight-end scoring in fantasy. You can pay up here for a difference-maker in GPP play. You will feel good about it.
$7,800 on DraftKings
$8,500 on Fanduel
Tyler Higbee
Higbee came into the first five weeks of the season with 48 targets. In the past three weeks, he has had nine targets. Yuck, but in Week 10, the Rams play the Cardinals. The Cardinals give up the second most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Higbee plays 80% of the snaps and still has a 20% target share for the Rams on the season. This is a matchup play this week for Higbee, and let’s face it, that is what most of us are doing every week at tight end.
$3,600 on DraftKings
$6,000 on Fanduel
Other Tight Ends for Week 10
Cole Kmet
$3,400 on DraftKings
$5,300 on Fanduel
Evan Engram
$3,300 on DraftKings
$4,900 on Fanduel
Davis Njoku
$4,100 on DraftKings
$5,800 on Fanduel
💔Heart Breakers
Quarter Backs
Kirk Cousins
The Vikings play the Bills in Week 10. Only Patrick Mahomes has scored more than 16 fantasy points against the Bills’ defense this season. Cousins has been mediocre at best on the season, going up and down like a roller coaster. This week is down, probably way down, like 11 points. I don’t think Kirk will dance on a plane after this game. Although, I think the Vikings will win it if Allen is out.
Dak Prescott
The Cowboys play the Packers in Week 10. The Packers pretty much suck, but quarterbacks have not scored more than 19 fantasy points against this Packers’ defense in any game yet this season. It could be because, typically, teams are up on the Packers and running the ball. I can see the Cowboys doing that this week. Play him for a season-long team and avoid Dak in DFS as a game script victim.
Ryan Tannehill
If you are playing a Titans quarterback, you are either desperate in a 2 QB league or stupid. The Titans like to run the ball relentlessly. The Titans also play the Broncos in week 10. The Broncos give the least amount of fantasy points to opposing teams’ quarterbacks. Only two quarterbacks this season have double-digit fantasy days against the Broncos, and no one has scored over 17.5 points. To top it off, the Titans have not had either quarterback score over 19 points this season. YUCK (Yes, all caps).
Running Backs
Aaron Jones
If you have Aaron Jones in season long, you are playing him. I am playing him. In DFS, let’s remove him as an option right now, OK? The Packers play the Cowboys in week 10. The Cowboys give up the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Only four times this season have the Cowboys given up double-digit fantasy scores to a running back. Jones will need a touchdown to do it.
Dameon Pierce
This is a DFS heartbreaker as well. Suppose you have him play him season-long. He has six straight games with double-digit fantasy scores. The Texans play the Giants in week 10. The Giants give up the 7th fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. So I do think Pierce will get a double-digit fantasy score in Week 10. Unfortunately, I also think it’s highly likely that it’s only about 10 points, which makes you not want to pay up for him in DFS.
James Conner
The Rams have only given up four double-digit fantasy scores to running backs this season. Conner only has one double-digit fantasy score on the season. Believe it or not, I am playing him for season-long on a team. I have no choice. In DFS, this is all avoided. In Week 3, the Rams kept Conner in check, allowing him only 39 yards rushing and three receptions for 18 yards receiving. I had to get the buckets out for this one. I’ll be right back after I brush my teeth.
Wide Receivers
Devante Adams
I know it is hard to believe, but the Colts do something well this season. They defend wide receivers well. Or, at the very least wide receivers don’t score many points against the Colts. This season, only five wide receivers have had double-digit fantasy scores against the Colts. In season-long, you are playing Adams. In DFS, I am not paying up for him. No way, not doing it. The Raiders are messy.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Just writing this as a heartbreaker is making me cry. I love the sun god. Until last week, the Bears were a top team against wide receivers. Then Tyreek Hill and Jalen Waddle went nuts on them. Unfortunately, the Lions are not the Dolphins. This should be a tough matchup for a beat-up St. Brown. I am playing him everywhere in season-long. Avoid him at all costs in DFS. I need to get a tissue, sniff, sniff.
CeeDee Lamb
You may have noticed I have Dak as a heartbreaker as well. The Packers defend the pass well. I like the Cowboys to run on the Packers this week. This feels like a low-scoring grinding game. Lamb has been up and down over and under double-digit scores the past five weeks. This week is the down week.
Tight Ends
Pat Freiermuth
Only one tight end has scored a touchdown against the Saints’ defense this season. This season, not a single tight end has a double-digit score against the Saints. As a result, the Saints give up the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Sit him. Don’t even think about this one too hard. Sit him.
Dalton Schultz
The Packers’ defense is good against the pass. As you can see, yet another Cowboys pass catcher is breaking hearts this week, and it’s not because they are handsome. This is another defense that has not given up a double-digit fantasy day to a tight end all season. This week Schultz knows nothing, NOTHING!
Zach Ertz
Zach Ertz is one of the most consistent tight ends in fantasy. In Week 10, he is playing against the Rams ad their defense that gives up the 5th fewest fantasy points to tight ends on the season. The Cardinals played the Rams in Week 3, and Ertz had a down game for him with only six receptions for 45 yards. With the way tight ends are this season, that might make him a money-maker.
Good luck this week!
Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.
