“What’s the Chance?”
In Dynasty, trades are my heart and soul. It’s all about restructuring your team in various situations. When trades are made, everyone quickly judges “who ‘won’ right away?” It can take a year or two to reveal who actually “profited” the most from the transaction.
I made this trade in a 2023 rookie draft. Still, there are principles for cutting deals for elite players. The value was there then, but we can examine how these trades aged over the previous year and project where the values may land in future years.
Setting the Stage: League Format & Roster Construction
For context, here are some league basics. The league has 12 teams: SuperFlex (SF), half-PPR, tight end premium (TEP/1.5 PPR), and start 11, with a 40-man roster that includes five taxi spots and three injured reserve slots. The league doesn’t have an official TE spot in the starting roster, but you can start up to four TEs in the flex spots. This setting allows you to lean into the premium scoring as much or as little as you choose. Our startup was in 2022, and I drafted a relatively competitive, productive struggle build.
My roster is super young and built around star quarterbacks and wide receivers. With this foundation, I could kick the can into next year’s draft class, trade for proven players, or take a more balanced approach. I entered the rookie draft with a very flexible mindset and had picks 1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.10, 4.12, and 5.06 at my disposal. My QBs consisted of Justin Herbert, Tua Tagovailoa, and Geno Smith. With my current roster construction, my initial targets for the 1.06 were Jaxon Smith-Njigba or Jahmyr Gibbs.
Working the Phones
Drafting a quarterback is not really on my radar in this draft with my current trio of quarterbacks; however, in an SF format, I am always open to upgrading at the most crucial position on my roster, and I begin the draft trying to put myself in a position to take advantage of falling values.
After Bijan Robison and Bryce Young are selected 1.01 and 1.02, I send offers to acquire the 1.03 in hopes of drafting Anthony Richardson. Unfortunately, we cannot get a deal done, but he trades the pick to another manager. Like any good dynasty diehard, I shift focus to the new owner of the 1.03 to broker a deal. Boom! The deal for Richardson came together, and my strategy shifted while continuing to work in the draft room. There are tons of conversations in the league chat. C.J. Stroud and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are the top assets available. I’m getting offers for my 1.06, and the lines are poppin’. I will slow the pace, jump on the motorcycle for a drive, and let the pick marinate.
The Trade
Fresh off a fun ride, I go back to work. The team behind me with the 1.07 has a quarterback room desperately needing positional addition (Stafford and Zach Wilson). We both know I have the leverage here, and he needs Stroud badly. He also has Ja’Marr Chase, whom I have wanted since our startup draft. He has repeatedly told me, “Chase is off limits.” Examining his immediate need at QB, I pepper him with offers for Chase. Before you knew it, we had a deal. The “untradeable” just became traded. Toney was the final cherry on top to make it happen. I know it seems ridiculous now.
- Send: 2023 1.06, 2024 1st (1.06), 2024 3rd (3.02), Kadarius Toney.
- Receive: Ja’Marr Chase and Rashaad Penny.
At the time, this felt like a massive “win” for me as the bust rate for rookie quarterbacks was a legitimate concern, and Chase was a proven elite wide receiver. However, time can also bring clarity. Here in 2024, I would be in fantastic shape had I just picked Stroud and kept it moving. I don’t believe we knew just how much of a stud Stroud would be in Year One. This transaction is a “win” for both teams, which is how it should be!
Lessons Learned
It pays to stay flexible, open-minded, and plugged into the draft. Even if you don’t have any picks, look for falling values, tier breaks, and moments to find leverage.
Here are some other tips that helped me accomplish the deals I made that can help you as you navigate your upcoming rookie drafts:
- Know your league-mates’ rosters and team needs.
- Understand how to leverage the live draft pick to your advantage: pinpoint the best asset available and be willing to sell to the highest bidder.
- Be a good trade partner year-round; don’t send egregious offers. *Most important*
- Don’t fish in “overfished” waters. If a team has recently made a lot of trades, there’s a chance they are laying low. Or, if a team is thin at a specific position you want to upgrade, it’s probably best to “fish” elsewhere.
- Know your build/process and stick to it.
- Only trade to create a need if you are confident you can address the need.
- If you aren’t competing, do NOT spend capital on veterans, specifically older RBs.
In the words of my friend BigCo from the FFDynasty, “If you’re not trading in dynasty, you’re doing it wrong.” I confidently stand by my buddy’s sentiment, too.
What’s to Come for the Process
More trade analysis will follow for recent deals in the 2024 off-season and rookie drafts. In the following article, I’ll talk about making a move for the 1.01 in Superflex and how I did that. Follow me and The Undroppables on X to look for the next drop in the series.
