The urge to tinker is strong, particularly after Week 1. We got a few things right, but there was so much we were wrong about.
Indeed, we must react to the new reality, but how much of Week 1 was “real.” You may have thought your scores were low. You are not alone.
THE MACRO
Compared to Week 1 last year:
- Play Volume was down 15%!
- Pass Volume was down 18.5%!
- Run Volume was down 11%
- The Pass to Rush Ratio went from 1.104 to 1.008.
So it seems like RBs smashed, but the run volume was down. At least in Week 1, the ratio got closer to even than we’ve grown accustomed to.
Is this some cataclysmic change in the way fantasy should be played? Are our WR-heavy teams dust? Should we tinker?!
What seems more likely to me is a) the preseason has been condensed and, as a result, b) passing games aren’t where teams want them to be yet, so c) teams relied on their running games in Week 1 more than we’ve grown accustomed to.
Of course, offenses may be adapting to the increased number of 2-high looks and lighter linebackers and have determined that running the football more frequently is the better way to play against modern defenses.
I, for one, do not think that’s the case. After all, we didn’t see any RBs go in Round 1 of the 2024 draft. Then again, there was a lot more money spent on free-agent RBs this offseason than I can remember in recent history. Maybe it was just a weak RB class.
Stay open-minded and prepared to make probabilistic bets in the new reality, but make sure that reality is real.
Bigger Picture — Effective passing games have proven to be more efficient overall. I’m zooming out and expecting the bigger-picture trend to continue.
Prepare to pivot! You must guess right to win in this game — not just on players but leaguewide trends — because that dictates roster construction and capital allocation. So, if we’re making educated guesses, part of that education is noting that in Week 1, 2024, the pass/run ratio was near even. It’s not a trend yet, but keep an eye on it.
THE MICRO
(Due to the last section, I want to focus on running backs this week. The WR stats are generally flukier than RBs in a one-week sample, and I want to see more.)
Bucky Irving had nine carries for 62 yards, along with three catches. I’m a Rachaad White Truther, through and through, but there’s no denying Bucky looked good. Most of this production came when the Bucs had this game well under control, but it was hard not to notice his short area burst and even harder not to see him carving out a more significant share of the rushing workload.
Jerome Ford’s six receptions were also noteworthy. Were they a function of an inept QB and offense? Yes. Do I care? No. It feels like an excellent play until Chubb returns (or until they hand Jameis the keys to the offense).
Jaleel McLaughlin out-carried Javonte Williams. An unexpected development. He also had three receptions (and a lost fumble). I’m not prepared to call him the 1A yet, but I am interested.
Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears may be “interchangeable,” but Pollard did the lion’s share of the work and looked good doing it. I sadly expect this to continue.
The same goes for Zack Moss and Chase Brown. (still sad)
Ty Chandler managed to get a decent amount of work, even with Aaron Jones in town. Eight carries and three receptions can pay the bills in the flex, particularly in deeper leagues. Flex appeal with contingent upside will always get my attention.
Tank Bigsby looked like a different guy. I don’t know how much we can rely on him week to week, but the contingency-based upside is there now.
The Miami backfield was interesting. Mostert looked… 32 years old. I did not expect to see that much of Jeff Wilson, but he looked like his reliable self. Both Mostert and De’Von Achane dealt with some in-game injuries (though both returned to action).
What tantalized me most, though, regarding running backs, was Achane’s usage. He had seven receptions and was often split out wide or playing from the slot with Mostert on the field! We are too low on him if he continues to be an explosive RB/WR hybrid. I took him in both startups I did this offseason and got him on 13% of my BBM teams – which feels light. Permission to get excited granted!
I’ll be back next week and ready to talk WR. Good luck this weekend, stay open-minded, and follow me on Twitter @Dynasty_JoeFF.
