Every NFL season there are a number of players that gain massive hype and shoot up Fantasy Football draft boards, only to disappoint because their expectations were too high. Conversely, there’s a similar group of players who get pushed down in fantasy drafts and consequently become post-hype sleepers and late-round steals. My goal of this series is to look past the popular sentiment, share some statistics, and offer a contrarian opinion for you to consider before drafting a player too early or writing someone off too soon before your Fantasy Football drafts.
The Subject: Dalvin Cook – RB, Minnesota Vikings
Dalvin Cook was the early round steal of 2019 fantasy football drafts. If you took the plunge with him, it was because you knew he had dual-threat upside if he could stay healthy all season. While he didn’t make it a full season, 14 games of elite production still warrants the label of a Breakout year. Going into 2020, the question is this: Can Cook repeat on the success he had last year, and is his production worth the risk? Let’s discuss.
Per fantasydata.com, Dalvin Cook was the RB6 in 2019, with 292.4 PPR points. He outscored every wide receiver other than Michael Thomas.
A running back that can catch 50+ passes is nothing to fuck with. Much like Christian McCaffrey had said before his big payday, they should be seen as offensive weapons, not just running backs. For this reason, he is currently in the discussion as a top pick in the first round of 2020 fantasy drafts. In fact, the only reason Cook wasn’t the RB2 last season can be largely attributed to the fact that he only played 14 games, which brings us to my next point…
Per The Undoppables contributor Dr. Edwin Porras, SPT, Dalvin Cook is “…statistically one of the biggest injury risks among top-five fantasy running backs in the league. Theoretically, his chances of another ACL tear are approximately 20%. His chance of dislocation for one shoulder is 13%-26% and 40%-50% for the other.
You can read Dr. Porras’ full article on our site here, in which he dives deep into Cook’s injury history. From my own high school experience of dislocating/subluxating my shoulder on multiple occasions both on and off the football field, I was recommended by medical professionals to sit out the following week’s game to allow for recovery. It can be ‘toughed out’ per se, but as Dr. Porras points out, there’s always risk of re-injury, and that’s with or without surgery (disclaimer: completely non-medical and yet I believe logical take from myself here).
The best case scenario is he plays a full season, but given Cook’s injury history and the probability of these theoretical re-injuries, it’s not insane to project that Cook will miss games. If I’m being generous and say each shoulder injury would lead to only one missed game, combined with the 20% probability of him having another ACL tear would cause him to miss an entire season, I believe we can project Cook to miss 3.845 games in a 16 games season (.2*16 + .195*1 + .45*1 = 3.845). I don’t profess to be a master statistician either, so I welcome someone to challenge my math here, but if we are looking at the impact of multiple injuries on a player before the season even starts, 12 games seems to be a reasonable projection. This projection would of course change and reduce the farther along we are in the season with a healthy Dalvin Cook.
One way we see a full season from Dalvin Cook is if his workload is reduced.
Vikings Head Coach Mike Zimmer made it clear last season he does not care about your fantasy team. He did not care much about getting his wide receiver play makers Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs the ball as much as he did in 2018, and even with Kevin Stefanski moving on from Minneapolis, it seems little will change with Gary Kubiak moving from offensive advisor to offensive coordinator. The Vikings plan to be a ground and pound team and control the tempo of games. With that philosophy comes the need for a rotation in the backfield, and keeping guys fresh.
In 2019, second-string running back and third-round draft pick Alexander Mattison showed flashes of what he could do in the NFL, totaling 100 carries for 462 (4.62 YPC) and 10 receptions for 82 yards. Mattison is not going to be a world-beater for the Vikings, but could he have gained trust from Kubiak and earned more reps for himself going into 2020, and could that cap Cook’s ceiling further? My thought is yes.
Verdict
As I mentioned with Christian McCaffrey, the combination of talent and opportunity Dalvin Cook brings to the table makes him a locked and loaded 1st round pick in fantasy drafts. However, before you go chalk and select Cook at 1.04 or 1.05 overall, make sure you’ve appropriately assessed the risk in Cook compared to other players in the top tier. If the projected points he provides outweighs the injury risk for you, then by all means take him. For me, I want my 1st round pick to be available every week of the year, so I’m considering Michael Thomas in this slot.
