While most Fantasy Football degenerates will scoff at this headline and turn the other way, both hardcore and casual players alike should heed these words: team defense and kicker score points in fantasy football. They matter. Plus, the most dramatic scenario in fantasy football has to be when your team is going into Monday Night Football down 6 points with only your kicker remaining. Like it or not, those are the moments fantasy gamers live for.
While it’s important to focus on the rest of your lineup first, choosing the wrong defense can ruin your week. On the flip side, identifying the best defense of the year before they burst onto the scene can potentially win you weeks or even guarantee your ticket to the fantasy playoffs. There are certainly ways to create advantages for yourself at the defense and kicker positions, so I’d like to share a few tips and tricks I follow to gain a competitive edge.
Don’t draft last year’s #1 Defense
Just because I am advocating for defenses and kickers doesn’t mean I think you should draft them in single-digit rounds. There are too many sleepers and late-round breakouts sitting at the bottom of the draft board for you to take a defense before adding bench depth at RB and WR to your roster.
Particularly in 2020, I am avoiding the New England Patriots defense 10 times out of 10 in 2020. Yes, they were THE defense to own last season, but defenses almost never repeat their league-leading fantasy performance year over year. Combine that with the fact that a significant chunk of Patriots defenders have opted out of this season, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.
Schedule matters a TON
If there’s one way to decide which defense to play over another, target the team facing the putrid offense. Last year, would you rather have the Ravens defense against the Chiefs, or the Bills defense against the hapless Bengals? Identifying the worst offenses in the NFL and picking up the defenses that play against those offenses is a fairly simple task. It takes little work to gain that extra edge.
You can use this principle to stream defenses easily, and even prepare for a week in advance if you feel so inclined to roster two defenses at once. By the way, two defenses that have seemingly cupcake schedules early in 2020: the Bills and the Colts.
If you want to set it and forget it, look at Bye Weeks
You can certainly roll the same Defense and Kicker out there every week, but if you do it, lock in a defense that is both 1) good, and 2) playing with a late bye week. By the time your defense and kicker have their bye come along, you’ve already destroyed the competition and have a good idea of what your core roster is. You may then decide to even hold your starting defense/kicker through their bye week and save them for your championship run. (I’m sure most of The Undroppables wouldn’t recommend this, but in home leagues it’s completely fine.)
Good Defenses with Week 10 or later bye weeks: Bears, Bills, Chargers, 49ers
Good Kickers with Week 10 or later bye weeks: Greg Zuerline (Cowboys), Harrison Butker (Chiefs), Robbie Gould (49ers)
Use over/under point totals to make single-week decisions
If you can’t find a juicy matchup or a consistent kicker on the waiver wire and are an indecisive mess when setting a lineup (like me), looking at sportsbook numbers is one way to make a more informed decision.
Oddsmakers benefit from individuals gambling (and losing) money on various sporting events. In the case of an over/under sports bet, the total number of projected points scored has to be reasonable enough for the public to bet on both sides. If enough of the public bets one side more heavily, the over/under is adjusted up to a specific deadline. Higher over/under betting lines mean higher implied point totals for the teams facing each other.
Based on Week 1 lines, Texans @ Chiefs, Seahawks @ Falcons, and Cowboys @ Rams are projected to be the highest scoring games of the week. Harrison Butker and Greg Zuerline may already be on another roster, but if you drafted Matt Gay (who is no longer on the Buccaneers) or a kicker from your favorite team who simply isn’t as good of a play, you’ll always have other options available. I think Younghoe Koo for the Falcons is a particularly spicy option in Week 1 and beyond.
