Introducing the Fantasy Hot Seat
Every year, fantasy football managers begin their draft research sometime in the middle of the offseason, often going right up until kickoff of the season’s first game. They put themselves in the hot seat a bit come draft day. After the draft, fantasy football managers also hold on to someone longer than they should. It happens whenever a player with high expectations heading into the season fails to meet those expectations early on.
We call this fantasy hoarding. Fantasy hoarding is bound to get every single manager who suffers from it in trouble. At The Undroppables, we understand this, and while we specialize in understanding who not to cut, it’s even more important to know who to cut if it comes down to it, and not holding on until it’s too late.
Fantasy Hot Seat will be a new weekly column that will outline the guys hanging onto our rosters by a thread week after week. Who can you trust? With whom should you cut ties? With that said, let’s look at some guys you should handle with care.
Clyde Edwards-Helarie – RB, Kansas City Chiefs
There are plenty of times where you will see analysts claim a player is a league-winner. But a player can also be a league-loser, specifically dependent on their ADP. There are zero reasons to question CEH’s talent, ability, or opportunity heading into the 2020 season. Being drafted in the first round for the defending world champions with a top-5 ranked offense (according to PFF.com), you’ll find it very hard to find a better situation. However, an RB Model created by Ryan Keeney at Breakoutfinder.com suggests that he may find it a bit difficult to get going despite the opportunity.
FANTASY UPDATE: @Chiefs RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams could split the workload Week 1 vs @HoustonTexans pic.twitter.com/eQiiXUPbSZ
— The Fantasy Source 🏈 (@FantasySource_) September 3, 2020
Now, neither Keeney nor I am saying that CEH won’t be a solid NFL RB or won’t put up numbers, but he may fall a little shy of breakout status. If we take a look at Brian O’Connell’s tweet regarding what it takes to be an RB1 in fantasy football, we can see that CEH has an uphill climb. According to Brian, 84% of RB1s since 1991 have had at least 271 touches, with 96% of them having at least 214. Since 2010, Andy Reid led offenses have produced an RB compiling at least 214 touches seven times. LeSean McCoy (3), Jamaal Charles (2), Spencer Ware (1), and Kareem Hunt (1). McCoy, Hunt, and Charles all had multiple college seasons of at least 174 touches. CEH reached that mark just once in his final collegiate season.
Despite a career of RB-fed offenses under Andy Reid, the Chiefs offense of today is significantly different compared to the past. With Patrick Mahomes at starting QB, no Chiefs running back has had more than 205 touches in a season. CEH is likely going to put up some pretty decent numbers in the Chiefs offense. He’s more talented than either of Darrell Williams or Darwin Thompson behind them and is sure to get most of the touches in Kansas City. But how much is the majority going to be? The last nail in the coffin of CEH’s hot seat may come from another source of analytics. While Brian’s analysis shows 96% of RB1s had at least 214 touches, only 1 RB had less than 224 touches in 2020 and finished in the top-20 of fantasy RBs: James White. I find it hard to believe CEH can be an RB1 without getting the number of touches needed. And if that is the case with his current ADP of 1.06, you may have already put yourself on the hot seat.
A.J. Brown – WR, Tennessee Titans
If you’ve been following anything I’ve said this offseason, it has stemmed mostly from Titans’ fantasy production of offensive weapons. From the pretty insane argument that Darrynton Evans could outscore Derrick Henry in fantasy production, to my sheer disdain for A.J. Brown truthers, at least one of these has to be correct, right? According to FF Calculator, A.J. Brown was a bit of an anomaly in 2019, having been mostly undrafted in PPR. He finished as the WR21, stemming from his WR7 finish over the final eight weeks of the season. For me, many things factor into the significant jump that saw Brown get there after finishing as WR75 in the first nine weeks of the season.
First, let’s take a look at how Derrick Henry’s production enabled Brown to succeed. From Week 10 on, Henry was the 3rd-best running back in fantasy, compiling more than half of his total fantasy production throughout just five games. There’s no surprise that as teams tried (and failed) to stop Henry, it left more open space for receivers behind him. Now let’s take a look at another aspect of why Brown played so well: strength of schedule. The Titans had a very favorable second-half schedule, facing some of the league’s worst defenses down the stretch. The Titans had seven games after Week 10, and only one of them ranked inside the top-10 according to PFF defensive rank; none of them ranked inside the top-13 in coverage ranking.
The Titans schedule is significantly stiffer in 2020, playing six games against top-10 defenses and three more games against teams in the top-13. Today, Brown is drafted as WR18 with expectations of being a WR1 in fantasy football. Those expectations seem a bit high for me, as several players drafted behind him have significantly higher upside. You patience with Brown should be thin with him entering his second year and quickly falling victim to the sophomore slump.
Aaron Rodgers – QB, Green Bay Packers
The clock seems to be ticking on Aaron Rodgers, but it might not be for much longer. With the drafting of Jordan Love and the lack of air support around him, the Packers might be telling us something. Rodgers will remain the starting QB in Green Bay for at least this year and maybe even next year. However, over the last few seasons, Rodgers has gone from a bona fide top-3 fantasy QB to a borderline QB1.
From 2010-2016, Rodgers finished in the top-3 five times with an 8th place finish and an injury-riddled season the other two. Rodgers would only play seven games in 2017; however, he finished with less than 30 touchdowns in consecutive years for the first time. Due to the lack of scoring, Rodgers dropped outside the top 10 for the first time in a season where he was completely healthy. Rodger’s weapons didn’t get any better, but he is still drafted as one of the league’s top guys. According to FF Calculator, Rodgers is the 10th QB taken in redrafts. Watch out for continued underwhelming performances.
Odell Beckham Jr. – WR, Cleveland Browns
A lot of players are on the hot seat in Cleveland, including Odell’s QB Baker Mayfield. However, he finished as WR25 (13 spots behind his teammate Jarvis Landry) in 2019. Despite the poor performances, his ADP remains in the top 12 (WR11, according to FF Calculator). Since entering the league, Beckham Jr. has been one of the more captivating players. Whether it was from his play on the field or his fiery behavior off the field (who fights a kicking net?), Odell was often top of mind discussing the top receivers in the league. After three straight years finishing within the top-7, Beckham hasn’t come close to the top-10, finishing as WR17 in 2018 and WR25 last year.
It seems as if fantasy football players are hoarding or holding on to the Odell Beckham of the past, and you may need to rethink that strategy. The Browns are on the hot seat in general this year. The Browns added a lot to the offensive side of the ball, including a new head coach, updated players at both tackle spots, and implementing a game plan that was previously ranked 7th last year according to PFF (Kevin Stefanski, Minnesota Vikings). If Beckham isn’t able to turn it around quickly, drafting him as WR11 may have more negative consequences than positive ones.
