Week 2 is here, fam let’s try to “break a slate”! We have cash advice this week as well so if you are here for cash, scroll down.
First, I would like to review Week 1 for accountability:
Chris Herndon scored 9.3 points last week, which was good for 3x value. That made Herndon a good cash play, but not for tournaments. I’m off Herndon for this week as he is the only player the 49ers need to shut down and Fred Warner is one of the best cover LBs in the league.
Jack Doyle got hurt last week and most assuredly would have hit for a decent play but those are the breaks, no pun intended.
T.J. Hockensen was my best TE value play last week hitting 16.6 Draft Kings points for 4x value.
Antonio Gibson didn’t get the goal line touches so he was a bad play last week. He will eventually get it together.
Boston Scott got hurt but he wasn’t trending towards a good game. This was my fault for not recognizing how bad the Eagles offensive line is.
Marlon Mack… RIP to my Colt. It appears his career may be done. This would have been a smash play, he was cheaper than Jonathan Taylor and it didn’t look like JT was going to get much work at all. Everyone played JT, making the Mack play an excellent process, bad result.
Raheem Mostert was underpriced, not very many people played him, and he SMASHED. He won me some money.
Chris Conley was hyped by all the camp and beat writer reports saying that he was the WR2 over Keenan Cole, but Cole out-snapped Conley and should have been the play. Week 1 can be tough, especially when depth charts LIE.
Jamison Crowder was another low owned play in tournaments and he absolutely crushed this slate and won me a few bucks. Crowder has now owned the Bills in their last 3 meetings, remember that later this year.
DeSean Jackson was #2 in air yards last week so a slate breaking potential was there, especially priced at $3900.
Kendrick Bourne had great red zone usage (which I loved) and he got a great target in the end zone late in the game that he couldn’t come down with. If he makes that catch, he makes value and then some.
With quarterbacks, I took some low priced risks to afford to pay up at other positions and two out of three paid off. Mitchell Trubisky and Gardner Minshew were both great plays, while Tyrod Taylor definitely was not (he was SO cheap I couldn’t help myself).
OK, on to Week 2:
To win a GPP tournament in Draft Kings, it has become more and more apparent as the years go on that you have to have a nice “stack” where you pair a QB with one or two of his targets and “run it back” with a player or two on another team. You can completely stack players from one game but this rarely works (when it does you can hit big so I suggest trying it every once and awhile). I suggested some stacks last week and they were hit and miss like all of this is (winning a daily tourney is like hitting lightning in a bottle) but I missed the stack that won the millionaire maker. This stack ALSO got 2nd place for $250k AND 3rd for $100k! They all had Aaron Rodgers with Davante Adams, Alan Lazard, and ran it back with Adam Thielen. They also all had Josh Jacobs and Calvin Ridley. I haven’t heard any of the “shark” expert DFS guys talk about this at all and I think it’s because this stack is a play again and they want it for themselves! We are going to make one tweak to it though.
Running Back
Nyheim Hines – $5,300
Honestly, I was skeptical that Hines would be the new Austin Ekeler but he clearly is and his opportunity is through the roof with Mack going down. He caught all 8 of his targets and got work running between tackles as well and looked damn good. It is VERY important to note that he was schemed to get the ball before Mack went down and most of his passing work were not “check downs” they were designed plays. Hines is a lock for 15+ touches going forward.
Jonathan Taylor – $5,700
I can’t say enough about the most productive back in NCAA history and the highest graded RB on ProFootballFocus.com since they started grading. Taylor caught all 6 of his targets and is a lock for 18+ overall touches.
Ronald Jones – $5,200
This pricing is silly as RoJo got 19 touches last week and looked good against a stout Saints defense. Today he gets a historically bad defense in the Panthers and Tom could lean on the run more with Godwin likely out. Fournette is not ready with 14 days of the playbook underneath his belt.
Chase Edmonds – $4,600
This is a riskier play but Edmonds got more passing work than Drake last week and made the most out of his 9 touches. This Washington front is no joke and I see an uptick in his targets this week with 13-15 expected touches. If he scores again, he will hit and I don’t see many people playing him.
Benny Snell – $4,500
People won’t play him because Conner is back but I have zero faith in James Conner and Ian Rappaport reports this morning that he and Snell will split touches. Snell lost 15 pounds and it shows and he got a whopping 3.23 yards AFTER contact last week.
Wide Receiver
Quintez Cephus – $3,800
I do not think his 10 targets was an outlier last week. I’ve been keeping my eye on this kid and fellow Undroppables analyst Jax Falcone wrote up Cephus in a recent tweet. This game has big-time shootout potential and Kenny Golladay is out again.
Mike Williams – $4,200
Williams did not look hobbled at all last week from his training camp injury and got a huge target share of 9. This game could get out of hand quick and Williams had a great game the last time the Chiefs and Chargers met.
Parris Campbell – $4,500
As Hines looks like the next Ekeler, Campbell looks like the next Keenan Allen. People kind of wrote him off after a litany of injuries and a couple of surgeries but he is exactly what Philip Rivers needs: a speedy WR with good hands that can get open underneath and make things happen in the open field. Campbell had 9 targets last week and went 6/71 and the Vikings secondary is bad.
T.Y. Hilton – $5,700
A great “pivot” off of Campbell is Hilton and I know I’m writing up a lot of my Colts this week but they are in such a great spot. Hilton has broken daily tournament slates wide open in the past and I have learned to only play him at home. This game has sneaky shoot out potential.
Darius Slayton – $5,000
Slayton was in many tournament-winning lineups last week with his 9 targets and over 30 Draft Kings points. I think this pricing is ridiculous as Slayton draws the Bears who just allowed Matt Stafford to pass for 300 yards. Daniel Jones is locked in on Slayton and the deep play potential is immense.
Diontae Johnson – $4,500
Shout out to fellow analyst Michelle Magdziuk who was the only other person on Diontae as early as me last summer. Johnson saw a whopping 10 targets last week and he and JuJu face two rookie corners this week with AJ Bouye out. Oh, and Ben at home is a thing.
Tight End
Logan Thomas – $3,600
Another shout out to fellow Undroppables analyst and Unscripted co-host Jake Besong for turning me on to Thomas and getting him on my sleeper list this year. Thomas gets the Cardinals defense that was hashtag horrible against the position last year and could be Dwayne Haskins second target to Terry McLaurin and Thomas got 8 targets last week and scored. This will be a popular play but the savings at this position cannot be ignored.
Jordan Reed – $2,600
Reed looks healthy for the time being and my old adage was if he is healthy and starting, you play him. He won’t need to do much at this price to make value and with all of the injuries to the 49ers pass catchers including most notably starting TE George Kittle, who else is GQ Jimmy going to throw to?
Dallas Goedert – $5,000
Even though he is a little pricier than my normal TE value play I have to mention Goedert because his pricing will continue to be low with Ertz still out there. The news is that Ertz may draw a lot of Jalen Ramsey this week oh and Goedert has 31 targets for 356 yards and two TDs in his last three games and no one is talking about it.
Jonnu Smith – $4,200
Smith has been on my sleeper list all summer and did a fantastic Week 1 with his 7 targets and returned immense value for those who played him. He draws another nice matchup this week and with AJ Brown ruled out and Corey Davis hobbled this week in practice who else is Tannehill going to throw to?
Quarterback
Honestly, I do not think this is the week to pay down at this position but I will play Kirk Cousins and Philip Rivers, both priced at $5,900 in a few variations of a game stack. This week you have Kyler Murray priced way too low at $6,100 and no other QB has more fantasy points against a single team than Josh Allen ($6,700) does against Miami and the Dolphins just let Cam Newton run all over them.
There are several good QB plays this week, I recommend playing around with your line ups for the best fit and stacking the games.
Bonus – Suggested Stacks
Everyone will be all over the Cowboys/Falcons game. Play around with both sides and try to be creative. All three WRs on both sides are good plays.
Ben Roethlisberger’s ($6,300) arm looked great last week and now he gets TWO rookie CBs at home? Giddy ‘up! Play Ben with JuJu and Diontae and run it back on the other side with Jerry Jeudy ($4,900) and/or Noah Fant ($4,400)
Aaron Rodgers ($6,900) and Davante Adams (17 targets last week!) is the stack here and not Lazard. Marques Valdez-Scantling who had more targets and way more air yards last week. Run it back with Quintez Cephus, T.J. Hockensen, and Marvin Jones who had 8 targets last week as well.
Philip Rivers ($5,900) Honestly you could stack this entire game with Rivers, both backs, Parris Campbell and TY Hilton, and run it back with Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. Play around with variations in this one.
Cash Play
I’m excited that my buddy that started Paulie’s Sleepers back in the day, Jackson Mears, is back with me. Jackson is a sharp DFS cash game player and was actually the #1 Yahoo Nascar DFS player in the world in 2017. Quite an accomplishment!
The suggested line up below is for head to head and 50/50 cash games where you double your money if you place in the top half of the field.
This is how I should play DFS but I always want to go for the jugular! In 2018, when we tracked all of Jacksons cash plays for 16 weeks, he had a 67% success rate. The line up below has two holes with and an average of $5,600 to spend at each position so play around with it and make it your own! As a matter of fact, feel free to sub out any play at any time these are your line ups!
And remember, never gamble with the lunch money this article is for entertainment purposes only.
