Hoarding is a global pandemic that touches the lives of many. Not just the person involved, but also their families. The same thing is happening in fantasy football every single week. Fantasy managers are continuing to hoard players that don’t deserve their love and admiration. They certainly cause health and safety issues, and ultimately they cause you to lose your fantasy games (and even attract fleas.) The Fantasy Hot Seat is designed to help you realize which players are no longer worth hoarding on your roster.
Hot Seat Report Card
Let’s take a look at how we are doing with our hot seat so far. We will define the following: “The Hot Seat” will be players who we spoke about that continue to stink it up. “The Warm Seat” will be players who have been so-so up until this point. Maybe they lack consistency, perhaps they had a big game and then a dud. They are neither Hot nor Cold and should probably remain on your team, but you could make a case for trading them too. Finally, Cold Seat will be players we spoke about that have turned it around and look like mainstays on your weekly rosters.
Baker Mayfield: Hot Seat
Baker produced well in Week 2, scoring twice and being very efficient. However, 219 yards against a bad defense is just not getting it done. He finished as QB20 in Week 2 and is still not startable yet.
Rob Gronkowski: Hot Seat
Gronk received just one target with 0 receptions last Sunday against the Panthers and saw only 42 snaps, 23 of which he was required to block.
Zach Ertz: Hot Seat
Ertz is getting the targets (seven per game), caught more passes, and had more yards in Week 2 vs. Week 1, but didn’t find the end zone in Week 2. While players aren’t going to score every week, we’re going to need more than TE21 for us to start him comfortably.
Cooper Kupp: Hot Seat
Kupp caught five passes for 81 yards on Sunday vs. the Eagles, but his teammates Robert Woods and Tyler Higbee found the end zone. We mentioned last week that Kupp seems to be touchdown dependent, and that concerns me moving forward.
OBJ: Warm Seat
OBJ shined on Thursday, beating a bad secondary a couple of times to four receptions for 74 yards and a score. We need him to do it more consistently to be an every-week starter, but he looked good.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Warm Seat
After being RB1 in week one, CEH finished as RB23 in Week 2. A good portion of that was due to the Chiefs having to play from behind, so he didn’t get the same number of attempts. However, going from 25 attempts to 10 is a significant drop-off and one we need to watch.
A.J. Brown: Warm Seat
Brown had five catches for 39 yards in Week 1 and was injured in Week 2. His bone bruise may take him out of action this week, so I will give him the benefit of the doubt and put him on the warm seat for now, although eight fantasy points and WR83 is not a good look for someone drafted in the first four rounds.
Aaron Rodgers: Warm Seat
Aaron Rodgers resorted to the old ways that got him on the Hot Seat to begin with, throwing for only 240 yards and with a completion percentage of 60%. He scored twice, and the team was winning big on the legs of Aaron Jones, but he still threw 33 passes and didn’t look very good in Week 2.
The Fantasy Hot Seat: Week 3
Now that we’ve discussed the past players, let’s jump into Week 3 and discuss some of the players that can cause itching and, in some cases, irritable bowel syndrome.
Austin Hooper – TE, Cleveland Browns
For the third week in a row, a Cleveland Brown makes it to our Hot Seat, and I could make a case for a fourth (Jarvis Landry, WR49). Cleveland’s only players are Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, both of which are in the top-10 of fantasy RBs. Hooper has been a significant disappointment through the first two weeks of the season, currently sitting at TE36. His teammate David Njoku (who’s on IR) has more fantasy points on roughly 100 fewer snaps.
The biggest issue with Hooper right now is his lack of routes run. In 2019, Austin Hooper played 724 total snaps for the Falcons but only stayed to block on 213 of them (29%). In 2020, Hooper has played 113 snaps, with 55% of them as a blocker. When I watch the Browns tape, I see the Browns (mainly Baker Mayfield) play the game as if this is Madden. He calls hike, runs around a lot, and is always looking to throw deep. For players like Hooper, this isn’t very good. In Week 2, Baker had the 5th highest aDOT at 10.2 yards. Baker threw the ball 24 times and had 25% of them go for more than ten yards downfield.
Hooper was drafted as a borderline starting TE according to FF Calculator (TE13) and, at this point, is nothing more than a streaming flex option. Hopefully he can turn it around, but if he’s going to have zero opportunity to catch a pass on 55% of his plays, the numbers don’t look right.
Joe Mixon – RB, Cincinnati Bengals
Much like CEH in a previous column, this is not an indication of my hatred for Mixon. It’s entirely the opposite. I am on record having said he would finish as RB1, and he’s a Sooner, so obviously I am high on him. However, Mixon is currently not producing at an RB1 level, let alone THE RB1, and a lot of that has to do with his putrid offensive line. The Bengals have the 12th worst run-blocking unit and the 6th worst pass-blocking unit. Joe Mixon has seemingly been hit behind the line of scrimmage more than any other back in the league. Mixon currently ranks 53rd in YCO/A with 2.34 and has less than 2.5 yards after contact on 21 of his 35 carries this year.
Another reason why Mixon is on the hot seat is his lack of real opportunity. Mixon had 46 snaps played on Thursday Night Football with running back Gio Bernard getting 42. While splitting time on the field isn’t that much of an issue, he only played 50% of the team’s offensive snaps in Week 2.
Even worse, these two backs split the number of carries inside the five-yard line, which shows that Mixon is not a lock for work at the goal line. Mixon did catch four passes for 40 yards in Week 2, which is up from his Week 1 performance, but all of them came in the first half; he was seemingly non-existent in the second half. You can’t afford to bench Mixon just yet, but you may need to look for someone who will overpay for him before it’s too late.
Austin Ekeler – RB, Los Angeles Chargers
Another team with what can only be described as an identity crisis, the Los Angeles Chargers have a problem on their hands. Well, I guess they don’t, but fantasy owners who put a lot of draft stock into Ekeler sure do. Through two weeks, Ekeler has been efficient. He’s caught all five of his targets for 58 yards, and he is currently averaging more than five yards per carry. However, he has yet to find the end zone, and much like Joe Mixon above, he has a bit of an issue splitting time with Joshua Kelley. Kelley has had the same amount of carries as Ekeler despite having rushed for less than 3.6 yards per each and is the only running back to have scored a TD.
Another interesting point to note is that while the two have the same amount of carries (35), Kelley has twice as many carries inside the red zone and has four carries inside the five compared to Ekeler’s zero. My biggest concern with Ekeler at the moment is the number of targets he has received through two games. While his numbers are respectable (5 for 58), he is on pace to have only 40 targets in 2020 compared to 104 last season.
According to the guys on Unscripted, Philip Rivers threw the check down to his RBs on 8% of his passing attempts last year, 3% higher than league average. Tyrod Taylor has thrown to the check down on just 3.3% of his career attempts. If this continues, Ekeler will not come close to the RB1 status you hoped for, and its likely time to find a willing trade partner.
The guys discuss whether Ekeler will meet the high expectations placed on him by both fantasy football players and the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020. pic.twitter.com/3r9q5W4E64
— Unscripted (@UnscriptedFF) September 17, 2020
Quarterbacks Over The Age Of 40
We need to loop this into a group rather than just discussing one of them. I am talking about both Drew Brees and Tom Brady, who have looked pedestrian through the first two weeks of the season. According to FF Calculator, both Brees and Brady have a high impact on your fantasy team as they were drafted as the 7th and 8th QBs, respectively. Neither QB currently rank inside the top-12, and if you happen to be in some insane 20-team league like we are in The Club Championship, only Brady is considered a starter as QB19 (Brees QB24).
Let’s first look at Brees, who has one of the lowest aDOTs of his career at only 5.2 (34th in the league). Drew Brees’ current yards per attempt sits at 6.9, which is only inflated due to his 38-attempt Week 2 performance against the Raiders, where he played from behind a good portion of the game. This will mark only the second time in his entire career that he had a YPA less than 7.0 (2007) and is nearly a yard less than his career average.
Brees has had less than a 101.0 QB rating just three times since 2009 and is on pace to do it again. Brees holds back-to-back records of the best completion percentage in a season of any QB (currently sitting at 74.7%) but now has a completion percentage of 10 % points lower.
Tom Brady isn’t much different. Despite his aDOT being nearly 2 yards higher, his YPA is less than Brees at only 6.4. In Brady’s career, he has had less than 7.5 YPA just five times. Another troubling statistic is the number of turnovers Brady has (3 INTs & 2 Fumbles). Brady has never had a season with more than 12 interceptions and is currently on pace for 24. Brady is also on pace for one of his worst passing years in terms of yardage. In Brady’s career, he has thrown for less than 4,000 yards just three times. Once was his rookie year, another was 2008, where he missed the whole season due to injury only 11 attempts into Week 1. Brady’s current pace is a little more than 3,600 yards; pair that with his low TD and high INT rates, and we are looking at a QB who may have reached the end of his rope.
If you have more Fantasy Football questions and want to know if other players are on the Hot, Warm, or Cold Seat, hit me up at @JMan_FF on Twitter. You can also follow our team @TheUndroppables, and be sure to check out our updated redraft rankings to help you with rest of season trade ideas, as well as weekly rankings for start/sit decisions.
