The fantasy football industry has grown to make accountability one of its core tenets, so it’s only right that we look back at our hot takes article from the 2020 preseason to see what we got right, admit what we got wrong, and analyze whether each take’s process was sound. It’s time for a heat check.
For each take, I will point out the 2020 result related to the player in question, followed by my own approximation of why the take was sharp or fell flat. Remember, these are HOT TAKES, so it’s likely more were wrong than they were right. But hey: Go BIG or go HOME.
BAKER MAYFIELD WILL REBOUND FROM LAST YEAR’S STRUGGLES AND FINISH AS A TOP 12 QB
Result: Baker Mayfield finished as the QB17 in 4-point per passing TD leagues.
Analysis: Mayfield threw fewer than 500 passes in 2020, and this makes it extremely hard to be a QB1 in fantasy, unless you have significant rushing upside. The three QBs with fewer than 500 pass attempts who finished AHEAD of Mayfield this season include: Cam Newton (368), Lamar Jackson (376) and Ryan Tannehill (481). Each of these QBs had at least 7 rushing TDs (along with plenty of rushing yards) to supplement their lack of passing.
You can blame Kevin Stefanski’s scheme, you can blame the Odell Beckham Jr. injury, and you can even blame some bad weather games sprinkled in. But when it comes down to it, Mayfield’s 54/165/1 rushing line on the season didn’t have the juice to make him a QB1 on so few pass attempts.
JONATHAN TAYLOR WILL BE A TOP 10 RB
Result: JT finished the 2020 season as the RB6 in both PPR and Half-PPR scoring.
Analysis: Talent don’t lie! While he was thrust into greater opportunity faster with a season-ending injury to Marlon Mack and struggled through the middle portion of the year, Taylor ended up making the most of his chances. He proved through the last five weeks of the season he has what it takes to be a true bell cow in the league. It’s worth noting Taylor’s 35+ point performance against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 went a long way toward solidifying his position among the fantasy community.
CAM AKERS IS THE ROOKIE RB1 AND FINISHES AS A TOP 12 RB
– @BpoFSU
Result: Cam Akers finished as the RB43 in Half-PPR scoring for 2020.
Analysis: This is a tough one, considering that because @FantasyDukes got his take right, that @BpoFSU would get his wrong. While Akers started to come on toward the end of the year, he was not implemented into the Rams’ running game early enough to have an RB1 season. We have Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown (but most importantly Sean McVay) to thank for that. On the plus side, Akers has a ton of hype from our team going into 2021.
RONALD JONES HOLDS OFF THE COMPETITION AND FINISHES AS A LOW-END RB1
Result: Ronald Jones finished the 2020 season as the RB16 in Half-PPR scoring. His stat line was 192 rushes for 978 yards and 7 rushing TDs, along with 28 receptions for 165 yards and 1 receiving TD.
Analysis: The reason I bring up RoJo’s exact stats is because Paulie hit half of this on the nuts. From our article back in August: “My projection for Jones sits at 190 carries for 855 yards & 42 receptions for 378 yards with 8+ TDs.” That’s a pretty damn good rushing estimate from Paulie, and it deserves props. It’s sucks that RoJo ultimately couldn’t steal that passing work away from Leonard Fournette and secure true RB1 status; as of now I’m not sure he ever will.
NICK CHUBB WILL BE A TOP 3 DYNASTY RB THIS TIME NEXT YEAR
Result: Nick Chubb finished the 2020 season as the RB9 in Half-PPR on 12 games played. As of January 2021, Chubb is outside the Top 6 RBs in dynasty startup ADP.
Analysis: According to dynastyleaguefootball.com, the top 6 RBs in January 2021 startup ADP are Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Dalvin Cook, and D’Andre Swift. If Chubb doesn’t go down with an injury mid-season, there’s a good chance he’s in this grouping. Nevertheless, I like where Brad’s head is at here. He’s had the Browns’ offensive line ranked higher than most, which goes a long way toward Chubb’s long term success. Year two in Kevin Stefanski’s offense should also allow for a jump in production.
My only concern is Brad predicted the departure of Kareem Hunt in the offseason, but the Browns signed Hunt to a team-friendly extension through 2022 back in September. We love us some Nick Chubb at The Undroppables, but I’m afraid his fantasy ceiling is capped while he serves as the thunder to Kareem Hunt’s lightning.
D.J. MOORE WILL BE A TOP 5 WR
Result: D.J. Moore finished as the WR21 in Half-PPR for 2020, with only 66 receptions on 118 targets (55.9 catch %).
Analysis: Boy, could I have not missed this further! Moore was the WR7 in my 2020 rankings, and I was ready for him to explode with a seemingly better QB situation compared to 2019. It turns out the addition of Robby Anderson, combine with how Matt Rhule wanted to utilize his WR corps, did not work out in Moore’s favor.
Moore was used deeper down field than he’d ever been before (13.2 average depth of target compared to 2019’s 11.1) and I’m confident Teddy Bridgewater’s accuracy on deeper throws did little to help the situation. Moore has also become a bit like Julio Jones with his current trend of not finding the end zone more than four times in a season. That lack of positive regression never helps.
JUSTIN JEFFERSON LEADS THE VIKINGS IN RECEPTIONS
Result: Justin Jefferson led the Vikings with 88 receptions for 1,400 yards. He was followed by Adam Thielen, who had 74 receptions for 925 yards.
Analysis: What a call by Randal! While I faded Adam Thielen myself because of age, what I failed to logically follow that up with was bullishness for Jefferson. Both receivers did well for fantasy purposes, but Jefferson immediately stepping into a #1 WR role for the Vikings as a rookie was a major win if you took a chance on him late in your draft.
JONNU SMITH IS A TOP 5 TE
Result: Jonnu Smith finished 2020 as the TE10 in Half-PPR.
Analysis: It happened again. Tight End sucked for fantasy except for a couple of elite players and guys with a high number of TDs. Many of us at The Undroppables were bullish on Smith as a sleeper going into the year given his athletic profile and opportunity available in the offense, but what we failed to factor in was the fourth-year breakout of Corey Davis. I don’t think anyone saw that coming.
Smith was banged up at one point in the year as well, and the Titans really started to spread the targets to their tight ends around between Smith, Anthony Firkser, and MyCole Pruitt. The whole thing felt like a bit of a mystery. Right now, it’s hard to double down on Smith in Tennessee for 2021.
DARREN WALLER IS A LOCK TO FINISH AS A TOP 3 TE
Result: Darren Waller finished as the TE2 in Half-PPR scoring for 2020, nearly 75 points ahead of the TE3 Robert Tonyan.
Analysis: I believe Luke said it best back in August: “Looking at some of the most predictive stats to following season fantasy points (r^2 > 40%), Waller was second in YAC, fourth in receiving first downs per game, and third in receiving yards per game among tight ends. Looking beyond production, he’s more athletic than almost every other TE in the league, with a 99th percentile speed score and 90th percentile burst score. Both 2019’s production and his athleticism add up to a big year in 2020.”
Luke went on to say people faded Waller’s potential for targets because of newly-drafted rookie wide receivers, but Waller’s talent would continue to earn him targets. This was great process from Luke here, and an even better result if you bought into Waller.
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