Final Exam is a statistical deep-dive into a select group of prospects from each rookie class. With an analytics-driven approach, an objective breakdown is provided so readers can properly adjust their perspectives from a dynasty lens.
Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Running Backs
Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers
In the 2019 rookie class,
- Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
- Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins
- Daniel Jones, New York Giants
- Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
- Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars
Although the data set for Lock is extremely limited due to the team’s decision to start the veteran Flacco, the Denver rookie QB was included to provide a comprehensive look at the top prospects in the 2019 QB class.
To evaluate this year’s rookie QB class, I took a closer look at the following categories: Passing Productivity, Passing Opportunity, Passing Efficiency, Rushing Productivity and Rushing Opportunity.
Passing Opportunity
In terms of pass attempts, Kyler Murray led all rookies, followed by Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones coming in third. Haskins and Lock were further down as they did not start until later in the year. Murray ended up 9th in total pass attempts among all quarterbacks in his rookie year.
An interesting (and somewhat surprising) find is that Jones actually attempted one more pass per game than Murray. Coming into the season, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury stated he wanted to run 90-95 plays per game in an uptempo, air raid offense. No team has averaged 80 offensive plays per game and 2019 was no different as the Eagles led the league with 69 plays per game. The Cardinals were actually in the bottom half of the league with 62.5, behind Jones’ Giants.
The Giants played without Saquon Barkley through much of the season and leaned on their rookie QB, which likely bumped up his per game passing volume. Even so, Jones is surrounded with receiving talent from Barkley to Engram to Slayton, Shepard and Tate so it’s easy to project high volume for Jones in his sophomore year.
Each of these rookies outside of Minshew have (guaranteed) starting jobs in 2020 so we can expect the passing volume to be there. Like Jones, we can project Murray to have top 10 passing volume as long as Kingsbury keeps his job after a mediocre first year (which is likely). If Bill Callahan stays in Washington (surprisingly, this is an actual possibility), then the Redskins offense stays run-heavy and Haskins’ pass volume will be tempered. With limited data on Lock, projecting any future 2020 volume will be challenging although Flacco did throw 32.8 times on average (close to Lock’s 31.2). At Lock’s current rookie passing rate, he’d throw 500 times in his second year, which is about middle of the pack.
Passing Productivity
Murray led the way with over 3,300 passing yards but still trailed Jones in other productivity categories (YPG and pass TDs). In fact, Kyler had the third-highest pass yards per game average.
While Murray boasts the higher floor with his rushing, the opportunity and productivity statistics show that Jones may have a higher ceiling. This is strictly conjecture at this point, but Jones can sling it and, as mentioned before, he has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. Minshew was second among rookies in terms of total pass yards while leading the 2019 class in pass yards per game.
Passing Efficiency
Accuracy Rating – Grades the accuracy each of throw on a 1-10 scale. 1-3 representing the most errand throw, 4-7 representing throws in some range of catchable but sub-optimal, and 8-10 representing the most pinpoint passes allowing receivers to convert receptions and gain yards after the catch. Quarterbacks with Accuracy Ratings above 6.0 are considered highly accurate, and those below 4.0 are considered highly inaccurate.
When looking at the 2019 rookie QB class from an accuracy standpoint, each of the five signal callers that were evaluated scored as highly accurate passers. Although it was a small sample size, Lock led rookies in accuracy rating and true completion rate but Kyler was close behind followed by Minshew and Jones in both categories. However, given the volume of the latter three mentioned, accuracy ratings at or near 7.0 is an extremely positive indicator for rookies.
A key takeaway here is that Murray scored an accuracy rating of 7.0 with top 10 passing volume. To put into some context, Murray was more accurate than Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, among others, and just as accurate as Russell Wilson who sees much less passing volume.
Air Yards – Completed passing yards not including yards after the catch. The higher the completed air yards per attempt, the less a quarterback is being helped by his receivers gaining yards after the catch.
Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) – Modified yards per attempt incorporates a premium for touchdowns and a discount for interceptions. This stat was introduced and fully outlined in the book The Hidden Game of Football by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn.
The five rookie QBs each scored similarly when looking at completed air yards per attempt, all scoring in the 3’s. This is about average when comparing against all NFL quarterbacks. Whether it was conservative playcalling to prevent rookie mistakes, these young guns didn’t push the ball down the field (which is corroborated in the next category: Deep Balls).
Deep Balls
Murray may have given the edge to Jones in opportunity and efficiency, Kyler does promise a nice passing ceiling when considering deep ball volume and accuracy. Only Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes threw more deep balls with more accuracy than Kyler Murray. They said that Murray could sling it. They weren’t wrong.
Rushing Opportunity
Not many surprises at the top of this list with Murray at the top by a decent margin, although Kyler getting over 1 red zone carry per game is something to note and is accentuated when looking at rushing TDs (see below).
Rushing Productivity
Kyler was far and away the most prolific rusher in this class, placing 35th among all players. Murray actually had more rushing yards in his rookie year than veteran backs like James Conner, Kerryon Johnson, David Johnson, Royce Freeman, Jordan Howard, Damien Williams to name just a handful.
To put it Murray’s rushing production into further context, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara each had 5 rushing TDs while Murray scored four times on the ground. This probably says more about Mixon’s and Kamara’s TD regression heading into 2020, but also sheds some light into Murray being a true dual red zone threat. Murray only had four carries inside the 5 so he was running it in from anywhere in the red zone.
Turnovers
I recall Jones and Minshew having some meltdown games but I did not expect to see double-digit fumbles for these rookie QBs. The Giants and Jaguars were middle of the pack in pass protection so the carelessness with the football will need to be remedied over the offseason. Daniel Jones also threw 12 interceptions to tie Murray for the rookie lead.
Fantasy Points Scored
Kyler finishes as the top rookie QB and the QB7 overall with 18.8 points per game. Jones was still a QB2 even though he missed a few games and Minshew was right behind at #23. Haskins and Lock, understandably, were ranked near the bottom.
Grades
* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.
Kyler Murray – Heralded as the next elite Konami Code QB after Lamar Jackson, Murray came into the league with back-to-back 300 yard games but minimal rushing production. However, his rushing floor surfaced in Week 3 and has firmly established Kyler as a top 5 dynasty quarterback. Murray has an incredible floor based off his rushing production and his propensity to air it out gives him a sky-high ceiling. The biggest downside to Murray is his 26th ranked pass blocking offensive line (per Football Outsiders) that ill-affords him and his receivers time to create plays. Arizona will shore up their o-line problems this offseason to protect their franchise QB and look to replace Larry Fitzgerald who is likely retiring this time. Some have already come out and pegged Kyler as the Lamar Jackson of 2020 with a stellar breakout campaign predicted. That remains to be seen but the 2019 QB9 only has room to grow even more in an offense that is built around him and will undoubtedly add additional weapons to the fold.
Talent – ✅✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?
Dwayne Haskins – Whether the front office didn’t deem him ready to start the season, Haskins gave way to veteran journeyman Case Keenum for a good portion of the 2019 season. And even when he took the reins, the OSU product was lackluster with his best game coming against the weak Eagles secondary for 261 yards and 2 TDs. But watching the games, it was clear that Haskins was not NFL-ready to start his career and will need work. He often missed easy throws to his receivers including his former college teammate, Terry McLaurin, who suffered as a result. The preseason hype was purely based on his SportsCenter appearance where he appeared to be a prodigy when it came to defense reads and play breakdowns. But when he got on the field, his talent did not match the expectations of a top 15 overall pick in the NFL Draft, especially a franchise QB. On the upside, Haskins is only 22 and has made some plays particularly as the season has wound down. He’s a project with an uncertain situation (Washington has question marks from the front office to the coaching staff to the 31st ranked pass blocking offensive line). And outside of McLaurin and a hopefully healthy Guice, the Redskins lack playmakers around Haskins. This offseason will be critical not only for Haskins’ development but the Redskins franchise as a whole.
Talent – ?
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ❔
Daniel Jones – Danny Dimes quickly proved the haters wrong upon his entrance into the league in Week 2 with 336 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns (2 pass, 2 rush). Based off his passing volume, Jones looks to be able to support solid production numbers. The Giants are a team in transition but with an array of receiving weapons along with the transcendent Barkley, Jones will continue to develop into a solid NFL starting quarterback for the next decade. The most alarming issue with Jones, as with some of the other rookies, is ball security and his fumble issues. New York’s offensive line actually ranked 18th in pass blocking so the fumbling woes cannot be blamed on a lack of protection. Jones must protect the ball and have better game sense when it comes to pocket awareness. Currently, Dimes is squarely in the top 10 dynasty QB conversation and it would not be surprising to see him creep even higher over the offseason as the Giants continue to change things beginning with the coaching staff.
Talent – ✅
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?
Drew Lock – Stuck behind veteran Joe Flacco to begin his career, Lock took some time to get on the field but immediately delivered once was given an opportunity. With that said, the sample size is limited with Lock so it is hard to judge his true talent level given the small number of attempts and games. We also don’t know much about the Broncos offense outside of Sutton, Lindsay and Fant who have defined roles. Both Daesean Hamilton and Tim Patrick are projects at best so Denver will need to retool through the draft as they likely won’t be major players for a free agent WR (as they traded the aging Emmanuel Sanders). Lock is a hold in dynasty and generally a wait and see.
Talent – ❔
Situation – ?♂️
Final Grade – ?
Gardner Minshew – Minshew Mania took the NFL world by storm and the mustaches were out in full force in Duval. But things eventually soured when Minshew hit the rookie wall at the most inopportune time for him… when Nick Foles was set to be activated from IR. In the game before Foles’ activation, Minshew had a complete meltdown with 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles in a blowout loss against the Texans. Minshew was promptly benched only to be reinserted as the starter after Foles had a meltdown of his own. As of now, we are unsure as to who will hold the keys to the Jaguars offense next season but Foles is a salary cap liability after signing a 4 year $88,000,000 contract this offseason. Minshew has flashed at times but has also driven his fantasy owners crazy with up and down weeks at any given moment. He’s fun to watch but wild gunslinging ways make unpredictable and inconsistent. Tread with caution and don’t get caught up in the Minshew Mania or you might be having a meltdown of your own.
Talent – ?
Situation – ?♂️
Final Grade – ?
