There are plenty of ways to bet money on the NFL these days. If you’re lucky enough to live in a state where sports betting is legal, there are dozens of sportsbooks. Last NFL season when I was living in Colorado, where sports betting is legal, I was betting on player props every weekend. As a fantasy football player, prop bets are easy to exploit because we focus on individual player statistics. I now find myself in a state where sports betting is not legal but thankfully there is now PrizePicks.
The basis of PrizePicks is fairly simple. Instead of betting on single props, you combine 2-5 props to choose either the over or under on. The payout is different based on how many props you select. Where PrizePicks is unique is their ability to play your bet as a “Power Play” or a “Flex Play”.
A Power Play has to have every pick hit for it to cash whereas a Flex Play does not require every bet to hit to cash. The downside is that a Flex Play does have a lower payout structure. So which is better? Follow along as I dive into the math behind which of these play structures you should be playing.
PrizePicks Power Play
First, it is important to look at a detailed table of all the odds for the Power Play option. Below, I have several important things to look at including the decimal odds swapped with more recognizable American odds, the probability of cashing out, and also the implied odds given based on the decimal odds.
Finally, I also included the expected return on a $10 bet. While it is impossible to get those values from a single bet, it shows how much money you would lose on average based on a random bet.
While the 5x and 10x payouts sound fantastic, if you’re interested in being a serious bettor the 3x payout of the Pick 2 contests is the way to go. If you’re really interested in playing a Pick 3 contest, Underdog Fantasy offers 6x payouts. On PrizePicks, I would strongly suggest sticking with pick 2 if you’re going to do a Power Play.
The implied odds are interesting for these contests. If implied odds are new to you, it’s calculated by using the American odds. These are the odds the bookmakers give to the bet hitting.
As a basic rule, you want the probability of cashing to be as close to the implied odds as possible. If your odds are greater than the implied odds then that’s a great bet. All of our implied odds are higher than our probability of cashing out so none of them stick out as “must bets”.
Overall, if you’re playing Power Plays, you really should be only playing pick twos. If there are more than 2 props you want to play, I would suggest multiple Pick 2s (I can show you the math behind this if you’re interested, just send me a DM).
PrizePicks Flex Play
The Flex Play makes betting on PrizePicks very interesting. It is a lower risk/lower reward option that allows you to not hit every single one of your picks and still walk away with money, although sometimes less than your buy-in.
In the table below, you will find the decimal odds converted to American odds, the probability of cashing out, and the expected after a $10 bet. I did not include implied odds since it doesn’t apply to several of these decimals that are below 1x.
The first thing that pops out is that the expected after $10 bet is the exact same for pick two and Pick 3 contests, which is also the same for the Pick 2 contest for a Power Play. The Pick 4 and Pick 5 options are okay but I would not suggest playing them.
Conclusion
So which contests should you be playing? I calculated the percentage of your picks that would have to be correct for you to break even. The Pick 4 and Flex 4 have the best percentage for being correct. I personally have been playing mostly Power 2s because of only having to have 2 props to play. Power 2s also have a relatively low percentage of correct picks needed to break even. My only recommendation is to not play a Flex 5 consistently because the odds are not favorable in the long term. As a bettor, you should be playing the long game.
Use promo code UND when you make a deposit of $20+ on PrizePicks for a 100% instant match. Plus, we’ll add you to our exclusive Discord.
