Why would you want to draft Travis Kelce in the first round of a fantasy draft? I’m going to build the case for you to do just that, especially if you are playing .5 or full point per reception.
Kelce has been the top scoring tight end in each of the past three seasons, including four out of the last five. In 2017, Rob Gronkowski was the top scoring TE in fantasy and Kelce was the second highest scoring tight end. That is very impressive scoring the past five seasons. Kelce plays with maybe the best quarterback in the league right now. Kelce’s numbers the past five seasons look like this:
| Year | Targets | Target Share | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Touchdowns |
| 2020 | 145 | 25% | 145 | 105 | 1416 | 11 |
| 2019 | 136 | 24% | 136 | 97 | 1229 | 5 |
| 2018 | 150 | 26% | 150 | 103 | 1336 | 10 |
| 2017 | 122 | 22% | 122 | 83 | 1038 | 8 |
| 2016 | 117 | 21% | 117 | 85 | 1125 | 4 |
The bump since 2018 has to do with Patrick Mahomes taking over at quarterback. The target share will be roughly 25% for 2021, as Kelce is part of a passing tree with two major branches; Kelce and Tyreek Hill. Every other receiver on the Chiefs is competing to be the third option at best, and that seems to change from game to game.
In 2020, Travis Kelce was the seventh-highest scorer for offensive skill positions excluding QB in fantasy for .5 PPR. Only six players outscored him. Here are the top ten for RB, WR and TE combined.
- Alvin Kamara
- Derrick Henry
- Dalvin Cook
- Davante Adams
- Tyreek Hill
- Stefon Diggs
- Travis Kelce
- David Montgomery
- Calvin Ridley
- Aaron Jones
The second-highest scoring tight end in fantasy was Darren Waller, who scored 35 points fewer that Kelce on the season. Kelce scored 260 points, with Waller scoring 225 points. The next-highest scoring tight end was Robert Tonyan, who scored roughly 110 fewer points than Kelce.
Kamara was the leading running back, and both Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook were within 35 points of Kamara. The drop off at running back of 110 points appears at RB7 on the season, James Robinson. The scoring drop off is much more gradual with running backs throughout.
At quarterback, Josh Allen was the top scoring quarterback and the 110 point drop off doesn’t happen until the QB12 on the season, Matt Ryan.
Well, Davante Adams was the top scoring wide receiver in fantasy, and both Diggs and Hill were within 35 points of Adams. The drop off of 110 fewer points at the wide receiver position than Adams was the WR15, Amari Cooper.
So why am I discussing these drop offs in points? This is to depict the distinct advantage you gain with drafting Kelce in the first round at pick 1.07. I would only pick the top six or seven running backs over Kelce at this point in time in redraft and best ball drafts. Drafting Kelce gives you essentially a 7-point-per-week advantage over the vast majority of your league at a position where it will be difficult to makes those points up.
If you are picking late in the first round and Travis Kelce is there, draft him. DO IT. Then pair Kelce with a running back or one of the top three wide receivers in the second round. This will build a solid foundation for your team in 2021.
For more redraft and best ball fantasy football advice, you can follow Reedy on Twitter, at @MikeReedyFF, and you can keep up to date on our article by following us @TheUndroppables.
