Fantasy football used to mean getting together with a group of friends, throwing down some cash and selecting your team. But the popularity of the NFL and football in general has helped to ignite the fantasy industry. It’s spread to every corner of society. From prop bets to work leagues, what was once seen as a hobby for dorks and non-athletes is now mainstream. Even the players themselves are in on the action.
People are making careers out of giving us common folks fantasy advice. Who to start, who to sit. Fade this guy, draft that one. Regression, analytics, sleepers, breakouts… it’s enough to make your head spin like a tightly thrown spiral from Patrick Mahomes (don’t reach for him early, kids)
Hopefully this column will help with some of that, by highlighting players who I expect to score on a weekly basis. News and results will obviously work to change player values so keep up with my updated positional rankings to see how I value players against each other.
Also, be sure to catch all the content from my colleagues and I at theundroppables.com. There you can find results, rankings, articles and more. And finally, the Unscripted Fantasy Podcast drops weekly. You can find it on Spotify, Apple, Anchor or wherever the hell you prefer to stream. And without further ado, I bring you… my week one scorers.
Running Back
Aaron Jones scored three times against the Vikings last year. Including twice as part of a massive Week 16 contest that helped a lot of folks win their Fantasy Championship. (Isn’t that right, Gary Haddow?) I’m going to this well one more time. Jones finds paydirt and shakes those nasty regression predictions… at least for one week.
James Conner is as healthy as he will be all year and what once was old is new again in Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The “new” look Pittsburgh offense should score early and often Sunday. Including once or twice on the ground.
Josh Jacobs has 20/20 vision. That is to say that this could be his year. The sophomore has a legit shot at leading the league in rushing and he kicks off his campaign against one of the worst statistical defenses of the last five years. The 2019 Panthers gave up a whopping 31 rushing scores, almost 2300 yards and saw 41.4% of opponents’ drives end in scores. Jacobs should have a field day.
The Jacksonville Jaguars spent another offseason shipping off their most talented players. With no Tom Coughlin to blame it on, Head Coach Doug Marones seat is hotter than a two dollar pistol. The Jaguars project to be truly awful. The Colts have one of the best run blocking lines in the league and they’re going to grind this game way down in the second half. Jonathan Taylor scores twice and lights twitter on fire.
Teams attempted a league-leading 504 rushing attempts against the Bengals last year. Including 17 rushing scores and 124 first downs on the ground (second in the league) For their part the Chargers were one of the more efficient running teams in the red zone, with a 53% successful play rate. In an Oprah like giveaway, everyone gets a touchdown. Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley and even Tyrod Taylor find the endzone.
Wide Receiver
The Lions gave away touchdowns to pass catchers last year like Oprah Winfrey giving away copies of her latest book. A staggering 33 of them to be precise. And while first-round pick Jeff Okudah should help tremendously, I suspect the veteran Allen Robinson to have a few tricks for the rookie. The Lions win the game, but the Bears should score some points. Count on A-Rob for one score.
Despite a leg injury that basically cost him all or parts of three games, Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett led the league in redzone targets (24). He and QB Russel Wilson have chemistry that borders on telepathy. The Falcons were one of the worst teams in the league at defending the WR position last year. Giving up an average of 36.4 PPG. That number included 28 touchdowns to pass catchers. Expect Lockett and Wilson to pick up where they left off in the playoffs (torching the Packers for 136 yards and a score)
The Vikings spent the offseason turning over their secondary. They started by releasing Xavier Rhodes and ended selecting Jeff Gladney from TCU. The Vikings are young on the outside. None of their projected two deep is over the age of 23. Packers star WR Davante Adams has averaged 11 targets per game the last two years and the Packers inexplicably did nothing to address their WR corps this offseason. I expect another busy afternoon for Adams and at least one score.
The LA Rams have just given star corner Jalen Ramsey a record $105 million. But I’ve yet to see a CB who’s good enough to cover two-star WRs. Enter Micheal Gallup. His yards per route run were nearly as efficient as Amari Cooper (2.16 vs 2.29) And four of his six touchdowns came when Dak was facing pressure. While Cooper is busy with Ramsey, Gallup could get free behind a mostly beatable back end.
Tight End
Reports out of Steelers camp is that new tight end Eric Ebron has been making plays all over the place. Talent has never been a question with Ebron and we’ve seen what he can do when it comes together for him. While I don’t expect another 13 TD season, he should threaten double figures for the Steelers this year as their red zone weapon of choice. In a game where the Steelers should score plenty of points, he should beat a porous Giants defense for a score.
The way the Cardinals gave away fantasy points to the tight end position in 2019 was almost comical. They surrendered 13.1 PPG to the position. Nobody else was in double figures! They also yielded 16 touchdowns and 1150 yards! Enter Isaiah Simmons. The talented do it all Clemson Tiger should help but his presence is akin to the Dutch Boy with his finger in the dam. The 49ers made star TE George Kittle the highest-paid player at the position this offseason. Expect a return on that investment week one.
The 2019 Cleveland Browns gave up the second most points and touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Their inept play was masked only by the historically bad season that played out in the Arizona desert. With Hayden Hurst shipped off to Atlanta, TE Mark Andrews should have every opportunity to improve on a 2019 season that saw him catch 10 touchdowns. No other TE was in double figures. Expect he and QB Lamar Jackson to kick off 2020 in style in a game that has shootout potential.
