The NFL returned last week and boy was I grateful! I didn’t realize just how much I missed the roar of the cro… wait. There were no crowds. It was strange watching the games with few or no fans in the stands. Another byproduct of the new world we find ourselves in. I think the strangest part was watching the Gold Rush Girls during the 49ers game. Who were they pumping up? Certainly not the crowd. Not the 49ers offense either. Boy they stunk on ice. But for the most part I was just happy to have football back. I can get used to the absence of fans as long as it means keeping the athletes and coaches safe while they distract us for a few hours every Sunday. It’s not the same, but it’s worth it to me.
As for this column. Last week, I debuted Thin Goal Line and told you guys that this was purely about touchdowns. I wanted to outline the guys who I felt had the best opportunity to hit pay dirt. We hit on some and just missed on others. I didn’t include my preseason darling Zack Moss because I felt like you guys might roll your eyes right out of your heads… and low and behold, he scored his first NFL touchdown Sunday. Let that be a lesson, kids. Always follow your instincts. Especially when it comes to your lineup. Now without further ado.
Running Back
When I was covering recruiting for CBS (If you don’t know that story, I talk about it in Episode 13 of the Unscripted Podcast) we had a saying. Watch what they do, not what they say. Well, Bruce Arians did everything this off season, except cut Ronald Jones, to make you think that he wanted someone, anyone other than him to carry the load for Tampa. They drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn, signed Le’Sean McCoy and then, a week before the season snagged Leonard Fournette. All the while Arians maintained that RoJo was his guy. Yeah right… hey, right? RoJo played 33 of 70 snaps (47%) far more than any other Buccs RB. He touched the ball 19 times in total and looked really good against an aggressive New Orleans front. This week will be far easier for him when the Panthers come to town. Last week I touched on just how bad the Panthers were against the RB position in 2019. Folks, they’re still awful. Raiders RB Josh Jacobs trampled the Carolina run defense for 93 yards and three scores. RoJo gets on the board Sunday. Maybe twice.
The Vikings spent most of the off season turning over their defense. And like Marge Gunderson, they could use a jump. The Green Bay Packers, led by star RB Aaron Jones, rushed for 175 yards last weekend. The ‘Pack looked more like Lambeau’s Packers than LaFleur’s as they boat raced the Vikings in their own stadium. It doesn’t get any easier for the purple people eaters this week as they square off against one of the leagues best offensive lines and prized rookie Jonathan Taylor. With Marlon Mack out of the way and the backfield to himself (I see you Nyheim Hines) look for the big man to run over, around and through Minnesota just like that big Olds Cutlass through the Fargo snow.
I know David Montgomery isn’t exactly flashy, but… the Giants just allowed Benny Snell to trample them. The Bears actually ran the ball well Sunday, scoring the 5th highest run success rate in the NFL. They’re at home, Allen Robinson is trying to leave town and Mitch Trubisky isn’t winning you any stuffed animals from the county fair. The Bears are going to have to run the football. Mark me down for a Monty TD.
When the Rodger Goodell ultimately decides to move the Jaguars to London, it’s Derrick Henry who will be called to the NFL office, because he, not Shad Khan owns the Jaguars. In his last four games against the Jags, the Alabama product has rushed for 498 yards and 7 touchdowns. Including his 99 yard rumble that brought the house down two years ago. Colts starter Marlon Mack was averaging 6.5 YPC when his Achilles gave out on him last week. With the Titans receiving corp banged up, I expect King Henry to rule the roost in Nashville Sunday. Give me two scores, please.
Wide Receiver
JuJu Smith-Schuster looked good Monday night. Did you guys see him? He caught two touchdowns and looked every bit like the player we remember from 2018. Gosh 2018 seems like a long time ago. Antonio Brown was normal, Justin Bieber was single and Childish Gambino was breaking the internet. Ah, life was good. But just like the revival of Rosanne, all good things must end. Enter Anthony Miller. Miller ran 17 routes from the slot last week and like JuJu, found his way back to the endzone. Also like JuJu he has an early season match up against Giants slot corners, who allowed the fourth most fantasy points to WR’s in 2019. While Allen Robinson tangles with James Bradberry, Anthony Miller will look to exploit Issac Yiadom? Yikes!
Who in the world is going to cover Davante Adams this week? I don’t know either.
I know it’s starting to sound like I’m picking on the Vikings, because and I am. I was notably lower on this team than most everyone this off season. It seems like everyone glossed over the fact that they have 15 new players in their defensive two deep. They’re talented but they’re inexperienced. QB Philip Rivers doesn’t have much left in the tank but the Vikings can be beaten on the back end. Parris Campbell led the Colts in targets and snaps from the WR position in week one. He’ll knock another first off the list Sunday when he scores his first NFL touchdown.
The Atlanta WRs had 12 targets Sunday. All of them. A piece. But the Offense still runs through Julio Jones, who is a lock against a Dallas secondary that just surrendered 6 for 105 to Robert Woods. It could have been worse if the Rams had had to throw the ball. They didn’t because Malcolm Brown chewed up the ‘Boys on SNF. The Falcons don’t have that ability and this game portends to be a shootout. Oh, and While I’m here, Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup get in on the fun too.
Who’s playing the slot for Kansas City this week? Whomever it is, just go ahead and take some paid time off. Chris Harris Jr. nearly blanked Tyler Boyd last week and he knows the Chiefs all too well. Demarcus Robinson dropped a 47-yard bomb from Pat Mahomes last week. He makes up for it Sunday and gets in the end zone.
Tight End
Until the Cardinals prove to me that they can cover the Tight End, (6.4 Adj FPA) I’m going to keep coming to this well. Don’t let the final stat line fool you. George Kittle was on the verge of a huge game when he went down with what appeared to be a serious knee injury. BTW, did anyone catch that nifty release Kyle Shanahan drew up for Kittle? He split the Center and Guard and fired off clean. Logan Thomas actually looked good for Washington last week and could prove to be a nice red zone threat for Dwayne Haskins.
Jonnu Smith played 73% of the snaps against Denver and caught 4 balls including a touchdown. With Corey Davis and AJ Brown on the mend, he might be the only healthy option for QB Ryan Tannehill. One Score for the talented Mr. Smith.
It might be time to dust the cobwebs off one of Twitter’s favorite love-hate prospects. I’m talking, of course, about O.J. Howard. That’s right boys and girls. Lost in Tom Brady’s third straight game with a pick-six was the fact that OJH had a pretty solid game. He played 53% of the snaps and doubled his future HOF teammate, Rob Gronkowski, in targets and receptions. In fact, his six targets were a number he saw just four times last year. Brady loves his TE’s and with WRs Chris Godwin in the concussion protocol and Mike Evans nursing a hamstring injury, he’ll find a way to get them him ball.
Who in the world will the Patriots put across from Greg Olsen? One Score for the old man who already looks in sync with Russel Wilson.
