Market Watch is where we dive into the ever-changing ADP values of players in dynasty formats. Whether it’s an opportunity to buy low, sell high or even buy high, sharks never sleep.
📈 Bullish: These are players whose average draft position (ADP) is trending up, meaning they likely have more trade value and will be taken higher in drafts than before.
📉 Bearish: These are players whose ADP is trending down, meaning they likely have less trade value and are likely being taken later in drafts.
Note: ADP is based on FFPC Dynasty-Startup SF/2QB Classic drafts; ADP and graphs are taken from RotoViz.
Cam Newton – 📈
ADP – 77.2 – 51.2 📈
Cam Newton is an obvious bullish asset because he went from being without a team to joining forces with Bill Belichick and presumably becoming the starting quarterback for the New England Patriots. Overall, Newton should be viewed as a player with question marks. He’s had a prolific career and shown that he’s a weapon on the field in both the run and pass game. However, his injury history is an obvious concern. He could miss time coming back from a shoulder injury, or play worse due to the injured shoulder. Our Undroppables doc, Adam Hutchison, tweeted an interesting thread on Cam’s shoulder recently. Near the end of the thread, we see some examples of Cam’s throwing motion post-injury. These two videos are a worrisome sight, and I recommend the entire thread if you want more insight into Newton’s health.
From another angle you can see how labored this is and how much force in put behind that thrown and it was still short.
Clearly Cam was not healthy here and after the season that proved to be correct. pic.twitter.com/YXAE24hBT9
— Adam Hutchison (@TheRealAdam_H) July 21, 2020
Those who drafted Newton in their startups over the summer should be very happy to see him sign to a team where he gets an immediate boost in value, as he likely won’t have to spend next season as the backup. This immediate boost in value can be seen in Newton’s ADP graph.
Newton’s signing not only elevates his market, but also elevates the other members of the Patriots’ passing attack. James White’s ADP has risen 33.8 spots, while Harry and Edelman both received small boosts in ADP. If Cam is truly healthy next season, there’s a very good chance all of these four players will be steals at their current ADP. I’m totally in on Edelman, White, Harry, and even Mohamed Sanu at their current ADP because of how much upside they’ll have next season compared to others around their ADP.
You can read more about the effect of Cam Newton on his new team in our Offseason Breakdown of the New England Patriots.
Denzel Mims – 📉
ADP – 153 – 38 📉
I was surprised when I saw Mims’ ADP had fallen so much over the past few months, and I don’t think I can rationalize the fall. Mims is a rookie who posted an 85th percentile College Dominator, ran a 4.38 at the combine, and was drafted in the second round. If his ADP is falling, I definitely want to take advantage of that and get Mims on my roster. He’s got a lot of upside and the lackluster Jets receiving corps will provide him opportunity early and often.
You can read more about Mims and the rest of his young offense in our Offseason Breakdown of the New York Jets.
Austin Hooper – 📉
ADP – 120.2 – 37.4 📉
The dynasty community has continued to adjust to Hooper’s less attractive spot in Cleveland. While I agree that Atlanta is a much better tight end situation than Cleveland is, I also think that NFL Front Offices do not make someone the highest paid player at their position and not have a plan to use them. For this reason, I like Hooper’s fall in ADP as it provides a buy opportunity. He should see the third-highest target share with the Browns behind Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, and new head coach Kevin Stefanski’s offense provided 105 targets to Minnesota’s tight end group in 2019. If Hooper can get 80% of that target number, he would have been ninth in targets among tight ends last year. Personally, I think Hooper will probably see even more than that, so I’d like to take him at his TE13 ADP.
You can read more about Hooper’s positive outlook in the latest entry of our Devil’s Advocate series.
James Conner – 📈
ADP – 56 – 34.6 📈
Conner’s rise can probably be attributed to him just being healthy over the offseason. Accordingly, his ADP has probably become more true to what his value should be. His new ADP makes him the RB24, which is pretty fair for a guy with the upside that Conner has even though he has significant injury history. However, according to ADP, I could pick Chris Carson, Le’Veon Bell, Kareem Hunt or David Johnson over Conner, and I would rather have those guys with their concerns over Conner’s concerns.
Deebo Samuel – 📉
ADP – 92.6 – 33 📉
Deebo Samuel put up a stellar rookie season, but he recently suffered a Jones fracture. If you want to know all about Jones fractures and how it will affect Samuel, Adam Hutchison wrote a great article on our site. While you should still read the full article, to summarize here: we should expect Samuel to miss somewhere around the first half of the season and possibly have some irritation in his foot that could affect his performance later on. One important thing to remember here is this is DYNASTY market watch, not REDRAFT market watch. Please, consider Samuel’s production and still acquire him for what you believe that production should cost. There should be very little fade for a non-career threatening injury in dynasty leagues, unless you’re dead-set on winning a championship this year and moving Samuel for a contributing piece is necessary to reach that goal.
You can read more about Deebo and the Niners in our 49ers Offseason Breakdown.
David Johnson – 📈
ADP – 69.4 – 30 📈
David Johnson is one of my favorite buys this offseason, and his stock has been rising for a while after the move to Houston. After a forgettable finish to last season, most were quick to move on. However, Johnson was the PPR RB5 from Weeks 1-6 before going down to injury. If he had kept that pace over the entire season, he would have been the PPR RB3 at the end of the year. Meanwhile, the Texans rushing game provides a lot of opportunity for both volume and efficiency. Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson combined for 328 rushes and 78 targets last season, and if Johnson can command around a 70% share of that backfield, he’ll be flirting with a 300-touch season. Clearly, talent and opportunity are both present in this situation. His finish will depend largely on his health, so I 100% recommend drafting Duke Johnson later in your drafts or trading for him, especially if you have David Johnson.
You can read more about the trade that brought David to Houston and the rest of Houston’s free agency period in this article.
Dawson Knox – 📉
ADP – 193 – 25.8 📉
Another fall in ADP that I’m not quite sure how to explain. Knox showed some promise in his rookie season, posting a TE32 finish with a 32/388/2 line while playing 15 games. However, it should be noted that Knox was tied for fourth in drops last year among all positions with six drops in total. If he can clean those up and handle a little more opportunity, Knox will likely have a solid fantasy season. However, his TE24 ADP being above Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron likely presents an opportunity for contenders to sell Knox for a tight end that will likely provide a better fantasy finish next season. I do love Knox as a long-term dynasty buy, and his ADP is probably a tad high for the risk that he doesn’t develop.
Hayden Hurst – 📈
ADP – 105.6 – 18.8 📈
As mentioned in the Austin Hooper section, the Atlanta Falcons’ tight end is a valuable position to roster in fantasy. There’s no exception with the Falcons latest acquisition, Hayden Hurst. Hurst showed some flashes in his time with Baltimore, but after an injury before his rookie season, Mark Andrews passed him on the depth chart and Hurst was unable to get his spot back. Hurst hasn’t shown up much in box scores because of this, but while only playing 39% of snaps with the Ravens last season, he posted a 30/349/2 line. He also has a physical skill set to be desired, running a 4.67 40-yard dash at the combine, which translates to a 81st percentile Speed Score among tight ends. Now, Hurst moves on to Atlanta, where the Falcons are among the league leaders in total pass attempts in the past two seasons. Just last year, Matt Ryan provided the Falcons tight end position group with 121 targets.
Overall, it’s hard to be sure of whether Hurst has elite talent, but he should be stepping into an elite opportunity in Atlanta. For me, this new opportunity combined with his production in limited roles is enough to invest in Hurst as a top-15 tight end at least, without injury. Looking at the graph, it does look like Hurst’s ADP may be falling down a little bit, which should create a decent buy opportunity.
You can read more about Hayden Hurst and the Falcons other offseason acquisitions in our Atlanta Falcons Offseason Breakdown.
Diontae Johnson – 📈
ADP – 105.2 – 17.2 📈
Diontae Johnson’s ADP has been climbing pretty much all summer due to experts on Twitter hyping him up as the new #1 WR in Pittsburgh. They have some interesting points about how good Johnson was last year with Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges as his quarterbacks, and he posted a solid line of 59/680/5, leading the Steelers in targets. This was good enough for a WR39 finish in PPR in 2019, but there is a large question mark at the quarterback position in Pittsburgh. Ben Roethlisberger should be starting this year, but Diontae Johnson and James Washington both haven’t developed much of a rapport with Roethlisberger. Also, Big Ben could hang up the cleats pretty much any time in the next few years, especially if he gets injured again.
Personally, I see the case for and the case against Diontae, and I’ve been pretty indifferent either way. However, his current ADP of WR38 is only one better than his finish last year, so the upside is probably worth it.
You can read more about Roethlisberger’s 2020 outlook in our Pittsburgh Steelers Offseason Breakdown.
T.Y. Hilton – 📈
ADP – 103.8 – 14.2 📈
Hilton is entering his age 31 season, and coming off a WR57 finish in PPR. However, Hilton only played in ten games and averaged 12.5 PPR points in games he did play, which places him as the WR34 in PPR points per game last season. Over the offseason, the Colts did upgrade their quarterback position by moving from Jacoby Brissett to Philip Rivers. This move is likely what’s causing most of Hilton’s move upwards in ADP. However, Hilton has a bit of an injury history as he has missed eight games in the past two seasons. Hilton should be seen as a solid WR2 or WR3 in PPR with weekly WR1 upside, but it would be surprising for Hilton to finish as a WR1 on the season again.
Ronald Jones – 📈
ADP – 97.6 – 13.6 📈
Ronald Jones’ ADP suffered a pretty large dip after the NFL draft, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers selected another running back in Vanderbilt product Ke’Shawn Vaughn. However, since that fall, Jones’ value has been increasing, and he is now the 33rd running back off the board in ADP. Jones put together 1,000 yards from scrimmage in his second season in the league last year, with 724 rushing yards on 172 attempts along with 309 receiving yards on 31 receptions. This output landed Jones as the RB25 in PPR last season, while his current ADP is the RB33. Personally, I don’t think Vaughn is nearly as large a threat as most people believe he is. Bruce Arians’ offense is a challenge to learn, as many of his former players have publicly stated. Especially with this truncated offseason, Vaughn may not be ready for a large role right from the jump. I am a Ronald Jones believer, and I think he should be at least a low-end RB2 this coming season and a value at his current ADP.
You can read more about Ronald Jones and the Bucs’ offseason in our Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Breakdown.
