When I wrote my Devil’s Advocate post pouring some cold water on A.J. Brown’s 2020 hype, I noted that 48.7% of his fantasy points came on scoring plays. Of course, touchdowns are always going to be a huge factor in a player’s end-of-season finish. But I see this as a way of factoring in the yardage gained on those scoring plays as well, using it as a way of understanding which players were more dependent on big plays (plays which are arguably less replicable) and which players relied largely on receptions and yards (indicators of consistency) to achieve their 2019 fantasy finish.
Methodology
Using touchdown data from pro-football-reference.com and Half-PPR scoring, I counted up the points gained from the receptions, yardage, and touchdowns for each of the Top 36 ranked wide receivers in 2019. For example, let’s use the WR1 from last year, Michael Thomas:
For complete transparency, Michael Thomas scored 67.8 fantasy points on his 9 scoring plays. The formula is simple: (9 receptions * 0.5 + 93 yards * 0.1 + 9 touchdowns * 6). From there, I took 67.8 divided by Thomas’ Half-PPR point total to achieve the % of points Thomas earned on scoring plays: 67.8 / 300.1 = 22.6%
I applied this same process to the rest of the Top 36 wide receivers for 2019 to build the table below.
Results and Key Takeaways
Now is as good of a time as any to add the disclaimer that this table does not factor in anything other than fantasy points scored on scoring plays (receiving and rushing) and the total half-PPR points that player scored in the 2019 season. It does not predict how a player’s talent will develop, it does not factor in their current QB situation, and it does not consider how their target share or efficiency will change in 2020.
Having said that, I believe the color-coding in this table can indicate some interesting things to consider when drafting wide receivers in 2020:
- Darius Slayton is a high-risk / high-reward draft pick: Slayton made up over half his production on his eight touchdowns alone. Either he has a special connection with the young gunslinger Daniel Jones from their time working behind the starters in camp last season, or this touchdown number dips and we find it hard to start Slayton on a weekly basis in 2020.
- If you’re betting on A.J. Brown and Kenny Golladay, you are betting on their talent leading to an increase in opportunity: Brown was surely a home-run hitter in fantasy lineups last year, and he started to feel more boom than bust given the wild efficiency Tannehill showed throwing the ball. Golladay is a more established talent, but he definitely benefited from deep-ball touchdowns. I think both of these guys have what it takes to improve on last year, but I am more confident in Golladay’s role in Detroit than Brown’s role on a run-first team in Tennessee.
- There are plenty of reliable wide receivers with upside for more touchdowns in 2020, but no one is a better candidate for positive regression than Robert Woods: Woods had only had three touchdowns in the 2019 season, with one of them being rushing and his longest receiving touchdown coming from 11 yards out. Despite this, he STILL managed to rank as the WR17 in Half-PPR scoring. If it’s your pick in the middle rounds of your 2020 draft and all the sexy breakout candidates are off the board, target Woods as a comeback candidate for your squad.
