This article looks at the makeup of elite dynasty Linebackers, so we can better evaluate incoming rookies that are more likely to be successful fantasy assets. All the players here are true “off ball” Linebackers. Pass rushing outside linebackers are grouped with the Defensive Ends for Anatomy analysis.
Combine & Pro Day testing are sourced from Sports Reference and Mockdraftable. College statistics are taken from Sports Reference with the Games Played taken from each player’s profile on their school website. This is because Sports Reference does not count games played when a player had no statistics, which in turn impacts their per-game statistics.
The Study Group
Like Defensive End, I’ve chosen to use a list of players who have achieved multiple high seasonal finishes instead of relying on current dynasty rankings. This list all players drafted since 2011 with either three top 12 seasonal finishes or four top 24 seasonal finishes at the Linebacker position, plus several early achievers. The following 21 players are included:
Draft Capital
First Round – 7 players
Second Round – 8 players
Third Round – 2 players
Fourth Round – 3 players
Fifth Round – 1 player
First Round draft capital was very important for Defensive Ends. However, the NFL does not value Linebackers as highly, so it makes sense to see more second rounders make the study group, as less Linebackers are first round picks. It’s worth noting that since 2011 there have been about 20% more second round Linebackers than first round Linebackers.
For the rest of the analysis, I’ve used all first and second round picks since 2011 as a control group when comparing other metrics.
Weight
Under 230 pounds – 3 players
230 to 239 pounds – 10 players
240 to 250 pounds – 7 players
Linebackers have been in a narrow range for their weight, with some exceptions on the smaller side (Deion Jones, Telvin Smith and Jaylon Smith are all between 218 and 223 pounds). There is a small handful of first and second round linebackers who have been over 250 pounds who did not turn out to be successful.
40-Time
4.50 seconds or faster – 4 players
4.51 to 4.60 seconds– 6 players
4.61 to 4.70 seconds – 7 players
4.71 to 4.80 seconds – 4 players
Joe Schobert and Kiko Alonso are the slowest players in the study group with a 4.76 and 4.74 second 40 yard dash times respectively. A 4.75 second 40 yard dash ends up being a decent threshold, however consider that the NFL has continued to move towards being a pass heavy league, and Linebackers now must be able to play in coverage to stay on the field enough to be fantasy relevant. At the same time there are quite a few players who fall within 4.51 and 4.70 seconds, so we don’t need to over emphasize the very fast players either.
20-Yard Shuttle
Under 4.2 seconds – 4 players
4.51 to 4.30 seconds – 5 players
4.31 to 4.40 seconds – 6 players
4.41 to 4.50 seconds – 1 player
The study group performed similarly to the control group for all other combine tests. I wanted to show the short shuttle results as that drill at least looks like it simulates the movement skills you would expect Linebackers to be good at, by measuring their ability to move side to side while diagnosing a play.
K.J. Wright is the player with the slowest short shuttle time (4.46). This drill gets skipped by a lot of players as well (7 of the 21 players in the study group), making it unhelpful.
Early Declares
(played 3 years in college)
Yes – 6 players
No – 15 players
Similar to Defensive End, being a 3 year college player isn’t an advantage for the Linebackers. Once you filter out all the study group players drafted after round 2 – none of whom declared early – the proportion of players that declared early from the study group is the same (35%) as all first and second round linebackers since 2011.
Career Tackles per game
Less than 5 tackles/game – 6 players
5 to 6 tackles/game – 3 players
6 to 7 tackles/game – 3 players
7 to 8 tackles/game – 4 players
Greater than 8 tackles/game – 5 players
Tackles per game in their first two college years (ie: FR, SO & RS-FR seasons)
Less than 2 tackles/game – 5 players
2 to 4 tackles/game – 3 players
4 to 6 tackles/game – 4 players
6 to 8 tackles/game – 6 players
Greater than 8 tackles/game – 2 players
This is an attempt to quantify whether a player was productive in college based on tackles per game. The interesting thing with the career tackle per game numbers is that all the players in the study group drafted after round two have less than 6 tackles per game for their career. Once the first and second round players are isolated only two failed to reach that mark (Deion Jones and Kiko Alonso). Meanwhile looking at all first and second rounders drafted since 2011, more than half (28 of 53 players) fail to reach the 6 tackles per game mark.
It is worth going back and looking at the career productivity of all drafted players to see if later round picks just aren’t as productive as their peers with better draft capital, but for now it should at least be concerning if a first or second round draft pick didn’t reach 6 tackles per game in college.
The threshold for Tackles per game in the first two seasons is about 4, but almost all the players who miss that mark miss the career 6 tackles per game mark as well.
Conclusion
This is the general anatomy of a dynasty Linebacker.
Round 1 or 2 Draft Capital
4.75 or faster 40-yard dash
6 career tackles per game (at least for first and second round picks).
There is a lot less that useable at Linebacker than there is at Defensive End, and that’s ok. It is better knowing that most testing does not matter so you don’t chase it. Personally, I have liked to chase players who declare for the draft early, but at least here I think I’ve shown that it isn’t worth your time to worry about.
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