Since Jax Falcone started the Anatomy Series in 2020, I’ve been a big fan of his work profiling each position, and I use his work for my own rookie draft preparation. However, I also play in several IDP dynasty leagues, so I wanted to repeat his work for some of the defensive positions so I can have a consistent process across all positions. This article is a look at top dynasty Defensive Ends and what they have in common.
The intention of this analysis is to show what elite dynasty Defensive Ends look like, aid in identifying future assets or potential outliers, and assist in setting up rankings for rookie drafts.
Combine & Pro Day testing are sourced from Sports Reference and Mockdraftable. College statistics are taken from Sports Reference with the Games Played taken from each player’s profile on their school website. This is because Sports Reference does not count games played when a player had no statistics, which in turn impacts their per-game statistics.
The Study Group
Instead of using current dynasty rankings, I’ve chosen to use a list of players who have achieved multiple high seasonal finishes. This list includes all players drafted since 2011 with either three top 12 seasonal finishes or four top 24 seasonal finishes at the Defensive End position, with a few early achievers added. The resulting list includes the following 22 players:
This list includes all “True Position” Defensive Ends, so players who have spend most of their careers as pash rushing Outside Linebackers (like Von Miller and T.J Watt) are included. It is worth noting that I have excluded all Defensive Tackles. They have a different role on the football field, and as a result have different profiles than Defensive Ends.
Draft Capital
Draft Capital is highly predictive at Defensive End. The NFL places a high premium on the position, so like Quarterback, most of the players on this list were first round draft picks, and most of the first round picks were drafted with picks in the first half of the round. Draft position within a round isn’t always significant for other positions, but for Defensive End it is.
First Round, Top 16 picks – 12 players
First Round, Bottom 16 picks – 4 players
Second Round – 1 player
Third Round – 3 players
Fifth Round – 1 player
UDFA – 1 player
The players drafted outside the first round include DeMarcus Lawrence (2nd), Danielle Hunter (3rd), Olivier Vernon (3rd), Justin Houston (3rd), Matt Judon (5th) and Shaquil Barrett (UDFA).
For the rest of the analysis, I’ve used all first round picks since 2011 as a control group when comparing other metrics
Weight
Under 250 pounds – 3 players
250 to 259 pounds – 5 players
260 to 269 pounds – 9 players
270 pounds and heavier – 5 players
The distribution amongst the study group is very similar to all first round picks as a whole. The general narrative is that is that smaller players can’t stay on the field for running downs, limiting their potential for tackles. Here there are several players under 250 pounds (Brian Burns, Hasson Reddick & Von Miller). On the opposite end, J.J. Watt was the heaviest player at 290 pounds.
40-Time
4.60 or faster – 4 players
4.61 to 4.70 – 8 players
4.71 to 4.80 – 7 players
4.81 or slower – 2 players
Generally, a 4.80 second 40 yard dash can be used as a threshold. The two outliers here are Joey Bosa and J.J. Watt, with both running close to the threshold time. Chase Young didn’t participate in any combine or pro day drills. A 4.80 second 40 yard dash is about a 60th percentile result for the position.
Vertical
Under 34 inches – 5 players
34 to 35.5 inches – 6 players
36 to 37.5 inches – 7 players
38 inches and higher – 2 players
The players with vertical jump under 34 inches are Nick Bosa, Joey Bosa, Shaquil Barrett, Ryan Kerrigan and Cameron Jordan. In addition to Chase Young, Josh Allen did not participate in the vertical jump. A 34 inch vertical is the 62nd percentile for the position, and while 25% of the study group jumped under that height, about 40% of First Round picks did as well, so this is useful as a threshold.
Agility Score
Agility Score is the sum of the 3 Cone and Short Shuttle times.
Under 11 seconds – 2 players
11 to 11.2 seconds – 3 players
11.2 to 11.4 seconds – 6 players
11.4 to 11.6 seconds – 5 players
Above 11.6 seconds – 3 players
In addition to Chase Young, Myles Garrett didn’t complete the agility drills and Brian Burns didn’t complete the short shuttle (but his 7.01 3 cone time is very good). The three players with agility scores higher than 11.6 seconds were all picked after the first round (DeMarcus Lawrence, Olivier Vernon & Matt Judon), whereas amongst all first round picks since 2011, 20% do not meet the threshold. If you prefer to use the individual test results instead, the thresholds are about 7.2 seconds in the 3 cone and 4.4 seconds in the short shuttle. Overall a 11.6 second agility score is about the 56th percentile for the position.
Early Declares
(played 3 years in college)
Yes – 8 players
No – 14 players
It has been well studied that Running Backs and Wide Receivers who declare early are far more successful than those who didn’t. Surprisingly for Defensive Ends, declaring early is not an indicator of future success.
College Production
Career Tackles for Loss per game
Less than 0.8 TFL/game – 5 players
0.8 to 1.0 TFL/game – 4 players
1.0 to 1.2 TFL/game – 7 players
Greater than 1.2 TFL/game – 6 players
Tackles for Loss per game in their first two college years (ie: FR, SO & RS-FR seasons)
Less than 0.4 TFL/game – 4 players
0.4 to 0.6 TFL/game – 5 players
0.6 to 0.8 TFL/game – 1 player
Greater than 0.8 TFL/game – 8 players
In an attempt to use production metrics as we do for Wide Receivers (Dominator Rating, Breakout Age, etc.), I’m looking at career Tackle for Loss per game production as a potential indicator. 0.4 Tackles for Loss in a player’s first two college years and 0.8 Tackles for Loss for their career both seem to be decent thresholds.
Several players don’t have any production in the early years for a variety of reasons. Both T.J. and T.T. Watt started their college careers as Tight Ends before transferring to Wisconsin and changing positions. Melvin Ingram started his collegiate career as a linebacker and Demarcus Lawrence played JUCO before transferring to Boise State.
Summary
This is the anatomy of a dynasty Defensive End:
First Round Draft Capital (preferably in the top half of the round)
4.80 second 40-yard dash or faster
34 inch vertical or better
11.6 second agility score or faster
0.8 career tackles for loss per game
0.4 tackles for loss per game during the first two years in college
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