Safety is a fickle position where there are fewer season-to-season repeats of high finishes. Safeties with good deployment are ideal, with good deployment typically characterized as having a high percentage of snaps at either the strong safety or linebacker position.
The Dan Quinn, Gus Bradley and their Seattle Seahawks “Legion of Boom” defense popularized defensive schemes with heavy use of Cover-1 & Cover-3 coverages throughout the 2010s, which typically gave us a strong safety on each team to target. Recently the defenses of Vic Fangio and Brandon Staley which use a lot more two-high safety coverages (Cover-2, Cover-4 & Cover-6) are spreading throughout the league which reduces the number of players getting the deployment we look for to achieve high tackle numbers.
In IDP leagues that group safeties and cornerbacks into a combined defensive back position, the majority of high seasonal finishes are by safeties. On average, 6-7 cornerbacks finish in the top 24 defensive backs. For that reason, this study includes Safeties only.
For this Anatomy of a dynasty safety, Combine & Pro Day testing are sourced from Sports Reference and Mockdraftable. Scouting grades (for players drafted since 2014) and scouting reports (all players) come from NFL.com.
The Study Group
Like defensive end and linebacker, this group is all players drafted since 2011 with either three top 12 seasonal finishes or four top 24 seasonal finishes, plus a couple of early achievers. The following 14 players are included:
The list of safeties is about two-thirds the size of the defensive end and linebacker lists. This is just worth noting that as discussed above, safety has fewer repeat performances than defensive end or linebacker and it should be adjusted accordingly when valuing the position in rookie drafts, startup drafts, or trades.
Mark Barron is included in this list even though some of his high finishes were as a linebacker. Mark Barron was drafted and used as a safety early in his career in Tampa Bay, then switched to linebacker during his first full season with the St. Louis Rams in 2015, his 4th NFL season. Jordan Poyer is excluded from the group for a similar reason, being that drafted as a cornerback.
Draft Capital
First Round – 5 players
Second Round – 6 players
Third Round – 3 players
Dynasty safeties come from anywhere in the first two days of the NFL draft. For the rest of this analysis, I’m using all players drafted in the first three rounds since 2011 to compare to the study group.
Kyle Hamilton projects to be a top 10 pick in this year’s draft, which would make him the third player in the last 12 years to be drafted in the top 10 picks (Jamal Adams – 6th in 2017 & Mark Barron – 7th in 2012). Early first round safeties are very rare.
Weight
Under 195 pounds – 1 player
195 to 204 pounds – 4 players
205 to 214 pounds – 5 players
215 pounds and higher – 3 players
Tyrann Mathieu is the clear outlier as he is 9 pounds lighter and 2 inches shorter than every other player on the list. Even with Mathieu included the distribution of player weight in the study group is similar to all safeties drafted in the first three rounds.
40-Time
40 Time
4.40 seconds or faster – 0 players
4.41 to 4.50 seconds – 6 players
4.51 to 4.60 seconds – 6 players
4.61 seconds or slower – 2 players
There was some disappointment when Kyle Hamilton ran a 4.59 second 40-yard dash at the combine, but it does not matter. He is within the range of the other players in the group.
Speed Score
Under 95 – 4 players
95 to 100 – 6 players
101 to 105 – 0 players
Above 105 – 4 players
None of the Combine tests matter much for safeties, although the 40-yard dash and speed score are perhaps a little meaningful. About 30% of both the study group and control group had a speed score under 95.
Early Declares
(played 3 years in college)
Yes – 8 players
No – 6 players
After not mattering for Defensive End or Linebacker, being a 3 year college player appears to matter at Safety. 57% of the study group declared early compared to 45% of all first rounders, 42% of all second rounders and 14% of all third rounders.
NFL.com Draft Grade
Under 6.00 – 2 players
6.00 to 6.20 – 0 players
6.21 to 6.70 – 5 player
6.71 and higher – 3 players
Numerical draft grades on NFL.com go back to the 2014 class and are used here to represent the player’s film grade. A grade of 6 is a projected backup, 6.3 is “eventually will be an average starter”, 6.7 is “year 1 starter”. Justin Simmons and Kevin Byard, the two third rounders who were graded, have the lowest grades.
The threshold here is a grade of 6.2. Of all first, second and third round picks since 2014, one third graded worse than 6.2. This was not exclusive to the third round picks either. 4 of the 15 first rounders did not meet that minimum grade and 5 of the 27 second rounders didn’t either.
Style of Play from NFL.com Draft Profile
Strong Safety – 6 players
Free Safety – 8 players
We like players who play closer to the line of scrimmage because they have a better change of getting tackles. Unfortunately, it is hard to project what their eventual NFL usage is when they are prospects. We do our best to project deployment, much like how we project red zone usage, 3rd down usage & target share with offensive players. It is always good practice to be aware of our limitations projecting the future, and to stay flexible for any options that come at us.
Conclusion
This is the anatomy of a dynasty Safety:
- Round 1, 2, or 3 Draft Capital
- Speed Score of 95 or higher
- Players who declare early for the NFL draft
- NFL.com grade of 6.2 or higher
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