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UNtangling the Waiver Wire (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 7)

Michael Reedy
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UNtangling the Waiver Wire (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 7)

Here we go yo, here we go yo,
So what so what so what’s the scenario,
Here we go yo, here we go yo,
So what so what so what’s the scenario,

So here comes Reedy with the scenario.

The scenario this week is an awful lot of Eagles players are going to be out.  So there are quite a few Eagles players you may want to add. There is a name I keep saying over and over, makes me feel like I am on rewind.  I do admit I love A Tribe Called Quest; and I am part of a tribe on a quest as the Undroppables are here to help you on that quest for championships!  I liked adding a song so much on my last article I had to do it again. Not sure if this will be a thing though, so don’t get all caught up in it.

Powerful impact, boom! From the cannon,
Not bragging, try to read my mind just imagine.

NOTE: This column refers to players rostered in under 50% of Yahoo leagues and ESPN Leagues.

Quarterbacks

Ryan Fitzpatrick – Blew the doors off the Jets in the first half.  FitzMagic has thrown multiple touchdowns and/or over 300 yards in 5 straight games now.  He has two games in a row with 3 touchdowns. The Dolphins offense is looking very good.  Fitzpatrick is currently the overall QB6 in fantasy. He is on a bye Week 7, but if available you should add him now.  48% rostered in Yahoo and 61% in ESPN.  10% FAAB.

NOTE:  May want to change this to Tua Tagovailoa 6% rostered in Yahoo and 6% rostered in ESPN.  Tua was just named the starter…no more magic.

Derek Carr – He has passed for at least 1 touchdown in each game this season and has multiple touchdowns in 4 out of 5 games.  The last two games Carr has played, he has thrown for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in each game.  He has a very friendly schedule for the rest of the season. Yes REALLY, Derek Carr. 23% rostered in Yahoo and 22% in ESPN. 8% FAAB

Other Quarterbacks to consider: Carson Wentz and Philip Rivers.

Running Backs

Justin Jackson – In Week 5 Jackson had 5 receptions for 23 yards and 15 carries for 71 yards.  20 touches is a nice workload for any running back.  For a running back facing the Jaguars in Week 7 it’s wonderful.  The Jaguars just gave up 180 yards and 3 touchdowns to the Lions’ running backs. Ekeler is still on IR and it’s weeks before he’s back in the line up.  45% rostered in Yahoo and 51% in ESPN. 20% FAAB

Boston Scott –  Miles Sanders left Sunday’s game with a knee injury.  Scott is his direct back up and has had some success filling in for Sanders in the past. The schedule is pretty friendly and the Eagles need weapons.   14% rostered in Yahoo and 10% in ESPN. 11% FAAB

J.D. McKissic –  If you are playing points per receptions and are running back needy, I would look at McKissic.  The last three games McKissic has 7 receptions for 40 yards in Weeks 4, 6 receptions for 46 yards in Week 5, and 6 receptions for 43 yards in Week 6.  In Week 6 he was second on the team in targets and receptions.  12% rostered in Yahoo and 23% in ESPN. 5% FAAB

Other running backs to consider: Gus Edwards and JaMichal Hasty.

Wide Receivers

Tim Patrick – Patrick has had a touchdown and/or 100 yards in each of the last 3 games.  In  Week 6 Patrick had 4 receptions for 101 yards.  Patrick has produced no matter who is throwing him the football and he goes after it.  A nice add if you are wide receiver needy. 18% rostered in Yahoo and 18% rostered in ESPN.  15% of FAAB

Travis Fulgham – Double digit targets in each of the past two weeks. Has a touchdown three games in a row. 25% target share in week 6. The Eagles were asking who would be the person to produce in the passing game, and the answer is Fulgham.  He is a thing.  31% rostered in Yahoo and 47% rostered in ESPN.  10% FAAB

Keelan Cole – Do you know who had 20% target share with 9 targets, 6 receptions and 143 yards on Sunday?  KEELAN COLE, that’s who.  Cole has 27 receptions, 362 yards and 3 touchdowns.  This projects out to 72 receptions, 965 yards and 8 touchdowns for the season.  Pretty nice receiver to add for next to nothing.  29% rostered in Yahoo and 14% in ESPN.  5% FAAB

NOTE: I never use tweets from the same person more than once in an article, but when someone confirms my analysis, what can I do?  Hint: if you put him on your roster, in PPR this isn’t bad news no matter what the Podfather says.

Christian Kirk –  Yes, he was a money maker for Week 6 against the Cowboys, and yes, I victory lapped his 86 yards and 2 touchdowns on 2 targets in the first half of the game. Kirk is seeing targets and he is producing well.  In Week 7 the Cardinals play the the Seahawks; the Seahawks are THE friendliest defense to wide receivers.  You get it right, add him and play him. 40% rostered in Yahoo and 43% in ESPN. 15% FAAB

NOTE: Say my name if you started him after reading Money Makers and Heart Breakers…say it REEDY!  it wasn’t that hard was it?

Other wide receivers to consider: Mike Williams, Tee Higgins and Henry Ruggs.  (All three mentioned here last week)

NOTE: Ruggs is about to break out big time; I mentioned him here last week.  Tee Higgins is only 43% rostered in ESPN… come on man. Mike Williams has great chemistry with Herbert, they were literally made for each other. I love all three!

Tight Ends

Dallas Goedert – He comes off of IR this week.  Ertz is out for 3-4 weeks. The Eagles need help with all of their injuries.  Goedert saw 17 targets in the first two games prior to his injury.  He is the top add at tight end if you are needy and many of us are. 40% rostered in Yahoo and 23% in ESPN. 10% FAAB

Trey Burton – Burton rushed for a touchdown and caught 4 passes for 58 yards and another touchdown against the Bengals.  On a bye in Week 7 but is getting more and more involved in the Colts offense.  20% rostered in Yahoo and 6% in ESPN. 2% FAAB

Anthony Firkser – Jonnu Smith tweaked his ankle in Week 6 and Firkser filled in with 8 receptions for 113 yards and a touchdown.  That was quite the Jonnu impersonation for the blocking tight end.  If Jonnu is out, Firkser has proven he will be able to fill in.  1% rostered in Yahoo and 0% rostered in ESPN.  2% FAAB

Other tight ends to consider: Rob Gronkowski, Daniel Fells and Irv Smith.

Remember to check out Kyle Larson’s Stream Options for Week 4 for a more in-depth look at defenses to stream.

Thanks for checking out our waiver wire column. For more great content from the Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back soon for Mike’s weekly Money Makers and Heart Breakers article.

War Journal | Midseason Dynasty Trade Review Pt. 2

Chalk
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War Journal | Midseason Dynasty Trade Review Pt. 2

All of these trades were made in 12 team Superflex Dynasty fantasy football leagues hosted by Chalk Leagues – PPR, 1.5 TE Premium, 6 pt TDs (vanilla scoring).

Part 1 (Trades 1 – 10)

Trade 11

Current Team State – (Disappointment – 12th Place) Dead last but 2nd in max points for, this team that was previously led by Lamar Jackson and Deshaun Watson has the most points against by around 100 points (over 5 weeks). What makes this disappointing season even tougher to swallow is that I traded my 2021 1st, 2nd and 3rd months ago to line up a deep run.

Give – Lamar Jackson + James White + Kyle Rudolph

Receive – Dak Prescott + Gabriel Davis + 2021 1st + 2nd

Process – When Dak went down I immediately decided to make a move for him in any Superflex league where I could get any sort of discount, however small it may be. Acquiring a talented QB in Superflex is extremely hard. Now try finding windows of opportunity where someone is actually willing to trade a top 5-10 signal-caller. With that in mind, I knew it was time to blow to run a quick reload on this team. We don’t know for certain what Dak will be like next year but I’m comfortable betting on him to return to form.

End Game – Reload for 2021 run 🔃

Trade 12

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 11th Place) Trading back in the startup draft yielded me five 2021 2nds as I went Robust RB/Zero WR. Currently, a strong RB stable (Mixon, Sanders, JT) coupled with solid TEs (Henry, Goedert) is held down by my QB2s (Baker, Stafford, Cousins). This roster also has several aging veterans such as Julian Edelman and Matthew Stafford that could be useful in trades.

Give – Baker Mayfield + 2021 1st

Receive – Dak Prescott

Process – Trying to make championship runs without a top 5 QB is hard to do, even with a pair of stud RBs. I still like Baker to an extent in dynasty but I needed to acquire more Dak.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 13

Current Team State – (Disappointment – 12th Place) Same team as in Trade 11.

Give – Tom Brady

Receive – 2021 1st

Process – Right on the heels of moving Lamar Jackson for Dak plus picks, I decided to keep moving time-sensitive assets for draft capital. I looked at the top 4-5 teams in the standings to see who needed a QB. I shot over some offers and now find myself with two 2021 1sts to add to a solid team.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 14

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 12th Place)

Give – Tom Brady + Damien Harris

Receive – Michael Gallup + 2021 4th + 4th

Process – It’s not a secret that you should trade away any veteran players with only 1-2 years left of production if you’re not contending. Get younger and stock on up tradeable assets. 4th round picks hardly amount to anything but if you can squeeze it out of a deal then do it. Looking at the current values in the trade, I may have lost it today but check back next year and tell me you wouldn’t swap Harris for Gallup and some free picks.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 15

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 11th Place) These next four trades are part of a complete rebuild. Bad luck starts with bad ideas. I believed this team was a promising contender so I traded my 2021 1st for Derrius Guice early in the offseason. I drafted Ke’Shawn Vaughn way too early. Then I lost Marlon Mack and Saquon Barkley while DJ Moore, Michael Gallup, and Irv Smith were slow out of the gate. This team sucks in 2020 but the next couple of years are looking better.

Give – Kirk Cousins

Receive – Robert Tonyan + 2021 2nd + 2022 1st

Process – There is no use in crying over spilled milk so that 2021 1st is long gone and all I can do is play to not let it become Trevor Lawrence while tearing it down for future assets. Therein lies the challenge (and the fun). 2022 isn’t as deep as 2021 but that doesn’t matter since I’ll be looking to move those 1sts next year when I’m ready to make a surprise run with a series of moves starting from this one. Again, I targeted 2020 contenders who had only one or two viable QBs. Not talking about having a 3rd like Dalton etc. Those leaguemates are probably a bit anxious with their QB depth with the ‘rona lurking and injuries occurring left and right. And to top it off, I got Tonyan (one of my favorite sleepers) as a throw-in. Always squeeze more.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 16

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 11th Place) Same team as in Trade 15.

Give – Teddy Bridgewater + 2022 4th

Receive – 2021 2nd + 2022 1st

Process – Right after I moved Cousins, I shopped Bridgewater cause I knew other contenders could have FOMO as they see trade activity. If you’re not competitive, move aging or uncertain QBs before it’s too late. It sucks being late to the party after someone already got a sweet deal but it’s even worse if you see another trade go down and you’re left out, again, stuck with a QB whose value is on the precipice of irrelevance on a weekly basis. I’m not saying Cousins or Bridgewater are on that level but would you build a contender around them? Trade aging (or uncertain) players, especially QBs and RBs, when you can get an optimal return.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 17

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 11th Place) Same team as in Trade 15.

Give – Ryan Fitzpatrick

Receive – 2021 3rd

Process – This is the third aging/uncertain QB I moved in a matter of days as I continued to recoup draft capital while taking out the trash. As soon as I saw this tweet from my friend Mike, I posted that Fitz was available for a 3rd in the league chat. The rest is history.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 18

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 11th Place) Same team as in Trade 15.

Give – 2021 2nd + 2nd

Receive – Drew Lock

Process – This was a questionable move given my “end game” but, in the end, young QBs are extremely valuable in Superflex dynasty leagues. I’m not sold on Lock. In fact, I don’t really like him but obtaining a young QB with weapons like Sutton, Jeudy, and Fant for two 2nds is not something you can do whenever you want. He may be a flop but so could those mid-round 2nds. The beauty of this is that I can attempt to trade Lock to a contender in the next few weeks if he returns healthy and consistently productive. After recouping a decent amount of draft capital, I was willing to sacrifice some to Lock in a QB2.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 19

Current Team State – (Pretender – 7th Place) This team is one of my favorites as it boasts Kyler, Tua, CMC, AJ Brown and now CeeDee but I knew it would likely need a year (or even two) of seasoning before it was ready to torch the league for the next 5 years.

Give – Cooper Kupp + Bryan Edwards

Receive – CeeDee Lamb

Process – Swapping an aging Kupp for Lamb was worth sacrificing one of my favorite 2021 prospects in Bryan Edwards. Lamb has the potential to be the overall dynasty WR1 over the next couple of years and you always chase that upside, especially when he’s can be at least a top 10 for the next 10. Sometimes you shoot your shot and it’s a million-dollar full court one.

End Game – Reload for 2021 run 🔃

Trade 20

Current Team State – (Pretender – 6th Place) This team is in the playoff mix but being honest with myself, I don’t see it winning it all.

Give – James Robinson

Receive – Laviska Shenault

Process – JRob is a nice surprise but he lacks real-life draft capital and tied to a regime that could be on the way out in 2021. Shenault is a rock-solid prospect and versatile weapon who should see a nice career. Robinson has the instant impact for a contender but I’m willing to give up fun today for a promising future. For those questioning Shenault’s durability, I’m remaining confident based on what I’ve been reading/hearing.

End Game – Reload for 2021 run 🔃

Unsung Heroes | Offensive and Defensive Line Matchups Week 6

Brad Wire
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Unsung Heroes | Offensive and Defensive Line Matchups Week 6

An unsung hero is someone who does great deeds, but gets little to no recognition for them. In football, the linemen who battle in the trenches are the unsung heroes that make the biggest impact on the game. In this weekly column we are going to shine a light on those unsung heroes and highlight some key match-ups to help you make your lineup decisions for Week 6. The offensive line advantage will be provided by Brad, with the defensive line advantage provided by Tommy Mo.

Offensive Line Advantage

Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Detroit Lions

The Jaguars have a luxury matchup this week against the lowly defense of the Detroit Lions. The Jaguars offensive line this year has been solid on the ground, but not great. However, they have been one of the weaker teams in pass protection allowing 13 sacks so far. The good news for Jacksonville, Detroit only has 5 sacks on the year and is allowing 5.57 YPC. Jacksonville on the other hand is averaging 4.5 adjusted line yards per carry, good for 11th overall per footballoutsiders.com. This should be a get right game all around for Jacksonville and I expect some big breakout runs from James Robinson along the way. Below is a play from Week 1 against the Colts that shows what this Jaguars team is capable of on the ground.

Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

We just watched the Ryan Fitzmagic led Dolphins dismantle this 49ers defense. Myles Gaskin only put up 57 yards on 16 carries, but that is also behind a porous offensive line. The 49ers also let Fitzpatrick hit a few deep shots, compiling a season best 350 yards on just 22 completions. This Rams group has vaulted all the way up to #11 in my oline rankings and has been the biggest surprise for me this year. After the season they had last year I did not think Andrew Whitworth and Rob Havenstein would be able to hold it together as well as they have. They have only given up 7 sacks on the year and are averaging 4.75 adjusted line yards per carry. Normally this wouldn’t be an advantage for the Rams, but the losses of Nick Bosa, Solomon Thomas, and even Dee Ford put San Francisco at a disadvantage. A little bit of good news for the 9ers is that Kerry Hyder Jr. has stepped up, already posting 3.5 sacks this year after only having 2 sacks in the last two seasons combined. Arik Armstead is the anchor that they need, but being heavily depleted two guys can only do so much. From coach speak this just might be the perfect week to fire up Cam Akers, I know a few of my fantasy teams would greatly appreciate it.

Indianapolis Colts vs. Cincinnati Bengals

I know the Colts didn’t look the best in Week 5 against the Browns and part of that was to be expected without starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo. They have a much better matchup this week against the Bengals who will be without newcomers D.J. Reader and Mike Daniels as possibly without Sam Hubbard. The Bengals biggest name left is Geno Atkins who just returned in Week 5 and played only 19 snaps. The Colts still have only allowed 5 sacks on the year, but they have left a lot to be desired on the ground, only having 3.95 adjusted line yards per carry, which lands them currently at 24th in the league. The good news? The Bengals are giving up almost 5 adjusted line yards per carry. Even with Geno Atkins getting healthier this looks to be the breakout game we have finally been waiting for from Jonathan Taylor. *Insert meditating Quenton Nelson here*

Defensive Line Advantage

Washington Football Team @ New York Giants

2020 has been the Chase Young and Montez Sweat show in Washington as the pair have already combined for 5.5 sacks on the season. While some forgot about Sweat, everyone knows Chase Young is coming and still haven’t been able to stop him. Young’s presence is allowing for Montez Sweat the opportunities to not draw double teams, which have allowed him to assume the lead in sacks with 3 from the opposite side of Young. The Giants are 25th in sacks given up with 3.2 sacks per game, and Washington is getting to the QB on 8.77% of snaps. Even if you’re not a big stats guy, these numbers make a recipe for disaster for the Giants this week and expect Daniel Jones to have even less time to throw those deep balls to Slayton. And in case you need a reminder, here’s what 4.42 speed off the edge can do to an offensive tackle…

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Talk about unsung heroes, the combo of Grady Jarrett and Charles Harris have been getting after opposing offensive lines and combining for 4.5 sacks on the year. Harris isn’t even listed as a starter on the team’s depth chart so he’s been making good with the opportunities he’s given. The Falcons defense is notoriously bad, giving up 32 points per game (2nd worst only ahead of Dallas), which means lots of opportunities for pass rushing. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook this week, so look for them to increase their (2nd worst in the league) passing attempts per game. The Vikings give up a sack on 8.55% of snaps, 27th worst in the league, and the Falcons get to the QB on 3.30% of snaps (30th). So while this isn’t necessarily a matchup where the Falcons will dominate the Viking’s line, the Vikings are outmatched on paper when it comes to this week’s game.

Battle of the Week

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Both of these matchups have a lot of intrigue and a lot of talent in the trenches for both teams. The divisional rivalry between the Browns and Steelers has some good battles across the board highlighted by Tommy Mo‘s Favorite Individual Matchup. On the flip side there is another good battle as we get to see how the rookie Jedrick Wills Jr. will handle T.J. Watt. However, the interior for the Steelers D-Line and Browns O-Line is one to keep a close eye on. If Wyatt Teller is playing there will be an all night brawl in there. The Browns interior from left to right Joel Bitonio (6th/75 for Guards per PFF), JC Tretter (2nd/35 for Centers per PFF), and Wyatt Teller (1st/75 for Guards per PFF) going against the Steelers Tyson Alualu (1st/117 for Interior Defender), Cameron Hayward (11th/117), and Stephon Tuitt (9th/117). Might have to switch off RedZone since I have a feeling this will be one amazing game.

Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

One of the few afternoon games might just keep me off RedZone all day as the Packers travel down to Tompa Bay. I just bumped the Packers up to #1 in my Offensive Line rankings and this will be a really good test for them. Tampa Bay has had one of the best run defenses for a few years since Todd Bowles arrived with Bruce Arians. They have only allowed 3.17 adjusted line yards per carry and already have amassed 17 sacks led by Jason Pierre-Paul and Shaquil Barrett who account for 7 of those. On the flip side of that we get to see what Tristan Wirfs can do after getting ragdolled by Khalil Mack last week. His matchups don’t get much easier with the Smith Bro’s on the outside. I talked about Wirfs’ rough upcoming schedule in my preseason rankings breakdown and hopefully he fares a little better this week with the longer rest. Both sides of the ball for both teams will be in for a good showdown.

Favorite Individual Matchups

Brad Wire – Taylor Moton (T- CAR) vs. Khalil Mack (OLB- CHI)

Moton has had a strong start to the 2020 campaign much like this Panthers unit as a whole. Per PFF, Moton has graded as the #10 overall Tackle. Khalil Mack has an innate ability to take over games. We all saw what he did in Week 5. This is not a juggernaut matchup, but it is one that I will be keeping an eye on. The less we hear about Moton throughout the game, the better.

Tommy Mo – Myles Garrett (DE- CLE) vs. Alejandro Villanueva (T-PIT)

Myles Garrett is currently 2nd in the league in sacks with 6, only behind the great Aaron Donald. Alejandro Villanueva has been a stalwart on the Steeler’s offensive line since 2016. This is Garrett’s first game against the Steelers since the Mason Rudolph incident last year. I would expect quite a reunion between the two, with some fireworks on the field, but this time with helmets remaining on.

Beer Money Bets | Creating a Process for NFL DFS Pt. 6

Brian O'Connell
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Beer Money Bets | Creating a Process for NFL DFS Pt. 6

Last week, I got back on track and won money on my early slate lineup. I cashed even though I made a major error and accidentally entered a tournament instead of my normal double-up contest. Ironically, I somehow almost perfectly won almost the exact same amount I entered and so I won almost the same I would have if I played a double-up contest. This gives me confidence that this process is not just going to work for cash games, but it might just need a slight tweak to be used in tournaments later on.  This week, I will review my large slate classic double-up from last week and get back to my showdown process.

Reviewing the Process

(Last week’s process)

  1. The teams with the highest implied totals were not the highest scorers last week. The good news is 4 out of 5 of the teams I focused on scored at least 27 points and only Atlanta disappointed with 16 points. I will keep this part of the process, it’s working. 
  2. My new value for WOPR adjusted projected points per $100 salary was an incredible success. It predicted the Brandin Cooks and Marquise Brown breakouts and Hopkins and Tyreek Hill both produced too. My 4 wide receivers averaged almost 25 points and so I am calling this a huge success. It’s so successful that I am going to give a nickname to that value and just call it PAWS from now on, or Projected points Adjusted for WOPR and Salary. In my other positions, Gurley boomed and CEH was okay but good enough to help me cash. 
  3. Logan Thomas and Matt Ryan busted. I will continue to use Logan Thomas if he continues at this price because if he eventually lives up to his opportunity, he will be an absolute steal. Matt Ryan was a miss. I screwed that QB selection up and will look to improve that part of my process.
  4. My cheap defense cashed again. The Texans DST scored 9 points for only $2600.

My wide receiver adjustment blew me out of the water, PAWS really worked and I am excited at how successful it was. I am going to consider using this in other contests from now on. 

It’s been a few weeks since I have looked at my showdown contest process and I think it needs some work.

New Revised Process for Showdown Double-Up

  1. Choose a game and sort the players by projected points. For my projections, I use data from Peter Howard but you can use whatever projections you want. Use players with the top 10 most projected points as a possible player pool to initially focus on.
  2. Use Vegas lines to see what type of contest the game applies to. We have 3 defined special categories: 
    1. Shootout – more than 50 total points.
    2. Slugfest – less than 40 total points.
    3. Blowout – Team won by 15+ points (Vegas lines almost never approach 15 points so I will apply this to games with spread greater than or equal to 7.5).
    4. If none of these apply, look at “All” category for guidance.
  3. Use the following charts from Kevin Cole (link and link to articles) to create a lineup. They’re listed in the Resources section at the bottom of the article.
    1. Choose a Captain first based on the chart in the resources section of the article. I have found a lot of success in avoiding QBs in the Captain spot to save salary. The only exception to not playing a QB as a Captain would be in slugfest games.
    2. Create a new value to compare players by multiplying projected points per $100 by their usage in optimal lineups. Compare these values with the chart for roster construction to fill out the lineup. If the salary makes it hard to find a final player at a cheap price, look cheaper values at the captain position. Do not be afraid to be creative with roster construction using these values to support the decision. 

The Process in Action:

Note: I made this process before Julio Jones was declared active. I do not think this changes anything as I do not think I would trust him in a lineup anyway this week. 

  1. I decided to look at the Atlanta vs Minnesota game. The 10 players with the most projected points are Ridley, Thielen, Cousins, Ryan, Mattison, Jefferson, Gurley, Hurst, Gage, and Zacchaeus.
  2. This game has an O/U over 50 so I am going to use the shootout ownership percentages. 
    1. With Dalvin out, I think Mattison is a smash play at Captain and the Captain chart has the RB1 on the favored team as the 2nd most common Captain on optimal lineups. 
    2. I created new values by multiplying projected points per salary by the optimal ownership percentage. I sorted by this value and came up with Cousins, Ryan, Mattison, Thielen, and Jefferson as the top 5. Before I had only used this to choose my entire 6 player lineup but all the top players have high salaries. This limits my ability to do this process. It also has not been very successful so going forward, I want to try only choosing 3 or 4 of my players from these top 10 players. I chose Cousins, Mattison, Thielen, and Jefferson and will look at the entire player pool to fill out my roster. Salary really limits the lineups with this game and it led me to an interesting play. Mike Boone is only $600 and seems like an absolute steal. I think he will be a little chalky because of his price but I don’t really care, the process says he is a good play. Finally, I need to find a Falcons player since the process has me playing all Vikings so far. This is when I notice something about my roster construction that could take it to the next level. With so many high salary, high projected points players, I think there is an edge to be made at playing Mike Boone at Captain. Boone is projected to score over a point per $100 salary and no other player comes even close. Playing Boone at the captain spot lets me have a stacked roster while having a serviceable Captain. This is a risk that I feel is supported by my process and we will see how it works out.

Example Lineup

PositionPlayerSalary
CPTMike Boone$900
FLEXKirk Cousins$9,800
FLEXTodd Gurley II$8,600
FLEXAlexander Mattison$8,600
FLEXCalvin Ridley$10,400
FLEXAdam Thielen$10,200
Total:$49,100


My process in action was all over the place and I think that is okay. I have yet to really struggle fitting all the players I wanted into the lineup yet this season. By writing out my thought process, I can go back and see where I went wrong. Good luck this week and if you have any questions, you can find me on Twitter @bpofsu. Also for all of your DFS needs, check out Paulie’s DFS Sleepers and Michael Reedy’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers here at the Undroppables. 

 

War Journal | Midseason Dynasty Trade Report Pt. 1

Chalk
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War Journal | Midseason Dynasty Trade Report Pt. 1

The 2020 season has been an unpredictable rollercoaster, marred by injuries and the threat of COVID lurking in every team’s facility. And like most of you, I have not been immune to the ill effects of the chaos. Whether it’s an underperforming team that I (prematurely) pegged as a “contender” or one that is surprisingly exceeding expectations, recent articles from my colleagues have reminded me that this is the time to make moves and being proactive will always yield better results (See Trade Target Tilt and Navigating Trades). Don’t be the 2nd person in line at the buffet… cause we eating!

I have made 26 dynasty fantasy football trades during the past 14 days and decided to break down 20 of them by providing a look behind the scenes of the deal: the current state of my team and process behind each move. Remember that making trades isn’t about winning them. It’s about winning leagues whether that is this season or next.

All of these trades were made in 12 team Superflex Dynasty fantasy football leagues hosted by Chalk Leagues – PPR, 1.5 TE Premium, 6 pt TDs (vanilla scoring).

Trade 1

Current Team State – (Pretender – 7th Place) Came into this season with “contender” expectations although the core is young and somewhat unproven (Sanders, Moore, Golladay, Deebo, Andrews). RB and WR are positions of strength or at least abundance. QB is a slight concern with Jones, Darnold, and Roethlisberger, although Herbert has been a nice surprise.

Give – Josh Jacobs + Darius Slayton

Receive – Saquon Barkley + Tee Higgins + 2021 2nd

Process – I don’t see this team realistically winning it all this year so I decided to jump on the opportunity to acquire a (still) top 5 RB in Saquon Barkley who comes with a “I just tore my ACL” discount. I was not only able to receive a 2nd for my troubles but swapped Slayton for a hot young asset in Tee Higgins. This trade allows me to stay somewhat competitive while stashing Barkley for a stronger run in 2021. The 2nd round pick will be useful to acquire a rental-type RB if I stay competitive. Depending on your team situation, pivoting to players like Barkley and Dak Prescott who have been lost to season-ending injuries can yield assets on top of receiving the better player in the deal.

End Game – Reload for 2021 run 🔃

Trade 2

Current Team State – (Pretender – 6th Place) This team has been a pleasant surprise as it was one that I expected to be competitive in a year or two. RB is my position of strength, headed by Miles Sanders and Jonathan Taylor but this team sorely lacks QB firepower which is a major disadvantage. Jimmy Garoppolo is fading and Teddy Bridgewater doesn’t instill confidence in my chances for a championship level run. In terms of WR, JuJu Smith-Schuster and DJ Chark haven’t met my high hopes although Hunter Henry and Robert Tonyan have been nice surprises at TE.  I also accumulated four 2021 1sts during the startup draft which sets me up nicely for the future and/or figure out my QB situation.

Give – Antonio Gibson + 2021 1st + 4th

Receive – Saquon Barkley

Process – At the time of this trade, I was in 6th place, in the thick of what could be a bloody playoff race. This league is one of the most active so there is potential for an arms race. Realizing that I don’t have enough for a real run at it this year, I decided to upgrade at RB when Saquon Barkley went down with his ACL injury (see above). Others may be fading him, but I have not dropped him much in my dynasty rankings. If you are not contending this year, you should look to acquire top-shelf talent like Saquon and Dak Prescott when there is uncertainty and panic. These guys should be fine in the long term and I’m willing to bet on that (with that discount)! This trade leaves me still with three 2021 1sts and now Barkley on IR waiting to join Sanders and JT next season. Chasing an elite QB is an option on the table looking ahead.

End Game – Reload for 2021 run 🔃

Trade 3

Current Team State – (Contender – 6th Place) This was a team that I felt was prepared to make a deep playoff run with Alvin Kamara and Josh Jacobs as my cornerstones, but aside from them, RB depth has been a concern from the start. With season-ending injuries to players like Marlon Mack and bye weeks starting to hit, I was left at a crossroads to wing it over the next few weeks and possibly slip out of the playoff picture or make a move to solidify my chances of success in 2020.

Give – Jalen Hurts + 2022 1st

Receive – Antonio Gibson + 2022 2nd

Process – Gibson is an ideal target for a contender that needs some punch at RB3 or Flex. He has lost some of his initial hype as the Washington offense falls into disarray but his upside remains extremely high. I decided to trade a developmental (but promising) QB in Jalen Hurts for a player who is ready to produce now in Antonio Gibson. Man, I really like Hurts as a future QB prospect, but Gibson’s upside is unlimited (and untapped). Although he is in a precarious offense for the time being, talent over situation, always. Being able to offset the blow of losing a future 1st by squeezing a 2nd in return will help me sleep at night. Winning it all this year will make those dreams even sweeter.

End Game – Title Run 🏆

Trade 4

Current Team State – (Disappointment – 10th Place) Coming into this season, I traded Christian McCaffrey and Russell Wilson (oof) in blockbuster deals that yielded me a king’s ransom of my favorite players –  Kyler Murray, Miles Sanders, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, DJ Moore, Chris Godwin, AJ Brown – and picks. The league considered me a favorite to win it in 2020 but Carson Wentz and Jimmy G haven’t been consistent and injuries have befallen my team. At the time of this trade, I was sitting at the bottom of the standings from a win-loss perspective but one of the top teams when considering max points for. This is probably a mixture of bad luck and bad roster management as I’ve left a significant amount of points on the bench.

Give – 2021 1st + 2021 2nd + Kyle Allen

Receive – Terry McLaurin + 2021 3rd  + 2021 4th

Process – Analyzing the standings and my team, I decided to make a move to contend. I am currently 2 games back and now face the last place team where I am an overwhelming favorite. It’s still early enough in the season and if I can tack on 3 or 4 wins over the next month, I will find myself in the playoff mix. Terry McLaurin is a player I have been able to acquire without pushback as fantasy managers seem to be concerned with his current QB situation. But a top 20 WR that’s been putting up numbers for over a full season now is a player I would love to slot into my WR core of Godwin, Moore, Stefon Diggs, and Will Fuller. This move definitely re-energizes my team to make a move for, at worst, the 6th playoff spot. Looking at my projected points (with a heavy grain of salt), my team looks really solid on paper now.

End Game – Title Run 🏆

Trade 5

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 9th Place) One of my many teams that took an early hit when Derrius Guice was released by the Washington Football Team. I have been treading water, but any chances of staying competitive were shot when Dak Prescott suffered a season-ending ankle injury.

Give – Dalvin Cook + Mike Boone

Receive – Terry McLaurin + 2021 1st + 2nd + 2nd

Process – With Sanders and JK Dobbins on my roster, I felt that moving on from the oft-injured Dalvin Cook for what I considered to be top value would be a good call for a team that could use more draft capital. I would still have two solid RBs to build with while accumulating picks and adding McLaurin. Whether you’re contending or looking to build over time, players like McLaurin are reasonable pivots from elite young WRs like DK Metcalf and AJ Brown.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 6

Current Team State – (Contender – 6th Place) This team has been somewhat of a disappointment with McCaffrey and Godwin being sidelined, Joe Mixon being inconsistent, and Leonard Fournette turning into a pumpkin overnight. With all that, this squad still has enough firepower to make a deep run. The biggest issue with this team is the trio of aging QBs (Rodgers, Cousins, Brady) in a league where QBs are scarce (literally none of the wire) and sharp leaguemates highly value them (deservedly so).

Give – Aaron Rodgers + James White

Receive – 2021 1st + 2nd + 3rd

Process – I’m confident my team will be competitive in the playoff race when CMC returns as long as Brady and Cousins stay healthy so I decided to go ‘no safety’ and roll with only two QBs in Superflex (not usually recommended). From here, I can make a deep run (and trade those picks for a different QB) or retool with a full set of 2021 draft picks as I had only a 4th before the trade. Remember that it is always easier to trade away picks for players than the other way around. At this juncture, I prefer to move the 1st for a young QB but I need to move Rodgers first because rebuilding teams won’t take ARod in return for a young QB. In addition, it’s time to get off James White for anything of value. I have been moving him as much as possible (as you will see). A couple of other notes about this league: (1) QBs are scarce and tightly held and (2) rookie pick values skyrocket during the draft.

End Game – Do I try to make a run this year or look to reload this offseason?  ❓

Trade 7

Current Team State – (Contender – 6th Place) Same team as in Trade 6.

Give – 2021 1st + Chase Edmonds

Receive – Justin Herbert + Devonta Freeman

Process – This deal happened a mere couple of hours after Trade 6. I had to move quick and opened negotiations with a rebuilding team that is clearly looking to add 1sts. The process is here is similar to changing out the parts of the plane while in flight. Instead of trying to add a top-shelf instant point producer at the RB or WR position, I used the 2021 1st as trade bait and made a move for Justin Herbert. I will admit that I had some remorse after trading away ARod and seemingly (rage) tearing down a contender, but I kept grinding and stayed busy in the DMs. As mentioned above, this team has a limited window to make a title run and by adding Herbert as a swap for Rodgers, I get younger at QB while adding one of the hottest young stars. My brother, Terminator, has been high on him from the jump.

End Game – Championship Window Extension 🏆

Trade 8 (+ Bonus)

Current Team State – (Pretender – 6th Place) This team is ready for a deep title run but sorely needs depth at the RB position (with Barkley shelved on IR). I also have a war chest full of future picks that make this a formidable squad in the long term. The quandary was improving the roster incrementally (but impactfully) with limited spend.

Give – 2022 2nd

Receive – Myles Gaskin + 2022 4th

Process – Without sacrificing any 2021 draft picks, I was able to land a rental RB for the rest of the season. This took patience and negotiation. Gaskin has relegated Jordan Howard and Matt Breida to fantasy irrelevance and my The Undroppables colleagues have been touting Gaskins since he was an incoming prospect (See Tommy and Paulie).

Bonus Trade & Process – While writing this article, I received an offer for Gaskins in exchange for a 2021 3rd + 2022 4th. I counter-offered to send Gaskin this contender for a 2021 2nd + 2022 2nd. He has been hot on the Miami RB so I gladly moved him for a quick profit and now find myself trade market again. My buddies are high on Myles and I liked him during the pre-draft process. But I’m not fully committed to him and I don’t know what Miami will do in the offseason with packed rookie and free agent classes. After the math, I basically received a 2021 2nd + 2022 4th to rent Gaskin for a week (and his 20.10 PPR points in Week 5). Still a pretender, I have three 2021 1sts, two 2nds, and a 3rd so we will see what is next.

Give – Myles Gaskin

Receive – 2021 2nd + 2022 2nd

End Game – Do I try to make a run this year or look to reload this offseason?  ❓

Trade 9

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 12th Place) This team was going to be a productive struggle from the startup draft. I have a promising young core with a mix of proven and rising elite players but decimated by injury after injury (e.g., McCaffrey, George Kittle, Dallas Goedert, Marlon Mack, Denzel Mims, Sterling Shepard, Sam Darnold).

Give – Myles Gaskin

Receive – 2021 2nd + 3rd

Process – This is an example of negotiating value from a deal based on the current state of your team. If you’re rebuilding then trade away time-sensitive assets for draft capital but always negotiate from a position of leverage. Seek teams that are RB needy and want to make a quick upgrade but don’t be greedy. Also, let the market come to you so you don’t come across as desperate. As I mentioned above, I do like Gaskin (for a contender) but beyond 2020 is a concern for a team that needs to reload and accumulate assets in the war chest. This team needs more firepower in 2021 and these draft picks are a step in that direction.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

Trade 10

Current Team State – (Rebuild – 12th Place) Same team as in Trade 9.

Give – James White

Receive – Gabriel Davis + 2021 4th

Process – James White has been a consistent PPR RB for several years but the clock is ticking on his ability to produce those types of numbers we’ve come to expect. For teams that are not going to be contending, there is no use keeping players like White. Trade for what you can get in return and move on. I’m extremely high on Gabriel Davis and with the recent improvements from Josh Allen, Davis is a nice potential flex option down the road. White’s value will only decrease over the next year.

End Game – Productive Struggle (compete within 2-3 years or sooner) 🚧

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