The Commish Tommy Mo is back to bring you a bucket of Free Nuggets for the entire slate of Week 5 games, going over the best starts & sits for each game this week. Check it out and hit me up on Twitter @2on1FFB for all your start/sit, trade advice, and fantasy football questions.
A Thin Goal Line Between Love & Hate | Week 5
Thirty-four years ago this week the Fox Broadcasting Company became the fourth commercial broadcast television network in the U.S. when it debuted The Late Show, hosted by Joan Rivers. Despite the rub from the affluent Rivers and hit shows like the X-Files and Beverly Hills 90210, the Fox Network lacked credibility and wasn’t considered a major rival to the “Big Three” companies (ABC, CBS, NBC).
All that changed in December of 1993.
The NFL’s decision to go with Fox continues to reverberate around the sports world, not only with football but in the way sports rights costs are perceived by networks to this day. Fox began treating the NFL as entertainment. Not only with their big on-air personalities but with the implementation of such things as the score box, the first down line and the overall production value which brought viewers closer to the game.
A lot of you are probably too young to remember the NFL without Fox but they truly revolutionized the way football is enjoyed. This column isn’t splitting any atoms but hopefully you enjoy it. Which is the entire point of this fantastical hobby of ours. Now, on to the touchdowns!
Wide Receivers
Don’t look now but the Panthers have won two in a row! The rushing defense is improving but the story is the right arm of one Theodore Bridgewater. During the current two game winning streak Bridgwater has thrown for 572 yards and 3 touchdowns. His favorite target? Robby Anderson. Anderson is PPR WR9 on the strength of 28 receptions and 377 yards. The only thing missing are the touchdowns. Enter the Falcon! The Falcons are the worst defense this side of Dallas. They’re particularly susceptible to the deep pass. Anderson gets free for a deep one but the Falcons get off the schneid.
Will Fuller is healthy. Well, as healthy as Will Fuller gets. And despite the shutout pitched by Baltimore in week two he’s developed into QB DeShaun Watson’s most reliable target. The talented speedster has scored two weeks in a row. Let’s make it three. The Jaguars are one of the worst teams defending opposing QBs and can be exploited on the back end.
Darius Slayton currently has a 20% target share of one of the most voluminous passing offenses in the league. That makes him extremely attractive against a Dallas secondary that has allowed 8 touchdowns to outside receivers and given up an average of 35 PPR points per game to the opposition’s top option. It would be a minor miracle if he doesn’t score.
Hollywood. Most people think of Rodeo Drive or the walk of fame. I think of the P’Casso song by the same name.
“I’m livin Hollywood now without the fame
Just a lil’ bit of money I’m about my game
I’m about my name, I’m about my strife ”
Marquise Brown owners know all about that strife. He hasn’t scored since week 15 of last season. It’s time to be about that game, Marquise and earn the name Hollywood. Two scores this week for the speedster.
Running Backs
James Robinson has been an absolute lineup lock. If you scored him off your leagues waiver wire, kudos! You’ve got yourself a gem. According to ESPN, The Texans have allowed the most rushing fantasy points and fifth most points per carry this season. And they just fired their head coach and the franchise is in complete disarray.
The Jaguars are almost as bad against opposing rushers at their division counterpart. That’s great news for David Johnson who is coming off back to back games of either a season low YPC or Snap percentage. Expect the veteran to get back on track this week.
Todd Gurley has been a touchdown machine so far this season. Scoring four times so far. He gets a Carolina defense who have been historically bad at defending opposing running backs since last year. I expect lots of points in this one and for Gurley to keep his streak alive.
All Aaron Jones does is score touchdowns… and even though the Packers are on a bye I have no doubt that the talented RB will find a way to score this weekend. 😀
Matt Breida hasn’t done much of anything for the Dolphins this year, but if they give him the rock he’s going to be extra motivated by the opposition.
Tight Ends
If you follow me you know that I was big on Eric Ebron this summer. I expected him to have quite the red zone presence in Pittsburgh and so far this season he has a 16% target share. The Eagles are quickly turning into this year’s Arizona Cardinals. Their linebackers can be exploited in coverage. They’ve given up a 26/276/5 line to opposing tight ends.
Evan Engram is getting plenty of volume. He is currently third in the NFL in targets to the position, including a 10 target game last week. Unfortunately, he is sporting a rather pedestrian 4.6 ADOT. The talented tight end seems to be struggling to recover from the Lisranc surgery that sidelined him for the final 12 games of 2019. But these Cowboys couldn’t cover butt quack with feathers. Get Engram in your lineup.
Darren Waller is a cavalcade of fantasy production. And he loves the Chiefs. In two games last year he caught 13 of 17 targets for 163 yards. They did manage to keep him out of the end zone but the talented TE rectifies that this weekend.
Respect the Flex (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 5)
Welcome to The Undroppables weekly “Flex” play article, bringing you the flex suggestions for your league. As stated in previous articles, this article is written to help with difficult start options. If you boast a very strong team full of star caliber players, do not overthink it and switch out your guys. Lock in your studs and go with the safe points. For those not as lucky, we got you covered.
Our consensus panel now boasts a record of 12-5 as we head into week 5. To send your questions for future weeks, you can tag me @KayneRob on Twitter.
Let’s get to it!
Flex Plays of the Week:
Shallow League Flex Plays (10 or fewer teams)
Tyler Lockett vs Minnesota Vikings
Lockett looks to have a big bounce back week and couldn’t have drawn a better secondary matchup for just that. This is Wilson’s go to target and I can’t imagine he will allow him to have another poor outing. Fire him up with full confidence as both he and DK Metcalf should eat!
CeeDee Lamb vs New York Giants
Lamb continues to produce consistently on this pass heavy offense. I believe the Cowboys will be looking to make a statement after last week’s ugly loss. Look for them to run up the score and CeeDee to continue with his success in the slot. His slot role will also allow him to avoid Bradberry in coverage which only helps his case.
Standard League Flex Plays (12 teams)
Mike Davis @ Atlanta Falcons
Mike Davis has fit into the CMC role fairly well being a great play in all 3 weeks that he has seen the field. Now he will be fired up in a juicy matchup vs a team that hasn’t been very good at defense at all. His usage in the pass game is the best asset that makes him a solid flex each week. I would feel very comfortable starting Davis this week. You’ll want to get his plays in while you can prior to the return of McCaffrey.
Joshua Kelley @ New Orleans
This play is solely due to opportunity with Ekeler being lost long term to injury. The saints have stopped the run fairly well in 2020 thus far but not enough to scare me off of a starting running back as a flex play. Kelley has had some struggles over the past 2 weeks. Yet, the Saints have given up double digit fantasy point to an RB the past 3 weeks, so I am not shying away from Kelley.
Deeper League Flex Plays (14 or more teams)
Olamide Zaccheaus vs Carolina Panthers
Zaccheaus saw a good deal of targets due to the re-aggravated injury suffered by Julio Jones. I expect his role to be fairly similar with Julio likely out making him a nice deeper league flex play. The opportunity should be present and Carolina’s secondary isn’t very good. This is a matchup I feel comfortable starting WRs against.
Chase Edmonds @ New York Jets
Drake has had some health concerns but he has also produced very poorly. He has seen a healthy amount of pass work and with a matchup vs the Jets he may see the field a bit more in this likely blowout. I would only lock him in for deeper leagues but the opportunity could be present.
Boom or Bust Flex Plays:
Mecole Hardman vs Las Vegas Raiders
Mecole saw his snaps increase in week 4 vs the New England Patriots. It seems as though he may be usurping Robinson in the pass catchers rotation. Hardman has found the end zone in each of the pass two week. Raiders games have been high scoring so I like the TD upside.
Jamison Crowder vs Arizona Cardinals
Normally Crowder is a smash flex play. That being said Flacco is in at QB and that isn’t super promising to me. He is by far the best separator on the team so I think he will see the targets. That being said without Darnold throwing the ball, I believe he becomes a more boom or bust play looking for the score.
Damien Harris vs Denver Broncos
I avoid the Patriots backfield as best as I can. Yet Cam is out with COVID, Sony is out with an injury, and Harris was very productive with the totes in week 4. Also the backup QBs both proved to be troublesome, so I think Harris will see a healthy number of looks. This is more boom or bust due to Belichick always throwing curveballs so there is that inherent risk.
The Undroppables Survey Says:
Best for last, we go back to Twitter asking for your hardest flex questions. Below are some of those questions we received with a panel of 5 Undroppables bringing you our consensus votes for Week 5:
Jerrick McKinnon or Will Fuller? I’m changing my mind pretty much hourly.
— Martin (@martinrmcgregor) October 8, 2020
The Undroppable Consensus: Will Fuller (4 votes)
Reason: If Mostert doesn’t play, this is close. Will Fuller looks like the solidified WR1 in Houston. Houston has a top 5 implied team total –@BpoFSU
The Undroppables Consensus: If this is PPR; James White (4 Votes)
Reason: In PPR formats White has the safer floor. With MT possibly coming back this week I want nothing to do with Sanders who has bee inconsistent at best. –@KayneRob
The Undroppables Consensus: David Johnson (5 votes)
Reason: I can’t trust Drake’s usage at this point and the Texans should be fired up without B.O.B’s dark cloud looming over them. –@BradWireFF
The Undroppables Consensus: Justin Jefferson (5 votes)
Reason: This is a close call, when it’s close I will take the great match up. Jefferson is going up against the easiest pass defense in the league. Thielen and Jefferson should have good days. –@MikeReedyFF
The Undroppables Consensus: N’Keal Harry (if they play) (3 votes)
Reason: Both are playing games that could be postponed. I would play the first guy that we are sure is playing. If Pats play Monday night I am locking in Harry. Jonnu should see a ton of targets but the uncertainty plays a part. –@DynoGameTheory
In Summary:
To be featured and get your flex questions answered each week feel free to tag or DM @KayneRob throughout the week. For last minute game day decisions, check out “Under the Wire” on the Fantasy Football Chat Discord.
See you next week!
Money Makers and Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 5)
This week I had an interesting interaction on Twitter. Apparently, a lot people feel very strongly about not having players on bad teams rostered on their own fantasy team. The player in question was Jamison Crowder, where many people felt the person asking the question should drop Crowder in a redraft PPR league.
Crowder’s stats through the 2 weeks he has played:
Week 1: 13 targets, 7 receptions 115 yards and 1 touchdown with a 37% of the target share. WR-5 finish for week 1!
Week 4: 10 targets, 7 receptions 104 yards with a 23% of the target share. WR-16 finish for week 4!
In the two weeks he has played he has been a top scoring wide receiver. This is not a player you drop in a points per reception format or any format to make room on your roster because he plays for a bad team. Each week he is seeing double digit target share as the primary receiver on a team that will be throwing the ball a lot. The Jets have a small passing tree where Crowder and then Herndon are getting more than half the targets of the entire team. In PPR that is exactly the kind of player you not only want on your team but in your starting line-up. So please lets stop the “drop the guy on the bad team” stuff, this is a bad take.
Whew, now that I have that off my chest on to this week’s Money Makers and Heart Breakers.
Money Maker – I think this person will perform well this week and be better than expectations
Heart Breaker – These players will not have a good week
Quarterbacks
💰 Money Makers
Joe Burrow– Burrow has three 300 yards games in a row and this week will be playing the Ravens. Though a good defense, the Ravens are easier to throw on than to run against. Last week Dwayne Haskins threw for 314 yards against the Ravens and ran for a touchdown. I don’t want to say Burrow is better than Haskins and has better weapons than Haskins, because I am a kind man, but I think we all know the answer; Burrow is better than Haskins and has better weapons than Haskins. ($7,300 on Fanduel and $6,000 on DraftKings)
Danny Jones– O Danny boy… O Danny boy… O Danny boy hasn’t looked great so far. I think people were wondering if has has come down with something. The truth is his offensive line is pretty bad and the first 4 weeks of the season brought him defenses that are tough against the pass. Well luckily Week 5 is here and it brings the Dallas Sieves, sorry Cowboys, secondary. The Cowboys have given up 3 or more touchdowns to the passing game in each of the past three weeks. This match-up is just the one to act as a get right game for Jones, and I believe the 3 touchdown trend will continue in week 5. ($7,000 on Fanduel and $5,400 on DraftKings)
Teddy Bridgewater– In Week 4 Bridgewater was amazing, throwing for 276 yards and 2 touchdowns and running for another 32 yards and 1 touchdown on the ground. In Week 5 he gets the Falcons defense that is by far the friendliest defense to Quarterbacks there is. They have given up over 300 yards every week in the air to the position and multiple touchdowns weekly as well. He is a must start if you are streaming QBs. ($7,100 on Fanduel and $5,900 on DraftKings)
For more information on why to play Teddy check out Kyle Larson‘s The Stream Option.
Other quarterbacks I like in week 5:
There is the obvious: Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson.
The not so obvious: Kirk Cousins, Justin Herbert, and Gardiner Minshew.
💔 Heart Breakers
Baker Mayfield– If you were looking to play Mayfield; last week was the time. This week he draws the Colts and the toughest match-up he has seen all season. Take into account he hasn’t been that good, rating out as the QB-21 or worse every week, and factor in the Colts have been the stingiest defense to QBs this season, it becomes a much clearer picture to walk away from. Sit him, waive him, don’t even look at him.
Others quarterbacks to avoid: Nick Foles, Philip Rivers, Kyle Allen, Joe Flacco, and Derek Carr.
Running Backs
💰 Money Makers
Kareem Hunt– Hunt has the backfield mostly to himself with the Nick Chubb injury. The match-up isn’t easy against the Colts defense. but the Browns are the best running team in the NFL. Expect Hunt to dominate the touches, only getting a breather from D’Ernest Johnson (watch him this week too) when necessary. Hunt will be utilized heavily in both the pass and run game, which is exactly what you want to spend on. We are looking at a top 12 finish for running backs this week easily. ($7,000 on Fanduel and $6,500 on DraftKings)
I am not the only one high on Kareem Hunt:
KAREEM HUNT STONKS 📈📈 pic.twitter.com/H23M6X48Df
— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) October 7, 2020
Mike Davis– Since he has taken over the running back duties for the Panthers he has produced both through the air and on the ground. Davis is averaging 7 targets per game and last week had 81 yards and a touchdown on the ground as well. Last week the Falcons gave up 8 receptions and 95 yards to Jamaal Williams, Davis will produce in Week 5. ($7,000 on Fanduel and $6,400 on DraftKings)
James Robinson– Robinson has touched the ball at least 17 times per game. The Jaguars play the Texans in Week 5. The Texans have managed to allow the 4 worst defenses against running backs so far this season, giving up well over 100 yards and a touchdown every single week. Robinson is a great play in week 5. ($6,600 on Fanduel and $6,700 on DraftKings)
Other running backs to play:
The obvious: Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Chris Carson, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook.
The not so obvious: Todd Gurley, Joshua Kelley, and Ronald Jones.
💔 Heart Breakers
Myles Gaskin– Gaskin has been solid so far as the starter this season for the Dolphins. This week though he goes up against the Niners and the league leading run defense. The Niners have not given up 100 yards on the ground or through the air to a running back this season and also have only given up 1 touchdown to the position. That will most likely continue in Week 5.
Miles Sanders– Sanders is a case of if you have him rostered you are definitely playing him, even when you know it won’t end well. This week he draws the Steelers, who are the second best defense against the run. He may produce in the air this week but that is probably the only place it is happening, if it does. The Steelers have not allowed more than 70 yards on the ground this season. Sanders is going to need to fall into the Endzone to make his week palatable for fantasy purposes.
Other running backs that will cost you in week 2: Le’Veon Bell, Melvin Gordon, and Rams Running Backs.
Wide Receivers
💰 Money Makers
Darius Slayton– Slayton is a guy who has 38% share of his teams air yards and has seen at least 6 targets in each of this seasons games. If you were wondering when the right time was to pop him back in your line up was, the time is now. As alluded to in the Daniel Jones write-up, outside Wide-Receivers have been torching the Cowboys D to the tune of either 100 yards and/or a touchdown this season. Fire up Slayton and expect big things this week. ($5,800 on Fanduel and $4,800 on DraftKings)
Dallas has given up the week’s number one overall WR each of the last three weeks
Week 2 – Calvin Ridley with 2 TDs
Week 3 – Tyler Lockett with 3 TDs
Week 4 – OBJ with 2 TDsDarius Slayton pic.twitter.com/7aFoUn4SeV
— Randell “Memphis” Young (@DWZMemphis) October 7, 2020
DJ Moore– You can add Robby Anderson if you are wondering to this as well. The Panthers passing game gets to play the Falcons this week. The Falcons give up big plays to receivers and that is Moore’ s game. The Falcons defense is giving up over 200 yards and touchdown per game to wide receivers. It’s a boom week Moore (and Anderson too). ($6,600 on Fanduel and $6,000 on DraftKings)
DJ Chark– Chark looked healthy last week which was certainly a welcomed sign for both Minshew and fantasy fans. He had 9 targets for 8 receptions, 95 yards, and 2 touchdowns, and this week he is playing the Texans. Last week the Texans were torched by the Vikings passing game with Adam Thielen getting 114 yards and a TD and Justin Jefferson with 103 yards. Expect Chark to continue to produce in Week 5.
Other wide receivers to play:
The obvious: Adam Thielen, Dendre Hopkins, Tyler Lockett, Devante Parker, and Tyreek Hill
The not so obvious: CeeDee Lamb, Jamison Crowder, Scotty Miller, and Tee Higgins
💔 Heart Breakers
Terry McLaurin– McLaurin gets a new quarterback and a tough match-up this week. The Rams have only given up one 100 yard game to a Wide Receiver this season, and have also only given up 1 touchdown to the position. In season long format, you are playing him if you have him, but unless he gets overwhelming volume again, it’s a tough spot that I would avoid in DFS.
Robert Woods– Surprisingly the Washington Football Team is good against wide receivers. Only DeAndre Hopkins has had true success against them with his 68 yards and one touchdown game, which isn’t exactly a boom game. No other wide receiver has scored against them and only one other wide receiver has over 60 yards. This looks more like a Kupp/Higbee game.
Odell Beckham JR– Last week a money maker and this week a heart breaker. That is how Beckham has been since joining the Browns. The only Wide Receiver with more than 64 yards against the Colts is Allen Robinson. The Colts have for the most part held opponent passing games in check. Look for Beckham to get his usual 4 or 5 targets.
Other wide receivers will cost you: Jerry Jeudy, TY Hilton, AJ Green, and Julian Edelman,
Tight Ends Week 5
💰 Money Makers
Tyler Higbee– If you just read the above you know the WFT is good against Wide Receivers, but they are the fifth friendliest team against the Tight End position. They gave up 2 touchdowns last week to Mark Andrews on only 3 receptions. Overall they have given up 5 touchdowns to the position through only four weeks, only Atlanta has given up more TDs to tight ends. ($6,000 on Fanduel and $5,600 on DraftKings)
Hunter Henry– The first three weeks of the season saw Henry getting a total of 23 targets for 206 yards. Week 4 was unkind to Henry as the match up was not good against the Buccaneers. This week he gets the Saints and the second kindest defense for tight ends to play against. The Saints have given up a touchdown weekly to the position. This is a week where Henry will bounce back.
Other tight ends to play:
The obvious Jonnu Smith, George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz and Darren Waller.
The not so obvious: Mo Alie-Cox, Evan Engram and Eric Ebron
💔 Heart Breakers
Austin Hooper – Look at that, I am telling you to sit another Browns player involved in the passing game against the Colts. Hooper had best game of the season last week, that but that was last week. The Colts are the best defense against Tight Ends. Hooper has not been very good playing for the Browns, he doesn’t exactly get a lot of targets as well. YUCK.
Mike Gesicki – Last week I said to sit Gesicki, although many others had him as a play. This week I say sit him again. The Niners are the second best team against Tight Ends. One catch for 15 yards on 3 targets last week, expect similar numbers this week. The Dolphins will pass, unfortunately they will pass to Devante Parker, and not Gesicki.
Other tight ends that will cost you: Dalton Shultz, Hayden Hurst, Tyler Eifert and Greg Olsen.
Thanks for checking out our Money Makers and Heart Breakers column. For more great content from the Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back for Mike’s weekly UNtangling the Wire (waiver wire) article.
Navigating Trades | Injury Edition
It goes without saying, but injuries suck. Although most of what I do for the Undroppables revolves around discussing injuries, I hate when players get hurt. Chances are this year more than ever, injuries have affected your fantasy football team. With a truncated offseason and zero preseason games, everyone knew that a spike in injuries was a possibility.
Inspired by Tommy Mo and his Trade Target Tilt piece from last week, in this column I am going to outline a few players I am either actively trying to acquire or get rid of based on their injury histories. A medical spin on trades, if you will.
Christian McCaffrey: Acquire
Admittedly, this is going to be a difficult trade to pull off. CMC was the consensus 1.01 in fantasy football drafts, and for the most part his fantasy managers still have that price-tag assigned to him. Recent reports indicate a speedy return for McCaffrey is likely. However, McCaffrey is currently on IR and the soonest he could return is Week 6 when the Panthers host Chicago. Additionally, high ankle sprains for RBs hinder production and can sometimes ruin fantasy football seasons.
Truthfully, I think there is a good chance McCaffrey can return after just three weeks on the IR. Since 2010, RBs who suffered a high ankle injury were able to return from the injury in 3.7 games on average. I presume McCaffrey sustained his high ankle sprain late in the 3rd quarter of Week 2 and tried to play through the injury, only to exit in the 4th quarter. He has demonstrated resilience, and because of that there is a chance he returns shortly.
If you are trading for McCaffrey, make sure you manage expectations. From the same data I referred to earlier, RBs who returned from a high ankle sprain averaged 4-11 fewer PPR points per game. Additionally, there is evidence that these players typically get off to slower starts when they return. Those last two points are critical:
- Know what you are getting with McCaffrey. He was operating as the RB3 on a points per game basis pre-injury. With a slight dip in production, CMC might be closer to the RB6-10 range.
- There is also a small window to acquire McCaffrey after he returns, should he get off to a bad start. You could get him from a frustrated fantasy manager who expected peak McCaffrey.
High ankle sprain – kiss of death Christian McCaffrey edition
Yesterday we learned that CMC sustained a high ankle sprain and would be out for the next 4-6 weeks. It was difficult to see how he injured his ankle but after looking over more video I think I have a better idea.
— Adam Hutchison PT, DPT (@TheRealAdam_H) September 22, 2020
Deebo Samuel: Acquire
The window to acquire Deebo Samuel at this point is either closed or very close to closing now that he has returned from IR. There’s a chance that fantasy managers in your league were expecting prime 2019 Deebo the second he was activated. I anticipated a ramp-up period, which was confirmed by the stats from Sunday.
Samuel only played 36% of the 49ers’ offensive snaps. Between Nick Mullens and C.J Beathard, there were 49 dropbacks/pass attempts and Deebo only ran around on 15 of them (~30% route participation). Amongst the WRs, Brandon Aiyuk is operating as the #1 while Kendrick Bourne is still ahead of Deebo, playing 70% of the 49er’s offensive snaps in Week 4. Despite that limited playing time, I think there were some positive takeaways and good reasons why I think you should go out and get Deebo.
When Samuel did play, Kyle Shanahan made it a priority to get him involved. Below are two plays specifically designed for Deebo.
I expect this trend to continue and for the 49ers to get Deebo more heavily involved. In his first game back he was not simply used as a decoy and it was evident that both San Francisco and Deebo are confident in the health of the left foot. As @FantasyFBStoner pointed out to me, Deebo ranked as the WR9 from Weeks 9-17 in PPR leagues last year.
I think you can wait a week to trade for Deebo. There should be a gradual ramp-up period, but once Deebo supplants Bourne it will be wheels up for the talented WR.
Rashaad Penny: Acquire
There is a chance you may not even have to trade for Rashaad Penny. He may be sitting out on your waiver wire at this point since some fantasy teams may have dropped him to make room for other players on their IR slot.
Penny is eligible to return from the PUP in Week 7, right after Seattle’s bye. This would mean that Penny would be 11+ months post ACL repair, the ideal timeline in my opinion for ACL injuries as I discussed this offseason. (Rashaad Penny | Injury Breakdown)
The Seahawks offense looks unstoppable, and although the overall numbers have not drastically changed, the team is letting Russ cook by emphasizing the passing game over running the ball. Because of that, I think now is the time to target Penny. There is an opportunity to thrive as the receiving back in Seattle. Compared to last season, Penny’s averaged depth of target was 2.3 yards, compared to Chris Carson’s -0.6. Additionally, when he did get the ball in his hands, Penny average > 11 yards after the catch (YAC) per reception, while Carson’s average YAC per catch was closer to 7.
When I watched Penny last year, it was clear he was the superior pass catcher, and it seemed like he was about to go on a hot streak. Both Chris Carson and Carlos Hyde have sustained injuries thus far. There is a chance that Penny is immediately fantasy relevant once he returns.
Evan Engram: Relinquish
Evan Engram was a player that I was avoiding in redraft leagues, because there is evidence to suggest that skill players in the NFL with Lisfranc injury struggle the next season. Typically these players have a 21% decrease in production (In reference to Engram, I outline it in more detail here: Evan Engram | Injury Outlook).
On a point per game basis, Engram is currently TE22 with 7.5 PPR points. Although the sample size is small at just 4 games, that is much larger than a 21% decrease in fantasy production compared to his previous career average of 12.2 points per game. Engram is running ~40 routes per game, and with injuries to Sterling Sheppard and Saquon Barkley, we expect more production than what he has gotten thus far. Per playerprofiler.com, the catchable target rate/quality of targets are at a similar mark, but Engram is simply not producing. It might not all be due to the injury, but it’s looking like that at this point Engram is not going to return his investment. It might be worth moving him to a TE-needy team.
Julio Jones: Relinquish
I am writing this piece on Tuesday morning, so it’s possible that when it drops we have more news on Julio Jones, however at this point I would be listening to offers.
Instead of going the safer route like Davante Adams in Monday’s game, Atlanta activated Julio Jones one week removed from a hamstring injury. It would appear that Julio re-aggravated his hamstring strain, as he left the game early. Re-injury rates for hamstring injuries typically are around 22-34%, but that number spikes when a player sustains a second injury. Assuming that the Falcons were not being cautious with Jones and he did re-injure his hamstring, it’s possible that we see an IR stint for the Falcons WR.
Jones is clearly an all-world athlete, but as we age, our tissue quality decreases. Julio is 31 years old and it’s possible this injury derails the rest of his season much like it did to Adam Thielen last year. It’s possible that you can move Jones based on name value alone, and I would do it if I could get a reliable piece in return.
For more injury-based content or advice, follow Adam at @TheRealAdam_H on Twitter. If you’re wondering which players you should offer for Adam’s trade targets, check out our Rest of Season Rankings and see who’s close to (or lower on the board than) these trade targets.