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The Stream Option (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 1)

Kyle Larson
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The Stream Option (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 1)

The Stream Option is a weekly article where The Undroppables explore the best options at Quarterback, Defense, and Tight End that should be available in most leagues. 

Quarterbacks

Gardner Minshew – IND @ JAX

Colts @ Jaguars has a middling over/under at 45.5, but the Colts are favored by a large margin of eight points. If the Colts do take a large lead, expect a lot of garbage time passing volume for Gardner Minshew. Last year, the Colts gave up the tenth-most passing yards per game at 248.9. Their defensive personnel likely improved over the offseason by adding DeForest Buckner and replacing Pierre Desir with the hit-or-miss Xavier Rhodes. However, the passing volume for Minshew should be enough to make him a viable stream option at QB Week 1 if he can limit his turnovers.

Derek Carr – LV @ CAR

The over/under line on this Raiders @ Panthers game is an above-average 48, and I think both quarterbacks could see solid games. The Panthers were middle of the pack in passing yards given up per game last season at 20th. However, this Panthers defense lost defensive superstar Luke Kuechly to retirement as well as moving on from Eric Reid, James Bradberry, Bruce Irvin and Mario Addison. This is a very young defense, which will likely play two or three rookies on a regular basis, with a new system as well due to coaching turnover.

On the other side, Derek Carr should benefit from a new stable of receivers compared to last season, as the Raiders added Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards on draft day. Alongside them, the Raiders boast a hyper-athletic Tight End in Darren Waller, an emerging slot Wide Receiver in Hunter Renfrow, and two solid pass-catchers out of the backfield in Josh Jacobs and Jalen Richard. While Derek Carr has not been an attractive option at Quarterback in fantasy in recent years, it should be noted that Carr only had a 37.5% bust rate, meaning he scored less than 14 PPR points in a week 37.5% of the time. This bust rate was the same as Kyler Murray last season and shows that Carr is a much safer option than the other low-tier quarterbacks that he’s often grouped alongside.

Teddy Bridgewater – LV @ CAR

On the opposite side of this matchup, there is another quarterback that should have a solid game. The Raiders secondary in 2019 gave up the eighth-most passing yards per game last season. They worked to amend this issue over the offseason by adding solid cover linebackers in Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkoski along with drafting Damon Arnette and returning Jonathan Abram from injury. However, they will still likely be in the bottom half of defenses against the pass.

On the offensive side, Teddy Bridgewater is getting another chance to lead an offense, and he’s inheriting some pretty great weapons. Obviously, Christian McCaffrey is an elite running back and one of his best abilities is his pass-catching, but the Panthers WR corps is one of the better groups in the league. They have standout WR D.J. Moore to lead the group along with two great deep-threats in Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson. While the Panthers’ coaching turnover likely hurt their defense, I do think that it aided their offensive woes. Their new offensive coordinator, Joe Brady, was last seen leading the prolific LSU offense through the college ranks to a national championship and multiple offensive records. This passing attack should vastly improve in scheme from last year, and that starts with you living the stream with Bridgewater in Week 1.

Defenses

Buffalo Bills D/ST vs. NYJ

Opposite of quarterbacks, we want to see low over/unders for when we stream defenses. Jets @ Bills has the lowest over/under of the week at 39 total points. While the Bills defense should and likely will be rostered in all leagues (99.5% rostership on ESPN), if they are available they are a no-brainer. The Jets were dead-last in yards per game and second-to-last in points per game last season, while the Bills boast an impressive defense starring elite CB Tre’Davious White, which gave up the second fewest points per game last season and returns most of their starters.

Los Angeles Chargers D/ST @ CIN

While the Chargers lost Derwin James for the season, they still have one of the best secondaries in the NFL boasting Casey Hayward, Chris Harris, and Desmond King. The Chargers defense allowed 21.6 points per game in 2019, but only 313 total yards per game, good for sixth best in the NFL. They open Week 1 against a rookie QB in a shortened offseason in an offensive system that wasn’t particularly good last year. While I think Joe Burrow is a good player, I also think he will likely start out slow with not much practice time and even less practice time with A.J. Green specifically. The Chargers defense should be much more widely available, with only a 39% rostered rate on ESPN.

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST @ WAS

The Eagles had a solid defense last season, allowing the 10th fewest total yards per game and the 15th fewest points per game. While being just an average defense, they still have a great matchup Week 1 against the Washington Football Team. Washington has a young QB in Dwayne Haskins and a new coach in Ron Rivera during a shortened offseason. Last season, this offensive unit ranked last in points per game, and while the new system is likely better it likely isn’t completely put into place. The Eagles Defense is only rostered in 40.4% of ESPN leagues, so they should be available to stream.

Tennessee Titans D/ST @ DEN

The Titans Defense is coming off a top-12 finish at the position and added prolific edge-rusher Jadeveon Clowney while not losing many pieces apart from Logan Ryan. They play the last game of Week 1 against the Denver Broncos, who are led by second-year Quarterback Drew Lock. While Lock showed flashes at the end of last season, he only scored seven touchdowns over his five starts and only passed 200 yards twice over those 5 games. On top of that, recent news indicates a possible injury to the Broncos’ standout wide receiver, Courtland Sutton. Without Sutton, the Broncos will likely lean on their run game against a Titans defense that was 12th best against the run last season, only allowing 104.5 rushing yards per game in 2019. The Titans defense is only rostered in 19.9% of ESPN leagues and should be a good stream for Week 1.

Tight Ends

The worst five defenses against the Tight End position last season are all playing against Tight Ends with over 80% rostership. While highly unlikely, if George Kittle, Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, Zach Ertz or Noah Fant is available in your league, pick them up and start them.

Jack Doyle – IND vs. JAX

The Colts open up against the Jaguars, who ranked 13th worst against the Tight End position in fantasy football last season. While Doyle is the clear-cut starter in Indianapolis, Trey Burton was pushing towards a bit of a snap share and possibly taking a couple of Doyle’s targets. However, Burton is now starting the season on IR and will not play Week 1. New Colts QB Philip Rivers threw 16.7% of his passes last season to the Tight End position. Jack Doyle is only rostered in 39.7% of ESPN leagues, so it’s likely that he’s available. You can read more about why Jack Doyle should be on your roster in Randal Kennedy’s article Jack Doyle Rules.

Eric Ebron – PIT @ NYG

The Steelers open up the season with a matchup against the New York Giants, who ranked 10th worst against the Tight End position in fantasy last season. Eric Ebron is the new starter in Pittsburgh, and while Roethlisberger hasn’t provided his Tight End with many targets in the past, Ebron may be one of the best Tight Ends he’s played with. Ebron is only rostered in 33.6% of ESPN leagues, so he’s almost certainly available as a stream option. Personally, I think Ebron fits the bill for having a great season and he should be rostered for the entire season rather than just Week 1.

A Thin Goal Line Between Love & Hate | Week 1

Randal Kennedy
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A Thin Goal Line Between Love & Hate | Week 1

Fantasy football used to mean getting together with a group of friends, throwing down some cash and selecting your team. But the popularity of the NFL and football in general has helped to ignite the fantasy industry. It’s spread to every corner of society. From prop bets to work leagues, what was once seen as a hobby for dorks and non-athletes is now mainstream. Even the players themselves are in on the action.

People are making careers out of giving us common folks fantasy advice. Who to start, who to sit. Fade this guy, draft that one. Regression, analytics, sleepers, breakouts… it’s enough to make your head spin like a tightly thrown spiral from Patrick Mahomes (don’t reach for him early, kids)

Hopefully this column will help with some of that, by highlighting players who I expect to score on a weekly basis. News and results will obviously work to change player values so keep up with my updated positional rankings to see how I value players against each other.

Also, be sure to catch all the content from my colleagues and I at theundroppables.com. There you can find results, rankings, articles and more. And finally, the Unscripted Fantasy Podcast drops weekly. You can find it on Spotify, Apple, Anchor or wherever the hell you prefer to stream. And without further ado, I bring you… my week one scorers.

Running Back

Aaron Jones scored three times against the Vikings last year. Including twice as part of a massive Week 16 contest that helped a lot of folks win their Fantasy Championship. (Isn’t that right, Gary Haddow?) I’m going to this well one more time. Jones finds paydirt and shakes those nasty regression predictions… at least for one week.

James Conner is as healthy as he will be all year and what once was old is new again in Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The “new” look Pittsburgh offense should score early and often Sunday. Including once or twice on the ground.

Josh Jacobs has 20/20 vision. That is to say that this could be his year. The sophomore has a legit shot at leading the league in rushing and he kicks off his campaign against one of the worst statistical defenses of the last five years. The 2019 Panthers gave up a whopping 31 rushing scores, almost 2300 yards and saw 41.4% of opponents’ drives end in scores. Jacobs should have a field day.

The Jacksonville Jaguars spent another offseason shipping off their most talented players. With no Tom Coughlin to blame it on, Head Coach Doug Marones seat is hotter than a two dollar pistol. The Jaguars project to be truly awful. The Colts have one of the best run blocking lines in the league and they’re going to grind this game way down in the second half. Jonathan Taylor scores twice and lights twitter on fire.

Teams attempted a league-leading 504 rushing attempts against the Bengals last year. Including 17 rushing scores and 124 first downs on the ground (second in the league) For their part the Chargers were one of the more efficient running teams in the red zone, with a 53% successful play rate. In an Oprah like giveaway, everyone gets a touchdown. Austin Ekeler, Joshua Kelley and even Tyrod Taylor find the endzone.

Wide Receiver

The Lions gave away touchdowns to pass catchers last year like Oprah Winfrey giving away copies of her latest book. A staggering 33 of them to be precise. And while first-round pick Jeff Okudah should help tremendously, I suspect the veteran Allen Robinson to have a few tricks for the rookie. The Lions win the game, but the Bears should score some points. Count on A-Rob for one score.

Despite a leg injury that basically cost him all or parts of three games, Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett led the league in redzone targets (24). He and QB Russel Wilson have chemistry that borders on telepathy. The Falcons were one of the worst teams in the league at defending the WR position last year. Giving up an average of 36.4 PPG. That number included 28 touchdowns to pass catchers. Expect Lockett and Wilson to pick up where they left off in the playoffs (torching the Packers for 136 yards and a score)

The Vikings spent the offseason turning over their secondary. They started by releasing Xavier Rhodes and ended selecting Jeff Gladney from TCU. The Vikings are young on the outside. None of their projected two deep is over the age of 23. Packers star WR Davante Adams has averaged 11 targets per game the last two years and the Packers inexplicably did nothing to address their WR corps this offseason. I expect another busy afternoon for Adams and at least one score.

The LA Rams have just given star corner Jalen Ramsey a record $105 million. But I’ve yet to see a CB who’s good enough to cover two-star WRs. Enter Micheal Gallup. His yards per route run were nearly as efficient as Amari Cooper (2.16 vs 2.29) And four of his six touchdowns came when Dak was facing pressure. While Cooper is busy with Ramsey, Gallup could get free behind a mostly beatable back end.

Tight End

Reports out of Steelers camp is that new tight end Eric Ebron has been making plays all over the place. Talent has never been a question with Ebron and we’ve seen what he can do when it comes together for him. While I don’t expect another 13 TD season, he should threaten double figures for the Steelers this year as their red zone weapon of choice. In a game where the Steelers should score plenty of points, he should beat a porous Giants defense for a score.

The way the Cardinals gave away fantasy points to the tight end position in 2019 was almost comical. They surrendered 13.1 PPG to the position. Nobody else was in double figures! They also yielded 16 touchdowns and 1150 yards! Enter Isaiah Simmons. The talented do it all Clemson Tiger should help but his presence is akin to the Dutch Boy with his finger in the dam. The 49ers made star TE George Kittle the highest-paid player at the position this offseason. Expect a return on that investment week one.

The 2019 Cleveland Browns gave up the second most points and touchdowns to opposing tight ends. Their inept play was masked only by the historically bad season that played out in the Arizona desert. With Hayden Hurst shipped off to Atlanta, TE Mark Andrews should have every opportunity to improve on a 2019 season that saw him catch 10 touchdowns. No other TE was in double figures. Expect he and QB Lamar Jackson to kick off 2020 in style in a game that has shootout potential.

A Few Flex Plays (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 1)

Kayne Rob
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A Few Flex Plays (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 1)

Welcome to The Undroppables weekly “Flex” play article, honing in on solid options to start at the flex in your league. Before we get to business, I would like to point out this article is written in hopes to help with the tough start options. If you boast a very strong team full of star caliber players, do not overthink it and switch. Lock in your studs and go with the safe points. For those not as lucky, strap in.

We will be breaking this down into 3 unique sections. First, my Flex plays for leagues of varying sizes (shallow, standard, and deep). Second, I’ll take a look at three solid flex options that are more touchdown dependent. These options hold more risk aka our boom or bust flex plays. Lastly, I’ll be taking tweets I’ve received during the week and gathering a consensus opinion from a panel of Undroppables to help you make the final say. To send your questions for future weeks, you can tag me @FantasyInAFew on Twitter.

Let’s jump in!

Flex Plays of the Week:

Shallow League Flex Options (10 or fewer teams)

DJ Chark vs Indianapolis Colts

We were already talking about the Jaguars being a poor team in 2020. Fournette’s departure emphasizes that prediction tenfold. With negative game scripts looming, Chark and Minshew’s established connection will prove useful. Especially in the red zone. That chemistry should be stronger with a full offseason together. Chark will likely be squaring off against Xavier Rhodes who showed last season that he has lost a step. In the first meeting with Indianapolis last year, Chark lit the Colts up for 146 yards & a TD. The second meeting Chark had 34 yards, yet he was recovering from an ankle injury. I expect more of the former.

Diontae Johnson @ New York Giants

Johnson is a play I really like in Week 1 against the Giants. With Juju likely seeing most of the James Bradberry coverage, the only viable corner rostered, I really like Johnson’s outlook. The 2019 rookie was a league leader in separation. With a healthy Big Ben at quarterback, Johnson could see some solid numbers in Week 1 on Monday night prime time match-up. As his QB stated in reports this week “The Sky is the Limit”.

Standard League Flex Options (12 teams)

Jamison Crowder @ Buffalo Bills

I have been on the Crowder sleeper train all offseason. Week 1 looks to be a solid flex in all PPR formats. Crowder serves as a security blanket for Darnold and I don’t anticipate that role changing. With an improved offensive line (6 new linemen added); I expect Darnold to have a bit more time to get the ball out. Crowder saw great success in his two games vs Buffalo bringing in 22 receptions on 27 targets for 165 yards and a TD. Don’t let Gase scare you away; Gase loves the slot role.

Bryan Edwards @ Denver Broncos

I am typically one to sit a rookie WR until I see some real game action. That being said, both the Raiders starting WRs are rookies and we’re hearing from all sources Edwards is a stud. The Coach, OC, Carr, Ruggs, reporters, etc. are singing his praises. With his college production and all that positivity, I am seeing the McLaurin situation all over again. The only skepticism I have is what corner he is seeing the most, but contested catches seem to be Edwards’ forte, so I am willing to give him a shot here in the final game of the week.

Deeper League Flex Options (14 or more teams)

Steven Sims vs Philadelphia Eagles

Sims is a sneaky play with high upside for deep leagues. Serving as the WR2 for Washington, Sims closed 2019 on fire. Now after securing the WR2 role again with a new coaching staff, I believe Sims could see similar opportunities. Sims closed the season with 16 receptions on 29 targets for 190 yards and 4 TDs over the final 3 games. With Slay likely shadowing McLaurin, I expect Sims Jr to be a key piece in Washington’s ability to remain competitive in Week 1.

Kendrick Bourne vs Arizona Cardinals

As of Wednesday, both Deebo Samuel & Brandon Aiyuk have not been seen practicing with the team. We are inching towards neither being available for Week 1. Enter Bourne who is listed as a starter and looks to keep the pass game afloat. This isn’t a player to rely on all season but if you need a quick start this is a deeper play. Bourne’s upside comes from his TD ability, which transitions well to our next section.

Boom or Bust Flex Options:

Marvin Jones vs Chicago Bears

Jones is familiar to Boom or Bust conversations. If Stafford is the QB, then he always remains a threat to find the end zone. Golladay will likely draw focus from the Chicago defense which helps his cause. Yet with only 2 TDs in his last 7 games against CHI the floor could be low.

Zack Moss vs New York Jets

Moss is likely to see the lower number snaps within the Buffalo split. Yet the snaps he does see will likely be in key moments. This flex will need a TD to pull through but likely playing from ahead helps his cause. I anticipate this game will be closer than most think.

AJ Green vs Los Angels Chargers

Normally a solid option but coming off minimal practice from the hamstring injury limits upside. Then you add in the fact that he is taking on the Chargers DBs that are solid with Hayward, Harris, and Desmond King. The ceiling could is high but the floor could be poor.

The Undroppables Survey Says:

I posed a question asking for your hardest decisions for Week 1. Below are 4 of those options we received with a panel of 5 Undroppables bringing you our consensus votes for Week 1:

The Undroppables Consensus: Crowder (3 votes) (Cohen & JT each had 1 vote)

Reason: Game script means they’re most likely going to have to pass it a lot because they’re touchdown underdogs. He is already established with Darnold and I see Darnold leaning heavily on him in the first few games. –@BpoFSU

The Undroppables Consensus: Marvin Jones (5 votes)

Reason: Standard gotta go TD upside. –@PauliesSleepers

The Undroppables Consensus: Anthony Miller

Reason: Miller takes over the slot role and is a safer play to me than the dart throw of maybe getting the hot hand on Shanahan’s wheel of the day. –@Jeoff66

The Undroppables Consensus: Jonathan Taylor

Reason: Sony is coming off an injury, and the Pats are expected to ‘ease him into the lineup’. On the other side you have one of the best running back prospects of all time going against one of the most depleted defenses in the NFL. –@DynoGameTheory

In Summary:

To be featured and get your flex questions answered each week feel free to tag or DM @FantasyInAFew throughout the week.

See you next week! May the odds be in your favor.

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 1)

Michael Reedy
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Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2020 – Week 1)

Fantasy Football is back!  If you are reading this you are probably very happy about that.  There is a lot going on with the advent of the season starting and I have been trying to keep up while also trying to write up the Money Makers and Heart Breakers for Week 1.

I am not going to tell you to play anyone that is blatantly obvious here. In the future I might add a place where there are guys you should be playing whether I have them in here or not.  If you have Patrick Mahomes, play him (unless I have him as a Heart Breaker).  Christian McCaffrey,  yes you probably want him in your line up as well, without me having to tell you to plug him in.

Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:

Money Maker – This player will perform well this week and perform better than expectations

Heart Breaker – These players will not have a good week

Quarterbacks

💰 Money Makers

Matt Ryan – Ryan has a full set of weapons in Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Haden Hurst and Todd Gurley.  The Seahawks will present a difficult match up defensively, but I expect this game to be pretty high scoring.  Ryan will have to throw the ball and he will, over and over.  Due to game script, the Falcons will run a lot of plays, allowing Ryan to throw a lot and his weapons are incredible.

Ben Roethlisberger – Big Ben looks healthy, he also has a nice set of weapons to throw to with Juju, Diontae Johnson, Ebron, and a healthy RB in Conner.  The Giants defense was bottom of the barrel last season and not pose much of a threat Week 1. The Steelers offense should have their way and Roethlisberger could throw for three touchdowns in a blowout.

Jared Goff – Week 1 has the Rams against the Cowboys.  The Cowboys have an amazing offense so I am sure Dak Prescott will also have a great week.  But the Rams have a pretty good offense as well. My prediction is that Woods and Kupp will perform well in Week 1, as they will be peppered with targets in an attempt to keep pace with the Cowboys high octane offense.  The Rams offense will rebound this season with three healthy running backs. Look for the Rams to run more 12 Personnel which will keep both tight ends active in the passing game. This has the looks of a shootout to me.

Other quarterbacks I like in Week 1: Tom Brady, Drew Brees and Carson Wentz.

💔 Heart Breakers

Daniel Jones  – The Steelers defense may be the best in football for 2020.  That is real football and fantasy football.  Danny Dimes is still a young quarterback and while  I like him a lot for this season, his first 4 weeks will be very difficult, starting with Week 1.  The Steelers pass defense has been lights out since Minkah Fitzpatrick joined the team midseason last year and they will be better this year.  Expect a tough day for Danny in the kickoff weekend.

Kyler Murray – K1 gets to start the season with an amazing addition of Deandre Hopkins at wide receiver.  But he also gets to start the season against the 49ers defense.  He had up and down showings against this defense last season so temper expectations. Although Murray threw for 2 touchdowns in each game last year, I expect this to be a low scoring game.

Joe Burrow –  The rookie gets to open up against the Chargers. Gus Bradley is a tremendous defensive coordinator and will gameplan around limiting the rookie’s effectiveness in his first career start.  With Bosa, James and Murray lined up on the other side, Burrow will see constant pressure and a variety of defensive looks.  It will be tough going for a rookie QB against one of the best defenses in the league.  I expect more Mixon and less Burrow for the Bengals to keep this game close.

Running Backs

💰 Money Makers

Austin Ekeler – Melvin Gordon is gone. so this is the Ekeler show now.  It looks like Ekeler will be the centerpiece of this offense and against this Bengals defense that is a good thing.  In Week 1, we should look for Ekeler to get it done on the ground and through the air.  Although with the departure of Rivers there may be fewer check downs to him.  Remember though that the Bengals gave up the most yards on the ground in 2019.

David Johnson – The Texans tend to give their running backs lots of touches.  Last season Johnson had 5 touchdowns in the first 6 weeks.  He was not amazing but he was producing.  The Texans have two Johnsons and you should expect the Texans to use both.   They will run a lot of 21 personnel, which is both Duke Johnson and David Johnson on the field at the same time.  David will be used in both passing and running.  The volume will give him production.  Chalk was telling you this already in Unlock the Chalk.

Boston Scott (& Miles Sanders) – The Washington Football Team is pretty bad, they were also very bad against the run last season.  Sanders has been dinged up a bit in the preseason, he will be ready for week 1.  I expect the Eagles to run him and give him some rest with Scott.  Scott had 7 receptions in week 9 against the Washington team last season.  I think he surprisingly plays a solid role Week 1.  Sanders should be a dominant player Week 1 as well.

Other running backs I really like this week are Joe Mixon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire & Darrell Williams, Josh Jacobs and Chris Carson.

💔 Heart Breakers

Antonio Gibson – Or whoever is starting for Washington at running back.  No, the answer is NO.  DO not play them in your lineup and please do not plug them in in DFS.  I would not risk anything on Gibson or any Washington RB in Week 1.  Sit them all.

David Montgomery  – Dinged up pretty bad in the preseason is not good news for week 1.  He is expected to start and to play at this point and time, I would avoid this based solely on his preseason injury.

Jacksonville Running Backs – Even if the sign Devonta Freeman for Week 1!  This just stinks of the frunk guy at the end of the night looking for a girl.  Don’t do it, no one is this desperate Week 1.

Wide Receivers

💰 Money Makers

Tyler Lockett – I like both Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf in Week 1.  Their quarterback is awesome, they are in a dome and will be playing in a shootout.  This should be a nice showcase of both passing offenses.  Don’t be afraid to start these guys in DFS.

Allen Robinson –  ARob was an absolute target monster for Chicago last year.  With the running game in question as David Montgomery is dinged up, expect the passing game to be source of yards and points for the Bears.  He had 154 targets last season, in two games against Detroit last season he had 21 targets in total, 14 receptions, 172 total yards and a TD.  I would expect a big game with the lack of a ground game Week 1.

Marquise Brown – Started the season well last year. The Browns defense is not so good.  Brown has made an effort to put on muscle in the offseason, the Ravens want to get him involved more with deep passes and out-breaking routes.  Week 1 look for the Ravens to attempt to get Broan more involved in this offense.

Other wide receivers I like for Week 1 – Robert Woods, Will Fuller, Michael Gallup and Amari Cooper.

💔 Heart Breakers

Darius Slayton – Week 1 brings in the Pittsburgh Steelers defense.  The Steelers are amazing against the pass.  I am expecting Slayton to struggle this week as the entire Giants passing game should have issues producing against this defense (See Daniel Jones above).

T.Y. Hilton – Hilton was a little up and down last season, I expect him to be a little down week 1.  I do like Rivers as his quarterback now and I think it will help Hilton on the season, but not so much Week 1.  With rainy weather outdoors, I expect Rivers to pass more to the slot (Paris Campbell) and to his running backs, Taylor and Mack…. and a player to be named in the next section.

NOTE: For all you people getting upset about this.  I like both players this season and you are probably playing Hilton.  Don’t expect fireworks from either in Week 1.

Tight Ends Week 15

💰 Money Makers

Hayden Hurst – The Falcons offense has been passing to the tight end the past few seasons, the week 1 matchup looks like a shootout.  Hurst will pick up where Hooper left off.  Look for Hurst to be involved in this passing attack and to be productive in week 1.

Tyler Higbee – Once the Rams started playing the 12 personnel, Higbee started producing.  So with the offense running on two tight ends and the potential for a shoot out with the Cowboys there should be plenty of passes to go around.  Expect Higbee to continue to be productive as the 202 season begins

Jack Doyle – The Undroppables are HIGH on Doyle. Randal Kennedy wrote about on Doyle in Jack Doyle Rules. Rivers likes to throw to the TE as seen in his years with Gates and Henry back in San Diego.  The expectation here is that between the offense, the QB and his own skill set a healthy Doyle will be back to his 2017 form and 80 catches are on the horizon.  A great DFS play this week.

Other tight ends I like this week – George Kittle, Travis Kelce and Darren Waller.

💔 Heart Breakers

Hunter Henry –  With the change at quarterback and the emergence of Ekeler.  I simply don’t seem to be all that jazzed up for Henry this season. A solid play typically but right now I don’t know what to expect so that makes him a Heart Breaker for me. Not worth the risk.

Austin Hooper – The Browns have a new offense and are playing against a good Baltimore defense. I am looking elsewhere this week as I am still uncertain with the connection between Baker and his new tight end. At the moment, I see Hooper as the fourth option in the passing game here behind Landry, Beckham and Hunt.

Fantasy Hot Seat | Week 1

Justin Mandaro
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Fantasy Hot Seat | Week 1

Introducing the Fantasy Hot Seat

Every year, fantasy football managers begin their draft research sometime in the middle of the offseason, often going right up until kickoff of the season’s first game. They put themselves in the hot seat a bit come draft day. After the draft, fantasy football managers also hold on to someone longer than they should. It happens whenever a player with high expectations heading into the season fails to meet those expectations early on.

We call this fantasy hoarding. Fantasy hoarding is bound to get every single manager who suffers from it in trouble. At The Undroppables, we understand this, and while we specialize in understanding who not to cut, it’s even more important to know who to cut if it comes down to it, and not holding on until it’s too late.

Fantasy Hot Seat will be a new weekly column that will outline the guys hanging onto our rosters by a thread week after week. Who can you trust? With whom should you cut ties? With that said, let’s look at some guys you should handle with care.

Clyde Edwards-Helarie – RB, Kansas City Chiefs

There are plenty of times where you will see analysts claim a player is a league-winner. But a player can also be a league-loser, specifically dependent on their ADP. There are zero reasons to question CEH’s talent, ability, or opportunity heading into the 2020 season. Being drafted in the first round for the defending world champions with a top-5 ranked offense (according to PFF.com), you’ll find it very hard to find a better situation. However, an RB Model created by Ryan Keeney at Breakoutfinder.com suggests that he may find it a bit difficult to get going despite the opportunity.

Now, neither Keeney nor I am saying that CEH won’t be a solid NFL RB or won’t put up numbers, but he may fall a little shy of breakout status. If we take a look at Brian O’Connell’s tweet regarding what it takes to be an RB1 in fantasy football, we can see that CEH has an uphill climb. According to Brian, 84% of RB1s since 1991 have had at least 271 touches, with 96% of them having at least 214. Since 2010, Andy Reid led offenses have produced an RB compiling at least 214 touches seven times. LeSean McCoy (3), Jamaal Charles (2), Spencer Ware (1), and Kareem Hunt (1). McCoy, Hunt, and Charles all had multiple college seasons of at least 174 touches. CEH reached that mark just once in his final collegiate season.

Despite a career of RB-fed offenses under Andy Reid, the Chiefs offense of today is significantly different compared to the past. With Patrick Mahomes at starting QB, no Chiefs running back has had more than 205 touches in a season. CEH is likely going to put up some pretty decent numbers in the Chiefs offense. He’s more talented than either of Darrell Williams or Darwin Thompson behind them and is sure to get most of the touches in Kansas City. But how much is the majority going to be? The last nail in the coffin of CEH’s hot seat may come from another source of analytics. While Brian’s analysis shows 96% of RB1s had at least 214 touches, only 1 RB had less than 224 touches in 2020 and finished in the top-20 of fantasy RBs: James White. I find it hard to believe CEH can be an RB1 without getting the number of touches needed. And if that is the case with his current ADP of 1.06, you may have already put yourself on the hot seat. 

A.J. Brown – WR, Tennessee Titans

If you’ve been following anything I’ve said this offseason, it has stemmed mostly from Titans’ fantasy production of offensive weapons. From the pretty insane argument that Darrynton Evans could outscore Derrick Henry in fantasy production, to my sheer disdain for A.J. Brown truthers, at least one of these has to be correct, right? According to FF Calculator, A.J. Brown was a bit of an anomaly in 2019, having been mostly undrafted in PPR. He finished as the WR21, stemming from his WR7 finish over the final eight weeks of the season. For me, many things factor into the significant jump that saw Brown get there after finishing as WR75 in the first nine weeks of the season.

First, let’s take a look at how Derrick Henry’s production enabled Brown to succeed. From Week 10 on, Henry was the 3rd-best running back in fantasy, compiling more than half of his total fantasy production throughout just five games. There’s no surprise that as teams tried (and failed) to stop Henry, it left more open space for receivers behind him. Now let’s take a look at another aspect of why Brown played so well: strength of schedule. The Titans had a very favorable second-half schedule, facing some of the league’s worst defenses down the stretch. The Titans had seven games after Week 10, and only one of them ranked inside the top-10 according to PFF defensive rank; none of them ranked inside the top-13 in coverage ranking.

The Titans schedule is significantly stiffer in 2020, playing six games against top-10 defenses and three more games against teams in the top-13. Today, Brown is drafted as WR18 with expectations of being a WR1 in fantasy football. Those expectations seem a bit high for me, as several players drafted behind him have significantly higher upside. You patience with Brown should be thin with him entering his second year and quickly falling victim to the sophomore slump.

Aaron Rodgers – QB, Green Bay Packers

The clock seems to be ticking on Aaron Rodgers, but it might not be for much longer. With the drafting of Jordan Love and the lack of air support around him, the Packers might be telling us something. Rodgers will remain the starting QB in Green Bay for at least this year and maybe even next year. However, over the last few seasons, Rodgers has gone from a bona fide top-3 fantasy QB to a borderline QB1.

From 2010-2016, Rodgers finished in the top-3 five times with an 8th place finish and an injury-riddled season the other two. Rodgers would only play seven games in 2017; however, he finished with less than 30 touchdowns in consecutive years for the first time. Due to the lack of scoring, Rodgers dropped outside the top 10 for the first time in a season where he was completely healthy. Rodger’s weapons didn’t get any better, but he is still drafted as one of the league’s top guys. According to FF Calculator, Rodgers is the 10th QB taken in redrafts. Watch out for continued underwhelming performances.

Odell Beckham Jr. – WR, Cleveland Browns

A lot of players are on the hot seat in Cleveland, including Odell’s QB Baker Mayfield. However, he finished as WR25 (13 spots behind his teammate Jarvis Landry) in 2019. Despite the poor performances, his ADP remains in the top 12 (WR11, according to FF Calculator). Since entering the league, Beckham Jr. has been one of the more captivating players. Whether it was from his play on the field or his fiery behavior off the field (who fights a kicking net?), Odell was often top of mind discussing the top receivers in the league. After three straight years finishing within the top-7, Beckham hasn’t come close to the top-10, finishing as WR17 in 2018 and WR25 last year.

It seems as if fantasy football players are hoarding or holding on to the Odell Beckham of the past, and you may need to rethink that strategy. The Browns are on the hot seat in general this year. The Browns added a lot to the offensive side of the ball, including a new head coach, updated players at both tackle spots, and implementing a game plan that was previously ranked 7th last year according to PFF (Kevin Stefanski, Minnesota Vikings). If Beckham isn’t able to turn it around quickly, drafting him as WR11 may have more negative consequences than positive ones. 

 

 

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