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Las Vegas Raiders Offseason Breakdown

Tommy Mo
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Las Vegas Raiders Offseason Breakdown

Please welcome our newest Senior Film Analyst + Ranker, Tommy Mo, to The Undroppables! Tommy brings us the FINAL offseason breakdown for 2020, appropriately a breakdown of his favorite team…

The final offseason breakdown of the AFC West leaves us with the Las Vegas Raiders, the team everyone loves to hate. In 2020, everyone will learn to love them for fantasy purposes, as the Silver & Black have loaded up on offense with some exceptional young talent. Moving on from the Antonio Brown debacle of 2019, they took a handful of 1st and 3rd Round picks in the Draft to reload on offense.

Offseason Moves

Shocking to some, the Raiders selected Henry Ruggs, III out of Alabama with the 12th overall pick and the first WR off the board. They then took back-to-back playmakers in the 3rd Round with Lynn Bowden, Jr. (Kentucky) at 80th overall, and Bryan Edwards (South Carolina) at 81st overall. While some may question passing on Lamb/Jeudy and drafting consecutive skill players, these picks allowed Jon Gruden to take one step closer to meeting his goal of the best WR corps in the NFL. They also added Jason Witten and Marcus Mariota in free agency to bring in a veteran presence and a quality backup for Carr.

The Raiders then focused their sights on the defense. They drafted Damon Arnette 19th overall, as GM Mike Mayock saw the overlooked talent in the Ohio State counterpart to Jeff Okudah. Arnette brings youth and a versatile coverage game to a rebuilding Raiders secondary. The other major area of need for the team was the LB group that has struggled in the past but will struggle no more. They signed Cory Littleton from the Rams as a big free agent splash, followed by Nick Kwiatkoski from the Bears. The Raiders now have two hitters who can play every down and cover the entire field, which is exactly what you want from the prototypical NFL linebacker.

The Raiders weren’t done with acquisitions though. They brought in Maliek Collins from the Cowboys to add a physical presence to the interior defensive line, and Carl Nassib to add depth to the Edge. After the Eli Apple signing fell through, they went back to the well to grab Prince Amukamara, who will start opposite 2nd-year CB Trayvon Mullen. While this is a fantasy football article, it’s important to pay attention to the improvement on the defense as more opportunities for the offense will translate to more fantasy points.

In this next section, I’ll take a closer look at each offensive position group and give you my seasonal outlook for fantasy relevant players.

Quarterback

Derek Carr

If there’s any one player hated the most on the most-hated team in the NFL, it’s Derek Carr. He’s been criticized for his 39-55 win/loss record (18th among active QBs), his injury history (back and ankle fractures), his average completed air yards of 4.9, and his lack of  aggressiveness (11.7%). At the same time, he’s compiled the following stats:

  • #2 in true completion percentage of 78.6% (playerprofiler.com)
  • 2nd highest expected completion percentage (NextGenStats)
  • 2nd most accurate passer rating per PFF
  • 2nd highest passing grade when targeting WRs in the red zone.

Hating on Derek Carr is basically like hating on Drew Brees, because he doesn’t win as many games and isn’t as consistent. But it’s entirely understandable, as he’s been ranked middle of the pack for his entire career and is on the verge of losing his job if he doesn’t produce this year. Still, Carr takes care of the ball; he went 10 straight weeks last season without an interception. Carr might be a fantasy free agent in standard 1QB leagues, but he’s a hell of a QB2 in a Superflex or 2QB league that can be drafted in the later rounds with an Undroppables ADP of 82.

Marcus Mariota

All things are looking up for Carr in 2020, but he needs to produce in order to keep the new addition of Marcus Mariota at bay. While Mariota brings a new facet to the offense, he’s not competing for a starting role unless Carr seriously tanks or gets hurt. At worst case, he’s one of the best backups in the league who should be rostered in deep 2 or 3 QB leagues as a backup to Carr. We’ve all seen what Marcus can do with his legs and how well he can pass when he’s got a clean pocket around him, but I don’t foresee much fantasy relevance for the throwin’ Samoan this season.

Running Back

Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs had a real shot at winning Rookie of the Year last year, falling just behind Kyler Murray. He came up short despite amassing 242 rushing attempts for 1,150 yards and 7 TDs, adding 20 receptions for 166 yards. Rushing wise, he was #8 overall in the league, but due to a lack of targets and missing 2 games, he finished the season as RB21 in PPR formats (FantasyPros). His rushing prowess and expected increase in targets has vaulted Jacobs to RB8 in both Dynasty and Redraft rankings this year. This is exactly the right tier for Jacobs who has the skill set to crack top 5 with a significant increase in targets. One of the main reasons for Jacobs’ early success, besides a great O-Line, is his NFL-best ability to elude tackles. Per PFF, he was the most elusive RB in 2019 with the most forced missed tackles with 69. Jacobs will continue to lead the Raiders backfield and carry the load in Gruden’s “old-school” offense, making him a perennial RB1-type for the foreseeable future.

But wait! What about those other guys in the backfield? Won’t they take away touches? Won’t they take away opportunities on 3rd down? If you’ve been on twitter the past few months, you’ve most likely read someone tweet about them resigning Jalen Richard, about drafting Lynn Bowden, about signing Theo Riddick. The only thing I have to say about that is…And??

Jalen Richard

Richard has and will continue to be a competent change-of-pace back who excels at pass blocking and pass catching. He’ll spell Jacobs on some 3rd downs to give Jacobs a break, but he’s not taking away enough volume to put a hurt on Jacobs’ fantasy success. As I correctly projected last year, Richard’s numbers returned to pre-2018 status, and have overall steadily declined his 4 years in the league. I would only recommend rostering Richard in deep 12+ team leagues as a long shot PPR plug-in. Unlike the last 2 seasons, he won’t see enough volume to be fantasy relevant. Richard will be great for real football, but bad for fantasy football.

Lynn Bowden, Jr.

Lynn Bowden, Jr. is listed as a running back on the team’s roster, but I really think that’s for roster number purposes only. Bowden will line up everywhere for the Raiders. He’s the new hybrid H-Back that we saw Tarik Cohen play last year. Someone that can line up in the backfield, on the wing, in the slot, or motion out wide to add a wrinkle to the offense. He doesn’t have prototypical RB or WR size, but the guy is a playmaker. Last year at Kentucky he played QB, WR, and RB, rushing 185 times for 1,468 yards and 13 TDs, caught 30 receptions for 348 yards and 1 TD, and threw for 35 times for 403 yards and 3 TDs. That’s over 2,200 yards of offense generated by one player from three different positions. Insane.

While Bowden will cause a fit for opposing defenses, it’s too early to tell just how much volume he’ll receive this year. He’s a great late-round pickup for Dynasty, and unless you’re part of #RaiderNation I would just keep him on the Watch List until at least mid-season. One thing is for sure though, I do expect some Wildcat usage from him, just like he did at Kentucky.

Wide Receiver

Henry Ruggs, III

The Raiders receiving corps is the most improved position on this team, and the one group that was the most irrelevant for fantasy purposes last year. That all begins to change with Henry Ruggs, III. While it typically takes rookie WRs some time to mature, he has a path to fantasy relevance and will contribute right away in the passing and return game. Ruggs is not your prototypical X receiver, so he’ll line up as the Z and in the slot. He’ll make a living on mismatches up the seam, on bubble screens, and taking a slant route to the house.

Ruggs was a beast for Alabama, scoring a touchdown every 4 times he touched the ball. That highly efficient level of production won’t translate over to the NFL, but his usage at Bama is exactly how the Raiders should fit him into their system. He’s a playmaker and an athlete (have you seen him play basketball?) who will line up all over the field. While his status in the personnel matters for fantasy, understanding his role leaves room for another true X receiver to contribute in this offense.

Tyrell Williams

Tyrell Williams should be that X receiver, for now. However, at the time of this writing, he suffered another injury in a string of low-grade injuries, this time a torn labrum in his shoulder. Williams stated he’s going to rehab and play through the pain; probably because he knows he has to play or he’ll lose his spot. But according to The Undroppables resident injury expert Adam Hutchinson, a torn labrum typically needs surgery to repair, which could cause Williams to miss some weeks. Laviska Shenault suffered a similar injury at Colorado last year that caused his production to drop. Williams can be that true #1 WR type, but it’s been a long 4 years since he last put up those kind of numbers for the Chargers. While he has the size, speed, and metrics to be that guy, he hasn’t consistently produced because of these small but impacting injuries. Before the injury, Williams was worth a late-round pick because he’s a starter and has potential to produce. Now, he’s at best on the Watch List or a deep roster stash.

Hunter Renfrow

Hunter Renfrow is my guy. Matthew Berry has his Little Cooper Kupp, and I have my Lil Hunter Renfrow. From his time at Clemson, Renfrow has been burning DBs with his crisp route running and penchant for catching everything. He’s a great utility player out of the slot that has the route-running ability to beat defenders in a number of ways. Plus, he has the hands to make tough catches. Those hands allowed him to catch touchdown-winning national championships at Clemson, and catch 4 TDs from Carr last season off of 71 targets and 49 receptions.

Not only is his look unassuming, but his speed is as well. Clocked in at a 4.59 40-yard dash, Renfrow’s on-field speed is much faster, as he pulled away from defenders for long YAC touchdowns in Week 8 vs the Texans and Week 16 vs the Chargers. The kid known as “Third and Renfrow” made waves his rookie season and will continue to do so as the main slot WR for the Raiders. Undroppables consensus redraft rankings have him at WR73, but I agree with Paulie’s Sleepers, and have him ranked in the mid-40 range. He’s a great late-round flex addition to any redraft team and is a must-roster in dynasty.

Bryan Edwards

Bryan Edwards is the future X receiver of this team. That future may start a little earlier than planned now that Williams is hurt again. But his role with the team was set the minute he was drafted. Edwards was the potential steal of this draft class because he was a clear-cut #1 WR type coming out of South Carolina. He suffered a knee injury late in the 2019 season, and then broke his foot preparing for the draft. Fortunately, those injuries allowed Edwards to fall to the third Round of the draft for the Raiders. Edwards had a College Dominator rating of 48.4% (94th percentile) and a Breakout Age of 17.8 (100th percentile), putting him at phenom status for both metrics. On the field, he looks the part with his size (6’3″ 212 lbs.) and ability to go up and make tough catches look easy. Edwards was not projected to make a significant fantasy contribution this year, making him a tough player to draft in redraft leagues, but he’s an absolute must-roster in dynasty, as he’ll be a WR1 within 3 years.

Bryan_Edwards_Raiders
Bryan Edwards’ metrics on playerprofiler.com

The Rest

There are plenty of players on the roster that will compete for the scraps in the receiving game. Zay Jones is my favorite of the group to make the roster and get playing time. He’s been working with Carr all offseason and has developed trust and a rapport with the QB. The first pass thrown in the new stadium during the Raiders’ first scrimmage was to Zay Jones. He can get up backwards and make some plays, but that’s about all he’ll do for fantasy purposes. Agholor is a JAG (just a guy) who is hoping to make the final roster. Lastly, the young guys in Rico Gafford, Marcell Ateman, and Keelan Doss all have potential and are decent WRs, but are behind the rest of the group. None are worth a roster spot in any fantasy format and won’t see much playing time unless they’re traded.

Tight End

Darren Waller

The breakout tight end of 2019 is back and is no longer a sleeper in the fantasy community. The best thing about Darren Waller is that he’s humble, and has stayed humble throughout the offseason if you follow his Instagram. He’s continued to work at his sobriety and his music. Now why am I talking about his off-field life so much? Because Waller is one of those guys that have the world at their fingertips if they just stay focused. The converted wide receiver has proven he’s a mismatch monster. Too big to be guarded by safeties, and too fast to be guarded by linebackers. Plus, The Podfather likes him, so he’s got that going for him. Waller finished as the TE3 last year in PPR thanks to a team-leading 117 targets. The question is, can he do it again?

He’ll definitely have competition for targets this year from the receivers I discussed above. But with Derek Carr averaging 552 attempts per season, there’s still plenty to go around. Waller should continue to be his favorite target on the team and his safety blanket. While I do expect his targets to take a small dip to 100+, I would expect his 3 TDs to rise as well with some more red zone work. Regressing back to the mean, or “positive regression” if you will. The main reason I believe Waller solidifies his top-5 TE status this season is based on my favorite stat for him from PFF, which puts him in some very fine company:

Foster Moreau

Besides the WRs, Waller will also be “competing” with Foster Moreau and Jason Witten. Compete is in quotes because Waller is the clear-cut #1 TE, if not the #1 receiving option on the team. Moreau is a great athlete and your prototypical tight end who would be the starter on any team without Waller. He’s got good size, can in-line block, and can catch. He beat Waller in TDs last year with 5, which makes him a very interesting fantasy prospect, because with only 25 targets last year, he’s extremely efficient. Unfortunately, there’s not getting enough volume for fantasy relevance. Foster should be rostered in Dynasty leagues as a taxi squad stash, or a late round pick for Best Ball leagues. Once he gets his shot, he’ll be legit.

Jason Witten

The one player that does have the potential to eat into Waller’s production is Jason Witten, particularly from a red zone standpoint. Last year in Dallas, Witten earned more red zone targets than any other pass catcher for the Cowboys. However, that’s the only place I see Witten contributing, as he was signed as a locker room guy; a veteran presence that can teach both young TEs a thing or two about playing the position at the highest level, as well as fulfilling the role Mayock and Gruden have brought to the Raiders: a high character guy that loves the game of football.

Final Thoughts

The Vegas Raiders are turning it around with youth, talent, and good guys both in the locker room and on the field. As a Raiders fan, I say this every year, but 2020 and beyond is looking bright for the Silver & Black. Like any team, they have to stay healthy and guys need to reach their full potential. With Gruden going into his 3rd season at the helm and with Mayock building the roster, it’s time for the entire team to hit that 3rd-year breakout and prove the haters wrong.

For more AFC West breakdowns from The Undroppables, check out our posts on the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs.

Minnesota Vikings Offseason Breakdown

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Minnesota Vikings Offseason Breakdown

Our Editor in Chief Andrew Mackens brings his take on the Minnesota Vikings offseason to the table. Let us know on Twitter what other types of content you’d like to see from the team!

The Minnesota Vikings’ Super Bowl window is closing fast. Two of the past three years, they upset the New Orleans Saints and crushed the dreams of an entire region, only to be crushed themselves by true Super Bowl contenders the week thereafter (Philadelphia Eagles in 2017 and San Francisco 49ers in 2019.)

Offseason Moves

The Vikings are nothing if not resilient, however. While they lost some big names on defense (Everson Griffen, Linval Joseph, Xavier Rhodes, Trae Waynes) and traded away stud wide receiver Stefon Diggs, the Vikings seem confident in maintaining continuity at the top while reloading the roster with young talent.

Their triumvirate of General Manager Rick Spielman, Head Coach Mike Zimmer, and Quarterback Kirk Cousins all received multi-year extensions this offseason. With multiple picks in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft following the Diggs trade, the Vikings selected LSU standout Justin Jefferson to fill Diggs’ shoes, along with TCU cornerback Jeff Gladney to bolster their secondary. Given the sheer number of moves made for the Vikings this offseason, I’m more skeptical than optimistic about their chances of making a playoff run in 2020.

Running Back

It’s no secret the Vikings offense will run through Gary Kubiak’s scheme, which will continue to benefit Dalvin Cook immensely. But as we get closer and closer to the start of the season, training camp whispers and historical health concerns for Dalvin Cook have many fading him in the front half of the first round in fantasy drafts.

As I pointed out earlier this offseason, it’s not unreasonable to fade Dalvin Cook given the combination of contract situation, health, and the presence of Alexander Mattison. Having said that, Cook is still a 1st round fantasy pick and should be treated as such. It’s entirely possible he stays healthy and sees even more volume than last year.

Cook and Mattison (the latter of which is currently taking a lot of first team reps in camp) are both holds in Dynasty; their redraft ADP is worth monitoring to see where you can take advantage of a drop in position for Cook, or avoid a bump that puts Mattison too high given his current role.

Wide Receiver

With the departure of Stefon Diggs, the signing of former Titans WR Tajae Sharpe, and the addition of Justin Jefferson in the NFL draft, all signs point to Adam Thielen being the alpha in the Vikings’ pass game when they do throw. If Thielen gets right from last year’s injuries, he could easily becomes a target monster and achieve a WR1 season.

On the contrary, I see everything else in Minnesota and view the veteran as #UNdraftable. The fact of the matter is, injuries take a toll on the body, and Adam Thielen is not Julio Jones or Larry Fitzgerald. Thielen didn’t truly break out until his age 27 season, so in my mind the drop off in production at age 30 is significantly more likely for Thielen.

If you don’t believe me, take it from fellow Undroppable Randal Kennedy, who has a spicy take that Thielen won’t even have the most receptions on the team.

If you could trade Adam Thielen for Justin Jefferson in your dynasty leagues right now, I would do it. Jefferson is intended to be the future of this team’s receiving core, whether Thielen is a part of it or not. He’s one to keep on your radar in redraft as the season starts.

I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention second-year receiver Bisi Johnson, who’s currently running with the first team in training camp. If he’s getting more looks than Jefferson Week 1, it may be a crap shoot to figure out which young gun (if either) can contribute significantly to your fantasy squad.

Tight End

The Vikings tight end room is another spot where we’re witnessing a changing of the guard. While Kyle Rudolph has seen success throughout his career in Minnesota, his production peaked four years ago. Furthermore, Irv Smith Jr. is waiting in the wings to take on the #1 TE mantle.

While he hasn’t been the most popular breakout candidate in the fantasy community, signs of Smith’s talent and opportunity in an offense that utilizes 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs, 2 WRs) more than most teams make him another guy to keep your eye on in redraft. As such, Smith is a high-upside hold in dynasty.

Final Thoughts

As someone who grew up in Green Bay, Wisconsin, it’s hard for me to find much else nice to say about the Vikings and their prospects as an exciting team to watch on NFL Sundays. If this team has any shot at reaching the promised land, it will be by the guidance of Head Coach Mike Zimmer and Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak. Only time will tell if their seemingly decimated defense will enable the style of play Zimmer prefers.

 

David Montgomery | Injury Outlook

Adam Hutchison
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David Montgomery | Injury Outlook

In an environment where we’re all thirsty for football content due to lack of preseason action, overreactions happen. I’m not shaming anyone; I’ve done it, we all have. On Wednesday we got our first taste of the overreaction frenzy as Chicago Bears’ RB David Montgomery went down with an injury. The Twitter world rushed to the scene:

“Montgomery torn ACL – done for the season.”
“How long until Bears call Devonta Freeman?”
“Scratch the knee injury; it was a non-contact lower extremity injury – likely Achilles.”

When the dust finally settled, it was confirmed that Montgomery had a groin injury. A big deal? Yes, but likely not a season-ender. I’ll discuss the fantasy implications for Montgomery below:

Groin Strain

Groin strains are difficult because there’s some uncertainty around what musculature is actually injured. The “groin” is a non-specific term. As the picture shows below, groin is the joining of multiple muscle groups. Groin strains have also been referred to as sports hernias or adductor strains based on what muscles are specifically affected, which can further add to confusion. In the end, it doesn’t really matter as they all present the same. Sports hernias tend to show up better on MRIs, and therefore would supply a more definitive diagnosis, while adductor strains are less accurate [1].

Anatomy of “Groin”

Expected Timeline 

What everyone wants to know is how long is David Montgomery going to be out. A lot of it depends on the severity of the injury. Based on the video, initially my thoughts are that it doesn’t look good. Montgomery appears to be in a lot of pain, and he’s unable to put weight on his left leg. To me, that says that Montgomery is likely dealing with a moderate to severe groin strain (potentially more) and his Week 1 status is in jeopardy.

Best Case Scenario:

Best case, Montgomery has a Grade I/II (minimal to moderate) adductor strain/tear. He is likely to look at a 3-4 week timeline before he returns to football activities [2]. With this being a soft tissue injury, there’s a chance of re-aggravation should he return too soon. We could see him be a late scratch throughout the season due to various flare-ups.

Worse Case Scenario:

If Montgomery’s injury is more severe, (Grade III adductor strain/sports hernia) then he’s looking at a much longer timeline. If it’s deemed that surgery is not needed, then the average return-to-sport timeline for Montgomery would be around 4-6 weeks. Granted, this length of time really depends on where the injury is,  the severity of the tear, and how Montgomery does with pain tolerance. If Montgomery suffered a complete tear, then he would need surgery to repair the damaged musculature. Look for any reports that indicate that Montgomery heard an audible “pop” in his hip, as this can indicate a complete tear and suggest surgery is needed. If surgery is needed, Montgomery would miss at least 6 weeks, although some evidence recently has shown high-level athletes being able to return as early as 5 weeks [3]. If either of these were the case, then I would expect Chicago to place him on the reserve PUP, meaning he would miss a minimum of 6 weeks. 

Other possible Diagnosis: 

Montgomery is going to get an MRI to confirm his diagnosis and in the coming days we should have more clarity. Based on his mechanism of injury, it’s possible that he suffered a labral tear in his left hip, maybe even a fracture. Both of these would be more serious and require surgery that would effectively end his season.

Fantasy Impact

A groin strain is a soft tissue injury and an uncomfortable spot on the body. For that reason it can linger. A variety of movements can be potentially problematic, but specifically speaking, twisting/pivoting and sprinting pose the biggest threat. 

If Montgomery only has a Grade I/II strain, I think that at least early on we see the Bears limit his workload. This will likely mean he becomes less involved in the passing game, a step that I was hoping he would take this season when I wrote the Bears offseason breakdown. If you haven’t drafted yet in your fantasy leagues, his mid-4th round ADP would be a little high for me, and I would probably drop him into the late 5th behind the likes of Cam Akers, James White, and D’Andre Swift. 

I am less worried about him injuring himself on a breakaway run, because that’s not Montgomery’s strong suit. Montgomery only had one run of over 50 yards and 4 total plays of 20-30 yards last season. He’s not a sprinter, and instead operates better in short, intermediate spaces. 

From a dynasty perspective, even if Montgomery has surgery for a groin strain, it’s a non-issue. Re-injury rates one year after are extremely low at 8% [2]. 

Watch for what the Bears do in the coming weeks. If Chicago brings in a veteran with minimal financial investment, then Monty’s injury is short term. If they sign someone like Devonta Freeman or trade for a player, this indicates that the Bears need a more reliable option. This would be worse for Montgomery’s 2020 outlook. Tarik Cohen wouldn’t be able to handle a full workload, so Chicago will have to do something if there’s any doubt about Montgomery’s availability. 

David Montgomery in action.

References

[1] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3931344/

[2] https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/2325967119897247

[3] https://www.jospt.org/doi/pdfplus/10.2519/jospt.2016.6352

Green Bay Packers Offseason Breakdown

Kayne Rob
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Green Bay Packers Offseason Breakdown

We all saw the 2020 NFL Draft. By now you’ve heard about 1st round pick Jordan Love and the lack of WRs drafted with the Packers’ 9 draft picks. You’ll hear about how this will cause the Pack to struggle this year, and you’ve probably heard Rodgers will want to leave after this year. It’s becoming a tired story. Truth is, no one outside of the Packers’ front office has any clue on what their plan is. Below we will take a deeper look into the potential overlooked Packers players for fantasy football in 2020.

Offense: An Overview

The Packers brought in Matt LaFleur as their Head Coach in 2019. LaFleur turned a 6-9-1 team into a contending 13-3 team. This Packers team also went 9-1 in one score games in 2019. Whether that regresses slightly in 2020 or not, the team showed they can compete with almost anyone (besides the 49ers apparently.)

Skeptics of the team are focused on the regression of these one score games. Yet those same people forget that many teams see an improvement within year two of a new offensive system. Both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams, who are talented and cerebral players, were on record most of year one saying they were still adjusting to the playbook. That won’t be the case this year. This division will still run through Green Bay.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers

Everyone is fading Rodgers after his up-and-down fantasy year which contained little to no consistency. The future Hall of Famer put up 4,002 yards, 26 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions, landing him as the QB9 overall. Yet if you had him week to week in 2019, you were likely frustrated as he only put up 5 QB1 weeks all season.

That being said, I do anticipate better consistency for the former fantasy must-have. Familiarity with the new system and having Adams healthy for the full year should improve some of the passing game with week to week consistency. Yet the new regime in Green Bay seems determined to run the ball. This takes away from the higher TD numbers we are used to seeing Rodgers put up. That fact alone keeps Rodgers away from the top options and more in the QB9-QB15 range.

Rodgers is going around QB12/QB13 in drafts currently, which is a fair value as it currently stands. With what is rated the 3rd easiest schedule among QBs for 2020, I believe Rodgers is a great later option in redraft, especially if you can get him after the 8th round. Rodgers is a rock solid streaming option within redraft, but he no longer holds the every-week plug and play value. Within superflex dynasty, A-Rod is more of a QB2 option, but holds high upside each and every week. He should only be rostered on contending teams.

Jordan Love

Love was the Packers 1st round selection in 2020 and caught many off guard. The jury is still out on the rookie QB, but in all honesty Love won’t likely see the field for two years at the very least. If it wasn’t clear enough, he’s an absolute avoid in redraft. For dynasty he is a hold or taxi spot.

Running Back

Aaron Jones

Once again, another Packer player being faded by many analysts out there, but in this case I think the take is incorrect, especially for the 2020 season. The one screaming comment you will consistently see against Jones is that his TDs will regress heavily from the league leading 19 TDs he put up in 2019. The counter, even taking away 11 of his 19 TDs, Aaron Jones would have still been a top 10 RB in 2019.

There are those that will point to his low weeks as a flaw. Yet Aaron Jones was one of the best scoring RBs in fantasy week over week. Of the fantasy relevant weeks, (1-16) Jones finished inside the top 24 on 10 occasions. Something only 12 RBs in the NFL were able to match or do better. Furthermore, 8 of these occasions were RB1 weeks (top 12), which only 4 RBs were able to do last season. Those RBs were CMC, Henry, Zeke, and Jones.

RBs of 2019. Breakdown of RB1 & RB2 % for top 30 RBs

Despite this, Jones ADP is still currently around RB13. This has him going in the late 2nd or early 3rd round, and going after guys like Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, and Austin Ekeler. Personally, I’ll take Jones over at least 2 of those 3. He’s a great value in redraft formats that I will be targeting, depending how the board falls. Jones is fairly cheap in dynasty as well with the fear of new rookie A.J. Dillon. Dillon and Jones can coexist in this offense. Even if Jones doesn’t earn an extension in Green Bay, I believe he will land a starting job elsewhere easily, so his value should carry over.

A.J. Dillon

A.J. Dillon at 2020 Packers Training Camp (Photo: Rob Demovsky)

With the selection of the Boston College running back, Green Bay’s 2nd round draft pick in the 2020 NFL draft was nearly as surprising as its first. I believe there is a lot to be excited about with Dillon, not only due to talent, but also due to opportunity. The more the Packers cap situation shapes up for next year, the more it looks like Jones may be lining up at RB elsewhere. With Kenny Clark recently signing a massive extension, and David Bakhtiari, Kevin King, and Aaron Jones waiting to get theirs as well before 2021, it seems as though Jones may be the odd man out towards getting an extension.

Enter A.J. Dillon, who is an absolute monster of a man! So much so that the coach himself was caught off guard when the rookie entered training camp.

Massive words for a coach that worked directly with Derrick Henry! Yet it isn’t just the build, he has the talent as well. He demonstrated this in college, putting up 4,382 total rushing yards and 38 TDs in his 3 seasons at Boston College. As you can imagine, the man is a problem to take down. Dillon saw the second most ‘Yards after Contact’ in all of college football from 2017-2019 with 2,980 yards, trailing only Jonathan Taylor. He also was a monster at forcing missed tackles.

Dillon has me more excited each second I spend looking into to him. In dynasty leagues, I would highly recommend getting him now in hopes of solid red zone work, as well as the potential #1 RB role in Green Bay starting in 2021. In redraft, you likely won’t be rostering Dillon, but keep an eye out for his touches and red zone looks early because he may be a great waiver add.

Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams is the player I anticipate to be hurt the most by the Dillon addition. The ground-and-pound, short yardage work Williams saw in third-and-short situations will likely go Dillon’s way. Also, with both Jones and Williams needing an extension after this year, Williams will likely be a lower priority to be retained. I truly believe Jamaal Williams’ fantasy relevance will near zero after this season. I wouldn’t roster him in redraft, and if you currently roster him in dynasty, I would try and get a late pick ASAP, before it’s too late (it may already be).

Wide Receiver

Davante Adams

Davante Adams is a top 5 WR that still doesn’t get enough love from many casual fans. Lots of fans who only look at the end of the year finishes will look at Adams and judge him due to his lack of 1,000 yard seasons, but that surface level information is what continually blinds many. Adams is actually one of my favorite options this year to finish as the WR1 overall.

Adams has been a consistent stud when it comes generating fantasy points. Adams’ fantasy points per game finishes among wide receivers have been as follows over the last 4 years: 2016- 9th; 2017- 6th; 2018- 1st; 2019- 6th

With little competition on the roster, I imagine Adams will be among league leaders in targets. Also, as we know, Adams is a red zone monster, so scoring opportunities will present themselves. Adams is a great option for those contending in dynasty. I believe he’s being undervalued at the moment, so it may not hurt just to check in with the owner on their asking price. Of course he is a top option in redraft as well.

Allen Lazard

Allen Lazard came into his own within the 2019 season. With no new rookies added to the roster, Lazard and the other younger WRs will be expected to contribute more in 2020, if the team is to remain competitive. Lazard is expected to step up into the #2 WR role, alongside Adams in 12 personnel sets. He will likely see the most opportunities early, so if I am taking a shot on Packers late-round WR options, he is the one I want. Not only can Lazard run block extremely well for a WR, but he’s great among single man coverage.

Take a shot on Lazard in both redraft and dynasty, it’s honestly a minimal cost with a potential high reward.

Equanimeous St. Brown

The youngest of the wideouts on the Green Bay roster, EQ missed all of the 2019 season with injury. Yet LaFleur seems to mention him a lot when referring to players he’s expecting to take on a much bigger role. I believe EQ will take on a large share of the slot role we saw Geronimo Allison play last year. He will share this with MVS (more below) & Jace Sternberger, and will likely serve as the #3 WR on the roster. St. Brown will likely have little to no redraft value and is a dynasty stash with hope for relevance.

Marquez Valdes-Scantling

2020 will likely serve as the last chance for Marquez Valdes-Scantling to serve a key role on the Packers roster. If he doesn’t manage to leave an impact, odds are he will need to find a home elsewhere. MVS has been the big play threat for the Packers over the last 2 years, but many of these opportunities have turned into incompletions. He has no value in redraft and is a stash at best in dynasty, though I’m not really interested in rostering him at this point. He’s also the WR I have heard the least about this offseason from LaFleur or Rodgers.

Tight End

Jace Sternberger

Jace Sternberger is the only tight end worth rostering in fantasy from this Green Bay squad. He was drafted as a 3rd round pick in the 2019 NFL draft. In his rookie year, he missed a large portion of the season due to injury. There were high hopes for the tight end’s receiving abilities, and that will likely be his focus in 2020 as well. The Packers will use Sternberger in a similar fashion to Jimmy Graham as a deep threat and slot option. Graham had seen the 5th-most deep targets in the NFL in 2019, offering a potential high upside for the budding Sternberger.

LaFleur stems from the Shanahan offensive scheme, and you can see he’s trending his roster build to a similar style. With that in mind, Sternberger is a great dynasty buy and stash for all rosters, as the cost is minimal and the opportunity may be large. If the wide receivers continue to underperform, Sternberger’s role could be larger than anticipated, as he could serve as the #2 pass catching option.

Final Thoughts

This Packers team has some very interesting pieces for immediate success and also a few potential younger pieces for the future. I believe LaFleur’s system will continue to produce for us in fantasy. It’s simply a matter of getting these key pieces early and cheap before they gain more traction.

For more NFC North coverage, check out our breakdowns of the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears.

Chicago Bears 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Adam Hutchison
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Chicago Bears 2020 Offseason Breakdown

As a lifetime Chicago Bears fan, the past couple of years have been rough.

  • 2017: Ryan Pace trades up one pick to secure what he thought would be franchise QB Mitchell Trubisky, passing on Deshaun Watson and future Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.
  • 2018: Cody Parkey ends the Bears’ season in dramatic fashion by missing the game-winning field goal against the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC Wild Card game.
  • 2019: After a 12-5 record the previous season, offseason hype in full swing, Chicago falls short with a mediocre 8-8 record that did not result in a playoff appearance.

Staying true to the theme of disaster in 2020, the Chicago Bears’ offseason was a disaster.  I break down the specifics and fantasy implications below.

2018 Pro Bowl: Patrick Mahomes, Mitchell Trubisky and Deshaun Watson. This picture makes my eyes bleed.

Offense: A Breakdown

The Bears’ offseason was not pretty. For starters, Kyle Long, Chicago’s all-pro right guard “retired.” Rumors emerged that Long is interested in still playing, but will not be in a Bears uniform. Long essentially told Ryan Pace he would rather not play football than be a Bear in 2020.

Losing their best offensive lineman will not help Chicago’s struggling QB play. According to Pro Football Focus, the Bears O-line ranked 25th overall in 2019 and I wouldn’t expect it to get any better in 2020. The only linemen Chicago added via free agency or the NFL draft were a pair of 7th round picks.

Speaking of free agency and the NFL draft, the Bears’ top priority apparently was tight end. Jimmy Graham was signed on the first day of the free agency period to a two-year, $16 million contract. It’s a head-scratcher considering that at age 33 Graham appears to be well past his prime, and no other NFL team was eager for his services. Instead, Ryan Pace overpaid for the tight end by signing him less than 24 hours after free agency began. To further compound Pace’s strange affinity with tight ends, he used their first overall pick (which was in the second round mind you, following the aftermath of the Khalil Mack trade) on Cole Kmet from Notre Dame, bringing the team’s tight end total to nine.

The highlight of Chicago’s offseason was trading for QB Nick Foles, another player past his prime. The fact that his acquisition was the bright spot of this offseason demonstrates the disaster the Bear’s QB play has been the past two seasons.

Quarterback

Mitchell Trubisky

To say that Trubisky has been a disappointment to this point would be an understatement, especially given the QBs he was selected over in the 2017 NFL draft. In 2019, Trubisky struggled with injuries and by all accounts regressed in all major passing categories. Trubisky has been touted as a good athlete, which helped his fantasy floor with rushing yards, but even that declined in 2019. Trubisky’s rushing attempts per game and yards per game dropped. When looking at value over replacement player (VORP) among QBs, Mitchell went from a respectable 6.3 in 2018 to an abysmal -10.7. Looking at all these statistics, it’s no surprise why Trubisky finished outside the top 20 for fantasy QBs.

And yet, Trubisky has value in fantasy leagues whose format is 2QB or Superflex, (The Undroppables preferred method of playing) strictly because he is a starting QB. Offseason reports have suggested that there is a “ QB competition,” but following Ryan Pace and his decision making skills, I believe that bringing in Nick Foles was fluff to some way justify the drafting of Mitchell Trubisky. The front office is going to give Trubisky every opportunity, even at the expense of their record.

Nick Foles

For the better part of Nick Foles’ career, he has been a serviceable backup QB. Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. That figured to change in 2019 when Foles landed in Jacksonville, but an early injury followed by Minshew Mania ended it. Now for his third time in three years, Foles is the projected 2nd string QB, but might have the clearest path to playing time.

As I outlined above, I am not confident in Trubisky’s abilities, and therefore at some point I would expect Foles to be named the starter. Like Trubisky, Foles does not have a lot of value in standard redraft or dynasty leagues, but in formats that allow you to start multiple QBs, he is an interesting flier. Over the past three seasons, Foles has only filled in, so it’s difficult to quantify any of his data for fantasy purposes. When breaking down his fantasy outlook, we need to take more of a commonsense approach. He’s a smart QB who plays to his strengths and adheres to his system. He has a decent cast of pass catchers, including Allen Robinson, David Montgomery, and Tarik Cohen. I envision him as a Josh McCown type in fantasy, someone who does not excite you per se, but could certainly be viable in the right scenario.

Running Back

David Montgomery

David Montgomery was certainly a disappointment last season, even by rookie standards. After a slow start, Montgomery was able to muster up some steam towards the back half of 2019, but still finished outside the top 20 for RBs. There’s a path for Montgomery to break into the RB2 conversation, but some things will need to change in 2020. He’ll need to either be more involved in the passing game, become a much more efficient runner, or the Bears need to get into the red zone more frequently.

Personally, I believe the former is the most likely scenario. 16 of the top RB finishers in 2019 had at least 40 targets. Besides TDs, receptions are the most valuable touches for fantasy RBs. Considering receiving was one of Montgomery’s strong suits coming out of Iowa State, it was confusing to not see him used that way last season. If Matt Nagy and the Bears incorporate Montgomery more in the passing game, then there’s a chance he’s a solid RB2/flex on fantasy rosters. Otherwise, if you roster him you could be in trouble. In games where Montgomery did not score a rushing TD, he averaged 8 PPR points per game. That will be crippling for a RB currently being drafted in the 4th round of 12-team leagues.

Tarik Cohen

Speaking of targets for RBs, Tarik Cohen turned in his second straight 90+ target season for Chicago last year. That might be surprising for fantasy managers who rostered Cohen, considering he dropped from a top-20 PPR back to ranking 44th in 2019. The cause for the drop-off: splash plays. In 2018, Cohen scored 8 TDs and had 7 plays of over 30 yards from scrimmage (one which was a 70-yard TD reception). In 2019, the pendulum swung the other way. Cohen had only 3 TDs with a single play over 30-yards. The fantasy community drafted Cohen at his ceiling and paid the price last year. There should be more home-run plays in store for Cohen in 2020, but it looks like 2018 was his apex. Other RBs being drafted in Cohen’s range are slated to be back-ups to start the season. They may be better assets if they are thrust into a starter’s role with a more steady workload.

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson

Paulie’s tweet on Allen Robinson fully encompasses what Allen Robinson is in the fantasy community: slept on. On a points per game basis in 2019, Robinson finished as a top-10 WR. In fact, he was one of the most consistent WRs in the top 10. Among the top-10 finishers at WR, A-Rob was 4th in consistency (hovering around his 16 fantasy point average in all games). Robinson also very rarely hurt fantasy teams. Only three times did Robinson have less than 10 PPR points (second lowest percentage among WRs in the top 10). He’s the epitome of what every fantasy manager wants from a WR1: Consistent producer who does not ruin your week. Yet because the Bears have the makings of a dumpster fire this year, Robinson continues to be underappreciated. His late 3rd/early 4th round ADP is a steal.

Despite some high profile names on the defensive side of the ball, the Bears defense took a step back in 2019 and they have question marks along their secondary. If he claims the job, Nick Foles would be the best QB Allen Robinson has played with since he entered the league. There’s a possibility that Chicago is in a lot of shootouts with A-Rob finally getting targets from a competent QB. Worst case scenario, Robinson is stuck with Trubisky where he has already proven that he can produce in spite of mediocrity.

Anthony Miller

The most intriguing fantasy asset on this Bears’ roster is Anthony Miller. After his rookie campaign, many were hopeful that Miller would be able to take the next step forward in 2019. Unfortunately, an ankle sprain derailed the start to his season and as a result Miller did not become fantasy relevant until Week 12. Prior to re-injuring his surgically repaired shoulder in Week 17, Miller was averaging 15.5 PPR points from Weeks 12-16, living up to the 2019 offseason hype. During that same period, he also finished second on the team in routes run behind only Allen Robinson. Miller is clearly the Bear’s #2 WR and firmly entrenched as their slot guy. Given the uncertainty at the tight end position, Miller shouldn’t have competition for targets in the middle of the field.

The only question mark is health. Miller has already injured the same shoulder twice, both times requiring surgery. In limited sample sizes, studies have shown that NFL players who suffer a shoulder instability event (like a dislocation) are likely to have a recurrent episode nearly 50% of the time. However, when those players received surgical intervention, that number dropped to 26%. Miller has already had a recurrent episode, so it’s something to monitor in the future. When healthy, Miller is heavily involved and has demonstrated he can produce.

Ted Ginn Jr.

Barring an injury to another Bears’ pass catcher, Ted Ginn Jr. does not carry any real worth in all fantasy league formats. At 35, he’s well past the age apex for WR production. The last time Ginn was a top-30 fantasy WR was 2015. So why the addition? A Chicago Tribune article suggests that Ginn was brought in to serve as a mentor and to add a veteran voice in the locker room. With the departure of Taylor Gabriel, it’s also likely that Ginn was added to give the Bears’ offense a deep threat to stretch the defense. Without consistent volume, these types of players can be a huge risk. During Ginn’s three seasons in New Orleans, he only saw 7 or more targets in 6 games. As if that isn’t enough to diminish his value, neither Trubisky nor Foles has thrived throwing the ball down the field. Both were in the bottom half of the league, averaging under 4.0 yards per completed pass attempt.

Darnell Mooney

Speaking of field stretchers, the Bears’ 5th round pick Darnell Mooney is a burner. Mooney ran a sub-4.40 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. To be clear, Mooney is not a target in redraft leagues, especially since Ted Ginn Jr. plays a role similar to his. However, Mooney is an interesting investment in dynasty leagues. He produced at a young age while at Tulane, which is what you want to see from a smaller school player. Mooney is a big play waiting to happen, and assuming the Bears don’t bring someone in next season, he could be in line for a breakout in 2021.

Tight End

Jimmy Graham

If the introduction to this article did not paint a clear enough picture for Jimmy Graham in 2020, allow me to elaborate: Graham is a touchdown-dependent tight end and he has failed to score more than 3 TDs in the last two previous seasons. Aside from his rookie year, Graham produced career lows in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Despite playing all 16 games in 2019, Graham still finished outside the top 20 among tight ends. On a points per game basis, he was outside the top 30. Unless you play in a 16-team fantasy league that starts multiple tight ends, I cannot envision a reason to roster Jimmy Graham.

Cole Kmet

In what many draft experts labeled a weak tight end class, the Bears of course reached for one using their first pick on Cole Kmet. To give you an idea of how poorly Pace maneuvered the 2020 draft, after Kmet was selected, 48 picks were made before another tight end went off the board. It also begs the question, why sign Graham or roster the other 7 TEs if you were planning on taking one early in the draft?

With Jimmy Graham on the team, Kmet has little value in redraft leagues. Not to mention, rookie TEs rarely ever break out early. For comparison, on a points per game basis both T.J. Hockenson and Noah Fant (whose profiles are far more impressive than Kmet’s) finished outside the top 25 in 2019. The last rookie tight end who was reliable was Evan Engram in 2017, only after the Giants WR corps was decimated with injuries. Kmet is an interesting dynasty asset, but I don’t think he’s the most intriguing prospect in this class. I prefer Devin Asiasi and Adam Trautman in rookie/startup drafts. Kmet is a well-rounded tight end whose numbers were rather underwhelming at Notre Dame. Don’t overextend yourself trying to acquire him.

Fantasy Summary

QB: Unless you are in a 2QB/Superflex league, neither Trubisky nor Foles hold much value. I prefer Foles between the two, but it could be a while depending on how stubborn GM Ryan Pace is.

RB: David Montgomery is risky, but could be a bona fide RB2 if he gets more targets. Tarik Cohen has gotten consistent passing down work, but without big plays he has shown he can burn fantasy teams. Look for him to bust off some long runs, but the top-20 PPR RB we saw in 2018 was likely his ceiling.

WR: A-Rob is a flat out stud and should be treated as such. For fantasy teams that wait on wide receiver, he’s a great asset to have as a WR1. Anthony Miller is intriguing, but has a lot of question marks in redraft leagues. I would take a flier on him or wait and see if he can be added over the waiver wire. Ted Ginn Jr. is unappealing. Mooney could be a taxi squad guy in deep dynasty leagues.

TE: It’s a wasteland. I’m not attracted to either of the players currently on Chicago’s roster.

Like the Offseason Breakdown series? Be sure to check out similar content from more of The Undroppables’ team members: Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, New York Giants, Los Angeles Rams, and New England Patriots.  

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