Our very own Randal Kennedy, aka @FF_Terminator, brings us his Detroit Lions offseason breakdown with the classic brevity we love from him. Enjoy!
Lions QB Matt Stafford was a beast in his first 8 games of 2019.
Matthew Stafford is back and that’s a great thing for Detroit. Stafford set career highs in TD rate (6.5%), YPA (8.6) and QBR (73.1) in his first half year with new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell. He’ll again feature the likes of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones in three-wide sets and try to implore defenses to focus their attention elsewhere in order to open up lanes for his running game.
Running Back
The Lions added Georgia standout D’Andre Swift in the second round of the NFL draft and followed that with two new guards in rounds three and four. The thinking in the motor city is that the running game will be much improved, but GM Bob Quinn has been throwing money and draft capital at his offensive line for years without much success.
Incumbent Kerryon Johnson has shown plenty of ability of his own, but he’s also shown a proclivity for getting hurt. The Auburn product has played just 18 games since being selected in the 2018 draft. Enter the aforementioned Swift, who didn’t miss a game his last three seasons between the hedges. Both these guys should provide plenty of fantasy value. Johnson is a particular value, as he’s being selected four rounds after his rookie counterpart.
Receivers
When the Lions do throw, they’ll look to gain big chunks of yardage with Kenny Golladay (18.3 YPC) and Marvin Jones, who scored nine times before his season ended prematurely. But don’t forget about T.J. Hockenson. While a member of the Seahawks coaching staff, Bevell ran a balanced offense that included the tight ends. One in every five passing plays involved one. During his time in Seattle, the tight end group accounted for twenty percent of targets and yardage while averaging 64 receptions and 6.5 touchdowns a season. The Lions spent the #10 overall pick on Hockenson in the 2019 draft, and I believe they intend to get him involved. He also provides a tremendous value at his current ADP.
The Lions also made strides to shore up their defense, selecting CB Jeff Okudah from Ohio State. The former All-American will likely start for Detroit right away, replacing Darius Slay. They also brought in veterans Duron Harmon and Jamie Collins. Both are former Patriots and both know Head Coach Matt Patrica’s system. The club also added former first round pick Desmond Trufant. Trufant had four interceptions in just nine games a season ago.
Final Thoughts
The Lions were 3-4-1 in Stafford’s eight starts and probably should have beaten the Chiefs. If they can keep their QB healthy and if the defense takes a step forward, this team could make some noise in the NFC north.
Stay tuned for the rest of our NFC North Breakdowns this week. For more of Randal’s articles, check out his offseason breakdowns of the 49ers, and Chargers, and Chiefs, only at theundroppables.com
From AFC East afterthought to division favorites, it has been a wild ride for the Buffalo Bills from 2019 offseason to 2020 offseason. The Bills have made some big moves to continue their competitive push, but how will it all shake out for fantasy football managers in 2020 and beyond?
Offense: An Overview
The Bills have made some big moves on the offensive side of the ball this offseason. The new additions brought in include Daryl Williams, Zack Moss, Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Hodgins, and of course Stefon Diggs. The team also extended head coach Sean McDermott to a multi-year deal, ensuring his vision for this team continues for the foreseeable future.
Quarterback
Josh Allen
Allen stepped up big for his team in 2020, leading them to the playoffs in his second year. He also finished as the QB7 in fantasy, with a large portion of production coming from his legs. Allen put up 510 rushing yards and 9 TDs. This accounted for 105 of his 290 fantasy points in 2019. This aspect of his game keeps him in the conversation for QB1 status. In fact, he put up 8 QB1 weeks in 2019, which was among the league leaders.
QB1 weeks over the course of 2019
The real question becomes, will the additions of Zack Moss and Stefon Diggs cause the Bills to ask their QB to take fewer risks on the ground?
The additions to the receiver group will bring those rushing totals down a bit, but the rushing possibility leaves him as a QB9-QB12 option with upside for me. The biggest step Allen must take is improving upon his horrid completion percentage. In 2018, among starting QBs, he finished as the 33rd QB in completion % (behind Josh Rosen), and in 2019 he finished 32nd. This must improve for him to be taken seriously as an NFL QB long term. Continuing to perform poorly there could lead to a shorter career.
This is something to keep in mind when valuing Allen in dynasty. If you believe he will overcome this hurdle, then now would be the time to invest as his price will only go higher. Yet if you have your doubts, as I do, then I am avoiding him for safer options or trading him to get peak value. In redraft, Allen is a fair value option, currently going around Rodgers, Ryan, and Brees in the 7th/8th round. Again, a bit high for my liking, but the rushing upside may make the value that much sweeter.
Jake Fromm
Honestly, the 2020 5th round pick is likely to be nothing more than a perennial backup at best in the NFL. His glory days are likely left back in Athens, Georgia where he was able to fend off 5-star recruit after 5-star recruit. For fantasy leagues, the only thing Fromm is good for is a taxi spot at best within the dynasty format. Even then, it’s solely in case of injury or opportunity elsewhere somewhere down the line.
Running Back
Devin Singletary
There is currently a divide between Moss believers and Singletary truthers, yet I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle. Singletary burst on to the scene in 2019, putting up two top-24 weeks with extremely limited touches. Then an injury hampered the prospect for a few weeks. Upon his return though, he took over snaps in the Bills backfield from Week 8 on. Over the course of the season, Singletary finished in the top 24 on 7 occasions within his 12 games played.
A player like that isn’t going to disappear even if Moss ends up living up to his own potential. Singletary’s consistency in the pass game will keep him relevant on the Bills, even if Moss eventually wins the job. I think this backfield will be a solid option to have as depth pieces, but neither should be your RB1 or RB2 within your roster. In redraft, Singletary offers up great RB3/Flex upside early and could be a solid trade chip after a big week or two. In dynasty I believe Singletary remains a solid flex play on both rebuilding and contending teams. He may be a good player to inquire about as his value is hard to place right now.
Zack Moss
With one of the easiest running back schedules of 2020, I think it’s well within the possibilities that the Bills produce two top 30 RBs. The 2020 3rd round pick from Utah could have a great opportunity to serve in the Frank Gore role we saw last year. This would get him on the field for at least 30% of snaps early. I also believe Moss being a heavier/stronger back will allow him to see more of the red zone work and maintain fantasy relevancy even with limited touches.
Moss is a slippery back, as is his counterpart, Singletary. The two will likely serve as a one-two punch in Buffalo, and I do not anticipate a complete takeover for either side. Both Moss and Singletary can serve as a threat through the air or the ground as well. Moss being a dual threat saw great efficiency across the board when given the ball.
Zack Moss among college running backs in 2019 (@PFF)
407 yards after the catch – 7th 14.5 yards after the catch per rec – 2nd 2.3 yards per route run – 9th 170 rec yards after contact – 7th 15 missed tackles forced on recs – 7th 9 explosive rec plays – 7th
As stated with Singletary, I believe Moss holds great value as an RB3/Flex option in both redraft and dynasty. If either running back is able to win the job outright, or an injury happens, then the healthy back could be a league-winner for many.
T.J. Yeldon
Yeldon isn’t likely to see much if any time on the field barring injury. There’s no value in redraft and I think it’s safe to leave him off of your dynasty rosters as well. Even in the case of an injury, I think a majority of touches will remain solely with the healthy back of the two above.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs
Diggs finally has his opportunity to be the undisputed #1 option on his team. This is a position I truly believe he can thrive in, but ADP is typically the reasoning he hasn’t landed on many of my teams. Diggs seems to getting picked around 4.09 with other options around him being Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, D.J. Moore, and D.J. Chark. I believe the upside for all of those players is greater than what you will get from Diggs.
Diggs is one of, if not the best route runner in the NFL. His separation and big play ability is hard to top, but he isn’t always seen as a red zone weapon. Diggs is similar to Tyreek Hill, with high boom weeks but also low floor weeks. A lot of Diggs’ top-end scoring ability will depend on the accuracy of his QB. If Allen improves in his accuracy, then Diggs could get back into the top 15 conversation once more.
At his current ADP, I’ve been passing on Diggs in many drafts. In dynasty formats, I wouldn’t be trading him away; his value feels like it’s at a middle-ground at this time. If the board falls right in redraft I won’t hesitate grabbing him, but he needs to drop into the 5th round with players such as Lockett, Woods, and similar pass catchers.
John Brown
Brown is one of the better route runners in the NFL, but not quite as good as his new teammate. That being said, John Brown is heavily undervalued as a veteran wide receiver. Brown finished as the WR20 in PPR leagues in 2019. Though some will fear Diggs may eat into his share, one could argue Diggs’ presence frees Brown up for more opportunities. Brown was taking the WR1 focus in Buffalo and still producing. Now he’ll be getting the #2 treatment, allowing for more separation and possibly more big plays as well.
Stefon Diggs and John Brown scored in the top-15 in both success rate vs. man AND press coverage last year in #ReceptionPerception. The Bills are just one of two teams with a duo of WRs who did this.
If I’m contending in a dynasty league, I am investing in Brown on the cheap (you can probably get him for a 3rd round rookie pick). In redraft, Brown is a late-round guy that could win you some weeks in PPR formats. Don’t sleep on this veteran wide receiver.
Cole Beasley
Beasley is a better NFL player than he is a fantasy option. In 2019, he was able to finish around the WR34 which was a solid flex option at times. Yet in 2020, the only format in which Beasley may be a useful player to roster would be deeper redraft leagues that have full PPR scoring. Even then, with the addition of Stefon Diggs and the strengths of John Brown, I find it hard for Beasley to continue to be a flex option. I would avoid him being on your roster in any format, as he’s the most likely to be hurt by new additions. That production gets even worse if younger players like Dawson Knox and Duke Williams find more snaps.
Gabriel Davis
The 4th round draft selection out of UCF is solely a long term dynasty investment, preferably in a taxi spot. He will hold no value in redraft formats. The best he could likely muster up is the #4 WR spot on his own team. At UCF, Davis had a decent sophomore season with 815 yards and 7 TDs. In his junior year he took the next step putting up a whopping 1,241 yards and 12 TDs. Davis is a big-bodied receiver, unlike the 3 guys in front of him, leaving some opportunity in certain packages.
Isaiah Hodgins
Similar to Davis, Hodgins was a day 3 pick in the 2020 NFL draft and likely will not see meaningful snaps in the 2020 (or 2021) season. His sole consideration is for taxi spots within dynasty formats.
Tight End
Dawson Knox
The only tight end on the Bills roster with any fantasy value is Knox, who showed flashes in 2019 when given the opportunity. That being said, Dawson is a raw prospect who saw the field inconsistently. By looks and metrics, Knox has the size, speed, and hands to succeed at the NFL level.
Dawson Knox PlayerProfiler metrics
The only part of his metrics that don’t stand out as above average is his college dominator. Yet with more time to develop in Buffalo’s system, I believe Knox is a year or two away from being a breakout candidate. For 2020, you can avoid him in redraft, though he could possibly be a streaming option later in the year. In dynasty he is a great low-value investment with the intangibles to be a solid piece in a few years.
Final Thoughts
The Buffalo Bills offense has a handful of players going later in drafts that can be very solid redraft options. The problem is that it’s difficult to tell who will be the best option to roster. On the dynasty side of things, I am only interested in the higher upside players with Moss & Diggs being the only locks that I would love to own. Allen could join those two if he’s able to show us better results through the air of course. If you believe in his talent, then get him sooner than later!
Welcome to the first annual edition of The Undroppables Hot Takes! The Undroppables analysts bring the heat with their boldest predictions for the upcoming fantasy football season!
Sam Darnold makes the leap and finishes as a Top 15 QB
I know it seems really spicy, but it’s more feasible than people think! Darnold closed the final 8 games of the fantasy season (Weeks 8-16) as the QB8 overall. This happened not only with the second worst protection rate in the league, (31st overall) but also with the 28th ranked supporting cast. Both of those should see bumps in 2020, giving Darnold more time to let the play develop with the Jets bringing in 6 new offensive lineman. On top of that, the additions of Breshad Perriman, Denzel Mims, and a healthy Chris Herndon should only help his case.
Now add in the fact that the Jets defense has taken some big hits with Jamal Adams being shipped out and C.J. Mosley opting out this year; this should lead to a lot of negative game scripts and more passing opportunities. One last thing in Darnold’s favor for 2020 is that he is in the same offensive system and playbook for the first time in his NFL career. Familiarity should only benefit him, no matter how much you despise Adam Gase. Darnold is currently going as QB25 in redraft ADP, so you can get him as a late flier or your QB2 and hope the upside shows through.
Baker Mayfield will rebound from last year’s struggles and finish as a Top 12 QB
Currently, the Expert Consensus Rankings pegs Baker as the QB19 in redraft (he finished as the QB19 last year.) The factors against Mayfield in 2020 include his recent struggles and the fact that Kevin Stefanski has taken over as the Browns’ head coach. Stefanski is most notable for limiting the Vikings’ passing game (e.g., Cousins, Thielen, Diggs) but Cousins still had respective finishes over the past two seasons as the QB15 and QB13.
Stefanski isn’t the only coaching change in Cleveland, however. The Browns also hired Bill Callahan to coach their offensive line. Callahan is well known as a great o-line coach, so he should bring sound blocking schemes and coaching to a group in transition. Cleveland also signed free agent linemen Jack Conklin from the Titans. Between their marquee signing and 10th overall draft pick Jedrick Wills Jr., I expect a welcome improvement to the offensive line.
Last year from Week 1 through 6, Baker averaged 13.06 points per game and ranked at QB21. Cleveland then had its bye in Week 7 and Kareem Hunt returned after the bye week. From Week 9 through 17, Mayfield produced 17.70 points per game as the QB9. This is quite a stark difference, as the addition of Hunt and his receiving prowess helped Baker be more efficient: his second-half numbers included a 60.1% completion rate and near 2:1 touchdown to interception ratio (15-8).
As Marc Mathyk pointed out, Mayfield has never finished better than QB17 in his first two seasons. It appears that Baker realizes that the time has come for him to reach the high expectations set by him and the Browns. He’s been noticeably quiet and away from the public eye, presumably focused on 2020 and preparing himself to make the leap.
Jonathan Taylor will see what Vegas has deemed the easiest schedule in 2020 behind arguably the best offensive line in football. The only thing between him and a dominant fantasy football season is Marlon Mack, who is coming off a 2019 season with 1,000 rushing yards. Let me tell you why that isn’t stopping JT from eating: in 2019, the Colts rushed the ball 471 times; Mack got 247 of those carries. If we assume an even split, JT still gets over 200 carries. His college statistics, coach’s comments, and elite SPARQ rating tell me he will make the most of those opportunities and earn more.
Cam Akers is the rookie RB1 and finishes as a Top 12 RB
Cam Akers will beat out Darrell Henderson and earn the starting running back spot vacated by the departure of Todd Gurley. With a majority of the Ram’s rushes and over 50 targets, Akers will finish as the highest-scoring rookie running back.
Ronald Jones holds off the competition and finishes as a low-end RB1
Ronald Jones came into the NFL early. He’s only 23 years old and is finally putting it all together in terms of what it takes to be an NFL back. LeSean McCoy is a veteran depth piece, and Head Coach Bruce Arians gives rookies like Ke’Shawn Vaughn the invisible treatment. Jones has more scoring opportunities in a potent, Brady-led offense, and his 10.0 yard per catch and top-tier yards after contact statistics prove he can be a productive weapon. My projection for Jones sits at 190 carries for 855 yards & 42 receptions for 378 yards with 8+ TDs.
Nick Chubb will be a Top 3 Dynasty RB this time next year
With Kevin Stefanski coming over from Minnesota bringing a run heavy approach, combined with the Browns adding Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr. to the starting lineup, it sets up Nick Chubb to have another fantastic year. Stefanski brought in seasoned o-line coach Bill Callahan and his 21 years of NFL experience, which should help Wills Jr speed up the transition to LT and pull it all together up front and put the offense on the right track. If and when Hunt leaves in the offseason, and Mike McCarthy doesn’t use Zeke to his full potential, then Chubb is a top 3 dynasty running back this time next year.
In Michael Thomas’ second year in the NFL, he posted a receiving line of 104 receptions, 1,245 yards, and 5 touchdowns in 16 games, with Hall-of-Famer Drew Brees as his quarterback. With Kyle Allen as his quarterback for D.J. Moore’s second year, his 16-game pace (based on 14 full games played) was 98 receptions, 1,324 yards, and 5 touchdowns.
Moore is only 23 years old, he’s going into his highly-touted “3rd year breakout” season, hes’ getting an upgrade at QB in Teddy Bridgewater, and LSU’s former offensive coordinator Joe Brady is now the OC in Carolina. Top it with the fact that Head Coach Matt Rhule offered Moore a scholarship to Temple as he was coming out of high school, and it’s obvious the stars are aligning for D.J. Moore to be the next Fantasy Stud WR.
Juju Smith-Schuster will be a Top 7 WR in his last year as a Steeler
Obviously, Juju Smith-Schuster relies on the health of Ben Roethlisberger, and this take makes the assumption that we’re going to get a full season out of both players. Juju is playing for a contract, and it’s my belief that he wants to leave Pittsburgh to come back home and play in Los Angeles.
We haven’t heard very much from Juju this offseason. Whereas previous off-season‘s he was all over social media being a clown and having a good time, but not this year. That says to me he was focused when it’s gonna come out more motivated than ever. He put on 15 pounds of muscle so he can carry the weight of being a number one receiver on that team and I think ultimately his desire is to come play at home. One way for him to do that is to be a top 10 wide receiver in 2020.
• Adam Thielen was the 26th ranked WR last year per PFF • Only 2 WRs older than 30 ranked inside their top 25 (Julio & E Sanders) • a 30 Y/O WR has recorded 90+ receptions just 18 times • only 4 WRs the last three years have topped 1,000 yards • With Diggs in Buffalo pic.twitter.com/wDsELJ12xw
Jonnu Smith – A Thread. Who: Starting TE for the Tennessee Titans What: A low-end TE 1 in 2020 Why: Opportunity, Athleticism. Continued Below ↓@TheUndroppables
Last year, Waller was one of the NFL’s most productive tight ends, but people are wondering if he can repeat. Looking at some of the most predictive stats to following season fantasy points (r^2 > 40%), Waller was second in YAC, fourth in receiving first downs per game, and third in receiving yards per game among tight ends. Looking beyond production, he’s more athletic than almost every other TE in the league, with a 99th percentile speed score and 90th percentile burst score. Both 2019’s production and his athleticism add up to a big year in 2020.
People are saying that the additions of rookie wide receivers Henry Ruggs and Bryan Edwards will eat into his target share in an already run-happy offense. While they will get their targets, targets are funneled to good players, and Waller stands among the elite at his position. Kyle Borgognoni wrote a great article debunking the narrative that “there are too many mouths to feed.” Additionally, rookie wide receivers don’t tend to be very productive in their first year. Since 1990, only 15% of first round rookie wide receivers have finished as a top-24 WR.
Waller is going to be elite, fade him at your own risk. Just take it from Jason Witten, “I think he’s going to be a star … I don’t think there’s a limit to what he can achieve in this league.”
For more quality fantasy content, follow us on Twitter, @TheUndroppables.
Damien Williams turned the fantasy world on its head when he opted out of the 2020 season. He effectively ended one of the league’s best training camp battles before it even started. That leaves newcomer Clyde Edwards-Helaire holding the keys to one very fast Ferrari.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire may just win you your fantasy league in 2020 & for many years to come.
In the potent Chiefs offense, CEH becomes an immediate threat out of the backfield with his versatility & is worth going into the first round to get.
A first round pick in this spring’s NFL draft, the former LSU standout should thrive with his ability to make defenders miss in space. His versatility will allow offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy to move him all over the formation. The only potential fly in the ointment could be his inability to keep his QB upright. He ranked 314th out of 349 qualified FBS running backs in pass protection. Struggles could crack the door open for backfield mate Darrell Williams or second year pro Darwin Thompson. Both have flashed ability but neither have been able to sustain success at the NFL level.
The Legion of Zoom
The NFL’s most explosive offense has been a mixture of Andy Reid’s west coast attack with elements of a vertical spread mixed in. The 2019 Chiefs were second in yards per play and sixth in pace, but just 25th in plays per game, indicating they like to go downfield and gain chunks of yardage.
Enter Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman. Hill’s yards per catch was down slightly from the sizzling 17 he averaged in 2018, but that’s due more to his diversified route tree than any loss of ability. He’s worked hard on his game and it shows. When teams take away the deep ball, Hill is just as deadly on simple stop routes. Also, no WR ran the ball as many times as Hill did in 2020. The Chiefs incorporate a lot of fly-motion in their concepts, the idea being to get their guys one on one in space. This is something the Chiefs do very well.
Travis Kelce celebrates in the end zone.
One would be remiss without mentioning tight end Travis Kelce. As of this writing, the mercurial TE had just signed a four-year, $57.25 million extension. Well earned for someone who has finished as fantasy’s TE1 four straight seasons. Kelce is a mid-second round pick if you want him on your fantasy team. If you play in a TE premium league, that’s a relative bargain.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes signed his own 10-year, $503 million mega-deal that will keep him slinging passes in Arrowhead. One year after winning the league’s MVP, he ended the Chiefs 50-year Super Bowl drought. Even though he took a step back statistically from his monster 2018, he’s still the overall QB1 for fantasy purposes, especially in leagues that award 6 points for passing TDs.
Final Thoughts
The Chiefs seemingly locked up all their important pieces this offseason. Inking Chris Jones on the defensive side of the ball was key. Everything is in place for another Super Bowl run. It’s a great time to be a Kansas City Chief, and a great time for fantasy managers to cash in on Andy Reid’s genius.
The final installment of The Undroppables NFC East offseason breakdown, covering the Philadelphia Eagles, is here! We’ve saved the “best” for last. The best is in large air quotes because we all know Dallas is better! 😀
The Eagles are the one organization that remained constant in 2020 with an offseason that didn’t see complete turnover from the inside. However, they set a goal to establish themselves with weapons to support Carson Wentz, while also making sure they make changes to the 18th ranked defense according to PFF.com. The first thing the Eagles set out to do was to upgrade a secondary that ranked 23rd in PFF Coverage grade. Enter Darius Slay in a trade with Detroit. Of corners with at least 400 coverage snaps, Slay ranked 24th in opposing quarterbacks NFL Pass Rating when targeted. He was tied for 5th in interceptions and only gave up three TDs on the season despite being targeted the 12th most (84). The Eagles also signed Nickel Robey-Coleman, who added comparable coverage numbers with an NFL Pass Rating when targeted only 84.2. Robey-Coleman was targeted fewer times than Slay despite playing more snaps in coverage. The Eagles also added to a run-defense that already ranks inside the top 10 by signing former Steeler Javon Hargrave.
Offensively, the Eagles made some questionable decisions. They decided not to sign a WR in free agency and drafted a QB in the 2nd-round of the NFL Draft. However, the team did make sure to get Wentz a few new toys with the drafting of speedster Jalen Reagor and trading for Marquis Goodwin. They also did not to address the offensive line that is getting older and often injured. Philly lost pro-bowl guard Brandon Brooks for the season following a torn Achilles during an off-season workout session. They also resign pro-bowl tackle, Jason Peters, to a one-year deal. Peters will likely move to right guard in his 17th season after playing left tackle for most of his career.
Quarterbacks
The Quarterbacks room in the Eagles training facility will continue to be led by Carson Wentz. Wentz is an absolute monster and will continue to control the huddle for the Eagles for at least a few more years. Wentz has some significant injury concerns, and it forced the Eagles to make a move to draft Heisman finalist Jalen Hurts in the 2nd round. Hurts comes to the Eagles with dominant numbers in college. He played in two national championship games and reached the College Football Playoff with Oklahoma in his only year in Norman. Hurts brings a dynamic skill level of both arm talent and the ability to move on the ground. He was the fastest QB in this years combine running a sub 4.6 40-yard dash and finished 2nd in the Heisman voting behind #1 overall pick Joe Burrow.
I'll say this again and stand by it: Carson Wentz has done more with less than any QB in the NFL right now. https://t.co/hX56zIFE8i
Despite the Tony Romo-esque career, Wentz is arguably one of the best QBs in the NFL. If not for a torn ACL, Wentz was the hands-down winner of the MVP award and likely the Super Bowl-winning QB in 2018, not Nick Foles. Wentz was dominant last season with a ham sandwich and a bag of chips as receiving options. Other than Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert, most of the players catching passes for the Eagles came off practice squads. Only one receiver played all 16 games last year, and that was J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. Down the stretch, JJAW and former college QB Greg Ward were the only receivers to play more than three games. Despite the lack of weapons around him, Wentz finished the 7th best fantasy QB in 2019 from weeks 11 – 17. In that time frame he threw for 6th most yards (1,979) and the 7th most touchdowns (12). In 2020, seven QBs are being drafted before Carson Wentz. Of those seven, only two of them scored more fantasy points down the stretch than Wentz. With new weapons and an off-season for the existing threats to get healthy, Wentz should continue his hot finish to 2019.
Running Backs
Miles Sanders may no longer be competing with Jordan Howard for goal-line work, but he certainly isn’t going to have it easy with Boston Scott still running around. Miles Sanders had a tremendous second half of the year in 2019, finishing as RB12 in PPR fantasy scoring. Sanders gained nearly 700 all-purpose yards after week ten and scored four times good for 120.6 fantasy points. Sanders also saw his touches rise from 97 in the first nine games of the season to 131 in the final eight weeks. Making defenders miss was key to Sanders’ success evading the 13th most tackles with the 5th best juke rate. In the last seven games of the season, Sanders averaged 14.7 carries per game, up from his year-long average of only 11.2. Although it seemed at times that Boston Scott wouldn’t go away, the numbers don’t add up. Over the same stretch, Scott amassed just 45 touches with only 238 yards and one touchdown.
Meanwhile, Sanders had the leagues 8th most red zone carries, 4th most TDs from inside the 5-yard line. If you are one of those players who believe in the narrative, Miles Sanders is set to explode in his sophomore season. With RB1 upside, Sanders could finish top-5 at his position in 2020, while Boston Scott is likely to play the Darren Sproles role in this offense.
Wide Receivers
The Eagles have never really put any resources into providing WR weapons for their QBs. Since 2010, only four Eagles receivers have finished inside the top-24 fantasy WRs. Only one of those – Jeremy Maclin – ever reached the top-10. Last year was no different, with the top two receiving options being aged veterans. Alshon Jeffery has played 16 games in a season just once in the previous five seasons.
On the other hand, DeSean Jackson has played 16 games in a season only once in his entire 12-year career. Both would end up being injured and miss at least six games with Jackson missing 13. The Eagles would draft JJAW and sign Greg Ward to the practice squad, and while only one of them played 16 games (JJAW), it wasn’t until Greg Ward officially made the team’s main roster that things began to change for Philly. Ward was a stud down the stretch making big plays and helping the Eagles secure the NFC East title. The Eagles receiving core is mostly untouched in 2020. However, the team finally put some draft capital in the position by taking Jalen Reagor in the first round. The selection of Reagor would mark the fourth time since 2000 the Eagles have selected a receiver in the first round. Unfortunately for them, the previous three options didn’t pan out. However, Reagor has some insane ball skills that should provide value to both your fantasy team and the Eagles organization.
Tight Ends
Zach Ertz making it look easy.
The one position group offensively that has been a significant focus for the Eagles organization has been Tight End. That started in 2013 when the organization selected Zach Ertz in the 2nd round. It continued in 2018 when the Eagles selected Dallas Goedert in the 2nd round of that draft. In 2019, both Goedert and Ertz finished in the top 10 of fantasy scoring for TEs. In Goedert’s rookie season, they both finished top-20. The Eagles offense uses their TEs like receivers, which is why they haven’t needed a pure #1 wide reciever. Ertz has gradually risen the fantasy rankings since entering the league in 2013. In his rookie season, he finished as TE23. Since then, he has been top-13 in each year and improving to top-5 over the last three seasons. As long as Ertz is healthy and Wentz remains the QB you can expect this kind of production.
There is a pure connection between the two – very similar to Tony Romo and Jason Witten. Despite finishing 4th in TE PPR scoring last year, Ertz is in line for positive regression in 2020. For the first time since 2014, Ertz had a catch% less than 70% in 2019. With the lack of work and comfort for new receiver, Jalen Reagor due to this very abnormal offseason, Wentz and his TE connection should get even better in 2020. If Ertz can get back over that 70% catch rate, we could be looking at even more catches, yards, and touchdowns. With a current TE4 ADP that only equates to free value if he does.
