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Cincinnati Bengals 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Marc Mathyk
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Cincinnati Bengals 2020 Offseason Breakdown

The reward for being the NFL’s worst team is getting the following year’s first overall rookie pick. The Cincinnati Bengals won this distinction in 2019 and were gifted former LSU quarterback Joe Burrow. When it comes down to all team sports, the quarterback is the most important player period. Even though an NFL team has 22 starters compared to nine in baseball, six in ice hockey and five in basketball, a quarterback’s value trumps everything. A great quarterback will not only improve the team’s offense, but also help out the entire team by keeping the defense off the field.

On “Burrowed” Time

After a pretty respectable run with Andy Dalton under center, the wheels fell off in 2019. The Bengals were 2-14 in 2020. However, in his nine seasons as a starter, the Bengals were good for the first five but were under .500 in the last four. It was time for a coaching change a year ago and this year it was time to change the face of the franchise.

Now the Bengals are all in on Joe Burrow, the one-year wonder. This is concerning for sure, but what a year it was. Burrow threw for 5,671 yards, which was third most in NCAA history. His 10.8 yards per attempt ranks as eighth best in NCAA history, but his 12.5 adjusted passing yards per attempt lifts him to fourth best. His 76.3% completion percentage is the second best in college history. He threw for 60 touchdowns, the most in NCAA history, while only throwing six interceptions. Burrow is also the record holder for the best passing efficiency rating in a single season at 202.

Burrow did all of this while playing in the toughest conference (SEC). To prove any doubters wrong, in the national title game against Clemson, Burrow had a six touchdown performance. He went 15-0 on the season and won the Heisman Trophy with 94% of the first place votes.

In the fantasy world, Burrow is currently QB20 according to FantasyPros Consensus Rankings. Absolutely grab him as your second quarterback in redraft. If he turns out to be what many believe he can be, he might be your starter sooner than later. If he’s bad, then you only need to plug him in for a bye week or drop him for someone entirely different. He’s worth taking the risk and could be an inexpensive difference maker.

Offensive Line Will Be Better

According to Pro Football Focus, the Cincinnati Bengals had the 30th ranked offensive line. They were only better than the Miami Dolphins and the Los Angeles Rams. They drafted Hakeem Adeniji at the start of the sixth round. He brings versatility and played every game in college for Kansas. He was thought to be a third of fourth round talent according to Jordan Reid of the Draft Network. The Bengals also signed Xavier Su’a-Filo, a former second-round pick. He’s not been anything special but he is better than what they’ve had.

The most important news is the Bengals get Jonah Williams back. He was a first-round pick in 2019, but missed the entire season because of injury. He should help Michael Jordan, who was a fourth-round pick last season. Jordan had an inconsistent rookie season, but he was the youngest player on the team and will have more talent around him, namely Williams. Don’t expect Cincinnati’s offensive line to be top five, but if they finish around the middle of the pack, they would benefit both Burrow and Joe Mixon tremendously.

Defensive Makeover Will Take Time

Cincinnati might be a better team in 2020 by investing quite heavily in the defense. However, defenses don’t go from worst to best overnight. It will take time for signed free agents like cornerback Trae Waynes and safety Vonn Bell to gel.  Cincinnati also drafted three linebackers, so the middle of their defense could be better, but this won’t happen overnight. Losing a veteran presence like Nick Vigil (who signed with the Rams) will make this defense rely on players like Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins to lead the group.

600 Reasons To Draft Burrow

As excited and hopeful Bengals fans must feel right now, they need to temper expectations for 2020. There are a lot of new faces on both sides of the ball. One thing is going to be apparent – they are going to struggle in many games and be forced to throw the ball often. This is good for Joe Burrow. Last year, Cincinnati quarterbacks had a combined 616 pass attempts. Don’t be surprised if those numbers remain about the same.

Joe Burrow might experience some growing pains at times and won’t be as accurate as he was in college, but he should be better than Dalton and company were last year. More attempts means more completions; with the high passing volume, Burrow should be able to hit 20 touchdown passes with the potential for more. A.J. Green is back. The offensive line will be better. This offense should have no problem moving the ball.

This benefits Mixon, Boyd, and Green, but it especially benefits Burrow as long as he plays to the level most are expecting. He won’t be Patrick Mahomes, but he should be better than his current QB20 ranking. Volume will be there. His efficiency needs to be just average, and Burrow can also add value through his better-than-average rushing ability.

Joe Mixon is #GoodatFootball

Joe Mixon has not lived up to expectations in three years, but he’s never had much help. Despite playing on a poor offense with a horrific offensive line in 2019, Mixon showed many why he has the potential to be a star. People need to ignore stats like yards per carry and focus on tangibles that show his talent.

Bengals
Mixon must be hyped for Joe Burrow under center.

Mixon’s 278 carries was tied for fifth in the league. That’s pretty exceptional considering he played on a team that wasn’t winning. His volume will go up as Cincinnati will improve, even if it’s ever so slightly. He was also seventh with a 27.7% Dominator Rating. That was better than Ezekiel Elliot, Josh Jacobs, Nick Chubb, Todd Gurley, Saquon Barkley, and Le’Veon Bell. Playing with Burrow (who loved targeting Clyde Edwards-Helaire at LSU) can only help him. He’s never been utilized in the passing game enough in the past. This should be an area Mixon must be salivating over, knowing that he might be used more extensively.

To go along with volume, Mixon showed signs last year that he’s elite. His 32.9% juke rate was fourth best out of running backs with at least 100 carries. He was only behind Mark Ingram, Adrian Peterson, and Devin Singletary. Only Raheem Mostert and Saquon Barkley had more than Mixon’s 1.84 yards created per touch. Finally, Mixon had 6.4 evaded tackles per game. That was the most in the entire league.

The time is now for Mixon to assert himself as a top-tier running back in the NFL.

Tyler Boyd & A.J. Green = Value

Tyler Boyd and A.J. Green are good values at their current WR29 and WR30 ADPs. Boyd is similar to Jarvis Landry: he comes with a safe floor and a limited ceiling. Green is more like an Odell Beckham Jr. He has the potential to be a WR1, even at the age of 31, the caveat being if he can remain healthy. Boyd is the safe play, while Green is the high risk/reward choice.

Boyd is coming off of two consecutive 1,000 yard seasons. He had 90 receptions last year but was less efficient than in 2018. This makes sense since the Bengals offense was terrible to begin with. If he can mesh the efficiency of 2018 with the volume of 2019, he has the potential to reach the 1,200-yard mark. Last year that would have placed him in the top five in yards. He’s never been a touchdown machine either, so any kind of positive regression would only bolster his value in fantasy.

A.J. Green’s talent and production has never been questioned. The problem with Green has been his health. He’s missed 13 games in three years. However, when he plays he is elite. In his career, Green has averaged 87 receptions for 1,284 yards and 9 touchdowns over a 16-game season. The last time he was on the field was in 2018 when he only played nine games, but was as dominant as ever.

Many think that Green is done. However, if he were truly finished, why then would Cincinnati throw the $18 million franchise tag on him when they could have easily let him walk and sign elsewhere? Expect Green to be in the conversation for Comeback Player of the Year in 2020 if he avoids the injury bug that has plagued him for the last few seasons.

The Third Man

While A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd will be the receiving focus on the Bengals, the third option remains blurry for 2020. Tee Higgins was drafted at the beginning of the second round and has the talent to eventually replace Green, but might not get as much playing time as people are hoping for. Former first rounder John Ross only played in eight games in 2019, but in three games he was electric; Ross remains a fantasy boom or bust type of player. He is probably the de facto starter, but will be on a short leash. If Ross fails to stay healthy or doesn’t start off like a house on fire, the team might turn to Auden Tate, who surprised many with his quiet contribution in 2019. Tate played 12 games and saw 80 targets (even though he only caught half of them.)

In any case, trying to figure out which player to draft is futile. Arrows seem to be pointing to Ross, but the team could go with any of these three as the #3 WR. Even if one rises above the others, he won’t be a consistent contributor that will be worth rostering in most leagues. Higgins remains the guy to target in dynasty, however.

A Late Sample Stash

The tight end position was one Cincinnati chose to ignore this offseason. They lost Tyler Eifert and did not replace him. C.J. Uzomah has only proven to be average at best. He’s most likely  going to be the starting tight end who will see the most action. That said, sophomore Drew Sample is an interesting wild card. There has been some talk that he has been practicing as a movable piece, lining up as both a tight end and as a wide receiver. He’s a sneaky late round-add in dynasty, and could be the tight end to roster by mid-season. The good news is he is basically free, so he can be that final round flier to take a chance on.

Conclusion

Apart from Joe Mixon, who isn’t cheap but still could still outperform his current ADP, every other offensive player on the Bengals is undervalued. Therefore, target any and all of these guys. Joe Burrow, and A.J. Green have the best potential value returns. Tyler Boyd might not return as much value, but is the constant contributor that is as close to a sure thing as any in 2020.

For more of Marc Mathyk’s coverage on the AFC North, check out offseason breakdowns of the Steelers, Browns, and Ravens.

COVID-19 Late Round Redraft Strategy Guide

Vivek Iyer
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COVID-19 Late Round Redraft Strategy Guide

With COVID-19 affecting the whole world, it is no wonder that football, and by extension fantasy football, has been affected as well. With uncertainty around player opt-outs, players contracting COVID-19, or being placed on the reserve list before and during the season, fantasy managers must adjust their draft and in-season strategies significantly. In this COVID-19 Late Round Redraft Strategy Guide, I will propose three main strategies to minimize the adverse impacts of COVID-19 for fantasy football.

Helpful Terminology

Here are some common terms that are worth understanding for this unique 2020 season:

Reserve/COVID-19 List: Players who have either contracted COVID-19 or have been in close contact with individuals who have tested positive for the virus. NFL teams cannot disclose which category a player belongs to, and thus timetables for return are nebulous.

Opt-Out List: Players who have opted out of the 2020 NFL season. There are two categories: high and low risk (category affects compensation and cap hits for 2020/2021). Players had until August 6th to opt out, however can do so later due to medical or family reasons.

Active/PUP List: Players could have been placed on this list before training camp practices had begun due to a football-related injury. Players can return when healthy, however then they cannot return to the PUP list.

Reserve/PUP List: If players on the Active/PUP List are not ready to play in Week 1, they can be moved to the Reserve/PUP List. These players cannot return for the first six weeks of the season, however don’t count against the 53-man roster. After these six weeks, players have an additional six weeks to begin practicing. Teams have 21 days after that to decide if the player will be activated to the 53-man roster, be released, or go back on the PUP (if still not ready to play). If a player cannot practice within that six-week window (7-12), they remain on the PUP List. For more information, feel free to check this link out.

Strategy: Handcuffing RBs?

Handcuffing players in fantasy football means drafting their backup to contribute at a high level if an injury occurs to the starter. Handcuffs can occasionally have standalone value as well, for instance committee running backs like Kareem Hunt. So is this strategy worth it for your fantasy team?

Pros:

  • High-End Handcuffs can step in and become RB1s if injuries occur.
  • High-End Handcuffs can also have standalone value in platoon situations.
  • Positional scarcity means that handcuffs often have the most upside of any player around the same draft position.
  • These potential “league-winners” can be found in the double-digit rounds.

Cons:

  • Handcuffs can occupy roster spots without providing week-to-week value
  • Most handcuffs rely on injuries to starters to become playable
  • Many handcuffs don’t prove their value until the starter gets injured, and thus won’t necessarily demonstrate early on whether they’re worth keeping on your roster. If they don’t show promise quickly, they’ll be on the waiver wire.
  • Going too “handcuff-heavy” can result in a lack of startable depth in the event of injuries, poor performance, and bye weeks for your own running back corps.

Verdict

Handcuffing running backs is a smart strategy if implemented properly. Managers must strike a balance between handcuffs and startable depth, valuing both upside and stability. Handcuffs can be drafted regardless of whether you drafted the starter, however if the starter is owned then the handcuff is slightly more valuable. COVID-19 increases the chances that a player will miss time, making high-end handcuffs even more valuable.

Here are some common RB handcuffs that are worth rostering in redraft leagues: Kareem Hunt, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, Latavius Murray, J.K. Dobbins, Marlon Mack, Tevin Coleman, James White, Tarik Cohen, Zack Moss, Kerryon Johnson, Matt Breida, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Darrell Henderson, Antonio Gibson, DeAndre Washington.

Other handcuffs to keep on your radar: Ryquell Armstead, Darrynton Evans, Duke Johnson, Justin Jackson (one of my favorite late round targets), A.J. Dillon, Reggie Bonnafon, Giovani Bernard, Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller (especially if indications surface of Sony Michel’s recovery not progressing well).

Strategy: Drafting Safe Options in the Later Rounds?

Drafting known commodities in the later rounds that can fill in due to injuries or unforeseen circumstances is always valuable, however it’s even more important given the COVID-19 factor.

Pros:

  • Minimizes risk in a season filled with uncertainty.
  • Can provide flex-level startable assets.
  • Can be counted on for consistent production.
  • Role in the offense is often known.

Cons:

  • Doesn’t provide league-winning upside.
  • Too much safe depth could lead to wasted roster spots, as some dependable players won’t make your starting lineup enough times to justify this strategy.
  • Breakout chances are lower.
  • Not viable at every position or in every format (SF/2QB)

Verdict

With COVID-19 eliminating the preseason and affecting training camp, 2020 production is more uncertain for late-round selections than in years past. With increased chances for starters to miss time in the regular season, safe options on your bench are needed. The key is to strike an appropriate balance between upside and safety, and a good rule of thumb is to keep at least 2 safe options on your bench that you can count on for production (for standard sized redraft leagues).

Drafting safe options in the later rounds works best for the WR position, as RB depth is severely depleted in the double digit rounds and QB depth is not needed for standard 1QB leagues. For SF/2QB leagues, QB depth in the later rounds is often restricted to quarterbacks in nebulous situations, and thus safe options are often not present. Late round tight ends have historically been speculative picks as well, and thus don’t fit this strategy.

Strategy: Drafting Rookies?

With COVID-19 shortening offseasons and preventing rookies from learning the system and developing chemistry with their teams, it’s worth examining whether investing in rookies is smart this year.

Pros:

  • Uncertainty surrounding future NFL production can create a wide range of outcomes, creating high upside relative to similarly valued veteran players.
  • Rookies can quickly build value with early successes.
  • Rookies often have higher breakout potential than other late round players.

Cons:

  • Shortened preparation in the preseason will hurt rookies who need the time to learn their offensive system and develop trust with their QB/Coach.
  • Rookie tight ends are practically undraftable historically, while Rookie wide receivers are typically not very productive until the end of the season.
  • Rookies have a lower floor than similarly valued veterans.

Verdict

Drafting rookies in redraft leagues this season is generally unadvised at their cost. No rookie TE or QB should be drafted in standard redraft settings, and all rookie receivers are volatile, later round targets at best. Be sure to watch training camp reports, as these can have significant impacts on rookies.

Despite shortened preseasons, there are still some rookies that should be drafted in most redraft leagues (in no particular order): Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Johnathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, Cam Akers, J.K. Dobbins, Zack Moss, Antonio Gibson, Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Jalen Reagor, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Justin Jefferson, Henry Ruggs III, Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman Jr.

Others in consideration:

  • Denzel Mims: Potential to become the Jets #1 WR in production, but likely not in targets because of Jamison Crowder.
  • Laviska Shenault: An electric gadget player who could take on a significant role as the season progresses.
  • Bryan Edwards: Very talented WR that fell in the NFL draft due to his injuries. He projects to be a starting perimeter WR.
  • Joshua Kelley: Watch the splits between Kelley and Jackson in training camp and early on in the season.
  • Anthony McFarland: Potential for standalone opportunity and an expanded role if James Conner goes down. McFarland comes with his own injury concerns.
  • Darrynton Evans: A handcuff with deep PPR appeal.
  • A.J. Dillon: Purely a handcuff.

Final Thoughts

COVID-19 has made a massive impact on fantasy football strategy for 2020. By balancing upside and safety in the late rounds, your squad will be able to weather the increased injuries and missed time that will result, while also swinging for the fences with picks that can win your league. With all the troubles in the world, hopefully fantasy football can serve as a fun escape this season. So, good luck in 2020 and beyond!

Follow Vivek Iyer on Twitter for more fantasy football content! If you would like to read more articles, such as our offseason team breakdown series, feel free to check them out on theundroppables.com. Thank you for reading!

Washington Football Team Offseason Breakdown

Justin Mandaro
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Washington Football Team Offseason Breakdown

The NFC East Offseason Preview continues with a look at the Washington Football Team. This organization was at the center of several controversial conversations this offseason. Things heated up quickly as they have for many years about the team’s name and mascot. Fifteen women came forward regarding sexual misconduct and verbal abuse from team staffers just weeks after the team decided to change their name. But wait, there’s more: highly-touted running back Derrius Guice was arrested on charges of domestic abuse, which includes a charge for strangulation.

The offseason wasn’t all sour grapes, though. Like fellow NFC East rivals New York and Dallas, the organization made changes to the coaching staff. Ron Rivera represents the head of the team, while Jack Del Rio and Scott Turner have come in to manage the defense and offense, respectively. Washington has had one winning head coach in nearly 40 years and has only nine winning seasons since 1991. The revamped front office and coaching staff look to plant their flag and turn things around.

Offseason Moves

With a heavy focus on bolstering the 27th ranked defense, Rivera and company went to work. Washington signed free agents Sean Davis, Ronald Darby, and Kendall Fuller. They would also bring in a veteran presence in the front seven with acquisitions of Thomas Davis Sr., Jon Bostic, and Kevin Pierre-Louis. The team continued their defensive focus with the drafting of stud defensive end Chase Young out of Ohio State. Young was touted as the best player in the draft for months and gets paired with three other first-round selections on the defensive line, Montez Sweat, Da’Ron Payne, and Jonathan Allen.

Although Washington focused a significant amount of time on the defensive side of the ball, a trade for former Panthers QB Kyle Allen, plus draft selections of Antonio Gibson and Antonio Gandy-Golden should help move the offense forward. Don’t expect the changes to immediately turn this team around from worst-to-first. However, each of them are steps in the right direction. Let’s take a look at how each player can help you win your fantasy football league.

Quarterbacks

Washington has some pretty young, under-developed talent taking control of the huddle in 2020. Currently led by 2019 first-round selection Dwayne Haskins, Washington made a trade to bring in Kyle Allen from Carolina. Neither Haskins (9 games) nor Allen (13) played a full season in their rookie years. However, both signal-callers were a tale of two halves. For Haskins, things progressed fairly well throughout the season. Allen on the other hand saw things get worse as the season went on. During Haskins’ first five games played, many thought he was the bust of the draft. Haskins threw for only 654 yards, had an adjusted completion percentage of only 65%, and had four more interceptions thrown (6) than touchdowns (2). According to Sam’s Film Room, this stemmed from shoddy footwork that forced an overcompensation of his arm, and his lack of experience was the apparent culprit. As the season went on, though, Haskins made significant strides to fix the issues causing his problems. Haskins finished the season with 15 more fantasy points in his final four games. Haskins had more touchdowns (5), fewer interceptions (1), and increased his completion percentage to 72.2% while throwing for more yards on fewer attempts.

Allen, unfortunately, went in the opposite direction. After winning five of their first six games, the Panthers would lose eight straight to end the year. Poor play from Allen caused the departure of Ron Rivera and ultimately, the loss of his QB job. Haskins is a serious sleeper candidate in 2020. His new Offensive Coordinator has experience coaching big-time QBs such as Cam Newton and Teddy Bridgewater and should be an excellent fit for Haskins. His current ADP is 104 and is the 28th QB taken according to FFPC ADP. Allen will likely play the backup role in helping Haskins learn the terminology and getting comfortable with the playbook. However, if Haskins falters, Washington could move to Allen as they head into #TankforTrevor territory.

Running Backs

Even with the loss of Derrius Guice following a domestic abuse incident, the Washington running back room is a bit crowded. Our own FF_Terminator breaks down the Washington running backs following the Guice departure. Washington now has three players who can hold immediate impact with two other veterans waiting in the wings if any of them falter. 14-year veteran Adrian Peterson currently leads the room, even though rookie Antonio Gibson, sophomore Bryce Love, J.D. McKissic, and Peyton Barber add a little something to the roster. AD: All Day (not AP as the misinformed NFL fan base would have you believe) is entering year 14 and is coming off back-to-back seasons of at least 900 yards. Despite his age, Peterson had the 19th most carries (211) and the 17th most yards (898) in 2019. He had the 8th most breakaway runs (11), the 14th best breakaway run rate (5.2%), and evaded the 11th most tackles (77) with the 2nd best juke rate (33.8%).

Antonio Gibson had less than 80 total touches in college but had more than 1200 yards and 14 touchdowns. Bryce Love is coming off an ACL tear in his senior season at Standford that caused him to miss 2019. However, he gained more than 2,000 yards and scored 19 touchdowns in his collegiate career. With the loss of Guice, Peterson should garner most of the work with Love/Gibson taking on more of the 3rd down/passing game role. Nevertheless, if Peterson begins to show his age, one of these youngsters could see an uptick in touches and value down the stretch. Gibson and Love are great stashes in deeper leagues and could provide free value with ADPs of 172 and 326. You can learn more about Gibson’s pre-draft profile from the thread put together by Phil Pennington Jr. above.

Wide Receivers

The Washington receivers are stacked with upside. From Terry ‘F1’ McLaurin to Steven Sims, Kelvin Harmon, and Antonio Gandy-Golden, Washington has some serious talent. Both McLaurin and Sims burst onto the scene in 2019, taking immediate strongholds of the #1 and #2 receiving positions on the Washington depth chart. During McLaurin’s first five games, the former Buckeye found the end zone five times, gaining at least 100 yards twice with 23 receptions. Over that span, McLaurin finished as the 9th best fantasy receiver with 93.8 PPR points. McLaurin would fail to reach 75 yards or the end zone in any of the next six games. However, in Weeks 14-16, F1 got back to his dominant ways ranking as the WR6 with 16 receptions, 273 yards, and two touchdowns.

Over almost the same span, Steven Sims stamped his way onto the Washington depth chart permanently. From week 14 on, Sims finished as the WR9. Kelvin Harmon had a significant opportunity to lock into the #3 WR spot in this offense; however, he will miss the entire 2020 season with a torn ACL.

Enter rookie Antonio Gandy-Golden and veterans Dontrelle Inman & Cody Latimer. Gandy-Golden didn’t grade well according to The Draft Network, earning only two stars. His route-running and release are both below average skill sets despite his ability to play physical and his above-average ability to snag the ball. He’s going to lack pure NFL athleticism, however he’s an exceptional pass catcher. If he can work on some of the things he lacked in college, Gandy-Golden could snag the #3 WR role in an offense that’s likely to play behind and will have to throw the rock. 

Tight Ends

For years, fantasy players have always held a little extra love for the tight ends in Washington. Jordan Reed was that Evan Engram-type of talent that just couldn’t stay healthy. Despite never playing a full season in his career, Reed caught at least 45 passes in all but one season. Reed is now in San Francisco after passing his physical and signing a 1-year deal with the 49ers. No Washington Tight End caught more than 26 passes last year, with current#1 TE Jeremy Sprinkle pulling in the most. There genuinely are no names on this list that give us high hopes from a fantasy perspective.

Sprinkle doesn’t do anything particularly well, with the 49th best pass blocking ranking according to PFF last year. Other tight ends Logan Thomas and Richard Rogers don’t jump off the page either. As such, the the Washington Football Team decided to go after NFL Hall of Fame wide receiver Randy Moss’ son Thaddeus as an undrafted free agent. Moss isn’t the most dynamic of athletes, however he possesses some pretty decent route running ability, hitting quick stick routes and sitting down in the coverage’s holes. While it’s way too early to say, Moss’ scouting report suggests he can provide some of the similar attributes Jason Witten was able to provide for Dallas for so many years. If Moss can develop his route tree a bit more and learn to create a bit more separation from defenders, he can pair that with an above average catch radius into an excellent career. None of the aforementioned tight ends are particularly exciting to target, but Moss could hold value if he hits on some of the topics discussed. 

Make sure to check out other NFC East Breakdowns including the New York Giants & Dallas Cowboys, and be on the lookout for the Philadelphia Eagles breakdown later this offseason.

Denver Broncos Offseason Breakdown

Brian O'Connell
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Denver Broncos Offseason Breakdown

Gone are the days of the Broncos’ elite and fantasy friendly offense. After years of struggling to find a replacement for Peyton Manning, the Broncos find themselves in an AFC West that’s full of offensive weapons, and an offense of their own full of promising young talent with premium draft capital.

Similar to the haul of wide receivers the division rival Las Vegas Raiders selected in this year’s draft, the Broncos selected two wide receivers in the first two rounds, giving second-year quarterback Drew Lock some shiny new toys to throw to. The other main addition to this offense is Melvin Gordon from the Los Angeles Chargers, who looks to take control of the starting running back role. With a plethora of youthful talent, is this Denver offense worth investing in, or is it set to disappoint?

Offensive Overview

In their second year under head coach Vic Fangio, the Broncos are getting a new offensive coordinator in Pat Shurmur to replace Rich Scangarello, who was fired at the end of last season. The offense can only improve with Pat Shurmur in control, given Denver finished 28th in points for and total yards last season. Shurmur has experienced success developing young QBs, and the quality of the Denver offense and the performance of its talented skill position players rely heavily on how well Shurmur can groom Lock and help him take the next step.

Quarterback

Drew Lock

With his 4-1 record in 5 starts last year, Drew Lock is a hot name in the fantasy football community this offseason. After taking over for Joe Flacco, Lock passed for 1,020 yards, 7 touchdowns, and 3 Interceptions, with a 64.1% completion percentage. With the addition of Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler and a second year with both Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, we can expect Lock to progress statistically. Just how much Lock progresses might depend on the offense that Pat Shurmur installs. It’s reasonable to expect at least a similar stat line as Daniel Jones’ from his 2019 rookie season, as I have Lock projected for 3,400 yards, 21 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions, which puts him as my predicted 20th ranked QB.

Personally, I think the hype is surpassing the realistic expectations of Lock at this point in the offseason. While Lock’s 4-1 record as a starter is promising, some of his advanced passing statistics should temper our expectations. In his 5 starts, Drew Lock had 4.7 completed air yards per completion, which measures the average yards the ball travels past the line of scrimmage prior to being caught per completion. Per Pro Football Reference, this is the lowest of all quarterbacks with more than 150 pass attempts.

Not only did Drew Lock not pass the ball far down the field, he had the 6th lowest average air yards per attempt of qualified quarterbacks. When he did throw it long, he was very bad at it. According to NFLfastR data, Lock had 12.7% completion percentage below expected on throws equal to or greater than 20 yards past the line of scrimmage. Lock has shown that he can throw deep successfully in college, so to truly “unlock” the full potential of the Denver offense, Lock will need to improve on these downfield throws. While I expect Lock to get better at throwing downfield, I imagine we continue to see a similar level on conservative pass selection during the 2020 season as the Broncos continue to lean on their talented defense, limiting Lock’s potential.

Running Back

It’s difficult to predict what the Broncos run/pass splits will be in 2020. The Broncos had the 10th highest run percentage in the NFL last season, and that’s after finishing with a 6-10 record and trailing for most of the season. While Shurmur will most likely push the Broncos to be slightly more pass friendly, I expect the Broncos’ rush percentage to only decrease slightly as Denver should be in more winning situations. Per Rotoworld, Denver only rushed 38% of the time when trailing last year compared to 45% overall. With a similar run/pass split as 2019, there’s plenty of opportunity in the Denver offense for the running backs, but a split in the carries between newcomer Melvin Gordon and Philip Lindsay might limit your ability to trust either of them in your fantasy lineup.

Melvin Gordon

Gordon comes to the Broncos from the AFC West rival Chargers after 5 years where he was consistently a top fantasy RB. Gordon has been a frustrating player for many fantasy managers to have, as he’s only finished one season with 16 games, which also was his only season with over 1,000 yards. Most of Gordon’s past fantasy value has come from his high usage, especially in the passing game. Gordon should see a decrease in both rush attempts and targets this season after leaving the Chargers and checkdown-heavy Philip Rivers. In my most recent projections, I see Gordon getting over 200 touches for the 6th consecutive season, but his split and reduction in pass game work leads him to scoring around 13.1 points per game in PPR scoring and 10.5 points per game in non-PPR.

Phillip Lindsay

Even though he has more 1,000 rushing-yard seasons than Melvin Gordon, Lindsay will most likely see a smaller percent of the rushing share for the first time in his career. That said, I believe the split will be more equal than what we saw for the Broncos last season, where Lindsay had 55% of the carries and Royce Freeman had 32%. Lindsay’s high number of targets, combined with the possibility that Melvin Gordon won’t be able to hold up for a full season, makes Lindsay an interesting target for fantasy teams that need running back help in the 8th and 9th rounds. I currently have Lindsay projected for 10 points per game in PPR, 7.8 in non-PPR, with plenty of upside if Gordon misses any time.

Receivers

As mentioned above, I believe with Pat Shurmur taking control of the offense we’ll see a slight increase in pass attempts in the Denver Broncos offense. The Broncos finished 27th in the NFL in pass attempts last season with 504. That number should increase this season, which could lead to enough volume for a successful fantasy season for several of Denver’s receivers.

Courtland Sutton

Courtland Sutton enters his third season with the Broncos as the alpha receiver in this offense. In his 5 games with Lock last season, Sutton averaged 8 targets per game. While that number will most likely decrease slightly with the new additions at wide receiver, I expect Sutton to remain Denver’s most targeted wide receiver by a healthy margin. I have him projected for just over 100 targets this season, which places him comfortably as a WR2. There’s some upside to that projection with the hope that Pat Shurmur will make this offense more pass heavy. Sutton is a prime medium- to high-floor target in the 4th or 5th round of drafts.

Jerry Jeudy

The first-round pick for the Broncos adds some much-needed talent in the wide receiver group after Emmanuel Sanders left midseason last year. Jeudy was many analyst’s top wide receiver in this year’s draft, and he could immediately see enough targets to make him relevant, but should be considered more of a dynasty buy than a redraft buy.

K.J. Hamler

K.J. Hamler seems to be the forgotten Broncos wide receiver this season. Drafted in the second round, his selection underlines how badly Denver needed talent at the wide receiver position. The 10th rookie receiver selected, (before more discussed players like Denzel Mims and Chase Claypool) K.J. Hamler will fight with DaeSean Hamilton and Tim Patrick for the #3 WR position on the team. Although he should most likely end the season as the 3rd wide receiver on the depth chart, Hamler doesn’t look like he’ll see enough opportunity to be useful in redraft. In dynasty, he’s a screaming buy and stash worth inquiring about in your leagues.

Noah Fant

A year removed from being selected 20th overall in the 2019 draft, Noah Fant is an athletic monster (Just look at his mind-boggling athletic profile from PlayerProfiler.com below!) that’s looking to build upon a productive rookie season. He’ll be battling with Jeudy to be Drew Lock’s #2 receiver behind Sutton, a competition I see Fant winning.

Denver Broncos
Noah Fant’s Player Profiler Metrics

Fant is a YAC monster that led the team last season with 8.3 yards after completion per reception. Fant’s yards after catch prowess is important for him to be fantasy relevant, as he had the lowest average depth of target for wide receivers and tight ends with more than 20 targets last season. Having the advantage of a full year with Drew Lock and head coach Vic Fangio over the highly drafted rookie wide receivers, Fant is a great late round tight end target that’s full of upside.

Review and Fantasy Outlook

With so much youth, it’s hard to predict how this offense and its players will produce this season without most of training camp and no preseason games. While Lock figures to stay conservative with his pass selection, improving his passing 20+ yards downfield combined with slightly higher volume in the pass game will most likely lead to him being a successful weekly streamer, but not an every-week starter. The split between Gordon and Lindsay will limit both of their upsides, but if you had to force me to take one, I would lean Lindsay at his current ADP considering Gordon might miss a few games. The talent the Broncos have in their receiving corps seemed to be priced accordingly, and they could easily beat their ADPs, with Sutton presenting a safe floor and medium/high ceiling if Lock keeps on progressing and K.J. Hamler as a massive buy in dynasty leagues. Finally, I am all in on Fant as a possible breakout tight end this season, as he has a solid floor that will have weekly upside based on his ability to create after the catch.

Baltimore Ravens 2020 Offseason Breakdown

Marc Mathyk
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Baltimore Ravens 2020 Offseason Breakdown

The Baltimore Ravens were one of the bigger surprises of 2019. Many had high hopes for sophomore quarterback Lamar Jackson, but no one predicted him to be the leagues’ best quarterback and MVP. The Ravens had the best regular season in the league at 14-2. Despite a reality check in the playoffs when they were upset by the Tennessee Titans, the Ravens could not have asked for a better year.

Lamar’s Invincible 2019 Season

Lamar Jackson was by far the most efficient quarterback last season. He only had 401 passing attempts, but had the most touchdown passes. His 36 touchdowns compared to only six interceptions translates to a remarkable 6:1 TD/INT ratio. One would assume that Jackson’s impressive 66.1% passing percentage would reflect that of a cautious quarterback. This was not the case. In fact, his 7.8 yards per attempt put him in the league’s top ten. Not bad for a player many predicted would end up being a wide receiver.

As good as Jackson was as a passer, he really separated himself from the rest of the pack with his rushing ability. In only 15 games, Jackson had 1,206 yards, averaging 6.9 yards per carry and leading the league in quarterback rushing touchdowns with seven. To put things into perspective, Jackson’s 1,206 yards would have made him the sixth-best running back in 2019. More importantly, he was able to shatter Michael Vick’s quarterback rushing record of 1,039 yards.

In fantasy, Jackson easily had the most points out of anyone. No matter which site or format, he was around 60-70 points ahead of second place Christian McCaffrey. Anything is possible in the NFL, but to assume that Jackson will equal or improve upon his 2019 performance would be naively optimistic. Passer rating is calculated using a player’s passing attempts, completions, yards, touchdowns, and interceptions. Jackson’s 113.3 passer rating in 2019 is the 11th best of all time.

Facing Inevitable Regression

One thing’s for certain: if the Ravens’ defense is as good as it was in 2019, then Jackson’s volume will most likely not increase. In their two regular season losses, Jackson had 43 and 34 passing attempts. He averaged only 21.6 attempts in his 14 wins. Jackson threw 59 times in their only playoff game. In total, Jackson averaged 45.3 attempts when his team lost. It’s also important to note that he threw 33 touchdowns and three interceptions when Baltimore won. When they lost, he threw three touchdowns and three interceptions. Big difference.

If the Ravens get rattled, so does Jackson. If Baltimore’s defense doesn’t play as well as they did in 2019, then more pressure will be placed on Jackson’s shoulders. With that pressure comes inefficiency and mistakes. He might be a great quarterback, but unlike Patrick Mahomes, Jackson hasn’t proven he has the ability to overcome adversity. In fact, Baltimore never had to rally from any second half deficit to win. In all three of their losses, Baltimore was trailing at half time.

If Baltimore doesn’t get off to a hot start and trails, Jackson’s passing volume will increase, which might not be a good thing. It would be surprising if Jackson could replicate his efficiency level coming from behind. Even though Jackson is the best rushing quarterback of all time, he averaged only 56 rushing yards in regular season losses, compared to averaging 84 rushing yards when they won. One would also have to assume that opposing teams will be more prepared for Jackson in 2020.

Will Mark Andrews Assert Himself as the TE3?

Ravens
Mark Andrews is pumped for 2020.

Oftentimes, a player will generate massive hype that will then cool down later. Some might even start off slow, then gain momentum as the season is about to start. Mark Andrews, however, has received praise by almost everyone since the beginning of the offseason, without any signs of said hype waning.

According to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, Andrews is being viewed as the league’s TE3, behind Travis Kelce and George Kittle. Kelce has led the league in tight end fantasy scoring for three consecutive seasons. Kittle is entering 2020 after establishing himself as the league’s second-highest scoring tight end. Andrews was fifth in 2019 as a sophomore. This was a giant leap from his rookie season in which he was 17th.

Almost everyone believes Andrews will ascend even further in 2020. According to Fantasy Football Calculator, Andrews is being drafted in the middle of the fourth round in redraft. This is about five spots ahead of Zach Ertz and a full round ahead of Darren Waller, both of which finished ahead of Andrews last year along with Kelce and Kittle.

Usurping Ertz and Waller to be TE3 for Andrews isn’t out of the equation. Based on FantasyPros 2019 fantasy points, Andrews was only eight points behind Ertz and 14 behind Waller, with Waller playing an extra game. With Hayden Hurst out of the picture an no direct replacement, it seems that Mark Andrews is destined to live up to his offseason expectations.

TE3, But Fewer Fantasy Points?

It’s very possible that Mark Andrews climbs up the tight end ranks and finishes in the top three with fewer fantasy points than he did last year. But how?

Baltimore’s offense in 2019 was atypical. There were no major wide receivers of consequence. Mark Andrews was Lamar Jackson’s most targeted receiver in 2019 with 98 targets. Rookie Marquise Brown was a distant second with 71 and Willie Snead was further back with 46. To put this into perspective, Michael Thomas and DeAndre Hopkins had more targets than Andrews and Brown combined. Many talk about the Seattle Seahawks’ run-first approach, but Baltimore ran the most run plays in 2019. That’s why the Baltimore tight end core ranked last in Team Pass Plays out of the 42 tight ends who caught 20 or more passes in 2019.

Many have Andrews as being the TE3 in 2020, but according to most statistics gathered from the 2019 season, he simply isn’t there yet. He was only seventh among tight ends in targets per game with 6.5 and was 11th in receptions per game with 4.3. Andrews also lacks the Yards After Catch (YAC) appeal. He was ranked 30th out of 42, only gaining on average 2.6 yards after the catch. This might have something to do with his league-leading 1.33 Deep Targets per game, but his lack of YAC is concerning.

Volume >>> Touchdown Dependency

What really helped Andrews achieve 13.8 fantasy points per game (T-5th) were his touchdowns. He had 10, which led the league. That was four more than Kelce, Ertz, and Hooper; five more than Kittle and Henry; seven more than Waller, Engram, and Higbee. Touchdowns aren’t reliable stats anyone can predict or expect to replicate. Targets and receptions are more consistent indicators – two indicators from 2019 that do not favor Andrew’s rise in 2020.

It would be a large leap of faith for him to become what most expect. He could still end up as the TE3 due to the parity at the position, but in the process he might not return value.

More Means Less

With most effective systems, there is a saying “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” The Ravens will continue to employ a similar run/pass distribution as long as game script coincides with their plan. Even if it doesn’t, Jackson will most likely be less efficient and effective as mentioned previously. For argument’s sake, let’s say that Jackson will be forced to throw a bit more in 2020. Projecting him for 450 attempts seems fair. That’s about three more per game.

When Jackson had to throw the ball more during the three games Baltimore was behind, he didn’t target Andrews significantly more than he did when they were winning. In fact, Andrews averaged 7.3 targets in losses compared to 6.4 in wins. Marquise Brown, however, saw a huge difference. He averaged 5 during wins but averaged 9 when Baltimore was playing from behind. This may be a small sample size of three games, but it does show that when Jackson is behind, he tends to look to his wide receivers more.

Sum Greater Than Its Parts

Speaking of wide receivers, Baltimore has sneakily been drafting them heavily in the past two rookie drafts. Last year, it was Brown and Miles Boykin, a player who did very little but was still a third round pick who brings size and freak athleticism to the table. In 2020, they drafted a couple of later targets, Devin Duvernay and James Proche. Duvernay is interesting because he was used mostly in the slot at Texas, but comes with 4.39 speed. Proche is a typical slot receiver who was a steal in the sixth round. He had 301 college receptions, which is the 16th most of all time. They still have Willie Snead, the forgotten man, who was clearly the team’s third option in 2019. He had 46 receptions and five touchdowns.

Predicting who will emerge as the two “other wide receivers” next to Brown is not clear. One would assume that it would be Boykin playing outside with Snead in the slot,but it wouldn’t be surprising if Duvernay or even Proche end up starting by mid-season. In any case, none of them are worth drafting in redraft, but all of them are worthy dynasty stashes with Snead being the “least desirable” at 27 years old. As a group, however, look at them as a greater sum than its parts.

Hooray For Hollywood?

Marquise “Hollywood” Brown is probably the most intriguing and undervalued receiver on the Ravens this season. He’s currently WR32 in PPR, which isn’t incredible value, but it would not be surprising if he ends up a top-24 receiver. If the extra weight he’s put on hasn’t affected his speed greatly, then Brown could be a good buy. He should be the number one target on the team on passing downs, which in itself means he will be the receiver to own in Baltimore.

Ingram Is Still The Running Back to Draft

As for running backs, Mark Ingram continues to be the best play and is currently viewed as the RB23. Last year, he was fantasy RB11 in PPR scoring. Many are enamored by second-round rookie J.K. Dobbins, but don’t think for a second that Ingram is no longer the guy. If Ingram gets hurt, don’t sleep on Gus Edwards as the next man up initially. He’s done nothing in the past to prove he isn’t capable of being the main two-down back. It will be interesting to see how Justice Hill is utilized if at all. The former third-round athletic phenom didn’t set the world on fire in 2019, but to be fair he was only used sporadically.

Predicting Target Distribution Breakdown

Last year, Lamar Jackson had 401 out of a teams’ 440 total pass attempts; that target distribution broke down like this:

  • Mark Andrews: 98
  • Marquise Brown: 71
  • Willie Snead: 46
  • Nick Boyle: 43
  • Hayden Hurst: 39
  • Seth Roberts: 35
  • Mark Ingram: 29
  • Miles Boykin: 22
  • Justice Hill: 15
  • Patrick Ricard: 11
  • Others: 15

Due to more negative game script, we’ll give the team a total of 500 attempts, with Jackson getting 450 as promised. This is what the target distribution should look like:

  • Marquise Brown: 115 targets, 63, receptions, 934 yards, 7 TDs
  • Mark Andrews: 110 targets, 76 receptions, 782 yards, 6 TDs
  • Willie Snead: 55 targets, 39 receptions, 424 yards, 2 TDs
  • Nick Boyle: 50 targets, 36 receptions, 315 yards, 3 TDs
  • Miles Boykin: 45 targets, 26 receptions, 346 yards, 3 TDs
  • Mark Ingram: 35 targets, 27 receptions, 265 yards, 3 TDs
  • Devin Duvernay: 35 targets, 21 receptions, 279 yards, 3 TDs
  • Other RB targets: 35 targets, 25 receptions, 221 yards, 1 TDs
  • Other: 20 targets, 11 receptions, 136 yards, 0 TDs

Marquise Brown will lead in every category and progress nicely as a sophomore “big play” receiver. He still won’t eclipse 1000 yards however due to volume that is largely spread out. Andrews will take a small step back. With Hurst gone and more eligible decent options at wide receiver, he’ll be less of a slot presence and used more often as a traditional tight end. Snead will begin the year as the main slot receiver, but as time goes on, he’ll start to lose snaps to Duvernay. Boykin takes a nominal step in year two, but does not fully exert himself.

Apart from Brown and Andrews, all of the other receivers get action, but cannibalize each other in terms of fantasy. Ingram is still the main back, but Dobbins starts getting more action near the end of the season, alluding to the possibility that he might be the main focus in 2021. Edwards and Hill remain just change-of-pace, even if Edwards continues to perform adequately and Hill improves on his efficiency.

Ravens
“Big Truss. Woo woo.” -Mark Ingram

Conclusion

Fading two of the most revered players on one of the most exciting teams seems contrarian, but do not be fooled into thinking that the Ravens will dominate like they did in 2019. They’ll be good, but won’t run away with the division.

Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews exceeded their value in 2019 due to supreme efficiency. Therefore, fade Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews even if the rest of the fantasy football community is saying the opposite. Marquise Brown has upside potential and should see the biggest uptick in volume. However, the most intriguing player to have on your team for 2019 might be 30-year old Mark Ingram. This might be his last hurrah as both a starter and as a Raven. Ageism is real, even in redraft. In my opinion Ingram is a screaming value that could help you quietly win your leagues.

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