The Los Angeles Chargers’ offseason wasn’t just about replacing franchise stalwart Philip Rivers. They also managed to extend Joey Bosa, draft a future franchise quarterback, and re-tool their offensive line.
Quarterback
The Chargers began 2019 with fringe Super Bowl aspirations, following a 12-4 season in which they returned most everyone. But Philip Rivers had a dreadful campaign. The gunslinger tossed twenty interceptions and suffered a career-low touchdown percentage. The Chargers slumped to 5-11, and most everyone knew we’d seen Rivers in powder blue for the final time.
For most franchises, losing an established quarterback would be cause for a roster makeover, but the Chargers are hoping to rebuild on the fly behind quarterback Tyrod Taylor. And while Taylor isn’t as talented as his predecessor, there are some things he does better. Namely, limiting turnovers and the ability to make plays with his legs.
Between 2015 and 2016, while in Buffalo, (where Chargers Head Coach Anthony Lynn had multiple coaching roles at the time) Taylor threw for a combined 6,058 yards and 37 touchdowns against just 12 interceptions. He tacked on another 1,148 yards and 10 touchdowns with his legs. Taylor isn’t likely to reinvent himself into a must-have fantasy add, but the situation he finds himself in could lead to some fantasy value, especially if he runs the ball consistently.
The Chargers spent the No.6 overall pick in this year’s NFL draft on Oregon product Justin Herbert. While he is clearly the long term solution at QB, he’s expected to sit the year behind Taylor.
Running Back
Philip Rivers wasn’t the only Charger allowed to hit free agency this offseason. Melvin Gordon took his 47 touchdowns to the mile-high air of division rival Denver, leaving the backfield in the seemingly capable hands of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson. While Gordon feuded with ownership in an ill-fated holdout, Ekeler got off to a hot start in 2019. A start that fueled a full-blown breakout. The Western Colorado product parlayed his 1,550 scrimmage yards and 92 receptions into a 24.5 million dollar contract extension, and watched as the Bolts said goodbye to his former backfield mate.
While capable, it may be difficult for Ekeler to repeat 2019. According to Pro Football Focus, QB Philip Rivers checked the ball down on 8% of his throws. This was three percent higher than the league average. In contrast, expected starter Tyrod Taylor checks the ball down on just 3.3% of his career passing attempts, electing instead to make plays with his legs. There’s also the question of just how much Ekeler will carry the ball. The team added Joshua Kelly in the draft. During the season’s final month, Justin Jackson accounted for 28% of the club’s rush attempts while averaging a staggering 7.8 yards per carry.
Wide Receiver
Wide receiver is perhaps the strongest position group on the team, and superstar Keenan Allen is no doubt the best of the bunch. The talented WR has played in all 48 games the last three years, freeing himself from the injury bug moniker that plagued the first part of his career. While it may take time to build rapport with his new QB, I expect business as usual for Allen, who is one of the best route runners in the league. Able to create separation at will, Allen has averaged 101 receptions and 1,262 yards the last three years.
His running mate, Mike Williams, finally remained relatively healthy in 2019 and seemed to find his footing. As the team’s big play threat, he averaged a league-best 20.4 YPC and eclipsed 1,000 yards for the first time. Oddly enough, it was the red zone where the big-bodied wideout struggled. Williams crossed the goal line just twice all year. It will be interesting to see just how much the Chargers try and push the ball with Taylor under center. The rookie Justin Herbert would be a much better fit for Williams.
Offensive Line
The offseason shuffle continued along the offensive line. Gone is Russell Okung. He was traded to the Carolina Panthers in exchange for five-time Pro Bowl guard Trai Turner. The front office also shored up the tackle spot by signing coveted free agent Bryan Bulaga. Center Mike Pouncey has also been cleared to return to action. The most important thing with this group is continuity. With no offseason and a truncated camp, it’s imperative that they gel quickly.
As mentioned earlier, the Chargers and standout defensive end Joey Bosa reached an agreement on an extension that not only keeps him in LA for the next several years, but also makes him the highest paid defensive player in the league. The deal also includes a record number of guaranteed money for a defensive player.
With the Chargers preparing to move into the spectacle that is SoFi stadium, they do so clearly looking to reinvent themselves. With a new franchise quarterback and a re-tooled offensive line, all they need now are some fans to appreciate it.
Preparation goes beyond the rankings. In a year of social distancing, fantasy football continues to be the tie that binds. It binds old friends and new acquaintances alike. And while our friends reap the rewards of our preparation, we analysts argue over the next breakout. This year, there has been no more hotly-contested topic than the late round tight end. But while everyone is clamoring to be first to the next big thing (I’m looking at you Blake Jarwin), I want to talk about someone who has done it before, and might very well do it again: Jack Doyle.
Trading in his powder blue for something a little more dark, quarterback Philip Rivers packed his bags and headed east. Gone with him are his trademark bolo tie and, most importantly, his affinity for throwing to the tight end. From 2004 to 2019, Rivers targeted his tight end an average of 123 times a season, including a spike of 141 while Frank Reich helmed the offense. If that’s not enough, there have been SIX different times a tight end led the Chargers in targets.
Enter Jack Doyle. While sounding like a hero from the latest Tom Clancy novel, Jack Doyle has already rescued his quarterback in the past with an 80-690-4 line. A line that he parlayed into a Pro Bowl invitation. And while he’s not a flashy player, his knowledge of the position and general football acumen provide him a safe floor.
It’s clear that Doyle knows how to set routes up and beat defenders with their own leverage. Passes to him the previous two seasons have generated a 94.95 QB rating. His pre-snap understanding of coverage is apparent in the way he’s able to find soft spots in zones. And although he’s not known for his YAC ability, the Western Kentucky product is productive after the catch. 32 of his 43 receptions went for either a touchdown or a first down.
Jax Falcone, aka @DynoGameTheory, breaks down each team in his NFC schedule preview, giving you the best Over/Under bets to make on team win totals for 2020.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints: 11-5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 9-7 Atlanta Falcons: 8-8 Carolina Panthers: 6-10
Brees and the Saints are a model of consistency.
The New Orleans Saints with Drew Brees at Quarterback are perennially a winner. I don’t see any reason why 2020 won’t be more of the same. They return their version of the triplets (Brees, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara), and add Emanuel Sanders to bolster their weapons. They also drafted a surefire tight end prospect in Adam Trautman to add depth and insurance to a group led by Jared Cook (33 years old). The Saints should be a great team this year, no doubt. Their Vegas win total is 10, so smash the Over, right!? Not so fast… check out this finishing stretch for them in Weeks 9 through 17: at Buccaneers, vs 49ers, vs Falcons, at Broncos, at Falcons, at Eagles, vs Chiefs, vs Vikings, at Panthers. Woof!! I think the Saints a good team, but I would be cautious with their 10 win over/under. It looks like a smash on paper, but there will be attrition this season, and we need to be aware. If I’m betting, I am taking the over, but it may not be as easy as it looks.
The Bet: Over/Under 10 – Stay Away/OVER
Has there been a more intriguing team this offseason than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?! They won 7 games last season with an offense that turned the ball over 41 times and gave up 7 defensive scores. Those numbers are sure to regress, as Tom Brady has averaged 8 INTs per season over his last 8 seasons in the league. Brady has had 14 pick 6’s in 20 years; Jameis had 7 in 2019. This will be a different team for sure. The defense was stout last year, and it should improve for 2020 with additions (and key subtractions) in the secondary. They have copious weapons and solid coaching. Everything has the arrow pointing up. But what does that mean for a win total? Vegas has them at 9.5, and while I project them at 9 wins here, I still wouldn’t want to be holding an ‘under-bet card’ betting against the GOAT. A lot could go wrong and keep them at 9 or less, but if everything goes right, this could be a 12-win team. For that reason, I am staying away from this bet, as it’s too tricky to handicap.
The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – Stay Away
The Atlanta Falcons led the NFL in pass attempts by a wide margin, as they had 684 attempts in 2019. The Falcons under-achieved in 2019 by only posting 7 wins. They did finish strong however, posting a 6-2 record in their final 8 games, including road wins in New Orleans and San Francisco. While I think they will be good in 2020, I still think they’ll have a tough time getting over .500. Their first two games are vs Seahawks and at Cowboys, but their final 7 games is where I am especially concerned. After their bye, the Falcons finish: at Saints, Raiders, Saints, at Chargers, Bucs, at Chiefs, at Bucs. I like this Falcons team and I think they can get hot and make a run, and if I had to, I would bet the Over, but I am more inclined to stay away here.
The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – Stay Away/OVER
No team has my attention more than this Panthers team. Their ownership with David Tepper and the hires of Matt Rhule and Joe Brady are very, very intriguing. I think they have the right idea in terms of team-building and philosophy. We’ll see how resolute they can be during trying times. I think they will have trouble winning games again this season. The defense is not good, at best, and it may be awful. The offense is led by Mr. Efficiency Teddy Bridgewater, but he is far from prolific, and they will need to score points in order to remain competitive in a division with Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Matt Ryan. Outside of their divisional games, they play the AFC West, the NFC North, the Cardinals, and the Washington Football Team. Not too bad. The Under doesn’t seem like a viable bet, and the Over will be a sweat, but if pushed, that’s the way I’d go.
The Bet: Over/Under 5.5 – Stay Away/OVER
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings: 9-7 Green Bay Packers: 9-7 Detroit Lions: 6-10 Chicago Bears: 5-11
Mike Zimmer after every win when running the ball and playing good defense.
The Vikings have been knocking on the door seemingly every season since Mike Zimmer has taken over as head coach. Side note, can you believe Zimmer has been the Vikings Head Coach since 2014!!?? Gary Kubiak comes in as the Offensive Coordinator, and his teams are always in the top half of the league in rush attempts. This team will be run-first again in 2020. They also addressed some key defensive needs this offseason by drafting cornerback Jeff Gladney, and scooped up tackle Ezra Cleveland just after the Rams inexplicably passed on him for a 24 year old slot receiver. Needless to say, I really like this team and think they are going to win this division. Why only 9 wins then? Check out how their season starts from Week 1 through Week 6, before their much-needed Week 7 bye: Packers, at Colts, Titans, at Texans, at Seahawks, Falcons. A 2-4 or 3-3 start is quite realistic. It doesn’t get too much easier for them in the second half either. Their Win Total Line is right at 9 games, which is where I had them. Definition of a stay away. I think I’d rather bet them to win the division than to bet their win total. At least you can get some better odds there.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – Stay Away
You could argue that the Green Bay Packers were the ‘luckiest’ team in the league last year. They had an expected win total of 9.7 and ended up 13-3. They were 9-1 in one-score games last year. A lot of that will regress. The Packers also went out and completely whiffed the draft. They added backup skill position players with all of their high-leverage picks. Yikes. It will be Aaron Rodgers’ greatness that will carry them in 2020, and I’m not sure how much passion he has for that considering the Jordan Love draft pick. He admitted that he was expecting one of the wide receivers with that pick,and immediately poured himself a big glass of tequila when the Pack drafted Love. Not great.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – Stay Away
In 2019, the Lions lost their star QB after he was off to an incredible start – He was on a pace for 5,000 yards and 40 TD passes, as well as a .500 record. After he went down, the Lions scored more than 20 points only once. They had scored more than 20 in 7 of 8 games with Stafford. Vegas has the Lions win total at 6.5, and that’s an excellent number, as I have them at 6 or 7 wins. Their schedule seems pretty fair. They have some tough games, but they have some very winnable games mixed in throughout the year. The should hover around .500 all year. I’d love to bet the over, but the coaching doesn’t inspire any confidence, so I am inclined to stay away.
The Bet: Over/Under 6.5 – Stay Away
My win total projection here was the furthest from the Vegas line (8.5 wins), and I was surprised to learn that you can get juice on the Under (+130). I am slamming the Under. The division is challenging and they play the AFC South and the NFC South in addition to the Giants and Rams. Every Bears fan laments the coaching, and while I don’t think the front office or the coaching staff are above average, the 2019 Bears actually over-achieved their expected win total of 7.4 and finished with 8. I would be shocked if this Bears team got to 9 wins. Give me the UNDER and it’s the bet I feel best about on the entire board.
The Bet: Over/Under 8.5 – UNDER
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: 10-6 Philadelphia Eagles: 10-6 New York Giants: 5-11 Washington Football Team: 5-11
CeeDee Lamb, the newest addition to an already electric Cowboys offense.
The Dallas Cowboys and their fans will no longer have The Clapper to blame for their disappointing finishes. In 2019, the Cowboys had 10.7 expected wins and ended up with only 8 wins, one of the worst ratios in the league. The Cowboys a ton of talent on both sides of the ball, and add a luxury pick with CeeDee Lamb on the offensive side of the ball. They are going to move the ball and score points, and they even have a tremendous backup quarterback in Andy Dalton, so their win total bet is insulated against a QB injury. The defense is good and shouldn’t be a liability for them. The schedule includes the AFC North and the NFC West (two tough divisions), but they also get 2 each vs the Giants and the Washington Football Team. The Cowboys two extra games are the Falcons and the Vikings. The schedule isn’t easy, but I really like them to be able to get to 10 wins.
The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – OVER/Stay Away
The Philadelphia Eagles were my pick to go to the Super Bowl in 2019, and the wheels really fell off. Their defense was above average in terms of personnel, but they had a glaring weakness at cornerback. The added Darius Slay this offseason to bolster a unit that should be a strength in 2020. The offense should be effective again in 2020, however they still have some major questions at the wide receiver position. They drafted Jalen Reagor, a guy I absolutely love, but with Alshon Jeffery on the PUP (and washed), DeSean Jackson being 33 years old, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside being a huge disappointment, a lot is riding on Reagor to contribute right away. I think he can, but there is a question there. The Eagles have the same tough schedule as the Cowboys with their two extra games being the Saints and the Packers. It will be tough for the Eagles to get to 10 wins, but they have the talent to do so.
The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – Stay Away/OVER
The New York Giants and Daniel Jones made us all look like fools for questioning their reach pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. For me however, the jury is still out. Jones was a turnover machine, and he sometimes looked lost in the pocket. On the bright side, his arm looked lively and he was able to deliver passes down the field, which is what it takes to win at the highest level in this league. With Saquon in the backfield, opponents will always have to pay attention to the running game and passes to the running back. That creates space elsewhere. The Giants appear to have a pretty brutal schedule, as they start with Steelers, at Bears, 49ers, at Rams, at Cowboys, Washington Football Team, at Eagles, Bucs, at Washington Football Team, Eagles, all before their bye week. Other than the games against Washington, they are likely to be underdogs in every game. If you’re a Giants fan, 4-6 would be a huge victory in those 10 games. after the bye, they get a winnable game against the Bengals (on the road though) and then finish at Seahawks, Cards, Browns, at Ravens, Cowboys. My goodness. With an Over/Under of 6.5, they need to get to 7 wins in order to take your money on an Under bet. Sign me up.
The Bet: Over/Under 6.5 – UNDER
The Washington Dysfunctions, or I’m sorry… the Washington Football Team. Are you fucking kidding me!!?? Could there be a more dysfunctional team heading into the start of a football season during the auspice of a pandemic?? The only thing they have going for them is the steadying hand of Ron Rivera. That’s not enough to change my opinion of this team. This mess of a team has to start the season with the Eagles and then go on the road to face the Cardinals and Browns. Follow that up with the Ravens and Rams. Divisional games at Giants, and then they host the Cowboys. Honestly, if they are 2-5 I’ll be impressed. I’m thinking more like 1-6 in those first 7.After their bye week, if you have the Under, you can sweat these games, as they have the Giants, Lions, and Bengals (2 of 3 at home). They better fare well in that stretch, because this is really their finishing schedule – at Cowboys, at Steelers, at 49ers, Seahawks, Panthers, at Eagles. I have them at 5 wins, and that may be a bit aggressive. Take the under and don’t look back. This team has to get to 6 wins to hurt you.
The Bet: Over/Under 5.5 – UNDER
NFC West
San Francisco 49ers: 11-5 Seattle Seahawks: 10-6 Arizona Cardinals: 8-8 Los Angeles Rams: 7-9
Brandon Aiyuk will need to make a big difference quick for the 49ers.
The 49ers are coming off a trip to the Super Bowl and missed being SB Champs by the thinnest of margins. The existence of Super-Human Mahomes is the only thing that could stop them. Now they return for 2020 in great shape – they replace DeForest Buckner with rookie Javon Kinlaw who is an absolute beast. They add wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk, and it turns out to be the perfect pick in hindsight, with the subsequent injury to Deebo Samuel. Their schedule is tough, as they play in the best division in the NFL top to bottom. That means 6 of their games are against the Seahawks, Rams, and Cardinals. They get the AFC East, which isn’t too bad, as the Pats and Bills aren’t elite and the Dolphins and Jets should be sure wins. Their NFC draw, the NFC East, also has a couple of cupcakes (Giants and Washington), but that also means tough games against the Eagles and Cowboys. Their two extra games are tough, as they get the Saints and Packers. Overall, it’s a tough schedule, and it will be difficult for them to get to 11 wins to pay the Over. At 10.5, there is no way I could bet the Under though. So this is a stay away or an Over bet from my perspective.
The Bet: Over/Under 10.5 – OVER/Stay Away
The Seattle Seahawks are All-In!! They moved two first round picks and more in order to land superstar safety Jamal Adams. Adams is the prototype of the player that’s a key component to the Pete Carroll defensive system. The Seahawks were a bottom defense last season in almost every single category, except turnovers, which are not very sticky from year to year. So, there is actually some regression expected. Enter Jamal Adams with the hopes of stabilizing the D and giving this team a shot in the postseason. The Seahawks schedule is pretty difficult, as they open up at Falcons, Patriots, Cowboys. Tough way to start, considering they still have all 6 division games remaining. But in typical Seahawk fashion, they will finish strong. They get an amazing stretch run, starting in Week 13: Giants, Jets, at Washington Football Team, Rams. Week 17 may be for the division as they go to San Francisco to finish it off. In a pandemic season, bet on the infrastructure, and take Seahawks Over 9 wins. Only 8 wins or less hurts you. In Russell we Trust.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – OVER
The Arizona Cardinals are everyone’s darlings this year, and rightfully so. Kyler Murray had impressive stats in 2019 and puts himself on a short list in terms of what he accomplished in his rookie season. If you put on the film, it’s even more impressive, as he is able to make throws that very few humans ever could make. He is Good. The defense is still an issue, as they had a hard time stopping the run and the pass. They were second worst in the NFL with 6.0 yards per play surrendered. In order to get to .500, they will need to be better on that side of the ball. They made key investments on that side of the ball, drafting Mr. Everything Isiah Simmons to play LB/S/DE and wreak havoc all over the field. They also drafted two solid DL prospects in the 4th round. If they can slow down opposing offenses, they should be much more competitive in 2020. It’s very reasonable to expect Kyler to take another step forward, especially with the addition of Stud wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. Vegas has the Cards win total at 7.5, and I have been going back and forth on the Cards at 7 or 8 wins in 2020, so for me, they are a Stay Away. But they won’t be a stay away for me on Sunday afternoons, as I will be watching them closely.
The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – Stay Away
The Rams roster and cap situation has been mismanaged severely over the last few seasons and it may come to roost this year. They chose to draft 24 year-old slot receiver Van Jefferson over a solid OT prospect Ezra Cleveland (who was drafted with the very next pick). Ignoring the offensive line is a major concern, because of the ripple effect it has had and will continue to have. Jared Goff has some of the most drastic ‘pressure/no pressure’ splits in the entire NFL. He’s not a very good ‘off-script’ QB at all. At least they drafted a stud running back who is used to having no one block for him, but still… Their schedule is tough, as the division is competitive, and they open Weeks 1-3 with Cowboys, at Eagles, at Bills. The Rams will be lucky if they can win any of those games. I have them at 7 wins this year, and Vegas has them at 9. I’m not afraid of this team winning 10 games to beat me, so I am slamming the UNDER!!! 9 is a push and 10 sounds like a pipe dream.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – UNDER
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Jax Falcone, aka @DynoGameTheory, breaks down each team in his AFC schedule preview, giving you the best Over/Under bets to make on team win totals for 2020.
Derrick Henry is the engine that makes the Titans’ offense run, and they have a great schedule in 2020.
The Tennessee Titans have a great team and a relatively soft schedule. After their Week 7 bye, the Titans get – at Bengals, Bears, Colts, at Ravens, at Colts, Browns, at Jaguars, Lions. Obviously that Ravens game is a tough one, but every other game is very winnable for them in that stretch. I have the Bengals, Bears, Lions, and Jags all in the bottom 10 teams in the league. They should be able to go 5-3 or even 6-2 during this stretch. The Titans open up the season at Denver and at home against the Jags. If they can win those first two games, it will really put them in the driver’s seat for a playoff spot. The last game of the season is on the road against the Houston Texans, and that game could be a virtual playoff game. If the Titans can take care of business against the soft parts of their schedule, it may be meaningless.
The Bet: Over/Under 8.5 – OVER
The Colts come into the season with a very underrated defense, and if Rivers can play a little less YOLO-ball and a bit more game-control, the Colts have a shot to win 11 or 12 games this year. We will know right away with the Colts as their early schedule is the soft part of their schedule. In the first 8 weeks of the season, the Colts get at Jags, Vikings, Jets, at Bears, at Browns, Bengals, Bye, and at Lions. The second half is much tougher, so the Colts will need to be 5-2 after that Lions game in Week 8 to have a shot at the division. After that Lions game, the Colts get the Ravens, Packers, and Titans (twice). In addition, they will have a Week 16 game on December 27th in the Pittsburgh cold. The Colts need to be the hare and jump out early in 2020, or it will be difficult for them to make the playoffs despite their promising outlook.
The Bet: Over/Under 8.5 – OVER
I like the Houston Texans team, but their schedule is almost unfair. If they get to 8-8, that’s an accomplishment. Check this out: They start at Chiefs, Ravens, at Steelers, Vikings, Jags, at Titans, Packers. They could easily be 2-5 to start. They will likely be favored in only that Jags game. Yikes. The second half softens, obviously because it couldn’t get tougher. But still, two games vs The Colts, at the Browns, and vs the Patriots, as well as that Week 17 game vs the Titans. Good luck Texans!
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – OVER/Stay Away
Jacksonville comes into the season hoping to improve on their six wins in 2019. I’m not sure the ceiling is too much higher than 7 or 8 wins. The defense is bad, and there are still holes on the offense while coaching is not a strength. But with Minshew all things are possible, and the sophomore QB will have to play like a god in order for them to be a .500 team. He will be good, but I’m not sure he’s ready to carry a franchise just yet. Their schedule isn’t overly difficult as they get the following non-division games: Dolphins, at Bengals, Lions, at Chargers, at Packers, Steelers, Browns, at Vikings, at Ravens, Bears. They can win 3 or 4 of those games, and if they can go 2-4 or even 3-3 in division, they should end up with 6 or 7 wins. It’s hard to make a case for much better than that.
Lamar Jackson makes the Ravens a lock for a double digit wins.
The Baltimore Ravens enter 2020 with the highest of hopes. This team would probably win 10 games this year even if Pittsburgh could pick their schedule. They are gonna be good. And even with a Lamar Jackson injury, there’s enough talent on the roster to be competent. But with Lamar, the Ravens are elite. This Baltimore team could easily push for 14 or 15 wins, but projecting them at 13 wins sounds more realistic. Outside of their division games, (which should be difficult as the Browns and Steelers look like very good teams and the Bengals have clearly improved) they have some tough matchups. Here are the notable games: Week 3 vs Chiefs, Week 6 at Eagles, Week 10 at Patriots, Week 11 vs Titans, and Week 13 vs Cowboys. They finish very light with Weeks 14-17 being Browns, Jags, Giants, Bengals. I’d be surprised to see less than 11 or 12 wins from the Ravens.
The Bet: Over/Under 11 – OVER
Pittsburgh is another story entirely. In 2019, Mike Tomlin received Coach of the Year consideration for guiding Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges to an amazing 8-8 record. The defense returns in 2020 and should be one of the best units in the league. But it all hinges on Big Ben, his health, and whatever ability he has left in the tank. The Steelers did nothing to secure insurance behind their fragile 38 year-old signal-caller, and I fear that could be their demise. This was where I thought Jameis would have been perfect. In any event, they will face a challenge in 2020 to make the playoffs. They face the Giants, Broncos, and Texans in Weeks 1-3, with 2 of the 3 at home. Big Ben and co. better get at least two of those, because the stretch after that isn’t kind: at Titans, vs Eagles, vs Browns, and at Ravens before their bye. The Steelers get the Cowboys and the Ravens again after the bye, but other than that, the schedule eases some and they should be able to finish strong, but that’s assuming Big Ben is still healthy and able to lead his team in the cold weather.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – OVER
For Cleveland, 2019 was a nightmare in every way. Nothing worked. Well, except for Nick Chubb, because he’s awesome. The run game and the play-action pass game should improve with the addition of free agent Jack Conklin and rookie Jedrick Wills. Both players project to start at the tackle spots from day one and improve a unit that really couldn’t have been much worse than it was in 2019. Give Baker a little time to throw and some juice to the run game, and the Browns could be the post-hype sleepers of 2020. If they can take care of business against the average and below-average teams on the schedule, then the games against the Ravens (2), Steelers (2), Eagles, Cowboys, and Titans shouldn’t be their demise. I think this team will be at or near .500 all season long and a few key games will be the difference.
The Bet: Over/Under 8 – Stay Away
The Bengals are playing with house money. They’ve got nothing to lose and zero expectations. They could be frisky though. The problem will likely be the defense, which was bad last year and they didn’t do enough to make much difference in 2020. I really wanted to give the Bengals more than 4 wins, but let’s be real: how many of these games will they win? Chargers, at Browns, at Eagles, at Ravens, at Colts, Browns, Titans, at Steelers, Cowboys, Steelers, at Texans, Ravens. Seriously? That’s 12 games I ‘expect’ them to lose. Now, I’m sure they will find a way to win a couple of these somehow, but that doesn’t mean they’ll win all the other games too. 4 or 5 wins seems like the right number.
The Bet: Over/Under 5.5 – UNDER
AFC East
New England Patriots: 10-6 Buffalo Bills: 8-8 Miami Dolphins: 5-11 New York Jets: 4-12
Bill Belichick is ready to dominate the AFC East yet again this season.
How about this? I’ll put dirt on the New England Patriots when they’re dead, and not a moment before. I’ll admit, there is definitely a smidge of homerism in this one, but I’ve seen this movie before. The Patriots just don’t die. The Pats play some huge games this year: Week 2 at Seahawks, Week 4 at Chiefs, Week 7 vs 49ers, and Week 10 vs Ravens. I actually expect a 1-3 or 0-4 record in those games. But the rest of their schedule seems pretty favorable, and with the Dolphins and Jets still scuffling, they should be able to get to 10 wins. Cam gives the Pats a higher ceiling in 2020 and a confidence throughout the locker room.
The Bet: Over/Under 9.5 – Stay Away
I’m sure many will look at this Bills win total and scoff. But before you do, take a peek at Weeks 5 through 16: at Titans; vs Chiefs; at Jets; vs Patriots; vs Seahawks; at Cardinals; vs Chargers; at 49ers; vs Steelers; at Broncos; at Patriots. Damn!! Take away that Jets game and none of that seems fun at all. There are a bunch of top-15 defenses (or better) during that stretch, and Josh Allen will have to be better than he was last season in order to navigate that schedule with wins. I say they fall a little short and end up at 8-8. A better team than their record shows, but it is what it is. They just miss the playoffs.
The Bet: Over/Under 9 – UNDER
The Miami Dolphins are in such great hands with Brian Flores. This team over-achieved to 5 wins in 2019. In 2020 they will be very much the same. The rebuild is not complete. They still have a lot of holes to fill. This team could also have a pretty rough start as their schedule starts tough and never really relents. They get the Jets twice, and the Bengals and Jaguars, but they will be decided underdogs in almost every other game they play. It will be interesting to see how they treat Tua as he recovers from injury. I would almost like to see him have a redshirt season, but I also think it would be wise for him to get his feet wet in 2020. I think the Week 10 game against the Jets is when I would target a Tua appearance.
The Bet: Over/Under 6 – UNDER
Speaking of the Jets, they will enter the 2020 season with a much-improved offensive line that still projects to be one of the worst units in the league. Let’s just say it was real bad in 2019. The defense lost it’s best player, and it wasn’t a great unit to begin with. The skill positions are average at best. All this points to the Jets being a bottom feeder again in 2020. Everyone knows I really like Sam Darnold, but with no weapons, a bad offensive line, and the hurdle of Adam Gase coaching, I really don’t have too much hope for this team. When you look at their schedule, it’s really hard to find a winnable game at any point along the way, other than the Miami games. Ironically, Miami is looking at those games as winnable as well. Something has to give. I’m sure the Jets will surprise a few teams, but their fan base will be clamoring for Trevor Lawrence or Justin Fields come April, and it will be interesting to see what Joe Douglas does. Gase? Darnold? Draft? LeVeon Bell? Who knows.
The Bet: Over/Under 6.5 – UNDER
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs: 14-2 Los Angeles Chargers: 7-9 Las Vegas Raiders: 6-10 Denver Broncos: 6-10
Patrick Mahomes is a difference-maker like no other.
The Chiefs and Ravens feel like the two clear best teams in the NFL. And Mahomes’ ceiling and versatility combined with the Chiefs’ ability to play catch-up is the great equalizer in this parity-filled league. Mahomes’ singular greatness is the most potent weapon that the NFL has ever seen. When you give him the best receiving tight end in the league and the fastest wide receiver corps in the league, it almost feels unfair. Losing Damien Williams would normally be a pretty big loss, but notably the Chiefs added first-round running back and receiving weapon Clyde Edwards-Helaire. The defense just needs to be a middle of the road unit, and this team can threaten for 14 to 16 wins. Their schedule appears to be pretty thin as well. In Week 3 and Week 4 they play at Ravens and vs Patriots, and later in the season they play at Saints in Week 15 (I will be glued to the TV for this one). Other than that, the schedule seems to be pretty favorable.
The Bet: Over/Under 11.5 – OVER
The Chargers head into 2020 as a team that could surprise a few people. They drafted Justin Herbert, but many of us feel like Tyrod Taylor will play for however long the Chargers are in playoff contention. It looks like they will be competitive for most of the season. The Chargers have a Week 10 bye, and in their first 9 games, they have 6 very winnable games: at Bengals, vs Panthers, vs Jets, at Dolphins, vs Jaguars, vs Raiders. If they start hot, Taylor should keep his job. The second half of the season is much more difficult, but the Chargers could get close to 7 or 8 wins pretty quickly. They have offensive weapons and an improved offensive line. Their defense could be a top 10 unit for sure. All that being said, I wouldn’t want money on the under here, so either bet the over or stay away.
The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – Stay Away
The Las Vegas Raiders started hot last year, and finished with a very disappointing 7-9 record (1-5 last 6 games). Their 2020 schedule is a mixed bag. Playing in the AFC West, they get two vs the Chiefs, which will be near certain losses. They get the NFC South, so Saints, Falcons and Buccaneers won’t be easy games. They also get the AFC East, so Pats and Bills are rough, but Dolphins and Jets are welcomed opponents. Their two extra AFC games are tough draws, as they get the Browns and Colts. The Vegas line for the Vegas Raiders is right at 7 wins. I think that’s a good number. I have a hard time seeing them get to 8, so I’m inclined to bet the under if anything, but it’s probably closer to a stay away. Their defense was bad last year, and I don’t see too much that indicates it will improve. They play in a tough division and their schedule isn’t favorable. I’d likely bet the under and be glad with 7 being a push. If they get to 8, good for them, take my money.
The Bet: Over/Under 7 – Stay Away/UNDER
Denver could be the sneaky team in this division, but their win total in Vegas is at 7.5, so I guess the sharps are already aware. Similar schedule to the Raiders, but instead of facing the Browns and Colts, the Broncos will have the Titans and the Steelers. Yikes. The hope for the Broncos is they finished strong in 2019 (4-1 last 5 games) with Drew Lock at the helm. The idea for them as a .500 or better team comes from the hope they have with Drew Lock. I am a bit more pessimistic. If 7 wins is a win for the under, I think I like the Under for the Broncos. They can absolutely get to 8 or 9 wins, but I think 6 or 7 is just more likely for them. The one thing that worries me for the Under is that their last two games are against the Chargers and the Raiders, and if those two teams are out of contention, it could be the Herbert-led Chargers in one of his first games and a dejected Raiders team. No risk it, no biscuit!
The Bet: Over/Under 7.5 – UNDER/Stay Away
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Changes had to occur from the ground up, and the Washington Football Team started by clearing out the front office, freeing themselves from Bruce Allen’s incompetent reign. Then they stripped away the team name that had caused so much recent controversy. And finally, yesterday, they rid themselves of the centerpiece of their rushing attack, Derrius Guice. It truly is a new Ron RivERA in the nation’s capital.
Offensive coordinator Scott Turner already faced the daunting task of meshing an offensive line built for an outside zone scheme to his power running style. With Derrius Guice now gone and question marks at quarterback and receiver, the team figures to lean heavily on incumbent Adrian Peterson and newcomer Peyton Barber for early-down work. But if you’ve listened at all to the rumblings in Washington this offseason, you know how fond the new staff is of rookie Antonio Gibson.
Gibson touched the ball just 77 times during his collegiate career. But he totaled 1,203 yards and scored 14 touchdowns. The rookie is clearly talented. Whether or not he can sustain the everyday pounding of the NFL remains to be seen. Washington has 134 available targets from last year, so there should be an opportunity for Gibson or veteran J.D. McKissic (signed this offseason) to carve out a third down role.
The wild card in the room is former Stanford RB Bryce Love. He ran for 2,118 yards and 19 touchdowns before suffering a torn ACL his senior season. More than a year removed from injury, he’s been cleared for 2020, and could be the dark horse if Peterson starts to finally show his age.
If you’re playing dynasty, Gibson and/or Love are both worth a speculative add but likely already rostered. For redraft leagues it’ll be hard to trust the 35 year-old Peterson as anything but a low-end RB3, while Barber and McKissic will only serve as flies in the ointment. This is a next man up league and for Washington to have success this season, those next two guys will need to be Love and Gibson.
