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Seattle Seahawks Offseason Breakdown

Vivek Iyer
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Seattle Seahawks Offseason Breakdown

While the Seattle Seahawks kept several key stars, they added new starters at wide receiver and tight end, filling the rest of their roster with depth through free agency and the draft. The Seahawks signed Greg Olsen to a one-year, $7 million contract. Additionally, they added Philip Dorsett to fill their  #3 WR spot, signing him to a one-year deal worth nearly $1.05 million. In the draft, the Seahawks added linebacker Jordyn Brooks in the first round, selecting defensive players with 3 of their 8 picks. In the fourth round, Seattle picked Colby Parkinson (TE) and Deejay Dallas (RB), following that up with Freddie Swain (WR) in the sixth and Stephen Sullivan (TE, although previously a WR) in the seventh. They bolstered their offensive line by selecting Damien Lewis (G) out of LSU, however this unit still projects to be near the bottom of the league, ranking 28th for the 2020 season by PFF. All of these changes have sizable fantasy football impacts for 2020 and beyond, so let’s dig deeper in this Seattle Seahawks Offseason Breakdown.

Offense: A Breakdown

The Seattle Seahawks’ offensive philosophy should not drastically change from last season, as they retained Pete Carroll, Russell Wilson, and their 6 coordinators. Seattle was #3 in the league in rush attempts per game last year, trailing only the Ravens and 49ers. This translates to low pass attempts, and although Wilson threw more than his career average last season, the team still finished 24th in the league in this area. With all the injuries to Seattle’s running back corps, more pass attempts could open up, boding well for Wilson and his pass catchers. Regardless, don’t expect this offense to be leading the league in passing, despite Wilson’s talent.

Quarterback

Russell Wilson

Russell Wilson is one of the most frustrating quarterbacks to own in fantasy football. He is easily a top-3 NFL quarterback, a future Hall of Famer, and has the dual threat capabilities that we covet in fantasy football. Unfortunately, Pete Carroll refuses to fully unleash Wilson, as his career pass attempts per game average is only 29.5. This would rank 4th worst in the league last year compared to team stats, and although his pass attempts are improving over time, they still don’t equate to what his talent would demand. This leads to consistency issues, (especially in 4-point passing TD leagues) as one of Russell’s strengths is his touchdown percentage. Still, Wilson has finished as a QB 1 every single year of his career, with 4 top-three finishes in 8 years, including his QB3 finish last season. Although his rushing attempts have gradually come down as his career has progressed, he still has averaged over 434 rushing yards/season over the last three years, providing a solid weekly floor. With the plethora of injuries at running back, there is a case to be made for Wilson to receive more pass attempts, which would greatly help his consistency and end of season stats. Wilson projects as a mid-tier QB1 in redraft leagues with proven upside and week-to-week consistency issues. In dynasty, Wilson is a solid QB1 as well due to his talent and job security.

Running Back

Chris Carson

Chris Carson was a solid fantasy asset last year, finishing as the RB12 in PPR leagues. Carson led the Seattle backfield with 278 carries and 37 receptions, and was only really disappointing in Week 16, when he suffered a hip injury. This injury didn’t require offseason surgery, and Carson is expected to be ready for the regular season. Carson was plagued with fumbling issues last season, fumbling 7 times and losing 4. This led to mid-season concerns of an incoming timeshare, which were fulfilled in week 12 and 13 before backup running back Rashaad Penny’s injury (Carson still totaled 31 carries in that span, however Penny had 29). Coming into this year, Hyde and Penny might steal some touches from him, but Carson is still the lead back in Seattle barring further fumbling issues. He should be valued as a mid/low-end RB2 depending on his health in redraft leagues. With only one year left on his current deal and his ball security issues, Carson’s value in dynasty leagues should be downgraded to that of a high-end RB3.

Chris Carson is currently going as the RB 24 according to superflex dynasty adp on cantcutlist.com.

Rashaad Penny

Rashaad Penny has been a bust so far in his two year career. Penny reportedly entered training camp in his rookie season out of shape, opening the door for Carson to take the lead role. Last year, due to Carson’s fumbling issues, Penny split the backfield in Weeks 12 and 13, totaling 29 carries and 4 receptions for 236 yards and 3 touchdowns. In Week 14 however, Penny suffered a torn ACL against the Rams, ending his promising two-week stretch and his season.

In an offseason interview, Pete Carroll hinted that Penny could start the season on the NFL PUP (Physically Unable to Perform) List. The Reserve PUP list prohibits players from playing for six weeks, however allows teams to apply roster exemptions. Another possibility is being chosen for the active roster, in which case he would count against the 53 man roster limit. A third option is starting on IR, however this is unlikely as it would signify the end of his season (unless he is on the Week 1 active roster and then transfers to IR, in which case the team could select him as one of two players to return after 8 weeks. With all of this in mind, Penny will likely not be valuable for redraft leagues (at least early on) if he starts out on the PUP or the IR. All that said, it’s worth watching his injury recovery closely. If COVID-19 pushes back the season’s start date, there’s a possibility that Penny will be able to contribute right away, and thus could have significant redraft value. With the signing of Carlos Hyde, it’s clear that the team is wary of Penny’s injuries, and he would be part of a three-way timeshare in the beginning of the season.

Penny has first round draft equity, and has shown bursts of talent when given opportunity. He is still intriguing in dynasty leagues, as it remains to be seen whether the Seahawks will exercise his fifth-year option and if Carson will be resigned.

Carlos Hyde

Carlos Hyde was signed this offseason to a one-year contract in order to shore up Seattle’s injury riddled backfield. With Rashaad Penny rumored to start the season on the PUP list and Carson recovering from a hip injury, Hyde has the opportunity to (at least) split the backfield until Penny returns. If Carson is back by the time the season returns, Hyde won’t be fantasy relevant barring a subsequent injury, however if Carson’s recovery takes longer than expected, Hyde will likely take the majority of first and second down work, including red zone touches. That would make him a solid RB3 with touchdown upside. It’s also worth monitoring the progression of Deejay Dallas during the offseason, as he could steal some rushing and receiving work. Hyde is a short-term asset in dynasty leagues, but could provide redraft value as the season nears.

Deejay Dallas

Deejay Dallas was drafted in the fourth round this year out of Miami and will step into a depth role for the Seahawks. Dallas is 5’10”, 217 pounds, and his strengths include running through contact and versatility. Dallas consistently fights through contact with impressive lower-body strength, enabling him to gain extra yardage. Despite a lack of extensive receiving production in college, Dallas was a wide receiver in high school, and could contribute in a pass-catching role in the NFL. Additionally, he has experience as a returner, which will help him compete for a roster spot with the Seahawks. Due to his draft equity, Dallas projects to beat out Travis Homer for the fourth string spot on the depth chart, and this could improve due to Rashaad Penny and Chris Carson’s injuries and the contract uncertainty of the running backs ahead of him on the roster. Dallas is not important for redraft leagues, however is an intriguing late-round target in rookie drafts given Seattle’s running back situation.

Wide Receiver

Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett is one of the most underappreciated NFL wide receivers. While D.K. Metcalf has the physical traits to become a superstar, Lockett has proven to be a consistent #1 WR for Russell Wilson. Wilson’s QB rating when targeting Lockett last year was 124.7, ranking fifth in the league. This was nearly 20 points above Wilson’s 106.4 passer rating last season, proving that Wilson was better when targeting Lockett compared to the rest of his wide receivers. This was on 82 receptions, which ranked 14th in the league, so this isn’t due to a small sample size. Wilson’s QB rating was a perfect 158.3 (#1 in the league) when targeting Lockett in 2018. Since 2002, the highest target total by a receiver with a perfect passing rating when targeted was 15 targets. Lockett holds the highest wide receiver DVOA since 1986 for his 2018 performance, proving how effective he can be in this offense. Lockett receives valuable targets, ranking 1st and 17th in 2018 and 2019 in yards per target (his 13.79 y/t in 2018 ranks #1 from 1920 to 2018 per Pro Football Reference). Additionally, Lockett ranked 2nd in red zone receptions with 17 in 2019, so even though the passing volume of the offense isn’t high, Lockett still gets the valuable targets that close the gap between himself and other wide receivers with higher target volumes. In my opinion, Lockett and Metcalf will be 1A and 1B options this year, and thus Lockett should be valued as a mid/low-tier WR2 for redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues, he is more of a fringe WR2.

Tyler Lockett’s 2018 season was historically great in terms of passer rating when targeted.

D.K. Metcalf

D.K. Metcalf was my number one rookie wide receiver post-NFL draft due to his landing spot, quarterback, and incredible athleticism, and last year he definitely showed why. With 99th percentile speed, 97th percentile burst, and a 6’3”, 228 pound frame, Metcalf is an absolute mismatch on the perimeter. He outperformed expectations last year, garnering 100 targets for 900 yards and 7 touchdowns. With an average of 15.5 yards per reception and 4.33 40-yard dash speed, Metcalf is a deep threat who demonstrated more versatility in his route running than he showed in college, showing promising growth for a rookie. Metcalf should be treated as a high-end WR3 in redraft leagues with upside, and in dynasty the sky’s the limit given his athletic profile. He is a solid WR2 there with legitimate WR1 upside in the future.

Philip Dorsett II

Philip Dorsett’s one-year deal with the Seahawks makes him their #3 WR. Dorsett is a deep-field burner with elite speed and agility, demonstrated by his 99th percentile 40-yard dash speed and his 14.7 yard average depth of target in 2019. Despite his physical gifts, Dorsett has been relatively unimpressive compared to his first round draft capital so far in his career. Dorsett is irrelevant for most redraft leagues given the Seahawks’ run-first play calling, and doesn’t have a clear route to improved production for dynasty leagues. He is nothing more than a depth piece in that format.

Freddie Swain

Freddie Swain was drafted in the 6th round this year out of Florida, and while he won’t be an immediate starter, he could compete for slot snaps in the future. He has potential to grow into a kick/punt returner, and can use his speed and burst to be electric on special teams. He is not relevant for redraft leagues, nor most dynasty leagues, given Seattle’s low passing volume and their existing weapons.

Tight End

Greg Olsen

Greg Olsen was signed this offseason to a one-year deal, and will compete for the starting job in Seattle. Olsen has had a storied career, however injuries have plagued him as of late, and it remains to be seen how large of an impact he can make in his 14th season. With Will Dissly recovering from a torn achilles, Olsen seems to be in line to make a sizable impact on this offense. Still, he does not need to be rostered in standard redraft leagues, and is a short-term, declining asset in dynasty leagues.

Will Dissly

Will Dissly has been plagued with injuries in his first two seasons, playing in only 10 games over that span. His rookie season ended due to a ruptured right patellar tendon, and his sophomore season was cut short due to a torn left achilles. In his five full games last year, Dissly was the TE 5 in PPR leagues, averaging 14.8 points per game. Dissly has been productive in his short career, averaging 4.6 receptions per game and 0.8 touchdowns per game, and thus is still intriguing for dynasty purposes. Unfortunately, due to the other options at tight end in Seattle, he does not need to be drafted in most redraft leagues. Keep an eye on him as the season progresses.

Jacob Hollister

Jacob Hollister proved to be a streamable tight end asset last year due to injuries to Ed Dickson and Will Dissly, finishing as the TE12 in PPR leagues from Week 7 to Week 17 (after Dissly suffered a torn Achilles). Despite this production, Hollister is the third tight end option in this Seattle offense, and thus has limited fantasy value. He is not on the redraft radar, however could have sneaky dynasty value in leagues with very deep rosters given the age of Greg Olsen and the injury concerns surrounding Will Dissly.

Colby Parkinson

Former Stanford TE Colby Parkinson was the Seahawks’ 4th round selection in the 2020 NFL Draft, and will likely serve as a depth piece in this offense. Parkinson recently suffered a foot fracture in practice, and will be out for the foreseeable future. With all of the tight ends ahead of him on the depth chart, Parkinson has no short term value and does not need to be rostered in most dynasty leagues.

Final Thoughts

While the Seahawks didn’t make massive personnel changes this offseason, there are still plenty of fantasy ramifications. With the additions they made through free agency to their tight end and wide receiver corps, Wilson will have some new weapons to throw to. Overall, the Seahawks added more depth, which is especially important for this season due to COVID-19.

Follow Vivek Iyer on Twitter for more offseason breakdowns and fantasy football content! If you would like to read more offseason team breakdowns, there are many more published on cantcutlist.com, including the entirety of the NFC South. Thank you for reading!

Todd Gurley & Derrius Guice | Injury Analysis

Adam Hutchison
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Todd Gurley & Derrius Guice | Injury Analysis

I don’t need to tell anyone this, but in fantasy football… running backs matter. Fantasy managers draft running backs high; they will overpay for them and risk it all on the next great “breakout” player. Todd Gurley and Derrius Guice are coveted players to have on a fantasy roster because of the position they play. However, they are being treated very differently heading into the 2020 season. After clearing the Falcons’ physical, Gurley has seamlessly been given the green light by fantasy managers and is slotted as a late-2nd/early-3rd round pick in PPR leagues. On the other hand, Derrius Guice has been unable to get on the football field for any meaningful amount of time and is buried in the back of the 6th round. I understand the excitement for Gurley and the trepidation for Guice. We have all seen Gurley dominate (mostly recently in 2018) and for the most part Guice has hardly played. But if fantasy football has taught me anything, recency bias can be a dangerous thing. As I looked into each of these players’ medical histories, I started to realize that my view of these running backs differed from their current ADP. 

Todd Gurley

The Injury History: 

During his junior season at the University of Georgia, Gurley suffered a non-contact ACL tear. The recovery from this injury bled into his rookie season with the Rams, resulting in him missing the first two games of the season. Once Gurley returned, he was reliable. He missed one more game in 2015 due to turf toe (unrelated to the ACL), played all of 2016, and was active for all of 2017 besides being a healthy scratch in Week 17. Then 2018 happened. Towards the end of the season, Gurley started to experience knee “discomfort” and sat out Weeks 16-17. This was significant, considering that is usually most leagues’ fantasy football championships (ouch.) During the following offseason, reports surfaced regarding the Rams’ concerns about the state of Gurley’s knee. Gurley’s 2019 season started fine before he strained his quadriceps and missed one game. A quadriceps injury based on Gurley’s past medical history is not something to ignore, as I will explain later.

The Case Against Gurley:

It would appear that Gurley’s knee discomfort is the result of early onset osteoarthritis. The symptoms that Gurley was having in 2018 were likely secondary to inflammation due to osteoarthritis (OA). It’s not uncommon to develop OA following an ACL tear. Studies have shown people who suffer an ACL tear are more likely to develop OA 10 years after their original injury. Although the demographics of these studies are not specific to NFL players, it offers some explanation to why Gurley is having these symptoms four to five years after his ACL rupture. When studying players in the age range of Gurley and with a similar past medical history, we see that the rate of knee OA is high (around 20-30%) [1]. The main issue with OA and knee inflammation is there is no treatment for it. It can be managed but it never truly goes away unless you get a total joint replacement which would effectively end Gurley’s career. This means Gurley can play through the pain as long as he can stand it, but the inflammation will continue to develop and get worse with time and the stresses of football. 

Research has also shown that after an ACL tear your knee is never exactly the same. The knee joint is biologically and physiologically altered. Over time this can impair neuromuscular patterns of muscle groups around the knee joint – more specifically the quadriceps [2]. The quadriceps is the muscle that Gurley strained in 2019. Another sign that hints lingering issues for Gurley post-ACL surgery. 

Credit: AP | Copyright: Copyright 2019 The Associated Press. All rights reserved
Information extracted from IPTC Photo Metadata.

Derrius Guice

The Injury History: 

After being selected in the second round by Washington, Derrius Guice got off to a hot start in training camp and was pegged as a “sleeper” heading into the 2018 season. However in his very first preseason game, Guice sustained a contact ACL tear, effectively ending his season before it even got started. It’s important to note that unlike Todd Gurley’s injury, Guice’s ACL tear was not a non-contact ACL tear. His knee buckled when his foot was planted in the ground and a Patriot’s defender collided with the outside of his right leg. Non-contact ACL tears can happen for a variety of reasons, some of which are due to poor biomechanics or even muscular imbalances. They can be avoided if these flaws are corrected. However, contact ACL tears are just a circumstance of chance. They can happen to anyone and are the end result when an external force exerts enough pressure that causes the ACL to give. What followed after Guice’s ACL injury was a heavy stream of bad luck.

First, Guice experienced an infection following his ACL repair (ACLR). I can’t stress how rare this is. In my entire professional career I have not seen one healthy client who experienced an infection following this surgery. When I first heard about this I had to look up the infection occurrence rate post-ACLR. Results show that there is between 0.1-1.2% chance that infections occur with arthroscopic ACLRs [3].  There is no doubt that developing an infection delayed Guice’s recovery. It’s worth pointing out the fact that Washington’s medical staff has had issues before such as Alex Smith’s infection post-surgery and the mishandling of Trent Williams’ tumor is troubling. It could be a coincidence, but so many close together like that is concerning. However, I have no inside information on this subject matter. 

In 2019, Guice’s time on the field was short lived. Guice tore his right meniscus in Week 1. I typically avoid players the year following an ACL injury due to multiple factors, but injury to the other leg is typically low. Injury to the other lower extremity is around 3.7% for male athletes [4], another sign of Guice’s misfortune. 

When Guice was able to return, the young running back played only four games before he sprained his left MCL (the same leg as the ACL repair). He  was placed on IR shortly after. 

The Case For Guice:

I know it would appear that I am being selective with their medical histories, making an argument against Gurley but not applying those same principles to Guice. Hear me out. Guice suffered a contact ACL tear which we have established is no fault of his own based on the mechanism of injury. He struggled through the early part of his rehabilitation because of an infection. Once he finally returned to action, he injured his right knee, which based on research has a low probability of happening. It’s unfair to label Guice as injury prone, instead he should be labeled as unlucky. Seriously, Daniel Handler could cast Guice in his book series A Series of Unfortunate Events.

Unlike Gurley, Guice has not shown any signs of knee OA, mainly because he has not played. Guice is also much younger than Gurley (will be 23 by the time the NFL season starts) and his ACL tear was more recent. Both of these signs suggest his risk of developing any complications following his ACLR are further down the line. Guice is not injury prone and could be in line for serious fantasy production in the short term.

Conclusion

I am hinging a lot of my argument against Todd Gurley on the belief that he is showing signs of arthritis in his knees. From my point of view the writing is on the walls. It is well documented at this point that Gurley is struggling with knee discomfort in his surgically repaired knee. 2019 also hinted at a possible production decline for the Falcons RB. Gurley saw a dip in his rushing attempts per game, targets per game and yielded under 4 yards a carry (YPC) after averaging nearly 5 YPC the two years prior. There are many suggestions for why this happened, but it’s quite possible the Rams witnessed his decline first hand. In fact, despite taking a major hit to their cap, L.A. let Gurley walk this offseason. You cannot make direct comparisons, but a similar trend happened to Jay Ajayi during his age 26 season. Ajayi also struggled with arthritis after multiple ACL injuries and his fantasy production fell off a cliff. Entering the 2020 season, Gurley will be 26 years old, past the age apex for running back fantasy football production (24) and on the brink of a steeper drop-off. Combine the signs and symptoms of knee OA with his production diminishing, and prepare for him to hit a wall. The argument I often read for Gurley is that he signed a short contract with Atlanta and they are going to “run him into the ground.” Doing such might result in him being unable to finish the season again.  I don’t want to be anywhere near it when that floor breaks, especially when the discussed player is being drafted in the second round. 

Derrius Guice on the other hand will be 23 by the time the 2020 NFL season starts, below the aforementioned age apex. Guice has not shown any complications of his ACL tear yet, admittedly because he has not played much. I could be making the same argument that I made for Gurley against Guice in 2-3 years, however until he shows signs of slowing down or decreased production I won’t do it. I don’t think the fantasy community is being fair to Guice. When I look at his situation, it’s evident to me that his injury history is the result of poor luck opposed to being injury prone. Don’t misunderstand me either. There is risk with Guice, but it’s a risk worth taking in the middle rounds of fantasy drafts. Running backs of Guice’s caliber do not make it to the 6th round of fantasy football drafts. If I am going to take a chance, it is going to be on the player who is young, misunderstood, and carries the least amount of risk based on ADP. Guice has all the makings of a league winner heading into 2020. 

For More information regarding Todd Gurley and the Atlanta Falcons’ offense, check out another piece on our site called “Atlanta Falcons Offseason Breakdown” by Vivek Iyer.

References: 

[1] Golightly, Y. M., Marshall, S. W., Callahan, L. F., & Kevin Guskiewicz, K. (n.d.). Early-Onset Arthritis in Retired National Football League Players. Retrieved June 30, 2020, fromhttps://www.researchgate.net/publication/40428176_Early-Onset_Arthritis_in_Retired_National_Football_League_Players

[2] Schmitt, L., Paterno, M., Ford, K., Myer, G., & Hewett, T. (2015, July). Strength Asymmetry and Landing Mechanics at Return to Sport after Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction. Retrieved June 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4418954/

[3] Gupta, R., Sood, M., Malhotra, A., Masih, G., Raghav, M., & Khanna, T. (2018). Incidence, Risk Factors, and Management of Infection Following Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction Surgery. Retrieved June 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6055468/

[4]Shelbourne, K., Gray, T., & Haro, M. (2009, February). Incidence of subsequent injury to either knee within 5 years after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction with patellar tendon autograft. Retrieved June 30, 2020, from https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/19109531

2020 Running Back Breakout Model

Luke Neuendorf
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2020 Running Back Breakout Model

What classifies as a breakout?​

How one classifies a breakout player is very subjective. Some say finishing in the top 24 at a given position is a breakout, others say it is outperforming ADP by a sizable number. Initially, I used a positive point differential from the one season to the next to classify a breakout. However, this seemed like a flawed process, as prior season points are not the only factors contributing to ADP the following season (age, opportunity, coaching changes to name a few other contributing factors.) I eventually came across JJ Zachariason’s series of articles on finding breakout players [1]. He plotted preseason ADP versus end-of-season fantasy points, and used a trendline to calculate expected fantasy points at a given ADP. From there, he calculated the difference of total end-of-season fantasy points minus expected-ADP fantasy points.

I ended up following the same process, pulling overall running back PPR ADP from MyFantasyLeague from 2013-2019, and plotting it against end-of-season PPR points.

Luke's Breakout RB Article

Using the generated logarithmic trendline equation, I was able to calculate expected fantasy points by draft position, a point differential.

The Process

Next, I had to think about what variables I would include in my RB Breakout model. Like any logical person, I decided to pull all 101 different player stats, including combine metrics and prior season statistics. I then ran the correlations of their point differential against each of these variables (from a sample of 396 running backs). The highest correlation was prior season run snaps with an r-squared value of 15%, admittedly not staggering results.

Version 1

In my first model, I eliminated all variables that had an r-squared of less than 1%, leading to a pool of 35 variables. Next, I created a formula that weighted each of these variables by strength of correlation, producing a score that predicts how much a player will outscore expected points at their ADP, with 10 being a perfect score. A 10 means the given player is projected to outscore their expected ADP point by a larger margin than a player with a score of 9. The results are below.

Although interesting results, this failed to predict any true breakouts. Looking at the top 10 players, they have all broken out. These results go to show that prior season opportunity is most predictive of outperforming expected ADP points.

Version 2 – The Real Breakouts

In the second model, I only took variables that were on a per game, per carry, or rate basis (e.g. carries per game, light front yards per carry, or stuffed run rate). That way, the model would not heavily favor those who didn’t play a complete season or were on the field fewer snaps. Again, using the 1% r-squared threshold, leading to a formula that took 20 different variables into account.

This led to some large score jumps from a few players, most notably, Mike Boone, Derrius Guice, and Rashaad Penny.

Final Results (3rd time’s a charm)

Taking it a step further, I eliminated all running backs with a 5th round or higher ADP, leading to the results below.

Important Notes

It is important to know that these models do NOT take situational changes into account. That is to say that free agent signings, rookie running back additions, or coaching changes are not factored in. That is why you need to discount players’ scores like Mark Ingram, who now has to compete with second-round rookie J.K. Dobbins.

Additionally, I ended up removing rookies from the model because all combine metrics had too poor of correlations, so the only variable left that applied to rookies was years played.

Furthermore, this model is not the end all be all. The correlations between point differential and each of the variables were poor at best. This should be used as one piece of information to determine who you will believe will break out. It should not be used as the only piece of information you use to make those judgements.

Thanks for reading! If you’re interested in more content like this, you can follow me on Twitter at @LukeNeuendorf.

Sources:

[1] Zachariason, JJ. “How to Find Breakout Running Backs in Fantasy Football.” NumberFire, 2 June         2020, www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/32021/how-to-find-breakout-running-backs-in-fantasy-football.

SFBX Draft Strategy

Jax Falcone
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SFBX Draft Strategy

The Scott Fish Bowl is an annual event that many of us look forward to. Fantasy football players all over the world get to test their skills against their favorite analysts. Analysts are eager to jockey for bragging rights and make sure they don’t get embarrassed. There are celebrities and all the pomp and circumstance of a legit event. I love it.

As I approach SFBX, there are a few bits of advice I can share with you. None more important than rule number one.

Rule 1 – Don’t overthink it.

Don’t get too cute. I’ve seen people get waaaay too cute during this draft. And it never works. Essentially, you are simply playing in a single, 12 team, 12 week league. And if you do well enough, you’ll enter a 4-week playoff that will require immense luck to win. So, the first order of business is to simply make the playoffs in a single 12 team league. In my division last year, a player drafted 4 straight TEs (it’s TE Premium). I’ve seen guys make huge reaches because they want to have been the smartest guy ever when they finally hoist the trophy. It never works. Stay solid.

Rule 2 – Don’t overreact to the scoring.

Last year there was a bonus for QBs who have over 300 yards in a game. So, I drafted BigBen and Goff. They both went over 300 yards a ton the year before, and I thought I was creating an advantage for myself. I normally target Konami Code QBs, but the 300-yard bonus swayed me. FYI – I passed on Lamar and Dak. And I swear, if I had those two guys I might have had a chance to win it. My team was pretty solid otherwise.

This year, there are huge penalties for bad QB play. And there are points for completion percentage. Anything less than 67% will yield a negative number. Minus 6 total for a pick-6. And even sacks are -1 per sack taken. There will be swarms of people advocating for Brees at 1.01 because of his efficiency. And the truth is, Brees is a great pick and in this Superflex format he should be moved way up the board, but I can’t advocate taking him 1.01. Adjust your rankings, don’t recreate them.

Rule 3 – Secure as many bell cow RBs as possible.

Our definition of bell cow may differ from one another, but either way, there is a finite number of these assets. By any count, there are only about 10-15 stud RBs. If you have 2-3, that should serve you well. The scoring is relatively even in this format, but you must start two RBs every week, so you want to be sure you aren’t taking a zero (near zero) in one of those spots. And with deep rosters, the waiver wire will be devoid of quality backups and handcuffs. They’ll all be rostered.

When drafting RBs later in the draft, swing for maximum upside. Miles Sanders last year was that type of player. JK Dobbins is that type of player this year. Dobbins has huge upside at a relatively reasonable price tag. He isn’t as cheap as Sanders last year, but these are the types of mid-late round RBs to target. Unless I get sniped, I will own Zack Moss.

Rule 4 – Make sure you leave the draft with 3 starting QBs.

Last year was an outlier. There were so many QBs that missed time. The waiver wire had guys like – Gardner Minshew, Teddy Bridgewater, Mason Rudolph, Kyle Allen, Ryan Tannehill, etc … I wouldn’t expect that this year, or any year. That was an outlier. Secure 3 solid starters and make sure you have the flexibility to play the best QB matchups. A QB on the road vs a great defense could yield you a negative number from one of your QB slots. I want to avoid that if I can. Last year, the Sam Darnold “Ghost Game” would have been a -29 point game. NEGATIVE 29! I’d like to have some options with my QBs.

Rule 5 – TE early or TE late.

Kelce. Kittle. Ertz. These guys all should give you an extreme advantage at the TE position. But if I miss out on the top options, I’ll let me leaguemates try and pick the winners from the next group and I’ll take the leftovers. From TE5 through TE20, I don’t think any of us could effectively rank these guys. We are all guessing. TEs get injured and much of their production comes from TDs, which are random. This creates annual and weekly volatility at the position. If you don’t secure a stud, then wait at the position and add value elsewhere.

Rule 6 – Remember the deep starting rosters.

In a more shallow league, you may draft 2 RB and 3 WRs and then start swinging for upside with handcuffs and volatile assets. In this league, you can’t forget that you start 1QB 2RB 3WR 1TE 3 flex and an SF spot. Those 3 flex spots are what win you weeks. Trust me. So when you’re drafting in those middle rounds, you should be seeking WR with definite target shares. You watch, guys like Edelman and Marvin Jones and Jamison Crowder will all be passed on for high-end cuffs and rookie WRs. I’m not saying you should be reaching for the players I just named, in saying don’t be afraid to take the value when it inevitably falls in your lap.

(You’ll be starting Marvin Jones and your opponent will be staring at Mattison on his bench.)

Rule 7 – Be smart, but aggressive with your FAAB.

I was able to acquire both Terry McLaurin and DJ Chark off waivers in my division last year. I think everyone was ‘saving’ their FAAB and I was able to greatly improve my team.

Rule 8 – Be Grateful. Have fun. And be nice.

This is a celebratory, invitational charity event. Treat it as such. Be kind to any and all competitors. Be respectful of the hours of work that has gone in to the event. Promote the event so that we can maximize our charitable reach.

And again… BE GRATEFUL!

Good luck. It’ll be interesting to see which one of you fools comes in second.

New York Jets Offseason Breakdown

Kayne Rob
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New York Jets Offseason Breakdown

Joe Douglas, GM of the New York Jets, was very clear with his offseason priorities for the 2020 season. These priorities were protecting his young franchise quarterback and getting him some more pass catching talent. After posting the league’s second worst protection rate (31st overall) and 28th overall supporting cast, I would say these priorities were greatly warranted. Although the names may not jump off the paper, I would say Douglas delivered on his promise. This offseason the Jets used the 11th overall pick on OT Mekhi Becton, whom many scouts claimed may carry the most natural talent and upside of all tackles in the draft. The Jets also signed free agents Greg Van Roten, Connor McGovern, George Fant, Alex Lewis, and Josh Andrews as additions to the offensive line. That is a hefty amount of protection with six new lineman coming to town, but Douglas wasn’t done.  The Jets brought in Tampa Bay Buccaneers late-shiner Breshad Perriman to replace speedster Robby Anderson and went on to draft Baylor standout Denzel Mims in the 2nd round. Lastly, on the offensive side of the ball the Jets brought in “Father Time” himself, Frank Gore, and drafted La’Mical Perine in the 4th round. The Jets heavily invested in offensive depth and are hoping to take a step forward in the Tom Brady-less AFC East in 2020.

Offense: An Overview

With all the additions to the offense, there will be fewer excuses for Adam Gase in year two with the team. Hopefully having his starting quarterback healthy for the full year will help the team gel as we saw down the stretch of the season, after the early bumps in the road during 2019. Sam Darnold will be expected to show more consistency with his flashes of superstar potential with all the additions to keep him upright and extend his time per play. We shouldn’t expect too many drastic changes in the offensive approach, but going into year two of the same system, we should expect to see more efficiency and consistency. Otherwise, we may be seeing Darnold’s third head coach by the time 2021 approaches.

Quarterback

Sam Darnold

Sam Darnold is a great dynasty buy and late round streaming QB in redraft formats. Many across the community seem to fear Darnold (and most Jets players) due to the infamous Adam Gase, yet even after seeing ghosts, Darnold’s potential showed well. In fact, from weeks 8-17 Darnold was QB11 on the year, and if you are like most leagues out there and do not play in week 17, then Darnold was QB8 across weeks 8-16. All of that success was playing with the league’s 31st-rated protection rate and 28th-rated supporting cast efficiency. People may bring up INTs as a negative with Darnold, and rightfully so if you solely look at the end total, but digging deeper over half of Darnold’s INTs (7) came in two back-to-back games soon after his return from mono. I would expect most young QBs to make those mistakes shaking off rust coming back off of multiple missed games early. In all honesty, the bout with mono was more damaging to Darnold’s season than Gase was. As mentioned before, they brought in new protection for Darnold; more time to throw the ball should only improve his numbers. Finally, for dynasty players: Darnold is just entering his age 23 season and is younger than Dwayne Haskins, Joe Burrow, Drew Lock, Gardner Minshew, Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson, and Josh Allen. The time to buy is now before the true breakout comes and Darnold’s price skyrockets.

QB Sam Darnold is ready for year 3 in 2020. (Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)

Joe Flacco

Heading into his age 35 season, Flacco’s fantasy relevancy is nearing zero. Flacco was brought to the Jets to be more of a mentor for young quarterbacks Sam Darnold and James Morgan more than anything. Prior to the neck injury in Denver, Flacco threw for 1,822 yards, 6 TDs, and 5 interceptions over the course of eight games. It wasn’t looking good and it may have very well been the end of Flacco’s starting career as well. I wouldn’t hold your breath for any contributions here in either redraft or dynasty.

James Morgan

This fourth-round draft pick and former FIU quarterback seemed to draw a lot of teams’ interest, taking a number of virtual draft visits across the league. Over his final two years at FIU, Morgan threw over 5,000 yards, 40 TDs, and 12 interceptions. Although it looked like Morgan could be a sneaky late-round quarterback, his landing spot behind Darnold has waived any hope for relevancy over the course of Morgan’s rookie contract. For dynasty, Morgan is likely nothing more than a deep sleeper/taxi stash barring injury to Darnold. 

Running Back

Le’Veon Bell

Le’Veon Bell holds some great value for the later RBs going off the board. Bell was 11th in carries in 2019, 4th in RB snap share, and 7th in opportunity share, showing the work is there. In all honesty, the new O-Line improvements may be equally or even more beneficial to Bell than Darnold. Bell saw some of the most evaded tackles in the league, (17th overall) yet he also had the worst yards per carry (YPC) in his career at a terrible 3.22. A lot of that was on the o-line that let defenders through like swiss cheese. With an improvement in blocking, I expect that YPC to raise once again; even 3.8 YPC would be a major improvement to his rushing totals. Bell’s greatest value still remains in the pass game, where he was a top-10 RB in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He is currently going as the RB26 off the board in ADP, and even with a slight uptick in rushing efficiency paired with his pass game numbers, he should outproduce that position. Bell is a great value in redraft and possibly a decent buy-low option if you are looking to compete in dynasty.

Frank Gore

Frank Gore, aka “Father Time,” will likely snake some valuable touches throughout the season, but it won’t be enough to make him a valuable fantasy play in any format barring injury. Over the last two seasons, Gore has seen 6.8 & 5.5 fantasy points per game, ranking 51st and 60th among RBs. That isn’t likely to get any better, as even barring injury Gore will likely serve as part of a committee due to his age.

Lamical Perine

Perine is another 2020 fourth-round draft pick of the NY Jets. College production won’t wow you when looking at the numbers, as Perine never even cracked 850 rush yards over his 4 years. His senior season involvement in the pass game is likely what helped his draft stock, going from around 11 targets a year in his first three years to 40 targets with 5 receiving TDs in his senior season. That being said, with both Bell and Gore in the backfield, his 2020 relevance is likely slim to none. He could hold some value in dynasty formats, but that is pretty minimal at the moment as well.

Wide Receiver

Jamison Crowder

If you are in any sort of PPR scoring league, I suggest you buy/draft Jamison Crowder. His ADP has him going around the 13th round or later, but as we saw in each game, Crowder serves as a security blanket for Darnold on the field. Crowder led the team in targets in seven (nearly eight) of the 13 games that Darnold played in. Crowder was also top-20 for wide receivers in target rate, receptions, red zone receptions, and yards after catch. All of that for a guy who is going between WR58-WR63 in drafts. In dynasty you may even be able to get him for a 3rd round rookie pick, which is a steal in itself. Crowder serves as a solid flex play in all PPR formats and will likely be peppered once again this season.

Breshad Perriman

Perriman’s end-of-season breakout with Tampa Bay landed him a one year prove-it deal with the Jets. Perriman has had quite the struggle in his career, failing to take off with the Ravens, Browns, and most of his time in Tampa. This will definitely be a make-or-break year for him filling in Robby Anderson’s vacant role. Most of Perriman’s late success in Tampa took place due to the injuries of Godwin & Evans paired with the high-octane passing offense that Bruce Arians runs. Perriman projects more as a boom-bust flex option in any format, with his fantasy output likely relying on big-play touchdowns. I don’t foresee a big season for the former Buccaneer, and I imagine Crowder, Mims, and Herndon are the better options to roster.

Denzel Mims

Taken in the 2nd round of the 2020 NFL draft, Mims drew first round grades from some NFL analysts and landed on a team with no true WR1. Posting scores above the 90th percentile in four of the five major workout metrics and a college dominator score in the 85th percentile, Mims is truly an athletic freak unlike any wide receiver Darnold has had on the roster thus far. In fact, one of his player comparisons from his metric scores posted is none other than 2019 fantasy breakout Chris Godwin. With the opportunity alone, Mims could be one of the earlier producers from this 2020 rookie WR class. In dynasty, Mims is a solid piece that may honestly be undervalued within this “stacked” class. He may be my third or fourth favorite wide receiver in the class the more I watch tape and look into him. For redraft purposes, I would likely pass due to the minimal offseason and training camps, but he could be a solid waiver add especially as the season goes on.

2nd Round Draft Pick Baylor WR Denzel Mims (Photo: Jerome Miron, USA TODAY Sports)

Tight End

Chris Herndon

With tremendous flashes of potential in his rookie year, Sam Darnold’s efficiency and success with the tight end, and a lost season due to injury allow Herndon to be a sneaky late-round flier at tight end for 2020. On the dynasty side of things, he is still very young (24) and his lost season allows him to be of fairly cheap cost at the moment. Looking back to his great rookie year, Herndon had a 17% red zone target share and a true catch rate of 92.9%! That was FIRST among all TEs in the NFL. The young tight end also was top 10 in yards per reception, yards per target, and dominator ranking. Taking a look at his numbers in 2018 plus Darnold’s use of the TE in 2019, all signs point to a solid late-round tight end with Herndon if he can hold onto the job. The Jets have come out multiple times this offseason speaking on their plans to incorporate Herndon. They also have mentioned how they will use him to open up the field. If you’re looking to find a potential tight end lottery ticket, Herndon may be one of your best bets.

Ryan Griffin

Griffin had a quietly good season in 2019. Many may have grabbed him as a flier throughout the year with Herndon down, but his efficiency really jumps off the page. Ryan Griffin posted the #1 target separation among all TEs while having the 9th dominator rating, 1st QB rating when targeted, and being 2nd in fantasy points per target among TEs. He also had the top catch rate of all tight ends in 2019. How did the Jets respond to his output? They gave him a three-year, $10.8 million extension, giving him at least two more seasons with the team. All of that said, Griffin continues to hold little value in either format barring injury or scheme change. Not only is the tight end already 30 years old, but the Jets ran the fifth-least amount of 12 personnel in the NFL in 2019 at 12%. With the return of Herndon, Griffin’s snaps and targets look to take a significant hit.

Final Thoughts

With the 2020 offseason placing heavy investment in the New York Jets offense, there will need to be a significant improvement otherwise Gase may get the ax. A healthy Darnold paired with year two in this new offensive system should spell more efficiency from a team that has had a significant amount of coaching and scheme changes over the last three years. If the new additions on the offensive line step up, there could be some sneaky fantasy values on this often-avoided offense.

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