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Evan Engram | Injury Outlook

Adam Hutchison
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Evan Engram | Injury Outlook

One of the more difficult players to forecast in 2020 is the ever so talented, but often injured tight end in New York – Evan Engram. While many fantasy football experts have a consensus top 3 at the tight end position, Engram finds himself on the outside looking in. His ranking is not due to a shortage of talent, nor a lack of opportunity to succeed. Instead his ranking is secondary to the injuries that have plagued him early in his career. So, let’s break down Engram’s injury history and forecast what 2020 might have in store. 

Past Medical History:

Listed below are Evan Engram’s injuries since 2017 (the year he entered the NFL). I have assigned risk values to each:

  • Green Flag = no real issue/injury that commonly occurs in the NFL.
  • Yellow Flag = minor concern, recurrent issues could become chronic and impair his long-term outlook.
  • Reg Flag = major concern, could negatively affect the next season.

Disclaimer: These designations are my opinion alone and based on my past medical experience as a physical therapist and research I have studied. 

  • 2017 Rib Contusion: Green Flag
    • Common NFL injury. This is part of playing a physical sport.
  • 2018 Concussion: Yellow Flag
  • 2018 Ankle sprain: Green Flag
    • Simple ankle sprain. Engram played through the injury and did not miss any time.
  • 2018 Hamstring strain: Yellow Flag
    • Recurrent hamstring strains can be a chronic issue in athletes.
  • 2019 MCL sprain: Yellow Flag
    • Knee injuries are something that need to be closely monitored in NFL players, however Engram did not need surgery and was able to return later in 2019.
  • 2019 Lisfranc Injury: Red Flag
    • There is limited data on NFL players with this injury, however the data is in-depth and highly specific. Research suggests Engram could be limited in 2020 and even 2021.

Background Information on Lisfranc Injuries: 

The Lisfranc joint is commonly referred to as the midfoot joint. It is the part of the foot where all the long toe bones (metatarsals) meet the bones that makeup the arch of a person’s foot (cuneiform bones). The midfoot joint is important, specifically in athletes, because it serves as one of the main points of stability in the foot. Without a stable Lisfranc joint, an athlete is unable to push off while running, jumping, cutting, and pivoting.  

 

Foot bones that articulate to form Lisfranc joint.

Dislocation injuries are the most severe type of Lisfranc injury. The dislocation usually involves separation of the first and second metatarsals.

Normal vs. Displaced Lisfranc Joint.

With a dislocation Lisfranc injury in sports, surgical intervention is needed to stabilize the midfoot joint. Typically, stabilization is achieved with a screw surgically inserted into the foot. It is unclear if Evan Engram had a dislocation. He had surgery on 12/20/19 to stabilize his Lisfranc joint. Although his injury was classified as “not a full Lisfranc sprain,” the injury was significant enough to require surgery and would suggest a dislocation. 

Screw placement to stabilize Lisfranc joint after injury.

Athletes who have surgery can play with the screw that is used to stabilize their foot still in place. With that said, running and other dynamic movements with the screw are usually uncomfortable and can result in setbacks/flare ups. We saw these types of flare ups with Ravens wide receiver Marquise Brown in 2019 when he missed 2 games following Lisfranc surgery. 12+ months after surgery, the screw can be removed from the foot with another surgery and outcomes 2 years afterwards are usually better. 

Research and Past Results:

For NFL players who have had  Lisfranc surgery similar to Engram, production afterwards often took a big hit, at least in the short term. Research has shown a significant decline (21% decrease) compared to players’ pre-injury levels the season following a Lisfranc injury [1].

Return to play times vary between 8-14 months. Athletes without surgery are able to return to play much quicker. Typically those who require Lisfranc surgery are looking at least at 10-12 months before they are able to handle the demands of the NFL [1] [2]. 

When looking at NFL players’ durability after a Lisfranc injury for the rest of their career, on average injured players played 5 fewer games compared to healthy control groups [2]. Although the data was not statistically significant, (p-value 0.61) it does show how the pain following Lisfranc injuries can resurface.

These comparisons are not perfect, but below are how a few skill position NFL players performed 1-2 years after Lisfranc injury with surgery:

  • Marquise Brown 2019

Played 59% of team snaps; missed 2 games with ankle injury

  • Santonio Holmes 2012
Average Games Played Pre-InjuryAverage Games Played Post-InjuryPoints Per Game Pre-Injury (PPR)Points Per Game Post-Injury (PPR)
141011.44.5
  • Maurice Jones-Drew 2012
Average Games Played Pre-InjuryAverage Games Played Post-InjuryPoints Per Game Pre-Injury (PPR)Points Per Game Post-Injury (PPR)
1513.517.37.9

Projecting Engram in 2020: 

The timeline of Engram’s surgery is troubling because Week 1 of the NFL season puts Engram at just under 9 months post-op. This is on the shorter end of return to play standards based on the research. This suggests that Engram either A) could miss the first 1-3 weeks of the season, or B) he is returning from his injury way too soon and subsequently at higher risk of re-injury.  

As I stated above, the research shows that for the first 2-3 seasons afterwards, player production dropped on average by 21% [1]. Equating that to Engram’s career fantasy football production, Engram should generate 9.96 PPR fantasy points per game (career average of 12.24 PPR points per game). For reference, 9.96 points per game would mean Engram would have been TE13 in 2019. 

The sample size is small, but for offensive players (excluding linemen) who have recovered from Lisfranc injuries (both surgically and non-surgically), there is a 30% chance Engram plays all 16 games in 2020. It’s worth noting that Engram has never played a full slate of games in his career. The data suggests an 80% chance that he would be able to reach at least 14 games, an achievement Engram has only been able to do once in his career. There is a 90% chance he should be able to play at least 12 games, Engram’s average over his first three seasons in the league. 

Projecting 12-13 games for Engram at a 9.96 points per game pace, he would be slated to finish anywhere from TE16 to TE11 based on tight end fantasy production as a whole over the last three years. Currently Engram is the being drafted as the TE7 in redraft fantasy football leagues. 

Conclusion: 

Looking at all the data available, Evan Engram is a player that carries substantial risk heading into 2020. Considering that he 1) may not be ready for week one, 2) could miss 3-4 games due to another lower body injury, and 3) that his production could decline, you may want to draft another tight end, or at the very least have a contingency plan should Engram become unavailable.

References:

[1] Singh, Sameer K, et al. “Performance-Based Outcomes Following Lisfranc Injury Among Professional American Football and Rugby Athletes.” Orthopedics, SLACK Incorporated, 25 July 2018

[2] McHale KJ;Rozell JC;Milby AH;Carey JL;Sennett BJ; “Outcomes of Lisfranc Injuries in the National Football League.” The American Journal of Sports Medicine, U.S. National Library of Medicine

Atlanta Falcons Offseason Breakdown

Vivek Iyer
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Atlanta Falcons Offseason Breakdown

While the Atlanta Falcons didn’t make massive changes to their offense, their acquisitions and departures should lead to significant fantasy football impacts. The Falcons made a splash move in free agency when they signed Todd Gurley to a one-year, $5.5 million deal after the Rams cut him. They also bolstered their wide receiver depth by signing Laquon Treadwell to a one-year, $910,000 deal. In the draft, the Falcons focused on their defense, with four of their six picks addressing that side of the ball, including Clemson cornerback A.J. Terrell in the first round. Additionally, The Falcons acquired Hayden Hurst from the Ravens after Austin Hooper left to the Browns in free agency. With these changes, it’s worth analyzing the fantasy impacts of their moves and how their players will perform going forward. Let’s examine those impacts in this Atlanta Falcons Offseason Breakdown.

Offense: An Overview

The offensive philosophy in Atlanta should not change drastically, as the head coach, offensive coordinator, and quarterback were all retained from last year. Atlanta led the league in pass attempts this past season by over three pass attempts per game (42.8). Naturally, they ranked bottom three in rush attempts, which makes sense given their lack of efficiency in this area. Atlanta ranked 26th in the league with an average of 3.8 yards per carry (YPC), with their lead back, Devonta Freeman, recording 3.6 YPC. Additionally, their defense finished 29th in sacks and 22nd in points allowed. With their troubles on defense as well as running the ball, it was necessary to be a league leader in pass attempts in order to remain in games. While their run game should improve with the addition of Todd Gurley, he carries substantial injury risk and their backups remain the same as they were last year. The team should remain pass heavy, indicating that pass catchers will be valuable in this offense.

Quarterback

Matt Ryan

Matt Ryan is the forgotten staple of fantasy football. Each year comes and goes, and Matt Ryan is never talked about as someone with high upside. Ryan has been a top-12 QB in fantasy points seven times in his career in 11 attempts, with the last four years yielding the finishes of QB11, QB2, QB15, and QB2. Although the addition of Todd Gurley and a defensive oriented draft might decrease the total number of pass attempts in this offense, Atlanta will likely still remain among the league leaders in this area. With high volume and elite weapons like Julio Jones, Ryan should be valued as a mid-tier QB1 in redraft leagues, close to his ADP as the QB8. In dynasty, Ryan is more of a low-end/fringe QB1.

Running Back

Todd Gurley

What in the world does one do with Todd Gurley? Just two years ago, he was the undisputed #1 running back in football…. This offseason, the Rams cut him from their team. Todd Gurley’s fall from grace was primarily predicated on his knee injury. Our medical expert, Adam Hutchison, doesn’t have optimism that Gurley will remain healthy this season and beyond. Adam believes that Gurley’s plethora of knee issues and the symptoms they cause are the result of early-onset osteoarthritis (OA). Studies have shown that people who suffer an ACL tear are more likely to develop OA ten years after their original injury. An ACL tear results in a physiological alteration of the knee itself, impairing neuromuscular patterns of muscle groups around the knee joint, specifically the quadriceps. This is also the muscle that Gurley strained in 2019. Unfortunately, there is no cure for osteoarthritis, and although it can be managed, it will never vanish completely.

That said, Gurley is still in a strong offense with an offensive line that added PFF’s highest graded center in college football last year with Matt Hennessy out of Temple. Offensive line woes plagued the Rams in 2019, with PFF grading their unit as the 2nd worst in the league, dropping from 6th best in 2018. This was evident in Gurley’s decline in production, as he was tackled behind the line of scrimmage 21% of the time in 2019, a 6% increase from the prior season.

Credit: @AlexRollinsNFL

With Chris Lindstrom, a former first round selection, hoping to be healthy this season after playing in only 5 games in 2019, their offensive line play seems poised to take a step forward, benefiting their run game. Gurley has been heavily used in the red zone as well, ranking top three in red zone attempts in each of the past three years, and also ranking number one in rushing attempts within the 10 and 5-yard lines in 2017 and 2018. Although this dropped off slightly in 2019, he still ranked within the top 5 in attempts within the 10-yard line and top 10 in attempts within the 5-yard line. Gurley’s receiving work should rebound from last year’s abysmal average of around 2 receptions per game as well, and these factors should make him a strong RB2 in redraft leagues. Due to his injury risk, age, and lack of long-term contract stability, he should be significantly downgraded in dynasty rankings.

The Other Running Backs

As of now, the Falcons depth chart lists Ito Smith as the backup to Gurley with Brian Hill and Qadree Ollison behind them. Although Ito is the current backup to the injury prone Gurley, he still doesn’t rank as a top handcuff due to his lack of efficiency. There is a chance that Ito will be surpassed by others on the depth chart, however their backups as a whole have either shown poor efficiency or only have a small sample size to extrapolate from. With that said, these backs should be on the dynasty radar, with Ito Smith deserving to be owned in dynasty leagues for now, given Gurley’s injury concerns. For redraft, Ito Smith is an interesting deep-league addition, especially for the Todd Gurley owner.

Wide Receiver

Julio Jones

Julio Jones is simply one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He has been selected to 6 straight pro bowls, finishing first-team All-Pro twice in his career. Julio hasn’t shown a decline in production despite his age (31), hauling in 99 receptions for 1,394 yards last season. He finished as the overall WR3 in PPR leagues in both total points and points per game in 15 games played. Although Julio has a reputation of frequently being injured, his injuries don’t tend to keep him out of games, evidenced by him playing in 14 games or more every season for the past six years. Julio is a top-tier WR1 in redraft leagues, and a low end WR1 in dynasty due to his age.

Calvin Ridley

Calvin Ridley is a popular breakout candidate in the fantasy football community. I believe that Ridley will succeed this year and live up to some of the hype, however not surpassing Julio in their wide receiver corps quite yet. Ridley has been an efficient red zone threat so far in his career, demanding the respect of defenses. He is second in the league in cushion distance, which is the distance afforded to him by his assigned defender, as Ridley can break off long plays at a moment’s notice. Matt Ryan was substantially better when targeting Ridley compared to other receivers, as his season-long QB rating of 92.1 rose to 113.4 when targeting him, a 21.3 point difference. Ridley finished last year as the WR27 in PPR leagues in 13 games played and was the WR19 in points per game. I expect Ridley to take another step forward in his third season, becoming an early-mid tier WR2 for redraft leagues and a solid WR2 in dynasty.

Ridley’s footwork and field awareness are exceptional, allowing him to remain in bounds on this catch against the Texans.

Russell Gage

Russell Gage is one of the most underrated wide receivers in fantasy football. This is not to say, by any means, that he will be a top-tier asset. He should be valued as a solid depth piece that is worth far more than his ADP of WR107 in PPR leagues though. This is after receivers such as Paul Richardson (unsigned), Jehu Chesson (Jets), Devin Smith (Dallas), Trent Sherfield (Arizona), and more. Last year, after Mohammad Sanu was traded in Week 8, Gage was on pace for 80 receptions over 16 games, which would have finished as the WR15 in receptions (for perspective, Julio had 99 catches). Additionally, his 16-game pace after the trade would have yielded 164.4 PPR points, finishing as the WR39 last year. This would rank ahead Diontae Johnson, who is receiving considerable hype as a sleeper this offseason. Furthermore, Gage only had one touchdown in that stretch, which makes him a candidate for positive regression. Gage is still the #3 wide receiver in Atlanta’s offense after they chose not to draft a wide receiver to fill that role, thus giving him opportunity to succeed. Gage should be valued as someone who can fill in as a flex level play in redraft leagues, with a downgrade in dynasty leagues due to long-term uncertainty.

Laquon Treadwell

Laquon Treadwell is an example of wide receiver evaluation gone wrong. A former first round pick, Treadwell has not lived up to any semblance of former expectations. He signed with the Falcons for a one-year deal in the offseason, and will likely compete for a depth spot on the roster behind Jones and Ridley. Treadwell is irrelevant in both redraft and dynasty leagues.

Tight End

Hayden Hurst

Hayden Hurst is the starting tight end in Atlanta after the departure of Austin Hooper in free agency. Hurst is a former first round pick by the Ravens, but he was outshone by their third round pick from the same year, Mark Andrews. Although Hurst has underperformed relative to expectations in his first two seasons in the league, Hurst’s draft capital and price to acquire him in trade (Atlanta paid a 2nd and 5th for Hurst and a 4th) imply that he will play an important role in this offense. With 97 vacated targets from Hooper across 13 games, Hurst has the opportunity to succeed at a high level for fantasy. I project him to have fewer targets and receptions than Hooper last year by a sizable amount, especially given that COVID-19 will effectively shorten the offseason. Still, he should slightly outperform his TE13 ADP, finishing as a low-end TE1 in redraft leagues this season. In dynasty leagues, Hurst should be treated as a high-end TE2.

Final Thoughts

In an offseason shortened by COVID-19, the Falcons didn’t make extensive changes to their offensive skill position players or coaching staff this year, which should bode well for the team fantasy-wise next season. The addition of Todd Gurley to the offense should bolster their weak run game, overall making the offense more proficient. Led by stars such as Julio Jones and Matt Ryan, the Falcons offense should be a strong one for fantasy purposes next year, with startable options at each offensive skill position.

On The Trend | RB1s Over the Last 20 Years

Kayne Rob
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On The Trend | RB1s Over the Last 20 Years

Over the last few months, I have taken a deep dive into the trends that can be seen across RB1s over the last two decades. My goal is to help dynasty GMs evaluate potential value points for expectations of running backs you may be drafting or trading for; especially when trying to hit big or consider longevity on rebuilding/contending teams. 

Parameters

Before we jump in, I want to define a few things ahead of time of what this article is and is not. This article is an analysis of common trends seen within fantasy football’s top scoring running backs over the course of a 20-year time span. This article will help define commonalities of RBs to help you draft the next RB1 that follows some of these trends. This article will also help you identify who is a one-hit wonder you can trade at prime value. What this article is not, is a predictive model defining who will be an RB1 in 2020. For predictive models and analytics of that nature, I would refer you to our in-house genius @BlakeAHampton. He definitely has you covered.

Now let’s jump in!

First off, in this write up I will be referring to RB1s very frequently. Since 12-team leagues seem to be the standard team size, we are defining an RB1 as a top-12 finish at the running back position in each given year. Secondly, all rankings and positional finishes in this article are using the Half-PPR format in hopes of finding the most consistency across users of all formats. Taking a look at 20 years of top-12 running back finishes gives us a total of 240 RB1s. When factoring in players that show up multiple times on this list, it gives us a final total of 101 total RBs that finished as RB1s from 2000-2019. Of these 101 RB1s, 17 are not included in every aspect of my study due to them being drafted prior to 2000, therefore not allowing me to collect the full data of their early years. These 17 were drafted between 1992-1999. So from this point forward when I reference “All RB1s” it will be inclusive of all 101 RB1s, and when I refer to the “full data group” it will be in reference to 84 RB1s (not including the aforementioned 17).

With all clarifications now established, let’s get into the nitty gritty.

The Average RB1

Many fantasy GMs are quick to write off a running back due to age, but is there any validity to these seemingly rash decisions? The answer is slightly. Of the 240 RB1 finishes in the 20 year time span, only 16 of the finishes were made by someone 30 or older (a very poor 6% hit rate). The oldest age overall was 32, done by 5 different backs (Frank Gore, DeAngelo Williams, Fred Jackson, Thomas Jones, and Ricky Williams). Of those 5 running backs, the highest age-32 rank was an RB4 finish by DeAngelo Williams. The top running back finish of any age 30+ RB was Adrian Peterson at age 30, finishing as the RB2 in 2015 (outside of him the highest rank was RB4 by multiple RBs). In sum, there can be production at 30 and above, but it is a rarity.

Below is a summary of the “average” numbers seen across the RB1s over the last 20 years.

Age: 25.33 years old

Rush Attempts: 273

Receptions: 48

Total Touchdowns: 11.85 (both rushing & receiving combined)

College Dominator Score: 33.62

Round Breakdown: Significance of Draft Capital

Draft capital does tend to show some significant importance towards RB1s over the years. I am by no means saying round 1 picks are the only way to go, or that busts do not happen, but a large trend of the majority of RB1s is having a draft capital of round 3 or earlier. As seen below, day 1 & day 2 running backs have accounted for nearly 70% of RB1s since the year 2000. 

The breakdown of RB1s falls in line with draft capital as well, with the largest number of RB1s coming from round 1 and that number steadily decreasing round by round (as seen in the table below). 

Undrafted free agents (UDFA) are the wildcard in all this, with the same hit rate as the 4th round, granted the pool is likely a lot larger as well. In fact, UDFA have had almost an equal hit rate as the running backs drafted in the 5th, 6th, and 7th rounds combined. Yet the 5th round-UDFA only accounts for 20% of RB1s in the top 12 over the past 20 years.

As we’ve seen draft capital does seem to actually matter, but the more imperative questions are the following: Where are these running backs landing within the top 12 compared to their draft capital? Are the lower round guys only making it into the back end of the top 12, or is it pretty diverse overall? 

Taking a look at the chart below, you will see that the spread is fairly even throughout the first 4 rounds. The 5th round has some sprinkled success (top-2 finishes from Michael Turner & Aaron Jones) but mostly generated lower-end finishes. Then the 6th and 7th rounds have mainly sputtered success although Peyton Hills had one giant outlier season. Undrafted is where there has been an even spread again but the higher success can at least partially be attributed to a larger pool of candidates.

In sum, when buying or considering running backs in trades or even in your rookie drafts, don’t over-analyze it, but at least consider the capital. If you’re trying to take a swing on someone that could one day fill the RB1 mold, this is one trend to keep in mind.

Multi-Season RB1s: Generational Talent or Time to Trade?

How long do running backs put up elite seasons? How many seasons are there before we see a drop off? These were some of the main questions that got me into this study. We’ve seen so many people write on the peak ages of running back production, but there are always those elite outliers that shatter those peaks. So I was searching for another outlook of potential slowdown that the elite backs may show that pairs well with the age info in consideration.

The most elite RB1s during this time frame are Adrian Peterson and LaDanian Tomlinson, both posting a total of 8 RB1 seasons. Although I do not have the exact data prior to 2000, I believe the only other backs to put up 8+ seasons are Marshall Faulk, Emmitt Smith, Walter Payton, and Barry Sanders; that’s it! Actually getting 4+ seasons as an RB1 is an accomplishment in itself. Only 21 of the 101 total running backs finished as an RB1 4+ times (non-consecutively.)

Below is a breakdown of RB1s number of finishes within our 20 year time span:

Most RB1 finishes since 2000

In our full data group, 52% of the RB1s (44 of 84) accomplished the feat at least twice. Adding in our 17 running backs with partial data, we saw that percentage increase to around 57% (57 of 101). Yet, a large percent of these multi-season RB1s are still those higher-capital running backs. Taking a deeper look at  draft capital in combination with multi-season RB1s brought along some useful insights in our trend analysis. Draft capital seemed to only further corroborate that running backs drafted after day 2 have a very slim chance at top RB1 opportunity, especially on a repeated occurrence. Represented below is the entirety of running backs with multiple RB1 finishes that were drafted in the 4th round or later within our time frame.

RB1s w/ Multiple Finishes Drafted Round 4 or Later

4th: Rudi Johnson( 3); Devonta Freeman (2); Lamar Miller (2); Stephen Davis (2)

5th: Michael Turner (3); Jordan Howard (2)

6th: N/A

7th: N/A

Undrafted: Arian Foster (4); Priest Holmes (3)

That’s right, only 8 of 101 RB1s were drafted round 4 or later and finished in the top 12 more than once. Of the 57 multi-season RB1s, only 14% have a draft capital of later than day 2. Draft capital truly does matter not only toward having the opportunity to produce RB1-type numbers, but it also helps us to weigh the outlier status of a running back. Perhaps we should  trade away those late round breakouts for more talent. For example, if you didn’t ship out Phillip Lindsay for prime value after his rookie year, you likely missed out on his best opportunity of return value. This is easy to say looking back, but having this data now will allow you to move on from these types quicker in the future. The time to ship Chris Carson is likely now (even with the injury knocking his value a bit.) Another guy that falls into this category at the moment is Austin Ekeler, whom I will take a deeper look at shortly.

Time to Achieve Breakout (Top 12) Season

In this section, we take a look at how long does it typically take for RB1s to reach the top 12, i.e. a breakout season? As well, are there hit rates that indicate greater longevity? When looking at RB1s that have shown up in the top 12 multiple years, normally these running backs will land in the top 12 within their first 3 years in the NFL. This next section will be taking a closer look at pictures of the data I have collected to help sum up these findings.

(Data below refers to “Full Data RBs”. Data shows as player, # of times in top 12, and which season of their career they landed in the top 12 for the first time)

For RBs who have been an RB1 two or three times, (either thus far or total) we see that most have broken through in their first three years. There are a couple that broke through in years four & five (Rudi Johnson & Michael Turner) but they seem to be more of an anomaly, if anything. 

RB1s with two or three top 12 finishes since 2000 and their breakout season.

Yet when you step it up another level to that elite four or more seasons, you really only see players that are breaking out in their first two years. Even the current younger guys that look on par to break into this elite group (Saquon, CMC, Kamara, Fournette) tend to follow this trend as well. Even Brian Westbrook seems to be an outlier at 3 years until breakout (see below.)

RB1s with four or more top 12 finishes since 2000 and their breakout season.

On the flip side, it’s no surprise that many of the running backs that took 4 or more seasons to hit were usually one-hit wonders. 

RB1s and their number of finishes who had their break-out season after four or more seasons in the league.

My real interest in this range lies with Derrick Henry, who is entering his age 26 season and just broke out in year 4. It seems with his touches and opportunity he is built to join the anomaly group, but the age threshold paired with breakout year, plus not having a longer contract, only on franchise tender, worries me. It seems to point towards a possibly shorter stint as an RB1; my guess may be one more season of truly elite RB1 status, which feels wrong even typing.

Breaking out in year three seems to be the real coin flip. Of the non-active players with a year three breakout, 5 of 12 have turned in multiple RB1 seasons. 

RB1s and their number of finishes who had their breakout season after three seasons in the league.

The active players are where it also gets interesting, with guys like Aaron Jones, Chris Carson, Austin Ekeler, Dalvin Cook, Nick Chubb, and Lamar Miller. This is where the other factors we have already discussed, paired with opportunity and investment, may help you come to your own conclusion on whether or not to continue buying in on these running backs and their top-tier potential. 

My takes on these backs are as follows:

Dalvin Cook: Hold; He has at least a few more RB1 seasons in him. The opportunity, talent, and capital all point toward more top-tier success.

Nick Chubb: Hold; Similar to Dalvin, the talent, opportunity, & capital are there. Stefanski should only help.

Aaron Jones: Hold for now; Best trade opportunity was before the draft. He still has the lead back opportunity in GB, and you can likely get higher value mid-season after a big game.

Chris Carson: Trade him for value while you still can; The injury risk knocks him, but you can still get good value.

Austin Ekeler: Trade; I think his hype is high at the moment. His low capital, later breakout, and pass catching focus is all working against him. Seems more like Danny Woodhead than CMC to me. You can probably pull a package with a younger guy (2020 rookie, Jacobs, Sanders.)

Conclusion

Data doesn’t lie and is solely objective; analyzing the trends presented to us over the years is one tool we can try to implement in our strategic efforts to get ahead of the curve. There will always be outliers and busts, but arming yourself with the foundations and historical context that is in front of us allows us to plan and execute our teams as fantasy managers. The swings that miss will feel foolish, but the ones that hit will feel oh so sweet.

Deebo Samuel | Jones Fracture Analysis

Adam Hutchison
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Deebo Samuel | Jones Fracture Analysis

Why can’t we have nice things? Football season hasn’t even officially started yet, and already we have an injury to an ascending star in the NFL: Deebo Samuel. On Tuesday, Samuel fractured his left foot, putting the start to his 2020 season in jeopardy. Deebo’s left foot injury is referred to as Jones Fracture, and it can sometimes be a difficult injury to come back from. Below I will explain what a Jones Fracture is and how this could impact Deebo’s 2020 season. 

What is a Jones Fracture?

The Jones Fracture is specific to the 5th metatarsal (toe bone) and is located at the proximal (base) of the bone closed to the heel. 

 

Picture depicting Jones Fracture location

 

The mechanism of injury for this type of fracture typically happens when a person’s foot is plantar flexed (toes pointed downward) and ankle is inverted (pointing in). 

Mechanism of injury for Jones Fracture

 

If you feel along the outside of your foot and run your fingers from your pinky toe back towards your heel, you can feel a bony protuberance on the outside of your foot. This is the base of your 5th metatarsal. As you probably noticed, this bony structure is prominent and there is not a lot of padding around this area of your foot. Because this area is exposed, the base of the 5th metatarsal can be easily fractured when you land on the outside of your foot. The prominence of this area is often why flare ups can occur post-injury and surgery, which I will address later on. 

Jones Fracture Research in the NFL: 

There have been a couple of studies published over recent years that track NFL player performance following a Jones Fracture. 

[1] A study by Robert Spang, MD et. al examined a sample of 40 collegiate athletes between 2009 and 2015 who sustained a Jones Fracture and went on to play in the NFL. Although the data was not statistically significant, on average players with a previous Jones fracture performed worse within the first 2 years in the NFL compared to a healthy control group. The lack of statistical significance means there could have been other variables contributing to the dip in performance other than the Jones Fracture. Looking specifically at WRs (sample of 14) the study did show that WRs with a Jones Fracture played fewer snaps (snap percentage 17.5% ± 26.4%) compared to the control group (snap percentage 53.0 % ± 25.4%). This data was statistically significant (p-value = 0.03). 

[2] Research by Selene G. Parekh, MD, MBA and, Jay Shah found that when NFL players tried to come back from their Jones Fracture too soon (prior to 10 weeks) the risk of re-injury was much higher than those who returned to play later than 10 weeks. Additionally, those NFL players who resumed play prior to 10 weeks saw a decrease in overall performance. Specifically, re-injury rate was 20% with a 53.2% performance reduction for the early return to play group, compared to only a 9% re-injury rate and 9.4% performance reduction in the >10 week group. Although the sample size was small, the research here suggests that NFL players should wait at minimum 10 weeks prior to resuming football activities. 

[3] Finally, research published from Craig R. Lareau, MD, Andrew R. Hsu, MD and Robert B. Anderson, MD (the surgeon who performed the surgery on Deebo Samuel’s left foot) demonstrated quicker recovery times (average of 8.7 weeks) for NFL players, however the WRs tested had a longer return to play timeline of ~11 weeks. Re-fracture rates were low at 12%. 

So What Does This Mean for Deebo?

Based on the research that I highlighted above, I feel it’s fair to project 10 weeks for Deebo’s return to football activities. Although it is promising that the surgeon (Robert Anderson) performing Samuel’s surgery published work showing return to play in under 9 weeks, other research has suggested it is optimal to wait slightly longer. This would also align with the timelines being suggested on NFL Network and Twitter. 

For Deebo Samuel, 10 weeks post surgery would be August 27th. San Francisco’s first regular season (assuming it starts on time) is September 13th, roughly 2.5 weeks after Deebo would theoretically be cleared to return. The reports that emerge the next 6 weeks are going to be very telling if Deebo Samuel will start 2020 on the PUP. If Deebo has not resumed running by week 7 or 8 (July 30th-August 8th) then I believe there is a good chance he will start the season on the reserve PUP and miss the first 6 weeks of the season. Given the circumstances with Deebo being a young/promising prospect, the 49ers are going to want to minimize the risk of re-injury. I think there is a decent chance San Fran holds him back and puts him on the reserve PUP. 

Based on my clinical experience rehabbing Jones Fractures, there is a chance that fantasy managers with Deebo on their team are going to be frustrated. The surgery for Jones Fracture involves using hardware to stabilize the fracture site via a screw. With a screw in Deebo’s foot, there is a chance he experiences irritation/inflammation during the season. There is a chance he pops up on a lot of injury reports and is listed as a game-time decision multiple weeks. The 49ers may also limit Samuel’s snap % for the first half of the season. Limiting his workload would match up with the study I cited above, “Jones Fractures Identified at the National Football League Scouting Combine: Assessment of Prognostic Factors, Computed Tomography Findings, and Initial Career Performance” [1]. 

Manage expectations with Deebo in 2020, because there could be a lot of peaks and valleys due to the uncertainty surrounding a Jones Fracture. The 6-8 week mark could be very telling for how the 2020 season is going to go. Hopefully by then you will have some clarity in time for your 2020 fantasy football draft.

References:

[1] Spang, R. C., Haber, D. B., Beaulieu-Jones, B., Stupay, K., Sanchez, G., Whalen, J. M., Provencher, M. T. (2018). Jones Fractures Identified at the National Football League Scouting Combine: Assessment of Prognostic Factors, Computed Tomography Findings, and Initial Career Performance. Orthopaedic Journal of Sports Medicine, 6(7_suppl4). doi:10.1177/2325967118s00129

[2] Parekh, S., & Shah, J. (2017). Optimal time to return to play and performance after Jones fracture surgery in the National Football League (NFL) players. Foot and Ankle Surgery, 23, 34. doi:10.1016/j.fas.2017.07.186

[3] Lareau, C. R., Hsu, A. R., & Anderson, R. B. (2015). Return to Play in National Football League Players After Operative Jones Fracture Treatment. Foot & Ankle International, 37(1), 8-16. doi:10.1177/1071100715603983

Devil’s Advocate | Austin Hooper

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Devil’s Advocate | Austin Hooper

Every NFL season, there are a number of players that gain massive hype and shoot up Fantasy Football draft boards, only to disappoint because expectations were too high. Conversely, there’s a similar group of players who fall in fantasy drafts and become late-round steals. My goal of this series is to look past the popular sentiment, share some statistics, and offer a contrarian opinion for you to consider before drafting a player too early or fading someone too hard in your 2020 Fantasy Football drafts.

The Subject: Austin Hooper – TE, Cleveland Browns

Austin Hooper had his true breakout season in 2019, but because of late-season injuries and the emergence of other tight ends like Mark Andrews and Darren Waller, his success has been overshadowed. Despite becoming the highest-paid tight end in the league by signing with the Cleveland Browns back in March, many analysts are fading Hooper based on his situation. As of June 3rd, he is currently ranked as the TE9 in PPR for 2020 based on FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings, and his ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator has his stock fading even further…

Given all the negative sentiment I’ve seen towards Hooper’s fantasy outlook in 2020, I thought I’d use this Devil’s Advocate to spin toward the positive and share some reasons why Austin Hooper could end up being a value pick in your 2020 drafts…

Per fantasydata.com, Austin Hooper was the TE6 in PPR scoring in 2019 with 191.7 points.

This was 24.2 PPR points more than the TE7 Jared Cook. Hooper achieved this number on only 13 games played. His 16-game pace for 2019 had him earning 230.9 PPR points, which would have made him the TE2 in 2019, behind Travis Kelce and above George Kittle.

Fantasy managers might see this as a an aberration for Hooper, but in 2018, he also finished as the TE6 with 163 PPR points, which would have made him the TE8 in 2019.

Per Pro Football Reference, Austin Hooper has improved in targets, receptions, and yards per game (YPG) every year of his career.

Austin Hooper’s career statistics, via profootballreference.com

Generally speaking, seeing an NFL player’s stats increase year over year is a good thing. Especially with what we know about how it takes new tight ends in the NFL time to develop and find their role in an offense, I find Hooper’s growth to be nothing other than promising for his future outlook.

Austin Hooper’s career catch rate of 77.3% leads all tight ends with a minimum 100 career receptions. In 2019, Hooper had just one drop on 97 targets.

While it was included in the chart above, I want to highlight catch rate as something that is going to particularly help Hooper on his new team in Cleveland. Per footballdb.com, The Browns were in the bottom 25% in total first downs, bottom half in passing first downs, and bottom half in third down efficiency. There are a multitude of factors that go into how the Browns struggled last year, but I believe if you are paying a player $44 million and making them the highest-paid at their position, you plan to use them in ways that will improve those team metrics. Hooper is a target you can trust on third down, and his reliability is going to keep the Browns on the field and increase their number of scoring opportunities.

At 25 years old and heading into his age-26 season, Austin Hooper is in the prime of his career.

As previously mentioned, it takes a couple years before tight end prospects truly become productive in the NFL, and it’s our job as analysts to identify who has made the leap into top receiving tight end status, as well as who will make that leap in the coming years.

Age Production Curve for Tight Ends

Based on the chart above created by our Director of Analytics @BlakeAHampton, the average tight end’s best years for fantasy production are 25 & 26. Austin Hooper is thriving in his prime age range right now, and I don’t expect a change in situation to take that prime away from him.

Verdict

Because of his superior catch rate, Hooper comes in as an immediately reliable target for Baker Mayfield in a number of situations, particularly on third down and in the red zone. Between Hooper’s catching ability and new Head Coach Kevin Stefanski’s ability to design separation via play action, I’m confident in the opportunity available for Hooper to have the impact we come to expect from him this fantasy season.

I’m not going crazy and reaching for Hooper in the middle rounds, given we do expect the Browns will be a run-heavy team. But with the tight end landscape appearing to break out into A) elite players that you must invest top draft capital in, and B) late-round breakout candidates that could just as easily bust, Hooper provides a happy medium of proven talent and production for a reasonable price. Right now, Hooper is the value no one is talking about.

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