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Carolina Panthers Offseason Breakdown

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June 16, 2020

The Panthers started their offseason with a plethora of QB changes, signaling the end of the Cam Newton era in Carolina. The Panthers signed former Saints and Vikings quarterback Teddy Bridgewater to a three-year deal worth $63 million, albeit with a potential out in two years for $5 million in dead cap. They then traded Kyle Allen to Washington, as Allen disappointed last year filling in for the injured Cam Newton. They then signed P.J. Walker of the XFL to be the backup to Bridgewater. With these signings, it is clear that Cam Newton will not be resigned, and he is still waiting on an offer to be (likely) a backup in 2020. The Panthers made it a priority to extend their centerpiece, Christian McCaffrey, to a four-year deal worth upwards of $64 million, making him the highest paid running back in NFL history. Greg Olsen left the team in free agency, signing with the Seattle Seahawks for a one-year, $7 million deal to compete for the starting job and mentor their TE core. In the draft, the Panthers addressed their defensive needs, drafting defensive players with each of their picks. These extensive personnel changes continue with the hire of Matt Rhule to be the head coach of the Panthers, signing him to a seven-year contract worth $62 million. The Panthers then signed former LSU passing game coordinator Joe Brady to be their new offensive coordinator, pairing him with Phil Snow as their defensive coordinator. With all of these changes, the fantasy ramifications are enormous. Let’s examine the impacts for 2020 and beyond in this Carolina Panthers Offseason Breakdown.

Offense: An Overview

With the change at head coach from Ron Rivera to Matt Rhule, the offense should play a larger role in the team’s success. Rhule emphasizes physicality and the importance of a solid running game, boding well for Christian McCaffrey. Joe Brady should be the primary play-caller in this offense, and although he employed a deep, dynamic passing attack at LSU, this could change in the NFL. As Brady claimed, “We have to find what our guys do well and put them in the best position to have success. Let’s find what they do well and do what they do well.” A likely offensive philosophy is looking for short- to mid-range plays given Bridgewater’s proficiency in the area and McCaffrey’s effectiveness on screens/short passes.

Quarterback

Teddy Bridgewater

Teddy Bridgewater received his opportunity in 2019 and showed the NFL that he could still be a starter. In weeks 2-7 (Brees exited Week 2 early with a torn ligament in his thumb), Bridgewater posted a 67.6 completion percentage with 9 touchdowns to only 2 turnovers and a 16-game pace of 3,653 passing yards, the highest such pace of his career. Before his time with the Saints, Bridgewater succeeded with the Vikings, becoming a pro-bowler in 2015 before suffering a non-contact ACL tear and knee dislocation that reportedly could have led to amputation. Despite this potential career-ending injury, Bridgewater returned, and has regained a starting job in the league. Although he is a massive upgrade from Kyle Allen and he has weapons like CMC and D.J. Moore on his new team, Bridgewater isn’t much more than a game manager, and thus will likely stick to his strengths of facilitating in the short and intermediate game. The Panthers’ defense was addressed in the draft, but the unit still needs more work, as it ranked 31st in scoring defense and was the worst defense against the run in the league in terms of rushing touchdowns (31 allowed) and yards per rushing attempt (5.2 YPC). This should mean more passing attempts for Bridgewater. For fantasy, Bridgewater should be a valued as a low end QB 2 in both dynasty and redraft leagues.

P.J. Walker

P.J. Walker was one of the XFL’s standouts, with 15 passing touchdowns and 4 interceptions over the five game season. Walker averaged nearly 270 passing yards per game, albeit against weaker defenses. His strong performances sparked NFL interest, and he eventually signed for two years and $1.565 million with the Panthers. P.J. is irrelevant for redraft leagues, but could be a deep SF/2QB stash in dynasty leagues, as Bridgewater is not necessarily irreplaceable if he falters.

Cam Newton

When the Panthers signed Bridgewater to a starting-level contract, it was clear that the Cam Newton era in Carolina had ended. With the COVID-19 pandemic preventing in-person visits, teams could not check Cam Newton’s injury status, a factor that likely contributed to him being unsigned as of now. At this stage, Cam will likely sign a one-year deal as a backup, looking to return to being a starter in 2021. For now, he is off the radar in redraft leagues, but is a definite hold in dynasty SF/2QB leagues, as he could return to being a starting QB after this season.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey put up historical numbers last year, totaling 2,392 all-purpose yards from scrimmage with over 1,000 rushing and receiving yards each (1,387 and 1,005 respectively). Additionally, he caught the second most receptions in the league at any position, with 116 receptions on 142 targets. McCaffrey was the absolute workhorse in Carolina last year, totaling 403 touches. This would rank 41st in NFL history in terms of touches in a season, however the only player with more touches in a season that is still playing is Le’Veon Bell. Running backs simply don’t get as much work anymore, as evidenced by the running back by committee (RBBC) approach taken by many teams around the league. While his touches should decrease to a more sustainable number, McCaffrey is still the undisputed RB1 in both redraft and dynasty leagues, and should be taken as the 1.01 in 1QB leagues. With McCaffrey’s record-breaking four-year contract extension, he has the contract security that is becoming invaluable in dynasty for running backs, furthering his case as the #1 asset.

Reggie Bonnafon

Reggie Bonnafon has no standalone value as the backup to CMC and is only a handcuff. While other handcuffs are worth rostering in redraft leagues because of their potential league-winning upside (e.g. Kareem Hunt (who also has standalone value), Latavius Murray, Alexander Mattison, Tony Pollard, etc.), Bonnafon is not in that same tier. He does not have to be owned in redraft leagues, although the CMC owner should keep an eye on him on the waiver wire. He is a stash in dynasty leagues though, since benches are typically deeper and running backs are scarce.

Mike Davis

Mike Davis is the third-string running back on the Carolina Panthers’ depth chart, and thus is irrelevant for redraft and dynasty leagues. He will try to compete for the backup role, however as of now Bonnafon is still their second-string back.

Wide Receiver

D.J. Moore

D.J. Moore is the darling of the fantasy community, with many analysts and players alike expecting a Chris Godwin-type breakout season from him this year. To be clear, I don’t expect this level of success, however I do think he will be a valuable asset this year. Moore finished as the WR16 in 15 games last season, a remarkable achievement given that this was his sophomore season and his quarterback was Kyle Allen, who PFF ranked LAST among all starting QBs in the NFL, even behind Mason Rudolph of the Pittsburgh Steelers. He posted the sixth-highest contested catch percentage at 55.6% and was top ten in yards after the catch (YAC). His top-tier athleticism and 98th percentile breakout age made him an intriguing prospect coming into the league, and he has validated the hype. Moore should be valued as a WR1 in dynasty, and a fringe WR1 in redraft leagues with an upgrade in PPR formats.

Curtis Samuel

Curtis Samuel was disappointing last year for fantasy. Throughout last offseason, Samuel was touted as potentially the most valuable WR in Carolina, however he didn’t pan out. Samuel finished as the WR36 in PPR leagues last year, and was the WR49 in terms of fantasy points per game (FFPPG). While Samuel has top-end speed, shown by his 100th percentile 40-yard dash, his YAC ranks 74th in the league. This, combined with him ranking 94th in yards per target (YPT) means that he wasn’t able to consistently find holes in the defense and exploit them with his speed on short passing routes. In comparison, Tyreek Hill (who is also a speed demon that aims to break away with his speed) ranked 2nd in YAC in his last 16 game season (2018). This year, Samuel will face more competition for downfield targets with Robby Anderson in town, however if Samuel’s utilization follows last year’s data, the onus will fall on him to break free from the defense and create plays for himself. Samuel should be treated as a lower-end WR5 with upside in redraft leagues, and should receive an upgrade in dynasty leagues due to his age and talent.

Robby Anderson

Former Jets WR Robby Anderson was signed to a two-year, $20 million deal with the Panthers this offseason. Robby Anderson is a deep threat, evidenced by his top 10 ranking in average depth of target (aDOT) over the past two years. Anderson has shown flashes at times, however has not been consistent enough to sustain top-tier production, with his best year coming in 2017 with 200 PPR points (WR18). Anderson should be valued as a WR5 with upside in redraft leagues, and a low end WR5 in dynasty leagues.

Tight End

Ian Thomas

With the departure of Greg Olsen, Ian Thomas is now the starting tight end in Carolina. Thomas is an athletic prospect that has been relatively disappointing so far in his NFL career. Despite injuries to Olsen in the past, Thomas has never been able to capitalize for fantasy. He is an intriguing dynasty stash especially in TE premium leagues, however for non-premium redraft leagues he is best left on the waiver wire (but keep a close eye on him).

Final Thoughts

The Carolina Panthers completely overturned their QB room this offseason, bringing in Teddy Bridgewater as the starter and P.J. Walker as his backup. This marked the end of the Cam Newton (and Greg Olsen) era in Carolina, with Cam still seeking employment. Overall, the offense should improve from last year, with studs such as CMC and D.J. Moore leading the way. Combined with their defensive-oriented draft, the Panthers should be a much improved team from last season.

Brandin Cooks | Concussion History

Adam Hutchison

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June 12, 2020

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Brandin Cooks enters 2020 in an interesting position. He is currently slated as a late-5th/early-6th round pick in fantasy football redraft leagues (a top-30 WR). 2020 is by far the latest Cooks is being drafted in recent years. The main reason for his dip is obvious: it’s his concussion history. The positives for Cooks are that he is now on a team with a more accurate and better overall quarterback in Deshaun Watson, and inferior competition compared to his two seasons in Los Angeles.

The recent stream of concussions has me worried, and I explain why in this write-up. Cooks can still be a value in fantasy football drafts, but just make sure you understand the risk that comes along with drafting him.

Concussion History:

2015 with New Orleans Saints – Unspecified concussion. Cooks did not miss any time.
2018 with New England Patriots – Concussion in Super Bowl LII.
2018 with Los Angeles Rams, week 5 @ Seattle Seahawks – Left game but returned in week 6. Video suggests brief loss of consciousness.
2019 with Los Angeles Rams, week 5 @ Seattle Seahawks – Left game but returned in week 6.
2019, week 8 vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Left game and missed two more weeks before returning in week 12.

Cooks’ worst concussions by far were both against Seattle in 2018 and 2019 because the game tape suggests that Cooks lost consciousness. A 2001 article published by James Kelly, MD (who worked with the Chicago Bears) highlighted how these concussions can affect an athlete’s return to play timeline [1].

Concussion Grade and corresponding Time to Return to Play

Rate of Recurrence:

Multiple medical journals have published studies that prove that once a player sustains a concussion, their risk of getting another concussion increases. A study by Guskiewicez et al. showed that among 4,251 college football players, those who suffered 3 or more concussions were 3 times more likely to sustain another concussion than those without any history of that injury [2]. This certainly applies to Cooks, who to this date has five documented concussions in the NFL. Additionally, another study focusing on concussions in high school athletes found that “athletes sustaining recurrent concussions had longer symptom resolution times, were kept out of play longer, and reported loss of consciousness more frequently than athletes sustaining new concussions” [3].

Correlation Between Elevation and Concussions:

The last piece of research that is working against Brandin Cooks was a study I found from JOSPT in 2014. The results of this study showed “the odds of a concussion were 30% lower when playing at a higher elevation”[4]. Based on a national average, the cutoff point for high elevation was 644 feet above sea level. For reference, Cooks’ new home field, NRG Stadium in Houston, only sits about 49 feet above sea level. Although this may seem like it would be inconsequential, there appears to be some significance to it when we look at Cook’s past concussions.

2015 – unspecified
2018 Super Bowl LII – U.S Bank Stadium, Minneapolis. Elevation: 853 feet above sea level
2018 at CenturyLink Field, Seattle. Elevation: 16 feet above sea level
2019 at CenturyLink Field, Seattle. Elevation: 16 feet above sea level
2019 at Wembley Stadium, London. Elevation: 148 feet above sea level

Of the four concussions I was able to pin down the location, three of them were below the 644-feet threshold used in the study. Looking forward, Cooks will only play three games in stadiums with elevation above 644-feet above sea level: Week 1 at Kansas City, Week 3 at Pittsburgh and Week 15 at Indianapolis.

Conclusion:

When you consider that concussions are a common injury in today’s NFL and that Cooks is 3 times more likely to sustain another one, I get nervous about his availability in 2020. There is research that suggests Cooks is 70% more likely to sustain another concussion in 13 of his regular season games. For his own safety and quality of life, you can’t help wonder: will Cook’s next concussion cause him to hang it up all together? He is in a high-risk category for me heading into 2020.

References:

[1] Kelly, James P. “Loss of Consciousness: Pathophysiology and Implications in Grading and Safe Return to Play.” Journal of Athletic Training, National Athletic Trainers’ Association, Inc., Sept. 2001, www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC155414/.

[3] Castile, Lianne, et al. “The Epidemiology of New versus Recurrent Sports Concussions among High School Athletes, 2005–2010.” British Journal of Sports Medicine, BMJ Publishing Group Ltd and British Association of Sport and Exercise Medicine, 1 June 2012, bjsm.bmj.com/content/46/8/603.

[2] Guskiewicz, Kevin M., and Atc. “Cumulative Effects Associated With Recurrent Concussion in Collegiate Football Players.” JAMA, American Medical Association, 19 Nov. 2003, jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/article-abstract/197667.

[4] Myer GD;Smith D;Barber Foss KD;Dicesare CA;Kiefer AW;Kushner AM;Thomas SM;Sucharew H;Khoury JC; “Rates of Concussion Are Lower in National Football League Games Played at Higher Altitudes.” The Journal of Orthopaedic and Sports Physical Therapy, U.S. National Library of Medicine, pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/24471872/.

The Undroppables Dynasty Startup

The Undroppables

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June 11, 2020

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As we inch closer to the hopeful start of the 2020 NFL season, it’s only natural for The Undroppables team and some friends to get together for a dynasty startup draft to earn bragging rights among the group. With commentary from members of the league on their thought process during the, we highlight some of our favorite picks made along the way.

League Rules

Teams: 16
Starting Lineup: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 3 FLEX, 1 SF
Relevant scoring settings: 6-pt passing TDs; PPR; 1.75 PPR for TEs; 0.1 points per carry (PPC)

View the entire draft: Click here for The Undroppables Dynasty Startup draft board

The Picks

Round 1, Pick 16 – Joe Mixon – RB, Cincinnati Bengals

“Joe Mixon was a solid grab for me over other available RBs for a few reasons. He offers stability and explosive power, and my thought process here leads me to believe that the Bengals offense will lean on him in both the run and pass game. In a PPR startup dynasty league, having a young RB who can productively catch out of the backfield is exciting! One other aspect of Mixon’s game is his ability to break tackles after contact. He is an elite talent primed to be a fantasy monster for years to come, and drafting him the 1.16 spot was an absolute steal for me. He’s my league winner this year (and beyond)!”

– @lindz_kay6

Round 2, Pick 9 – Chris Godwin – WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

“As the draft played out, the value at RB was definitely not the same as WR. I had pick 2.12 and at 2.09, Chris Godwin, DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams, and D.J. Moore were still on the board. My eyes went straight to Godwin as I love his long term outlook with Bruce Arians as head coach, & Tom Brady at QB only helps. With Adams, Godwin, and Hopkins all gone by the time it got to my pick, I decided to trade up to get my guy Godwin.”

– @FantasyInAFew

Round 3, Pick 15 – Odell Beckham Jr. – WR, Cleveland Browns

“Twelve wide receivers were selected before I called his name, but drafting Odell Beckham at 3.15 was a no-brainer. No, he wasn’t the flashy league-winner in 2019 that he had been in New York, but despite a nagging core muscle injury that impaired him all season, the wide receiver affectionately known as OBJ still balled out. He finished 2019 with the third-most air yards in the league, behind only Julio Jones and Mike Evans. He also managed to eclipse 1,000 yards and establish himself as one of QB Baker Mayfield’s favorite targets. A healthy outlook and the addition of downfield specialist Kevin Stefanski should have OBJ firmly back among the top ten, and possibly in the conversation for number one.”

– @Lindellions

Round 4, Pick 14 – Courtland Sutton – WR, Denver Broncos

“Courtland Sutton in the fourth round was a slam dunk pick in my opinion. He is one of the most slept-on fantasy players, for no other reason than fear of diminished opportunity. Last season, Sutton had nothing BUT opportunity, ranking top 20 in receptions, receiving yards, completed air yards, yards after catch, red zone receptions, and total touchdowns. Not only that, but he held a 23.5% target premium, (top 15 in the NFL) and a 35.1% dominator rating (top 5 in the NFL.) My favorite single predictor metric for next season, is yards per team passing attempt. Sutton ranked 9th in the NFL with 2.03 yards per team passing attempt, higher than players such as Julio Jones, Kenny Golladay, and Tyreek Hill. He’s only 24 years old, and even though the Broncos brought in rookies, they are still that: rookies. I’m not concerned about the cast of new additions or the number of players that are there. Quality > quantity, and we aren’t sure how much quality there actually is in Denver. The players left to choose from at wide receiver were Chark, Lamb, Kupp, and Allen. In terms of points scored throughout their career, I think the probability of Courtland being #1 out of that group is substantial.”

– @BlakeAHampton

Round 5, Pick 16 – Darren Waller – TE, Las Vegas Raiders

“This pick felt like such a smash for me. In this league format, QBs and especially TEs are particularly valuable. I had already secured studs in Dalvin Cook, Miles Sanders and A.J. Brown, as well as one QB, Ryan Tannehill. I really needed to focus on the TE position. My next pick (after a trade with Stoner) was the 80th pick overall, and Darren Waller was staring me in the face. Waller was outstanding last season. He caught 90 of 117 targets (77%) for 1145 yards (9.8 yards per target). I think he remains a high-end TE1 for the next couple of seasons.”

– @DynoGameTheory

Round 6, Pick 3 – Terry McLaurin – WR, Washington Redskins

“A polished and disciplined route runner as displayed in his rookie year, McLaurin was able to post strong numbers working within a poor offense. McLaurin led the 2019 rookie class with 58 receptions while finishing 2nd among rookies with 919 receiving yards and 15.8 yards per reception. With a current ADP as the WR25, (following a WR25 finish in PPR during his rookie year), McLaurin is an easy add for me here. His biggest obstacle to an unlimited ceiling is the QB play of McLaurin’s former college teammate, Dwayne Haskins. If the Buckeye duo can develop in year two, the sky is the limit for McLaurin. Regardless, in a dynasty setting I am always adding talent with minimal emphasis on situation, as things change rapidly in the NFL.”

– @101chalk

Round 7, Pick 2 – Henry Ruggs III – WR, Las Vegas Raiders

“At this point of the draft I felt good about my QB and RB situation, but I only had one WR (DJ Chark). Two of the three picks before me included rookie WRs, so I decided to join the trend and draft Ruggs. I know the analytics community does not like Ruggs, and I have my own reservations as well. But in a league this size, I want a player that has the big play ability to win me a week. It’s possible Ruggs tips a few matchups in my favor this season with just one play.”

– @TheRealAdam_H

Round 8, Pick 1 – Tyler Higbee – TE, Los Angeles Rams

“Entering the 8th round, I wanted to turn my attention to the tight end position. This is a good range to grab a TE and I’m happy I did after seeing the run of TEs drafted after my pick. While it’s a bit of a risk since Higbee doesn’t have a long history of production, he quietly became the only TE in NFL history with five straight games of 7+ receptions and 80+ receiving yards. With the Rams moving on from Brandin Cooks, it appears Higbee could maintain the role that allowed him to achieve those numbers down the stretch in 2019.”

– @fantasydukes

Round 9, Pick 2 – Brandin Cooks – WR, Houston Texas

“Before his 2019 season became marred by concussion injuries, Brandin Cooks had over 110 targets and 1,000 receiving yards each of the previous four seasons. He’s a model for year-over-year consistency, which lends itself well to dynasty. Cooks may be onto his fourth team, but he’ll still have an elite quarterback throwing him the ball in Deshaun Watson. With upside of Cooks becoming the #1 WR on the Texans, he’s a great fit as the fourth wide receiver on my fantasy roster.

– @AndrewMackens

Round 10, Pick 11 – Damien Williams – RB, Kansas City Chiefs

“D Willy,” as I call him, to me represented the most upside, and I needed running back depth at this point badly. Running backs that went after him included Anthony McFarland, Tony Pollard, and Alexander Mattison. To me, Williams presented the best flex/bye week fill-in I could get at this point. Even with the team drafting Clyde Edwards-Helaire, I believe he will still get at least 40% of the teams touches and possibly more than that at the start of season. Williams knows the scheme, is adept at blocking and route running, and overall fits well with this team. CEH is the future, but I don’t see them “benching” Williams. They are paying him and will use him accordingly.

– @PauliesSleepers

More Info

Again, if you’d like to see the entire draft, you can click here for The Undroppables Dynasty Startup draft board

If you’re interested in deep dives on individual team drafts, hit up the managers at their Twitter profiles linked above, or you can tweet at us collectively at @TheUndroppables

See you on Twitter!

Dynasty Draft Strategy | Trade Up?

Tommy Mo

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June 10, 2020

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Among the fantasy football community on Twitter, the hip thing to do during dynasty startup drafts is to trade back for more value. Nearly every seasoned dynasty player I interact with on Twitter supports and endorses this strategy. In fact, some of the Undroppables squad are notorious for constantly moving back in a draft to collect picks in Rounds 3-8. You can build a solid squad of guys that could outperform their average draft position (ADP) in these rounds. They are targeting second-tier guys that may turn into top-tier players. However, what this startup draft strategy gains in depth and later-round value, it misses on bona fide, elite talent.

This trend is starting to take off in the many startup drafts I have participated in the past two seasons. Trade back for current rookies. Trade back for future rookie picks. Trade back for additional picks in later rounds. But to win at fantasy football, sometimes you need to do things differently than what the majority are doing. So what if instead of trading back, you decided to trade up in a startup draft? Can you build your team with studs, while sacrificing picks in those coveted trade back rounds of 3-8? This article presents a case study from a recent Chalk Leagues startup draft, and I will let you decide if this alternative strategy is worth the risk.

League Rules

Teams: 12
Relevant settings: Superflex; PPR; 1.5 PPR for TEs
Draft format: Dynasty startup; snake draft; rookies included; free to trade any picks up to 2022
Draft position: 6

The Draft

Round 1:

Traded away picks 2.07, 4.07, and 6.07 for the 1.07 and 9.07
Drafted Michael Thomas at 1.06 and Kyler Murray at 1.07

Michael Thomas age 27, height 6'3", 212 pounds, 4 years experience from Ohio State. #1 in player rankings — Michael Thomas, via sleeper.app

This trade allowed me to grab my #1 ranked WR and my #3 ranked QB. Drafting from the middle you are left waiting, hoping your choice doesn’t get sniped in front of you. Building a dynasty roster with two young, highly productive top-tier players is a great start. Michael Thomas has proven he’s an elite player who will catch anything you throw his way. He is a PPR god, as he racked up a record-setting 149 receptions last year. And Kyler Murray is the next NFL star looking to improve on his 2019 Rookie of the Year performance. His upside is matching Mahomes’ and Jackson’s jump to elite status the past two seasons.

Kyler Murray age 22 5'10" 207 pounds from Oklahoma — Kyler Murray, via sleeper.app

Round 3:

Traded away 5.06, 9.07, and 15.06 for the 3.07, 12.06, and 14.06
Drafted David Montgomery at 3.06 and Cam Akers at 3.07

By Round 3, the top tier of RBs were all taken. With another set of back-to-back picks, I drafted two young RBs who have great long-term potential to turn into studs as the RB14 and RB15 off the board. Without another pick until Round 7 I have tried to load up on front-end talent and draft youth early. My hope was that veteran RBs will be available later for one to three years of production. Per a source, Montgomery has been working hard this offseason for a great sophomore campaign as the workhorse in Chicago. The rookie Cam Akers does not immediately step into a starting role in L.A., but he has the skill set and talent to beat out Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson by mid-season.

Round 7:

Traded picks at the turn, 7.06 and 8.07 for the 7.12 and 8.01
Traded away the 7.12 and 9.06 for the 7.07, 13.07, and a 2021 3rd
Drafted Jalen Reagor at 7.07
Traded away Cam Akers for Justin Herbert (selected at 7.10)

The focus of this draft is to build this team with youth. While guys like Stefon Diggs, Tyler Boyd, and Michael Gallup were still on the board, Jalen Reagor has the profile and draft capital to be a WR1 in a few short years. He’s a potential phenom that reminds me of Brandin Cooks, who landed in a great opportunity in Philadelphia with two WRs on the tail end of their careers, and a QB that is looking for a play maker. The Reagor-train has been chugging along solidly on Twitter for months now, and in drafts like these you have to get “your guys” before they’re gone. Now I have a boom-bust type player to pair with Thomas who has a safe and high floor.

At this point in the draft, I begin to realize that the top QB prospects are being selected and I risk missing out on a long-term option at QB. The first potential pitfall of my trade up strategy: missing out on middle of the pack draft picks in a Superflex league when the rest of the QBs are being selected. Because I moved up early, I left myself vulnerable to a position that matters immensely in this league format. However, giving up a hopeful prospect like Akers for another hopeful prospect in a higher profile position is a pretty even trade for me. If I were going to draft a QB at 3.07 instead of David Montgomery, I could have had Joe Burrow or Josh Allen. This was definitely the first mistake for this draft strategy.

Round 8:

Traded up to 8.01 (previous trade)
Drafted Melvin Gordon III at 8.01

Since I traded away Cam Akers for Justin Herbert, I was in need of a RB2. Left with either Gordon or Kerryon Johnson, I opted for MG3. Despite missing significant time last year and getting a late start, MG3 still put up respectable numbers in 8 of the 12 games he played in while splitting time with Austin Ekeler. Gordon could still be in a similar timeshare situation now in Denver, but his style of play and pedigree will give him first dibs as the lead runner with Lindsay in the mix. With his injury history, it would be unwise to have Gordon serve as a bell cow running back, but despite splitting time, he should still get enough opportunities to produce solid RB2 numbers with scattered weekly performances in the RB1 category.

Round 10:

Traded away 11.06, 13.06 and a 2021 2nd for the 10.03 and 15.02
Drafted Mike Williams at 10.03 and Austin Hooper at 10.07

I moved up again here in the 10th round to grab Mike Williams as WR45 off the board; again a situation where I had to move up in order to not miss out on a young player with upside. Mikey Dubs had a relative disappointing 2019 and the waters are still murky for his 2020 outlook with a new QB under center and a battle occurring between Tyrod Taylor and Justin Herbert to play that role. However, at only 25 years old with a ton of talent and play-making ability, I still have hope for Williams to turn it around, and at that value it was hard to pass up given how the draft was going.

Austin Hooper was one of my favorite players going into 2019, and he delivered. He earned himself a new contract with the Cleveland Browns making him the highest-paid tight end in the league as of this writing. That move surprised many, as the Browns already have David Njoku. Even more disappointing is that Kevin Stefanski’s offenses haven’t typically featured 2 TEs with fantasy relevance. Still, Hooper should be that guy who gets a hefty share of the 200+ targets remaining that OBJ and Landry don’t gobble up. With a phenomenal catch rate in the high 70-percent range, Hooper should be able to pull in some solid mid-level TE1 production with 80+ targets and a handful of TDs.

In the remaining 14 rounds I drafted veterans for immediate production, and 1st and 2nd year players with upside. Through trade I was able to collect back-to-back picks in the 12th and 14th rounds. With those picks, I selected Anthony Miller (12.6), Jordan Howard (12.7), Hunter Renfrow (14.6), and Jalen Hurts (14.7). One of my favorite players for 2020 that I snagged in the 15th round was Blake Jarwin, who steps in to a potentially significant target share of 80+ targets in the tight end role on a loaded Cowboys team.

My late-round fliers included rookie WRs Gabriel Davis, Isaiah Coulter, and James Proche, all of which will need time to develop. Jalen Hurd selected at 17.6 is my sleeper of the draft. He is a play maker receiver with a ton of talent that I’m counting on to have a bounce back year.

Overall, I am happy with my team (Sleeper). I may not be contending for the title in 2020, but I am building a foundation for the future. The strategy to move up netted me two top-tier players in Michael Thomas and Kyler Murray. Without that move, I could not draft two players of this caliber by taking picks as they come.

The one critique I have of this strategy is to contend right away, you’ll have to be more aggressive. Going all-in on trading away later round and future draft picks. I chose a more conservative approach to moving up as I still hold all future draft picks. A few mid-season and post-season trades will turn this roster into a contender in a few short years. But the foundational pieces are there, even if they get traded. Different strategies fit different leagues and different types of players. But try trading up and go all-in on those top-5 guys at each position in the first three rounds. Then add high upside guys in the later rounds of the draft.

Now the question is if this is the right strategy for you? Let me know what you think!

Association Between Knee Angle and ACL Tears

Adam Hutchison

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June 4, 2020

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Association Between Knee Angle and ACL Tears

There are many medical misconceptions out there, particularly when it comes to fantasy football. One of my least favorite is the idea that football players who display knee valgus during certain movement patterns are more at risk of knee injuries. This is a concept that I hope to debunk and convince our audience is simply not true.

This argument started when fantasy gamers started to fade Jerry Jeudy because of his past medical history of a meniscus tear. Some fantasy analysts further speculated that Jeudy’s excessive knee valgus was a cause for concern and that the fantasy community should proceed with caution while drafting him. This debate sent me down a rabbit hole which eventually led to the column you are reading now.

What is knee valgus?

Knee valgus (Genu Valgum) or collapse is when a person’s knee deviates medially (inward) in relation to their hips and ankles while a person’s feet are in a fixed position. In other words, it is when a knee buckles inward causing someone to have a “knocked knee” appearance.

The image on the right is what we define as knee valgus.

In the general population this is not an ideal posture, especially when running, jumping, squatting, or turning/pivoting. Knee valgus can be an issue, as multiple orthopedic and sports medicine journals have argued. The results of these studies have shown that increased knee valgus angles (KVAs) are associated with a higher risk of knee injuries – specifically ACL ruptures.

I would argue that when studying the knee valgus posture in professional/high-level athletes, we cannot use the same guidelines set for the general population. Athletes in professional sports have unique profiles and sometimes need to move into this knee valgus position to generate force, power, and speed. In addition to that, I would argue that video analysis alone is not sufficient to predict injury risk or what is the source of the knee valgus.

Video Analysis and Knee Valgus:

I recently tweeted about a new study from the Journal of Orthopedic & Sports Physical Therapy (JOSPT) titled, “There Is No Relationship Between Lower Extremity Alignment During Unilateral and Bilateral Drop Jumps and the Risk of Knee or Ankle Injury: A Prospective Study” which pertained to this specific subject. The authors of the study measured the KVA in over 300 male and females basketball and floorball athletes via video analysis. These researchers followed up with the athletes 12, 24, and 36 months after data collection to measure the frequency and severity of knee and ankle injuries. The results of the study showed that lower extremity alignment (knee valgus) during drop jump tests was not associated with a higher risk of non-contact knee and ankle injuries. This supports my argument that video analysis alone is not sufficient for predicting injury.

My NFL-Specific Knee Valgus Study:

Although the research article from JOSPT bolstered my argument, I was unsatisfied because the demographics included in the research are very different from NFL players. As a result, I investigated whether or not there was any correlation between greater KVAs and ACL tears in NFL WRs. From 2013 I found nine “high-profile” WRs who suffered non-contact ACL tears (A non-contact injury is defined as: an injury that happens spontaneously without contact from another player).

Study Specifics Disclaimer:

If you are interested below this is how I conducted this study. I will admit it is complicated, but I wanted to explain how I measured KVAs. If you are uninterested in this process, then skip down the “Results” section.

The WRs in my study needed to be high-profile players because I needed enough tape to study their movement patterns. I also needed to be able to view the player from the front and have a clear view of their entire leg to accurately record the KVA. The KVA was recorded by measuring three bony landmarks on each player: 1. Anterior superior iliac spine (ASIS) 2. Midpoint of the patella (knee cap) and 3. Midpoint of the ankle joint. The lower limb measured was the knee that the player sustained an ACL rupture in. All measurements were taken prior to when the player suffered the injury. From the game film I measured each player’s KVA in three positions: straight-line running, cutting, and prior to jumping. Using those three measurements, I assigned each player an average KVA.

Lower KVAs (150-179°) indicate excessive knee valgus, while higher KVAs indicate a neutral position (180°). There were some players that displayed knee varus (>180°) which can be seen in the table below. Knee varus is often referred to as “bow-legged” and can be visualized in the first graphic above.

Diagram of points observed on leg to determine knee angles on film.

I then compared the composite KVA of the nine NFL WRs with ACL tears to nine other NFL WRs who over their career were relatively healthy and did not have a past medical history of knee injuries in the NFL. To diversify my healthy sample I chose WRs of different ages, sizes and experience. This allowed me to determine if there was an appreciable difference between the KVAs among the two groups (ACL tears vs. non-ACL tears).

Results:

As you can see, there is not much of a difference between the two group KVA averages. The ACL group had an average KVA of 171.33° while the non-ACL group had an average KVA of 171.59°. To determine if the difference in these averages was statistically significant, I asked Undropppables Director of Analytics Blake Hampton (@BlakeAHampton) for help. The main takeaway was that the R Square (r˄2) value was too low at 0.284. R˄2 is the measure of correlation. The value is between 0-1, with 1 being a perfect correlation and 0 being no correlation. In this experiment, the correlation between KVA and ACL tears was small. For medical purposes I would want something much larger (0.5-0.7), especially given my sample size, before I would be comfortable reporting a relationship between KVA and ACL tears via video.

Conclusion:

Based on the JOSPT study and my personal study, I believe that it is unfair to categorize players at a high risk of injury based on the knee valgus angle that is recorded from video. I will admit, both studies are not perfect and have their own limitations. JOSPT did not look at football players and athletes in the age range of most professional athletes and my study had a small sample size of only 18 subjects. Additionally, video of each body position for every NFL WR in this study was hard to find and record a KVA, so there is bound to be some error in my discoveries. With that said, I feel like I am presenting the most objective information on this subject matter and to this point have not seen anything like this in the fantasy football community. For that reason, I am comfortable with my stance that knee valgus angle alone is not substantial information to predict injury.

Circling back to the Jerry Jeudy debate, I believe he should not be avoided because of his knee injuries or his knee valgus. Meniscus tears are commonplace in the NFL, and the surgical procedures to correct them have great outcomes. We should not be avoiding Jeudy (or any player for that matter) because of misconceptions about knee mechanics.

More Information:

If you are interested in more information about this subject matter or want to see a more in depth breakout of Blake Hampton’s stats on the KVA data be sure to go to my twitter account @TheRealAdam_H. Additionally make sure you are visiting The Undroppables website (cantcutlist.com) where our staff has tons of fantasy football information and where you can find more of my medical pieces as well.