Articles - Page 127 of 135 - The Undroppables

Devil’s Advocate | Courtland Sutton

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May 7, 2020

Every NFL season there are a number of players that gain massive hype and shoot up Fantasy Football draft boards, only to disappoint because their expectations were too high. Conversely, there’s a similar group of players who get pushed down in fantasy drafts and consequently become post-hype sleepers and late-round steals. My goal of this series is to look past the popular sentiment, share some statistics, and offer a contrarian opinion for you to consider before drafting a player too early or writing someone off too soon before your Fantasy Football drafts.

The Subject: Courtland Sutton – WR, Denver Broncos

The Broncos’ top wide receiver has gifted us with highlights in both his rookie and sophomore seasons at the professional level, proving he has the talent to become an Alpha-level performer. His 6′ 4″, 216 lb frame is further evidence he fits the mold of receivers that can go up and grab 50-50 balls over opposing defenders and reel in deep sideline catches with ease. Said another way, Sutton has the “IT-factor,” and in 2020 he’ll be entering the fabled “Third-year breakout” stage of his NFL career. But, with the way things are currently set up, can Sutton actualize the high expectations that are set for him? Here I will argue, much to the disappointment of Broncos fans and Sutton-truthers everywhere, that 2020 is not Sutton’s year to achieve Alpha status.

Courtland Sutton was the WR19 in PPR scoring in 2019, with 72 receptions, 1,112 yards, and 6 touchdowns. He totaled 222.42 fantasy points.

Sutton surprisingly outperformed early-round picks such as Stefon Diggs (212.1) and Odell Beckham Jr. (201.3), but did not go so far as to surpass others in his class, such as D.J. Moore (230.5) and DJ Chark (225.8). While I believe there is some room for improvement from an efficiency standpoint, I see two major factors standing in the way of Sutton’s third-year breakout: 1) Little to no increase in volume and 2) The quality of his targets across the season could actually be worse next year. Let’s tackle these one at a time…

Courtland Sutton has some new friends joining the wide receiver room.

While the offensive depth of talent in the 2020 rookie class has impacted fantasy outlooks for plenty of veterans, one of the biggest headlines from NFL draft weekend was the amount of weapons John Elway has given Drew Lock to work with. The Broncos had already signed Melvin Gordon in free agency as a complement to their core 2019 playmakers in Sutton, Noah Fant, and Phillip Lindsay. They followed this up by investing their first and second round draft picks in two young, exciting wide receivers: Top-3 wide receiver prospect / Top-1 route-runner Jerry Jeudy, and Penn State speedster K.J. Hamler. If this means anything, it’s that the Broncos are serious about building a high-scoring offense that can keep up with their division rival Kansas City Chiefs. It also indicates opportunity for Lock to spread the ball around rather than rely on throwing it up to Sutton and having him make plays on his own drive after drive. With many mouths to feed and Broncos QBs throwing in the range of 500-525 passes last year, it will take a jump in game tempo or a concerted effort to pass to ensure Sutton gets an attractive share of targets.

Drew Lock needs to improve both as a QB overall and in his chemistry with Sutton.

Many Sutton owners might remember the diving one-handed touchdown catch he made in Week 13 against the Los Angeles Chargers and think the connection between him and Lock is fine. But if we take a closer look at their five game sample size working together, the prospect of a third-year breakout for Sutton looks bleak:

Per fantasydata.com, from weeks 13 to 17 when Lock was under center, Sutton scored 62 PPR points. This was tied for 33rd among all wide receivers. He scored fewer points in this stretch than the likes of Cole Beasley, Hunter Renfrow, and Steven Sims Jr.
While catching passes from Lock, Sutton never recorded a game of over 80 receiving yards.
Sutton’s 16-game pace based on these 5 weeks was 128 targets (three more than actual), 70 receptions (two fewer than actual), 896 yards (significantly lower than actual) and 6 touchdowns (same as actual).
Lock averaged 6.5 yards per attempt (Y/A) across these five games. For context on whether 6.5 Y/A is good or bad, Tom Brady (QB11 last year) had 6.6 yards per attempt in 2019. This figure was the first time Brady had fewer than 7 yards per attempt since 2013, and it was his second-lowest rating of this metric in his career.

Elway and the Broncos think Lock is the answer at quarterback, but it’s going to take a lot of coaching and growth for him to elevate the rest of his surrounding talent (including Sutton) for Fantasy purposes.

Verdict

We want to see Sutton succeed, but it’s not a cut-and-dry path for him to break out.

According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Sutton is being drafted as the 12th wide receiver off the board, around the middle of the third round. With new talents joining the Broncos offense to take targets away from Sutton, as well as Drew Lock’s development as a passer in question after a small sample size of five games, I rank Sutton well outside of the top 12 at wide receiver and do not expect him to have the third-year breakout we typically hope for.

Sutton is still a great dynasty asset in my mind, and he will be in starting redraft lineups week one of the 2020 season. Having said that, I would rather draft guys like D.J. Moore, Allen Robinson, and Calvin Ridley before I pull the trigger on Sutton.

Predicting Rookie RB Success | The Model Rollout

Blake Hampton

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April 30, 2020

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Predicting Rookie RB Success | The Model Rollout

The Introduction

Analytics is a growing facet to understand the success of an unknown player. For running backs, we can take a data set of college statistics, athletic measurables, and draft capital to predict the success, and even the Fantasy Points-Per-Game that a college player entering the NFL.

Predictive Modeling is something that is new to myself. I learned a lot in several statistics, Computational Engineering Analysis, and Composite Modeling courses during my engineering collegiate duration. Today, I am a process engineer who began my fantasy football predictive analytics for sports gambling. I’ve chosen to take this into predicting rookie success. This is the first time I have built this out, but the results, on the surface, appear to show some of the best correlation that can be shown in predictive modeling.

We are using multiple composite modeling to utilize machine learning. When determining how to build all of this out, there are a set of questions that you need to take into account:

1) What do we want to measure?

2) What Data is applicable?

To answer these questions, it is up to the general population for what is important to measure in regards to fantasy football success. I, mostly, focus on the dynasty aspect of fantasy football. In regards to dynasty, it is important to look at the short-term payout of a player, and what the probability of doing that is. After playing around with several different ways to measure this out, I came to the idea of average PPR Points per game over the first three season’s of a player’s career. This, is a common way that is shown to predict player success, alongside odds of being a “Top X” player.

THE DATA

So to create the model we need to determine the inputs. What is important in actually determining success translation from college success, into NFL success? Well, the inputs are broken up into the following groups:

Draft Information: Overall Draft Pick

College Counting Statistics: Total Yards, Receptions Per Game

College Production Statistics: Self-Created Production Score (Weighted Yards/Touchdowns Per Age), Self-Created Efficiency Score, Total Dominator, Total Dominator Over Average

College Offensive Share: Total Yards per Offensive Attempt, MS Rushing Yards+Touchdowns, MS Yards+Touchdowns over Average, MS Receiving Yards

Athletic Metrics: BMI, Weight-Adjusted Speed Score

The Players Included

The model creation utilizes all players that are included from 2006-2018 NFL draft (257 individuals in total). Although the 2018 has not fully come into form, it is important to include their information as the utilization of running backs continue to expand in terms of usage accordingly. There was a time where players were eased in, but it seems as though utilization is happening at a quicker rate and normalcy is established after 2 seasons.

THE RESULTS

When inputting the information and utilizing several modeling techniques including linear regression, and others, we can correctly predict a players Fantasy PPG Seasons 1-3 within 3 points of actual at a 50% clip. Additionally, it’s shown that the player rankings of predicted PPG, matches this order of player rankings of actual PPG, at a clip of 82%.

This means that this can be an extremely useful tool in predicting NFL Players success as they come out of college and into the NFL.

THE ROOKIE 2020 CLASS

Taking this created model and utilizing towards the most recent upcoming draft, we find that Jonathan Taylor has the opportunity to be an Elite Fantasy Producer. The top-4 running backs on the model, are all considered top prospects by those evaluating these types of players though.

After that point, there are a few spicy takes that the model puts out. Having A.J. Dillon as the 5th ranked running back in the model over J.K. Dobbins something that I personally do not believe will be the actual outcome, but you can understand why with his analytics metrics appeal that shows in the model. Additionally, Joshua Kelley is a polarizing figure within the industry and those evaluating, but he shows up here as the seventh-ranked running back, even with his lower draft capital than others on the model.

SO, HOW DO WE USE THIS INFORMATION?

It’s important to know that the model will not predict everyone 100%, regardless of how close the correlation implies. There will always be outliers that are included, however, that is why they are outliers.

With this said, we can utilize this information to make intelligent decisions on players. If you believe that Josh Kelley can be one of the top running backs in the class, this model states that there is a chance that it could actually happen. If you are wanting Zack Moss to end up the top running back, the likelihood of this happening is very small, and you will most likely end up disappointed.

These do not reflect my personal rankings, however, it is the starting point of everything that I do. It’s important to know a players expected range of outcomes, and their probability compared to the others in the draft class when making these type of decisions.

I will continue to make adjustments, as this is my first year and opportunity doing this. I will continue to keep everyone informed and up to date as I continue to build this out.

Devil’s Advocate | Christian McCaffrey

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April 30, 2020

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Every NFL season there are a number of players that gain massive hype and shoot up Fantasy Football draft boards, only to disappoint because their expectations were too high. Conversely, there’s a similar group of players who get pushed down in fantasy drafts and consequently become post-hype sleepers and late-round steals. My goal of this series is to look past the popular sentiment, share some statistics, and offer a contrarian opinion for you to consider before drafting a player too early or writing someone off too soon before your Fantasy Football drafts.

CMC earned a huge payday in April. Will he pay off as the consensus 1.01 in 2020?

The Subject: Christian McCaffrey – RB, Carolina Panthers

This series wouldn’t be fun if we didn’t go after the Goliaths of Fantasy Football, right?

With playing Devil’s Advocate for a superstar, it’s all a matter of perspective. So let’s say what everyone already knows: Christian McCaffrey is the consensus #1 overall pick in Fantasy Football for 2020 drafts. He has an elite combination of speed, cutting ability, burst, and vision, and that’s only speaking to his running ability! He’s also a complete weapon catching passes out of the backfield, always seeming to make the first guy miss. From an NFL perspective, he’s the perfect dual-threat back, but should you actually draft McCaffrey at #1 overall in fantasy? Let’s look at a few facts that might make you question your so-called “easy” decision…

Christian McCaffrey was the RB1 in 2019 with 413.2 Half-PPR points, becoming only the third player in NFL history to eclipse 1,000 yards rushing and 1,000 yards receiving in the same season.

By “simply” hitting 1,000 + 1,000, McCaffrey had a historic season to place him at the top of the running back rankings. It was historical from a Fantasy perspective as well. Per fantasydata.com, the last time a running back had over 400 Fantasy points in a season was in 2006, when LaDainian Tomlinson ran for 1,815 yards and 28 touchdowns. Salivate over those numbers for a second…

In 2007, Tomlinson’s production dropped 115.5 Half-PPR points, and he was STILL the RB1 that year. This is both a rare and amazing feat, but the point is when a running back logs a historic season, we should expect a precipitous drop-off in production the following year. If McCaffrey were to go for 1,000 + 1,000 in back to back seasons, it would be talked about as one of the greatest achievements in all of sports. The odds that this scenario plays out are, simply put, not high.

Since 2002, only three running backs have achieved the ranking of RB1 in one season and maintained their position as the RB1 the following season (Source: fantasydata.com)

Those three RBs are:

Priest Holmes (2002 and 2003)
LaDainian Tomlinson (2006 and 2007)
Todd Gurley (2017 and 2018)

In terms of repeating an RB1 season, McCaffrey could still out-class his peers because of how much higher his production was compared to everyone else in 2019. However, I believe there’s enough top-tier talent at running back for someone else to take the throne. To put it in strict numbers: across 18 years of data, RB1s are maintaining their position as the RB1 17% of the time. The other 83% of the time, they take a dip in the rankings. In fact…

**Since 2002, running backs who finished the year as the RB1 and did not repeat as RB1 the following year dropped an average of 7.36 spots in the running back rankings.* (Source: fantasydata.com)**

There’s an asterisk for a reason, and it has nothing to do with the Houston Astros. To clarify, the sample size for this statistic is 12 years of data instead of 18. I removed the years where Holmes, Tomlinson, and Gurley repeated their #1 rankings because there was no drop-off to measure. On the flip side, I also removed drop-offs that were due to significant injuries. This includes Shaun Alexander’s drop-off from 2005 to 2006, LeVeon Bell’s drop-off from 2014 to 2015, and David Johnson’s drop-off from 2016 to 2017. So, what history indicates is that if a running back plays a full complement of games the year following their #1 season and they don’t repeat their RB1 performance, they are on average dropping to the RB8 spot in the rankings. By this logic, it’s more likely McCaffrey finishes as the RB8 in 2020 than the RB1.

For those who require deeper statistics to back up a predicted drop-off in production, consider this:

This year, CMC became the 9th player to record 400+ touches in a season.
Of the other 8 players to have 400+ touches, only half played 16 games the following year.
Also, those 8 RBs averaged a 7.4 fantasy PPG drop the following year, with the lowest being a 3.8 PPG drop.
— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) January 22, 2020

If we apply a 7.4 point deduction to McCaffrey’s 2019 rate of 25.8 PPG, that would put him at 18.4 PPG and 294.4 on the season. This STILL would have put him as the RB1 in 2019, but I think multiple top-tier running backs (Barkley, Elliott, Kamara, Chubb) have a chance to eclipse that 300-point threshold in 2020.

Verdict

I’ve been watching a lot of Star Wars: Clone Wars lately on Disney+, and each episode begins with an idiom or saying that is supposed to encapsulate a theme tied to the following 20 minutes of TV. One of these phrases felt all too appropriate:

“Sometimes even the smallest doubt can shake the greatest belief.”

If you have the #1 overall pick in your fantasy drafts this year, it’s hard to argue that McCaffrey’s combination of talent and volume can be passed up. Based on his consistency and his scoring floor from receptions, there’s no reason he should go any later than #4 overall (same as how he was valued last year.) But if you’re truly trying to win a championship in 2020, are you going to play it safe and assume last year’s stats equal this year’s stats with McCaffrey, or are you going to take a chance on another running back with upside to catch their own brand of lightning in a bottle and become the new RB1? The choice is yours, but to be honest, it will be pretty hard to fuck up either way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Breakdown

Vivek Iyer

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April 27, 2020

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Offseason Breakdown

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers had one of the largest roster overturns of any franchise this offseason, first by signing one of the greatest of all time, Tom Brady, to a fully guaranteed 2 year $50 million contract with an additional 9 million in incentives. Brady’s relationship had reportedly soured with the Patriots dating back to Belichick’s support of Jimmy Garappolo. This decline was exacerbated by the lack of talent that Brady had for pass catchers last season after the failed experiments of Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, and Mohammad Sanu. Given Gronk’s departure, the season before, the tight end position for New England was abysmal. Patriots’ tight ends averaged a little over two receptions per game collectively, and 20 individual tight ends had more receptions than all of the Patriots tight ends last season (Ben Watson, Matt Lacosse, Ryan Izzo, etc). Next came the trade with New England to bring Rob Gronkowski out of retirement for a fourth-round pick (and the Bucs received a seventh in return). Gronk reportedly claims that he is in great physical condition, and if this is indeed true, Gronk could vault the Bucs into a contending team next season. Finally, in the draft, the Buccaneers traded up one pick from 14 to 13 in order to select Tristan Wirfs, an offensive tackle from Iowa. Wirfs was in the tier of great offensive lineman in this class, and this pick was a no-brainer for them. They followed that up by selecting safety Antoine Winfield Jr. out of Minnesota to shore up their secondary to go with their top run-stopping defense. In the third round, the fantasy community’s prayers were answered as the Bucs selected Ke’Shawn Vaughn from Vanderbilt. They selected Tyler Johnson from Minnesota in the fifth, filling the third-receiver need that they had after the departure of Breshad Perriman to the Jets in free agency. With all of these moves comes great uncertainty, so let’s try to dispel that and understand what this offense will look like next year.

Offense: An Overview

Tom Brady is sure to bring massive change to the Buccaneer’s offensive scheme with Brady’s shorter-range passing game. Brady typically utilizes pass-catching running backs like James White, and this is a role that could be filled by Ke’Shawn Vaughn in a lesser fashion. Brady also utilizes the slot receiver extensively (Welker and Edelman), which is a positive for Godwin. Bruce Arians has typically implemented a vertical passing attack emphasizing deep passes, something that Brady does not specialize in at this point in his career. Last year, he was average in terms of deep ball attempts and adjusted yards per attempt, placing 15th and 20th in the league respectively. The offense will become less boom-or-bust, as Jameis was willing (to a fault) to throw the ball far downfield, as shown by his 113 deep ball attempts last year, which ranked first in the league, and his 30 interceptions (also first in the league by 9 interceptions).

Wide Receiver

Chris Godwin

Chris Godwin was a breakout star last season, finishing as the WR 2 in standard, half, and full PPR leagues… in only 14 games played. Godwin is only 24 years old and is one of the top dynasty WRs. With Tom Brady as his quarterback, Godwin’s yards per reception will likely decrease from 15.5 y/r last year, but the overall consistency of the offense should improve and thus remove some of the volatility that came with receivers under Winston. As shown by Brady’s utilization of both Wes Welker and Julian Edelman, the slot receiver is one of the most important positions for Brady, and this bodes well for Godwin. Although there is inherent risk when a new quarterback enters a system, Godwin has a safer floor than many of their other options given Brady’s reliance on the slot. Godwin’s astonishing 2.2% drop rate is something that Brady will surely value. Still treat him as a WR 1 in both redraft and dynasty, with an additional boost in dynasty leagues due to his age.

Mike Evans

Unfortunately, Mike Evans is projected to be negatively impacted by this quarterback change, as Evans is a vertical, deep play threat that was a perfect match for a gunslinger like Winston. Evans’s 17+ yards/reception in each of the last two years is not as well adaptable to Brady’s passing system as other roles. On the other hand, Evans’ talent will keep him from falling too far. This is evidenced by his 2014 WR finish of 13 in PPR formats, which was his rookie season, under Josh McCown for 11 of his 15 games played. He still should be thought of as a solid WR2 with TD upside in redraft, and he receives a slight boost in dynasty given his age (26 years old). Although he might finish above where my projections have him, his volatility given game script, Tom Brady’s preferred game-manager style, and being the WR 2 on his team (for target purposes), will make him less enjoyable to own in fantasy compared to his year-end finish.

Tyler Johnson

Honestly, I am only adding him here since he was drafted today. Johnson is buried in the pecking order of pass catchers (especially considering the tight end talent that the Bucs have) and plays a slot role that is filled most of the time by Chris Godwin. Irrelevant in redraft leagues and only worth a late-round flier at best in dynasty leagues.

Tight Ends

Rob Gronkowski

GRONK IS BACK! Rob Gronkowski was acquired a week or so before the draft for a fourth-round pick and has a strong chance to be their number one tight end this year given the chemistry between him and Tom Brady. Gronk, despite losing weight, claims that he is in great physical shape, which was the reason for his decline in New England a couple of years ago. If OJ Howard is traded or Gronk has positive buzz coming out of the Bucs camp during the offseason, he could be a mid-lower end TE 1. For now though, more of a low-end TE 1 in redraft leagues with some upside.

O.J. Howard

O.J. Howard… One of my biggest misses last season. Howard was one of the most disappointing players in fantasy last year, becoming unusable almost instantly. Howard was underutilized by the coaching staff and began to cede playing time to Cameron Brate. The addition of Gronk has severely capped his upside for the foreseeable future, and the way to success for him seems to be through trade. Such rumors have swirled, however, nothing has been finalized. OJ is an incredibly talented pass catcher, however, he has never had the support of the coaching staff. For now, the only way that he returns to fantasy relevance for season-long leagues is through trade or injury and thus is not worth drafting in redraft leagues. In dynasty, he still is worth rostering due to his talent.

Cameron Brate

Cameron Brate was the better TE last season in Tampa Bay, however, he is undraftable unless there is a trade or injury in front of him. Although Brady has utilized two TE sets in the time of Gronk and Hernandez, more recently he has used one. Brate, like Howard, is a speculative TE watch for me and his success is dependent on injuries to Gronk and/or Howard’s exit.

Running Backs

Ke’Shawn Vaughn

The Buccaneers finally did it. They selected a running back… in the third round. While this draft capital is satisfactory, nevertheless it does not guarantee workhorse status. Vaughn will likely be used in tandem with Ronald Jones, however, as of now, Vaughn seems like the RB to own in that backfield. Vaughn caught 28 balls in his last year of college, showing that he does have the potential to become a solid pass-catching back. Vaughn is a strong rusher that can be used on all three downs, however, his top-end speed and agility are lacking and cap his real-life usability/upside. He went to one of the best landing spots in the draft and should be a first-round rookie pick in Superflex or one QB leagues with strong redraft appeal to be a mid-round pick.

Ronald Jones

It could have been worse… however drafting Vaughn still means that Ronald Jones is likely no more than a low-end flex play for the foreseeable future (if he is used in a complementary role as I believe he will be). Given Vaughn’s draft capital, there is a strong chance that Jones will still be used, however likely as the number two in their backfield. Jones never had full confidence from Bruce Arians, and hasn’t been used in a workhorse role for any extended period of time. This move makes him a handcuff and a sometimes usable piece given plus-matchups. He is worth a late-round flier in redraft leagues and is a low upside piece in dynasty without an injury to Vaughn.

Dare Ogunbowale

Unfortunately, Dare’s role is likely negligible due to Vaughn’s arrival. Dare’s skill set is as a 3rd down back, however, he wasn’t utilized extensively in this role last year. Brady’s signing boosted his outlook slightly at first, as (long-shot) hopes surfaced of Ogunbowale being used as a third-down, James White-lite type of back in this offense. Vaughn will likely fill the pass-catching role (as well as split early-down work) and thus Dare is relegated to irrelevance in redraft leagues and is no more than a deep league flier in dynasty PPR leagues. Offseason reports and early season usage will quickly dictate if he is worth rostering.

Quarterback

Tom Brady

Brady went from having Edelman, Sanu, and Myers to Godwin, Evans, Gronk, OJ (maybe), and Brate. He finally has weapons that are elite, and this will boost him up the QB ranks immensely. He becomes a mid-QB 1 in redraft leagues and has more upside than he has had for quite some time. Brady will be a great asset next year in fantasy.

Jameis Winston

Although Jameis is no longer on the Buccaneers, it is still appropriate to mention him. Jameis has garnered only minimal interest from teams this offseason, as turnovers and off-the-field issues scare potential suitors. Despite Jameis’s fantasy dominance and high yardage/touchdowns last year, it seems as if he will serve as a backup somewhere this season. He is currently irrelevant for redraft leagues, but he is still definitely worth rostering in Superflex leagues as his fantasy appeal is clear if he is given a starting job.

Final Thoughts

The Tom Brady trade had immense implications for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers skill position players. This trade should help make the offense more consistent, but removes some of the top-end upside created by Jameis’s gunslinger style. Rob Gronkowski will be great if his body is able to withstand the beating of another season. In the draft, the Bucs selected a great offensive lineman in Tristan Wirfs and filled their need at running back with Ke’Shawn Vaughn, who could be a poor-mans version of James White in the passing game but be even more effective as a rusher. The Bucs’ offseason moves should help the team immensely, increasing expectations to that of a solid playoff team that could contend if luck is on their side.

2020 NFL Draft Instant Reaction | Round 1

Rookie

The Undroppables

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April 25, 2020

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2020 NFL Draft Instant Reaction | Round 1

The NFL Draft is here! We made it through Round One and you want to know how your team is impacted by these rookies, but we all want to know: What players benefited in draft capital for your dynasty football team? We had four quarterbacks go in the first round, one running back, and six wide receivers. I’m going to do my best to tell you all how or if the destination they went to, will impact their fantasy impact. This article will address any fantasy impact through the perspective of 12 team, PPR Superflex leagues, but I will address 1QB formats as well.

The Cincinnati Bengals led off the draft and shocked absolutely nobody by taking Joe Burrow. Burrow is everything the Bengals want. A leader, accurate, able to make plays with his feet, and a winner. He is undoubtedly the 1.01 in super flex and has a chance to be a real impact player day one. In one QB Burrow still has value in rookie draft in the late second or early third.

The Miami Dolphins took the next quarterback at the number five pick in Tua Tagovaiola. Miami got maybe the best talent in the draft. Burrow is amazing but I believe Tagovaiola completely healthy should be an electric playmaker leading a Dolphins team in a wide-open division. Tagovaiola is a long-term piece and not necessarily the 1.02 in Superflex leagues but should not fall past 1.04. In 1QB leagues, he should be a third round pick.

The Los Angeles Chargers selected next at the number six pick and took the future at the quarterback position in Justin Herbert. Herbert has a lot to learn and suffered from decision-making lapses. Although he needs to develop, he is in a good position to succeed with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Hunter Henry and Austin Ekeler as his primary weapons, if you need a quarterback, take him in the first. In one QB leagues take him in the third.

With the 12^th pick the Las Vegas Raiders selected the speedy WR from Alabama, Henry Ruggs. I’m not super high on Ruggs, I saw some real struggles in beating press coverage, but he will get a ton of opportunity and immediately will slot in as the speed guy Las Vegas needs. I question the overall success he will have, but his opportunity will be plentiful

With the 15^th pick the Denver Broncos took my second-ranked wide receivers pre-draft. Jerry Jeudy was an absolute stud at Alabama and will fit in a Denver offense ready to compete in the AFC West. Jeudy is the slot receiver in Denver for a long time. I like the fit because it allows Sutton to still be the guy outside and Jeudy can take over the middle of the field. Top eight pick in rookie drafts,

My pre-draft WR1 is the University Oklahoma star, CeeDee Lamb. He got picked at pick 17 by the Dallas Cowboys. I love this move for the Cowboys in real football terms – Dak Prescott has weapons everywhere. Unfortunately for fantasy football purposes, Dak Prescott has weapons everywhere. CeeDee Lamb in his first year will have to share targets with Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and watch the Cowboys run the ball a lot with Ezekiel Elliott. He’s still a first round pick in rookie drafts, but more of a long-term investment.

The Philadelphia Eagles selected Jalen Reagor, my WR4, with pick 21. I love the pick! I believe Reagor is a stud who can play outside or inside in Philadelphia and is in a good position to be targeted quite often. Reagor might have moved into the first round in Superflex dynasty drafts and a guaranteed first round pick in one quarterback leagues.

With the 22nd overall pick, the Minnesota Vikings selected Justin Jefferson to replace Stefon Diggs – who was traded to Buffalo. Jefferson was my sixth-ranked WR and primarily played slot at LSU. Watching Jefferson, he definitely has the ability to play outside, where I think Minnesota wants him, because of their already elite slot receiver Adam Thielen. Jefferson is an early second round pick in SF leagues, and a late first early second in 1QB leagues.

The 49ers traded with Minnesota to pick at #25 overall. San Francisco selected the electric Brandon Aiyuk. Aiyuk is a very good football player who will fit well into the Shannahan system. I believe he complements Deebo Samuel and will be a good player, but his landing spot keeps him at the end of the second round for me.

The Green Bay Packers decided not to give Aaron Rodgers a weapon at #26 which they traded into. Instead, the Packers drafted quarterback Jordan Love. This is the worst landing spot for Love in dynasty. He has no immediate path and was already a question mark for me. I’ll pass on him moving forward in rookie drafts.

The Super Bowl Champions picked Clyde Edwards-Helaire at pick 32. Edward-Helaire will fit in as the RB1 for the electric high-powered offense led by Patrick Mahomes. Edwards-Helaire has the ability ceiling of a Brian Westbrook type. If he can learn the system, he could be the 1.01 in non Superflex drafts.

The first round shaped many NFL teams and brought some exciting players available in the dynasty rookie drafts that are soon to follow. There is a lot of changes that will come in rookie average draft position, and there will surely be more changes to come.