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Rookie Spotlight | Bryan Edwards

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April 22, 2020

As I sit here writing this, I’m re-watching the film on Bryan Edwards, and by the time the NFL Draft comes around, I am confident that Edwards is going to stay solidified in my top ten. Edwards is physically gifted standing at 6’3”, 215 pounds of muscle. He suffered a knee injury his final season; missing two games. To make matters worse, he suffered a broken foot just before the Combine. It’s unclear how he would have performed at the Combine, but Edward’s film shows that some team will get a very good player. Edwards is the all-time career receptions leader at South Carolina; hauling in 234 career receptions and accumulating 2,331 yards. He showed versatility and the ability to score as well by averaging almost six touchdowns in his career and finishing with 22 receiving touchdowns. Edwards is an interesting player and ranks inside my top ten for several reasons.

The first reason is athletic traits, his size and athletic ability allow him to bully smaller cornerbacks and his toughness shows in the types he runs. Edwards can be a true chain mover, using his quickness to move well in short areas. Edwards is by no means the fastest receiver in this WR class but can make tight coverage catches and understands the concepts of finding soft spots and using athleticism to create after catch and separate enough for deep throws.

The second trait that Edwards possesses is his position versatility. Watching the South Carolina game against Missouri, Edwards played outside receiver almost exclusively, while in his game against Appalachian State, he played a great number of big slot snaps. Edwards is really able to use the athletic traits mentioned above to be effective in both spots.

The third reason that isn’t mentioned often in regards to Edwards being able to create an impact in fantasy football is his ability to block, one of the best if not the best blocker in the class on runs outside, and one reason why he lines up in the slot as well.

Another positive for Edwards is body control. Although isn’t perfect it is undoubtedly better than a good amount of his peers in this class. One reason that Bryan Edwards has made some absolutely terrific catches is because of necessity. His quarterback play was average at best and often made Edwards adjust on what should have been easy catches. He was missed multiple times over the middle in stride having to adjust for off-target throws thus affecting his opportunity after the catch.

I’ve spent so much time telling you all the things Edwards does well. Though there are some great aspects to Edwards’s game, his route running is average at best. Edwards relies too heavily on his athletic skill set and designed open space plays to win. He telegraphs his routes and does not do enough to make cornerbacks make mistakes by using his feet and body movements. He won a good amount of times in college but he must be willing to dig deeper and work harder on his route running to beat NFL cornerbacks.

In conclusion, Edwards could be a Draft Day steal both for NFL teams and dynasty owners looking for upside on Day Two as a future NFL WR1. Edwards has the physical size and traits to be special and the position experience to play outside or in the slot similar to Larry Fitzgerald. Edwards’ injury history, is concerning, not because of the fact they happened, but because they involve his feet and knees. Edwards would fit well on a team, like the Houston Texans or Kansas City Chiefs that have speed but lack the truly big physical receiver. Check out my 2020 Rookie WR below to see how Edwards stacks up in my opinion, in this loaded class.

2020 NFL Rookie WR Rankings

CeeDee Lamb – Oklahoma
Jerry Jeudy – Alabama
Denzel Mims – Baylor
Jalen Reagor – TCU
Tee Higgins – Clemson
Justin Jefferson – LSU
Brandon Aiyuk – Arizona State
Bryan Edwards – South Carolina
Henry Ruggs – Alabama
Van Jefferson – Florida
Tyler Johnson – Minnesota
Michael Pittman, Jr. – USC
K.J. Hamler – Penn State
Isaiah Hodgins – Oregon State
Devin Duvernay – Texas

Market Watch | April 2020

Kyle Larson

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April 21, 2020

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Market Watch is where we dive into the ever-changing values of players in dynasty formats. Whether it’s an opportunity to buy low, sell high or even buy high, sharks never sleep.

? Bullish: These are players who are trending up, causing optimism for future prospects and performance.

? Bearish: These are players who are either trending down or show cause for concern regarding their future prospects and performance. We’re looking to sell these players.

Note: ADP is based on Sleeper PPR Dynasty Superflex Startup drafts in Chalk Leagues with a 0.5 PPR TE Premium.

In this issue, I’ll be focusing on the effects of the trades and signings that happened during free agency. I’ll go through the AFC and NFC and cover what happened through the offseason.

American Football Conference (AFC)

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen – ?

ADP – 29.3

While Allen has his pitfalls as an NFL quarterback, the Bills signal caller is a valuable fantasy asset as a QB with a good rushing floor and an increasing amount of weapons. Buffalo trading for Stefon Diggs early in the offseason should only help the young gunslinger in fantasy. The current pass catcher core of Diggs, Brown, Beasley and Knox gives Allen plenty of options to use his big arm to make big plays next season.

Stefon Diggs – ?

ADP – 60.5

The Bills trading for Diggs is great for the Bills and Josh Allen’s fantasy stock, as mentioned above, but not necessarily great for Diggs’ fantasy stock. Diggs moved from one run-first offense to another and, in terms of accuracy, downgraded at QB. The ceiling for Diggs is still very close to what it was in Minnesota, but I think his floor has lowered with the move to Buffalo.

Cole Beasley – ?

ADP – 279.4

Cole Beasley was an average producer last season, and still should hold some value in PPR leagues due to his work in the short passing game. However, the Bills adding Diggs hurts Beasley a lot more than John Brown.

John Brown – ?

ADP – 189.8

Brown is a deep threat and his fantasy outlook is hurt as Diggs is now the alpha who will command a large target share with a limited number of passes in the Buffalo offense. Smokey and his new teammate are also big play receivers so it will be worth monitoring whether the two can coexist.

Miami Dolphins

The (Former) Miami RBs – ???

ADP – Kalen Ballage: 343.3, Patrick Laird: 313.6, Myles Gaskin: Undrafted

After Jordan Howard signing with the Dolphins, I don’t see a spot for Kalen Ballage to contribute other than as a backup due to the similarities between his and Howard’s skillsets. Laird and Gaskin might do something if the Dolphins don’t address RB in the draft, but with the crazy amount of capital that they have I think they’ll draft at least one.

Preston Williams – ?

ADP – 133.1

Preston Williams is one of my favorite buys right now. He was on track for 179.6 fantasy points before going down with an injury last season, a number that would have put him less than ten points behind fellow rookie standouts Deebo Samuel and DK Metcalf. Most likely, you can buy Preston for quite a bit less than either of those two.

Devante Parker – ?

ADP – 92.4

This one seems weird, because Parker’s performance last year feels fluky on the surface. It coincided with Preston going down and Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing the ball willy-nilly around the field. However, I think that Parker can continue to be a valuable fantasy asset because of the Dolphins’ OC signing, Chan Gailey. Gailey, historically, has let his QBs play like Fitzpatrick and throw the ball all around the yard and I think whoever that QB is will still be able to sustain both Parker and Preston in Gailey’s system next year.

New England Patriots

Jarett Stidham – Trending ?

ADP – 148.1

Everyday the Patriots don’t sign a different QB, Stidham’s stock goes up just a little bit. Honestly, him surviving this long is a surprise to me. The Pats’ QB situation still has many possible outcomes though, including signing Cam or Jameis, trading for Andy Dalton, or adding another player via the draft, so be cautious investing in Stidham.

Pats WRs – ?

ADP – Julian Edelman: 164.6, N’Keal Harry: 119.8, Mohammed Sanu: 316.1, Jakobi Meyers: 305.3

Everyday the Patriots don’t sign a different QB, the Patriot’s WRs’ stock goes down just a little bit. Quite frankly, I’m not sure I believe in anyone on their WR roster with Stidham at QB. Edelman may be a value because of his age and people passing on him this year, but I don’t see value in Harry, Sanu, Meyers etc. at least in the short-term.

New York Jets

Sam Darnold – ?

ADP – 53.4

Sam Darnold comes into 2020 with an improved offensive line. His WR corps and coaching staff are still going to bring him down, but having more time to make decisions will be huge for a young guy like Darnold and I think he can translate that into success.

Breshad Perriman – ?

ADP – 200.5

Perriman has a decent shot at being highly involved in this passing game for an entire season. Mostly because the rest of the WRs on the team are question marks just like him. Expect him to fill the vacated Robby Anderson, deep-threat role.

Jamison Crowder – ?

ADP – 156.6

The Jets avoiding a WR splash signing in Free Agency means Crowder has a path to high amounts of volume again this year. As of before the draft, he projects to be Gang Green’s WR1.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

All Assets – No Change

The Ravens didn’t lose any significant pieces on offense or gain any, except maybe Hurst but I don’t think that will have much effect on the rest of their fantasy assets.

Cincinnati Bengals

Drew Sample or C.J. Uzomah – ?

ADP – Sample: 316.5, Uzomah: 299

Whichever one of these guys wins the position battle in camp will likely be worth a TE stream every now and then, and maybe a spot on your deep dynasty rosters.

Cleveland Browns

Austin Hooper – ?

ADP – 83.3

Hooper went from a great situation in Atlanta to an ok situation in Cleveland. Overall, the Browns’ passing attack looks to be trending down with the Stefanski hire and a run-first system. Hooper still has top-12 TE upside because of his skill but don’t expect the same results he had last year.

David Njoku – ?

ADP – 188

I think this one goes without saying. He’s been replaced and loses most of his value until his contract expires or he is let go/traded.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt – ❓

ADP – Chubb: 16.9, Hunt: 99.5

The Stefanski hire clearly helps the Browns’ running game in fantasy, but Kareem Hunt being available for all games in 2020 makes this situation a lot more murky. I’m really not sure what to do with either player in the short term, but both have great long-term values due to their skill.

Baker Mayfield – ?

ADP – 41.1

The Browns added Conklin and Hooper over the offseason, and most expect them to add another OT from the 10 spot in the draft. Meanwhile, a run-first system actually helps Baker in my opinion. His best plays come after play-action and if this new coaching staff can take advantage of that, Baker can have one hell of a season with all the weapons that surround him.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Vance McDonald – ?

ADP – 289.4

With Eric Ebron joining the squad, it seems as though Vance won’t have very much opportunity in the Steeler’s offense next year.

Pittsburgh WRs – ?

ADP – JuJu Smith-Schuster: 31.3, Diontae Johnson: 120.6, James Washington: 198.9

Big Ben is healthy again, signaling a likely increase in catchable passes for every other guy on the field. Hopefully, the Steelers address their backup QB situation in the draft or from the remaining free agency pool and we don’t have to see guys like Diontae Johnson and JuJu Smith-Schuster suffer if Ben goes down again.

AFC South

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson – ?

ADP – 10.8

Watson lost a top 3 WR in the league. The Texans tried to replace Hopkins with Cooks and will likely add another body in the draft, but I don’t think Hopkins is replaceable in the short-term. Overall, Watson is still a great player, and he’ll survive. I just have short-term distrust due to lack of weapons. I’m avoiding him completely in redraft.

A Healthy WR1 – ?

ADP – Will Fuller: 119.1, Brandin Cooks: 138.75

You know how I said Hopkins isn’t replaceable? Well, two players will be forced to try: Brandin Cooks and Will Fuller. Both players offer large injury concerns, but if either stay healthy expect a lot of volume their way and fantasy success.

David Johnson – ?

ADP – 113.5

David Johnson went from backup to starter, so that’s a big plus for fantasy. I also believe that Bill O’Brien’s pride will be beneficial to David Johnson as he gets fed the ball to make it look like the Texans didn’t get fleeced in the Hopkins trade.

Indianapolis Colts

T.Y. Hilton – ?

ADP – 128.1

Hilton is a very talented player, but playing with Jacoby Brissett led to lower fantasy output than normal when healthy last season. If he can stay on the field this year, unlike last year, he can provide major value with Philip Rivers at QB.

Jacoby Brissett – ?

ADP – 245

Another obvious blow due losing his job. Also, if the draft rumors are true, he may not even have the Indy backup job on lock.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Gardner Minshew – ?

ADP – 94.4

The Jags picked the youngster this offseason over Nick Foles, and it really seems like they want to give him a shot at the undisputed starting role next season.

D.J. Chark – ?

ADP – 59.8

Chark had a monster season last year, and I think stability at QB will likely help Chark going into year three.

Tennessee Titans

Ryan Tannehill – ?

ADP – 70.4

Tannehill survives the Brady to Tennessee rumors and gets the extension he deserves. I think he can continue to be a strong fantasy asset in this Tennessee system.

Corey Davis – ?

ADP – 212.6

Tajae Sharpe is gone, somebody will have to step up a bit. Maybe it’s Corey Davis? Maybe it’s a new face we’ll see walk across the virtual draft stage next week? Maybe it’s the next player on this list?

Jonnu Smith – ?

ADP – 130

Jonnu Smith stepped in admirably last season for Delanie Walker after the latter went down in week 6. In fact, Jonnu was the TE12 from week 7 on last year. Now, with Walker officially gone for good, Jonnu gets the opportunity to keep up his production from the back half of last year, and quite possibly, do even better.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

Phillip Lindsay – ?

ADP – 143.9

Oh hey, another dude who lost his starting gig loses value. I still think he holds some value as the Bronco’s RB1b, but not near as much value as he had last year.

Melvin Gordon – ?

ADP – 69.8

Melvin Gordon to Denver was one of the more surprising moves of the offseason, at least to me. I thought Lindsay would be safe, but apparently not. Overall, I think both these guys lose some value as they move into the Bronco’s RBBC.

Kansas City Chiefs

Damien Williams – ?

ADP – 124.5

Damien Williams survived free agency two years straight now. It feels like everyone has wanted to see Williams replaced since he became the lead back in KC, but the Kansas City front office doesn’t seem to feel the same way. If he gets past the draft again this year, expect the hype train to depart the station just like last year.

Las Vegas Raiders

Marcus Mariota – ?

ADP – 201.8

Mariota was highly unlikely to sign anywhere with an open starting gig this offseason. However, Las Vegas feels like one of the better landing spots in terms of the possibility of usurping the current starter.

Josh Jacobs – ?

ADP – 21.1

DeAndre Washington signed with the Chiefs, he had 41 targets in the Oakland offense last year. Josh Jacobs owners hope those can be slid to Jacobs. The coaching staff keeps saying they want to get him involved in the passing game, so why not?

Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Jackson – ?

ADP – 191.4

Bye, bye, Melvin Gordon. The Chargers’ coaching staff sounds like they think they can ride Jackson as the compliment back to Ekeler next season. Expect them to add another RB in the draft, but pay attention to which RB and where they are drafted. In my opinion, whoever they draft is replacing Troymaine Pope as the RB3, not Jackson as the RB2.

Los Angeles WRs – ?

ADP – Keenan Allen: 58.5, Mike Williams: 119,

Bye bye, Philip Rivers. Good luck to Tyrod Taylor as he looks to show he’s still a starting-caliber NFL QB. Whether he is or isn’t that, he still likely won’t be heaving it downfield as much as Rivers was last year. I expect a decrease in overall passing yards for this offense next season, which will lead to less fantasy points for Keenan Allen and Mike Williams.

Hunter Henry – ?

ADP – 91

Hunter Henry gets bumped down for the same reasons as the LAC WRs. Also, there might be a small drop here due to the Chargers signing XFL standout Donald Parham. Parham will likely take a few more targets than an average TE2 would.

National Football Conference (NFC)

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Blake Jarwin – ?

ADP – 141.5

Jason Witten is gone, Blake Jarwin got paid. The Cowboys’ starting TE brings fantasy value. Just last year, old man Jason Witten was the TE11 in fantasy with Jarwin taking almost 100 fantasy points from the other side of the line.

New York Giants

Golden Tate, Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton – ?

ADP – Tate: 209.6, Shepard: 152.8, Slayton: 113.6

With the Giants not adding another WR so far, it seems as though these three will be the guys out wide for the Giants next season. Last year, Shepard and Tate practically took turns being hurt. It will be interesting to see how all of them do in fantasy if they’re all on the field.

Philadelphia Eagles

All Offense – ?

The Eagles didn’t really do much this offseason on the offensive side of the ball. However, their defense looks mighty scary after the additions they made. This could lead to less offensive output from the Eagles as they won’t need to score as many points. Also, it should be noted that the current Eagles WRs will likely have their stocks plummet during the draft.

Washington Redskins

Dwayne Haskins – ?

ADP – 125.4

Cam Newton didn’t follow Ron Rivera to Washington, and Haskins is supposed to be in the draft call during the draft. So, it seems highly unlikely that Haskins doesn’t get another year to prove himself.

All RBs other than Derrius Guice – ?

ADP – Bryce Love: 224, Peyton Barber: 299.3, Adrian Peterson: 305.6, J.D. McKissic: Undrafted

Coach speak from Rivera seems that he loves Derrius Guice, which means less running for the rest of the RB room. Also, they went and added even more depth signing McKissic and Barber. It’s difficult to make sense of what will happen if Guice goes down.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

Allen Robinson & Anthony Miller – ?

ADP – Robinson: 58.8, Miller: 141.3

I think Nick Foles gives the Bears WRs more opportunity than Mitch Trubisky, especially Anthony Miller with Foles propensity to target the slot WR. Also, Allen Robinson is a steal at his current ADP. He finished WR8 last year, and is being drafted around WR22.

Mitch Trubisky – ?

ADP – 179.3

Trubisky got pulled for Chase Daniel last year after a couple bad games. With an upgrade at the backup QB, I expect Trubisky’s leash to be even shorter next year.

Nick Foles – ?

ADP – 182.6

Similarly to Marcus Mariota, Foles got one of the better backup QB jobs in the offseason. He also reunites with a bunch of his former coaches. DeFilippo is the Bears new QB coach, who worked with Foles in Philly and Jacksonville. Matt Nagy, the Bears’ HC, worked with Foles in Philly and KC. As well as new Bears Offensive Coordinator, Bill Lazor, who was with Foles in 2013.

Detroit Lions

Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones – ?

ADP – Golladay: 42.3, Jones: 179

Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones will improve so much with Stafford back in the fold as the starter after coming back from injury, and if Stafford goes down again they now have Chase Daniel instead of David Blough.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Jones – No Change

ADP – 32.4

People want to move Jones down their list because of the Packers talking about adding another RB in the draft. However, this quote was taken out of the context. The Packers want to add someone who can help Jamaal Williams IF Aaron Jones goes down again like he did last year.

Minnesota Vikings

Adam Theilen – ?

ADP – 83.9

No more Stefon Diggs means somebody has to pass catches from Kirk Cousins. While the Vikings offense will likely run through Dalvin Cook, but Diggs and Theilen have been good in fantasy for a few years now anyway. See The Missing Piece: Adam Thielen for more.

Tajae Sharpe – ?

ADP – 279.4

Tajae Sharpe joins a new team with a lot more opportunity than he had in Tennessee. If he holds onto the WR2 position in Minnesota, he could be a good fantasy asset for next year.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Todd Gurley – ?

ADP – 69.1

The Rams offensive line last year was garbage due to injuries and poor management, and now Gurley steps into a new team. The Falcons have their own oline concerns, but they will continue to build the position through the draft. I also think that with the 1 year deal in Atlanta and Dan Quinn on the hot seat, the coaching staff could look to ride him all season long.

Carolina Panthers

Teddy Bridgewater – ?

ADP – 90.4

Teddy was one of my favorite backup QBs to acquire in Superflex before moving to Carolina because I love the talent, and now he gets the starting gig in Carolina with awesome receiving weapons like DJ Moore and CMC. He also steps into the Joe Brady offensive system, which was dominant for LSU and Joe Burrow in the college football ranks last season.

D.J. Moore – ?

ADP – 23.9

I think DJ Moore gets a bump for the new offensive system as well as an upgrade at QB. Moore finished WR18 last season while missing 2 games and playing with Kyle Allen at QB. I expect Moore to move into the top 12 WRs next season and due to his young age, I might rank him even higher in dynasty.

Curtis Samuel and Robby Anderson – ?

ADP – Samuel: 147.1, Anderson: 163.4

Bringing in Robby Anderson doesn’t hurt DJ Moore as much as some might think. However, it does hurt Curtis Samuel. Both players play very similar roles, and I don’t think they can both have strong production.

New Orleans Saints

Emmanuel Sanders – ?

ADP – 176.1

Emmanuel Sanders with Drew Brees, Sean Payton and Michael Thomas on the other side of the field is a recipe for success. He’s a huge target for my contending teams and redraft teams.

Michael Thomas – ?

ADP – 5.4

Michael Thomas is still a stud, 100%. However, with Sanders joining the team and possibly a rookie, I just don’t see him getting 140+ targets once again this year.

Drew Brees – ?

ADP – 87

Drew Brees is getting more weapons, he’s going to be even better with Sanders instead of Tre’Quan Smith. Similarly to Emmanuel Sanders, I love Brees for contenders and redraft leagues.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Mike Evans – ?

ADP – 34.1

Tom Brady joining the team means less gunslinging and likely less deep passes than Jameis Winston. Overall, the passing yards for the entire team will likely go down due to less playing from behind due to Jameis’ turnovers.

Ronald Jones – ?

ADP – 135.9

Ronald Jones didn’t get his job taken by Melvin Gordon or Todd Gurley like some expected to happen, and I think that the Bucs RB can produce next year playing with the lead instead of behind like last year.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Kenyan Drake – ?

ADP – 54.3

Kenyan Drake getting tagged and staying with the Cardinals is great for him, because it seemed likely he would be put into a RBBC if he moved teams. It’s still possible he splits time with Chase Edmonds, but I think he has a great opportunity in Kliff’s offensive system.

Christian Kirk – ?

ADP – 94.4

With the DeAndre Hopkins signing and Fitzgerald staying another year, Kirk will likely have to wait again for his target share to go up.

Los Angeles Rams

Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods – ?

ADP – Kupp: 51.5, Woods: 87.8

The Rams changing to 11 personnel at the end of the season with Woods seeing almost all the snaps and Kupp splitting time with Cooks as the second WR. Now, Kupp and Woods will both see the field more than they were after the bye week last year.

Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett – ?

ADP – Higbee: 105.9, Everett: 230.3

With Cooks gone, the two Rams TEs will likely see more targets and increased production, but it will likely be a crapshoot as to which will succeed each week.

San Francisco 49ers

All RBs – ?

ADP – Tevin Coleman: 196.4, Raheem Mostert: 153.8, Jerrick McKinnon: 285.6, Matt Breida: 201.4

With Jerrick McKinnon likely returning to the committee, I have no idea to do with any of the 4 RBs that could be involved next year. I likely won’t trust any of them as more than a flex play if all 4 are healthy.

Dante Pettis – ?

ADP – 275.6

Emmanuel Sanders is gone, and somebody needs to fill the role. It could be a rookie, it could Dante Pettis, it could be Jalen Hurd, it could even be Kendrick Bourne. Somebody will step up and will likely be valuable as the 2^nd or 3^rd option behind Kittle and Samuel.

Seattle Seahawks

Will Dissly – ?

ADP – 183

Hello Greg Olsen, Will Dissly will have to wait at least another year if he is going to be the Seahawks’ TE1 again. It’s also possible he gets another rookie TE in the fold that would replace him after Olsen leaves.

Greg Olsen – ?

ADP – 237.4

I think Seattle was one of the better options for Olsen in free agency. Now, Olsen plays with an elite QB and can likely scoop up some TDs and be fantasy relevant again next year.

The Missing Piece | Adam Thielen

Kayne Rob

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April 20, 2020

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To clarify, as a die-hard Packers fan, this pains me to even recommend any talent on the Minnesota Vikings for the masses to acquire. That being said, fandom bias aside, my affinity for Adam Thielen shows that I truly believe Thielen holds high quality at a real value which at this moment in time is a must-have.

As of April 2020, Adam Thielen’s ADP in dynasty fantasy football leagues is sitting at 67 overall (WR33). Depending on your league format that is a late 5th or 6th round pick. This could potentially make a top 10 upside wideout the WR3 on your team, or give you a solid WR2 if you stocked up with multiple RBs in the first four rounds. Yet looking at the fantasy scene, you will probably see a lot of people writing Thielen off for the 2020 season. You will likely see a combination of statements saying “he’s too old” or “he’s coming off an injury” or “he will see more coverage due to Diggs departure”. I am here to tell you to take some of these statements with a grain of salt.

Recent Production and Injury Concerns

Let’s first take a look into the injury worries. By his 2019 numbers, it would look as though Thielen is on the decline. This conclusion may be present even looking at his average per game fantasy stats, but I wouldn’t take that at face value. Looking at Thielen’s average per game stats doesn’t do Theilen justice because there were multiple games, three to be exact, where Thielen hardly touched the field (due to his hamstring injury) yet those games still counted against his average for even seeing the field. To paint a more realistic picture I would take a deeper dive at Thielen’s first 6 games where he was fully healthy. In these first six games, Thielen saw 83% of snaps or greater while receiving 6+ targets in four of these six games. He also racked up 366 yards and 5 touchdowns within this timeframe. If you take the per game stats from these games where he actually played, projected across a full season, Thielen was on pace for 970 yards, 13 touchdowns, and 66 receptions. Those numbers would have made him a WR1 once again, placing him in the WR8-10 range, also making him a top 10 WR for 3 straight seasons. Once Adam Thielen sustained a hamstring injury in Week 7, he didn’t return to full health for the remainder of the regular season. In fact, Thielen only played in one game (week 16) where he played his typical number of snaps. Even in this game, he served a decoy role for a majority of the game. It wasn’t until the playoffs where Adam showed to be at full health but his performance there showed that the Vikings’ number one pass-catcher is still fantasy relevan as he posted 12 catches on 16 targets for 179 yards.

Yet all of this isn’t to say there is no worry with his injury. After speaking with our very own Edwin Porras (@FFStudentDoc), I learned that Thielen’s leg injury shouldn’t hamper his play by any means. With that being said, the major hamstring strain Thielen suffered does carry an increased risk of re-injury, so I do not want to write that off. I’m not recommending you go out there and make Thielen your WR1 or overpay by any means but evaluating the current spot he is falling to in startups or the low cost he is garnering in trades and saying buy at that price!

Granted he does remain in good health, I believe Thielen is set up to produce nicely in the 2020 season due to 3 main factors. Those three factors are:

A likely increased target share opportunity;
Past wide receiver success within new OC Gary Kubiak’s system; and
Thielen’s ability to be efficient and find success making contested catches.

Increased Target Opportunity

It’s no secret that the Vikings are losing a massive weapon with Stefon Diggs being traded to the Buffalo Bills, but with that departure Minnesota frees up the 22% target share (94 total targets) that Diggs commanded in 2019. In fact, looking at the 2018 season where Kirk Cousins had a healthy Thielen and Diggs; Diggs finished with equal or greater targets than Thielen in 10 of the 15 games that they both saw the field. This trend continued in 2019 when the pair was healthy as well, up until the playoffs where Thielen took control. This also signals that with Diggs departure an increased target opportunity was still a possibility even if Thielen had played out the entire 2019 season at his normal target numbers.

Having spent 4 seasons together with Diggs as starters, there were bound to be games each missed due to injury. Taking a look into the splits where one of the pair was out, Diggs only missed 5 games, one of which was played with Kirk Cousins as the starting QB, so extrapolating those splits would be misleading. Lastly, even missing seven full games on the season Thielen finished with the third most targets (48 total targets), so a good chunk of those vacated by Diggs will likely be headed Thielen’s way who finished with 17.8% of the teams targets in 2019 (2018 Thielen held a 26% share). The rest will likely be divided between the likes of Olabisi Johnson, Irv Smith, Kyle Rudolph, and Tajae Sharpe (or an early rookie draft pick).

Success in the Kubiak System

Gary Kubiak has a proven track record of providing wide receiver success when play calling for a team’s offense. Although many will discuss his effectiveness toward the ground game, there is still a positive outlook for Thielen as well. During his stint of head coaching from 2006-2016 (with one season as an OC in there) Kubiak produced at least one top 12 wr or two top 24 wrs in nine of the eleven seasons:

Years with a top 12 WR: 7

Years with two top 24 fantasy WR: 4

The two seasons in which he did not produce either of these, his top option was injured for seven or more games. Further, during these years Kubiak’s offense has often been in the top 20 for pass attempts (outside of his first year as HC and 2011) and also was in the top 20 in receiving yards every year (outside of his first year as HC and 2016, when his team had a QB rotation of Siemian, Lynch, and Kelly).

Analyzing Kubiak’s team rankings in pass attempts, rush attempts, pass/rush yards, and pass/rush touchdowns throughout the years it is apparent he shifts the teams whole offensive approach based on the proven talent he has available but prefers a balanced attack if he has the weapons. To Thielen’s advantage, Kubiak has a proven track record with utilizing his personnel’s strengths so I am expecting to see a high usage of Dalvin Cook and Thielen, with a possibility of Alexander Mattison and Irv Smith stepping into larger roles.

Efficiency and Success in Contested Coverage

Last but certainly not least, Adam Thielen is a quarterback’s best friend. In 2018 Thielen posted a contested catch percentage of 55.6% which was 9th best in the NFL and his QBR when targeted was a 111.0 (22nd best in the league). How did he follow this up in 2019 prior to injury? He increased his contested catch percentage to 60.0% while posting the 4th best QBR when targeted of 130.0. Not only that but from a fantasy perspective Thielen posted the 6th best fantasy points/route and the 3rd best fantasy points per target. Thielen is sure-handed, dependable, and showed a great deal of promise this past season, prior to the injury, with a good possibility at landing as a WR1 for the third straight year. Now with good health, Kubiak’s system, and a large number of open targets for the taking I believe Thielen could be on his way to yet another low end WR1 finish in 2020, yet fantasy owners are treating him like he is damaged goods.

Wrapping it up, if you are making a run at that championship this upcoming season then Thielen is the perfect piece to consider buying at his current asking price. The fact that you can get this number one wideout for an early second round rookie pick is definitely a price worth paying for any contending team. On the startup front Thielen’s ADP as of the beginning of April is 67 overall and WR33. A sixth round grab and potentially your 3rd receiver that carries top 10 upside is an easy buy no matter his age, which he is just heading into his age 30 year. I would say this medium-risk high-reward option is staring you right in the face, and is a great way to win a league in 2020.

Devil’s Advocate | A.J. Brown

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April 16, 2020

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Every NFL season there are a number of players that gain massive hype and shoot up Fantasy Football draft boards, only to disappoint because their expectations were too high. Conversely, there’s a similar group of players who get pushed down in fantasy drafts and consequently become post-hype sleepers and late-round steals. My goal of this series is to look past the popular sentiment, share some statistics, and offer a contrarian opinion for you to consider before drafting a player too early or writing someone off too soon before your Fantasy Football drafts.

The Subject: A.J. Brown – WR, Tennessee Titans

A.J. Brown_Titans — Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

It’s no secret that A.J. Brown is a beast. Watch any highlight of his, and you can tell he’s got special play-making ability after the catch, thanks to his 6-foot, 226-pound frame and breakaway speed. But, the hype around him in the fantasy football community has gotten a bit out of control. I’ve heard him being touted as a Top 10 dynasty WR after a single season, I’ve heard of him being drafted as the third WR off the board in Best Ball formats, and I’ve heard full-time analysts talk about his stock settling around the late 4th/early 5th round. I’m a Titans fan, and even I know this train needs to slow down before it derails at the 2020 Week 1 regular season station. Let’s dive into why you should NOT take A.J. Brown too early in your fantasy drafts.

A.J. Brown finished as the WR15 in Half-PPR scoring in 2019 with 191.1 fantasy points.

He finished 3.1 points behind Tyler Lockett and just 1.8 points ahead of D.J. Chark. Let’s take a look at each of their receiving stats below.

In a Half PPR league, Brown is behind by 20-30 catches and still hangs among the ranks of Russell Wilson’s #1 target and a bona fide early-season breakout… what gives? Well, what this graphic doesn’t show you is the 49 yard rushing touchdown that saved Brown’s day statistically against the Saints in Week 16. Without this play, he ends Week 16 with one catch on two targets for 34 yards; essentially locked up by Pro Bowl Cornerback Marshon Lattimore. If we watch the play itself, an arguably missed holding call and a badly missed tackled were large enablers to Brown going the distance. Without this 49-yard rushing touchdown, Brown finishes with 180.2 points on the year, which puts him down at WR22. Sure, if we take away rushing stats from guys like Robert Woods and Stefon Diggs, they’re likely to drop a few spots as well. But this still puts Brown at around WR20 in Half-PPR, which seems to be a more reasonable ranking given his boom-bust nature throughout the year.

Speaking of being boom-bust, A.J. Brown scored 48.7% of his fantasy points on his nine scoring plays in 2019.

It comes with the territory of fantasy football that scoring plays will almost always be worth more points than any other play in football, thus the more touchdowns a player scores in a season, the higher percentage contribution those plays will have to their fantasy total at the end of the season. For context, Kenny Golladay finished the season as the WR6 in Half-PPR with 65 receptions, 1,190 yards, and 11 TDs, with 47.1% of his fantasy points coming from his 11 scoring plays of the season. But conversely, Mike Evans finished the season as the WR12 (in three fewer games, mind you) with 67 receptions, 1,157 yards, and 8 TDs, with only 35.5% of his points coming on scoring plays.

The argument here is that touchdowns are widely regarded to be less predictable than yards, and big-play TDs can be just as much a result of the defense breaking down as it is the talent of the man with the ball in their hands. I have yet to do deep research on whether there’s a correlation between percentage of fantasy points scored on non-scoring plays and overall fantasy success, but if I’m looking for a WR option who’s not reliant on one-sixth of their touches to make or break their season, then Brown is not on my watchlist.

A.J. Brown had six ‘bad’ games, five ‘good’ games, and five ‘great’ games across the season. Four of his five great games came against bottom half passing defenses.

I mentioned a big play can be as much because of the offense being amazing as it is the defense being horrendous. When we hone in on the key plays/games that defined Brown’s season and make him a Rookie of the Year candidate, they were against the Falcons, the Raiders, the Jaguars, and the Texans twice. The Texans and Raiders were both weekly plus-matchups for receivers. The Titans played the Falcons in Week 4, when Dan Quinn’s defense was in shambles and we were talking about the Atlanta Head Coach losing his job. Last but not least, the game in which Brown burned the Jaguars was in Week 12, after All-Pro Cornerback Jalen Ramsey was traded to the Rams. When Brown faced the Jags in Week 3 (and Ramsey was still on the team), he only managed a single catch for four yards on five targets. I give Brown all the props in the world for taking advantage of the mismatches given to him, but at this point in his career, I’m not sure he’s dominated an elite corner playing at the top of their game yet. There is a level of uncertainty in performance one must consider with Brown’s boom-bust nature on full display in 2019.

Per Mike Tagliere, “A.J. Brown averaged 8.8 yards after the catch in 2019, which led the league.”

Mike continues to say, “According to NFL’s NextGenStats, he should’ve averaged just 4.0 yards after the catch based on where he caught the ball and who was around him. That 4.9-yard difference was easily the most in the NFL, as no other receiver had a difference of more than 2.6 yards. Sadly, regression is in order.”

When he started for the Titans Weeks 7-17, Ryan Tannehill’s passing touchdown rate was 8.1%.

For context, Patrick Mahomes’ 2018 TD% was 8.6% and Lamar Jackson’s 2019 TD% was 9%. If we look at the six-game stretch after the bye where Brown became more involved in the team’s offense and set this to a 16-game pace, Tannehill’s TD% would be 9.25%. Again, regression will be coming in a BIG way for the Titans’ pass offense, especially because…

The Titans ran the ball on 48.79% of their plays in 2019, the third highest rate in the NFL.

This limits the number of targets Brown will see on a game to game basis. He’s at the mercy of a positive game script, and we have plenty of evidence that the Titan’s run-first mentality has the ability to remove Brown from the gameplan completely. People will look at Damien Williams’ post-season finish as an argument for why he’s still a top RB selection in 2020 fantasy drafts, but considerably less people will point out that Brown ended his three-game playoff run with 10 targets, four catches, and 64 yards, and how it should be a knock against his 2020 draft stock.

A.J. Brown’s 16-game pace from his last six games of the season is unreal. No literally, it’s unrealistic to expect anything like these numbers in 2020.

When you look at Brown’s game log, it’s clear the Titans made an effort to get him more involved Weeks 12-17, when the playoffs were on the line. If we take Brown’s receiving line during this stretch–again, this was the same stretch where Ryan Tannehill was throwing a TD on over 9% of his throws–and extrapolated the numbers over a 16-game span, his season-end numbers would look like this:

104 Targets, 67 receptions, 1,613 yards, 13 TDs – Simply put, that’s insane.

To put those yardage numbers in context, Michael Thomas led the league with 1,725 receiving yards in 2019, and he needed 78% MORE TARGETS (185) than Brown’s 16-game pace target numbers to achieve that milestone. In 2018, Julio Jones led the league with 1,677 yards on 170 targets. Even with opportunity for Brown’s target numbers to take an uptick via an increased role from Year One to Year Two, he has a snowball’s chance in Hell of reaching the same target numbers Thomas and Julio reach perennially, and it’s highly unlikely both Tannehill’s and Brown’s efficiency metrics maintain themselves through the 2020 season.

Will A.J. Brown be a Home Run, or strike out in 2020?

Verdict

A.J. Brown looks like a special, talented player in highlight reels. He’s a home-run hitter that can offer massive upside to your Fantasy lineup when everything is going right, but with the current state of the Titans offense and the volume required for Brown to improve upon his rookie numbers, I don’t like his chances of being worth the investment you spend on him in 2020. I would love to snag him in the 6th or 7th round when the core of my Fantasy team is established, taking a shot on him as an X-Factor week-to-week and a potential league-winner.

Rookie Spotlight | Justin Herbert

Randal Kennedy

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April 15, 2020

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There is something different about the way a Justin Herbert pass looks when it leaves his hands. It’s not just the way it cuts through the air or the precision with which it finds its target. Herbert’s passes aren’t just placed perfectly, they look perfect. When he’s in rhythm, few throw it better.

But that shouldn’t really surprise anyone. His physical attributes have never been questioned. In fact, they are the main reasons many scouts pegged him as the top pick in the 2019 NFL Draft. And while modern offenses have evolved to maximize speed and utilize space, Herbert’s unique skill set makes him everything NFL teams clamor for.

Herbert surprised scouts with his speed (4.68 40 yard dash) and athleticism (35.5 inch vert and 10 foot 3 broad jump) at this Spring’s NFL combine. And while leading a spread offense at Oregon, he showed his versatility. Versatility that allowed him to take home Senior Bowl MVP. In an effort to get him out of his comfort zone, the Bengals coaching staff placed him under center and asked him to do things that weren’t necessarily in his wheelhouse. He answered the bell time and again. And took home practice player of the week. Displaying the leadership qualities NFL teams look for in a franchise quarterback.

Since that strong showing, he has quietly gained steam within the Dolphins organization. According to the Miami Herald, the Dolphins started to shift some of their focus to Herbert, not Alabama QB Tua Tagoviloa, as has been speculated for months. A big part of that decision may revolve around the new offense Miami appears to be implementing.

Head coach Brian Flores raised plenty of eyebrows when he recently coaxed 68-year-old Chan Gailey out of retirement. The former NFL head coach last stalked a college sideline in 2007 when Gailey ran his spread offense at Georgia Tech. An offense that relied on athletes like Herbert who possesses a big arm and the athleticism to make plays off-script. Herbert produced the third highest grade on throws outside the numbers last year. And had no problem pushing the ball downfield. The Oregon product had the highest accurate pass rate of the 2020 draft class on passes 20+ yards downfield.

Ironically enough, one of Gailey’s previous stops includes a spot on Dave Wannstedt’s staff in Miami. Wannstedt recently levied his opinion on Gailey’s quarterback preference.

Chan wants to move the quarterback. He always has. He wants an athletic quarterback. So you have to take a look at that when you look at quarterbacks. – Dolphins Wire

But no matter where Justin Herbert plays in 2020 the leadership qualities displayed at the Senior Bowl, his drive and skill-set ensure that someone is getting a great player with a bright future. A future that could include South Beach.

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