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Dynasty Startup Game Theory

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April 13, 2020

In dynasty, we have our teams forever. We literally only get one chance at a startup draft. I’ve seen teams set themselves back 5 years just because of a flawed startup strategy. There is more than one acceptable startup strategy, but for me there is only one way to do it. And it has seemed to work, regardless of the league.

There are some basic startup strategies I employ and I’ll get to them in a moment. But first, before you do anything, it’s most important to understand the type of league you are in. How many teams? How many roster spots? How deep are the lineups? What are the scoring settings? These are all hugely important to the strategy. In general, the smaller the lineups and the fewer the teams and the shallower the rosters, the more you need to value top-end talent (trade up) and the more teams and deeper rosters and lineups, the more you want to value depth (trade back).

In general, the ‘standard’ leagues we play in these days (dynasty) are 12 team leagues. A very typical lineup is QB, 2RB, 2-3WR, TE, 2-3 Flex and most often a Superflex. Generally speaking, a 10-12 player starting lineup is deployed. Dynasty rosters will typically field between 24-30 players.

These are the ‘standard’ settings I am referring to. In a league like this it’s important to understand where the cliffs are. In the NFL there are 32 teams. That means there are only 32 starting QBs. And not all of them are #good. So let’s say there are 20-25 startable QBs. There are also only 32 starting RBs. Some teams support 2 (Saints, Patriots) and some support none (Dolphins). So let’s assume there are 30 startable RBs. When it comes to Tight Ends, there are only 10-15 quality options. When it comes to wide receivers, there are more and more each year because of increased passing in today’s game and the disappearance of the true alpha WR. There are generally about two WRs per team that are viable. Let’s just say there are 50 of them.

So, in conclusion, there are 25 QBs, 30 RBs, 15 TEs and 50 WRs. That’s 120 total players. That is exactly 10 rounds of a dynasty startup draft.

What does that tell you? You want as many picks in the top 120 as possible. That’s what it tells us.

So how do we attain maximum capital in the top-120? We trade back. There is more than one way to make these trades, so be creative. Here are some general principles: Your 1st round pick is VERY valuable. And you only get one. So make the most of it. If you can, trade your 1st for a later 1st plus picks later. Like, 1.03 for 1.07 & 5.07 & 8.06 (or something like that). There is no exact science or valuation. As a matter of fact, you may be able to sell the move from 1.07 to 1.03 for much more than I just illustrated. It all depends upon your league mates and their zeal for a certain pick or player. Know your league.

Now, don’t stop there. Keep trading. And the further back you have to go, the more you should ask for in return. The goal here is to stack as many picks in the top 120 as possible.

Remember though, the elite players are usually drafted in the top 5 rounds (roughly), so value those picks a fair amount more than later picks in the top-120.

When you are trading back, your league mates will want to sell you short, as they should. Be respectful of all offers, even if they are ridiculous. Don’t ever disrespect another owner’s offer. It does you no good to do that. Simply decline and move along. If and when you make a move with another owner, the owner with the terrible offer will then see what it takes to get a deal done. And that will serve as his educational moment. You don’t need to be ‘the genius’ of your league. Having good relationships with all the other owners will make your team better because owners will know they can come to you with any offer.

Ok, great. So now I have two 3rds and two 4ths and two 5ths and two 7ths and three 10ths (or something like that) and I have been able to grab a few future first-round picks; That’s all great, but who the hell do I draft??!!

This may be the most important of all. Now, I won’t fault you for drafting stud RBs. It’s a fact, stud RBs win ships. However, in a startup, I’m looking at a different archetype. I will definitely draft a stud running back if I can. But don’t force the running back position. Running backs have a very short shelf life. Only the truly elite RBs last longer than 2-3 years (for fantasy).*

So for me, I build my startups with Young Stud WRs. I target WRs between 21-25 years old and I grab as many as I can. These assets (young WRs) will buoy your team for the coming years. Literally, for the next 5-8 years they should remain viable. And if they are young, they will also begin to increase in value. In one league last year, I drafted Amari, DJ Moore, Golladay, Godwin, Boyd and AJ Brown. None of them were taken in the top 2 rounds. They are all now top-12 dynasty wide receivers (except Boyd). Barring anything crazy, all of these guys will continue to be viable for many years to come. Also, because I traded back so much. I was able to attain 2020 1sts. I have 1.03 1.04 & 1.07. That where I can grab my RBs to go along with my WRs. Draft elite running backs in the rookie draft.

#LateRoundQB in all formats. In 1QB formats, this strategy is relatively easy to execute. In 2QB and Superflex leagues, it’s a little more challenging. However, if you have already traded back, then you have a lot of picks clustered together and you can avoid missing out on runs more easily. With the additional draft capital you have accrued, you can even trade up if you feel you need to in order to secure a QB. Remember, Lamar was a late-round target last year in dynasty start-ups. The important thing in Superflex drafts is to try and leave the draft with three starters if you can. Two at a minimum.

Trade back.
Accrue top-120 picks and future rookie picks.
Draft young stud WRs.
Wait on QB.
Don’t force RBs, but take the value when it’s there. Stud RBs are a premium asset.

* There is another major reason that RBs are more volatile. If a veteran running back is replaced and becomes the RB2 on his NFL team, he almost useless in fantasy. If a wide receiver is replaced by a younger stud wide receiver and becomes the WR2 on his team, then so what. He may still see 100 targets. Even if he is the WR3 he can often approach 100 targets in the right offense. Look at Larry Fitzgerald. He is still a viable fantasy option. Crazy.

NFL Free Agency Breakdown | Arizona Cardinals and Houston Texans

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April 10, 2020

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On March 16, 2020, the NFL world was shocked when Bill O’Brien, the Texans GM, traded Deandre Hopkins to Arizona for David Johnson, a second and a fourth-round pick. Inarguably, this is one of the worst trades in recent memory, as Deandre Hopkins was an unquestioned top 3 receiver in the league and only 27 years old. In return, the Texans received an aging 28-year old David Johnson with a horrendous contract – 2 years left on a 3 year, $39 million extension. Johnson will likely not be the Texans’ workhorse running back, as 30 years old is a threshold that few quality starters pass and succeed once crossed. Rumors have swirled claiming that Hopkins wanted to a new contract, but nevertheless this was not near the yield that the Texans could have received for him. In comparison, Stefon Diggs (and a seventh-rounder) fetched a first, fourth, fifth, and sixth-round pick just a few days later. Two seasons ago, Amari Cooper was traded for a first-round pick, despite only having one year left on his deal. Everyone in the NFL knew that the Cardinals were desperately trying to give DJ away, not only because of his contract but the fact that they tendered Kenyan Drake as well, and this should have diminished Johnson’s value to nearly nothing. Regardless of the one-sided nature of this deal, there are still massive fantasy football impacts for both teams, and let’s begin by breaking down the Cardinals and how they will be impacted.

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray

Kyler Murray instantly sees a massive boost to his short term and long term value. He now has one of the great WR corps in the league, with Deandre Hopkins, Larry Fitzgerald, and Christian Kirk rounding out their top three WRs. With their tendencies to run four WR sets, second years like KeeSean Johnson will also be on the field frequently. Kyler is now viewed in the dynasty community as a top-3 QB, one that can be dominant for years to come. Hopkins commands double coverage down the field, and this can help with Kyler’s rushing by spreading defenders across the field, opening up rushing lanes. His passing numbers will improve with the addition of one of the premier WRs in the NFL, and the impact will be especially felt in the redzone. Arizona was bottom 5 in the league in redzone touchdown percentage at 45.28%, and the addition of one of the best redzone options in the NFL will greatly improve the offense’s effectiveness in this area. Deandre Hopkins was ranked by Lineups as the second most effective redzone receiver in the NFL last year, with a redzone rating of 97. Kyler is one of the largest beneficiaries of this trade.

Kenyan Drake

Kenyan Drake is another beneficiary of this trade as it practically guarantees him a full, workhorse workload for the upcoming season. Drake was electric after his trade to the Cardinals, scoring 8 touchdowns in 8 games played and averaging over 100 multi-purpose yards per game. Drake has a 3-down skillset, excelling as both a rusher and pass-catcher. David Johnson was projected by many to be used as a change of pace receiving back, and his departure gives Drake the reins to this backfield. The only other running back of note on the roster is Chase Edmonds, also a proficient pass catcher, but his role is likely going to be as a capable backup. Drake’s value in dynasty and redraft skyrocketed, and although he is 26 years old, he has only carried the ball 456 times in his whole career. This translates to a longer period of quality performance in the NFL and is a positive indicator for his dynasty value. In redraft, his draft position will likely be as a low-end RB1.

Deandre Hopkins

Hopkins goes from an ideal situation to another great situation, however, uncertainty adds risk, and this is an overall negative move for his value. In Houston, he was the unquestioned alpha, receiving 150-192 targets each year since 2015 from Deshaun Watson, one of the best young QBs in the NFL. On the Cardinals, his targets will likely drop considering their usage of 4 WR sets and the inevitable connection issues between Kyler and Hop. Despite preseason promises of nearly 90 plays per game by the Cardinals, they only averaged 62.5 plays per game last year, ranking 21st in the NFL. In comparison, the Texans were 12th, so the pace argument sides with Houston. Despite this, Hopkins only drops a few spots in dynasty and still should be treated as a top-5 WR, however, in redraft he may finish below that.

The other WRs (Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, Keesean Johnson, Andy Isabella, Hakeem Butler)

Larry Fitzgerald now faces more competition for targets and is now a bye-week fill-in candidate as opposed to a starter. His ceiling is a lot lower now.

Christian Kirk also faces competition for targets and is the WR 2/3 for the offense this year, and the WR2 on that team for the longer term. He now has a lower ceiling, however, avoids facing number one cornerback coverage in the near future, something that Kirk was not ready for.

KeeSean Johnson is now fighting to keep the WR4 role, and has a heavily capped ceiling. He is likely irrelevant for redraft and nothing more than a late-round flier in dynasty.

Andy Isabella was almost exclusively a slot receiver, and this move will push Christian Kirk to play in the slot more often in four WR sets with Fitzgerald in the other slot, adding more competition for playing time. This relegates Isabella to a speculative flier in dynasty and irrelevance for redraft.

Unfortunately, Hakeem Butler seems buried in this depth chart and likely needs to find a new home in order to return on the hopes that we had for him coming out of college. Very late flier in dynasty and can be neglected in redraft.

Houston Texans

Deshaun Watson

Deshaun’s value, unfortunately, takes a large hit from this trade. Watson is one of the best young QBs in the NFL, electric with both his passing and rushing ability. He is still a top 10 QB in dynasty based on his age and talent, however, he has fallen from his previous position of QB 3. His remaining WRs are not enough for him to sustain his fantasy performances from the past. Will Fuller, while extremely talented, is frequently injured, playing in 42/64 games in his career and exiting some of those with injuries. Kenny Stills is a solid starter, but is more of a WR 3 type for a team. Keke Coutee, while many thought last year could have been a pseudo-breakout year for him, was buried in the depth chart by Bill O’Brien and seems to be struggling to find any playing time. Although Watson gains a great pass catcher in David Johnson, he has not historically targeted running backs heavily despite having capable pass-catchers like Duke Johnson. Overall, a very negative move for Watson.

David Johnson

David Johnson is arguably the biggest winner of this trade. He is now extremely relevant for fantasy and likely will be drafted as a fringe RB 1 next year in redraft leagues. David Johnson is now the lead back in Houston, and this is ensured by the massive amount that they gave up to get him. David Johnson’s rushing has noticeably declined, as shown by his yards per carry, 3.6 and 3.7 for 2018 and 2019 respectively. His strength is in his pass-catching, which is still elite for a running back. His yards per target was the second-highest of his career last year, at 7.9 yards/target. Although the Texans generally don’t utilize pass-catching backs to their fullest extent, nevertheless this is a massive upgrade considering that he is guaranteed to be the lead back in that backfield. His risk is due to injury history and how he has shown his age; at 28 years old he has shown a significant decline in rushing productivity.

The other WRs (Will Fuller, Kenny Stills)

In my opinion, Will Fuller is someone whose value should drop due to this trade. Fuller will now likely face the best corners from the other team, and this will hurt his production and efficiency. Fuller relies on long-distance targets that can create huge plays, however, he does not fit the mold to handle a Hopkins level workload in terms of targets. The vacated targets are more likely to be distributed evenly amongst the current WR core and any WRs that they bring in through free agency or the draft.

Kenny Stills is a beneficiary of the Deandre Hopkins trade as he will receive more targets from Deshaun Watson. He should step into a possession WR role unless they address that need in the draft.

Looking Forward

As we advance into the draft and the 2020-2021 season, both teams have completely changed for both real and fantasy football. Both teams have young quarterbacks that have strong career outlooks, and both are QB1s for dynasty. This will go down as one of the worst trades in recent memory for the Texans, however it accelerates Arizona’s progression so that they can draft for needs other than WR, such as defense and offensive line. The Texans will likely address WR with one of their eight picks, although 3 are seventh rounders. Keep in mind these changes in your fantasy drafts next season!

Can’t Cut List | David Zach

Chalk

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April 8, 2020

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Can’t Cut List is our way of showcasing the friends, partners, and affiliates of The Undroppables. Fantasy Football has been a way for us to connect with people all over the world, allowing us to make strong bonds and friendships. Throughout the way, we’ve been fortunate enough to connect with the industry’s top upcoming names. Meet some of the brightest minds that have influenced us in our processes.

Stone Cold

Next up in our series is David Zach (@DavidZach16), the creator of the Fantasy Z-Score. Mr. Zach also writes for two of fantasy football’s biggest brands: FantasyPros and DynastyNerds. This analytics junkie has made an impact with his hard work and it’s only a matter of time before he joins the big names when discussing projection models.

When I called David for this feature, it quickly became apparent that this mechanical engineer hailing from Dickinson, North Dakota (where the temperatures are frigid) has forged David into a man with determination and unique perspective on life and fantasy football.

For those who are not familiar with mechanical engineering, it is essentially the design, development, and manufacture of machines and devices to transmit power. This science requires deep analytical thinking and an ability to predict results or consequences, similarly to what fantasy analysts use to build projection models. David also completed about 80% of the coursework for a Masters in Psychology, which evidences a desire to learn along with more analytical tools.

David isn’t always building machines and models, however. He is married with a beautiful wife and baby girl and loves spending his free time with them, playing board and card games and exercising. He is also a dancer with some “stone cold impressive dance moves” as he used them to lure his wife when they first met. If alcohol was involved (most likely), then it was likely a few vodka-Red Bulls. If he’s not with his family, David keeps himself busy exercising and getting in some Call of Duty.

Finding Meaning In Numbers

When David got into the fantasy football game, he was fortunate enough to connect with guys like Hayden Winks and Blaine Blontz, who took chances on a young, hungry kid out of North Dakota. Being able to showcase his projection model work was a tremendous opportunity for David but that didn’t stop him from learning from the best. As I spoke with David, it became evident that he has so much respect for great minds like Peter Howard and Garrett Price who have been great sounding boards during the modeling process.

Among his proudest accomplishments is being able to provide content that helps his readers get an edge in their leagues and drafts. In the end, for David, it’s all about putting together a meaningful interpretation of data. Whether it’s developing the Z-Score, Yards Created, TD regression, Air Yard Differentials, Vacated RB touches… this guy is constantly looking to build his next model. Go figure!

David’s biggest fear in evaluation is getting caught in tunnel vision, focusing too heavily on only a trait or two. To counter, David tries to be as holistic as he reasonably can and looking at the bigger picture. Like the rest of us, David has personal opinions on each player but tries his best to avoid being biased when creating models. If he is unable to explain very clearly why a statistic or metric is being included and how it should be applied, it does not belong in the results. Each statistic in a model must have a clear correlation to the result, which he usually measures by its R^2 and visual plotting. With his background in engineering, it isn’t a surprise that the beauty is in the details.

Words of Wisdom

“Have fun with fantasy football. It is an imaginary game for adults who love football after all!”

2020 Rookie Wide Receiver Gems

The Undroppables

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February 28, 2020

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The NFL Draft is a place where NFL teams can potentially change their fortunes or continue building success at multiple positions. The NFL Draft is also important for fantasy football owners in dynasty format. Assessing rookies and adding youth to an owner’s rosters is a key to long term success. Most people playing dynasty are aware of the potential first round players, The difference between good drafts and elite drafts is being able to hit well on the second round and on, for players that will be available in the rookie draft. This year is loaded at wide receiver and offers great depth and upside through the entire rookie draft. I will be taking a look at several players I have watched film on and their prospects for being able to help fantasy teams.

Denzel Mims

Looking even further, receivers are plentiful in this draft. Another receiver that could be a great value in rookie drafts is Denzel Mims. Mims is one of the more physically imposing wide receivers in this draft. His story can be summarized by stats but is not a clear picture. He had 28 touchdowns in three years production and 186 receptions. Mims enters the draft still with some questions. Mims does some things really well, including leveraging his size to block out defenders or win contested catches, his 40-yard dash time will tell a lot at the combine, but his speed while not top end is functional for his size. His blocking will help him see the field as he Is a very good screen blocker and recognizing when he engage defenders, He’s somewhat puzzling at route running but looked unmotivated at times as Baylor consistently read one side of the field, and when it was his side, he had aggressive breaks and could find spots to get The ball. He had some really bad drops but amazing catches. consistency will be key for Mims. Mims showed ability to run with ball to create yards after the catch on designed screens, and was a very consistent scorer. This class is so deep, but Mims could really benefit from a great combine effort to help separate himself, I think that he is a day two talent in a class that will see a lot of these talented WR fall because of the depth.

K.J. Hamler

The first receiver that could sky rocket in value after the draft but is a really good target at this point, is K.J. Hamler. Hamler is 5’9” 178 pounds. He is not large by any means, but is absolutely electric with the ball. Hamler suffered an ACL injury in his last year in high school and redshirted his first year at PSU. In his first year playing Hamler had an instant impact with the most yards as a first year player; breaking Saquon Barkley’s record and following that year with a second season of 56 receptions and 904 yards. He finished his career with 17.05 yards per carry. Hamler has top tier speed that has to be accounted for by opposing teams at all times. Hamler was double covered and made an impact with his speed by having to be accounted for and opening targets for others. His speed allows him to be utilized outside and inside, as well as jets sweeps and carries. He can be used for gadget plays, but his ability to take the top off defenses and win one on one matchups with speed will be noticeable very quickly in the NFL. He’s hard to press because if defensive back misses, he is will blow by them. He has good hands but if given cushion can use speed to push defender back and come back to the ball. He is small and will need to add muscle to sustain through a season and will not have a physical presence in the red zone and must win with speed or play design. Hamler only has two seasons of film but will be coveted and could surprise as a first round pick if he tests well at the combine. He is a lock for the second round and because of his speed could have a Brandin Cooks ceiling in the pros.

Quintez Cephus

This next receiver is quietly gaining momentum through the process but will most likely be a day two or day three pick with real upside. Quintez Cephus started out his career at Wisconsin with minimal impact before contributing more his sophomore year. He had over 500 yards and 6 touchdown before off field issues led him to miss the 2018 season, when he returned his impact was felt with over 400 yards more than his sophomore year and a slight uptick in touchdowns. He is a physical receiver that thrives in contested spots and strong breaks to separate enough. He is able to play through contact and not be overpowered very often. He can play as big slot and outside red-zone threat. His routes aren’t real crisp and while he can use his strength and athleticism to separate the route errors can cause defenders to close quickly. He can make spectacular catches but can have a mental lapse and suffer drops. He was cleared of off field charges but will get a lot of questions from NFL teams about his history, and could fall because of it. Cephus is athletically a top tier WR in terms of build and strength, if he runs a good forty-yard dash, I expect his stock to improve from early day three to late day two. Cephus is a diamond in the rough that could potentially be an early breakout and outplay his draft status, his aggression and size will let him play in the big slot role or on the outside. The draft class he is in is filled with elite players and will push his stock down but don’t be surprised when Cephus emerges as high end WR2 if he gets to the right team.

Devin Duvernay

The fourth and final receiver to highlight is Devin Duvernay. Duvernay played four years at Texas where he played outside receiver for the first three years and scored seven touchdowns and had 1082 yards. His senior year he moved into the slot and had more yards and touchdowns than the previous three years. Duvernay has a good frame at 5’11” 210 and should test well at the combine with agility drills and speed which translates well to the pros, Duvernay looks fit best in the NFL as a slot receiver at the next level but in my opinion could be one of the best pure slots in the draft. He runs routes about pretty well and is able to create separation enough for the catch. He is than able to use his speed and physicality to demand yards after catch opportunities. He’s not going win against the press often but as a slot he should be able to leverage his other skills to win. He has great hands but doesn’t look like he will win a lot of 50/50 balls. Watching his senior year, there is definitely some opportunity for Duvernay to find a niche role, as a big play threat, and his best case is to be a top tier slot similar to a Sterling Shepard if he can improve his route execution.

The 2020 NFL Draft is filled with wide receiver talent. The first round on April 23rd could see as many as four or five taken. Many receivers with day two draft grades will fall because of the sheer size and talent of the class. Don’t focus too much on when a receiver is taken in the 2020 NFL Draft. Focus on which team, as many teams with a need might wait because of the immense amount of talent that will be available on day two and day three. When drafting in your rookie drafts, make sure to keep an eye on these potential gems, and the many others not listed. Good luck and happy draft season!

Rookie Analytics Breakdown

David Marchand

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February 26, 2020

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When I first learned about dynasty leagues, I was intrigued. I loved the idea of keeping players for their entire career and being able to trade draft picks for assets to win now, or conversely moving assets to acquire pieces to build for the future.

The problem I found was rookie drafts. I’d never been a fan of college football, and I already spend enough time playing fantasy football to be watching hours of player tape. However, I’m pretty good with spreadsheets, and so with a lot of thanks to the RotoUnderworld Podcast, I started working on my rookie analysis.

First of all, all the data I’m about to go over is available on PlayerProfiler for free. (I swear they’re not a sponsor, I just like to give credit where it’s due.) I’m also extremely looking forward to the release of the Breakout Finder app, which should introduce us to additional metrics, such as Teammate Score, Dynamic Score, and Level of Competition Score. Until then, we’ll stick with the basics you’ll need for player evaluation.

These break into 3 general categories:

College Statistics
Combine Results
Opportunity

College Statistics

The first and most obvious statistics are going to be based on the player’s college performance. Of course total yards, receptions, touchdowns and all that are incredibly important, but given that not every college game is an even match, certain statistics can be misleading.

QBR

Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) is a statistic that was created by ESPN in 2011 to measure the overall performance of a Quarterback. This metric incorporates passing, rushing, turnovers and even penalties into how much the QB did to help win the game.

Traditionally you look at the best overall QBR year the QB had in college, however, caution should be made based on what year it occurred, and what school the player went to. If the player’s QBR has had a significant drop since their peak year it occurred or played in an easier conference, these are red flags to be aware of. Typically any QBR over 80 is a good sign.

Yards per Reception/Completion/Carry

This is a pretty straight forward statistic. How impressive was this player on each individual play? Were they someone who just compiled a bunch of yards, or were they reliable to make consistently decent-sized plays? Typically this is taken from the player’s best statistical season. However, if this was not their final season in college, those values are often averaged with the data from their last year.

Dominator Rating

The college dominator metric breaks down how much of a team’s offense the player was a key piece of. This statistic is not applied to Quarterbacks since they’re involved in almost every play. It breaks down as follows:

Running Back: Percentage of a team’s total rushing yards and touchdowns that belong to the back. 40% is considered to be excellent for a back.
Wide Receiver: Percentage of a team’s receiving yards and touchdowns that belong to the player. 45% is considered to be excellent for a receiver.
Tight End: Percentage of a team’s receiving yards and receiving touchdowns that belong to the player. 30% is considered to be excellent for a tight end.

This metric is great to see how important a player was a team’s offense. This helps avoid the pitfalls of a weak schedule, as it looks at how the player compared to the rest of his own team.

Breakout Age

Of course, an important factor to keep in mind when reviewing Dominator Rating is the player’s age. 4th-year players have an advantage in that they’ve been coached up longer, and can be more athletic than first or second-year players. This is where Breakout Age comes in. If a player can manage to be a dominant player at a young age, there’s a better chance they have the skills and abilities required to make it in the NFL.

A quarterback’s Breakout Age is when a player posts a QBR of 50 or more in a season. Ideally, you want an age that’s below 20.
A wide receiver’s Breakout Age is when a receiver posts a 20% Dominator Rating or higher in a season. Anything that’s 19 or below is considered excellent.
A tight end’s Breakout Age is when a player posts a 15% Dominator Rating or higher in a season. For Tight Ends, anything at 20 or below is considered solid.

Typically Breakout Age is not something that applies to running backs, as it’s not unheard of for a first-year player to get a significant number of carries, or conversely a strong player being stuck in a time-share.

Combine Results

Of course, College Statistics are only one facet of evaluating a player. It’s also important to keep in mind what level of an athlete the player is. This is, of course, why the NFL holds the rookie combine each year. So let’s take a look at some key stats from the Combine and how to use them for your rookie drafts.

SPARQx

SPARQx was created by a company in Portland, Oregon in 2004 as a way to evaluate a player’s overall athleticism. It stands for Speed, Power, Agility, Reaction, and Quickness. Since then it was acquired by Nike in 2009. The score relies on the following data points:

20 Meter Sprint/40 Yard Dash (Speed)
Kneeling Power Ball Toss & Vertical Jump (Power)
Agility Shuttle (Agility)
Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test or YIRT (Reaction & Quickness)

While it is mostly used as sales tools for shoes and athletic gear by Nike, it still provides us with a simple, single-number metric of a player’s overall athleticism. The exact formula is not available to the public, but analysts have mostly backward engineered how it works.

Speed Score

Speed Score was first introduced by Bill Barnwell in Pro Football Prospectus. The formula is (weight*200) / (40-time^4), factoring a player’s weight into their 40-yard dash time. This essentially gives larger backs more credit when it comes to assessing speed, which is important because larger backs tend to be more durable and harder to tackle, and smaller backs tend to be faster.

Height-Adjusted Speed Score

Much like how the speed score keeps a running backs’s size in mind, Height-Adjusted Speed Scores gives more credit for taller receivers, as height is a key attribute for receivers as compared to running backs. This metric will take the height of the receiver or tight end and divide it by the average height of other players as that position. This is then multiplied to the Speed Score to give more credit to taller receivers or ends.

Agility Score

Agility Score is straight forward, as it’s just the sum of a player’s 3-Cone Drill times and 20-Yard Short Shuttle time. This is important for evading defenders, as well as keeping a strong sense of balance. Agility Score is unique in that it’s the only one where the lower the value is better.

Burst Score

This measures a player’s explosiveness by adding their Vertical Jump Height and Broad Jump Distance. An important metric for wide receivers as strong burst helps them get off the line of scrimmage quicker, and not get redirected by physical Defensive Backs, as well as being able to jump up and receive the ball.

Opportunity

All of the above metrics are helpful in identifying prospects, however, when it’s all said and done, two things are king: Draft Capital and Team Opportunity. Players drafted in the first 3 rounds are more likely to make an impact on their team, and therefore your fantasy team, and always be mindful of what the team drafted them needs.