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Mashup Rookie Mock Draft | Pre-Combine

Format: Dynasty, 12 teams
Rosters
: (1) QB, (2) RB,  (3) WR, (1) TE, (3) R/W/T
Scoring: PPR

We recently had the opportunity to participate a in a rookie mock draft hosted by our friends at True North Fantasy Football. Shoutout to the Jim Nastic for putting it all together. With a 1QB format, the usual top portion of the 1st round didn’t feature Burrow or Tua so the highly touted running backs were keyed in early. One of the standout moments for myself was towards the end of the draft in round 4 where Jim sniped Lynn Bowden Jr. from me.

Round 1

1.01 – Jonathan Taylor – RB – Wisconsin
Corey Spala – @cjalapsFF

Taylor is everything I want for my RB: young (21 years old) and dominant (41.8% dominator rating), while running for the Badgers. Defenses knew what was coming and couldn’t stop him. He is 1st in the NCAA in rushing yards through his first 3 seasons, finishing ahead of Herschel Walker (5,259) at 6,174 yards.

To reconsider this pick, Swift/Dobbins would have to go to the perfect situation and Taylor to the worst situation. I am confident, at this point in time, with Taylor as my RB1 and 1.01 in standard leagues.

1.02 – D’Andre Swift – RB – Georgia
Lukas Kacer – @kacer_lukas – The Candlestick Kids Fantasy

High ceiling potential is something that I like to target in my rookie drafts and D’Andre Swift out of Georgia has exactly that. Swift doesn’t have the career volume the other top backs in this class do, but his playmaking ability in the crowded backfields of Georgia stood out to me.

Georgia always has top notch players in their backfield core, and most of the time they have many in the same year, so Swift’s college career should not go unnoticed, or count against him sharing time with other high level RBs. Swift may have a lower floor than Jonathan Taylor and J.K. Dobbins, but his ceiling is well above and beyond the others.

1.03 – J.K. Dobbins – RB – Ohio State

A case can easily be made for Dobbins to be the RB 1 in this class. Dobbins has good size at 5’10” 217lbs, and showcases excellent wiggle and lateral agility. Stepping onto the field for the first time Dobbins put up 181 yards, and holds the record for most rushing yards by a true freshman debut in Ohio State history.

While his pass protection needs to be cleaned up, that is nothing abnormal for rookies to enter the league needing to improve upon. At this point in the year Dobbins seems to be landing right around this range in non super-flex formats. A good combine and he could overtake Taylor or Swift.

1.04 – Clyde Edwards-Helaire – RB – LSU
Connor Donald – @connorten  – True North Fantasy Football

The future of the NFL RB is not just about rush attempts and yards, but how many different ways can you contribute to the offense. The Clydesdale presents this perfect complement of a future NFL stud running back, mixing a tough running style with an excellent receiving ability. CEH, my RB1 this year, has every opportunity to be the #1 RB out of this draft class, but likely won’t be drafted as such.

The Clydesdale has it all: balance, elusiveness, physicality and vision. His first year as the future back at LSU he had over 1800 scrimmage yards and 17 TDs (215 attempts and 55 receptions). The areas of issue like his pass protection and second level speed can be complemented with the proper RB2 by his side and professional development, but pro comps of Devin Singletary and Mark Ingram should get you extremely excited for his arrival in the NFL!

1.05 – Ceedee Lamb – WR – Oklahoma
Daniel Brown – @DBrownFF88The Undroppables

I absolutely love getting my WR1, 5 picks into this draft, I’m skeptical that he would fall to this point in most single QB drafts, but I’ll take the easy money. CeeDee Lamb may lack top end speed but he has aggressive hands and is top tier from this class with contested catches and ball tracking ability.

Lamb looks incredibly natural and is always looking to make a play once the ball is in his hands. Lamb has put up incredible statistics since high school. If you like a player with proven production, Lamb is the cream of the crop.

1.06 – Jalen Reagor – WR – Texas Christian
Jim Nastic – @goldjacketQBsTrue North Fantasy Football

Reagor is my WR2 and 4th overall prospect in the draft at this point in the season, whether you’re a film or analytics guy there is something to love. It’s a personal choice for myself but I have Reagor slightly ahead of Jeudy and this was an easy slam dunk pick for me.

Jalen possesses blazing speed and at 5’10” has an incredible leaping ability to high point footballs. He had a young breakout age, amazing dominator rating, and has shown the ability to play with multiple QB’s. In my opinion, Jalen has the highest ceiling of any WR in this year’s class, and I knew he wouldn’t come back around to me in the 2nd

1.07 – Jerry Jeudy – WR – Alabama
Cristian Ognibene – @CrisDynasty

Jerry Jeudy is my WR 2 (behind Ceede Lamb) and 3rd overall prospect behind D’Andre Swift. If you are able to land Jerry Jeudy at 1.07 consider yourself very fortunate. I consider Jeudy the most polished route runner in this class with the most diverse route tree.

Listed at 6’1, 192, the major concern is his lighter weights and durability issues. I don’t see this issue coming to fruition. Jeudy has spectacular after the catch abilities and constantly eludes tacklers. To me, he is the most scheme-independent wide receiver in this class and has the highest floor of the tier 1 wideouts. If he reaches his full potential, which I expect, he will be a WR 1 for years to come, if not, you are still looking at a safe floor.

1.08 – Tee Higgins – WR – Clemson
Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football

With my top tier of running backs all off the board, my decision came down to Tee Higgins or Cam Akers. While Akers and Clyde Edwards-Helaire round out my second tier of running backs, Tee Higgins is firmly in my tier 1 of Wide Receivers along with Ceedee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy.

My decision to select Higgins was based not only on my ranking tiers, but also the career longevity of Wide Receivers as well as Higgins’ potential to be a #1 target for an NFL team. While a great landing spot could sway me towards Akers, there is still uncertainty as to whether he will be an every down back in the NFL. Higgins’ 19.8 Yards per reception and 6 yards after catch per reception in 2019 were too good to pass up! (I’m a Canadian eh! (your friend AWL))

1.09 – Cam Akers – RB – Florida State
Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables

One of my favorite RB prospects in this class, I was ecstatic to grab Akers here at the 9th spot in a 1QB rookie draft. With a 5-11, 212 pound frame, Akers has the prototypical three-down RB build and projects in a true bellcow back with above average pass protection and receiving skills. Catching 30 passes for 225 yards and 4 TDs, the former Seminole flashed his upside as a running back who can do it all. But make no mistake, Akers is an impressive runner with power, agility and contact balance. On the other hand, Akers will likely slip into a RBBC at the next level although he is good enough to eventually take the lead role and possibly win leagues down the stretch (like another pass catching RB who I was very high on in 2019).

1.10 – Justin Jefferson – WR – LSU
Shane Barrett – @ffShaneB – Fantasy Football Astronauts

Most of my RB targets who were first round worthy went early and often, so I was narrowing it down between 3 WRs: Jefferson, Shenault and Ruggs. I ultimately chose Jefferson because he has excellent route running ability that parallels Jeudy, he’s got speed to be a deep threat, and he’s highly athletic.

Justin had 111 receptions in 2019 for over 1500 yards and 18 TDs, and he wasn’t even the best WR on his team (but he is still dang good)! Ruggs had the advantage in speed, but I wasn’t sold on him because he never took over Alabama’s receiving corp in a meaningful way and Shenault has minor injury concerns and those factors ultimately led me to taking Justin Jefferson.

1.11 – Zack Moss – RB – Utah
Dan – @awlsabermetrics 2on1: Fantasy Sports

Moss is someone that seemed to be getting some solid pump, but may be cooling off a little bit in the twitter community. Drafting this late in the first round and knowing it would be awhile until it came back to me, I tried to imagine a team of mine picking this late and what I would want to bolster it. To be honest I was expecting Ruggs to go at 1.10 so I was really in a toss up between the two of them but decided on the RB that has shown some wiggle, as best seen in a recent PFF post showing Moss forced a missed tackle on 30% of his rushing attempts at Utah. The highest-rate in the Draft class. He is not the fastest back in the class, but there have been some notable running backs that haven’t been blazers and have still been highly productive. Player wise a common name Moss is compared to is Kareem Hunt. Securing a running back that has shown shiftiness and a pass catching ability (and maybe a date with the Steelers), he ended up nudging out Ruggs for me.

1.12 – Henry Ruggs – WR – Alabama

Speed is the name of the game with Henry Ruggs. Reportedly set to run sub 4.3 second forty, Ruggs’ potential draft capital might render this a steal at the end of the first round. Not only is Ruggs a speed threat, his work in the screen game and routes over the middle garnered him over 10 Yards after the catch per reception. Ruggs has also shown plus body control and ball tracking skills that should translate nicely to the NFL. With almost certain high draft capital, Ruggs should have a clear path to opportunity as a pro, and has regular week winning upside for his fantasy owners.

Round 2

2.01 – Laviska Shenault – WR – Colorado
Corey Spala – @cjalapsFF

My WR3 available at pick 13? Easy decision. Standing at 6’2 with speed and playmaking ability, Shenault has shown the ability to do it all. He can catch passes in the slot, use the boundary or line up in the backfield taking direct snaps- Shenault is utilized all over the field. If schemed out, Shenault can be an easy PPR threat. As the draft inches closer and Shenault continues to test out, I expect him to be a likely first round pick that I am happy to take here at 2.01.

2.02 – Tyler Johnson – WR – Minnesota
Lukas Kacer – @kacer_lukas – The Candlestick Kids Fantasy

Man, I really wanted Shenault at this pick, but the production machine Tyler Johnson will be just fine. To start, Johnson is listed at 6ft 2in and 205lbs, already checking off one important box- his size. After that, he easily checks off every single mark in the production category as he broke out at age 19 and has produced well over 1,000 yards and double digit touchdowns the last two seasons. Oh yeah, I didn’t even mention his 98TH PERCENTILE college dominator rating. For some reason it seems as if NFL scouts really aren’t behind the Tyler Johnson bandwagon like I am, but I am happy to take Tyler Johnson at this pick.

2.03 – K.J. Hamler – WR – Penn State

Hamler is a slippery runner with boom potential in the NFL. With deep speed to spare and electric after the catch ability, if Hamler gets a clear path to volume he can shine on Sundays. Hamler’s deceptive route running and wiggle should translate nicely to the NFL. Hamler does lack physicality and doesn’t project as a contested catch winner, but in the right slot role he could be a quality producer for fantasy teams.

2.04 – Brandon Aiyuk – WR – Arizona State
Connor Donald – @connorten  – True North Fantasy Football

Aiyuk is an intriguing all purpose WR with an impressive combination of size (6’1) and speed. Coming off a season where he made the most of 65 receptions (1,192 yards, 8 TDs and 18.3 per reception). He is my WR4 so getting him at pick 16 is a big win! I take him behind Ruggs and over Higgins, the skill set and ceiling for Aiyuk I believe will translate better to the NFL then Higgins.

He is a YAC machine who explodes with speed and acceleration and can create his own plays with some impressive change of direction. If he can improve physically against corners whether at the LOS or for a contested catch, then he will smash through his ceiling! Don’t sleep on Aiyuk, his mismatch ability with his speed and size is the epitome of a shifting NFL receiving landscape!

2.05 – Bryan Edwards – WR South Carolina
Daniel Brown – @DBrownFF88The Undroppables

Listed at 6’3” and 215 pounds, Edwards uses every bit of it in his playing style. A great redzone weapon, Edwards uses his big frame to shield off defenders and make contested catches like a mad man. I would love to see him develop his route tree a bit more, and at times his routes and cuts are not sharp. Physical grit and mentality make every catch a potential house call; Edwards is a nightmare for opposing defenders once he has the ball in his hands as he looks to punish any defensive back that stands in his way.

Edwards also shows the ability to adjust to defenses, while throwing them numerous route combinations, showing great awareness, to compliment his large frame. I’m hoping for a quality landing spot on Day 2 or 3 of the NFL draft.

2.06 – Ke’Shawn Vaughn – RB – Vanderbilt
Jim Nastic – @goldjacketQBsTrue North Fantasy Football

Simply put at 2.06 Ke’Shawn was the best available running back on the board, never having a shot at Swift or Taylor my approach at drafts is to grab best available player regardless of team need and it’s easy to fall in love with Vaughn.

At 5’10, 218 pounds, Vaughn isn’t being brought down with arm tackles, he’s shifty and powerful and if I can’t grab one of the top four consensus backs I’m happy waiting until the mid-2nd to snatch up Ke’Shawn. He might not be a three-down back, but at this point in the draft he definitely has the highest floor in my opinion.

2.07 – Joe Burrow – QB – LSU
Cristian Ognibene – @CrisDynasty

With both of the top QB options available here I took my pick with Joe Burrow. Tua Tagovailoa and his health issues are a concern for me at this stage in the off-season. This past collegiate season we were fortunate enough to watch one of the best College QB performances of all time as he won a SEC Championship, National Championship, and broke the record for most Passing touchdowns in a season with 60 (5 in the National Championship Game against Clemson).

Burrow has elite intelligence with pre-snap and coverage reads, very good timing and anticipation, and excel’s at deep throws. On top of that, he has toughness and composure to extend plays and can move the chains with his legs when the opportunity strikes. Simply put, he is a QB that can make explosive plays. Burrow is a do it all QB who should be the #1 overall pick in NFL and Superflex leagues. Adding him at this spot could give you a top 5 quarterback play for many upcoming years. I expect early returns as he will be given the ball early for an NFL team.

2.08 – Tua Tagovailoa – QB – Alabama
Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football

Accuracy, decision making, football IQ, and poise are the name of the game for Tua. While not an elite arm talent, he routinely drops beautiful dimes into the bucket on deep passes, as well as showing great touch and ball placement on short and intermediate routes. Tua’s clutch factor is undeniable. His resume includes 1 SEC championship, appearances in 2 National Championships, winning 1, and a plethora of other notable big games. This guy is the real deal.

With Joe Burrow off the board one pick earlier, I knew the Quarterback dominoes were about to fall so I decided to pounce. Although devalued in one quarterback leagues, Tua is a Quarterback who profiles as a Franchise cornerstone in the NFL. Adding him as a likely successor to the starting role on my fantasy roster felt like a great value and a no-brainer in the back half of the 2nd round.

2.09 – Antonio Gandy-Golden – WR – Liberty
Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables

As Tua was sniped just one pick earlier, I decided to hit the best player available with AGG left on the board. Gandy-Golden isn’t known for elite athleticism but he is a contested catch monster with strong hands and an unbelievable catch radius. But, AGG has several holes in his game outside of a lack of athletic ability. He sorely lacks route running ability and has trouble beating press coverage despite his plus size. The Liberty alum did improve his draft stock with an impressive week of Senior Bowl practices but he remains a question mark and a likely day 2 or 3 selection. A late 2nd round pick feels right for a highlight machine who will need to develop several areas of his game to make an impact in the NFL.

2.10 – Eno Benjamin – RB – Arizona State

Shane Barrett – @ffShaneB – Fantasy Football Astronauts

Eno was the best RB available at the time and I felt like I had to take him at 2.10. He runs hard, has decent speed, and he does that one thing we all want our RBs to do… except Booger McFarland… which is catch the ball. He doesn’t go down easy and fights for yards. Eno also had quick feet, allowing him to be pretty shifty and evade tackles or gain extra yards. I’m really happy to get Eno at 2.10.

2.11 – Jake Fromm – QB – Georgia
Dan – @awlsabermetrics 2on1: Fantasy Sports

I think it is fair to say Fromm is someone that draft Twitter isn’t a big fan of. He doesn’t have the strongest arm of the class, he isn’t a crazy dual-threat guy, and generally doesn’t have the most awe-inspiring highlight tape like we have seen from people in the past. BUT what Fromm does have is experience running a professional style offense, the knack of making some big boy throws, and what might be the best thing going for him, probably not being taken by a dump team early in the draft. A probable second to third round pick to more developed teams where Fromm can use his skills with better players and systems around him, make him a very interesting prospect to me. Is 2.11 too early for Fromm? Yea probably, but if he goes to a team like the Patriots, Steelers, or Titans, with time to develop, he could easily move up people’s boards due to what will be around him. Continuing my thought process of taking this draft as if my team was set and needed depth and rising the bottom of the roster, I can certainly see Fromm being steady-eddy Eli Manning-esque quarterback. Never someone that is going to light the world on fire (except for two wild postseason rides), but also someone that isn’t going to flame out because he is only there on some unknown piece of athleticism like a few other QBs in this class being taken over him.

2.12 – Devin Duvernay – WR – Texas

Another speed receiver, Duvernay’s combine could dictate his draft position. A smaller receiver with great speed and after the catch ability, he caught 105 of his 129 targets in 2019 for just under 1400 yards and 9 touchdowns. With more than half of those yards coming after the catch and 4 of his 9 touchdowns going for more than 40 yards, Duvernay has an intriguing big play skill-set that NFL teams love.

Round 3

3.01 – Justin Herbert – QB – Oregon
Corey Spala – @cjalapsFF

I’ll make a chess move and take a QB in the 3rd round, especially a QB that is drafted in the 1st round of the NFL draft. Not excited about getting Herbert, excited about the potential at the value I took him at.
Analytics aside, getting a starting QB (by mid-season or next year) in the 3rd round is a no-brainer to me. One year of development and I can reap the rewards of the ROI this pick-value has, especially if a contending team unexpectedly needs a QB or if a team needs a QB the following off-season for various reasons.

3.02 – Denzel Mims – WR – Baylor
Lukas Kacer – @kacer_lukas – The Candlestick Kids Fantasy

I recently wrote an article saying to sell Denzel Mims at the price he is going for, but at this pick he was easily the best available. Another size worthy WR coming in at 6ft 3in and 206 pounds, there is a ton to love about Mims. A sub-20 breakout age and a 86th percentile dominator only makes my confidence grow when evaluating him. Mims really shined at the Senior Bowl and I am hoping that will raise his draft stock for a team to invest in him early. There is high potential for this 3rd round player.

3.03 – Michael Pittman Jr. – WR – USC

At 3.03 you have to feel good grabbing Pittman here. He is a physical monster who has NFL heritage running through his veins. After seeing what Seattle accomplished with D.K. Metcalf last year, it’s hard not to imagine another NFL team trying to use Pittman in a similar way.

Pittman can easily become an immediate fantasy contributor and if you’re the type of person who likes big bodied physical wideouts, then Pittman is right up your alley and at the cost of an early 3rd round rookie pick. It’s a swing most would be willing to pay.

3.04 – Van Jefferson – WR – Florida
Connor Donald – @connorten  – True North Fantasy Football

Van Jefferson has an underappreciated skill at the college level which his stats don’t speak too; route running. Jefferson has the best technique in the class, probably better than a majority in the NFL as well. In 4 seasons at college, he finished with a limited stat line: 175 receptions, 2,159 yards, 16 TDs and 12.3 yards per reception. Nothing that pops off the page, but his technique could make him a strong secondary WR option on most teams in the NFL.

Todd McShay compared him to Juju in regards to athleticism and route running ability and we all see what he has managed to do in his short time in the NFL. If the ceiling for Jefferson is Juju like, he will have a bright future! There is nothing sexy about technique for fantasy players, but the elements that technique brings in regards to separation and ability to get open equals great PPR potential! He will be 24 when his NFL career starts, but at a position which can go for 10+ years like a receiver, this is not reason for concern this deep in a rookie draft.

3.05 – Jalen Hurts – QB – Oklahoma
Daniel Brown – @DBrownFF88The Undroppables

In the middle of the third round, most of the big name QB prospects had been selected. I decided to take the upside of Hurts in hopes that the “mobile QB” movement is on the rise in the NFL. Hurts was able to improve his passing ability each year in college, which coupled with his natural running ability will serve him well. While he still can improve on many things, Hurts’ best feature is the ability to extend the play with the use of his mobility.

I would love to see him get some draft capital (early Day 2), but I’m tempering my expectations. I don’t believe he is the next Lamar Jackson, but the upside is there, and I’ll take that in the 3rd round.

3.06 – Gabriel Davis – WR- Central Florida
Jim Nastic – @goldjacketQBsTrue North Fantasy Football

Probably my most controversial pick in this draft, you either love the big bodied red-zone threat or you don’t want to touch him with a 10 foot pole. At this point in the draft only Davis and Isaiah Hodges represented the best upside from my perspective. I figured Hodges could fall back to me in the fourth round so I selected Gabriel.

If Davis lands on a team like Baltimore or one of the New Jersey teams (ya that’s right, I said New Jersey!), I think he gets an immediate boost to his draft stock as a potential threat in the red zone. And in the 3rd round I’m more than willing to roll the dice with Gabriel.

3.07 – Hunter Bryant – TE – Washington
Cristian Ognibene – @CrisDynasty

In Fantasy Football one of the most valued positions is tight end. At 3.07 I selected the first TE of the draft and my TE1. At 6’2” 239, with a stat line of 52 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns, Bryant is someone I project as a difference maker in the NFL. As a NFL comp, he reminds me of an Evan Engram type coming out of college.

Lets just say Bryant has the ability to be a matchup “nightmare” out of the slot or on the LOS. I don’t see him as a complete TE when it comes to blocking so it may be a couple years before production. Although if he lands on a team needing a receiving TE, look for Bryant to make a splash early and often.

3.08 – Lamical Perine – RB – Florida
Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football

After taking Higgins and Tagovailoa with my first 2 picks, I was loosely targeting a RB with this pick. Being that this draft was done without a roster to add our picks to, I was looking for a balanced haul. My strategy wasn’t rigid, but the flow of the draft allowed for this balance when Lamical Perine fell into my lap in the third round.

Perine’s counting stats certainly don’t jump off the page. His best rushing season was 2018 where he went for over 800 yards and scored 7 touchdowns and had 6.2 yards per carry. The upside for me was in the passing game. His 35 receptions in 2019 were the fourth most of any Senior Running back, and 15th in the nation at that position. Add to that an impressive showing at the Senior Bowl, and Perine has the tools to be a valuable piece if he lands in the right offense.

3.09 – Isaiah Hodgins – WR – Oregon State
Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables

When looking for rookie WRs this late in drafts, I target those big-bodied receivers who can develop into an alpha at the next level. Not only is size important, but good hands and elite body control are critical traits for those prototypical X receivers. Producing elite numbers in a Power 5 conference, Hodgins seems to be flying under the radar. While he lacks top end speed, he has long strides and has been a solid deep threat during his time at Oregon State. His lack of route running ability will hurt his draft stock but that is something he can develop.

3.10 – Cole Kmet – TE – Notre Dame

Shane Barrett – @ffShaneB – Fantasy Football Astronauts

TE #1 at 3.10? Sign me up. Twice. Kmet is athletic and large. He’s good after the catch especially for someone at his size. He can be a safety valve for a QB like he was for Ian Book at Notre Dame. Oh yeah.. He’s an ND TE and we all know they produce in the NFL. You may have to be patient with him because the process of getting TEs acclimated in the league is typically not a year one impact, but it’ll be worth it especially at 3.10.

3.11 – Thaddeus Moss – TE – LSU
Dan – @awlsabermetrics 2on1: Fantasy Sports

I think Shane got mixed up with his write-up, because Moss is the TE1. He checks a lot of boxes you like to see from a Tight end. He has shown a strong ability and the desire to be a run blocker, something NFL coaches value, but he isn’t a blocking-only TE. Now he isn’t his Dad in regards to downfield big-play ability or explosiveness, but has shown a decent enough route tree with reliable hands.

Tight ends almost always take some time to develop and produce at the NFL level, but what Moss has going for him is his run-blocking ability. Now that might not get him fantasy points, but the more he is on the field as a rookie, the more opportunities he will have to catch some passes too, especially in the end zone. O and the second big thing he has going for him is that his pops also played in New England and caught quite a few passes from Brady so Thaddeus will have a good connection already going into camp in Foxboro in a few months.

3.12 – Jordan Love – QB – Utah

Jordan Love is a high upside QB out of Utah who, if coached up, has NFL level tools in his arsenal. A strong arm and mobility are his best assets, while he showed some struggles with turnovers and consistent accuracy in 2019 with the Utes. Love only completed over 60 percent of his passes in 5 games as a Senior, and threw 16 interceptions to boot. In the third round, as the QB6 off the board, there was good value in a potential future NFL starter.

Round 4

4.01 – Brycen Hopkins – TE – Purdue
Corey Spala – @cjalapsFF

Alright let me just take…okay, I guess it’s you – I was planning on taking a TE in the 4th and with Hunter Bryant and Thadd Moss taking before, I’ll take my next best up.
Having the 1.01 likely means my team is in need of a rebuild, I’ll gladly take a shot at the TE position as my team is not contending for this upcoming season. I’ll use a 4th round pick to stash a TE or put on the Taxi Squad.

4.02 – Darrynton Evans – RB – Appalachian State
Lukas Kacer – @kacer_lukas – The Candlestick Kids Fantasy

I love this small school back and not enough people have their eyes on him. When given the full time starter role, Evans was able to post two 1,000+ rushing yard seasons while maintaining a 72nd percentile dominator. He is a little bit on the smaller side at 5ft 9in and 190 pounds, but if he shows out at the combine then I think a team may bite and give him a shot to prove himself. All in all, the 4th round is just a bunch of shots in the dark players anyways so why not take a shot on an elusive back?

4.03 – Anthony McFarland – RB – Maryland

McFarland could be a steal if he lands into a role similar to how the Vikings used Alexander Mattison. A dynamic “one cut and go” slasher, McFarland can hit home run balls in a flash when he has a lane. While he may not get workhorse volume as a pro, he’s a player who could be efficient on fewer touches to provide value from deep on fantasy benches. To get him as a flier in the 4th round of a rookie draft is great value.

4.04 – K.J. Hill – WR – Ohio State
Connor Donald – @connorten  – True North Fantasy Football

Drawing comparison to Julian Edelman is a tall order to fill, but KJ Hill does have an incredible talent in the slot and I fully expect his value to increase closer to the draft, for now I will proudly take this pick! At 6’0 but only 195 lbs his play strength is what limits him to the slot. He has been the epitome of consistency at Ohio State while having 4 different QBs. Over his career, he amassed 195 receptions, 2,003 yards and 20 TDs in 4 seasons (262/1, 549/3, 885/6 and 636/10).

Hill will be limited to slot receiving, which will mean he will rely on checkdowns and turning short passes into bigger plays with his route running and speed. He’s got great attributes and his strong showing at the Senior Bowl practices paired with a good combine could boost his draft value, especially for teams in need of help in the slot.

4.05 – Antonio Gibson – WR – Memphis
Daniel Brown – @DBrownFF88The Undroppables

Antonio Gibson may be the most versatile athlete in this class, sitting at 6’ 2” and 220 pounds, he played multiple positions throughout his collegiate career. A true mismatch gadget player that gives defensive coordinators nightmares, Gibson displays a nice mix of wiggle and power with the ball in his hands.

Gibson’s dual-threat ability as a runner and pass-catcher could make him one of the biggest risers in this entire 2020 class. He should be a good fit on any NFL roster, and being able to contribute in multiple facets should get him playing time immediately. I love the upside that Gibson represents with this selection in the 4th round.

4.06 – Lynn Bowden Jr. – QB/WR – Kentucky
Jim Nastic – @goldjacketQBsTrue North Fantasy Football

At this point it’s all about upside and who has more upside than the modern day Kordell Stewart? I listed Bowden as a WR and a QB although I suspect he’ll be used as a WR. He has shown the capability of running an offense as a Quarterback which shows me his football I.Q. is high enough to carry over to the NFL level.

I suspect whoever drafts Lynn in April will have plays schemed up for him as he can run jet sweep, take wildcat formation snaps, and line up outside and run routes. I feel truly sorry for defensive coordinators in 2020 if Bowden is unleashed properly. In an NFL where everyone is looking for the next big cheat code Lynn Bowden Jr. could very well be it.

4.07 – Donovan Peoples-Jones – WR – Michigan
Cristian Ognibene – @CrisDynasty

In the fourth round I was between two WRs; Donovan Peoples-Jones and Chase Claypool. In this round, I normally aim for players who have the highest ceiling. To me, if they bust it’s only a late 4th round pick wasted, but if they hit its gold.

Donovan Peoples-Jones is a big-bodied WR with clever footwork. He is a player with big-play ability and great awareness on the sideline, while being clutch in critical moments. He was underutilized in Michigan and will hopefully land with a team that utilizes him out of the slot. Donovan Peoples-Jones will be a much better NFL player than college.

4.08 – Adam Trautman – TE – Dayton
Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football

This was completely an upside play. Trautman has risen up my board and currently sits as my TE3 in this 2020 class. With a basketball background, Trautman’s size/athleticism combo is something to behold. He went for over 900 yards and 14 TDs in his Senior season at Dayton and did nothing at the Senior Bowl to dispel the hype. At 4.08 I couldn’t pass up a player who, in my opinion, we could look back at as the best TE to come out of this class.

4.09 – Quintez Cephus – WR – Wisconsin
Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables

An All Big Ten Honorable Mention in 2019 and 2017, Cephus has been nothing short of a producer when he has been able to avoid off-field issues. Cephus missed the 2018 season due to sexual assault allegations, only to return this past year to put up over 900 receiving yards as a junior. Despite the off-field concerns, this WR is worth a dart throw at the end of any rookie draft although he will likely creep into the late 3rd round in most drafts come April/May.

4.10 – Chase Claypool – WR – Notre Dame

Shane Barrett – @ffShaneB – Fantasy Football Astronauts

Capping off his career with a very good senior year, he is a tall, athletic receiver. At 6’4” 230lbs there has been some talk of him moving to TE which he could do and still be a threat. 1,037 yards, 31.6% market share and 13 TDs as a Senior make me very happy to get him at 4.10. He could be a situation-dependent receiver, but any team should be happy to add him to their receiving corps later in drafts, NFL or fantasy.

4.11 – Omar Bayless – WR – Arkansas State
Dan – @awlsabermetrics 2on1: Fantasy Sports

Still early in the process, but Bayless is one of my sleepers of the 2020 rookie draft class. He went for 93 receptions for 1,653 yards and 17!! touchdowns this past season, which isn’t too shabby. I know the small school knock is there, and a 31% target share is a pretty significant amount of looks- it would be hard not to produce with that many passes thrown your way. But watching him play he shows good hands and contested catch ability. He measurables could help shed some light on where he goes next, but currently in mid-February, he doesn’t seem to be getting a ton of hype and for a 4th round rookie pick, I would definitely feel happy taking him and seeing what happens.

4.12 – Jauan Jennings – WR – Tennessee

Jennings is a smooth, big-bodied wideout with good hands and after the catch ability. He ran out of the slot for the most part at Tennessee, Jennings is by no means a burner but he proved to be a crafty route runner who can win with separation and body control. Jennings has the talent to far outplay this, the final pick of the rookie draft.

2019 Statistical Outliers

At the end of each season, it’s important we look back and see what happened in the regular season to get us to the standings we have now. Once draft season comes back around, whether it be rookies or a fresh startup or redraft league, it’s important to look past what the end of the season standings are and see what a player’s real value might be.

So let’s look back at this past season to see which players had seasons that stood out statistically from the players in the tiers around them. Does this information mean you should definitely buy or sell a player? Absolutely not, but it may help you find where a player could be over or undervalued currently, and make a move that pays off in the long run.

Quarterback

Lamar Jackson

They say you should start big, so here we go. It’s no doubt to anyone that Lamar Jackson had one of the most incredible seasons as a Quarterback in the NFL, but the real question is how much of this can he keep up?

Let’s start with his rushing. It’s been well documented that he ran for over 1200 yards over 15 games. That’s an average of 80 yards a game! How does that compare to other Quarterbacks? In 2019, the top 12 Quarterbacks averaged 23.3 yards a game. That’s a difference of nearly 60 yards!

Of course, Lamar is not your typical Quarterback, but if you look at other QBs known for using their legs, you see the following:

  • Josh Allen averaged 32 yards a game
  • Russell Wilson averaged 21 yards a game
  • Dak Prescott averaged 17 yards a game

When you average those 3 out you get 23.6 yards a game, not much higher than our top 12. Now, I’m not saying that Lamar is going to rush for 40 yards less a game next year, but he’s going to be hard-pressed to keep up this rate. NFL Defenses adapt, and he is a prime candidate to regress to the mean in this category.

Which brings us to the next thing to talk about with Lamar: touchdown passes. Lamar threw 36 touchdown passes over a mere 401 passes this season. That’s a 9% touchdown rate, which is absolutely absurd! The next closest are Ryan Tannehill at 7.7% and Drew Brees at 7.1%, both of which had amazing seasons themselves. Otherwise, the top 12 Quarterbacks in the league averaged 5.1%, which is more what you usually expect from a quality NFL Quarterback.

To put this in some context, in 2018 Patrick Mahomes had an 8.6% touchdown rate and Russell Wilson had an 8.2% touchdown rate. Both elite Quarterbacks that had very successful years, but they dropped to 5.4 and 6% touchdown rates respectively. I’m not saying Lamar isn’t going to be a top-end QB1 going forward, but after a magical season like this past one, you may not see a higher value on him.

Kyler Murray

The other extreme on the touchdown rate scale this past year is Kyler Murray. Kyler threw 20 Touchdowns over 542 pass attempts in 2019. That’s a meager 3.7% touchdown rate. Ouch.

So, what happened with Kyler? Well, again, looking at the top 12 QB’s in 2019, they had an average of 4,042 yards on 544 attempts, compared to Kyler’s 3,722 yards. So we’re definitely a little shy in yardage, but they also threw an average of 27 Touchdowns. 300 yards shy does not add up to a deficit of 7 touchdowns!

Assuming 6 points per passing touchdown, adding 7 more touchdowns to Kyler over 16 games would average an extra 2.6 points per game. While that may not sound like much, that moves him from QB 11 to QB 9 this past season. Combine that with a player many are expecting to improve in his second season, and Kyler is someone you need to be targeting in Dynasty Leagues!

Running Back

Christian McCaffery

Christian McCaffrey was pretty much a cheat code this season. He scored 113 more fantasy points than the next position player, Michael Thomas, and 123 more fantasy points than the next Running Back, Aaron Jones. Playing McCaffrey was pretty much the same as playing Nick Chubb and Marlon Mack in the same roster spot.

The crazy thing, though, while he was amazing this season, the only real category he stuck out wise statistically was opportunities. His 287 carriers puts him only behind Henry, Zeke, and Chubb, and his 141 targets dwarf’s all other running backs, with Ekeler at 108 and Fournette at 100 as the only other backs in triple digits. In fact, he had more targets than 6 of the WR1’s this year!

Otherwise, his fantasy points per opportunity, while in the top 25% of all running backs, was not a real statistical outlier. It’s actually around what you’d expect from a top running back. Sure, McCaffrey is absolutely elite and will likely remain an RB1, but will a new coaching staff keep using him at this level to create his insane level of production? This might be the best time to sell him at the crazy value he’s currently at.

Austin Ekeler

Now, if you want to talk about statistical outliers in fantasy points per opportunity, you need to look at Austin Ekeler. Over 16 games in 2019, Ekeler managed to score 1.09 fantasy points per opportunity [Fantasy Points / (Targets + Carries)]. To provide a little context, here are a few other players:

  • Christian McCaffrey = 0.96 FFP/Opp
  • Derrick Henry = 0.87 FFP/Opp
  • Leonard Fournette = 0.61 FFP/Opp

That means that Ekeler was nearly twice as valuable as Fournette when he was given the ball. What does that mean for the future? Well, that all depends on the Chargers. If Melvin Gordon walks, and the Chargers don’t spend any major draft capital on a running back, Ekeler could turn out to be one of the top backs in 2020, even if his efficiency drops some. Of course, the Chargers could also make the mistake of letting Ekeler walk, as he is a restricted free agent this year.

Leonard Fournette

So why was each opportunity twice as valuable for Ekeler as it was for Fournette? Well, one needs to look no further than the touchdown column. Over 15 games, Fournette only ran in 3 touchdowns. For the top 12 Running Backs, the next worst 2 were Mixon and Kamara, who each rushed in 5 touchdowns. Kamara was hurt for much of the season, and Mixon was stuck on a terrible offense behind a horrible line.

In fact, the average number of rushing touchdowns for an RB1 not named Fournette is 10. If you add 7 more touchdowns to Fournette, his per-game average goes from 14.76 to 17.56, taking him from the RB14 in points per game to RB7, right between Zeke and Saquon. While I don’t think we can expect 100 targets a year for Fournette, any regression to the mean in touchdowns should greatly increase his value.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown

There’s no doubt that A.J. Brown broke out in the second half of 2019. Averaging over 4 receptions a game after Tennessee’s BYE week, Brown was one of the gems of the 2019 receiving class. He actually managed to score 2.18 fantasy points per opportunity, which was #1 for all Wide Receivers in 2019. For some context, compare the following:

  • A.J. Brown – 2.18 FFP/Opp, 19% Target Share, 12% Hog Rate
  • Michael Thomas – 1.61 FFP/Opp, 35% Target Share, 19% Hog Rate
  • Chris Godwin – 1.93 FFP/Opp, 12.5% Target Share, 12.5% Hog Rate

That is incredible production for a rookie wide receiver! The main factor is the 9 touchdowns he scored on a mere 84 targets (and 3 carries). That puts him at a 10.34% touchdown rate. Thomas was only at 4.85%, and Godwin at 7.44%. Since touchdowns are the least predictable stat, there’s a decent chance that A.J. Brown could be at his highest value, but given he’s only a rookie, it could be really interesting to see where he goes from here.

Kenny Golladay

Speaking of crazy touchdown rates, the only WR1 that even comes close to A.J. Brown’s 10.34% is Kenny Golladay who scored 11 TD’s on 116 targets, for a 9.48% touchdown rate. Here are the next closest players:

  • Chris Godwin – 7.46%
  • Cooper Kupp – 7.46%
  • Tyler Lockett – 7.27%
  • Devante Parker – 7.03%

Everyone else in the top 24 is less than 7%. Outside of the top 24, you’ll also see Darius Slayton and Marvin Jones in the WR3 tier are also in the mid 9 percentile, but these players were extremely boom or bust for your team, each having huge multiple touchdown games.

What does this mean for Golladay? It’s tough to tell. He’s a little low in targets compared to the other receivers around him, but given he was stuck playing with David Blough for much of the season, we may not have to worry too much. At the same time, he had a number of games where he just vanished, including a couple with Stafford. He may be a high-risk payer going forward.

Tight End

Mark Andrews

There’s no doubting Mark Andrews burst onto the scene this year, ending up as the TE4. But the crazy thing about this is he managed to do it while only being on the field for 41% of this team’s snaps. That’s far below the 68% TE1’s saw in 2019. In fact, the 3 TE’s ahead of him, Kelce, Kittle, and Waller averaged an 86% snap share. More than double what Andrews saw.

So where did all this production come from? Well, first of all, Andrews had a whopping 21% hog rate. That meant 1 out of every 5 plays went his way when he was on the field. No other Tight End was over 15%. Combine this with the fact that Andrews scored 10 touchdowns this year on a mere 98 targets, that puts him at a 10.2% Touchdown rate, and a 1.78 Fantasy points per opportunity. Again, for context:

  • Travis Kelce – 4.4% TD rate, 1.50 FFP/Opp
  • George Kittle – 4.5% TD rate, 1.60 FFP/Opp
  • Darren Waller – 2.5% TD rate, 1.48 FFP/Opp
  • Zach Ertz – 4.4% TD rate, 1.27 FFP/Opp

While Andrews is a great player, and Baltimore is a team that loves to target their Tight Ends, it’s hard to imagine Andrew’s numbers, and therefore his value staying this high. Of course, if Baltimore puts him on the field more, those concerns could go away, but Baltimore seems to be a team that likes to rotate their players.

Dalvin Cook Injury Outlook

Before I get started, it would be beneficial to read my broader overview of running back injury rates and how it might affect your fantasy team first. So at some point, you should check that out. Now that’s out of the way, I need to say that this Dalvin Cook Injury Outlook is personal to me. Not that I don’t already pour every ounce of brainpower into each injury outlook (I do), but it’s just that this specific player holds a special place in my fantasy football heart. I’ve been going back and forth in my head about which two guys to keep between Leonard Fournette, Dalvin Cook, and Miles Sanders in one of my keeper leagues. So, what kind of mental gymnastics does a medically-inclined fantasy football player go through?

TLDR

  1. Dalvin Cook is statistically one of the best fantasy running backs in the league with unmatched upside (other than Christian McCaffrey). His median fantasy points per game in ten games is 20 compared to 16 for Zeke, D. Henry, and Aaron Jones.
  2. He’s is also statistically one of the biggest injury risks among top-five fantasy running backs in the league. Theoretically, his chances of another ACL tear are approximately 20%. His chance of dislocation for one shoulder is 13%-26% and 40%-50% for the other.
  3. There might be a much more insidious reason for his specific connective tissue injuries, but even if he’s not the history places him at high risk on its own.
  4. This isn’t a “splitting hairs” type of decision. There’s plenty of objective information that would reasonably lead you to avoid Dalvin Cook depending on the opportunity cost.

The Upside

How can you ignore it? Cook is one of those players who has the ability to carry you to a fantasy ‘ship. When doubts creep in about his injury history (I’ll get there in a moment) all I think about is him catching that classic Stefanski screen pass and bursting forward for a 20 yard gain. Then I remember how the Vikings’ game plan every week is to establish the run so hard that a portal to 1969 opens up at the 50 yard line (shout out to C.D. Carter for that joke).

So, in an effort to prove myself wrong, I plotted Cook’s fantasy points per game of Week 1 through 10 of the 2019 season. I compared those average scores against the numbers put up by Ezekiel Elliot, Derrick Henry, and Aaron Jones in their first ten games of the season. The result is below in the box and whisker plot.

Dalvin Cook Injury Outlook

The median is the midpoint of a data set. So 50% of scores lie above the median and the other 50% lie below.

The orange shaded box is Cook’s average fantasy points per game. Statistically, it essentially represents his expected ceiling/floor for that stretch of games. The lines that extend outside of the boxes are statistical outliers. The X in each box is the median score for both data sets. The blue shaded box represents the same for Zeke/D. Henry/A. Jones combined.

Cook’s median fantasy points in his first ten games of the season is 20. The other three players’ median is 16. Although this is only a sample of ten games, there’s no reason to believe in that offense with Cook’s talent that it’s a statistical fluke. However, I’ve been told that every rose has its thorn.

The Injury History

March 2018 –  Right shoulder dislocation/subluxation

March 2016 –  Right shoulder dislocation/subluxation

October 2017 – ACL tear with two hamstring strains to follow

December 2019 – Sternoclavicular (SC) subluxation/sprain

December 2019 – Left shoulder dislocation

Dislocations damage the glenoid labrum, which provides stability for the head of the humerus (upper arm bone) to remain in the glenoid (shoulder socket). To help visualize the shoulder joint, imagine that the humerus is a golf ball and the shoulder socket is the tea. The labrum is cartilage that surrounds the outer edges of the golf tea. When the cartilage is damaged, the joint becomes less stable. This is a major issue long term due to the chance of developing osteoarthritis. Reportedly, Cook’s first shoulder dislocation was actually in high school.

Don’t let the fact that he came back for the playoffs to dominate fool you- Cook’s shoulders are an absolute injury liability. In fact, there’s a 40%-55% chance that he re-dislocates the left shoulder in 2020. What’s worse, there’s still a 13%-26% chance he re-dislocates the right shoulder. I won’t even get started on the fact that roughly 20% of NFL players who tear their ACL have a second tear at some point in their careers.

Are you starting to see why this Dalvin Cook Injury Outlook is so polarizing? Furthermore, what really worries me about Cook could be a bit more insidious.

The ACL is a ligament and the SC/labrum is cartilage, but fantasy analysts love sneaking in the term “soft tissue” into their analyses of players. Why no love for the connective tissue? Anyway, isn’t it curious to you that Cook’s major injuries primarily involve connective tissue (ligaments/tendons/cartilage)?

Conditions such as hypermobility syndrome and Ehlers-Danlos, although relatively uncommon, are not unheard of and many individuals can go about their daily life without ever knowing they have it due to its enormous variability in presentation.

As usual, I feel the need to clarify what I’m not saying before moving forward:

I have not examined Dalvin Cook.

I do not know Dalvin Cook’s official medical history.

I am not reporting that Dalvin Cook has one of the above conditions.

What I am saying is that Dalvin Cook has a well-established history of instability injuries and “dysfunctional” connective tissue. Even if this pattern did not seem suspicious and Cook isn’t hypermobile, at this point his chance of re-injury is objectively high.

The Decision

So, to summarize this Dalvin Cook Injury Outlook:

  1. Dalvin Cook is statistically one of the best fantasy running backs in the league with unmatched upside (other than Christian McCaffrey). His median fantasy points per game in ten games is 20 compared to 16 for Zeke, D. Henry, and Aaron Jones.
  2. He’s is also statistically one of the biggest injury risks among top-five fantasy running backs in the league. Theoretically, his chances of another ACL tear are approximately 20%. His chance of dislocation for one shoulder is 13%-26% and 40%-50% for the other.
  3. There might be a much more insidious reason for his specific connective tissue injuries, but even if he’s not the history places him at high risk on its own.
  4. This isn’t a “splitting hairs” type of decision. There’s plenty of objective information that would reasonably lead you to avoid Dalvin Cook depending on the opportunity cost

Cook carries a legitimate re-injury risk overall, so holding Sanders along with Kirk or Fournette is very realistic for my level of comfort at this point. The flip side is that I wouldn’t blame you for drafting/holding Dalvin Cook either. No risk-it, no-biscuit, baby amirite?!

So, what will you do?

2019 Statistical Review | Lamar Jackson

(Photo: Nick Wass/AP Photo)

Lamar Jackson had one of the best fantasy seasons of any player last year, doing so in a manner different than that we have ever seen. Lamar was electric, rushing for over 1000 yards and passing for over 3000 yards. His unique skillset begs the question: is his incredible season repeatable? Here, I’ll examine the various aspects of Lamar’s season, and will discuss if he will be worth a top pick next year.

Rushing

Lamar Jackson’s most distinctive attribute is his rushing, as his elusiveness and quickness allow him to break large runs and frustrate defenses. Let’s examine his rushing stats last season, and see how this can be interpreted with respect to fantasy.

Lamar Jackson had the most single-season rushing yards as a quarterback in his first full season as a starter, (although he sat out Week 17), with 1206 yards. This shattered Michael Vick’s previous record of 1039 yards set in 2006. This equates to 28.6 percent of his total fantasy points this season and finishes 6th in total rushing yards at ANY POSITION. The next leading quarterback rusher was Kyler Murray at 544 rushing yards, giving Lamar a 66.2 fantasy point advantage over any other quarterback just based on rushing yardage alone!

When factoring in his 7 rushing touchdowns which is second in the league at the quarterback position, he gains a massive advantage. If isolating his rushing stats against running backs, he would rank as the running back 15 from Week 1 to Week 16 in standard leagues (DNP Week 17). This includes receiving yardage and receiving touchdowns from the other backs, which is obviously lacking for Lamar due to his position. His efficiency was outstanding, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt and 80.4 yards per game. This rushing is sustainable barring injury, as the creativity of the offense and the use of designed runs provide a stable rushing attempt floor, as seen by Lamar’s 23rd most rushing attempts by any player this season. His total rushing fantasy points (including rushing touchdowns), would be 162.6 points.

Passing

The knock on Lamar entering the 2019 season was his passing. In 2018, Lamar sported a 58.2% completion percentage and a measly 171 passing yards per game in his games started. This rose to a 66.1 percent completion percentage and 208 passing yards per game. Although the yardage may seem low considering his MVP season, it is largely due to the team’s successes this year and not needing Lamar to lead the league in pass attempts. Baltimore ranked 29th in the league in total pass attempts, averaging less than 30 per game. Lamar’s deep ball pass rate was middle of the pack, with 60 passes totaling over 20 air yards this season, 4 per game. This makes the defense respect his deep ball to targets such as Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown, and opens up shorter targets or designed runs that build a stable floor and improved ceiling for Lamar.

One of the most common knocks on his season in terms of projecting fantasy success in the future is his passing touchdown rate, at 9%. This is a massive increase from his 3.5% TD rate in 2018 and is a target for regression next season. This led the league by 1.3%, and to put this into perspective the 13th quarterback in passing touchdown rate was Aaron Rodgers, at 4.6%. Historically, top quarterbacks have averaged around a 5.4% touchdown rate, and regression to a number similar to this would be projected for Lamar next season. On the other hand, Mark Ingram’s 15 touchdowns are also due for regression, and some of these could transfer to Lamar next season. Overall, I project regression in total touchdowns, however, he will still be elite in this area. His total passing fantasy points would be 259.08 points. This alone would place him as the QB 12 through Week 16.

Looking Forward

Lamar Jackson will be drafted, and deservedly so, as the first quarterback off the board next year in most fantasy drafts. His unique skillset gives him the highest floor of any quarterback, tied with a monstrous ceiling that only a couple of other quarterbacks could dream to reach. This begs the question, how high SHOULD he go in drafts next year (assuming 1 QB)? Lamar Jackson’s total fantasy points above the next best quarterback was the second biggest such margin this year in half-PPR leagues, scoring approximately 90 more points than Deshaun Watson (through Week 16). Christian McCaffrey was the only player with a larger total fantasy points lead above the next best at his position, with a nearly 120 point margin.

In retrospect, Lamar Jackson’s season should have placed him as a first round pick last year, however looking forward due to touchdown regression and offensive total regression, I value Lamar as a late second round pick (from preliminary research). In comparison, I had Mahomes as a late fourth round pick last year, so this demonstrates my confidence that Lamar can continue his dominance, albeit in a slightly reduced fashion. For dynasty, as long as Lamar can stay healthy, he will be dominant for the next 7-8 years while his athleticism and elite rushing abilities persist.

Can’t Cut List | Mike Liu

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Can’t Cut List is our way of showcasing the friends, partners, and affiliates of The Undroppables. Fantasy Football has been a way for us to connect with people all over the world, allowing us to make strong bonds and friendships. Throughout the way, we’ve been fortunate enough to connect with the industry’s top upcoming names. Meet some of the brightest minds that have influenced us in our processes.

Math Wiz

One of the first people we wanted to sit down with was Mike Liu (@MiKeMeUpP), a fantasy football addict and member of #TeamAnalytics. If you haven’t come across Mike on Twitter, you’re probably not doing it right as he is one of the select few who have successfully blended analytics with tape despite his strengths in manipulating data.

Before we dive into Mike as a fantasy football diehard and savant, here is some background on who he is as a person when off the Twitter machine.

Mike grew up in Toronto, Canada and lived there for most of his life. After studying mathematics, accounting and finance (which lends itself very well to this game of probabilities that we play), Liu eventually found his way to California for work. Since then Mike has been working a full-time career in the finance industry, crunching numbers, manipulating spreadsheets and identifying outliers in heaps of mind-numbing digits.

In the offseason and during free time, Mike enjoys attending live sporting events (he recently attended the 2020 CFB National Championship Game) and playing poker. Mike has competed in the World Series and World Poker Tour – Bahamas, holding his own against the pros as he’s been able to leverage is understanding of probabilities.

#TeamAnalytics

Because he’s spent so much time in spreadsheets, Mike has been naturally been inclined towards data and analytics and has gained the skills to make the numbers work for him. It also doesn’t hurt that the NFL has evolved and gravitated towards a more analytics-driven approach. Mike is also more inclined towards analytics because he does not have hundreds of hours to grind tape (although he’d love to).

On the other hand, Mike has tremendous respect for the tape grinders because there are so many nuances to the game that a casual fan doesn’t understand. As Mike concedes, the normal eye isn’t able to see while a seasoned tape grinder can identify the outliers. In the end, however, Mike stresses the importance of both (analytics and tape) to be successful in fantasy football, because there are so many variables and “no one truly understands how these variables affect each other.” It just so happens that Mike grew up and worked in numbers his entire life. Mike knows he isn’t a film guy so he will look to the film guys to see what they’re saying about prospects. Then Mike will take a deeper dive with analytics.

Diving into his approach, Mike utilizes a “bettor’s mindset” as he used to bet a lot of sports. This is based on finding an edge through data. What can you do to get more information on a player? As Mike puts it, analytics may not identify the hits, but helps you weed out the busts by increasing your odds of hitting by reducing the pool of potential misses.

Changing the Game

After a solid run with Dynasty Nerds, Mike was recently recruited to Dynasty League Football by legends Ryan McDowell (@RyanMc23) and Ray G (@RayGQue), adding to a powerhouse lineup. It was a tough move for Mike as the Nerds provided him with an opportunity to break into the industry, but the opportunity to learn under some of the top analytics minds (e.g., Peter Howard, Drew DF Bean Counter) was one Mike couldn’t pass up. At DLF, Mike will be continuing to churn out dynasty and devy content. So make sure to lock in that premium DLF subscription.

It’s no secret (or surprise) that Mike is quickly becoming a thought leader but he remains humble and eager to learn. Crediting names like Ray G, Garrett Price from the Nerds and Nick from BDGE, Mike isn’t afraid to glean knowledge from experienced minds. Liu also looks to gain insight from up and coming analysts including friends of the fam, JetPack Galileo for JPG’s signature cut-ups; Jim Nastic, a fellow Canadian who loves to interact with others on Twitter; and David Zach who is putting in some great work with yards created by running backs.

Stacking Chips

It’s all about results in this game and in the past year, Mike took down 5 fantasy football championships, improving from 4 the year before. This was also his first year playing DFS and ended up in the black while developing a process to build. A 9% ROI in year one is nothing to be disappointed with. Suffice to say that Mike’s process has proven results.

Draft Szn Quick Hits

Here are 4 names Mike has his eyes on heading into the 2020 draft season:

  • Cam Akers – Mike has been beating the drum before the 2019 season started. Looks like a rRaw prospect when Mike watches him, but he is the most physically gifted athlete with the highest ceiling. Some of the jump cuts he made were just insane.
  • Tua Tagovailoa – Best QB prospect since Andrew Luck. Mike discovered Tua from watching “Elite 11” and really wishes he didn’t get injured. Regardless, Tua is still Mike’s QB1 in this class.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire – Another guy that Mike has been high on. A really good pass catcher, elusive, and doesn’t go down on first contact. CEH feels like he has a safe floor.
  • Jalen Reagor – A better and more complete version of Henry Ruggs. Reagor is extremely athletic, can beat press, and boasts high percentile scores in breakout age and college dominator rating.

Words of Wisdom

“Engage with people and put out good content.”