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Man or Machine | First Look At the 2020 Rookie RB Class

Randal Kennedy
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Man or Machine | First Look At the 2020 Rookie RB Class

One of the most hotly debated topics in the fantasy football community over the last few years has been the value of running backs. Ten years ago one wouldn’t think of starting a fantasy draft without two solid running backs. But with the rule changes that have allowed passing offenses to take over the NFL and the popularity of point per reception (PPR) leagues. Owners have been forced to look elsewhere to make up running back production. With backfield committees becoming the norm, a premium has been placed on true three-down work horse backs.

So I’ve reached back out to Devy guru @RayGQue and uncovered the five rookie backs most likely to make an impact on your fantasy team in 2020 and beyond. And if you’re not familiar with his work make sure you check out his podcast Destination Devy and get the jump on your league.

D’Andre Swift – Georgia

It can be hard to earn carries at “Running Back U.” But the talented Swift forced his way into a rotation that included Nick Chubb and Sony Michel. The words tenacious and speed are peppered throughout every scouting report written about this kid. Put on his tape and you immediately see why. A true game-breaker who’s a threat to score from anywhere on the field, Swift possesses explosive speed and tremendous vision that allows him to get to the edge. His excellent contact balance allows him to absorb punishment and gain chunks of yardage. Swift possesses deadly skills as a receiver. He is a true hands catcher who easily nabs the ball away from his body and is also sound in pass protection. Swift projects to be a true three-down workhorse and most likely will be the first back taken at this years NFL Draft.

JK Dobbins – Ohio State

Dobbins is a downhill runner who stays behind his pads and finishes runs. His instinctual vision borders on a sixth sense. When you watch Dobbins, you can see that there is no wasted motion, everything works in concert with something else. Dobbins displays natural and fluid executing cuts with precision timing. He is also incredibly quick to the hole. A combination of size and lateral agility make him extremely difficult to tackle in open space and the first defender rarely brings him down. Dobbins plants well outside his frame and displays plus acceleration but not blinding speed. He’ll need to work on his route running and pass protection but has all the skills to be a three-down starter in the NFL.

Jonathan Taylor – Wisconsin

Another patient runner who allows blocks to develop. Hits the hole with decisiveness. Don’t let his 220lb frame fool you. Taylor possesses plenty of speed. He ran a 10.3 100 meter dash and is more than capable of leaving defensive backs in his wake. Displays an impressive blend of size and speed. He is rarely tackled by one defender, and his ability to absorb contact is terrific.  He keeps his legs churning and always falls forward to finish runs. Relentless effort that punishes defenders as the game wears on. Ball security has been an issue and something he’ll need to work on at the next level.

Cam Akers – Florida State

Akers is a downhill runner that displays great athleticism and is hard to bring down. There aren’t many running backs who have his blend of agility and balance in confined space. Finishes runs with authority and seeks out contact. Also demonstrates good body control through contact. (Contact balance). Makes dynamic cuts and generates burst off of them. An above-average receiver who displayed a multi-layered route tree. Above-average pass protection, Akers projects to a three-down workload in the NFL. Poor offensive line play/scheme led to impatience and a tendency to bounce runs. But make no mistake. This kid possesses the frame and authoritative style to serve as a workhorse at the NFL level. He sets the tone and wears down opponents with formidable physicality.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire

Edwards-Helaire is a smooth runner who’s movement looks effortless. He is very light on his feet and a dynamo in the open field. He’s not the fastest straight line runner but it’s important to remember, when you evaluate RB’s, it’s rare for them to see 40+ yard windows of opportunity at the NFL level. Burst is much more important. And Edwards-Helaire has that in spades. The LSU product displays precise crisp jump cuts. Again, effortless motion that allows him to change gears instantaneously. Very good lower body strength. Tremendous contact balance. Arm tackles aren’t going to bring him down. He has an above average skill set in the passing game and reliable hands. He creates separation like a receiver. If he can shore up his pass protection he will easily be a three-down back at the NFL level.

Market Watch | January 2020

Chalk
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Market Watch | January 2020

Market Watch is where we dive into the ever-changing values of players in dynasty formats. Whether it’s an opportunity to buy low, sell high or even buy high, sharks never sleep.

? Bullish: These are players who are trending up, causing optimism for future prospects and performance.

Chris Carson – Finishing as the RB12 in PPR formats despite missing a game and a decent amount of touches to Rashaad Penny, Carson has been slipping in Superflex startup drafts in January. With a January ADP of 60.3, the Seahawks lead back is being drafted in the 6th to 7th rounds on many occasions as a mid-level RB2. With the aforementioned Penny siphoning carries, Carson still managed 278 carries of his own for 1,230 rushing yards and 7 TDs. And while not known for pass-catching abilities, Carson hauled in 37 catches on 47 targets, showing he isn’t a slouch in the passing game. He is only 25 years old and sits comfortably as the top dog in a run-first offense led by Russell Wilson. Carson will continue to see a plethora of red zone and goal line work and with Penny out with a significant knee injury, Carson looks primed for a big 2020 season with hopes that he will see the same or more workload with only Travis Homer and CJ Prosise on the depth chart at the moment. Of course, Seattle may add a running back in the loaded free agent and rookie RB classes, but that is yet to be seen. Penny has high draft capital invested in him and despite lackluster performances and a major injury, it is likely that Pete Carroll hastily moves on. The Seahawks lead RB is a buy low, only in the sense that he will only get more expensive if any reports of a Penny setback come out of Seattle.

Sentiment: Buy Low

Robert Woods – One of the most underrated throughout his entire career, Woods has never garnered the attention or respect of the players in the tiers he’s found himself in over the past 3-4 seasons. Last season, Woods once against finished a rock-solid WR2 (WR14) while averaging 15.5 PPR points per game in an offense that was up and down at best. Goff’s struggles have punished Woods’ early offseason ADP where he sits at 76.1 (WR30) in Superflex startup drafts in January. In the middle of a long term contract with the Rams, Woods isn’t going anywhere and the offense is built around players like him who are versatile chess pieces. Woods will continue to eat as a top 25 wide receiver while being valued as a WR3. This is where a savvy owner can take advantage of an irrational misperception of a player.  To put things into perspective, Woods outscored Mike Evans in 2019.

Sentiment: Buy Low

? Bearish: These are players who are either trending down or show cause for concern regarding their future prospects and performance. We’re looking to sell these players.

Derrick Henry – Henry went on another rampage in 2019 and produced a top 5 season at the running back position. Over the past 1 1/2 seasons, Henry has arrived as many expected for years. Unfortunately, he became King Henry about three years too late and as he enters his age 26 season, he is at his peak value. The sell sentiment here is not due to a concern that he will fail to produce at an elite level, but it is to get ahead of the curve and sell a year (or even two) early but at the highest price possible. There may not be a better time to sell Henry who is currently going as early as the 1.12 in Superflex PPR leagues (!) but is generally going in the 2nd rounds with an ADP of 22.1. As an example of the value, I recently packaged Derrick Henry and Ian Thomas for Alvin Kamara. It was a fair deal and both sides walked away happy but DH’s current market value allows him to be moved for bonafide elite 1st round startup cornerstone RBs. TFinally, Henry is a free agent and his future has some uncertainty although he will likely resign with the Titans. But there is always the chance that he ends up in a situation without Conklin and that Tennessee run-blocking line.

Sentiment: Sell High

Raheem Mostert – Mostert has been shredding up the league over the past month or so, capped off with a historical performance the NFC Championship. After starting the season off as the third RB on the depth chart, Mostert has climbed his way to the top albeit with the help of injuries to Coleman and Breida. But to give credit where it’s due, Mostert seized the opportunity (as he did last year) and ran with it, literally. Mostert isn’t known as a grinder but more of a slasher, speedster type that relies on his speed, burst and agility to make plays. The downside is that Mostert will be 28 years old when the 2020 NFL season kicks off and the 49ers backfield will remain muddled at best over a long offseason with packed rookie and free agent rookie classes headed this way. Shannahan has shown that his brand of football is tough defense with running the ball with a large committee. Coleman is likely a cap casualty with zero dead cap attached, Breida is a restricted free agent, leaving McKinnon and Mostert as the two RBs that will likely be in San Francisco come August. There will surely be one or two more RBs to be added as well whether either or both incumbents in Coleman and Breida return. Regardless, this is peak value for Mostert and I’ll gladly move him for a 2020 2nd+ if I get an offer.

Sentiment: Sell High

4 Facts About Running Back Injuries

Edwin Porras, SPT
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4 Facts About Running Back Injuries

Silver bullets! The idea of silver bullets is nice, isn’t it? Drink activated charcoal and it’ll help you detox (not true by the way). Eat a ton of small meals throughout the day and burn fat (not true either). Draft a quarterback late and win your fantasy league (S/O JJ). Okay that last one is true more often than not, but you catch my drift. Although players like Will Fuller show a consistent pattern of recurrent and similar injuries and earned the skepticism about durability, the same cannot be said about skill players in general. Do we really know when a group of players is prone to injuries? How does this affect the way we draft our fantasy football team? I’ll dive into 4 Facts About Running Back Injuries you need to know before stepping into the fantasy football draft room this summer.

TLDR

  1. Plan for RBs to miss 1-3 Games per season. So, draft extra mid-tier or high-upside running backs, go wide receiver heavy and stash a few rookie/mid-tier running backs, or more seriously consider a handcuff early on in the season.
  2. Concussions and ankle sprains are the most common RB injuries and can occur at any given time. So, a handcuff potentially holds a higher value than the traditional consensus because every game counts. This obviously depends on your league size/bench depth etc.
  3. For running back purposes, high work volumes (300+ carries) do NOT lead to more injuries in but we cannot answer why this is the case.The only conclusions we can draw are that players with 300+ carries actually missed less games than players who had around 150-250 carries in a season. There was no relevant difference in size, or age between these two groups. The conclusion we can draw is to not automatically assume that workload, age, or size are independent predictors of injury. Context matters and there’s no way to tease those variables apart from each other.
  4. For fantasy purposes. Running backs who are 27 or older rarely finish as top 5 PPR RBs. Over the last five NFL seasons, the top five PPR running backs average age looks like this: 28, 25, 24, 23, 24. The oldest RBs in the sample of 275 total players was 28 years old. So, try and roster talented running backs 26 or younger to optimize your ceiling.

Plan for RBs to Miss 1-2 Games per Season

A study from 2004-2014 analyzed NFL running backs and their work volume over a total of 11 NFL seasons. The authors split the 275 running backs into two groups:

Group A: RBs who carried the ball 150-250 times (moderate volume).

Group B: RBs who carried the ball 300+ times (heavy volume).

They tracked each RB for two consecutive seasons, starting with the season when they met one of the above criteria of the groups. From now on, I’ll refer to them as “group A” or “group B”.

It turns out, 62% of all running backs in the study missed, at least one game in the second season they were tracked. Even worse, many of them missed an average of three games in season one of being tracked. That tells us that, regardless of volume, running backs are very likely to miss time due to injuries. For reference, in 2019 seven of the final top 12 running backs in PPR formats missed at least one game. In the case of Dalvin Cook (6th), Alvin Kamara (9th), and Saquon Barkley (10th) it was more than one game.

What’s the action plan here? Well, it depends on the situation and your league settings, but there are a few options to consider:

  1. Draft extra mid-tier or high-upside running backs to use when your starters (likely) go down with injuries.
  2. Draft wide receiver heavy and stash a few rookie/mid-tier running backs.
  3. Seriously consider a handcuff early on in the season.

There’s more than one right answer to most things in life, right? Many analysts don’t recommend that last one, but perhaps we should look at it differently due to the next fact.

 

 

 

Games Missed

 

 

 

 

 

We Can’t Predict When Injuries Will Happen

This is a critical component of 4 Facts About Running Back Injuries. Besides the fact that this study found RBs (and LBs) have the highest incidence of knee surgery in the NFL, our first study concluded that concussions and ankle sprains were the most commonly cited injuries that cause missed time in both group A and group B. This is important to discuss because those injuries unlike tendon ruptures, muscle strains, or “overuse” injuries, are nearly impossible to predict. A concussion can happen on snap 199 in Week 15. Similarly, an ankle sprain can happen in Week 2 (looking at you, Saquon) or in Week 14. The key here is that carrying a handcuff potentially holds a higher value than the current consensus. After all, you can’t win your fantasy football championship without making the playoffs. Every game counts.

High Work Volumes Don’t Necessarily Lead to More Injuries in NFL Running Backs

You might have been vibin’ with me up until this last point, but I promise I’m not crazy. Hear me out, as the numbers don’t lie. Our first study set out with the primary goal of determining whether heavy workloads (300+ carries) lead to more injuries and more missed time compared to moderate workloads (150-250 carries). What they discovered was not expected. Group A missed at least one game during the second season they were tracked about 66% of the time. This is in contrast to only 49% for group B. The researchers also pointed out that age/height/weight/BMI did not significantly impact the difference in missed time between the groups. They were all very comparable. To clarify even further, the players all fell within the following biometric ranges and differences between them were negligible.

  • 22-28 years old
  • 5’8″- 6’1″
  • 207lbs- 243 lbs
  • BMI between 29kg/m^2- 32kg/m^2

You might be saying “well of course if they were injured more, they didn’t get as many carries. Duh.”

However, the difference in carries also was not considered to be “statistically significant” meaning that even after adjusting for the amount of time missed, the math concluded, with 95% certainty, that Group A still would have missed more time compared to Group B during both seasons they were tracked.

An even simpler explanation is that the authors and the stats team ran mathematical simulations with this study over and over…and over and over…and over and over again. They did this until almost every theoretical scenario had been accounted for and Group A still missed more games than Group B.

The key takeaways are this:

  1. We cannot answer why this is the case.
  2. This study does not account for fantasy points or overall productivity.
  3. The only conclusions we can draw are that players with 300+ carries missed less time than players with 150-250 carries and
  4. There was no relevant difference in size, or age between groups.

Again: this does not account for production in real life football or fantasy football. 

For reference, in 2019:

  • Only Derrick Henry and Ezekiel Elliot topped 300 carries.
  • Nick Chubb saw 298 carries
  • Christian McCaffrey had 287 carries.
  • Carlos Hyde, Phillip Lindsay and Miles Sanders all had fewer than 250 carries.

The take away here is simple: when it comes to durability, don’t automatically assume that workload, age, or size are independent predictors of injury, especially if they fall within the ranges I give above. Context matters and there’s no way to tease those variables apart from each other. I know this isn’t a perfect way of evaluating RBs, but 4 Facts About Running Back Injuries is about connecting the dots as best we can.

RBs Who are 27 or Older Rarely Finish as Top 5 PPR RBs

Now, moving away from NFL football and shifting into fantasy football mode.

In the study I mentioned, there was no difference in age between those specific two groups. That means age was not a reason for group B to miss less time. However, the study did not analyze average age of top-finishing running backs. Luckily I have that data (shout out to @fantasyinafew)

Over the last five NFL seasons, the average age of top 12 PPR RBs goes like this:

  • 26
  • 25
  • 24
  • 23
  • 24

Over the last five NFL seasons, the top five PPR running backs looks like this:

  • 28
  • 25
  • 24
  • 23
  • 24

Mark Ingram is the oldest top 12 fantasy RB in 2019 at the age of 29. The next oldest? Derrick Henry at 25. To further drive the point home, in 2015, three RBs who were 27 years old or older, finished in as a top five PPR back. Since 2016, only three RBS of that age have finished as a top five PPR back. It’s not that older RBs can’t have big seasons, but they’re fewer and farther in between compared to the young bucks.

This puts a perfectly neat bow on our study from earlier. The oldest RBs in the sample of 275 was, you guessed it, 28 years old.

The takeaway? Try and roster talented running backs 26 or younger to optimize your ceiling. Is this always the case? No, but we’re playing the probabilities here.

Before you all come after me with flames and pitchforks, please understand I realize the primary study I mention has limitations. In fact, the study itself discusses limitations in the conclusion. Also, please keep in mind that I’m simply delivering the best evidence available on NFL running back health in order to help you make better fantasy football decisions. ELE.

The goal of 4 Facts About Running Back Injuries wasn’t to tell you what to do. It isn’t even to give suggestions Instead, the goal is to provide you with data and point out patterns of what’s most likely  to happen. This is a game of probabilities after all.

 

 

Tight End Tier Jumpers

The Undroppables
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Tight End Tier Jumpers

The Tier Jumpers series takes a look at the fantasy landscape to identify players ready to make the leap into the next positional tier in dynasty rankings. In this installment, the focus is on tight ends. Let’s start by looking at the current state of the position, then identify our Tier Jumpers ⬆️.

Consensus tight end rankings courtesy of our in-house analysts.

Tier 1 – The Elites

The top tier of tight ends is small, occupied by two elite players.

George Kittle is an energy-fueled beast whether he has the ball is in his hands or not. He has earned the reputation of a superb blocker who never needs to leave the field. His 107 targets led his team and were 4th most at the position and his 9.8 yards per target were 3rd amongst tight ends with over 40 targets. San Francisco’s devotion to the run game caps his ceiling, but his floor is rock solid. His complete skillset at 25 years of age cements him atop the list of TEs in dynasty, with some room to grow. ↗️

Travis Kelce set up a permanent residency in the top tier with a 233.5 point season back in 2016. Four seasons and four top finishes later, he continues to dominate. Showing no decline yet and aided by the hottest QB and offense in the game he looks to continue producing at a high level for the next few years. ➡️

Tier 2 – The Studs

Tier 2 is a mix of proven veteran and upcoming young studs.

Zach Ertz has finished in the top four the last three years thanks to his brother-like connection with Carson Wentz. But now Ertz is entering his age 30 season with young and talented Dallas Goedert pushing him for targets. Looking forward, Ertz’s dynasty value should see a gradual decline into Tier 3 over the next couple of seasons. ↘️

Mark Andrews ended his second season in the NFL ranked 4th in points among tight ends. His 98 targets were 5th among TEs, which is staggering considering that he only plays around 50% of the Ravens’ offensive snaps. This is troubling and potentially caps his ceiling as a TE in an innovative run-first offense he should be on the field for at least 80%. Until he improves his run blocking, Andrews isn’t primed for a leap, but at only 23 he has time to improve his game. ↗️

Austin Hooper has become a reliable target for his team over the past few seasons. Unfortunately, Hooper’s situation comes with some uncertainty as Hooper is set to hit free agency in 2020. His landing spot, if a premiere one, could elevate his situation. On the flip side, depending on where Hooper lands, his value and progression into the next tier could be torpedoed. Hooper has shown stretches of high output, averaging 20.1 points per game from Weeks 3-7, which was the 4th highest 5-game split amongst TEs. So for now, he is a “wait and see”. ➡️

Hunter Henry has all of the tools needed to elevate his dynasty value, but has to stay on the field to make it happen. Through four seasons Henry has only started 35 of 64 possible regular season games. A gifted athlete who ran a 4.66 at his Pro Day and an asset in the run game, Henry is an offensive coordinator’s dream. Who that coordinator will be in 2020 is yet to be determined. Along with Hooper and Eric Ebron, Henry will be a free agent in 2020, making it an extremely strong TE group this offseason. Regardless, as things stand now, Henry will likely be a player on the rise in 2020. ➡️

Evan Engram is an elite athlete armed with 4.42 speed and a 36” vertical, striking fear into opposing linebackers and defensive backs. Though not known for his blocking, Engram is still able to find his way on the field, notching nearly 80% of his team’s offensive snaps in 2019. Like Henry, however, Engram isn’t reliable in the health department. The Giants tight end has not played more than 8 games in either of the last two seasons. Entering his fourth year in the league, the former first round pick will be working with his third head coach and offensive system. If he can battle through the hurdles of health and an unstable environment, he has the physical gifts to be a top TE in the league. For now, Engram is a hold, but be prepared to watch his value skyrocket if things go his way in the future with Daniel Jones improving under center. ➡️

Tier 3 – Watch Closely

This is the group with the highest expectations of growth.

T.J. Hockenson was the 8th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, making him the highest drafted tight end since Vernon Davis in 2006. At 6’5” and over 250 pounds, Hock is a stud blocker and acts like an extra offensive lineman on the field. What he lacks in straight-line speed, Hockenson makes up for in burst and ability to separate easily from linebackers. After catching 6 receptions on 9 targets for 131 yards and a TD in Week 1, the fantasy world was ready to claim him the next big thing. Unfortunately, he couldn’t sustain that usage hitting the rookie wall and then ending up on IR. With that said, all signs point towards growth here though and savvy owners should be looking to buy from disappointing ones. Like all players at this scarce position, I expect a big jump from TJ in years two and three. Get him while you can still afford him. ⬆️

Darren Waller was a complete surprise in 2019. Finishing 2nd among tight ends in completions and yards, Waller proved to be Derrick Carr’s weapon of choice. Since 2010, the top 3 yearly TE’s have an average age of just under 29 years old and score around 240 points. Entering his age 28 season, Waller will look to continue the continuity he’s established with Carr. If Waller can improve upon his subpar 2019 total of 3 TDs, he should firmly remain in top 5 at the position. If you are in win-now mode he is a buy. ↗️

Noah Fant is another uber-athlete looking to establish himself in the upper levels of the TE landscape. A monster on the field at 6’4, 250 lbs. with elite speed (4.5/40) and mind-blowing hops (39.5” verical), Fant is a big play waiting to happen. Serving as a willing, if not solid, blocker kept him on the field for up to 86% of plays a game as a rookie and this 22 year old still has tons of room to grow, both physically and as a professional tight end. With Denver developing a young offensive core, lead by gunslinger Drew Lock, Fant is a must-buy for me. ⬆️

Dallas Goedert is a great player and has the potential to produce top 5 results, but is stuck behind Wentz’s favorite Zach Ertz. With Ertz signed in Philly through the 2021 season, it is hard for me to see a clear path to stardom for Goedert in the near future. The Eagles run a lot of two TE sets with 12-personnel, so Goedert still managed 87 targets last year. This gives him decent floor, making him a great low price option in two TE or TE premium leagues, if not in more standard setups. ↗️

Tier 4 – Reason For Hope

These players have disappointed, but give us some reason for hope that a breakout is coming.

Some fantasy owners are still holding out hope for the 19th pick in 2017 Draft, O.J. Howard. A player that possesses the physical tools, but seemingly not the intangible ones, he has found it hard to beat out fellow Buccaneer TE Cameron Brate. Younger players with more upside like Dawson Knox or Will Dissley are smarter targets for your money at this point. ↘️

David Njoku is another 1st round draft pick that enticed fantasy owners with his athletic skillset. Unfortunately, a dysfunctional Browns offense and a wrist injury kept us from reaping the reward of his complete toolset. Njoku can be had for next to nothing right now and could be a smart buy if the price is low, or he could disappear into the pool of averageness. ➡️

Tyler Higbee is a player was mostly slept on by the fantasy community but demanded attention with a blistering finish to the 2019 season. Over the final five games he posted an average of 21.44 points per game, the highest 5 game split by any TE all season. Entering his age 28 season in 2020 with a lot of momentum, Higbee will be a target for owners subject to recency Time will tell if that is a prosperous move or not. I’m buying, but with trepidation. ↗️

Last, but certainly not least is Mike Gesicki. A 2nd round draft pick of the Dolphins in 2018, Mike shows amazing athleticism with a 4.52/40 and a 41.5” (not a misprint!) verticals with a grown mans body (6’6” and 250 lbs). Gesicki had some bright spots in 2019 that left dynasty owners salivating for more. His 76% of offensive stats over the last seven games of 2019 show us he is earning trust though he has to improve on his abysmal 57% catch rate. I’m buying in all formats and expect to see him up a tier by next season. ⬆️

The Jump Off

Tier 1 is a small stable place and Tier 2 is filled with players who are going to need to stay healthy while increasing production to order to make a jump. Tier 3 and, to a lesser extent, Tier 4 are both ripe for movement, loaded with untapped potential. Look before you leap because you don’t want to overpay, but focus your buying efforts here in hopes of maximizing your investment.

Under the Radar | 2020 Rookie Running Backs

Paul Lundgaard
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Under the Radar | 2020 Rookie Running Backs

Welcome to the 2020 season and the 2019 season isn’t even over yet. But that’s how we roll! I find myself starting earlier and earlier each season and it definitely gives me an advantage. This is a quick evaluation of three incoming rookie running backs that I feel aren’t being talked about enough. Because of the extremely deep nature of the 2020 RB & WR class, there will be some gems that can fall to you on Draft Day. Since it is important for every prospect, and to avoid repetition, I will just say this once: future rankings will be heavily dependent on landing spot, usage, and path to production/targets.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire – LSU

CEH is more so on the map now than he was before his beast-mode type performance versus Alabama, but I still don’t see him being mentioned with the top backs in this 2020 class. This could provide a great mid to late 1st round selection in upcoming dynasty rookie drafts. Edwards-Helaire took over for Derrius Guice during his sophomore year and even he admitted that he had a lot of improvements to work on. Fast forward to his Junior year and he improved in almost every facet of his game going 1,290 rushing yards on 197 carries with 16 touchdowns and adding 50 catches for 399 receiving yards and another score through the air. I always look for passing work at the college level as that is so important for fantasy production in the pros and CEH has soft hands, catches the ball away from his body, and has great ball tracking skills for a running back. He is exciting to watch and seems to be a back that can take over a game and put it on his shoulders with his vision, quick burst, and one of the quickest spin moves I have seen in quite some time. The move happens so fast it is almost quicker than the human eye can process. Many have viewed him as a 3rd down change of pace back with comparisons to Duke Johnson but per CBSsports.com, there are at least two NFL scouts that view him as a three-down back. I think he can be too and he is one of the first players in this draft to really give me that “feeling”. Other backs in recent years to give me that particular feeling: Devin Singletary, Josh Jacobs, Kareem Hunt, and Alvin Kamara.

Player Comp: Jonathan Stewart with some MJD sprinkled on top

Eno Benjamin – Arizona State

Benjamin is a very interesting prospect that projects to be a late 2nd/early 3rd round selection, a 12-15 touch committee guy, and a player that can be trusted near the end zone. RBBCs are a way of life now, but give me the guy most prone to get the TD looks. Eno had two very productive seasons in his sophomore and junior years at Arizona State amassing 2,725 rushing yards and 26 touchdowns on 553 carries and adding 610 receiving yards and 4 scores on 77 catches. There is that passing work again. Unlike Edwards-Helaire who has the ability and skill set to run routes, Benjamins’ catches come almost exclusively from check down passes but he is where he is supposed to be on these plays and catches the ball away from his body and turns upfield. Watching his tape is a tad hard to explain: it’s like watching a choreographed circus where things seem to be all over the place but it is all part of the plan. This “reckless abandon” can be seen in his ability to make a defender choose a direction and quickly change directions. He has a unique and quick footwork in small spaces and excellent contact balance. He is also finishing every run falling forward to get those extra yards. He rarely gets caught in the backfield dancing around for negative yards, if he doesn’t have anything he will fall forward to get what he can. Eno will be a player you will likely be able to stash on your bench or taxi squad and see how he develops.

Player Comp: Poor Man’s Charlie Garner

Zack Moss – Utah

Don’t sleep on Zach Moss’ prospects to produce at the next level. Moss amassed 1,359 rushing yards on 219 carries with 15 TDs and added 374 receiving yards on 26 catches with a TD in 2019 becoming arguably the best RB to ever come out of Utah. Moss is fun to watch as his vision, burst, work in tight spaces, and ability to pick the best path really seem to have what it takes to make it in the pros. Don’t expect a lightning fast 40 this spring in Indy at the combine, but if you followed me on twitter and my website pauliessleepers.com last year, you know by my early love for Devin Singletary that I don’t believe a 4.4 40 to be the be-all and end all for RB evaluation. I’m impressed by his burst, contact balance, and most of all, his power. This kid has a solid low center of gravity and uses his power to knock defenders off their feet, push through tight holes, and finish runs. I’ll be interested to see where this kid goes in the NFL draft. Pedigree: cousin of former NFL Pro WR Santana Moss. Projected pick in rookie drafts: late 3rd round.

Player Comp: Mark Ingram

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