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Dynasty Startup Mock Draft | January 2020 (Part 2)

Dynasty Startup Mock Draft – January 2020 (Part 1)

Format: Dynasty, 12 teams
Rosters
: (1) QB, (2) RB,  (3) WR, (1) TE, (3) R/W/T, (1) Q/R/W/T
Scoring: PPR, TE Prem (1.5)

Participants/Draft Position:

  1. Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports
  2. Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables
  3. JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts
  4. Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables
  5. Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network
  6. Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank
  7. Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network
  8. Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football
  9. Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports
  10. Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables
  11. Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables
  12. D Brown – @DBrownFF88The Undroppables

ROUND 5

5.01 – Tyler Lockett (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Tyler Lockett was a WR1 lock for the entire #2on1Crew coming into 2019, as all of us were super high on Tyler. While Lockett wasn’t a disappointment as he improved on his 2018 numbers, he just barely missed WR1 territory at WR13 in PPR formats due to inconsistent games (5 out of 15 games under 10 points), the emergence of D.K. Metcalf, and a fluke injury (missed week 13). Even with DK performing like the freak athlete his workout pictures showed, Lockett still had plenty of big games to win weeks and prove he’s still a major factor in this offense. 

At 27 years old, he’s also not a young buck anymore, but like Allen Robinson, I feel they both have at least 2-3 solid years of high-level production left in their tanks. Which for me, is all I’m really looking for in dynasty as I’m in a constant “win-now” mode only looking a few years down the road. I also feel there’s always time in the distant future to blow up a team and rebuild. I’m projecting another 1,000+ yard season for Lockett, barring injury, given his 90% weekly average snap share and continued usage as the team’s WR1. 

5.02 – Calvin Ridley (WR, Atlanta Falcons)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Calvin Ridley ended his sophomore season with the same workmanlike stat line he managed as a rookie… but in three fewer games! I don’t think it’s any coincidence that 27% of Julio Jones’ production came in the final three weeks of 2019. When Ridley was sidelined with an abdominal injury. The offseason should allow him to heal nicely and reclaim his spot in one of the games most prolific passing offenses. We may be witnessing a changing of the guard here and even if Julio manages to stave off Father Time for a couple more seasons, a bad defense and shaky running game ensure there are plenty of balls to go around in Atlanta. 

5.03 – Mark Andrews (TE, Baltimore Ravens)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Lamar Jackson is straight fire and Greg Roman knows how to deploy the tight end. Mark Andrews was a touchdown stud this season and a fantasy anomaly with a crazy high amount of points per snap. While regression is possible in 2020, I am concerned here with only one number: 23 – The age of both our Pro Bowl heroes, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. Like quarterback, tight end is a position where I’m happy to settle with a top-end option that I can plug and forget. Andrews owners will be able to do just that with the youngest QB-TE pairing in the league.

5.04 – Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, San Francisco 49ers)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

In Superflex startup drafts, I rarely leave the 5th (or at the latest 6th) round without having two QBs as a foundation. Depending on what position you are drafting from, a single QB run can cripple an unprepared fantasy owner’s team for years. In fact, I may or may not have started such a run myself with my selection of Jimmy G here. As I started with Mahomes at the top of the draft, I looked for a safe QB2 with a decent floor and stable situation.

The 49ers may be a run-dominant team but Kittle and Deebo are playmakers with the ball in their hands, capable of taking any reception to the house. Additionally, Garoppolo threw for nearly 4,000 yards (3,978) with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on a team that plays good defense and runs the ball with 3 running backs. Although those are not eye dropping numbers, they’re solid and were good for a QB14 finish. That also seems like a nice floor for my QB2. I debated going with a younger (and more promising) QB in Jones or Darnold as I actually have them slightly higher in my dynasty rankings, but I wanted to lean a little more “win-now” with a player in a more stable situation.

5.05 – Daniel Jones (QB, Carolina Panthers)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

At this stage of the draft, having my first position player at each starting position, I decided to go back to quarterback since it’s a Superflex league and QBs will most likely be taken more often between this pick and my next, and there aren’t that many left that I’d like to start on a weekly basis. There are a few veteran options available but I really want to build this team for the long haul, and seriously consider Daniel Jones to be one of those pieces that are in my lineup for years, so he’s my pick at 5.05.

I know what you’re thinking, this is a little early and probably a reach, but I honestly think he’s got the skills and surrounding cast to grow in value in 2020 and beyond. Add to that the stack with my 3rd round pick in Evan Engram and it was a no brainer for me. There were others I considered, but I wanted to focus on QBs earlier than other positions given how hard good ones are to find. Welcome to the team, Mr. Jones!

5.06 – Sam Darnold (QB, New York Jets)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

In a Superflex Dynasty startup, you can certainly still choose to wait on Quarterback, but don’t try and get too cute. When the value shows itself, jump in it. Darnold is my QB8 in dynasty and I land him here as QB14. I like that a lot. Picking in the middle of the pack is an advantage because the runs on various positions don’t get too far out of reach. I just didn’t want to push my luck too much. I also considered drafting Todd Gurley here. I don’t think he will make it back to me, but I just wasn’t too sure about his future role. There are a slew of nice WRs that I have in a similar tier, so I’m sure one of them will be there for me on the comeback. 

5.07 – Jared Goff (QB, Los Angeles Rams)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

Knowing how to read a draft lobby and see when a run will start is a crucial skill and can make your pick for you before it even gets to you turn. That’s what happened here as I knew the QB run was about to hit. Three QBs went before me that were all in the range of guys I wanted. Behind me, 3 of the five teams only had one or none quarterbacks on their roster. My pick became easy at this point. Take who was left of that tier and move on. That ended up being Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams.

At QB15 off the board, I’m perfectly happy with this pick. I don’t need a stud quarterback for my Superflex spot. I need a reliable QB who has talent around him with upside. That is precisely what Goff gives me. Goff finished the year as QB13 on the season even though he tied for 1st in attempts (626) and was 3rd in passing yards (4,638). What kept him from being another top-10 finish was the reduction in touchdowns from 2018, throwing 22 last year. Some of the most talented players in the NFL surround Goff, and he is on offense that ran the 8th most passing plays in 2019 (62%). He is locked up on the Rams through 2024, and I expect to see solid QB2 production the entire way.

5.08 – Jameis Winston (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

Generally, if you’d ask me whether I wanted a 26-year-old QB who just threw more than 30 touchdowns and had the 8th best passing yardage season of all time, I’d say sign me up. When you tell me that quarterback is Jameis Winston…hesitations arise. Along with those 30+ touchdowns, Jameis is the inaugural member of the 30 and 30 club. He’s the first QB of all time to throw for at least 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. A dubious distinction.

With that said, I think Jameis, the QB5 in fantasy this season, will be going back to the Buccaneers in 2020. Despite the interceptions, Winston fits well in Bruce Arians’ scheme. He can and will (clearly) throw the ball all over the yard, and we saw that lead to fantasy success. From a dynasty lens, at best, Winston sticks with the Bucs, continuing to produce in a high octane passing offense. At worst, Jameis will still be fantasy relevant as a shorter-term, potential journeyman in the mold of Ryan Fitzpatrick. YOLO quarterback play is in his blood, and I’m here for it.

5.09 – Kirk Cousins (QB, Minnesota Vikings)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I was the first person to take the dive into three quarterbacks, hell some teams don’t even have one yet! This was a pick that I didn’t NEED to make, but it was something I’ve been wrestling with dynasty Superflex startups after getting in a few over the summer. Having a strong third quarterback option was something that showed to be very important to the best teams. Whether it be to protect yourself with injuries, or if another team needs a viable starter, having three very startable quarterbacks allows me to feel safe in my team. Now, I am not a proponent of starting your draft with 4,5,6… straight QB picks, I don’t think that is a successful strategy, three in the first five rounds even is a bit much for me. But, being able to completely solidify my QB room before any other team makes me feel good with the most important position in SuperFlex leagues. Also, this is fantasy, I don’t care about prime times wins and losses, I’ve had people argue with me over Cousins because he can’t win big games, but until fantasy starts giving points to primetime wins, I couldn’t care less about his W/L record. As long as he puts up points and is a viable fantasy QB, I will continue to draft when I he makes it around to me. 

Kirk Cousins was also someone for me who was at a tier-break over the next options. He is still relatively young at 31 years old and no real health concerns, is a set-in starter and just had his worst career fantasy finish as a starter at QB18 overall, prior to that he has always been a QB1. If the Vikings started the season actually passing the ball, I’d be willing to bet he could have made up the 21 total points separating him and the QB12 overall. I suspect the offensive play calling to be more balanced/ look more like weeks five and on, rather than the early season of 2019. He finished last season with 425 completions, this season he only had 444 attempts! This was a down year for him fantasy-wise, and I expect a return to his previous QB1 ways starting next year. 

5.10 – Matt Stafford (QB, Detroit Lions)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

I went after the value at RB and WR early in the draft but here I realized that I had to get a QB and Matthew Stafford was the clear-cut guy. Although he only played in 8 games this year, he looked good in those appearances. Detroit is trying to find an identity and as much as they want to be a ground and pound team it’s not how they win games. With Kj, Golladay, Jones, Hockenson all coming back Stafford is going to have to put the ball in the air for them to keep pace in the games. I’m looking for them to add a few playmakers this offseason as well putting Stafford value on the rise.

5.11 – Todd Gurley – (RB, Los Angeles Rams)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

Here is where I usually start looking for QBs in a Superflex format.  This past season, I drafted guys like Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen in this area.  Well, there was a 7 QB run prior to my pick and all of the QBs I would consider in that “tier” are now gone.

Once again, no worries.  I won championships this year with the Jackson/Allen combo as well as with a Cousins/Fitzpatrick combo.  Anyway, I couldn’t pass on Todd Gurley with this pick as my RB2.  At only 25 years old, Gurley should still have several more productive seasons.  I believe his 2019 decline was more due to awful offensive line play and a shift in schemes midseason more than it had to do with the arthritis issue.  He still ended the season with 12 touchdowns and will continue to be the go-to guy in goal to clutch situations. 

5.12 – Michael Gallup (WR, Dallas Cowboys)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

In 2019, Gallup had the breakout many were hoping for by eclipsing 1,000 yards with an impressive 16.8 yards per catch (10th). He more than doubled his 2018 production as we continued to see Amari Cooper perform with weekly inconsistency. The Cowboys will have to decide if they want to sign Cooper long term. In my opinion, the Cowboys should tag him in a “prove it” year. If the Cowboys decide to move on, Gallup becomes the WR1 in Dallas. 

The creativity that Kellen Moore brought to Dallas as OC is evident when looking at the numbers. The Cowboys set a franchise record for most yards (6,904) and most passing yards (4,751) in a season. We have seen Dak’s pass attempts go up every year since entering the league and should be good for 600+ attempts in 2020. Gallup is 23 years old and a top 20 Dynasty WR with room to grow. 

ROUND 6

6.01 – Devin Singletary (RB, Buffalo Bills)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

As the 2019 season unfolded one thing became clear, Singletary is the new workhorse back in Buffalo. From week 8 on, he averaged 70+% of snaps, and received a minimum of 15 carries in 6 of 8 of those games. With only Frank “Father Time” Gore taking touches away, Singletary will take over this backfield completely in no time. 

We have seen the benefits of having dual threat QB Josh Allen, creating lanes for the young playmaker out of Florida Atlantic. Singletary averaging 5.1 yards per carry, ranks 3rd in “Big Run Rate” (7.3%), and 3rd in “Juke Rate” (33.3%) showing just how dangerous he can be in the open field. 

The Bills found success in 2019 and have one of the stoutest defenses in the NFL, offering upside to the rushing game. Singletary is a Top 15 back in dynasty formats and a solid RB2.

6.02 – Zach Ertz (TE, Philadelphia Eagles)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

If you follow me on Twitter, you know I was very high on Michael Gallup and Devin Singletary last summer.  Both were the next two players on my list but this is what happens when you draft with sharks and DBrown scooped them both up.  But look who is still available somehow. Zach Ertz, in a TE premium format! The last TE drafted was Evan Engram at the 3.05 and I’m now getting Ertz with my 6.02.  This is my best value pick so far. Ertz isn’t on contract after next year and that is probably why he slipped but he shouldn’t have slipped that far.

People say Dallas Goedert caps Ertz’ value but I don’t see it that way as Ertz still sees a whopping 90% of snaps.  I look at this like a WR1/WR2 situation similar to Julio and Ridley in Atlanta. Does Ridley take away from Julio? Hell no, he doesn’t.

6.03 – Austin Ekeler (RB, Los Angeles Chargers)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

So looking to add a bit more to the RB core, I was stoked to see Ekeler sitting there. The biggest question mark here is what do the Chargers to replace Gordon who may be gone in free agency. Ekeler finished as a top 5 back in PPR and showed he could handle the load. He saw 132 attempts for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns. The money though is the 92 receptions on 108 targets for 993 receiving and 8 scores through the air. I believe they move forward with the 1-2 punch of Ekeler and Jackson and Ekeler’s usage in the pass game gives him a safe floor and a high ceiling going into 2020. 

6.04 – D.K. Metcalf (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I had a few running backs in mind here, but I thought at least one or two would drop to me in the seventh. It turns out they didn’t but I can make it work- no worries. Wide Receiver wise the few that went after my pick were really all in play for me. I really like F1, Deebo is going to be a steal for people, Kirk in the Arizona offense should really pop, and Boyd a few picks away is also someone I really like. To be honest I could have really gone with any of them and been happy. But, I decided to go with Metcalf for a couple reasons, not least of which was the Wilson stack. I believe Wilson will continue to be an elite Quarterback for years to come and Metcalf at only 22 years old (a year younger or more from the next few wide receivers off the board) should be a major benefactor throughout Wilson’s career. Now he was obviously aided playing time wise and option wise with the injury to Dissly (especially in the endzone), but he still saw 100 targets and put up 900 yards and 7 touchdowns, all with a pretty dismal catch rate of 58%. A little less volume, but more efficient with his looks seem very realistic to me. And what is nice, we already have a great example of that with his counterpart Tyler Lockett. Wilson may not throw as much as others, but he does throw a very fantasy friendly pass, and stacking recipients of those passes is something I would like to do. O and for what it’s worth, Lockett is set to be a free agent after the 2021 season at 29/30 years old for 2022. Metcalf could find himself as the WR1 for Wilson in the not so distant future.

6.05 – Terry McLaurin (WR, Washington Redskins)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

What a season for Terry F1 McLaurin! Missing 2 games due to injury, McLaurin finished 2019 as the WR27 with 58 receptions on 93 targets for 919 yards and 7 touchdowns. That performance cannot be discounted when you consider he endured season long Quarterback uncertainty on an offense not only stuck, but camped out in the mud.

While Washington historically has an appetite for dysfunction, they believe they have a future franchise quarterback in Dwayne Haskins (McLaurin’s college teammate in case you didn’t know) and their recent hiring of Ron Rivera as Head Coach is an encouraging sign for them gaining stability. Washington will surely look to add passing game weapons which should only help McLaurin as he seemed like the only show in town at times this season and could benefit from another threat drawing defensive attention. Second year breakouts for Wide Receivers are becoming a common trend so I wanted to make sure I was a year early on McLaurin’s because his price is only going to go up!

Roster build wise, Terry McLaurin as my WR2 feels risky given the current state of the offense. I was happy to bet on the talent and thought I’d be able to adequately stock up in the coming rounds. Having McLaurin’s youth and upside will be great for my team’s long term outlook.

6.06 – Deebo Samuel (WR, San Francisco 49ers)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

I’ll be honest; I love this pick so much. I needed a WR2 to pair with A.J. Brown and to grab Deebo Samuel in the 6th to be that guy is as good as I could have hoped. Once he got rolling in San Francisco, Samuel was a yardage monster. Samuel finished the season as the second-best wide receiver in yards after the catch/reception at 8.3 yards, only behind A.J. Brown (8.9). He finished the regular season with 57 catches for 802 yards, 159 rush yards, and six touchdowns, highlighted by an eight-game stretch with 697 scrimmage yards to end the year. Samuel fits everything I want in a WR when building a team. Young, advanced route tree, hyper-talented, and doesn’t require red zone targets to have a solid week. Take him in this range and enjoy the production for years to come.

6.07 – Cam Newton (QB, Carolina Panthers)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Risk/Reward and positional scarcity. These are the two main reasons for taking Cam Newton in this spot. Unless you think he is never playing again, Cam will be back and given a full opportunity to lead a team. If it’s Carolina, I’d like that. DJ, CMC and crew are a great supporting cast. But even if it’s somewhere else, he still has QB1 upside and with his rushing history, he has a pretty safe floor. The injuries are scary as hell, but they are baked into the price here. Cam at QB19 is never happening if we know he is fully healthy. 

The QBs are getting a little thin and I always want to leave a Superflex dynasty startup with at least 3 starting QBs. And with only 32 to go around, it gets thin quickly. 

6.08 – Christian Kirk (WR, Arizona Cardinals)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Back on the clock and looking for a WR. I full expect Larry Fitzgerald to retire this off-season, but even if he doesn’t, WR Christian Kirk should be a perfect WR2 for my team. He’s young and growing alongside a young gunslinging quarterback on a high-powered offense. Kirk had a quiet 2019 but I think he’s in for big things in dynasty and should be considered a high upside WR2 in most formats.

On top of that, pairing him with Thomas puts my WR corps in a good place. I could have picked Thielen or Hilton but both of them are just as risky and are a few years older. When building a new dynasty team everyone tends to prefer youth, so the odds of Kirk making it back to me feel low. Gotta get my guy here.

6.09 – Marlon Mack (RB, Indianapolis Colts)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

As I inadvertently went “Zero RB” for the first 5 rounds, focusing on the core pieces of QB and TE along with some young WR talent, I decided to seek the best RB value on the board and came across the intersection of the next 2 picks (Hunt and Carson). Along with Mack, these 3 backs are in the same tier, each possessing immense upside coupled with potentially troublesome question marks. Mack finds himself in a struggling offense and lacks pass-catching upside. At the same time, Mack posted over 1,000 yards rushing while averaging over 17 touches a game and never coughed up the ball. Hunt is a restricted free agent under the Browns control and without a lead role, he is stuck as a low-end RB2 at best. I am just a little concerned that the Browns do something terrible and overpay another talented (but unnecessary) RB. And I love Carson but the guy just can’t hold onto the ball and that is a pet-peeve of mine which caused me to go with Mack (although in hindsight, Carson was probably the right call here).

6.10 – Kareem Hunt (RB, Cleveland Browns)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

After locking up studs at each position, I feel comfortable gambling here. Instead of gambling on injury (Chris Carson) I’m rolling the dice on talent in Kareem Hunt. Although it is risky, I believe a team will make a trade for the Pro Bowler. Soon as he touched the field in Cleveland, he found fantasy relevance as a “second stringer.” Kareem had a phenomenally high snap share over the last 8 games at 59.9% (compared to Nick Chubb’s 63.9%). He even outsnapped Chubb 3 times. As incompetent as Kitchens was, he knew he had to give Kareem reps, the talent is undeniable. At just 24 years old, my risk is minimized by Kareem’s youth. Whether 2020 or 2021, Kareem will be on a new team and find himself back in elite territory. 

6.11 – Chris Carson (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Despite missing the seasons final week with a fractured hip, Seattle’s Bell Cow closed 2019 with 1,498 yards and 9 total touchdowns. I’m beyond thrilled to have waited this long to address the running back position and wind up with a guy as solid as Carson. Some of my competitors wondered loudly what my strategy would look like after waiting this long and I actually considered waiting one more round, but with Tommy having already spent a 3rd round pick on Travis Kelce I was confident my second option (TE Austin Hooper)  would come back to me. 

What many of my competitors seem to have forgotten is that in this hypothetical dynasty league we still have a rookie draft to navigate. And it is loaded with running back talent! And If the last few years have taught us anything it’s that rookie running backs almost always have an immediate impact. And they are much easier to find/replace than stud quarterbacks. So with the combination of a steady vet or two and some rookies, I believe I’ll have more than enough punch from my RBs!

6.12 – Le’Veon Bell (RB, New York Jets)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

My strategy for drafting is always to go with consistency for a minimum of 5 rounds, but ideally as long as you can with consistent players still on the board. After that, go upside. And you might be wondering where Le’veon Bell fits into that strategy, but a talented RB like Bell is bound to have a resurgence in his 2nd year back in the game. Even though 2019 wasn’t stellar for Bell, he was still the RB16 in PPR formats and his numbers should improve in 2020 either because Gase finally figures out how to use a RB, or because Bell feels even more comfortable running behind this O Line. 

I’ve now drafted my 3rd player 26+ years old in the first 6 rounds of this dynasty startup draft, which is risky and a strategy some people avoid completely. But again, if I can get 3 years of high production out of those players I’m happy. Additionally, since I like to build teams with 3 solid RBs, Bell still has the running and pass-catching ability to put up RB1/2 numbers. With plenty of skill position players on the roster, an offseason investment in the offensive line would bode extremely well for Bell and Darnold. Plus, worst case scenario, Gase doesn’t want Bell back next year and he lands on a team that can really use his talent, a low risk move since he’s the RB3 on my team. 

ROUND 7

7.01 – Ryan Tannehill (QB, Tennessee Titans)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Ryan Tannehill pulled a complete 180 on the 2019 season, coming in with very little value as a backup, and leaving with a ton of upside and the new heir apparent in Tennessee. It hasn’t been officially announced, but Ryan has effectively taken the job from Mariota, and in doing so, led the Titans to a playoff appearance. Getting the start in week 7, Tannehill put up respectable numbers throwing for 2,598 yards, 22 TDs, and only 5 INTs. He led the NFL with a 117.5 passer rating (℅ @NFL_Stats), and he completed 70% of pass attempts that were 9+ yards (℅ @WingfieldNFL). He raised the game of everyone around him, turning AJ Brown into a top fantasy WR target for 2020. And he opened up the game for the offense, for example, since he took over in week 7 the Titans ranked 1st in yards per play, 1st yards per rushing attempt, and 1st in yards per passing attempt (℅ @ScottBarrettDFB). And lastly, per @PFF he was the highest graded QB of 2019 with a 92.5% grade, ahead of Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and everyone else. He certainly will enter 2020 with a ton of upside .

7.02 – Austin Hooper (TE, Atlanta Falcons)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Many people predicted an Austin Hooper breakout coming in 2019 and those of you who snagged him late in drafts were not disappointed. Not even a late season MCL sprain could keep him from posting the best season of his career to date. Hooper finished with 75 receptions for 787 yards and six touchdowns in just 13 games. And was the overall TE1 through the seasons first nine weeks. The 25 year old California native is set to become a free agent in March, and perhaps that’s why he fell down the board a bit as the Falcons have yet to engage him in talks. But no matter where he spends his future he will almost certainly be productive and snagging him this late in a TE premium league feels like stealing.

7.03 – Drew Brees (QB, New Orleans Saints)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Drew Brees is my last stand at Superflex’s make or break position: QB2. We had a surprising early run in the 5th round, but 2 guys I consider to be in the same tier were available late, Tannehill and Brees. Fantasy finishes are fool’s gold as injuries modify value drastically. Don’t be distracted by the ulnar collateral surgery that held Brees out for 5 weeks. He scored 20.4 PPG, 7th best in the league. Soon to be 41 years old, it makes sense that Brees has fallen as far as he has, but I’m happy to find a young QB in 2021, for now I’ll take the value of another quarterback playing behind a stellar offensive line with a fantastic playcaller. 

7.04 – Derrius Guice (RB, Washington Redskins)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

One of the most exciting yet enigmatic prospects in recent memory, Guice could pan out into perennial stud for the next 5-6 years or a “what could have been” pipe dream. As stated earlier, my last two picks were running backs as the RB talent pool from here gets fairly shallow and I’d rather take a chance on Derrius Guice than Lindsay, Montgomery, Ingram and even Kenyan Drake (who I debated here). But if I am debating between Guice (who has top 10 potential IF he can somehow stay healthy) or Drake (who broke out in a major way with Arizona but finds himself in an extremely unpredictable situation with David Johnson and a compelling third string back in Chase Edmonds).

Washington just hired Ron Rivera and based on the new Redskins head coach’s history with running backs, Guice’s 2020 outlook improves even though he’s on IR. Rivera and his defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will play a hard-nosed, run-heavy scheme predicated on defense so a healthy Guice would see a workhorse type role. Guice may be coming off two consecutive seasons lost to knee injuries, but he will be turning only 23 in late June and still is one of the most talented backs in the league. Even with a limited sample (5 games in 2019), Guice ran for 245 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 2 TDs while flashing the explosiveness we’d hope to see. 

7.05 – David Montgomery (RB, Chicago Bears)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Time to look for my RB2 and a top three 2019 rookie is still available in RB David Montgomery. He had an up and down year with the Bears, and is definitely considered risky, but most RB2s are these days. Putting him with Gordon makes my team riskier than usual but both could also be huge plays come the start of the 2020 season.

Overall, my roster is very balanced: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and a TE. In most startups I try to do something like this to avoid having a gap at any particular position, and in a draft like this with all of the sniping it’s important to stay focused and not go on tilt to reach for anyone, especially this early. Now that I’ve got a good base I can start looking for bench and high-floor picks to round out my risky starting squad.

7.06 – Tyler Boyd (WR, Cincinnatti Bengals)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Tyler Boyd is now my WR4 on this squad. 

Tyler Boyd – 25 yrs old – 147 targets

D.J. Chark – 23 yrs old – 118 targets 

Amari Cooper – 25 yrs – 119 targets 

Chris Godwin – 23 yrs – 120 targets 

We can start up to 5 or 6 wide receivers in this league format, so having young depth like this in a PPR format will pay dividends.  Add in Fournette who is only 24 years old and saw 100 targets himself this past season and I feel very good about competing early on and dominating in the future. 

I’ll need to continue to make good decisions to round out this squad.  But so far, I like it.

7.07 – Hunter Henry (TE, Los Angeles Chargers)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

I got sniped hard on this pick on a wide receiver I was banking on grabbing (Foreshadowing to what happened again later). Since we can start up to 5 WRs in this due to the flex spots, Tyler Boyd would have been a perfect fit with Samuel and Brown. Especially since all signs point to Joe Burrow going #1 overall to Cincinnati in the draft. Since this is a TE premium format, that became my next logical pivot since I needed to get one still, and so did 5 of the following 6 drafters. I wanted Austin Hooper and settled on Hunter Henry but had the plan moving forward to get another TE reasonably soon.

I don’t love this pick due to his injury history, but when he is on the field, Henry is a stud. He finished as TE9 in 2019 even while missing four games, averaging 12.4 points in PPR scoring. At 6’5″ and 25 years old, whoever is going to play QB for the Chargers will look for him in the red zone. I do expect them to either resign or franchise tag Henry this offseason to keep him around. He is my #7 tight in dynasty rankings, so this falls right in line. There are guys on the board who I like better long term, such as Hockenson or Fant. The issue is how long it can take for a talented tight end to develop. I’d love to grab one of them later on and let them hone their craft while I use Henry as my everyday starter.

7.08 – Noah Fant (TE, Denver Broncos)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

Fant was drafted with the 20th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft due to his off the charts athletic measurables and stellar college production, scoring 18 touchdowns in his final 2 seasons at Iowa.

Opinions were mixed on Fant’s production outlook as a rookie. He was joining an offense in flux with the Broncos, attached to a Quarterback who historically used Tight Ends heavily in Joe Flacco, and we all know how Tight Ends generally need 2 to 3 year to acclimate to the NFL and produce for Fantasy. Looking at the season as a whole for Fant, we see he cleared the elusive 500 yard benchmark for rookie Tight Ends. In fact, his 562 receiving yards are the 6th most of any rookie TE over the past 20 years. That’s more yardage than the likes of Gronkowski, Kittle, and Mark Andrews had in their rookie seasons. I chose Fant here because, being a Tight End premium league, most of the sure-thing tight ends were off the board already and Fant provided the most upside. I look for him to continue to improve on his solid rookie year, further cementing himself as an offensive focal point alongside Courtland Sutton.

7.09 – Dallas Goedert (TE, Philadelphia Eagles)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Ok, so…. This was a reach, can’t lie. A peak behind the curtains on this one; me sleeping peacefully on my couch, phone notification wakes me up- it’s 11:57 PM, see it is my turn to pick, and rather than just going back to bed and drafting in a few hours, I sleepily decide to make my pick, and lo and behold there has been a mini tight end run. Well it is a TE Premium league, I don’t want to fall behind, and Goedert presents a crazy high ceiling as we have seen what Ertz has done in that offense (and actually Goedert too) and Ertz could be a roster casualty and Dallas could be the TE1 in Philly in a matter of a few short months. So I make the pick and pass back out. For being half asleep, I can see my logic here, being fully awake the next morning, passing up Drake was something I was less than pleased with myself. 

But, I made the pick so I have to make it work regardless of how happy I am with it. The Philly offense was a bit of a trainwreck this season due to injuries, which I’m sure played a role in Dallas’s season, but he still finished the 2019 season as a TE1 this season with Ertz still there. He showed to be athletic and a playmaker for Wentz and is making considerably less money than Ertz and is four years his junior. So, if Ertz does get cut to save money, I just locked up an elite tight end spot for the next several years for great value. If I have to wait a few years this pick was a big miss. Such is life in the fantasy game. Luckily, I already have my eye on a few tight end options that I really like for 2020 and beyond that I know I can draft in a few rounds and will help me bolster this pick and protect me if it flops. 

7.10 – Darren Waller (TE, Oakland Raiders)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

In a TE Premium league, I needed to make a play here and while I like Waller at this spot he is a question mark for me in 20. He had 90 receptions on 117 targets for 1,145 yds and three TDs. He was a top 5 TE this year. Why the hesitation? Is Carr the QB next year? Who do they add in the draft or free agency as a wide receiver? Will Moreau eat into his targets? Will he stay on the right path? There’s risk with him but he should come in as a top 8 TE next year. However, I do worry about his target volume moving forward.

7.11 – Kenyan Drake (RB, Arizona Cardinals)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

No QB yet and the guys are starting to talk in the chat room.  “Paulie going zero QB in Superflex.” Insert *It’s a bold strategy, Cotton* gif here.  There is a handful of guys I would be happy with at this point, and based on the other rosters, 3 of them will still be there later.  I went with Kenyan Drake because I have always believed in his talent and he is one of several players to flourish once he got out from under Adam Gase’s wing.  Drake was the RB3 overall for the last three weeks with a whopping 7 TDs and 87% of the backfields’ touches.  He fits great into Kingsburys’ offense and the coach knows it. It has now come out that the coach actively sought out Drake in trade.  It has also come out that David Johnson did not fit in the “RPO” scheme and he has even reportedly offered to return kicks next year.  Yes, this is what it has come to, DJ asking to work special teams to stay relevant. Could the Cardinals draft a high profile RB or get one in free agency next year?  Sure, it’s possible. But why would they when they have so many holes and they have already found the perfect fit? Drake has hella upside as my RB3 and I firmly believe he will be the starter in 2020.

7.12 – Robert Woods (WR, Los Angeles Rams)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Approaching the turn of Rounds 7 and 8, I glance over my roster to check positional needs. Thus far, I have 2 QBs, 2RBs, and 2 WRs. Wanting to continue filling my starters, leaves me with TE, RB, WR. 

I’m a firm believer in locking up a Top 5 TE or punting the position until later in the draft. I was hoping perhaps that Hooper may fall to me here, but he went along with 4 others forcing me to wait on TE yet again. This now has me looking for a RB/WR combo. I selected Woods as the BPA on the board giving me a solid WR3. 

The last 2 years under McVay, Woods has been a consistent weapon in a powerful offense reaching 130+ targets in each season. These numbers prove to be enough for the WR11 and WR14 finish in PPR formats. In both seasons Woods was able to eclipse 1,000 yards. While Brandon Cooks may be getting faded in this offense with the emergence of the Rams TE (Everette, Higbee), Woods has remained a “go to” target for Goff having a minimum of 9 Targets their last 6 games.

Woods has a few more years of solid production and makes for a great WR3 on any team. My WR core now consists of Golladay, Gallup, and Woods. Great mix of consistency, youth, and upside. 

ROUND 8

8.01 – Phillip Lindsay (RB, Carolina Panthers)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

The Broncos had a new OC, a banged-up offensive line, and a QB carousel in 2019. Still, Lindsay found a way to make history by becoming the first ever undrafted NFL RB to rush for 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. Lindsay is no doubt, a special talent, and has a story that you can’t help but root for. 

Coming off a wrist surgery Lindsay looks to be in full health heading into 2020. Lindsay will be entering a contract year in 2020, so I expect the Broncos organization to restructure the current contract in order to lock up their stud RB for the future.

So long as Royce Freeman is splitting the backfield, Lindsay’s ceiling will be capped, but even with limited touches, Lindsay has produced steadily. Lindsay is just beginning to scratch the surface of his potential. Broncos have a stout defense and no sure thing at QB, which should keep the offensive game plan close to the line of scrimmage. This is bound to leave a plethora of touches to be had moving forward.

The combination of youth and talent make Lindsay a great RB3 for my team that already boasts Nick Chubb and Devin Singletary. I’ll plan to continue adding RB depth in the upcoming rookie draft. Having Lindsay as my oldest RB at age 25 has my team stacked nicely with youth for the future. 

8.02 – Gardner Minshew (QB, Jacksonville Jaguars)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

OK, it’s finally time to pull the trigger on a QB.  I have a plan and it includes 1 or possibly 2 other QBs starting ahead of Minshew but I’m ok rolling him out there.  His 3,271 yard campaign with a 21/6 TD/INT ratio and 67 rushes for 344 yards in only 14 games has really flown under the radar in my opinion and based on how the town has embraced this kid and how marketable he is, he will be the starter in 2020.  Remember he was a 6th round pick and wasn’t supposed to see the field this year. He has heart and moxy and that, along with his impressive first-year stats, makes me comfy taking him as my first QB off the board. Just wait, kids. I’ll be OK. Trust me.

8.03 – Derek Carr (QB, Oakland Raiders)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

QBs are getting slim so taking my shot here on Carr. Is he the future for the franchise? No idea.  He’s been a bag of mixed results, only throwing for over 4000 yds twice in his career so he’s not a sure-fire stud but if they choose to build around him, add playmakers, improve the o line I do think he could finish as a top 12 QB in 2020. As my QB2, he is risky but the wait on QB could pay off a bit.

8.04 – Adam Thielen (WR, Minnesota Vikings)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I think people kind of forget about Thielen to be honest. 2017- WR8 (239 points), 2018- WR 7 (307 points), and was the WR9 this season before getting injured and sputtering the rest of the season. So in the 8th round I can land someone that was a WR1 the past two seasons, and was on pace to continue that streak, ya I will take that. Not for nothing, in case something happens in my QB slot, I can now stack Cousins and Thielen too which is nice, though that wasn’t really a big factor with this pick, just an added bonus. He is 29 but that doesn’t scare me too much, still should have a few more years of strong production, and seems like someone that could be in store for contract restructuring after the 2020 season

8.05 – Mark Ingram (RB, Baltimore Ravens)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

For this pick, I went down to B-More, outside the Bank, and put some BIG TRUSS into this Baltimore offense! This rushing attack was stellar this year. We all know the history Lamar Jackson made across the board, but Mark Ingram has been a huge part of the Ravens’ success.

The RB11 in PPR formats, Ingram cleared 1000 yards rushing for the third time in his career and set a new career high with 15 touchdowns (10 rushing, 5 receiving). Looking at whether those touchdowns are sustainable, we see that Ingram totaled the 10th most red zone carries in the league with 40, and 14 of his 15 total touchdowns came from inside the 20. In fact, Ingram, Lamar Jackson, and Gus Edwards were all top 36 in the NFL in red zone carries, which tells me that when they’re near pay dirt, they want to run the ball. So, while Ingram’s 15 touchdowns are likely to regress, he will still be put in a position to succeed being given high leverage touches. From a dynasty lens, the potential loss of Greg Roman, and insertion of Justice Hill into meaningful carries, did give me some pause but this is an offense I want pieces of with Lamar Jackson at the helm. And in the 8th round I couldn’t pass Ingram up. He may only have 2-3 years of high-level production left, but with Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson on my team already, there is potential volatility atop my depth chart. I expect similar volume in 2020, and attached to that QB….I’m bout dat. WOO WOO!

8.06 – Sony Michel (RB, New England Patriots)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

Do you know how you say every draft that you won’t draft a New England Patriots running back and end up doing anyway? Yeah, that’s this pick right here. I don’t love it, and I don’t hate it at the ADP and need for my team. Going RB/RB with my first two picks, gave me some leeway to address other needs before coming back. I wanted this to be either Derrius Guice or Kenyan Drake, but given the group of drafters, didn’t happen. I needed a solid RB3, and Michel gives me that after back to back seasons where he finished above RB36. At only 24 years old, there is still plenty of time for him to develop. In 2019, Michel saw 15 or more touches in 11 games, showing the volume is there. With all the uncertainty surrounding the Patriots for the first time in decades, it seems, relying on a rushing game is an easy way to help with a transition. 

8.07 – Dwayne Haskins (QB, Washington Redskins)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Haskins joins Darnold and Cam in my quarterback stable. He is drafted as the QB24 and that is value in my book. Haskins remains a very low cost starting QB. He is only 22 years old and entering his second season he will be greeted with more stability. Ron Rivera will be leading the team and with Terry McLaurin and other young weapons taking another step forward, I think Haskins value will rise during 2020. 

Which hits on one more strategy I try to keep in mind with every pick.  “Will this player be worth more in 12 months from now?” I want that answer to be ‘Yes’ for as many picks as possible. In dynasty, these players are not only point scorers for you team, they are also assets that behave like currency. Make sure your team has more ‘arrow up’ guys than not. 

8.08 – Mike Williams (WR, Los Angeles Chargers)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

I considered a few options at this pick, but it was mainly between RB and WR since I have two of each. There are some bench QBs left and plenty of TE options, even for a TE premium league, so I didn’t see the urgency in either of those positions for this pick. Given that it’s a PPR league and wide receivers are generally more valuable in dynasty leagues anyway, I went with the WR position.

Once I knew what position it was between a few players at that position: TY Hilton, Mike Williams, or Devante Parker. I think all three have immense value as a WR3 but the youth factor puts Mike Williams at the top of the list for me. I’m not sure I can trust Parker for the long haul, especially if Fitz-magic leaves the Dolphins, and TY Hilton is a WR1 when healthy, but we aren’t certain how long that will be. GImme MikeWill and my WR3 slot is set.

8.09 – Marquise Brown (WR, Baltimore Ravens)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

As long as I have at least two QBs after the 6th round, I tend to look for high upside WRs and RBs who might be an injury away from winning leagues. A rash of quarterbacks and running backs left some WR value so I hit the button on Hollywood Brown. Tied to the MVP-favorite for years to come, Brown boasts an incredibly high ceiling with his blazing speed which allows him to take the top of the defense on any given play. Brown only had 44 receptions for 569 yards but he saw nearly 20% of the Ravens’ red zone targets (12) and also posted a respectable 14.6% HOG Rate (5.6 targets per game). Jackson and Brown have a strong connection as noticed from the target distribution and things should only improve from a WR44 finish in 2019 where Hollywood averaged 11 PPR points per game. I consider Brown a low-end WR3 with the potential to develop into a perennial top 25 WR over the next couple of years.

8.10 – Jarvis Landry (WR, Cleveland Browns)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

After taking James Conner in the 5th round, I quickly realized how crazy deep running back is this year. I expected Drake and Lindsay types to go in the 5th/6th, but after seeing them fall two whole rounds, we see that the strong rookie RB class has deflated the cost of some of the tailend RB2s. 

Jarvis Landry is a basic value grab, a young, consistent WR2 whose playstyle can offer another 5+ years of fantasy relevance. He’s a true WR2/3 lacking WR1 upside with Odell there, but again, circumstances change, 27 year old talent does not. I’m not concerned with rostering two Browns receivers either. Landry’s 138 targets rank 9th in the NFL and he actually received more opportunities than Beckham (135).  If needed, Landry will be an easy flip when Cleveland adds an offensive-minded head coach to right the ship. 

8.11 – N’Keal Harry (WR, New England Patriots)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

This kid has loads of talent and this will most likely be the lowest his value will ever be. He fortifies an already impressive receiving corp and If He develops the way many of us think, we could be talking about a second round pick two years from now. There are suddenly questions surrounding the QB position in New England and that might have contributed to his fall. But the beauty of this pick is that I don’t need immediate production from him and the Patriots brain trust usually gets it right.

8.12 – Curtis Samuel (WR, Carolina Panthers)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I’m going all upside here as the 3rd year wideout didn’t have the 3rd year breakout that many of us in the fantasy football community were expecting. Still, at 23 years old with a ton of speed and talent, he had over 100 targets in 2019 and averaged an impressive 11.6 yards per catch. Samuel’s 2020 outlook isn’t amazing currently with a new Head Coach, new QB, and D.J. Moore taking the reigns as the team’s WR1. However, the opportunity will definitely be there as Samuel averaged an 86% snap share in 2019, which he turned into 54 catches for 627 yards and 6 TDs. The only problem with Samuel’s game is it’s all based on volume as he’s not going to take the top off a defense as a deep threat and he failed to hit the century mark even once this past season. However, at this point in the draft, I can take a chance on a young player because I’ve chosen to draft consistency while sacrificing youth. But a new HC, play-caller and dynamic QB could be a serious game changer for Curtis. 

ROUND 9

9.01 – Drew Lock (QB, Denver Broncos)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Jeezy likes him so I gotta too right?! Besides this kid’s affinity for trap music, he will be taking the helm for the Broncos going into 2020, at least according to John Elway. The 2019 rookie did not start until week 13 against the Chargers but impressed, winning 4 of the last 5 games of the year. By shipping off Sanders the Broncos got a lot younger and with another playmaking WR and an investment in the offensive line, Lock should be a lock for a solid QB2 next year and a consistent Superflex starter for the next few years. 

9.02 – Devonta Freeman (RB, Atlanta Falcons)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

If this is starting to sound like an Atlanta season rewind to you, you’re not alone! I’m never happy placing so many eggs in one basket and three starters on one team is probably one too many. Even if the Atlanta offense remains one of the league’s best. But at this point in the draft Freeman was the best of the rest at running back and there is no guarantee Hooper will be back in Atlanta next summer (As mentioned, the 25 year old star is a free agent).

Freeman closed 2019 strong and though the explosiveness that once made him one of the games best runners has long been sapped by injury, he still managed to eclipse eighteen fantasy points six times in 2019. 

9.03 – Ronald Jones (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Ronald Jones is 22 years old and his development over the last season has been drastic. I did not expect to enjoy Jones’ 2019 tape as much as I have. After a dive in the film room, I can say I expect the former 2nd round pick to be highly competitive in camp if the Bucs decide to pick up a rookie (and they should). During his 2018 rookie season, Jones’ struggled catching up to the game speed and was slow in finding holes that were less obvious than the highway lanes he ran on in the Pac-12. Jones has shown plenty of explosiveness in year 2 and his skill at the second level has begun to resemble the stud we saw at USC. His involvement in the passing game has grown, and although he has work to do in pass protection, I think Bucs head coach Bruce Arians views him as a competitive back on first and second downs.

For me, the main concern with this pick is not Jones himself, but the competition the Buccaneers decide to bring in. Jameis Winston and a trio of key defensive linemen (Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre-Paul) are free agents heading into 2020. Adding a big name like Melvin Gordon or David Johnson depends on how the flexible the front office can get with $90 million in cap space. If they can’t go with a big name, I expect Jones to compete against a rookie for prime position in Arians’ high powered offense. While 2018 Ronald Jones would have gotten swept, 2020 Ronald Jones will have a leg up.

9.04 – T.J. Hockenson (TE, Detroit Lions)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

I already drafted Kittle back in the 2nd round but that didn’t stop me from grabbing the next in line of dominant Iowa tight ends in T.J. Hockenson. Big bodied, explosive with good pass blocking skills, Hockenson possesses the key qualities of a true all-around TE1. The Lions rookie broke out in Week 1 with  6 receptions, 131 yards and a touchdown but then disappeared thereafter and eventually suffered a season ending ankle injury. It’s generally understood that it takes young tight ends several years to develop and Hock is no exception. He’s flashed his big play ability at times but also demonstrated he needs to improve with blocking and not dropping passes (especially red zone targets). In the TE wasteland, things are muddled after the top 5 or so, but Hockenson is a solid top 10 talent at the position with potential to become elite over the next couple of years.

9.05 – T.Y. Hilton (WR, Indianapolis Colts )
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Well, if you read my previous write up, I was considering taking Hilton in the last round, so he’s an easy choice for me here. Yes, he’s getting older and has health issues, along with some potential QB uncertainty, but he’s still a viable option for fantasy in most weeks, even in dynasty. Hilton deserves a spot as my WR4 and will be a great bye week fill in or flex option most weeks since I can take on a little risk and age with how I’ve built this roster so far.

At this point, I will say here that while youth is key, a good dynasty roster has a mix of old and young players. You don’t want to have all old guys who will win now and leave you crushed for a few years while you rebuild, but you also don’t want only young players who are growing and forcing you to lose for years while they figure it out. No. You need a mix so you can retire/drop a few players every year as you draft new ones. It makes for a well-rounded team and gives you some options to trade away to contenders if your season takes a turn south early as well. Don’t be afraid of older guys, especially in the 9th round of a startup. They can still help and provide some balance to your squad.

9.06 – Devante Parker (WR, Miami Dolphins)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

This pick was a very exciting pick for the whole league.  But there’s a lesson here. Here it is: We drafted this team on Sleeper.  And the default rankings were set up as 2019 ADP. And for that reason, Parker was waaaay down the list.  So we all missed him. When I made the pick, all the other drafters were reacting to the pick because they couldn’t believe he was still there. 

The lesson here is to look at your site’s adp and rankings and make sure you have your own rankings. Look deep in the player list and either mark them on the watch list, or put them in your queue. This is a great way to gain an edge on your opponents when you’re doing a real draft for real money.  This one was just for bragging rights, so all I get to do is gloat. I’d prefer to be stacking duckets. 

My WR core now (can start 5):

Tyler Boyd – 25 yrs old – 147 targets

D.J. Chark – 23 yrs old – 118 targets 

Amari Cooper – 25 yrs – 119 targets 

Chris Godwin – 23 yrs – 120 targets

Devante Parker – 26 yrs – 128 targets 

9.07 – Mecole Hardman (WR, Kansas City Chiefs)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

Remember where I said I got sniped again on a wide receiver? This was where it happened. I thought I was going to be sneaky when I took Michel and let Parker slide to me, thinking that everyone had forgotten about him. Scott had other plans as he scooped him up right before I had a chance. After a few choice words in chat, I settled down and had to make a move. I was still going to go wide receiver as I only had 2 to this point. There weren’t a lot of other options that I loved, so I went with the high upside play in Kansas City Chiefs’ speedster Mecole Hardman. 

I guess I have a thing for guys who are primed or second-year breakouts as I now have 3 of them starting for me in the team. Averaging 20.69 yards per reception, he is one broken tackle from taking any pass to the house. 

9.08 – Brandin Cooks (WR, Los Angeles Rams)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

This was a tougher pick to make as Cooks’ 2019 has been unmistakably awful. Not only has he not been productive when on the field, Cooks had concussion issues which sparked much concern for his dynasty prospects. While I also have those concerns, this price point was too good to pass up. Cooks will have just turned 27 by the time next season starts and his history of production can’t be denied. Prior to this season, Cooks had 4 straight 1000 yard seasons for 3 different teams. 

There was one caveat in this pick which is yet to unfold. I think Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods will be moved this offseason. The Rams could certainly use the cap relief with just under $8.5 Million in projected cap space for 2020. They’ll have to pay Cooper Kupp soon and we saw them utilize their tight ends very effectively in the passing game this season.They won’t be able to cut Cooks as his dead cap hit would be more than $21 Million but yet another trade could be in the cards. His $16.8 Million cap hit would come off the books and the Rams would likely recoup some of the draft capital they’ve so willingly traded away the past 2 seasons. Woods’ departure would open up 139 targets and move Cooks up on the receiving totem pole. Either way, Cooks could provide a major value as my 9th round pick if he can bounce back to show us what we’ve already seen he can do. 

9.09 – David Johnson (RB, Arizona Cardinals)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I am not a zero-rb person, but a couple picks here and there, and this is where I’m at. This is a value pick that I think could pay off for being in the 9th round already. Now specifically in regards to DJ- talk about a fall from grace, yikes. One of the first things that comes to mind of DJ this year for me, is that video of him getting the hand off and just like jogging a few years and getting tackled- all time bad visual. 

But, going past the brutal end of the season, you really couldn’t have asked Johnson to start the season any better. At the end of week six, he was RB5 overall (121.3 pts/ 20.2 avg), and was making a lot of people very happy they went back in on him. Then he got hurt and it all went to hell. He just wasn’t the same it both physically and mentally it seemed. 

What makes DJ especially frustrating is taking a look at his career finishes in fantasy. In his three healthy seasons as the leader he has been a top 10 back, and began the 2019 season on that same trajectory. He is on a big contract and obviously anyone could get cut, but saving $4 million to have $18 million in dead cap doesn’t strike me as a probable roster move. Now the Cardinals have a ton in available cap so if they really like Drake, he could always come back, but he was honestly pretty bleh for the Cards until he won leagues in weeks 15 and 16. At the moment, would I be happy with him as my RB2- no, but real life, I’d have access to a high 2020 rookie pick which would be an RB for me (I’d be the 1.04), and DJ could be a later round value flex option moving forward.

9.10 – John Brown (WR, Buffalo Bills)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

John Brown fell into a great spot this year.  Hes shown the ability to be a team’s Wr1 but never has put it all together. John Brown and Josh Allen marriage was a perfect match. He had a career high in targets with 115, a career high in yards (1060), and career high in receptions with 72, finishing as a top 20 WR in 2019. There’s going to be some additions at WR this season for Buffalo but Brown has Allen’s trust and with Allen’s big arm those deep balls can happen anytime. He was a solid value at this spot and a solid WR2 in 2020.

9.11 – Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Pittsburgh Steelers)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

See, fam?  I told you I’d be all right at QB!  Ben will be back for at least one more year and his weapons are young and very dynamic.  My long term strategy here would be if towards the end of the season if I’m not competing for a trophy (unlikely lol), I would look to move Ben to a QB needy contender for future picks or youthful pieces.

9.12 – Mike Gesicki (TE, Miami Dolphins)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Selected 42nd overall (before Dallas Goedert) in the 2018 draft by Miami, Gesicki had a quiet rookie season with 22 receptions 202 yards. 

In 2019 the year started quietly again for Gesicki as he and Fitzpatrick struggled to connect. But after rookie stand out Preston Williams was lost for the season, we saw Fitz look to Gesicki as he accumulated 64 targets over the last 9 weeks of the season. The second year tight end made strides in 2019 and appears to be a part of the rebuild in Miami. The Dolphins might invest in a franchise QB in April who may tend to lean on his TE as many rookie signal callers do. Or they may roll another year with an aging veteran while they groom their future QB. Either way, Gesicki is locked into a starting role on a team that finds themselves trailing in games often. 

A raw athlete that is growing more comfortable with one hand in the dirt, Gesicki is moving up the dynasty ranks with room to grow. I don’t mind taking a chance on him at the end of the 9th Round. 

ROUND 10

10.01 – Sterling Shepard (WR, New York Giants)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Shepard only managed to be available for 10 games in 2019 due to injuries/concussion. Still, he managed to receive 83 targets in those games which ends up north of 120 targets on a 16 game pace. 

The Giants have found their future at QB with rookie Daniel Jones who impressed most of us this year after heavy mockery of the organization from critics who thought it was a major reach. I liked what I saw out of the Eli Manning replacement and believe it bodes well for the Giants’ weapons moving forward. While Golden Tate may have a few years left, his best days are behind him. This leaves Shepard and rookie D Slayton room to grow, with Daniel Jones in a new look Giants offense. 

As my WR4, behind Golladay, Gallup, and Woods, I’ll take the 120 targets and the upside that Shepard could be a top 25 WR in 2020.

10.02 – Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, Miami Dolphins)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

Since this was only slated to be a 10 round mock (we later decided to keep going to play it out but only write up the first 10 rounds), I wanted to further solidify my QB situation and take the Beard.  This is typical of what I would do in a startup of this format at both the QB and TE positions. If I am forced to “punt”, I will take three in a row to reach a certain comfort level.

Right before my pick, it was announced that Chan Gailey would be coming out of retirement to be the Dolphins new OC.  This move makes a lot of sense as Gailey invented the “spread” offense and would be a perfect OC for Tua Tagovailoa after the Dolphins draft him and “redshirt” his 2020 season to get healthy from his hip injury and learn this offense.  Gailey and Fitzpatrick are reunited as they were together for a combined 5 seasons with the Bills and the Jets. Fitz knows this spread offense well and will be a great fill in while Tua develops and a great mentor as well.  

Side note:  As mentioned, the draft has continued now and over the last few days there have been rumblings about my Colts going after Philip Rivers in FA.  So I picked up Rivers in the 11th round as my QB4.  

10.03 – Raheem Mostert (RB, San Francisco 49ers)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

Going into the 10th I felt like it was time for the upside picks. Mostert who was an afterthought going into 19 took over the RB1 role in Shanahan’s offense midseason and never looked back. Hes shown hes a perfect fit for the system. He had 137 attempts for 772 yds and averaged a little over 5 yards a carry. 10 total Tds on the year. He has shown a 3 down ability as well.  With Breida likely gone he’s the front runner to lead the backfield in 20 and if there’s a lead back in San Fran I want him on my roster.

10.04 – Will Dissly (TE, Seattle Seahawks)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I’ll be honest, I made this pick because I really wanted to write about Dissly, and I think his ADP is going to skyrocket in the upcoming months once people remember the beginning of the 2019 season (his ADP on Sleeper is still very low and has not bumped up for 2020). Like I spoke about in my Dallas Goedert write up, that was a bit of hopeful future pick with Ertz’s future possibly in limbo in Philly. So, I wanted to solidify my TE position before getting too far in the weeds in the TE position in case Ertz sticks around a little longer. 

Through nine weeks of the 2019 season, Dissly was a TE 1, which is pretty good considering he only played in the first 5 games before injuring his Achilles only a few snaps into week 6. Through those five weeks, Dissly was the 5th tight end overall, and only 11 points behind Hooper for TE1 overall. In those five games, Dissly had 23 receptions on 27 targets for 262 yards (11.4avg) and 4 touchdowns and another one on the ground. Though those numbers are a great start in general, what was very exciting about Dissly was his connection with Wilson inside the Red Zone. All four of his receiving touchdowns came inside the 20, and was clearly the top target when it came time to score. Lockett and Metcalf finished the season strong in this category (Locket #1, Metcalf #14 in RZ targets), but it stands to reason their numbers would be several targets, catches, and touchdowns less if Dissly was healthy for the full season. In regards to health, Seahawks Wire wrote in mid-October the Dissly’s surgery went well and is expected back for Training Camp which is a great outlook. As people continue to reflect on the 2019 season, expect to see Dissly to catch a serious bump in ADP and hype. Being able to snag someone I believe will be a TE1 and stack with Wilson was a great way for me to end the write-up portion of this draft. 

10.05 – Marvin Jones (WR, Detroit Lions)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

Yet another veteran receiver added to this core. Jones was the pick for me as I feel he can insulate the high variance of Terry McLaurin and Brandin Cooks on my roster. Marvin Jones is perpetually underappreciated as a strong WR2 in fantasy football. He’s 2019’s WR20 on a Points per Game basis with 14.9 PPG, and through week 14, prior to his injury, Jones was the WR16 in PPR formats. He got all this work done while having a true alpha playing across from him in Kenny Golladay, and amidst Quarterback turmoil after Matt Stafford’s season was cut short through 9 games.

Jones’ usage is simply stellar. Even missing 3 games to finish the year, Jones soaked up 14 red zone targets, 1 shy of Golladay’s season total and tied for 20th among NFL wide receivers. On those 14 targets inside the 20, Jones hauled in 8 touchdowns, 5 of which were from inside the 5 yard line. This red zone usage, his chemistry with Stafford, as well as his propensity for big plays are why I think Marv still has a couple seasons of solid production left. It may not be the greatest long term play, but I think I secured a solid day 1 contributor for my team who should easily return on the 10th round investment.

10.06 – Tyler Higbee (TE, Los Angeles Rams)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

I said earlier when I drafted Hunter Henry that my goal was to make sure I get another tight end with a high upside. After seeing the rest of the players I would be willing to take go by, I made my move to ensure I got someone I wanted in Tyler Higbee. 

He was the equivalent of waiver wire gold for owners in the fantasy playoffs and showed what he could be when given the targets. In Week 17, Higbee fell 16 yards short of becoming the first tight end to have five straight games with at least 100 receiving yards in NFL history. The Rams have him under contract through 2023, giving security to his locating for years to come. After seeing what he can do when getting the majority of looks at the TE position for the Rams, It would be foolish of them to shy away from him in 2020. I’ll take this upside in a TE premium league in the 10th round all day long.

10.07 – Mitchell Trubisky (QB, Chicago Bears)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Darnold, Cam and Haskins. Not exactly an awesome group of fantasy QBs. Trubisky, for all his faults, is at least a very high ceiling play in the right matchups.  Securing 4 starting QBs also gives me some flexibility to make trades down the line. 

I am not confident that Trubisky is the answer in Chicago, but it sounds like they are gonna give him another shot to prove it in 2020. That’s good enough for me. 

10.08 – Rashaad Penny (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Looking at my roster it’s obvious that I need another running back. I went WR in the last two rounds which left me light at RB, but again, in a startup I tend to worry more about WR more than RB, since you can almost always draft a RB in the first round of rookie drafts that can produce right away while WRs take longer.

Looking at what’s left at RB and here is who I’m considering: Rashaad Penny, James White, Tarik Cohen, and Tevin Coleman. White and Cohen are great PPR options but both have their own kinds of risk as well. Coleman is in a crowded backfield and hasn’t been able to establish the role for himself, so I don’t know if I can lean on him at all for a bye week fill in. Penny seems like a good fit as he should take over the lead back role for Seattle in the next year or two, and has bye week value in the meantime. Keep in mind that this draft is for vets only, so I would likely be targeting a RB in the early rounds of the rookie draft anyway, or could trade back and get one before the season starts anyway. Penny’s injury worries me but it doesn’t sounds fatal, so he becomes the obvious choice for my tenth pick. (EDIT: This pick was made prior to learning about Penny’s ACL injury)

10.09 – Preston Williams (WR, Miami Dolphins)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

As our mock draft neared its end, I went full upside with my Preston Williams pick. The undrafted rookie receiver burst onto the scene, leading the Dolphins with 428 receiving yards and 3 TDs on 32 receptions. Williams ranked fourth among all rookies in receiving yards behind DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and A.J. Brown when he was lost to a season-ending torn ACL. Miami is rebuilding and will likely draft a new franchise QB, which is hopefully a positive for Williams. There are a lot of needs for the team, and although WR isn’t necessarily one of them with the emergence of Williams and Devante Parker, we don’t know exactly how Brian Flores is going to build his new offense. On the other hand, Williams made his presence felt and the only reason he went undrafted out of Colorado State was his off-field issues which appear to be behind him now. At this point in any startup draft, you’re looking for young, high upside players and Preston is one to take a flyer on.

10.10 – Will Fuller (WR, Houston Texans)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

As with James Conner, I’m betting on another injury bounce back in Will Fuller. Young and talented, Fuller is the key that unlocks the Texans passing game. DeAndre Hopkins will always be the top option in Houston, but Fuller allows Watson to let loose. Fuller gives Watson access to the entire field and any game can be a fantasy home run. His dominant 53.7 point performance against the Falcons is the 9th best performance for a wide receiver in the history of football. In games where he was fully healthy, Fuller average 7.5 targets and 14.3 PPG, a number that is better than highly valued players like Diggs (4.09), Sutton (4.02), Boyd (7.07). 

As for the injury history, the concerns are very valid. Will has never played a full season during his four year career. It is not uncommon for athletes to take an additional season to truly recover from their ACL injuries, take a look at Dalvin Cook and Derrius Guice, each at different stages of recovery. All 3 of these athletes struggled with hamstring injuries in their first season after ACL reconstruction, but Dalvin shows that the extra offseason of strength building can bring you back to 100% form. I am projecting a Dalvin Cook type of recovery for Will Fuller and am satisfied to be taking that risk in the 10th round.

10.11 – James White (RB, New England Patriots)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

The New England Patriots have always seemed to find success with running backs on the “short” end of the stick. (Kevin Faulk, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead) And White is no exception. More slot receiver than running back, the Wisconsin product has tallied 159 receptions 1,396 yards and 12 touchdowns the last two years. Proving himself a reliable RB2 for fantasy teams. And his role shouldn’t change much next year… even if Tom Brady’s uniform does. 

10.12 – Julian Edelman (WR, New England Patriots)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

This pick was made before the recent news of Jules tying one on in Beverly Hills and getting arrested for a misdemeanor for jumping on the hood of, and damaging, someone’s car. Now, this is not saying that Edelman’s career will coming crashing down in flames. But, near the end of Wes Welker’s career he started to get into minor trouble too. That being said, as the last pick of this mock draft, I chose to still select the 100 reception 1,000 yard performer in 2019 because as long as TB12 is throwing the rock in New England, I believe he’ll continue to feed his favorite WR. Edelman maybe has 1-3 years left in his career and that’s enough for me to take a chance on drafting my 4th WR that is a great plug-in at Flex in ppr leagues. Plus there’s a lot worse you can do as Mr. Irrelevant in the draft than Julian Edelman.

Dynasty Startup Mock Draft – January 2020 (Part 2)

Dynasty Startup Mock Draft – January 2020 (Part 1)

Format: Dynasty, 12 teams
Rosters
: (1) QB, (2) RB,  (3) WR, (1) TE, (3) R/W/T, (1) Q/R/W/T
Scoring: PPR, TE Prem (1.5)

Participants/Draft Position:

  1. Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports
  2. Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables
  3. JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts
  4. Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables
  5. Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network
  6. Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank
  7. Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network
  8. Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football
  9. Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports
  10. Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables
  11. Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables
  12. D Brown – @DBrownFF88The Undroppables

ROUND 5

5.01 – Tyler Lockett (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Tyler Lockett was a WR1 lock for the entire #2on1Crew coming into 2019, as all of us were super high on Tyler. While Lockett wasn’t a disappointment as he improved on his 2018 numbers, he just barely missed WR1 territory at WR13 in PPR formats due to inconsistent games (5 out of 15 games under 10 points), the emergence of D.K. Metcalf, and a fluke injury (missed week 13). Even with DK performing like the freak athlete his workout pictures showed, Lockett still had plenty of big games to win weeks and prove he’s still a major factor in this offense. 

At 27 years old, he’s also not a young buck anymore, but like Allen Robinson, I feel they both have at least 2-3 solid years of high-level production left in their tanks. Which for me, is all I’m really looking for in dynasty as I’m in a constant “win-now” mode only looking a few years down the road. I also feel there’s always time in the distant future to blow up a team and rebuild. I’m projecting another 1,000+ yard season for Lockett, barring injury, given his 90% weekly average snap share and continued usage as the team’s WR1. 

5.02 – Calvin Ridley (WR, Atlanta Falcons)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Calvin Ridley ended his sophomore season with the same workmanlike stat line he managed as a rookie… but in three fewer games! I don’t think it’s any coincidence that 27% of Julio Jones’ production came in the final three weeks of 2019. When Ridley was sidelined with an abdominal injury. The offseason should allow him to heal nicely and reclaim his spot in one of the games most prolific passing offenses. We may be witnessing a changing of the guard here and even if Julio manages to stave off Father Time for a couple more seasons, a bad defense and shaky running game ensure there are plenty of balls to go around in Atlanta. 

5.03 – Mark Andrews (TE, Baltimore Ravens)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Lamar Jackson is straight fire and Greg Roman knows how to deploy the tight end. Mark Andrews was a touchdown stud this season and a fantasy anomaly with a crazy high amount of points per snap. While regression is possible in 2020, I am concerned here with only one number: 23 – The age of both our Pro Bowl heroes, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. Like quarterback, tight end is a position where I’m happy to settle with a top-end option that I can plug and forget. Andrews owners will be able to do just that with the youngest QB-TE pairing in the league.

5.04 – Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, San Francisco 49ers)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

In Superflex startup drafts, I rarely leave the 5th (or at the latest 6th) round without having two QBs as a foundation. Depending on what position you are drafting from, a single QB run can cripple an unprepared fantasy owner’s team for years. In fact, I may or may not have started such a run myself with my selection of Jimmy G here. As I started with Mahomes at the top of the draft, I looked for a safe QB2 with a decent floor and stable situation.

The 49ers may be a run-dominant team but Kittle and Deebo are playmakers with the ball in their hands, capable of taking any reception to the house. Additionally, Garoppolo threw for nearly 4,000 yards (3,978) with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on a team that plays good defense and runs the ball with 3 running backs. Although those are not eye dropping numbers, they’re solid and were good for a QB14 finish. That also seems like a nice floor for my QB2. I debated going with a younger (and more promising) QB in Jones or Darnold as I actually have them slightly higher in my dynasty rankings, but I wanted to lean a little more “win-now” with a player in a more stable situation.

5.05 – Daniel Jones (QB, Carolina Panthers)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

At this stage of the draft, having my first position player at each starting position, I decided to go back to quarterback since it’s a Superflex league and QBs will most likely be taken more often between this pick and my next, and there aren’t that many left that I’d like to start on a weekly basis. There are a few veteran options available but I really want to build this team for the long haul, and seriously consider Daniel Jones to be one of those pieces that are in my lineup for years, so he’s my pick at 5.05.

I know what you’re thinking, this is a little early and probably a reach, but I honestly think he’s got the skills and surrounding cast to grow in value in 2020 and beyond. Add to that the stack with my 3rd round pick in Evan Engram and it was a no brainer for me. There were others I considered, but I wanted to focus on QBs earlier than other positions given how hard good ones are to find. Welcome to the team, Mr. Jones!

5.06 – Sam Darnold (QB, New York Jets)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

In a Superflex Dynasty startup, you can certainly still choose to wait on Quarterback, but don’t try and get too cute. When the value shows itself, jump in it. Darnold is my QB8 in dynasty and I land him here as QB14. I like that a lot. Picking in the middle of the pack is an advantage because the runs on various positions don’t get too far out of reach. I just didn’t want to push my luck too much. I also considered drafting Todd Gurley here. I don’t think he will make it back to me, but I just wasn’t too sure about his future role. There are a slew of nice WRs that I have in a similar tier, so I’m sure one of them will be there for me on the comeback. 

5.07 – Jared Goff (QB, Los Angeles Rams)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

Knowing how to read a draft lobby and see when a run will start is a crucial skill and can make your pick for you before it even gets to you turn. That’s what happened here as I knew the QB run was about to hit. Three QBs went before me that were all in the range of guys I wanted. Behind me, 3 of the five teams only had one or none quarterbacks on their roster. My pick became easy at this point. Take who was left of that tier and move on. That ended up being Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams.

At QB15 off the board, I’m perfectly happy with this pick. I don’t need a stud quarterback for my Superflex spot. I need a reliable QB who has talent around him with upside. That is precisely what Goff gives me. Goff finished the year as QB13 on the season even though he tied for 1st in attempts (626) and was 3rd in passing yards (4,638). What kept him from being another top-10 finish was the reduction in touchdowns from 2018, throwing 22 last year. Some of the most talented players in the NFL surround Goff, and he is on offense that ran the 8th most passing plays in 2019 (62%). He is locked up on the Rams through 2024, and I expect to see solid QB2 production the entire way.

5.08 – Jameis Winston (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

Generally, if you’d ask me whether I wanted a 26-year-old QB who just threw more than 30 touchdowns and had the 8th best passing yardage season of all time, I’d say sign me up. When you tell me that quarterback is Jameis Winston…hesitations arise. Along with those 30+ touchdowns, Jameis is the inaugural member of the 30 and 30 club. He’s the first QB of all time to throw for at least 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. A dubious distinction.

With that said, I think Jameis, the QB5 in fantasy this season, will be going back to the Buccaneers in 2020. Despite the interceptions, Winston fits well in Bruce Arians’ scheme. He can and will (clearly) throw the ball all over the yard, and we saw that lead to fantasy success. From a dynasty lens, at best, Winston sticks with the Bucs, continuing to produce in a high octane passing offense. At worst, Jameis will still be fantasy relevant as a shorter-term, potential journeyman in the mold of Ryan Fitzpatrick. YOLO quarterback play is in his blood, and I’m here for it.

5.09 – Kirk Cousins (QB, Minnesota Vikings)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I was the first person to take the dive into three quarterbacks, hell some teams don’t even have one yet! This was a pick that I didn’t NEED to make, but it was something I’ve been wrestling with dynasty Superflex startups after getting in a few over the summer. Having a strong third quarterback option was something that showed to be very important to the best teams. Whether it be to protect yourself with injuries, or if another team needs a viable starter, having three very startable quarterbacks allows me to feel safe in my team. Now, I am not a proponent of starting your draft with 4,5,6… straight QB picks, I don’t think that is a successful strategy, three in the first five rounds even is a bit much for me. But, being able to completely solidify my QB room before any other team makes me feel good with the most important position in SuperFlex leagues. Also, this is fantasy, I don’t care about prime times wins and losses, I’ve had people argue with me over Cousins because he can’t win big games, but until fantasy starts giving points to primetime wins, I couldn’t care less about his W/L record. As long as he puts up points and is a viable fantasy QB, I will continue to draft when I he makes it around to me. 

Kirk Cousins was also someone for me who was at a tier-break over the next options. He is still relatively young at 31 years old and no real health concerns, is a set-in starter and just had his worst career fantasy finish as a starter at QB18 overall, prior to that he has always been a QB1. If the Vikings started the season actually passing the ball, I’d be willing to bet he could have made up the 21 total points separating him and the QB12 overall. I suspect the offensive play calling to be more balanced/ look more like weeks five and on, rather than the early season of 2019. He finished last season with 425 completions, this season he only had 444 attempts! This was a down year for him fantasy-wise, and I expect a return to his previous QB1 ways starting next year. 

5.10 – Matt Stafford (QB, Detroit Lions)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

I went after the value at RB and WR early in the draft but here I realized that I had to get a QB and Matthew Stafford was the clear-cut guy. Although he only played in 8 games this year, he looked good in those appearances. Detroit is trying to find an identity and as much as they want to be a ground and pound team it’s not how they win games. With Kj, Golladay, Jones, Hockenson all coming back Stafford is going to have to put the ball in the air for them to keep pace in the games. I’m looking for them to add a few playmakers this offseason as well putting Stafford value on the rise.

5.11 – Todd Gurley – (RB, Los Angeles Rams)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

Here is where I usually start looking for QBs in a Superflex format.  This past season, I drafted guys like Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen in this area.  Well, there was a 7 QB run prior to my pick and all of the QBs I would consider in that “tier” are now gone.

Once again, no worries.  I won championships this year with the Jackson/Allen combo as well as with a Cousins/Fitzpatrick combo.  Anyway, I couldn’t pass on Todd Gurley with this pick as my RB2.  At only 25 years old, Gurley should still have several more productive seasons.  I believe his 2019 decline was more due to awful offensive line play and a shift in schemes midseason more than it had to do with the arthritis issue.  He still ended the season with 12 touchdowns and will continue to be the go-to guy in goal to clutch situations. 

5.12 – Michael Gallup (WR, Dallas Cowboys)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

In 2019, Gallup had the breakout many were hoping for by eclipsing 1,000 yards with an impressive 16.8 yards per catch (10th). He more than doubled his 2018 production as we continued to see Amari Cooper perform with weekly inconsistency. The Cowboys will have to decide if they want to sign Cooper long term. In my opinion, the Cowboys should tag him in a “prove it” year. If the Cowboys decide to move on, Gallup becomes the WR1 in Dallas. 

The creativity that Kellen Moore brought to Dallas as OC is evident when looking at the numbers. The Cowboys set a franchise record for most yards (6,904) and most passing yards (4,751) in a season. We have seen Dak’s pass attempts go up every year since entering the league and should be good for 600+ attempts in 2020. Gallup is 23 years old and a top 20 Dynasty WR with room to grow. 

ROUND 6

6.01 – Devin Singletary (RB, Buffalo Bills)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

As the 2019 season unfolded one thing became clear, Singletary is the new workhorse back in Buffalo. From week 8 on, he averaged 70+% of snaps, and received a minimum of 15 carries in 6 of 8 of those games. With only Frank “Father Time” Gore taking touches away, Singletary will take over this backfield completely in no time. 

We have seen the benefits of having dual threat QB Josh Allen, creating lanes for the young playmaker out of Florida Atlantic. Singletary averaging 5.1 yards per carry, ranks 3rd in “Big Run Rate” (7.3%), and 3rd in “Juke Rate” (33.3%) showing just how dangerous he can be in the open field. 

The Bills found success in 2019 and have one of the stoutest defenses in the NFL, offering upside to the rushing game. Singletary is a Top 15 back in dynasty formats and a solid RB2.

6.02 – Zach Ertz (TE, Philadelphia Eagles)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

If you follow me on Twitter, you know I was very high on Michael Gallup and Devin Singletary last summer.  Both were the next two players on my list but this is what happens when you draft with sharks and DBrown scooped them both up.  But look who is still available somehow. Zach Ertz, in a TE premium format! The last TE drafted was Evan Engram at the 3.05 and I’m now getting Ertz with my 6.02.  This is my best value pick so far. Ertz isn’t on contract after next year and that is probably why he slipped but he shouldn’t have slipped that far.

People say Dallas Goedert caps Ertz’ value but I don’t see it that way as Ertz still sees a whopping 90% of snaps.  I look at this like a WR1/WR2 situation similar to Julio and Ridley in Atlanta. Does Ridley take away from Julio? Hell no, he doesn’t.

6.03 – Austin Ekeler (RB, Los Angeles Chargers)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

So looking to add a bit more to the RB core, I was stoked to see Ekeler sitting there. The biggest question mark here is what do the Chargers to replace Gordon who may be gone in free agency. Ekeler finished as a top 5 back in PPR and showed he could handle the load. He saw 132 attempts for 557 yards and 3 touchdowns. The money though is the 92 receptions on 108 targets for 993 receiving and 8 scores through the air. I believe they move forward with the 1-2 punch of Ekeler and Jackson and Ekeler’s usage in the pass game gives him a safe floor and a high ceiling going into 2020. 

6.04 – D.K. Metcalf (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I had a few running backs in mind here, but I thought at least one or two would drop to me in the seventh. It turns out they didn’t but I can make it work- no worries. Wide Receiver wise the few that went after my pick were really all in play for me. I really like F1, Deebo is going to be a steal for people, Kirk in the Arizona offense should really pop, and Boyd a few picks away is also someone I really like. To be honest I could have really gone with any of them and been happy. But, I decided to go with Metcalf for a couple reasons, not least of which was the Wilson stack. I believe Wilson will continue to be an elite Quarterback for years to come and Metcalf at only 22 years old (a year younger or more from the next few wide receivers off the board) should be a major benefactor throughout Wilson’s career. Now he was obviously aided playing time wise and option wise with the injury to Dissly (especially in the endzone), but he still saw 100 targets and put up 900 yards and 7 touchdowns, all with a pretty dismal catch rate of 58%. A little less volume, but more efficient with his looks seem very realistic to me. And what is nice, we already have a great example of that with his counterpart Tyler Lockett. Wilson may not throw as much as others, but he does throw a very fantasy friendly pass, and stacking recipients of those passes is something I would like to do. O and for what it’s worth, Lockett is set to be a free agent after the 2021 season at 29/30 years old for 2022. Metcalf could find himself as the WR1 for Wilson in the not so distant future.

6.05 – Terry McLaurin (WR, Washington Redskins)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

What a season for Terry F1 McLaurin! Missing 2 games due to injury, McLaurin finished 2019 as the WR27 with 58 receptions on 93 targets for 919 yards and 7 touchdowns. That performance cannot be discounted when you consider he endured season long Quarterback uncertainty on an offense not only stuck, but camped out in the mud.

While Washington historically has an appetite for dysfunction, they believe they have a future franchise quarterback in Dwayne Haskins (McLaurin’s college teammate in case you didn’t know) and their recent hiring of Ron Rivera as Head Coach is an encouraging sign for them gaining stability. Washington will surely look to add passing game weapons which should only help McLaurin as he seemed like the only show in town at times this season and could benefit from another threat drawing defensive attention. Second year breakouts for Wide Receivers are becoming a common trend so I wanted to make sure I was a year early on McLaurin’s because his price is only going to go up!

Roster build wise, Terry McLaurin as my WR2 feels risky given the current state of the offense. I was happy to bet on the talent and thought I’d be able to adequately stock up in the coming rounds. Having McLaurin’s youth and upside will be great for my team’s long term outlook.

6.06 – Deebo Samuel (WR, San Francisco 49ers)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

I’ll be honest; I love this pick so much. I needed a WR2 to pair with A.J. Brown and to grab Deebo Samuel in the 6th to be that guy is as good as I could have hoped. Once he got rolling in San Francisco, Samuel was a yardage monster. Samuel finished the season as the second-best wide receiver in yards after the catch/reception at 8.3 yards, only behind A.J. Brown (8.9). He finished the regular season with 57 catches for 802 yards, 159 rush yards, and six touchdowns, highlighted by an eight-game stretch with 697 scrimmage yards to end the year. Samuel fits everything I want in a WR when building a team. Young, advanced route tree, hyper-talented, and doesn’t require red zone targets to have a solid week. Take him in this range and enjoy the production for years to come.

6.07 – Cam Newton (QB, Carolina Panthers)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Risk/Reward and positional scarcity. These are the two main reasons for taking Cam Newton in this spot. Unless you think he is never playing again, Cam will be back and given a full opportunity to lead a team. If it’s Carolina, I’d like that. DJ, CMC and crew are a great supporting cast. But even if it’s somewhere else, he still has QB1 upside and with his rushing history, he has a pretty safe floor. The injuries are scary as hell, but they are baked into the price here. Cam at QB19 is never happening if we know he is fully healthy. 

The QBs are getting a little thin and I always want to leave a Superflex dynasty startup with at least 3 starting QBs. And with only 32 to go around, it gets thin quickly. 

6.08 – Christian Kirk (WR, Arizona Cardinals)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Back on the clock and looking for a WR. I full expect Larry Fitzgerald to retire this off-season, but even if he doesn’t, WR Christian Kirk should be a perfect WR2 for my team. He’s young and growing alongside a young gunslinging quarterback on a high-powered offense. Kirk had a quiet 2019 but I think he’s in for big things in dynasty and should be considered a high upside WR2 in most formats.

On top of that, pairing him with Thomas puts my WR corps in a good place. I could have picked Thielen or Hilton but both of them are just as risky and are a few years older. When building a new dynasty team everyone tends to prefer youth, so the odds of Kirk making it back to me feel low. Gotta get my guy here.

6.09 – Marlon Mack (RB, Indianapolis Colts)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

As I inadvertently went “Zero RB” for the first 5 rounds, focusing on the core pieces of QB and TE along with some young WR talent, I decided to seek the best RB value on the board and came across the intersection of the next 2 picks (Hunt and Carson). Along with Mack, these 3 backs are in the same tier, each possessing immense upside coupled with potentially troublesome question marks. Mack finds himself in a struggling offense and lacks pass-catching upside. At the same time, Mack posted over 1,000 yards rushing while averaging over 17 touches a game and never coughed up the ball. Hunt is a restricted free agent under the Browns control and without a lead role, he is stuck as a low-end RB2 at best. I am just a little concerned that the Browns do something terrible and overpay another talented (but unnecessary) RB. And I love Carson but the guy just can’t hold onto the ball and that is a pet-peeve of mine which caused me to go with Mack (although in hindsight, Carson was probably the right call here).

6.10 – Kareem Hunt (RB, Cleveland Browns)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

After locking up studs at each position, I feel comfortable gambling here. Instead of gambling on injury (Chris Carson) I’m rolling the dice on talent in Kareem Hunt. Although it is risky, I believe a team will make a trade for the Pro Bowler. Soon as he touched the field in Cleveland, he found fantasy relevance as a “second stringer.” Kareem had a phenomenally high snap share over the last 8 games at 59.9% (compared to Nick Chubb’s 63.9%). He even outsnapped Chubb 3 times. As incompetent as Kitchens was, he knew he had to give Kareem reps, the talent is undeniable. At just 24 years old, my risk is minimized by Kareem’s youth. Whether 2020 or 2021, Kareem will be on a new team and find himself back in elite territory. 

6.11 – Chris Carson (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Despite missing the seasons final week with a fractured hip, Seattle’s Bell Cow closed 2019 with 1,498 yards and 9 total touchdowns. I’m beyond thrilled to have waited this long to address the running back position and wind up with a guy as solid as Carson. Some of my competitors wondered loudly what my strategy would look like after waiting this long and I actually considered waiting one more round, but with Tommy having already spent a 3rd round pick on Travis Kelce I was confident my second option (TE Austin Hooper)  would come back to me. 

What many of my competitors seem to have forgotten is that in this hypothetical dynasty league we still have a rookie draft to navigate. And it is loaded with running back talent! And If the last few years have taught us anything it’s that rookie running backs almost always have an immediate impact. And they are much easier to find/replace than stud quarterbacks. So with the combination of a steady vet or two and some rookies, I believe I’ll have more than enough punch from my RBs!

6.12 – Le’Veon Bell (RB, New York Jets)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

My strategy for drafting is always to go with consistency for a minimum of 5 rounds, but ideally as long as you can with consistent players still on the board. After that, go upside. And you might be wondering where Le’veon Bell fits into that strategy, but a talented RB like Bell is bound to have a resurgence in his 2nd year back in the game. Even though 2019 wasn’t stellar for Bell, he was still the RB16 in PPR formats and his numbers should improve in 2020 either because Gase finally figures out how to use a RB, or because Bell feels even more comfortable running behind this O Line. 

I’ve now drafted my 3rd player 26+ years old in the first 6 rounds of this dynasty startup draft, which is risky and a strategy some people avoid completely. But again, if I can get 3 years of high production out of those players I’m happy. Additionally, since I like to build teams with 3 solid RBs, Bell still has the running and pass-catching ability to put up RB1/2 numbers. With plenty of skill position players on the roster, an offseason investment in the offensive line would bode extremely well for Bell and Darnold. Plus, worst case scenario, Gase doesn’t want Bell back next year and he lands on a team that can really use his talent, a low risk move since he’s the RB3 on my team. 

ROUND 7

7.01 – Ryan Tannehill (QB, Tennessee Titans)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Ryan Tannehill pulled a complete 180 on the 2019 season, coming in with very little value as a backup, and leaving with a ton of upside and the new heir apparent in Tennessee. It hasn’t been officially announced, but Ryan has effectively taken the job from Mariota, and in doing so, led the Titans to a playoff appearance. Getting the start in week 7, Tannehill put up respectable numbers throwing for 2,598 yards, 22 TDs, and only 5 INTs. He led the NFL with a 117.5 passer rating (℅ @NFL_Stats), and he completed 70% of pass attempts that were 9+ yards (℅ @WingfieldNFL). He raised the game of everyone around him, turning AJ Brown into a top fantasy WR target for 2020. And he opened up the game for the offense, for example, since he took over in week 7 the Titans ranked 1st in yards per play, 1st yards per rushing attempt, and 1st in yards per passing attempt (℅ @ScottBarrettDFB). And lastly, per @PFF he was the highest graded QB of 2019 with a 92.5% grade, ahead of Drew Brees, Russell Wilson, and everyone else. He certainly will enter 2020 with a ton of upside .

7.02 – Austin Hooper (TE, Atlanta Falcons)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Many people predicted an Austin Hooper breakout coming in 2019 and those of you who snagged him late in drafts were not disappointed. Not even a late season MCL sprain could keep him from posting the best season of his career to date. Hooper finished with 75 receptions for 787 yards and six touchdowns in just 13 games. And was the overall TE1 through the seasons first nine weeks. The 25 year old California native is set to become a free agent in March, and perhaps that’s why he fell down the board a bit as the Falcons have yet to engage him in talks. But no matter where he spends his future he will almost certainly be productive and snagging him this late in a TE premium league feels like stealing.

7.03 – Drew Brees (QB, New Orleans Saints)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Drew Brees is my last stand at Superflex’s make or break position: QB2. We had a surprising early run in the 5th round, but 2 guys I consider to be in the same tier were available late, Tannehill and Brees. Fantasy finishes are fool’s gold as injuries modify value drastically. Don’t be distracted by the ulnar collateral surgery that held Brees out for 5 weeks. He scored 20.4 PPG, 7th best in the league. Soon to be 41 years old, it makes sense that Brees has fallen as far as he has, but I’m happy to find a young QB in 2021, for now I’ll take the value of another quarterback playing behind a stellar offensive line with a fantastic playcaller. 

7.04 – Derrius Guice (RB, Washington Redskins)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

One of the most exciting yet enigmatic prospects in recent memory, Guice could pan out into perennial stud for the next 5-6 years or a “what could have been” pipe dream. As stated earlier, my last two picks were running backs as the RB talent pool from here gets fairly shallow and I’d rather take a chance on Derrius Guice than Lindsay, Montgomery, Ingram and even Kenyan Drake (who I debated here). But if I am debating between Guice (who has top 10 potential IF he can somehow stay healthy) or Drake (who broke out in a major way with Arizona but finds himself in an extremely unpredictable situation with David Johnson and a compelling third string back in Chase Edmonds).

Washington just hired Ron Rivera and based on the new Redskins head coach’s history with running backs, Guice’s 2020 outlook improves even though he’s on IR. Rivera and his defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio will play a hard-nosed, run-heavy scheme predicated on defense so a healthy Guice would see a workhorse type role. Guice may be coming off two consecutive seasons lost to knee injuries, but he will be turning only 23 in late June and still is one of the most talented backs in the league. Even with a limited sample (5 games in 2019), Guice ran for 245 yards (5.8 yards per carry) and 2 TDs while flashing the explosiveness we’d hope to see. 

7.05 – David Montgomery (RB, Chicago Bears)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Time to look for my RB2 and a top three 2019 rookie is still available in RB David Montgomery. He had an up and down year with the Bears, and is definitely considered risky, but most RB2s are these days. Putting him with Gordon makes my team riskier than usual but both could also be huge plays come the start of the 2020 season.

Overall, my roster is very balanced: 2 QBs, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, and a TE. In most startups I try to do something like this to avoid having a gap at any particular position, and in a draft like this with all of the sniping it’s important to stay focused and not go on tilt to reach for anyone, especially this early. Now that I’ve got a good base I can start looking for bench and high-floor picks to round out my risky starting squad.

7.06 – Tyler Boyd (WR, Cincinnatti Bengals)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Tyler Boyd is now my WR4 on this squad. 

Tyler Boyd – 25 yrs old – 147 targets

D.J. Chark – 23 yrs old – 118 targets 

Amari Cooper – 25 yrs – 119 targets 

Chris Godwin – 23 yrs – 120 targets 

We can start up to 5 or 6 wide receivers in this league format, so having young depth like this in a PPR format will pay dividends.  Add in Fournette who is only 24 years old and saw 100 targets himself this past season and I feel very good about competing early on and dominating in the future. 

I’ll need to continue to make good decisions to round out this squad.  But so far, I like it.

7.07 – Hunter Henry (TE, Los Angeles Chargers)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

I got sniped hard on this pick on a wide receiver I was banking on grabbing (Foreshadowing to what happened again later). Since we can start up to 5 WRs in this due to the flex spots, Tyler Boyd would have been a perfect fit with Samuel and Brown. Especially since all signs point to Joe Burrow going #1 overall to Cincinnati in the draft. Since this is a TE premium format, that became my next logical pivot since I needed to get one still, and so did 5 of the following 6 drafters. I wanted Austin Hooper and settled on Hunter Henry but had the plan moving forward to get another TE reasonably soon.

I don’t love this pick due to his injury history, but when he is on the field, Henry is a stud. He finished as TE9 in 2019 even while missing four games, averaging 12.4 points in PPR scoring. At 6’5″ and 25 years old, whoever is going to play QB for the Chargers will look for him in the red zone. I do expect them to either resign or franchise tag Henry this offseason to keep him around. He is my #7 tight in dynasty rankings, so this falls right in line. There are guys on the board who I like better long term, such as Hockenson or Fant. The issue is how long it can take for a talented tight end to develop. I’d love to grab one of them later on and let them hone their craft while I use Henry as my everyday starter.

7.08 – Noah Fant (TE, Denver Broncos)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

Fant was drafted with the 20th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft due to his off the charts athletic measurables and stellar college production, scoring 18 touchdowns in his final 2 seasons at Iowa.

Opinions were mixed on Fant’s production outlook as a rookie. He was joining an offense in flux with the Broncos, attached to a Quarterback who historically used Tight Ends heavily in Joe Flacco, and we all know how Tight Ends generally need 2 to 3 year to acclimate to the NFL and produce for Fantasy. Looking at the season as a whole for Fant, we see he cleared the elusive 500 yard benchmark for rookie Tight Ends. In fact, his 562 receiving yards are the 6th most of any rookie TE over the past 20 years. That’s more yardage than the likes of Gronkowski, Kittle, and Mark Andrews had in their rookie seasons. I chose Fant here because, being a Tight End premium league, most of the sure-thing tight ends were off the board already and Fant provided the most upside. I look for him to continue to improve on his solid rookie year, further cementing himself as an offensive focal point alongside Courtland Sutton.

7.09 – Dallas Goedert (TE, Philadelphia Eagles)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Ok, so…. This was a reach, can’t lie. A peak behind the curtains on this one; me sleeping peacefully on my couch, phone notification wakes me up- it’s 11:57 PM, see it is my turn to pick, and rather than just going back to bed and drafting in a few hours, I sleepily decide to make my pick, and lo and behold there has been a mini tight end run. Well it is a TE Premium league, I don’t want to fall behind, and Goedert presents a crazy high ceiling as we have seen what Ertz has done in that offense (and actually Goedert too) and Ertz could be a roster casualty and Dallas could be the TE1 in Philly in a matter of a few short months. So I make the pick and pass back out. For being half asleep, I can see my logic here, being fully awake the next morning, passing up Drake was something I was less than pleased with myself. 

But, I made the pick so I have to make it work regardless of how happy I am with it. The Philly offense was a bit of a trainwreck this season due to injuries, which I’m sure played a role in Dallas’s season, but he still finished the 2019 season as a TE1 this season with Ertz still there. He showed to be athletic and a playmaker for Wentz and is making considerably less money than Ertz and is four years his junior. So, if Ertz does get cut to save money, I just locked up an elite tight end spot for the next several years for great value. If I have to wait a few years this pick was a big miss. Such is life in the fantasy game. Luckily, I already have my eye on a few tight end options that I really like for 2020 and beyond that I know I can draft in a few rounds and will help me bolster this pick and protect me if it flops. 

7.10 – Darren Waller (TE, Oakland Raiders)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

In a TE Premium league, I needed to make a play here and while I like Waller at this spot he is a question mark for me in 20. He had 90 receptions on 117 targets for 1,145 yds and three TDs. He was a top 5 TE this year. Why the hesitation? Is Carr the QB next year? Who do they add in the draft or free agency as a wide receiver? Will Moreau eat into his targets? Will he stay on the right path? There’s risk with him but he should come in as a top 8 TE next year. However, I do worry about his target volume moving forward.

7.11 – Kenyan Drake (RB, Arizona Cardinals)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

No QB yet and the guys are starting to talk in the chat room.  “Paulie going zero QB in Superflex.” Insert *It’s a bold strategy, Cotton* gif here.  There is a handful of guys I would be happy with at this point, and based on the other rosters, 3 of them will still be there later.  I went with Kenyan Drake because I have always believed in his talent and he is one of several players to flourish once he got out from under Adam Gase’s wing.  Drake was the RB3 overall for the last three weeks with a whopping 7 TDs and 87% of the backfields’ touches.  He fits great into Kingsburys’ offense and the coach knows it. It has now come out that the coach actively sought out Drake in trade.  It has also come out that David Johnson did not fit in the “RPO” scheme and he has even reportedly offered to return kicks next year.  Yes, this is what it has come to, DJ asking to work special teams to stay relevant. Could the Cardinals draft a high profile RB or get one in free agency next year?  Sure, it’s possible. But why would they when they have so many holes and they have already found the perfect fit? Drake has hella upside as my RB3 and I firmly believe he will be the starter in 2020.

7.12 – Robert Woods (WR, Los Angeles Rams)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Approaching the turn of Rounds 7 and 8, I glance over my roster to check positional needs. Thus far, I have 2 QBs, 2RBs, and 2 WRs. Wanting to continue filling my starters, leaves me with TE, RB, WR. 

I’m a firm believer in locking up a Top 5 TE or punting the position until later in the draft. I was hoping perhaps that Hooper may fall to me here, but he went along with 4 others forcing me to wait on TE yet again. This now has me looking for a RB/WR combo. I selected Woods as the BPA on the board giving me a solid WR3. 

The last 2 years under McVay, Woods has been a consistent weapon in a powerful offense reaching 130+ targets in each season. These numbers prove to be enough for the WR11 and WR14 finish in PPR formats. In both seasons Woods was able to eclipse 1,000 yards. While Brandon Cooks may be getting faded in this offense with the emergence of the Rams TE (Everette, Higbee), Woods has remained a “go to” target for Goff having a minimum of 9 Targets their last 6 games.

Woods has a few more years of solid production and makes for a great WR3 on any team. My WR core now consists of Golladay, Gallup, and Woods. Great mix of consistency, youth, and upside. 

ROUND 8

8.01 – Phillip Lindsay (RB, Carolina Panthers)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

The Broncos had a new OC, a banged-up offensive line, and a QB carousel in 2019. Still, Lindsay found a way to make history by becoming the first ever undrafted NFL RB to rush for 1,000 yards in each of his first two seasons. Lindsay is no doubt, a special talent, and has a story that you can’t help but root for. 

Coming off a wrist surgery Lindsay looks to be in full health heading into 2020. Lindsay will be entering a contract year in 2020, so I expect the Broncos organization to restructure the current contract in order to lock up their stud RB for the future.

So long as Royce Freeman is splitting the backfield, Lindsay’s ceiling will be capped, but even with limited touches, Lindsay has produced steadily. Lindsay is just beginning to scratch the surface of his potential. Broncos have a stout defense and no sure thing at QB, which should keep the offensive game plan close to the line of scrimmage. This is bound to leave a plethora of touches to be had moving forward.

The combination of youth and talent make Lindsay a great RB3 for my team that already boasts Nick Chubb and Devin Singletary. I’ll plan to continue adding RB depth in the upcoming rookie draft. Having Lindsay as my oldest RB at age 25 has my team stacked nicely with youth for the future. 

8.02 – Gardner Minshew (QB, Jacksonville Jaguars)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

OK, it’s finally time to pull the trigger on a QB.  I have a plan and it includes 1 or possibly 2 other QBs starting ahead of Minshew but I’m ok rolling him out there.  His 3,271 yard campaign with a 21/6 TD/INT ratio and 67 rushes for 344 yards in only 14 games has really flown under the radar in my opinion and based on how the town has embraced this kid and how marketable he is, he will be the starter in 2020.  Remember he was a 6th round pick and wasn’t supposed to see the field this year. He has heart and moxy and that, along with his impressive first-year stats, makes me comfy taking him as my first QB off the board. Just wait, kids. I’ll be OK. Trust me.

8.03 – Derek Carr (QB, Oakland Raiders)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

QBs are getting slim so taking my shot here on Carr. Is he the future for the franchise? No idea.  He’s been a bag of mixed results, only throwing for over 4000 yds twice in his career so he’s not a sure-fire stud but if they choose to build around him, add playmakers, improve the o line I do think he could finish as a top 12 QB in 2020. As my QB2, he is risky but the wait on QB could pay off a bit.

8.04 – Adam Thielen (WR, Minnesota Vikings)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I think people kind of forget about Thielen to be honest. 2017- WR8 (239 points), 2018- WR 7 (307 points), and was the WR9 this season before getting injured and sputtering the rest of the season. So in the 8th round I can land someone that was a WR1 the past two seasons, and was on pace to continue that streak, ya I will take that. Not for nothing, in case something happens in my QB slot, I can now stack Cousins and Thielen too which is nice, though that wasn’t really a big factor with this pick, just an added bonus. He is 29 but that doesn’t scare me too much, still should have a few more years of strong production, and seems like someone that could be in store for contract restructuring after the 2020 season

8.05 – Mark Ingram (RB, Baltimore Ravens)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

For this pick, I went down to B-More, outside the Bank, and put some BIG TRUSS into this Baltimore offense! This rushing attack was stellar this year. We all know the history Lamar Jackson made across the board, but Mark Ingram has been a huge part of the Ravens’ success.

The RB11 in PPR formats, Ingram cleared 1000 yards rushing for the third time in his career and set a new career high with 15 touchdowns (10 rushing, 5 receiving). Looking at whether those touchdowns are sustainable, we see that Ingram totaled the 10th most red zone carries in the league with 40, and 14 of his 15 total touchdowns came from inside the 20. In fact, Ingram, Lamar Jackson, and Gus Edwards were all top 36 in the NFL in red zone carries, which tells me that when they’re near pay dirt, they want to run the ball. So, while Ingram’s 15 touchdowns are likely to regress, he will still be put in a position to succeed being given high leverage touches. From a dynasty lens, the potential loss of Greg Roman, and insertion of Justice Hill into meaningful carries, did give me some pause but this is an offense I want pieces of with Lamar Jackson at the helm. And in the 8th round I couldn’t pass Ingram up. He may only have 2-3 years of high-level production left, but with Aaron Jones and Kerryon Johnson on my team already, there is potential volatility atop my depth chart. I expect similar volume in 2020, and attached to that QB….I’m bout dat. WOO WOO!

8.06 – Sony Michel (RB, New England Patriots)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

Do you know how you say every draft that you won’t draft a New England Patriots running back and end up doing anyway? Yeah, that’s this pick right here. I don’t love it, and I don’t hate it at the ADP and need for my team. Going RB/RB with my first two picks, gave me some leeway to address other needs before coming back. I wanted this to be either Derrius Guice or Kenyan Drake, but given the group of drafters, didn’t happen. I needed a solid RB3, and Michel gives me that after back to back seasons where he finished above RB36. At only 24 years old, there is still plenty of time for him to develop. In 2019, Michel saw 15 or more touches in 11 games, showing the volume is there. With all the uncertainty surrounding the Patriots for the first time in decades, it seems, relying on a rushing game is an easy way to help with a transition. 

8.07 – Dwayne Haskins (QB, Washington Redskins)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Haskins joins Darnold and Cam in my quarterback stable. He is drafted as the QB24 and that is value in my book. Haskins remains a very low cost starting QB. He is only 22 years old and entering his second season he will be greeted with more stability. Ron Rivera will be leading the team and with Terry McLaurin and other young weapons taking another step forward, I think Haskins value will rise during 2020. 

Which hits on one more strategy I try to keep in mind with every pick.  “Will this player be worth more in 12 months from now?” I want that answer to be ‘Yes’ for as many picks as possible. In dynasty, these players are not only point scorers for you team, they are also assets that behave like currency. Make sure your team has more ‘arrow up’ guys than not. 

8.08 – Mike Williams (WR, Los Angeles Chargers)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

I considered a few options at this pick, but it was mainly between RB and WR since I have two of each. There are some bench QBs left and plenty of TE options, even for a TE premium league, so I didn’t see the urgency in either of those positions for this pick. Given that it’s a PPR league and wide receivers are generally more valuable in dynasty leagues anyway, I went with the WR position.

Once I knew what position it was between a few players at that position: TY Hilton, Mike Williams, or Devante Parker. I think all three have immense value as a WR3 but the youth factor puts Mike Williams at the top of the list for me. I’m not sure I can trust Parker for the long haul, especially if Fitz-magic leaves the Dolphins, and TY Hilton is a WR1 when healthy, but we aren’t certain how long that will be. GImme MikeWill and my WR3 slot is set.

8.09 – Marquise Brown (WR, Baltimore Ravens)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

As long as I have at least two QBs after the 6th round, I tend to look for high upside WRs and RBs who might be an injury away from winning leagues. A rash of quarterbacks and running backs left some WR value so I hit the button on Hollywood Brown. Tied to the MVP-favorite for years to come, Brown boasts an incredibly high ceiling with his blazing speed which allows him to take the top of the defense on any given play. Brown only had 44 receptions for 569 yards but he saw nearly 20% of the Ravens’ red zone targets (12) and also posted a respectable 14.6% HOG Rate (5.6 targets per game). Jackson and Brown have a strong connection as noticed from the target distribution and things should only improve from a WR44 finish in 2019 where Hollywood averaged 11 PPR points per game. I consider Brown a low-end WR3 with the potential to develop into a perennial top 25 WR over the next couple of years.

8.10 – Jarvis Landry (WR, Cleveland Browns)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

After taking James Conner in the 5th round, I quickly realized how crazy deep running back is this year. I expected Drake and Lindsay types to go in the 5th/6th, but after seeing them fall two whole rounds, we see that the strong rookie RB class has deflated the cost of some of the tailend RB2s. 

Jarvis Landry is a basic value grab, a young, consistent WR2 whose playstyle can offer another 5+ years of fantasy relevance. He’s a true WR2/3 lacking WR1 upside with Odell there, but again, circumstances change, 27 year old talent does not. I’m not concerned with rostering two Browns receivers either. Landry’s 138 targets rank 9th in the NFL and he actually received more opportunities than Beckham (135).  If needed, Landry will be an easy flip when Cleveland adds an offensive-minded head coach to right the ship. 

8.11 – N’Keal Harry (WR, New England Patriots)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

This kid has loads of talent and this will most likely be the lowest his value will ever be. He fortifies an already impressive receiving corp and If He develops the way many of us think, we could be talking about a second round pick two years from now. There are suddenly questions surrounding the QB position in New England and that might have contributed to his fall. But the beauty of this pick is that I don’t need immediate production from him and the Patriots brain trust usually gets it right.

8.12 – Curtis Samuel (WR, Carolina Panthers)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I’m going all upside here as the 3rd year wideout didn’t have the 3rd year breakout that many of us in the fantasy football community were expecting. Still, at 23 years old with a ton of speed and talent, he had over 100 targets in 2019 and averaged an impressive 11.6 yards per catch. Samuel’s 2020 outlook isn’t amazing currently with a new Head Coach, new QB, and D.J. Moore taking the reigns as the team’s WR1. However, the opportunity will definitely be there as Samuel averaged an 86% snap share in 2019, which he turned into 54 catches for 627 yards and 6 TDs. The only problem with Samuel’s game is it’s all based on volume as he’s not going to take the top off a defense as a deep threat and he failed to hit the century mark even once this past season. However, at this point in the draft, I can take a chance on a young player because I’ve chosen to draft consistency while sacrificing youth. But a new HC, play-caller and dynamic QB could be a serious game changer for Curtis. 

ROUND 9

9.01 – Drew Lock (QB, Denver Broncos)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Jeezy likes him so I gotta too right?! Besides this kid’s affinity for trap music, he will be taking the helm for the Broncos going into 2020, at least according to John Elway. The 2019 rookie did not start until week 13 against the Chargers but impressed, winning 4 of the last 5 games of the year. By shipping off Sanders the Broncos got a lot younger and with another playmaking WR and an investment in the offensive line, Lock should be a lock for a solid QB2 next year and a consistent Superflex starter for the next few years. 

9.02 – Devonta Freeman (RB, Atlanta Falcons)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

If this is starting to sound like an Atlanta season rewind to you, you’re not alone! I’m never happy placing so many eggs in one basket and three starters on one team is probably one too many. Even if the Atlanta offense remains one of the league’s best. But at this point in the draft Freeman was the best of the rest at running back and there is no guarantee Hooper will be back in Atlanta next summer (As mentioned, the 25 year old star is a free agent).

Freeman closed 2019 strong and though the explosiveness that once made him one of the games best runners has long been sapped by injury, he still managed to eclipse eighteen fantasy points six times in 2019. 

9.03 – Ronald Jones (RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Ronald Jones is 22 years old and his development over the last season has been drastic. I did not expect to enjoy Jones’ 2019 tape as much as I have. After a dive in the film room, I can say I expect the former 2nd round pick to be highly competitive in camp if the Bucs decide to pick up a rookie (and they should). During his 2018 rookie season, Jones’ struggled catching up to the game speed and was slow in finding holes that were less obvious than the highway lanes he ran on in the Pac-12. Jones has shown plenty of explosiveness in year 2 and his skill at the second level has begun to resemble the stud we saw at USC. His involvement in the passing game has grown, and although he has work to do in pass protection, I think Bucs head coach Bruce Arians views him as a competitive back on first and second downs.

For me, the main concern with this pick is not Jones himself, but the competition the Buccaneers decide to bring in. Jameis Winston and a trio of key defensive linemen (Shaq Barrett, Ndamukong Suh, and Jason Pierre-Paul) are free agents heading into 2020. Adding a big name like Melvin Gordon or David Johnson depends on how the flexible the front office can get with $90 million in cap space. If they can’t go with a big name, I expect Jones to compete against a rookie for prime position in Arians’ high powered offense. While 2018 Ronald Jones would have gotten swept, 2020 Ronald Jones will have a leg up.

9.04 – T.J. Hockenson (TE, Detroit Lions)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

I already drafted Kittle back in the 2nd round but that didn’t stop me from grabbing the next in line of dominant Iowa tight ends in T.J. Hockenson. Big bodied, explosive with good pass blocking skills, Hockenson possesses the key qualities of a true all-around TE1. The Lions rookie broke out in Week 1 with  6 receptions, 131 yards and a touchdown but then disappeared thereafter and eventually suffered a season ending ankle injury. It’s generally understood that it takes young tight ends several years to develop and Hock is no exception. He’s flashed his big play ability at times but also demonstrated he needs to improve with blocking and not dropping passes (especially red zone targets). In the TE wasteland, things are muddled after the top 5 or so, but Hockenson is a solid top 10 talent at the position with potential to become elite over the next couple of years.

9.05 – T.Y. Hilton (WR, Indianapolis Colts )
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Well, if you read my previous write up, I was considering taking Hilton in the last round, so he’s an easy choice for me here. Yes, he’s getting older and has health issues, along with some potential QB uncertainty, but he’s still a viable option for fantasy in most weeks, even in dynasty. Hilton deserves a spot as my WR4 and will be a great bye week fill in or flex option most weeks since I can take on a little risk and age with how I’ve built this roster so far.

At this point, I will say here that while youth is key, a good dynasty roster has a mix of old and young players. You don’t want to have all old guys who will win now and leave you crushed for a few years while you rebuild, but you also don’t want only young players who are growing and forcing you to lose for years while they figure it out. No. You need a mix so you can retire/drop a few players every year as you draft new ones. It makes for a well-rounded team and gives you some options to trade away to contenders if your season takes a turn south early as well. Don’t be afraid of older guys, especially in the 9th round of a startup. They can still help and provide some balance to your squad.

9.06 – Devante Parker (WR, Miami Dolphins)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

This pick was a very exciting pick for the whole league.  But there’s a lesson here. Here it is: We drafted this team on Sleeper.  And the default rankings were set up as 2019 ADP. And for that reason, Parker was waaaay down the list.  So we all missed him. When I made the pick, all the other drafters were reacting to the pick because they couldn’t believe he was still there. 

The lesson here is to look at your site’s adp and rankings and make sure you have your own rankings. Look deep in the player list and either mark them on the watch list, or put them in your queue. This is a great way to gain an edge on your opponents when you’re doing a real draft for real money.  This one was just for bragging rights, so all I get to do is gloat. I’d prefer to be stacking duckets. 

My WR core now (can start 5):

Tyler Boyd – 25 yrs old – 147 targets

D.J. Chark – 23 yrs old – 118 targets 

Amari Cooper – 25 yrs – 119 targets 

Chris Godwin – 23 yrs – 120 targets

Devante Parker – 26 yrs – 128 targets 

9.07 – Mecole Hardman (WR, Kansas City Chiefs)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

Remember where I said I got sniped again on a wide receiver? This was where it happened. I thought I was going to be sneaky when I took Michel and let Parker slide to me, thinking that everyone had forgotten about him. Scott had other plans as he scooped him up right before I had a chance. After a few choice words in chat, I settled down and had to make a move. I was still going to go wide receiver as I only had 2 to this point. There weren’t a lot of other options that I loved, so I went with the high upside play in Kansas City Chiefs’ speedster Mecole Hardman. 

I guess I have a thing for guys who are primed or second-year breakouts as I now have 3 of them starting for me in the team. Averaging 20.69 yards per reception, he is one broken tackle from taking any pass to the house. 

9.08 – Brandin Cooks (WR, Los Angeles Rams)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

This was a tougher pick to make as Cooks’ 2019 has been unmistakably awful. Not only has he not been productive when on the field, Cooks had concussion issues which sparked much concern for his dynasty prospects. While I also have those concerns, this price point was too good to pass up. Cooks will have just turned 27 by the time next season starts and his history of production can’t be denied. Prior to this season, Cooks had 4 straight 1000 yard seasons for 3 different teams. 

There was one caveat in this pick which is yet to unfold. I think Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods will be moved this offseason. The Rams could certainly use the cap relief with just under $8.5 Million in projected cap space for 2020. They’ll have to pay Cooper Kupp soon and we saw them utilize their tight ends very effectively in the passing game this season.They won’t be able to cut Cooks as his dead cap hit would be more than $21 Million but yet another trade could be in the cards. His $16.8 Million cap hit would come off the books and the Rams would likely recoup some of the draft capital they’ve so willingly traded away the past 2 seasons. Woods’ departure would open up 139 targets and move Cooks up on the receiving totem pole. Either way, Cooks could provide a major value as my 9th round pick if he can bounce back to show us what we’ve already seen he can do. 

9.09 – David Johnson (RB, Arizona Cardinals)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I am not a zero-rb person, but a couple picks here and there, and this is where I’m at. This is a value pick that I think could pay off for being in the 9th round already. Now specifically in regards to DJ- talk about a fall from grace, yikes. One of the first things that comes to mind of DJ this year for me, is that video of him getting the hand off and just like jogging a few years and getting tackled- all time bad visual. 

But, going past the brutal end of the season, you really couldn’t have asked Johnson to start the season any better. At the end of week six, he was RB5 overall (121.3 pts/ 20.2 avg), and was making a lot of people very happy they went back in on him. Then he got hurt and it all went to hell. He just wasn’t the same it both physically and mentally it seemed. 

What makes DJ especially frustrating is taking a look at his career finishes in fantasy. In his three healthy seasons as the leader he has been a top 10 back, and began the 2019 season on that same trajectory. He is on a big contract and obviously anyone could get cut, but saving $4 million to have $18 million in dead cap doesn’t strike me as a probable roster move. Now the Cardinals have a ton in available cap so if they really like Drake, he could always come back, but he was honestly pretty bleh for the Cards until he won leagues in weeks 15 and 16. At the moment, would I be happy with him as my RB2- no, but real life, I’d have access to a high 2020 rookie pick which would be an RB for me (I’d be the 1.04), and DJ could be a later round value flex option moving forward.

9.10 – John Brown (WR, Buffalo Bills)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

John Brown fell into a great spot this year.  Hes shown the ability to be a team’s Wr1 but never has put it all together. John Brown and Josh Allen marriage was a perfect match. He had a career high in targets with 115, a career high in yards (1060), and career high in receptions with 72, finishing as a top 20 WR in 2019. There’s going to be some additions at WR this season for Buffalo but Brown has Allen’s trust and with Allen’s big arm those deep balls can happen anytime. He was a solid value at this spot and a solid WR2 in 2020.

9.11 – Ben Roethlisberger (QB, Pittsburgh Steelers)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

See, fam?  I told you I’d be all right at QB!  Ben will be back for at least one more year and his weapons are young and very dynamic.  My long term strategy here would be if towards the end of the season if I’m not competing for a trophy (unlikely lol), I would look to move Ben to a QB needy contender for future picks or youthful pieces.

9.12 – Mike Gesicki (TE, Miami Dolphins)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Selected 42nd overall (before Dallas Goedert) in the 2018 draft by Miami, Gesicki had a quiet rookie season with 22 receptions 202 yards. 

In 2019 the year started quietly again for Gesicki as he and Fitzpatrick struggled to connect. But after rookie stand out Preston Williams was lost for the season, we saw Fitz look to Gesicki as he accumulated 64 targets over the last 9 weeks of the season. The second year tight end made strides in 2019 and appears to be a part of the rebuild in Miami. The Dolphins might invest in a franchise QB in April who may tend to lean on his TE as many rookie signal callers do. Or they may roll another year with an aging veteran while they groom their future QB. Either way, Gesicki is locked into a starting role on a team that finds themselves trailing in games often. 

A raw athlete that is growing more comfortable with one hand in the dirt, Gesicki is moving up the dynasty ranks with room to grow. I don’t mind taking a chance on him at the end of the 9th Round. 

ROUND 10

10.01 – Sterling Shepard (WR, New York Giants)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Shepard only managed to be available for 10 games in 2019 due to injuries/concussion. Still, he managed to receive 83 targets in those games which ends up north of 120 targets on a 16 game pace. 

The Giants have found their future at QB with rookie Daniel Jones who impressed most of us this year after heavy mockery of the organization from critics who thought it was a major reach. I liked what I saw out of the Eli Manning replacement and believe it bodes well for the Giants’ weapons moving forward. While Golden Tate may have a few years left, his best days are behind him. This leaves Shepard and rookie D Slayton room to grow, with Daniel Jones in a new look Giants offense. 

As my WR4, behind Golladay, Gallup, and Woods, I’ll take the 120 targets and the upside that Shepard could be a top 25 WR in 2020.

10.02 – Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB, Miami Dolphins)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

Since this was only slated to be a 10 round mock (we later decided to keep going to play it out but only write up the first 10 rounds), I wanted to further solidify my QB situation and take the Beard.  This is typical of what I would do in a startup of this format at both the QB and TE positions. If I am forced to “punt”, I will take three in a row to reach a certain comfort level.

Right before my pick, it was announced that Chan Gailey would be coming out of retirement to be the Dolphins new OC.  This move makes a lot of sense as Gailey invented the “spread” offense and would be a perfect OC for Tua Tagovailoa after the Dolphins draft him and “redshirt” his 2020 season to get healthy from his hip injury and learn this offense.  Gailey and Fitzpatrick are reunited as they were together for a combined 5 seasons with the Bills and the Jets. Fitz knows this spread offense well and will be a great fill in while Tua develops and a great mentor as well.  

Side note:  As mentioned, the draft has continued now and over the last few days there have been rumblings about my Colts going after Philip Rivers in FA.  So I picked up Rivers in the 11th round as my QB4.  

10.03 – Raheem Mostert (RB, San Francisco 49ers)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

Going into the 10th I felt like it was time for the upside picks. Mostert who was an afterthought going into 19 took over the RB1 role in Shanahan’s offense midseason and never looked back. Hes shown hes a perfect fit for the system. He had 137 attempts for 772 yds and averaged a little over 5 yards a carry. 10 total Tds on the year. He has shown a 3 down ability as well.  With Breida likely gone he’s the front runner to lead the backfield in 20 and if there’s a lead back in San Fran I want him on my roster.

10.04 – Will Dissly (TE, Seattle Seahawks)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I’ll be honest, I made this pick because I really wanted to write about Dissly, and I think his ADP is going to skyrocket in the upcoming months once people remember the beginning of the 2019 season (his ADP on Sleeper is still very low and has not bumped up for 2020). Like I spoke about in my Dallas Goedert write up, that was a bit of hopeful future pick with Ertz’s future possibly in limbo in Philly. So, I wanted to solidify my TE position before getting too far in the weeds in the TE position in case Ertz sticks around a little longer. 

Through nine weeks of the 2019 season, Dissly was a TE 1, which is pretty good considering he only played in the first 5 games before injuring his Achilles only a few snaps into week 6. Through those five weeks, Dissly was the 5th tight end overall, and only 11 points behind Hooper for TE1 overall. In those five games, Dissly had 23 receptions on 27 targets for 262 yards (11.4avg) and 4 touchdowns and another one on the ground. Though those numbers are a great start in general, what was very exciting about Dissly was his connection with Wilson inside the Red Zone. All four of his receiving touchdowns came inside the 20, and was clearly the top target when it came time to score. Lockett and Metcalf finished the season strong in this category (Locket #1, Metcalf #14 in RZ targets), but it stands to reason their numbers would be several targets, catches, and touchdowns less if Dissly was healthy for the full season. In regards to health, Seahawks Wire wrote in mid-October the Dissly’s surgery went well and is expected back for Training Camp which is a great outlook. As people continue to reflect on the 2019 season, expect to see Dissly to catch a serious bump in ADP and hype. Being able to snag someone I believe will be a TE1 and stack with Wilson was a great way for me to end the write-up portion of this draft. 

10.05 – Marvin Jones (WR, Detroit Lions)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

Yet another veteran receiver added to this core. Jones was the pick for me as I feel he can insulate the high variance of Terry McLaurin and Brandin Cooks on my roster. Marvin Jones is perpetually underappreciated as a strong WR2 in fantasy football. He’s 2019’s WR20 on a Points per Game basis with 14.9 PPG, and through week 14, prior to his injury, Jones was the WR16 in PPR formats. He got all this work done while having a true alpha playing across from him in Kenny Golladay, and amidst Quarterback turmoil after Matt Stafford’s season was cut short through 9 games.

Jones’ usage is simply stellar. Even missing 3 games to finish the year, Jones soaked up 14 red zone targets, 1 shy of Golladay’s season total and tied for 20th among NFL wide receivers. On those 14 targets inside the 20, Jones hauled in 8 touchdowns, 5 of which were from inside the 5 yard line. This red zone usage, his chemistry with Stafford, as well as his propensity for big plays are why I think Marv still has a couple seasons of solid production left. It may not be the greatest long term play, but I think I secured a solid day 1 contributor for my team who should easily return on the 10th round investment.

10.06 – Tyler Higbee (TE, Los Angeles Rams)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

I said earlier when I drafted Hunter Henry that my goal was to make sure I get another tight end with a high upside. After seeing the rest of the players I would be willing to take go by, I made my move to ensure I got someone I wanted in Tyler Higbee. 

He was the equivalent of waiver wire gold for owners in the fantasy playoffs and showed what he could be when given the targets. In Week 17, Higbee fell 16 yards short of becoming the first tight end to have five straight games with at least 100 receiving yards in NFL history. The Rams have him under contract through 2023, giving security to his locating for years to come. After seeing what he can do when getting the majority of looks at the TE position for the Rams, It would be foolish of them to shy away from him in 2020. I’ll take this upside in a TE premium league in the 10th round all day long.

10.07 – Mitchell Trubisky (QB, Chicago Bears)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Darnold, Cam and Haskins. Not exactly an awesome group of fantasy QBs. Trubisky, for all his faults, is at least a very high ceiling play in the right matchups.  Securing 4 starting QBs also gives me some flexibility to make trades down the line. 

I am not confident that Trubisky is the answer in Chicago, but it sounds like they are gonna give him another shot to prove it in 2020. That’s good enough for me. 

10.08 – Rashaad Penny (RB, Seattle Seahawks)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Looking at my roster it’s obvious that I need another running back. I went WR in the last two rounds which left me light at RB, but again, in a startup I tend to worry more about WR more than RB, since you can almost always draft a RB in the first round of rookie drafts that can produce right away while WRs take longer.

Looking at what’s left at RB and here is who I’m considering: Rashaad Penny, James White, Tarik Cohen, and Tevin Coleman. White and Cohen are great PPR options but both have their own kinds of risk as well. Coleman is in a crowded backfield and hasn’t been able to establish the role for himself, so I don’t know if I can lean on him at all for a bye week fill in. Penny seems like a good fit as he should take over the lead back role for Seattle in the next year or two, and has bye week value in the meantime. Keep in mind that this draft is for vets only, so I would likely be targeting a RB in the early rounds of the rookie draft anyway, or could trade back and get one before the season starts anyway. Penny’s injury worries me but it doesn’t sounds fatal, so he becomes the obvious choice for my tenth pick. (EDIT: This pick was made prior to learning about Penny’s ACL injury)

10.09 – Preston Williams (WR, Miami Dolphins)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

As our mock draft neared its end, I went full upside with my Preston Williams pick. The undrafted rookie receiver burst onto the scene, leading the Dolphins with 428 receiving yards and 3 TDs on 32 receptions. Williams ranked fourth among all rookies in receiving yards behind DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, and A.J. Brown when he was lost to a season-ending torn ACL. Miami is rebuilding and will likely draft a new franchise QB, which is hopefully a positive for Williams. There are a lot of needs for the team, and although WR isn’t necessarily one of them with the emergence of Williams and Devante Parker, we don’t know exactly how Brian Flores is going to build his new offense. On the other hand, Williams made his presence felt and the only reason he went undrafted out of Colorado State was his off-field issues which appear to be behind him now. At this point in any startup draft, you’re looking for young, high upside players and Preston is one to take a flyer on.

10.10 – Will Fuller (WR, Houston Texans)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

As with James Conner, I’m betting on another injury bounce back in Will Fuller. Young and talented, Fuller is the key that unlocks the Texans passing game. DeAndre Hopkins will always be the top option in Houston, but Fuller allows Watson to let loose. Fuller gives Watson access to the entire field and any game can be a fantasy home run. His dominant 53.7 point performance against the Falcons is the 9th best performance for a wide receiver in the history of football. In games where he was fully healthy, Fuller average 7.5 targets and 14.3 PPG, a number that is better than highly valued players like Diggs (4.09), Sutton (4.02), Boyd (7.07). 

As for the injury history, the concerns are very valid. Will has never played a full season during his four year career. It is not uncommon for athletes to take an additional season to truly recover from their ACL injuries, take a look at Dalvin Cook and Derrius Guice, each at different stages of recovery. All 3 of these athletes struggled with hamstring injuries in their first season after ACL reconstruction, but Dalvin shows that the extra offseason of strength building can bring you back to 100% form. I am projecting a Dalvin Cook type of recovery for Will Fuller and am satisfied to be taking that risk in the 10th round.

10.11 – James White (RB, New England Patriots)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

The New England Patriots have always seemed to find success with running backs on the “short” end of the stick. (Kevin Faulk, Shane Vereen, Danny Woodhead) And White is no exception. More slot receiver than running back, the Wisconsin product has tallied 159 receptions 1,396 yards and 12 touchdowns the last two years. Proving himself a reliable RB2 for fantasy teams. And his role shouldn’t change much next year… even if Tom Brady’s uniform does. 

10.12 – Julian Edelman (WR, New England Patriots)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

This pick was made before the recent news of Jules tying one on in Beverly Hills and getting arrested for a misdemeanor for jumping on the hood of, and damaging, someone’s car. Now, this is not saying that Edelman’s career will coming crashing down in flames. But, near the end of Wes Welker’s career he started to get into minor trouble too. That being said, as the last pick of this mock draft, I chose to still select the 100 reception 1,000 yard performer in 2019 because as long as TB12 is throwing the rock in New England, I believe he’ll continue to feed his favorite WR. Edelman maybe has 1-3 years left in his career and that’s enough for me to take a chance on drafting my 4th WR that is a great plug-in at Flex in ppr leagues. Plus there’s a lot worse you can do as Mr. Irrelevant in the draft than Julian Edelman.

Dynasty Startup Mock Draft – January 2020 (Part 1)

The Undroppables were recently invited to participate in a Twitter independent analyst mock draft, along with some familiar names. Although it may have been a bit early for a mock draft as the 2019 NFL season is still underway, we wanted to see how much our preseason evaluations of players changed and what type of effect that recency bias might play in a startup scenario. Each selection was accompanied by insight into the roster construction process and the analysts’ draft strategy. For Part 1, we will dive into the first five rounds of the mock draft. In Part 2, we will provide a look at the second half of the mock draft and we will provide our closing thoughts in Part 3.

Format: Dynasty, 12 teams
Rosters
: (1) QB, (2) RB,  (3) WR, (1) TE, (3) R/W/T, (1) Q/R/W/T
Scoring: PPR, TE Prem (1.5)

Participants/Draft Position:

  1. Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports
  2. Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables
  3. JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts
  4. Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables
  5. Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network
  6. Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank
  7. Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network
  8. Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football
  9. Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports
  10. Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables
  11. Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables
  12. D Brown – @DBrownFF88The Undroppables

ROUND 1

1.01 – Christian McCaffrey (RB, Carolina Panthers)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

CMC has proven that he’s a bell cow in a league where the bell cow is becoming increasingly rare. There is no one behind him to steal reps or threaten his snap share. And he has essentially become QB-proof as he’s done it with Cam, Kyle Allen, and Grier the past 2 seasons. CMC is basically this entire offense; it all runs through him. In PPR leagues this year, CMC had under 10 points only 1 time (week 2), and has a floor of 20+ points, with a ceiling of 40+. No one this past year was more consistent than CMC, and more reliable on a weekly basis as his average ppg was just under 29 points (15 weeks).

McCaffrey also showed his versatility as he can do it on the ground (1,361 yards and 14 TDs) and through the air (933 yards and 4 TDs). Alvin Kamara is basically a poor man’s CMC (?). And with next year’s plan of a new HC and new QB, the outlook should be looking up for Christian. Plus, the emergence of DJ Moore and Curtis Samuel has helped to open up lanes for CMC. In any fantasy league format, whether this is 1QB, SF, redraft or dynasty, CMC is the one guy I want on my team no matter what. And with the first pick in the draft, he’s the only one I’m willing to go all-in on for next year and the future without worry or hesitation because at 23 years old he’s just coming into his prime.

1.02 – Lamar Jackson (QB, Baltimore Ravens)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Valuing quarterbacks in dynasty leagues is tricky while it’s fairly standard practice to fade the position in single QB startup leagues. But in Superflex leagues, the position takes on tremendous importance. And in a draft with this much drafting talent, there are only so many places to gain an edge on my competition. I feel like this is one of them.

I chose Jackson over Patrick Mahomes, in part, for his rushing floor. It’s hard to ignore 1,213 yards and 7 touchdowns from your quarterback. Those numbers would have placed him 6th in the league behind Chris Carson… among running backs! That’s an advantage no other QB in the league provides and one that I simply couldn’t ignore. And I didn’t even mention his 36 passing touchdowns, which happened to lead the league.

1.03 – Saquon Barkley (RB, New York Giants)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Saquon Barkley is going to retire as the greatest running back of all time. Is that as valuable as drafting the greatest quarterback of all time, Pat Mahomes? This past season will probably be the low point for the careers of both these young studs after seasons marked by injury, and moving into the 2020 season, they will be locked into everyone’s Top 4.

Every year, there is at least one player who destroys the fantasy landscape and stands head and shoulders above the rest. If you have this player, you’re guaranteed to make the playoffs, and your probability of winning a championship skyrockets. This past season, it was Christian McCaffrey. 2017-2018 it was Todd Gurley. Before that, it was David Johnson. MVP AP. CJ2K. Every year there is one unstoppable Juggernaut. Of all the players in the entire football landscape, professional and college, Saquon Barkley is the one I trust the most over the next decade. Saquon has multiple Juggernaut seasons in him.

I pass on Mahomes to take a 22-year-old running back fresh off of 1400 scrimmage yards. I expect 6 more years of elite play at the one position that can take over a fantasy season.

1.04 – Patrick Mahomes (QB, Kansas City Chiefs)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

Like Terminator mentioned above, when building a Superflex dynasty team, there is no more critical position to gain an edge than at QB. While an elite workhouse RB is generally needed to secure the bag, dynasty teams will not even compete for a playoff spot without consistency from the QB position in SF leagues. Not only is there scarcity at the position as a whole, the drop off in production and consistency is fairly dramatic between QB tiers.

Many expected Mahomes to regress, but (as of Week 16) he posted 3,857 passing yards with 25 TDs and 4 INTs while missing 2 games. If he was healthy all season, 4,000/30 was probably the outcome. Either way, Mahomes put up a solid season considering the injuries that hit the Chiefs as their playmakers (Mahomes, Kelce, Hill, McCoy) all missed games. Entering the 2020 season, Mahomes will be turning only 25 years old and will still be paired with Kelce and Hill.

Young, elite signal-callers who are the faces of the NFL (see Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson) are smash locks at the top of startup SF drafts. My decision became much more comfortable once L-Jax was taken at 1.02, and Mahomes fell to me here. Other than CMC being available at 1.04, either one of these QBs would be a steal, and I am surprised that I was able to take the reigning MVP to start my build.

1.05 – Michael Thomas (WR, New Orleans Saints)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Like many others, in a dynasty startup, I tend to look for low-variance young players in the first two rounds whenever possible, and Michael Thomas is about the best wide receiver there is in both categories. Getting him at 1.05 was shocking, even for a Superflex league, since he is such a stud at the position. Also, when drafting in a startup dynasty league, I generally lean on wide receivers more than running backs since receivers tend to hold their value longer, so I had planned on taking a wide receiver if both Lamar and Patrick were gone, which they were. I was just surprised that CMC and Barkley both went ahead of Thomas, given his high level of production at a valuable position.

I’m not sure what numbers you need to read about Thomas, he’s been a fantasy stud for a few years now, and it doesn’t look like that’s changing anytime soon. There is some concern about Brees retiring, but it doesn’t seem likely for at least the next few years. Therefore, lock Thomas in as a top 3 WR for at least 2-3 years in most leagues, which is easily worth a first-round startup pick.

1.06 – Chris Godwin (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

The basic strategy I employ in dynasty startups is quite simple. Load up on young stud WRs. They are very stable assets, and they tend to be the longest-lasting (except for QB). Chris Godwin is 23 years old and still has his full prime years ahead of him. I’m sure this pick will raise eyebrows for many, but to me, it’s a no brainer.

Normally I would trade the 1.06 to an owner with a zeal for one of those stud RBs (Zeke or Kamara). I would move back, acquire future assets, and still land Godwin in the 2nd. But Godwin was next on my big board, so in an a mock, you just pick your guy.

Godwin has been efficient since day one in the NFL, and this past season, he became even more efficient even in the face of WR1 usage. He posted over 70% catch rate and 11.0 yards per target in 2019. It’s hard for me to envision Godwin not being an elite WR play in fantasy for the next five years or so.

1.07 – Ezekiel Elliott (RB, Dallas Cowboys)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

Of the consensus top-4 who were drafted in 2019, only Ezekiel Elliott and Christian McCaffrey returned top-5 positional value by seasons end. Finding a running back to be the core of your team whose offense does not employ a committee approach is becoming harder and harder. Elliott is a true three-down back. In 2019, he was on the field for 85.7% of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps. Adding more security to Elliott’s value is the Cowboys have already invested highly in him after giving him a six-year, $90-million deal in September. With the amount of
running backs that will be unrestricted free agents in 2020, give me the security for years to come that this 24-year old brings, especially at the 7th overall pick.

As for on-field production, few players rival the consistency that Elliott offers. Aside from 2017, where he served a 6-game suspension, he has never finished with less than 1,350 rushing yards. He is also a weapon in the passing game for Cowboys, averaging 404 receiving yards per season. Elliott scored less than 10 PPR points only once this year (Week 10) but went over 20 points in 7 games. Consistent play week in and week out is what builds championships.

1.08 – DeAndre Hopkins (WR, Houston Texans)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

Hopkins was the pick here over Dalvin Cook and Alvin Kamara. Generally I build with a strong running back core but Wide Receiver longevity was a deciding factor here along with Dalvin Cook’s long injury history and Nuk’s’ stability at quarterback.

Hopkins has been stellar throughout his career, clearing 1100 yards in 5 of his 7 seasons and eclipsing 100 receptions 3 times. While most of his production has been despite subpar quarterback play, stability has arrived in the form of Deshaun Watson. That stability is another reason I was confident in selecting Hopkins at 8th overall. Since Watson entered the league, Hopkins hasn’t gone under 150 targets, 95 catches, or 1100 yards. Consistency like that as my cornerstone WR1? Giddy up!

1.09 – Alvin Kamara (RB, New Orleans Saints)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

This choice really was between AK or Dalvin Cook for me. Dalvin showed how well he could play this year while AK had the worst year of his career. My deciding factor was that even though I’m not a staunch believer in guys being “injury prone,” Cook just hasn’t shown the ability to stay healthy. Kamara suffered through a brutal touchdown regression and played several weeks through a high ankle sprain which visibly zapped the burst he is most known for, and still finished as a top 10 running back.

With all of his negatives this season, he still finished with 4.7ypc and 94 targets. The reason people are so sour on him is the touchdown drop. Now, I’m not saying he can produce 13-18 touchdowns every season, but this season seems like the lowest output he will have for years to come. I really don’t feel the need to do a deep dive stats wise, AK is stud on a great offense, that showed the system can win regardless if Brees is in at QB or not. As long as Sean Peyton stays, solidifying a 24 year old running back in that offense- sign me up!

1.10 – Joe Mixon (RB, Cincinnati Bengals)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

Pick 10 was a no brainer for me. Mixon is a top 5 RB going into 2020. One of the most electric RBs in the NFL, he had 278 carries for 1,137 yds. in 19. This was good for 4.1 YPC and 5 rushing TDs. He also caught 35 passes for 287 yds and 3 more TDs. He put these numbers up on one of the worst offenses in the NFL. Cincy is in a rebuild and they most likely draft Joe Burrow at # 1 overall, which is a huge upgrade to that offense. Rebuilding the line and adding a few playmakers and Cincy has a new offense which will run through Mixon. From weeks 8 through 16 he was seeing 15+ touches a game. Some more involvement in the passing game will only help his production. Workhorse RB1 in ‘20 with potential to finish in the top 5.

1.11 – Dalvin Cook (RB, Minnesota Vikings)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

I always say going in to draft season that “my only plan is to not have a plan”. I want the draft to come to me to make sure I don’t miss value and build the best team that I can. Drafting with these sharks was challenging and when my pick came up I decided, despite the Superflex and TE premium format, that I wanted to come out of the first turn with
a workhorse RB and Elite WR. Despite his injury risk, I chose 24 year old Dalvin Cook. Weeks 1-14 he was the RB2 on a point per game basis. When he is out there, he is winning you games. And he has to finish a full season at some point, right? Right?? I digress.

1.12 – Deshaun Watson (QB, Houston Texans)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Drawing the 1.12 draft slot, I was hungry for a QB with one of my two picks, knowing that many would fly off the board before the 3.12 came back around to me. Luckily, only 2 QBs were previously selected, leaving the top second tier QB, Watson, to me.

In 2017, as a rookie, Watson threw 19 touchdowns in 7 games. Let’s look at the numbers since Week 1 of 2018: 8,017 yds, 52 TD, 21 INT, 100.6 Rating. Averaging 22 fantasy points per game in his short career, there’s no denying he’s one of the bright and upcoming stars in the NFL.

Having a top 3 QB is a major bargaining chip in SuperFlex leagues and I simply could not pass him up. Had Watson gone before this pick I would have passed on drafting a QB with either of my first two picks. In an attempt to protect their star QB, the Texans must continue to address their offensive line woes. Regardless, Watson will perform as QB1 for years to come and is a great foundation block to build my team around.

ROUND 2

2.01 – Nick Chubb (RB, Cleveland Browns)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Chubb sits top 3 in the league for rushing attempts in 2019 with 298. He turned that into 1,494 yards (Highest total for any Browns RB since the great Jim Brown), a respectable 5 yards per carry. PFF gave Chubb a 88.6 grade overall in 2019 (Best among all RBs) making this his 2nd straight year as PFF’s highest-graded RB. Chubb averaged 3.9 yards after contact, per carry, and broke an astonishing 64 tackles. We also saw Chubb receive additional targets in his second year, going from 29 in 2018 to 49 in 2019. These numbers were still achieved despite Kareem Hunt siphoning touches away from the talented second year pro. Chubb added an additional 120 touches from a year ago and seems like a perfect “Bell Cow” back.

The Browns are built to establish the run and have a top 5 Dynasty RB in Nick Chubb. This makes him a great RB1 for my roster, knowing the RB pool will dry up before reaching me again 23 picks later.

2.02 – Davante Adams (WR, Green Bay Packers)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

This worked out pretty well as Adams was my other choice at 1.11. Another player coming off an injury riddled season, but neither of my first two picks would I consider “injury prone.” Adams is Aaron Rodgers’ first read on every passing down and he would have been the WR3 for 2019 had he stayed healthy with his stats projected over a full season. Adams averaged a
whopping 10.58 targets/game to cement his elite WR status and Rodgers still has at least two seasons left in my opinion and Adams is a young 27. My strategy for the first turn worked out well. The reason I wanted one of each RB/WR here is that the next time around, had I failed to get one, there would not be a bell cow back or Elite WR on the board.

2.03 – Tyreek Hill (WR, Kansas City Chiefs)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

Round 2. I usually go RB back to back but my targets were gone so i went with one of the fastest WRs in the game. Tyreek had a crazy offseason but proved again to be a dominant force on the field. 58 rec for 860 yds and 7 TDs averaging 14.8 yds per catch in 12 games. He’s not just a deep threat but has turned into one of the best route runners in the game. With Patty Mahomes at the helm he’s a bet to bounce back in 2020 as a surefire WR1.

2.04 – Russell Wilson (QB, Seattle Seahawks)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I had so many different possibilities with this pick, but honestly I wanted to hedge against a possible QB run. Normally I wouldn’t want to be making a pick with this mindset, but in a dynasty superflex startup, this really is the one position I don’t want to fall too far behind the pack. I have seen what can befall a team when their QB position is not up to par with the rest of the league- it is rarely pretty. By securing a top end quarterback here I felt comfortable I could build the rest of my team and be ok losing out on a position player so early.

Now the pick itself was between Russell Wilson or Kyler Murray. That is something a few months ago I would never have imagined writing. But Murray showed some real ability this year and made me a believer when I was not one going into the season. Kyler’s age and that offense were very compelling to me, but Wilson is still young at 31 and has a proven track record that I couldn’t ignore. All he has done is throw for nearly 4k yards and 30 touchdowns every year, and now with Lockett, Metcalf, and Dissly (some foreshadowing here), Wilson looks to have a solid group of weapons to utilize in evolving this passing game for the next several years.

2.05 – Aaron Jones (RB, Green Bay Packers)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

As a conductor on the Aaron Jones steam engine since 2017, my Co-host Ty (@tnfftyrell) would love this pick! Finishing as the RB2 in PPR formats this season, Aaron Jones’ draft stock will be a hot topic as we move through the offseason. Detractors will point to his almost sure regression from his 19 touchdowns (16 rushing, 3 receiving). They’ll also point to the presence of Jamaal Williams and Green Bay’s willingness to utilize him in passing situations, as evidenced by Williams’ 39 receptions on 45 targets. What they’ll fail to highlight is the fact that Jones soaked up 68 targets of his own in a revamped Green Bay offense. An offense that targeted running backs almost 30% of the time, using backs as their second priority in the passing game and the top priority when Adams went down.

I also considered Josh Jacobs or Kyler Murray in this spot but I went with Jones due to his All-World talent, that passing game efficiency, and his attachment to a potent offense with a veteran signal caller on a contending team. Aaron Rodgers and Co. should have 2 to 4 years of quality production left for fantasy owners and I want a piece of the pie. Another factor was the roster build. I drafted a WR in the first round and the stud running backs were becoming sparse. Jones showed elite traits this season and I’m confident he’ll continue to be featured as a receiving threat and I know he can produce even when sharing carries. I’ve now solidified my top Wideout and running back. The roster building fun is about to begin.

2.06 – Josh Jacobs (RB, Oakland Raiders)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

I will be the first to admit; this is not a pick I saw coming after going RB in the first round. I would have loved for Russell Wilson to fall to me here, but he went two picks before mine, causing me to pivot. My initial reaction was to go with a wide receiver, but after taking a hard look, I had more questions than answers. Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all have their own issues when it comes to quarterback play, and Amari Cooper might not even be in Dallas in a few months. Yes, they all are fantastic players, but at the time of this draft, I have enough reservations to wait for some of the players breaking out this year.

Let’s play a game, shall we?
Player A) 201 carries for 957 yards (4.76 avg) & 7 TDs
Player B) 185 carries for 830 yards (4.48 avg) & 8 TDs

Player A is Josh Jacobs, and Player B was Saquon Barkey in 2018. Both stats are through 11 games played. Are you surprised? I know I was when I first made this comparison back in mid-November. While the receiving numbers aren’t there, the production on the ground was. While missing 3 games with an injury, Jacobs still had 242 rushes for 1150 yards and 7 touchdowns. If you take those rushing yards for a 16 game average, he would have finished with just over 1,400 yards on the season – good enough for 3rd best in 2019. Jacobs came into the NFL with so much tread on his tires after seeing less than 300 total touches during his time at Alabama. At only 21 years old, Jacobs will be Jon Gruden’s workhorse for years to come, and I fully expect for them to work on his pass-catching ability in the offseason.

2.07 – Leonard Fournette (RB, Jacksonville Jaguars)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Getting Fournette as the RB10 in this draft seems like great value. He is a former rookie 1.01 with top 10 NFL draft capital. He had 100 targets this past season and in a PPR format, targets are king. Fournette was 5th in the NFL in carries inside the 20 and inside the 10, yet he only has 3 TDs to show for it.

I make this pick hoping the targets are sticky and the TD regression applies. While my strategy is to load up on young WRs, it certainly doesn’t hurt to find value at the RB position when it shows itself. Fournette is 24 years old, and should remain a bell-cow back for another few years.

2.08 – Dak Prescott (QB, Dallas Cowboys)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

Since I already had my stud WR on the roster, I was targeting a few players with my second-round pick. Unfortunately, they were all taken before me. Both Watson and Wilson, the #3 and #4 QB in my rankings for Superflex, went before my pick, as did other young running backs like Chubb, Jones, Jacobs, and Fournette. Not gonna lie, I was a little on tilt, but decided that I couldn’t wait for my first QB any longer and decided to take Dak Prescott at 2.08.

Dak has been severely underpaid by the Cowboys for years, thanks to a team-friendly rookie deal, but he’s about to get his money. I would be shocked if Dallas lets Dak walk and pays WR Amari Cooper instead. Prescott should see a 3 to 4 year deal with significant money, meaning he will be the franchise quarterback playing behind one of the best offensive lines in all of football, at least for the next 2-3 years. Add in Zeke and defenses won’t be able to key on the passing game as much as they should, leaving Dak open to pick apart secondaries for years to come. Welcome to the squad, Dakota.

2.09 – George Kittle(TE, San Francisco 49ers)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

A pair of mini RB runs cleared the remaining top-end workhorse RBs with @DynoGameTheory taking the last one I’d consider in the 2nd round when he took Fournette. In terms of wide receivers, the pool is deep in this tier so WR was an easy fade for me. That left me with taking another quarterback or looking for a tight end.

In this TE premium league, I found another opportunity to zig while others zagged and took George Kittle. The tight end position has been troublesome for years and although consideration as a “TE1” means little, Kittle comfortably sits at the top by himself with even Kelce a somewhat distant second. Although the 49ers play a run-dominant brand of football, Kittle is San Francisco’s top receiving threat and their passing offense is built around that. The elite TE posted 85 receptions for 1,053 yards and 5 TDs. And although he ended up second to Kelce in total PPR points scored with 222.5, they both averaged the same points per game (15.9) while Kittle missed 2 games. Kittle is also four years younger than Kelce. Starting a Superflex, TE premium dynasty team by filling the 2 most scarce positions with arguably the 2 best players, my foundation is complete.

In hindsight, I could have taken Kyler Murray and been extremely happy with the QB4 in dynasty to round off the quarterback position but shoring up TE while my expert leaguemates scramble in the later rounds for Tyler Higbee as their starting tight end, I’ll be smashing high upside RB and WR plays.

2.10 – Odell Beckham Jr. (WR, Cleveland Browns)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Drafted before the firing of Freddie Kitchens, this was a pick based on hope. Circumstances change, injuries heal, but 27 year old talent does not disappear. Odell Beckham Jr. is the best wide receiver in the game when he is healthy. Although he has dealt with nagging injuries over the last few seasons, the hernia is not a long term concern. Moving forward, I expect the chemistry with Baker to start to click as they both learn to work towards ownership of their team, and I expect Jimmy Haslam to invest in an offensive mind who is able to use all of the other expensive offensive assets.

The WR spot is my focus here and I am happy to grab one of the two elite guys (Mike Evans) left at the position. I hope to see Kyler Murray slide to me on the turn to make it a clean Superflex Big 3.

2.11 – Mike Evans (WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Despite missing the season’s final three games with a severe hamstring pull, Mike Evans managed to surpass 1,000 yards for the sixth consecutive season to open his career. Hall of Famer Randy Moss in the only other wide receiver to accomplish that feat. Evans is on record, via the Tampa Bay Times, stating that he hopes to “stay healthy next year and surpass him” as the first player to go 7-for-7 to start his career.

Quite frankly, Evans shouldn’t have been available here and his availability made this selection a no-brainer.

2.12 – Derrick Henry (RB, Tennessee Titans)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Derrick Henry is the unsexy pick of the first 2 rounds, but drafting the 2019 rushing title holder at 2.12 is too good of a value to pass up, especially if I’m following the same consistent player approach to this draft (and every draft thanks to @BobLung). Henry finished the season as the RB3 in standard formats (hell of a prediction by @FFBallBlast) and RB5 in PPR. Henry hit these numbers by averaging 16 ppg (15 weeks) with 1 game missed to injury and only 2 games below 10 fantasy points. In the 2nd half of the season he turned it on again with a floor of 23 points, repeating his thrashing of Jacksonville in week 12. And while most fantasy leagues are finished by week 16, Henry still turned in an amazing week 17 performance to help the Titans clinch a playoff appearance and the rushing title with 211 yards and 3 TDs.

At 25 years old, Henry is in his prime and has at least 2-3 solid years left, more than enough to warrant a 2.12 pick here. He had a consensus ADP of RB19 in PPR formats coming into 2019, and would be the RB11 in this draft who could once again be a top 8 RB in 2020. Even in PPR formats, Henry has proven he can carry the load and although he may be more of a plodder that comes on hot in the 2nd half of the season, that 2nd half boom is good enough to be a league winner. And when compared to the remaining RBs on the board (Miles, KJ, MG3, and Gurley) he has the highest upside with a good O Line and solid defense.

ROUND 3

3.01 – Travis Kelce (TE, Kansas City Chiefs)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Again, consistency, consistency, consistency. No other TE has been more consistent the past 5 years than Travis Kelce. That’s what I want in my draft. And I want to take top value players at the lowest value I can get them before missing out on drafting them. The TE position has lacked depth in recent years and I’ve always preached to roster as many top 5 players at each position as possible. Kelce has finished his 4th straight year as the top TE in the class with a steady average of 131 targets, 1,182 yards, and 6.75 TDs the past 4 years. While his numbers slightly dipped this year from last year, his usage in the offense did not change as he averaged a 86.87% snap share all year.

Although Kelce is 30, the opportunities for him will continue into 2020 and beyond as the TE position is the slowest to mature and has a relatively long shelf life. Kelce has so much value in fantasy that although he is consistently the TE1, he’s also finishing 2019 as the WR6 in scoring in PPR formats. And although I still don’t have a WR1 on my team, the value was too good here to pass on not only THE best TE in the game but also a consistent top 10 WR with one of the best QBs throwing to him. Oh! And the best part of all is it’s a TE premium scoring league so bonus points to the best pass catching TE in the league.

3.02 – Kyler Murray (QB, Arizona Cardinals)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

I wanted Titans bruiser Derrick Henry in this spot. But when Tommy Mo selected Henry (and his 18 touchdowns) right in front of me, I decided to pivot to a different strategy. Wide receiver wasn’t really an option here because there was too much talent left at the position. And after Henry there is a tier break for me. So that ruled out RB. Back to QB we go. Like Jackson, Cardinals rookie Kyler Murray provides a nice safe rushing floor. He managed 544 yards and 4 touchdowns in his inaugural campaign while throwing the ball a whopping 549 times! A terrible defense should ensure the Cardinals throw plenty once again in 2020. Arizona head coach Kliff Kingsbury is building his “Air-Raid” offense around the dynamic signal caller and the Cardinals front office has surrounded him with young talent. He should continue to improve, even if veteran WR Larry Fitzgerald decides to ride off into the sunset. I now have a decided advantage at arguably the most important position in this league.

3.03 – Carson Wentz (QB, Philadelphia Eagles)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Shoot for the moon and you’ll land among the stars? Carson Wentz is a nice fall back option for a young QB building block after seeing Terminator lock up his QB room with elite assets. After a disappointing season, where his weapons struggled to stay on the field and hold onto the ball, I’m looking for a bounce back from Wentz. The offensive line is built for long term dynasty success (the best youth and talent combination in the league), and I believe they’ll be adding multiple receiving weapons with the most stacked WR draft class since 2014. The stability that the offensive line and aggressive head coach provide gives me enough reason to invest in Wentz as my dynasty QB1. I’m happy to have a guy who will be around for the next 10 years.

3.04 – JuJu Smith-Schuster (WR, Pittsburgh Steelers)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

I waited for wide receiver until round 3 and it paid off as JuJu was still on the board after the turn. Even after a down season, I have JJSS as the WR6 in dynasty with Big Ben returning for at least a season or two. JuJu only finished with 552 receiving yards this year but before Roethlisberger was lost, Smith-Schuster started off the season on a good note with 6-78 and 5-84 showings. And while the production wasn’t there, neither were the targets or the talent at quarterback.

Nor Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges are the long-term solutions after Roethlisberger so we can only hope that Big Ben plays strong for the next couple of seasons while the Steelers retool the next franchise QB. Regardless, these are the times to lock in premium young studs who will only be 23 years old when the 2020 season starts at a discount: during times of uncertainty with the QB situation and when a stud is coming off a disappointing season. It’s easy to forget that it was only last offseason when JuJu had the same hype and backing as an elite WR as Chris Godwin enjoys today. Sure JuJu’s trade value is low but I didn’t draft him to trade him. I love him as a cornerstone WR on any dynasty team.

3.05 – Evan Engram (TE, New York Giants)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

As the draft snaked back around, I was definitely eyeing my first RB but realized that only one went in this next turn: Derrick Henry. I can probably wait, right? This is a TE premium league, and both Kittle and Kelce went between my picks, which sort of forced my hand. I started WR-QB and wouldn’t mind having a nice balanced start to the team, so I went with Evan Engram as my TE1.

Engram is being undervalued at the moment, mainly because of his injury. At the start of the 2019 season, there were doubts about his quarterback in Daniel Jones, but he’s come on strong and seems to have no issue throwing the rock. Engram is a stud at a position where studs are even harder to find, making him the obvious choice for a dynasty startup behind Kittle and Kelce. Now he just needs to stay healthy…

3.06 – Amari Cooper (WR, Dallas Cowboys)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Amari is a top 5 or 6 Dynasty WR for me, so getting him at WR9 feels like value. Either way he fits the plan: Draft a stable of young WRs that can grow together and hopefully reach their prime together over the next several seasons.

Amari is still only 25 years old and has yet to reach his full potential. Admittedly, he scares me a little, but there is simply too much talent and opportunity to pass up in RD 3.

I strongly considered Miles Sanders or DJ Moore here. Sanders would definitely be a target of mine in the 3rd round if I were to be doing a startup this offseason. After I took Fournette in the 2nd, it made me shy away from him at 3.06, as I thought he might sneak by. But not with this crew. You’ll need to nab Sanders in round 3 if you want to get him.

3.07 – Josh Allen (QB, Buffalo Bills)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

2019 was just another example that you want to draft a quarterback with a rushing upside to help boost their floors. While not as elusive as QBs who went before him, such as Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, or Kyler Murray, Josh Allen still finished 3rd in the NFL amongst QBs in rushing yards along with 9 touchdowns. Inside the 10-yard line, Allen’s size and athleticism strike a scary resemblance to what we saw in Cam Newton in his prime.

Although he can at times struggle with accuracy, Allen completed nearly 60% of his passes and showed some welcomed development in his decision making compared to his 2018 rookie campaign. I fully expect him to take another step in the right direction and hope the Bills add some talent to the WR position, maybe even in the upcoming draft. In a SuperFlex format, it is imperative to get your starting quarterbacks when you can, as you never know when the run will hit. Given the group of drafters assembled for this mock, this was a pick I could not afford to pass on.

3.08 – Aaron Rodgers (QB, Green Bay Packers)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

As I mentioned when I went over my second round pick, I thought I could still get quarterback value by waiting until the third round, and I think it paid off. Aaron Rodgers may not be the top 5 lock he once was, he still finished this season 12th with over 4000 yards, with 26 touchdowns and only threw 4 interceptions. Rodgers was also top 5 in red zone pass attempts, and deep ball attempts, so there are scoring opportunities to be had.

With Davante Adams and Aaron Jones providing the only reliable juice, the Packers are likely to re-tool the offense this offseason. With added weapons and a healthy season from Adams, Aaron Rodgers can still get it done as a fantasy QB1.

3.09 – Baker Mayfield (QB, Cleveland Browns)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

There was a slight run on guys I was hoping would come back to me (looking at you Tommy Garrett), but this pick piggybacks a lot off my previous one. The entire Browns team had a down year, but it is also something that if you listened to some sharp follows on Twitter, a few guys were predicting it. Super teams and Free Agency champions rarely ever produce the way the offseason hype machine pumps them up.

I don’t think 2019 is the true Baker Mayfield, Sophomore slumps happen, and I think people are way too keen to just throw the baby out with the bathwater after one bad season. He is still only 24 years old, his career is not now set in stone. I have a feeling the 2020 Browns and beyond will be much better versions of themselves than 2019. A slice of humble pie and not buying into their hype as much as they did will go a long way (and some offensive linemen).

I also am benefiting that only a few minutes before I was up for my pick the Browns canned Freddie Kitchens, who by all accounts, was very much not getting the job done. Even to the point apparently Kitchens was calling plays that were not being put into action by Monken during the week leading up to the game. The Browns have already been linked to a few hot coaching prospects, and are surely one of the most attractive landing spots with all of the skill players they have. I have the Browns as all strong bounce-back candidates in 2020, and this time last year I would not have gotten Baker this late. I will take advantage of the down year and bank on a big improvement for years to come.

3.10 – D.J. Moore (WR, Carolina Panthers
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

D.J. Moore was my 3rd round pick and in a Dynasty and I was stoked to see him here at this spot. As a rookie in 18 he looked like a difference-maker and in 19 he did not disappoint. He finished 19 with 87 rec for 1175 yds and 4 TDs on 135 targets. 135 targets. That’s a big number. On top of it the targets where coming from a Rookie QB. He’s phenomenal after the catch and is a threat to take it to the house on any given play. At 22 years old this kid is going to be a top WR in the league in no time. Big target in Dynasty.

3.11- Julio Jones (WR, Atlanta Falcons)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

There was a decent run on QBs since I picked last (fine by me) and no one really jumping off the page as a “must draft” at that position. Same for TEs, although I considered Zack Ertz
here as I do like having an Elite TE in a premium scoring format. But I have Julio Jones staring me in the face and if you follow me on Twitter, you know I am a huge fan. He is 30, but we have seen Elite WRs continue to produce into their early 30s. I watch every Falcons game and I saw no dip in performance on the field whatsoever. In fact, his 99/1394/6 2019 campaign was better than 2016 and 2017! Julio only missed one game this year which now makes only 4 missed games In the last 6 years for a guy that still sometimes gets labeled as an injury risk, which stems way back from the early part of his career. He was the WR3 this year so I now have the potential of having 2 top 5 WRs. At the end of the 3rd round, this is a steal!

3.12 – Kenny Golladay (WR, Detroit Lions)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

In 2019, Golladay was primed for a big year as Matthew Stafford’s WR1. Unfortunately, Stafford season ended at the halfway point. However, 2nd and 3rd string QBs wouldn’t be enough to detour Golladay from being the WR9 in PPR (WR3 Standard).

Finishing the season with 65 receptions, 1,190 yards (2nd straight 1,000+ yard season) at 18.0 yards per catch (3rd in NFL) and 11 TDs (Lead NFL), ahead of the likes of OBJ, Hopkins, and Cooper. In 2019, Detroit ranked 10th in passing yards per game (243.8), Golladay led the NFL in deep targets (37).

With Marvin Jones Jr aging and having more health issues, and rookie TE Hockenson not having the impact most expected. We could see Golladay’s target share jump up towards 25% in 2020. With a healthy Stafford, Golladay is a lock for Top 12 production for years. I feel confident having him as my WR1 at the end of the 3rd round.

ROUND 4

4.01 – Matt Ryan (QB, Atlanta Falcons)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

Ryan has been a Top 10 (Avg) quarterback through his 11 years as a pro, throwing 20+ TDs every single year, and now 9 seasons straight of 4,000+ yards. He is a model of health, having gone 9 seasons straight with 16 starts until missing week 8 of 2019.

Atlanta has an elite passing game in addition to one of the NFL’s best pass-catching cores. (Julio, Ridley, Hooper) In 2019, Ryan ranks 3rd in pass attempts (616). Passing volume is plentiful in Atlanta and Ryan should have a minimum of 3 more years with the Falcons.

I negated the stress of a QB run by locking up my QB2 on this turn. After selecting Ryan, 7 additional QBs went off the board before my next pick. Having two top 10 QBs rostered in a SuperFlex league can be a great advantage, now allowing me to also focus on hammering flex position players.

Shout out to Paulie for sniping me heading into the turn. I was hoping to lock up the Julio/Ryan stack, but not disappointed that Golladay fell to me.

4.02 – Courtland Sutton (WR, Denver Broncos)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

Still not worried about QB or TE, I wanted to go with a youthful WR here or Miles Sanders, who was picked next by Beezy. AJ Brown, DJ Moore, and Courtland Sutton were all considered here and ultimately chose Sutton due to that defense being old and in desperate need of a hard reset. If you are struggling to figure out why I would target a WR on a declining defense and why it would matter, DM me on Twitter, we need to discuss a few things. Suttons’ targets were consistent and averaged out to almost 8 per game. He is only 24 and if we see a “3rd year leap” next season coming off of his 72/1112/6 2019, I could have the most lethal WR core in this league.

4.03 – Miles Sanders (RB, Philadelphia Eagles)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

So here i’m going to eat my words a little. Miles Sanders in the 4th was a big value. I was higher on Montgomery coming out but hard to argue with the season Sanders just put together. As part of a committee, he finished the year on a strong note once Howard went down and he got the lion’s share of the carries. Finishing the year with 179 attempts for 818 yds and 3 TDs. He added 50 rec on 63 targets for 509 yds and 3 more Tds. He showed he was capable of handling a 3 down role in the offense. I have a lot of confidence in him as my RB2 and the hope is he takes a step forward in 2020 to finish in the top 10 range.

4.04 – Cooper Kupp (WR, Los Angeles Rams)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

This was a no-brainer pick for me. The 2019 WR4 overall just fell into my lap in the 4th round, it would’ve been crazy not to take him. To be honest, Kupp burned me this year in all of my redraft leagues because I passed him up many times because I wasn’t trusting of coming back from an ACL tear as quickly as he did. Man, I was wrong- the dude crushed it! Did I mention he was the WR4 overall- after coming back in a matter of several months off an ACL tear!? To continue this rant- he was the WR4 in 2018 through week 5 last season before getting hurt. When he is on the field McVay loves to scheme him open, and Goff loves to throw to him. Prorate his 2018 season he puts up 80 receptions, 1,132 yards, and 12 touchdowns on 110 targets. Fast forward several months after an ACL tear and all he did was 94 receptions for 1,161 yards and touchdowns on 134 targets.

The Rams offense as a whole wasn’t the same this year as last, but it didn’t take down Kupp. Besides a three week series of just awful matchups (Pit/Chi/Bal), Kupp was a steady plug and play WR stud. Going back to the injury part, every athlete says they don’t feel the same after an ACL tear until a year after the surgery. Kupp is still young at only 26, and by all accounts, should feel even better next year. To me this is an early steal of the draft, Kupp should be a WR1 for years to come in that offense, and people just seem to be forgetting about him. I was able to nab him as the 14th wide receiver off the board, and I am very pleased about that.

4.05 – Kerryon Johnson (RB, Detroit Lions)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Football)

This is a pick where I took a shot on a player I believe in. At only 22 years of age, Kerryon Johnson still has plenty of time for his career to blossom as an efficient playmaker, and the focal point of the Lions’ backfield. Johnson will be stepping back into an offense with a plethora of skill position weapons in Marvin Jones, Kenny Golladay and TJ Hockenson, He’ll also have Matt Stafford returning from injury ready to right the ship. As far as opportunity, Kerryon’s upside comes in his potential involvement in the passing game. Combined, JD McKissic and Ty Johnson soaked up 73 targets this season for the Lions, that’s the same amount as Saquon Barkley had seeing the 8th most running back targets on the season. If Kerryon can hog those targets, and I think he will provided he’s healthy, his floor becomes much safer.

Kerryon is someone I could see having an ascension similar to what Aaron Jones has experienced in Green Bay. The talent is there to monopolize the passing game work. Couple that with a floor of 12-15 carries per game and this could be a great price on a potential foundation piece for my team’s RB core.

4.06 – A.J. Brown (WR, Tennessee Titans)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

I’ll be honest; I was extremely nervous I was going to miss out on this pick. After the Allen selection in round 3, all I wanted was for one of Courtland Sutton, D.J. Moore, or Brown to fall to me. Once Moore and Sutton were selected, I thought my gamble wasn’t going to pay off. When my pick came up, and Brown was on the board still, I could not hit the draft button any quicker. To land someone with the talent of Brown in the 4th round is a steal in my book, especially after going RB/RB/QB to start my team.

Once the Titans made the switch from Marcus Mariota to Ryan Tannehill in Week 7, Brown went ballistic once chemistry developed. From Week 12 through Week 17, Brown averaged 21.28 PPR points per game and went over 100-yards receiving four times during that stretch. He ended the season with 52 catches for 1,051 receiving yards and 8 touchdowns. Good enough for WR21 in PPR scoring & 9 in standard formats. We aren’t waiting for a “second-year breakout” from Brown, he has already arrived and put both the NFL and the fantasy community on notice.

4.07 – D.J. Chark (WR, Jacksonville Jaguars)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

Sometimes you just get sniped!!! I was 100% taking A.J. Brown. So, I can tell you now, Brown is definitely a top 15 dynasty wide receiver.

I didn’t love a ton of my options here. It feels like a bit of a tier break from the elite players. But with D.J. Chark I am getting yet another young Alpha WR. At just 23 years old, his breakout is legit. He had below-average quarterback play all season, yet he still produced. He was a top 15 wide receiver in 2019 (avg PPG) and he should only get better.

4.08 – Melvin Gordon (RB, Los Angeles Chargers)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

After taking Engram, and still needing a top RB, I was really hoping that at least one of Kerryon or Sanders would fall back to me at 4.08, and again, I was sniped. It seems to be a running theme in this draft of sharks. Go figure. So, I was now debating between Gordon, Conner, Gurley, and Bell with this pick, and I ultimately went with Gordon. Conner is too injury-prone for me, and Gurley and Bell are past their primes already. Gordon, on the other hand, could be in for a resurgence in 2020.

Gordon held out of the start of the 2019 season due to a contract dispute. This means he was able to rest his legs a little longer and came into the season looking strong. He’s only 26 and should land somewhere this off-season that could very easily increase his value, but it could also deflate it. If he lands somewhere like Arizona or Miami, where he’s the definitive starter, then he could be in for massive output. But if he lands somewhere like San Francisco or New England, his upside could be capped. It’s a risky pick, but in the 4th round, all of the options have some risk to them. Gordon just felt like he had the least.

4.09 – Stefon Diggs (WR, Minnesota Vikings)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

This pick, to be quite honest, did not afford many options that jumped off the page so I decided to stay on-brand as my other favorites in this range (Sanders, Brown and Kerryon) were all taken right before. I’ve been a huge fan of Diggs’ route running and playmaking ability and he is a fun player to have on your team so I am proud owner in many leagues. The obvious downside, however, is that while he is uber-talented with that swag you just love to see from your fantasy players (See JuJu Smith-Schuster), Diggs is stuck on a terrible passing offense and tied to an average quarterback in Kirk Cousins.

However, even in an up and down season, Diggs continued to show his upside in several weeks and ultimately finished as the WR24 in PPR, averaging 14.1 points per game. Diggs posted over 1,100 receiving yards and although he only had 63 receptions his 17.9 yards per catch ranked 4th among WRs. I decided to solidify my young core of Mahomes-Kittle-Juju-Diggs to start and I’m feeling good with the hope that I can grab two high upside RBs in the next two rounds. Plus, all four of these guys have that intangible #brand factor. I build teams to win but I also want players I love.

4.10 – James Conner (RB, Pittsburgh Steelers)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

This decision comes down to Keenan Allen, Allen Robinson, and James Conner. With both QB situations in question for the talented wideouts, I chose to roll the dice on the health of a 24 year old RB1. One season removed from being a top 6 running back in PPG, I believe James Conner has earned the respect of the Steelers organization. A lot of speculation occurred surrounding the replaceability of Le’Veon Bell, but James Conner stepped in seamlessly. It was not the same case for Conner’s replacements, who managed inconsistent performances marked with injury and obvious talent discrepancy. They may have liked Jaylen as a change of pace option, and hoped Benny could provide depth as a bruiser, but neither could muster the consistency and reliability of Conner. If Pittsburgh decides to draft a guy, I expect it to be a later round investment as they work to rebuild their resources elsewhere and find their quarterback of the future. Whether that QB is Roethlisberger or not, the run game will be always be featured as the Steelers reclaim their identity as the defensive powerhouse of the AFC.

4.11 – Keenan Allen (WR, Los Angeles Chargers)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Another talented pass catcher that I didn’t expect to be staring at when I was on the clock. There were actually three names I considered here, which is one advantage of being one from either end of the snake. You can pretty much peg your competitors’ position group, but more on that later. By all accounts, Keenan Allen had a “down” year. Yet he closed 2019 with seven consecutive games of five or more receptions. His final stat line 104/1199/6 was good enough for WR6. At 27 years old Keenan Allen is entering the prime of his career and there is plenty left in his tank. Even if Philip Rivers spends his 2020 at daycare. I’ve now paired two top 10 wide receivers with my two young quarterbacks. A solid foundation for any Superflex dynasty team.

4.12 – Allen Robinson (WR, Chicago Bears)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

After starting the draft RB/RB/TE I either needed to grab a QB since it’s Superflex or go for the best value and start to build my WR corps. I opted to focus on WR and could not pass up Allen Robinson sitting there at the end of the 4th round. Robinson is another unsexy pick IMO as he was one of the unsung heroes of 2019, and as my dude @FantasyFBstoner puts it, the most disrespected WR in the game. ARob was the 8th scoring WR in PPR formats, despite having Trubisky as his QB. He scored under 10 points only 3 times this season, and returned to similar numbers as his top 10 WR campaign in 2015.

At 26 years old, Robinson is on the verge of hitting the 2nd stage in his career, and by NFL-perspective is no longer a spring chicken. However, even as the solidified WR1 on the Bears, the firing of OC Mark Helfrich and a recommitment to Mitch Trubisky, leave Robinson’s 2020 outlook with some uncertainty. But at this point in a 12-man draft, all other WR1s were already drafted and I was pleasantly surprised by what ARob did this year. With a 2019 ADP of WR29 and 70 overall, I’m still confident in ARob outperforming his ADP again in 2020 at WR19 and 48 overall in this mock draft.

ROUND 5

5.01 – Tyler Lockett (WR, Seattle Seahawks)
(Tommy Mo – @2on1FFB2on1: Fantasy Sports)

Tyler Lockett was a WR1 lock for the entire #2on1Crew coming into 2019, as all of us were super high on Tyler. While Lockett wasn’t a disappointment as he improved on his 2018 numbers, he just barely missed WR1 territory at WR13 in PPR formats due to inconsistent games (5 out of 15 games under 10 points), the emergence of DK Metcalf, and a fluke injury (missed week 13). Even with DK performing like the freak athlete his workout pictures showed, Lockett still had plenty of big games to win weeks and prove he’s still a major factor in this offense.

At 27 years old, he’s also not a young buck anymore, but like ARob, I feel they both have at least 2-3 solid years of high-level production left in their tanks. Which for me, is all I’m really looking for in dynasty as I’m in a constant “win-now” mode only looking a few years down the road. I also feel there’s always time in the distant future to blow up a team and rebuild. I’m projecting another 1,000+ yard season for Lockett, barring injury, given his 90% weekly average snap share and continued usage as the team’s WR1.

5.02 – Calvin Ridley (WR, Atlanta Falcons)
(Randal K – @FF_TerminatorThe Undroppables)

Calvin Ridley closed his sophomore season with the same workmanlike stat line he managed as a rookie… In three less games! I don’t think it’s any coincidence that 27% of Julio Jones’ production came in the final three weeks of 2019. When Ridley was sidelined with an abdominal injury. The offseason should allow him to heal nicely and reclaim his spot in one of the games most prolific passing offenses. We may be witnessing a changing of the guard here and even if Julio manages to stave off father time for a couple more seasons, a bad defense and shaky running game ensure there are plenty of balls to go around.

5.03 – Mark Andrews (TE, Baltimore Ravens)
(JetPack Galileo – @JetPackGalileoFantasy Football Astronauts)

Lamar Jackson is straight fire and Greg Roman knows how to deploy the tight end. Mark Andrews was a touchdown stud this season and a fantasy anomaly with a crazy high amount of points per snap. While regression is possible in 2020, I am concerned here with only one number: 23 – The age of both our Pro Bowl heroes, Lamar Jackson and Mark Andrews. Like quarterback, tight end is a position where I’m happy to settle with a top-end option that I can plug and forget. Andrews owners will be able to do just that with the youngest QB-TE pairing in the league.

5.04 – Jimmy Garoppolo (QB, San Francisco 49ers)
(Chalk – @101chalkThe Undroppables)

In Superflex startup drafts, I rarely leave the 5th (or 6th) round without having two QBs as a foundation. Depending on what position you are drafting from, a single QB run can cripple an unprepared fantasy owner’s team construction. In fact, I may or may not have started such a run myself with my selection of Gucci here. As I started with Mahomes at the top of the draft, I looked for a safe QB2 with a decent floor and stable situation.

The 49ers may be a run-dominant team but Kittle and Deebo are playmakers with the ball in their hands, capable of taking any reception to the house. Garoppolo threw for nearly 4,000 yards (3,978) with 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions on a team that plays good defense and runs the ball with 3 running backs. Although those are not eye dropping numbers, they’re solid and were good for a QB14 finish. That also seems like a nice floor for my QB2. I debated going with a younger (and more promising) QB in Jones or Darnold as I actually have them slightly higher in my dynasty rankings, but I wanted to lean a little more “win-now” with a player in a more stable situation.

5.05 – Daniel Jones (QB, New York Giants)
(Andrew Hall – @AndrewHallFFPro Football Network)

At this stage of the draft, having my first position player at each starting position, I decided to go back to quarterback since it’s a Superflex league and QBs will most likely be taken more often between this pick and my next, and there aren’t that many left that I’d like to start on a weekly basis. There are a few veteran options available but I really want to build this team for the long haul, and seriously consider Daniel Jones to be one of those pieces that is in my lineup for years, so he’s my pick at 5.05.

I know what you’re thinking, this is a little early and probably a reach, but I honestly think he’s got the skills and surrounding cast to grow in value in 2020 and beyond. Add to that the stack with my 3rd round pick in Evan Engram and it was a no brainer for me. There were others I considered, but I wanted to focus on QBs earlier than other positions given how hard good ones are to find. Welcome to the team, Mr. Jones!

5.06 – Sam Darnold (QB, New York Jets)
(Scott – @DynoGameTheoryCreate-A-Rank)

In a Superflex Dynasty startup, you can certainly still choose to wait on Quarterback, but don’t try and get too cute. When the value shows itself, jump in it. Darnold is my QB8 in dynasty and I land him here as QB14. I like that a lot.

Picking in the middle of the pack is an advantage because the runs on various positions don’t get too far out of reach. I just didn’t want to push my luck too much.

I also considered drafting Todd Gurley here. I don’t think he will make it back to me, but I just wasn’t too sure about his future role.

There is a slew of nice WRs that I have in a similar tier, so I’m sure one of them will be there for me on the comeback.

5.07 – Jared Goff (QB, Los Angeles Rams)
(Tommy Garrett – @TommyGarrettPFNPro Football Network)

Knowing how to read a draft lobby and see when a run will start is a crucial skill and can make your pick for you before it even gets to you turn. That’s what happened here as I knew the QB run was about to hit. Three QBs went before me that were all in the range of guys I wanted. Behind me, 3 of the five teams only had one or none quarterbacks on their roster. My pick became easy at this point. Take who was left of that tier and move on. That ended up being Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams.

At QB15 off the board, I’m perfectly happy with this pick. I don’t need a stud quarterback for my Superflex spot. I need a reliable QB who has talent around him with upside. That is precisely what Goff gives me. Goff finished the year as QB13 on the season even though he tied for 1st in attempts (626) and was 3rd in passing yards (4,638). What kept him from being another top-10 finish was the reduction in touchdowns from 2018, throwing 22 last year. Some of the most talented players in the NFL surround Goff, and he is on offense that ran the 8th most passing plays in 2019 (62%). He is locked up on the Rams through 2024, and I expect to see solid QB2 production the entire way.

5.08 – Jameis Winston (QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
(Travis Seel – @TSeel14True North Fantasy Footballl)

Generally, if you’d ask me whether I wanted a 26 year old Quarterback who just threw more than 30 touchdowns and had the 8th best passing yardage season of all time, I’d say sign me up. When you tell me that quarterback is Jameis Winston…hesitations arise. Along with those 30+ touchdowns, Jameis is the inaugural member of the 30 and 30 club. He’s the first QB of all time to throw for at least 30 touchdowns and 30 interceptions. A dubious distinction.

With that said, I think Jameis, the QB5 in fantasy this season, will be going back to the Buccaneers in 2020. Despite the interceptions, Winston fits well in Bruce Arians’ scheme. He can and will (clearly) throw the ball all over the yard, and we saw that lead to fantasy success. From a dynasty lens, at best, Winston sticks with the Bucs, continuing to produce in a high octane passing offense. At worst, Jameis will still be fantasy relevant as a shorter-term, potential journeyman in the mold of Ryan Fitzpatrick. YOLO quarterback play is in his blood, and I’m here for it.

5.09 – Kirk Cousins (QB, Minnesota Vikings)
(Dan – @AWLSabermetrics2on1: Fantasy Sports)

I was the first person to take the dive into three quarterbacks, hell some teams don’t even have one yet! This was a pick that I didn’t NEED to make, but it was something I’ve been wrestling with dynasty Superflex startups after getting in a few over the summer. Having a strong third quarterback option was something that showed to be very important to the best teams. Whether it be to protect yourself with injuries, or if another team needs a viable starter, having three very startable quarterbacks allows me to feel safe in my team. Now, I am not a proponent of starting your draft with 4,5,6… straight QB picks, I don’t think that is a successful strategy, three in the first five rounds even is a bit much for me. But, being able to completely solidify my QB room before any other team makes me feel good with the most important position in SuperFlex leagues. Also, this is fantasy, I don’t care about prime times wins and losses, I’ve had people argue with me over Cousins because he can’t win big games, but until fantasy starts giving points to primetime wins, I couldn’t care less about his W/L record. As long as he puts up points and is a viable fantasy QB, I will continue to draft when he makes it around to me.

Kirk Cousins was also someone for me who was at a tier-break over the next options. He is still relatively young at 31 years old and no real health concerns, is a set-in starter and just had his worst career fantasy finish as a starter at QB18 overall, prior to that he has always been a QB1. If the Vikings started the season actually passing the ball, I’d be willing to bet he could have made up the 21 total points separating him and the QB12 overall. I suspect the offensive play calling to be more balanced/ look more like weeks five and on, rather than the early season of 2019. He finished last season with 425 completions, this season he only had 444 attempts! This was a down year for him fantasy-wise, and I expect a return to his previous QB1 ways starting next year.

5.10 – Matthew Stafford (QB, Detroit Lions)
(Jake – @DaBeezyBFFThe Undroppables)

I went after the value at RB and Wr early in the draft but now I had too get a QB. Matthew Stafford was the guy. He only played in 8 games this year but he looked good in those 8 games. Detroit is trying to find an identity and as much as they want to be a ground and pound team it’s not how they win games. With Kj, Golladay, Jones, Hockenson all coming back Stafford is going to have to put the ball in the air for them too keep pace in the games. I’m looking for them to add a few playmakers this offseason as well putting Stafford value on the rise.

5.11 – Todd Gurley (RB, Los Angeles Rams)
(Paul Lundgaard – @PauliesSleepersThe Undroppables)

Here is where I usually start looking for QBs in a Superflex format. This past season, I drafted guys like Lamar Jackson, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Josh Allen in this area. Well, there was a 7 QB run prior to my pick and all of the QBs I would consider in that “tier” are now gone. Once again, no worries. I won championships this year with the Jackson/Allen combo as well as with a Cousins/Fitzpatrick combo. Anyway, I couldn’t pass on Todd Gurley with this pick as my RB2. At only 25 years old, Gurley should still have several more productive seasons. I believe his 2019 decline was more due to awful offensive line play and a shift in schemes midseason more than it had to do with the arthritis issue. He still had 12 TDs and will continue to be the go-to guy in goal to go situations. Myself and many other analysts believe this offense will bounce back in 2020. It has too much youth and talent not to.

5.12 – Michael Gallup (WR, Dallas Cowboys)
(D Brown – @DBrownFF88 – Sons of Dynasty, The Undroppables)

In 2019, Gallup had the breakout many were hoping for by eclipsing 1,000 yards with an impressive 16.8 yards per catch(10th). He more than doubled his 2018 production as we continued to see Amari Cooper perform with weekly inconsistency. The Cowboys will have to decide if they want to sign Cooper long term. In my opinion, the Cowboys should tag him in a “prove it” year. If the Cowboys decide to move on, Gallup becomes the WR1 in Dallas.

The creativity that Kellen Moore brought to Dallas as OC is evident when looking at the numbers. The Cowboys set a franchise record for most yards (6,904) and most passing yards (4,751) in a season. We have seen Dak’s pass attempts go up every year since entering the league and should be good for 600+ attempts in 2020. Gallup is 23 years old and a top 20 Dynasty WR with room to grow.

Medical Myths | Mobile Quarterbacks

Welcome to The Undroppables! Let’s dive right in. The idea that many individuals online believe so strongly that mobile quarterbacks are “injury-prone” is uninformed. My goal today is to show that, from my perspective as a fantasy player and an NFL fan, there are benefits of a mobile quarterback. I also want to help shed some light on the true meaning of “injury-prone”. Enter NFL Myths | Mobile Quarterbacks

Author’s Note: When I started writing this article, the NFL Wildcard round had not yet been played and Carson Wentz had not yet suffered a concussion. So, when people started labeling him injury prone, I admittedly got a little spicy as evidenced by the tweet below. However, as you will see, my reasoning is backed by science and data, which is the name of the game in fantasy football.

Myth 1: “Big hits are the primary cause of quarterback injuries.”

First myth on NFL Myths | Mobile Quarterbacks is the most common. I would venture to say the people with this argument always make the assumption that big hits from defenders are the reason for mobile quarterback injuries and shortened careers. There are several holes in that argument starting with the fact that 300 lb. mammoths sack non-mobile quarterbacks all the time, nevertheless, we’ll ignore that for now. Here’s some data to suggest that this narrative is simply incorrect.

This study, which is hot off the press, tracked every NFL orthopedic injury from 1980 to 2018 which is a massive sample size (meaning the data is highly reliable). What the study found was that the most common orthopedic injuries were to the knee at 24%. Hamstring strains and mild contusions (AKA bruises) were the second and third most common injuries respectively. What’s more interesting is that a whopping 82% of hamstring injuries and 72% of ACL tears (knee injuries) were non-contact in nature. From a clinical perspective, this means that those same players were just as likely to tear their ACL in the pocket or by slipping on their stairs at home. It’s highly likely they were already predisposed biomechanically speaking.

Zooming out even further, this study found that from 2010-2013 only 2.5% of quarterbacks tore their ACL. This is only four players out of a pool of 162. Even though the statistical analysis did not confirm this as a “validated number”, the chances of a quarterback tearing his ACL (contact or non-contact) is unlikely.

The only weakness of these studies is that concussions, arguably the highest risk injury, were not included. Luckily for us, this study did include concussions and after analyzing 459 concussions, concluded that corners, receivers, linebackers, and offensive lineman (in that order) are at the highest risk for concussions. Quarterbacks were not mentioned in the study.

Myth 2: “Rushing puts them at greater risk than staying in the pocket. Look at [insert QB with rushing ability].”

Don’t like numbers and science? Still think “establishing the run” and “the eye test” wins in today’s NFL? Still hunt and kill all of your wild game with a spear? Then let’s go this direction instead. Below is a list of commonly cited rushing quarterbacks used as cautionary tales to avoid rushing QBs altogether. In sum, they averaged around 700 rushing attempts in their career. Next to their name I have conveniently listed their most significant documented injury, how it happened and where it occurred on the field.

Robert Griffin III: Non-contact ACL, recovering a fumble 10 yards behind line of scrimmage.

Cam Newton: Rotator cuff tear, fell on outstretched hand while attempting a tackle after an interception. If you remember, this is the injury that lingered for two year. His recent foot injury came on a play where he was simply evading a sack.

Randall Cunningham: (Presumably) Contact ACL, in the pocket.

Steve Young: Final concussion of career, in the pocket

The only significant injury that I could find for these players that occurred during the act of running is a rib fracture for Donovan McNabb. I could go on and on listing Michael Vick, Kordell Stewart, Steve McNair etc. The bottom line is that the theme for running quarterbacks is, well, that it pays off. There are no correlations here with running and greater risk of injuries. The weakness behind this group of players is that I haven’t looked at their non-mobile counterparts because I don’t need to given the next myth.

Myth 3: “The careers of quarterbacks who run are shorter.”

Since I’m short on time, I’ll just leave this last tweet below and say that if my franchise quarterback can play for 10-13 seasons, I’m happy.

NFL Myths | Mobile Quarterbacks TLDR:

  1. 74% of ACL tears are non-contact and only 2.5% of quarterbacks tear their ACL at all. 82% of hamstring strains are also non-contact.
  2. Almost every commonly cited rushing quarterback used as an example to avoid running had their most significant injury happen in the pocket or on a fluke play
  3. The quarterbacks who ran the most in NFL history played an average of 13 NFL seasons.
  4. Injuries cannot be predicted and any player can be hurt at any given time, but patterns and statistics can give us a good picture of general risk.
  5. As far as the research and naked eye observation goes, rushing quarterbacks being more prone to injuries is unfounded. At the very least, I’m simply saying we don’t know, so if you still believe that, the burden of evidence is on you (no not you, the other you, the “establish the run” guy).

Now, back to Carson Wentz. His most significant injuries so far have been an absolutely brutal sandwich hit that tore his ACL, an “overuse” injury-causing vertebral fracture and a concussion just last week on a dirty and unnecessary hit to the back of his head. These were unfortunate events that caused Wentz to suffer injuries but does not show that he is anymore injury-prone than another player.

The bottom line with mobile quarterbacks is don’t avoid them in your fantasy drafts this summer. Thanks for reading Medical Myths | Mobile Quarterbacks.

Fallout in Foxborough?

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Tom Brady seems like someone who has done it all in his 20 year Hall of Fame career. But he will soon embark on uncharted waters. For the first time, Brady will officially become a free agent when the new league year begins in March.

Following Saturday’s shocking loss to the AFC’s 6th seed Tennessee Titans, Brady stated that it was “pretty unlikely” that he would retire this offseason. Franchise patriarchs Bill Belichick and Robert Kraft also weighed in. With Belichick saying that Saturday wasn’t the time to address the future and Kraft stating before the season that his hope is for “Number one, he (Brady) play for the Patriots. Or number two, he retires.”

So with Kraft in his corner and Belichick noncommittal, it would seemingly indicate the marriage between Brady and the Patriots isn’t headed for the rocks. But it also poses an interesting question. Why let it get to this point? Well for one reason, the cap. Once the regular season ended, Brady’s current $21.5 million 2019 cap number was locked in. And any new bonuses associated with a new deal could be prorated against New England’s cap for the life of the contract. That’s important for teams hoping to compete in today’s NFL. Quarterback contracts can cripple a franchise. Another reason is that it was, according to Kraft, it is important for Tom to “be free to do whatever he wanted” at the end of the year.

Now the question going forward will be about whether Brady intends to seek out a new employer. And even though everything comes to an end, it’s hard to imagine it ends like this. With shocking losses to the Miami Dolphins and Tennessee Titans. With Brady throwing a pick-six in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. As crazy as it sounds to even say, there seems to be a bit of unfinished business for this regime. And this football fan hopes to see them finish it. Together.