Articles - Page 133 of 135 - The Undroppables

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January 2, 2020

Man or Machine | First Look At the 2020 Rookie WR Class

Wide receiver can be one of the most difficult positions for rookies to adjust to at the NFL level. Over the past 10 seasons, just eight rookie receivers have topped the 1,000-yard mark, and only two rookies (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014, and Michael Thomas in 2016) have topped 1,100.

So which rookie wide receivers will be the most productive in terms of fantasy production in 2020? I recently spoke with noted devy guru @RayGQue on a range of topics, including a list of his top rookie wide receiver prospects in this year’s strong class. I will dive into each prospect and shed some light on why Ray and I are so high on these guys. And be sure to catch his Destination Devy Podcast on DLF. It’s a must for all dynasty league players, especially those looking to get an edge on rookie prospects.

The 2020 Rookie Class has been one of the most hyped in years. But is this class more machine than man? Let me help you terminate the competition with insight from my initial scan of these prospects.

CeeDee Lamb – Oklahoma

While he didn’t garner the attention of teammate Hollywood Brown at Oklahoma, Lamb was very good for the Sooners.

The biggest downside with Lamb is that he lacks game-breaking speed, although he more than makes up for with great hands, polished route running and contested catch ability. At 6-2, 190, Lamb has the physique of a prototypical NFL #1 receiver. Lamb has excellent body control and uses his big frame to consistently win at the catch point and finish through contact. He easily defeats press coverage with a variety of techniques. He’s sudden in and out of breaks and has the vision and creativity to create separation in the open field. This is the attribute we look for in game-breakers. Perhaps no play showcased his ability more than the touchdown he scored in the Red River Shootout this past year. He fought through contact to catch a wobbler from QB Jalen Hurts. Lamb then broke two tackles, managed to keep his balance and tiptoe five yards to the end zone. His teammates call him a magician. Watching his tape it’s easy to see why.

Jalen Reagor – Texas Christian University

Reagor’s blinding speed immediately announces it’s presence on the field and demands opposing defenses’ focus. A true home run hitter, Reagor is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Think young DeSean Jackson but with more speed (yes, more). And even though speed kills, the TCU product possesses shiftiness at the line of scrimmage that allows him to create space and separation. He sells cuts hard and is explosive after the catch. In terms of weaknesses, Reagor needs to polish his route running and expand his route tree. With that said, you simply cannot teach this kind of speed or his ability to gain chunk yardage after the catch.

Jerry Jeudy – Alabama

As far back as 2017, NFL scouts (and devy players) have been drooling over Jeudy. Tabbed the next great Alabama receiver, Jeudy stands to be the next in a long line that produced Julio Jones, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley.

If you want to know why Jeudy has the following, flip on his game film. The first attribute that jumps out is speed. Jeudy uses a lighting quick first step to reach second gear in an instant. But along with being a vertical threat, Jeudy should be an excellent third-down weapon in the NFL with his ability to get open on short to intermediate routes. His after the catch ability and phenomenal footwork give him the ability to turn any reception into a house call. ESPN’s Todd McShay called Jeudy the best route runner he’s ever evaluated. He’s a top-five player in the class and should step right on to an NFL field as starter on day 1.

Tee Higgins – Clemson

Higgins is a natural hands catcher that displays great extension. A physically imposing receiver who wins the catch point and finishes through contact, the Clemson WR has as a catch radius that would make Josh Allen look accurate. You don’t expect someone his size (6’4″ 215) to have the crispness in his routes that Higgens effortlessly displays. His slants and double moves routinely leave defenders in his wake. Excellent body control and deadly in the red area.

The main knock on Higgins may be that he’ is “just a possession receiver”, but I don’t know many possession receivers who average 20 YPC! His production was held back by Clemson spreading the ball around to a stable of playmakers so don’t blame any disappointment in production on Higgins. This day two game-changing prospect has the upside to shoot up draft boards over the offseason.

Laviska Shenault – Colorado

Fans lust over his big-play abilities and rightfully so as Shenault rarely disappoints. Laviska burst onto the scene in Colorado, scoring the first time he ever touched the football. And then went on to have plays of at least 25 yards in his next six games. He led the nation in scrimmage yards per play (10.9) and showed his versatility by lining up all over the field.

First contact rarely affects him and his stout frame allows him to truck through arm tackles… this guy turns into a running back after the catch. His field vision allows him to gain YAC in chunks. Shenault also tracks the ball well and possesses above average body control. In terms of negatives, Shenault’s routes tend to get away from him so his route running needs to be more crisp. With all that, Shenault has more than enough speed to project as more than a possession receiver in the NFL. Think a bigger Deebo Samuel.

Man or Machine | First Look At the 2020 Rookie WR Class

Rookie

Randal Kennedy

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January 2, 2020

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Wide receiver can be one of the most difficult positions for rookies to adjust to at the NFL level. Over the past 10 seasons, just eight rookie receivers have topped the 1,000-yard mark, and only two rookies (Odell Beckham Jr. in 2014, and Michael Thomas in 2016) have topped 1,100.

So which rookie wide receivers will be the most productive in terms of fantasy production in 2020? I recently spoke with noted devy guru @RayGQue on a range of topics, including a list of his top rookie wide receiver prospects in this year’s strong class. I will dive into each prospect and shed some light on why Ray and I are so high on these guys. And be sure to catch his Destination Devy Podcast on DLF. It’s a must for all dynasty league players, especially those looking to get an edge on rookie prospects.

The 2020 Rookie Class has been one of the most hyped in years. But is this class more machine than man? Let me help you terminate the competition with insight from my initial scan of these prospects.

CeeDee Lamb – Oklahoma

While he didn’t garner the attention of teammate Hollywood Brown at Oklahoma, Lamb was very good for the Sooners.

The biggest downside with Lamb is that he lacks game-breaking speed, although he more than makes up for with great hands, polished route running and contested catch ability. At 6-2, 190, Lamb has the physique of a prototypical NFL #1 receiver. Lamb has excellent body control and uses his big frame to consistently win at the catch point and finish through contact. He easily defeats press coverage with a variety of techniques. He’s sudden in and out of breaks and has the vision and creativity to create separation in the open field. This is the attribute we look for in game-breakers. Perhaps no play showcased his ability more than the touchdown he scored in the Red River Shootout this past year. He fought through contact to catch a wobbler from QB Jalen Hurts. Lamb then broke two tackles, managed to keep his balance and tiptoe five yards to the end zone. His teammates call him a magician. Watching his tape it’s easy to see why.

Jalen Reagor – Texas Christian University

Reagor’s blinding speed immediately announces it’s presence on the field and demands opposing defenses’ focus. A true home run hitter, Reagor is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. Think young DeSean Jackson but with more speed (yes, more). And even though speed kills, the TCU product possesses shiftiness at the line of scrimmage that allows him to create space and separation. He sells cuts hard and is explosive after the catch. In terms of weaknesses, Reagor needs to polish his route running and expand his route tree. With that said, you simply cannot teach this kind of speed or his ability to gain chunk yardage after the catch.

Jerry Jeudy – Alabama

As far back as 2017, NFL scouts (and devy players) have been drooling over Jeudy. Tabbed the next great Alabama receiver, Jeudy stands to be the next in a long line that produced Julio Jones, Amari Cooper and Calvin Ridley.

If you want to know why Jeudy has the following, flip on his game film. The first attribute that jumps out is speed. Jeudy uses a lighting quick first step to reach second gear in an instant. But along with being a vertical threat, Jeudy should be an excellent third-down weapon in the NFL with his ability to get open on short to intermediate routes. His after the catch ability and phenomenal footwork give him the ability to turn any reception into a house call. ESPN’s Todd McShay called Jeudy the best route runner he’s ever evaluated. He’s a top-five player in the class and should step right on to an NFL field as starter on day 1.

Tee Higgins – Clemson

Higgins is a natural hands catcher that displays great extension. A physically imposing receiver who wins the catch point and finishes through contact, the Clemson WR has as a catch radius that would make Josh Allen look accurate. You don’t expect someone his size (6’4″ 215) to have the crispness in his routes that Higgens effortlessly displays. His slants and double moves routinely leave defenders in his wake. Excellent body control and deadly in the red area.

The main knock on Higgins may be that he’ is “just a possession receiver”, but I don’t know many possession receivers who average 20 YPC! His production was held back by Clemson spreading the ball around to a stable of playmakers so don’t blame any disappointment in production on Higgins. This day two game-changing prospect has the upside to shoot up draft boards over the offseason.

Laviska Shenault – Colorado

Fans lust over his big-play abilities and rightfully so as Shenault rarely disappoints. Laviska burst onto the scene in Colorado, scoring the first time he ever touched the football. And then went on to have plays of at least 25 yards in his next six games. He led the nation in scrimmage yards per play (10.9) and showed his versatility by lining up all over the field.

First contact rarely affects him and his stout frame allows him to truck through arm tackles… this guy turns into a running back after the catch. His field vision allows him to gain YAC in chunks. Shenault also tracks the ball well and possesses above average body control. In terms of negatives, Shenault’s routes tend to get away from him so his route running needs to be more crisp. With all that, Shenault has more than enough speed to project as more than a possession receiver in the NFL. Think a bigger Deebo Samuel.

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Quarterbacks

Chalk

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December 31, 2019

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Final Exam is a statistical deep-dive into a select group of prospects from each rookie class. With an analytics-driven approach, an objective breakdown is provided so readers can properly adjust their perspectives from a dynasty lens.

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Running Backs

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers

In the 2019 rookie class,

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Dwayne Haskins, Washington Redskins
Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Drew Lock, Denver Broncos
Gardner Minshew, Jacksonville Jaguars

Although the data set for Lock is extremely limited due to the team’s decision to start the veteran Flacco, the Denver rookie QB was included to provide a comprehensive look at the top prospects in the 2019 QB class.

To evaluate this year’s rookie QB class, I took a closer look at the following categories: Passing Productivity, Passing Opportunity, Passing Efficiency, Rushing Productivity and Rushing Opportunity.

Passing Opportunity

In terms of pass attempts, Kyler Murray led all rookies, followed by Gardner Minshew and Daniel Jones coming in third. Haskins and Lock were further down as they did not start until later in the year. Murray ended up 9th in total pass attempts among all quarterbacks in his rookie year.

An interesting (and somewhat surprising) find is that Jones actually attempted one more pass per game than Murray. Coming into the season, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury stated he wanted to run 90-95 plays per game in an uptempo, air raid offense. No team has averaged 80 offensive plays per game and 2019 was no different as the Eagles led the league with 69 plays per game. The Cardinals were actually in the bottom half of the league with 62.5, behind Jones’ Giants.

The Giants played without Saquon Barkley through much of the season and leaned on their rookie QB, which likely bumped up his per game passing volume. Even so, Jones is surrounded with receiving talent from Barkley to Engram to Slayton, Shepard and Tate so it’s easy to project high volume for Jones in his sophomore year.

Each of these rookies outside of Minshew have (guaranteed) starting jobs in 2020 so we can expect the passing volume to be there. Like Jones, we can project Murray to have top 10 passing volume as long as Kingsbury keeps his job after a mediocre first year (which is likely). If Bill Callahan stays in Washington (surprisingly, this is an actual possibility), then the Redskins offense stays run-heavy and Haskins’ pass volume will be tempered. With limited data on Lock, projecting any future 2020 volume will be challenging although Flacco did throw 32.8 times on average (close to Lock’s 31.2). At Lock’s current rookie passing rate, he’d throw 500 times in his second year, which is about middle of the pack.

Passing Productivity

Murray led the way with over 3,300 passing yards but still trailed Jones in other productivity categories (YPG and pass TDs). In fact, Kyler had the third-highest pass yards per game average.

While Murray boasts the higher floor with his rushing, the opportunity and productivity statistics show that Jones may have a higher ceiling. This is strictly conjecture at this point, but Jones can sling it and, as mentioned before, he has a plethora of weapons at his disposal. Minshew was second among rookies in terms of total pass yards while leading the 2019 class in pass yards per game.

Passing Efficiency

Accuracy Rating – Grades the accuracy each of throw on a 1-10 scale. 1-3 representing the most errand throw, 4-7 representing throws in some range of catchable but sub-optimal, and 8-10 representing the most pinpoint passes allowing receivers to convert receptions and gain yards after the catch. Quarterbacks with Accuracy Ratings above 6.0 are considered highly accurate, and those below 4.0 are considered highly inaccurate.

When looking at the 2019 rookie QB class from an accuracy standpoint, each of the five signal callers that were evaluated scored as highly accurate passers. Although it was a small sample size, Lock led rookies in accuracy rating and true completion rate but Kyler was close behind followed by Minshew and Jones in both categories. However, given the volume of the latter three mentioned, accuracy ratings at or near 7.0 is an extremely positive indicator for rookies.

A key takeaway here is that Murray scored an accuracy rating of 7.0 with top 10 passing volume. To put into some context, Murray was more accurate than Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady, among others, and just as accurate as Russell Wilson who sees much less passing volume.

Air Yards – Completed passing yards not including yards after the catch. The higher the completed air yards per attempt, the less a quarterback is being helped by his receivers gaining yards after the catch.

Adjusted Yards Per Attempt (AY/A) – Modified yards per attempt incorporates a premium for touchdowns and a discount for interceptions. This stat was introduced and fully outlined in the book The Hidden Game of Football by Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn.

The five rookie QBs each scored similarly when looking at completed air yards per attempt, all scoring in the 3’s. This is about average when comparing against all NFL quarterbacks. Whether it was conservative playcalling to prevent rookie mistakes, these young guns didn’t push the ball down the field (which is corroborated in the next category: Deep Balls).

Deep Balls

Murray may have given the edge to Jones in opportunity and efficiency, Kyler does promise a nice passing ceiling when considering deep ball volume and accuracy. Only Dak Prescott and Patrick Mahomes threw more deep balls with more accuracy than Kyler Murray. They said that Murray could sling it. They weren’t wrong.

Rushing Opportunity

Not many surprises at the top of this list with Murray at the top by a decent margin, although Kyler getting over 1 red zone carry per game is something to note and is accentuated when looking at rushing TDs (see below).

Rushing Productivity

Kyler was far and away the most prolific rusher in this class, placing 35th among all players. Murray actually had more rushing yards in his rookie year than veteran backs like James Conner, Kerryon Johnson, David Johnson, Royce Freeman, Jordan Howard, Damien Williams to name just a handful.

To put it Murray’s rushing production into further context, Joe Mixon and Alvin Kamara each had 5 rushing TDs while Murray scored four times on the ground. This probably says more about Mixon’s and Kamara’s TD regression heading into 2020, but also sheds some light into Murray being a true dual red zone threat. Murray only had four carries inside the 5 so he was running it in from anywhere in the red zone.

Turnovers

I recall Jones and Minshew having some meltdown games but I did not expect to see double-digit fumbles for these rookie QBs. The Giants and Jaguars were middle of the pack in pass protection so the carelessness with the football will need to be remedied over the offseason. Daniel Jones also threw 12 interceptions to tie Murray for the rookie lead.

Fantasy Points Scored

Kyler finishes as the top rookie QB and the QB7 overall with 18.8 points per game. Jones was still a QB2 even though he missed a few games and Minshew was right behind at #23. Haskins and Lock, understandably, were ranked near the bottom.

Grades

* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.

Kyler Murray – Heralded as the next elite Konami Code QB after Lamar Jackson, Murray came into the league with back-to-back 300 yard games but minimal rushing production. However, his rushing floor surfaced in Week 3 and has firmly established Kyler as a top 5 dynasty quarterback. Murray has an incredible floor based off his rushing production and his propensity to air it out gives him a sky-high ceiling. The biggest downside to Murray is his 26th ranked pass blocking offensive line (per Football Outsiders) that ill-affords him and his receivers time to create plays. Arizona will shore up their o-line problems this offseason to protect their franchise QB and look to replace Larry Fitzgerald who is likely retiring this time. Some have already come out and pegged Kyler as the Lamar Jackson of 2020 with a stellar breakout campaign predicted. That remains to be seen but the 2019 QB9 only has room to grow even more in an offense that is built around him and will undoubtedly add additional weapons to the fold.

Talent – ✅✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?

Dwayne Haskins – Whether the front office didn’t deem him ready to start the season, Haskins gave way to veteran journeyman Case Keenum for a good portion of the 2019 season. And even when he took the reins, the OSU product was lackluster with his best game coming against the weak Eagles secondary for 261 yards and 2 TDs. But watching the games, it was clear that Haskins was not NFL-ready to start his career and will need work. He often missed easy throws to his receivers including his former college teammate, Terry McLaurin, who suffered as a result. The preseason hype was purely based on his SportsCenter appearance where he appeared to be a prodigy when it came to defense reads and play breakdowns. But when he got on the field, his talent did not match the expectations of a top 15 overall pick in the NFL Draft, especially a franchise QB. On the upside, Haskins is only 22 and has made some plays particularly as the season has wound down. He’s a project with an uncertain situation (Washington has question marks from the front office to the coaching staff to the 31st ranked pass blocking offensive line). And outside of McLaurin and a hopefully healthy Guice, the Redskins lack playmakers around Haskins. This offseason will be critical not only for Haskins’ development but the Redskins franchise as a whole.

Talent – ?
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ❔

Daniel Jones – Danny Dimes quickly proved the haters wrong upon his entrance into the league in Week 2 with 336 passing yards and 4 total touchdowns (2 pass, 2 rush). Based off his passing volume, Jones looks to be able to support solid production numbers. The Giants are a team in transition but with an array of receiving weapons along with the transcendent Barkley, Jones will continue to develop into a solid NFL starting quarterback for the next decade. The most alarming issue with Jones, as with some of the other rookies, is ball security and his fumble issues. New York’s offensive line actually ranked 18th in pass blocking so the fumbling woes cannot be blamed on a lack of protection. Jones must protect the ball and have better game sense when it comes to pocket awareness. Currently, Dimes is squarely in the top 10 dynasty QB conversation and it would not be surprising to see him creep even higher over the offseason as the Giants continue to change things beginning with the coaching staff.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?

Drew Lock – Stuck behind veteran Joe Flacco to begin his career, Lock took some time to get on the field but immediately delivered once was given an opportunity. With that said, the sample size is limited with Lock so it is hard to judge his true talent level given the small number of attempts and games. We also don’t know much about the Broncos offense outside of Sutton, Lindsay and Fant who have defined roles. Both Daesean Hamilton and Tim Patrick are projects at best so Denver will need to retool through the draft as they likely won’t be major players for a free agent WR (as they traded the aging Emmanuel Sanders). Lock is a hold in dynasty and generally a wait and see.

Talent – ❔
Situation – ?‍♂️
Final Grade – ?

Gardner Minshew – Minshew Mania took the NFL world by storm and the mustaches were out in full force in Duval. But things eventually soured when Minshew hit the rookie wall at the most inopportune time for him… when Nick Foles was set to be activated from IR. In the game before Foles’ activation, Minshew had a complete meltdown with 2 interceptions and 2 fumbles in a blowout loss against the Texans. Minshew was promptly benched only to be reinserted as the starter after Foles had a meltdown of his own. As of now, we are unsure as to who will hold the keys to the Jaguars offense next season but Foles is a salary cap liability after signing a 4 year $88,000,000 contract this offseason. Minshew has flashed at times but has also driven his fantasy owners crazy with up and down weeks at any given moment. He’s fun to watch but wild gunslinging ways make unpredictable and inconsistent. Tread with caution and don’t get caught up in the Minshew Mania or you might be having a meltdown of your own.

Talent – ?
Situation – ?‍♂️
Final Grade – ?

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 17)

Michael Reedy

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December 28, 2019

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Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2019 – Week 17)

For most of us championship week was last week. But for some Week 17 is still being played so with that in mind I did one last Money Makers & Heart Breakers for 2019. We will take into account some players may not actually even play – See Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram

Quarterbacks

? Money Makers

Carson Wentz – Wentz has just been playing out of his mind over the last month, including during a Week 14 matchup against the Giants where he put up 325 yards and 3 touchdowns. Wentz faces the Giants again who are not good against the pass being the third friendliest defense for quarterbacks in fantasy. You can expect Wentz to throw the ball 40 something times this game and get you the fantasy points you need in this penultimate week.

Ryan Tannehill – In Week 15, Tannehill hit the Texans with 272 passing and 2 total scores. Tannehill has been listed as a Money Maker every single week I have written this column and here he is again. Tannehill gets to warm up for the playoffs by torching this bottom 5 fantasy pass defense.

Jared Goff – (If he plays) Goff could give up reps to Bortles in Week 17 with the Rams out of the playoff picture, but there are no signs that Goff is sitting. With that in mind, Los Angeles faces the Cardinals who are the worts team against quarterbacks this season. Goff has struggled under pressure but Arizona will present no pressure on the Rams QB as the Cardinals lack anyone on their defensive front that is capable of consistently getting to the QB. Earlier this month, these teams faced off and Goff threw for 424 yards with 2 passing TDs. You can look for similar numbers from the Rams QB this week.

Other quarterbacks I like in Week 17 are Daniel Jones, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers

? Heart Breakers

Matt Ryan – Matty Ice comes in as a Heart Breaker once again, even though he is facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Ryan struggled against the Bucs back in Week 12 and without Calvin Ridley, the Falcons offense just lacks the juice for Ryan to boast QB1 upside. And although Tampa has been known to be fairly weak against the pass, things have turned around in south Florida including a recent dismantling of Deshaun Watson. Matty will be icy cold this week and produce less than you would expect.

Kirk Cousins – The Bears defense is good against the pass and Cousins hasn’t looked great recently against the likes of the Packers and the Chargers. In fact, over the past 2 weeks, Cousins has only totaled 327 yards 2 TDs with a pair of interceptions. He’s definitely been on the downtrend and a date with Chicago isn’t the cure, especially with Cook still out. There is no one to take the pressure off the passing game. Cousins needs a strong running game to achieve a solid floor and he just doesn’t have it right now. The last time Cousins played the Bears was in Week 4 and he managed 233 yards and no touchdowns. I don’t expect the Vikings passing game to go nuts in against the Bears in this tough divisional matchup.

Running Backs

? Money Makers

Austin Ekeler – The Chiefs defense is actually pretty friendly to running backs (just like their offense). In their last matchup, Ekeler got them for 108 yards rushing with 5 receptions for 24 yards. Ove the last 3 weeks, Kansas City has bottled up the RB position against the Patriots, Broncos, and Bears. You can look for Ekeler to pile up some yards with short passes and break out some nice runs against the Chiefs this week.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt – The Bengals have given up good rushing games the last three weeks to the Dolphins (Gaskins 55 yards but scored a TD), Patriots (White, Burkhead and Michel all scored in double digits in fantasy when New England faced Cincinnati), and the Browns (both Hunt and Chubb also had double-digit fantasy points). With this in mind, you can expect the Browns to come in with the game plan of utilizing both of their backs against the Bengals.

Marlon Mack – Mack rumbled for 95 yards and a touchdown last week against Carolina, who struggles against the run. This week Mack gets another porous defense against the run in the Jaguars. I expect Mack to produce a similar outing to what he produced in Week 16 as the Jags continue to give up big plays to opposing running backs every week.

Other running backs I really like this week are Mixon, Jones, Kamara and Damien Williams

? Heart Breakers

Devonta Freeman – Tampa Bay is stout against the run and the Falcons struggle to run against tough run defenses. Tampa has not allowed an opponent rush for over 100 yards since Week 9, and that was Chris Carson, who was getting high touch volume with the Seahawks and very capable of producing with it. Unfortunately for Freeman, Atlanta doesn’t run the ball as much as Seattle and Freeman is not as talented runner as Carson.

Wide Receivers

? Money Makers

Breshard Perriman – 25.5 % or the target share last week for 12 targets, 7 receptions and 102 yards. The past four weeks he has had 87 yards, 70 yards and a TD, 113 yards and 3 TDs and 102 yards. Perriman will continue to roll as the number 1 wide receiver in an offense boasting a trigger happy Jameis Winston.

Allen Robinson – Robinson has averaged 11.2 targets over the past 5 games and he had a solid 7 for 77 outing against the Vikings in Week 4. Add to this that the Vikings are a bottom 10 defense against the wide receiver position and we can deduce a pretty damn good day for Robinson in Week 17. Take the volume and go with it.

Sterling Shepard – It was stated earlier in this column that the Eagles are good against the run, well they are not so good against the pass. Shepard’s last two weeks he has seen 9 receptions for 111 yards against Miami and 6 receptions for 76 yards and a TD against the Redskins. Jones does spread the ball around so it could be Tate or even Slayton that gets most of the production here but I like Shepard now that he is healthy.

Other wide receivers I like for Week 17 are Thomas, Jones, Adams all to be highly productive.

? Heart Breakers

Davante Parker – The best defense against the pass is the Patriots. Only 2 receivers have 100-yard games against the Patriots and both were slot receivers. Parker has been tearing it up with Fitzmagic forcing him the ball. This is also the week to move away from Parker in DFS. I would expect a disappointing 4 receptions for 50 yards this week.

Tight Ends

? Money Makers

Dallas Goedert – The Eagles still need pass catchers and Goedert had a career game last week with 9 receptions for 91 yards and touchdown. Ertz is a game-time decision. If Ertz is out Goedert will have another monster day, if Ertz plays Goedert should still have a very productive day as one of the trusted receivers for Wentz.

Jared Cook – Carolina is actually good against the tight end position but Cook has had over 50 yards and/or a touchdown every week since the week 9 bye. He has proven to be a big play threat and the second option in the Saints passing attack. I would look for Cook to have another solid day against the Panthers like he did in week 12 where he had 6 catches for 99 yards and a TD.

Other tight ends I like this week– Hooper, Ertz(if he plays), and obviously Kittle and Kelce.

? Heart Breakers

Mike Gesicki – Gesicki had a big game last week with 82 yards and 2 touchdowns, but please don’t chase the box score. The Patriots have only allowed 2 tight ends to have more than 5 catches on the season and have not given up a 100 yard game to the position all season (only one game with over 66 yards). Fade the Dolphins tight end even though he’s been trending upwards recently.

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Wide Receivers

Chalk

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December 26, 2019

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Final Exam is a statistical deep-dive into a select group of prospects from each rookie class. With an analytics-driven approach, an objective breakdown is provided so readers can properly adjust their perspectives from a dynasty lens.

Note: These statistics are current as of December 25, 2019 (before Week 17 games).

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Quarterbacks

Final Exam | 2019 Rookie Running Backs

In the 2019 rookie class, there were 7 notable wide receivers many considered to be first or second round talent (with the exception of Terry “F1” McLaurin who had a third round rookie ADP).

- N’Keal Harry, New England Patriots
- A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
- Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers
- D.K. Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
- Parris Campbell, Indianapolis Colts
- Terry McLaurin, Washington Redskins
- Marquise Brown, Baltimore Ravens

Although the data sets for Campbell and Harry were limited due to missed games caused by injuries, these two were included to provide a comprehensive look at the top prospects in the 2019 WR class.

Receiving

A.J. Brown, posted a rookie best 927 receiving yards on 48 receptions (2nd). Brown also had a whopping 19.3 yards per reception in his rookie year with Marcus Mariota under center for 5 games to start the season.

In terms of receptions, McLaurin led the rookie pack with 58 catches. F1 was 2nd among rookies with 919 receiving yards while tying D.K. Metcalf with 15.8 yards per reception. Metcalf was third among rookies in receiving yards with 819.

The aforementioned Metcalf and his NFC West counterpart, Deebo Samuel, both caught 52 balls as the alpha receiving options for their teams. Deebo posted 700 receiving yards and a solid 13.5 yards per reception. As we will discuss below, Deebo’s yardage was driven heavily by his yards after catch ability as he recorded below average air yards.

Due to lack of games played, N’Keal Harry (9/76) and Parris Campbell (18/127) were nonfactors with minimal reception and yardage totals.

Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement and Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average

Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR) – Per Football Outsiders, this metric gives the value of the performance on plays where this WR caught the ball, compared to replacement level, adjusted for situation and opponent and then translated into yardage.

Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) – Per Football Outsiders, this metric represents value, per play, over an average WR in the same game situations. The more positive the DVOA rating, the better the player’s performance.

A quick glance at the table above shows that both A.J. Brown and Terry McLaurin were head and shoulders above the rest of the 2019 class when looking at DYAR and DVOA. Their 200+ defense-adjusted yards above replacement level and the excellent DVOA scores are positive signs for two players who are emerging as the number one options for their teams (see below “Targets and HOG Rate”). Brown posted scores of 208 and 24.1% while McLaurin had a DYAR of 212 and a DVOA of 18.7%.

Deebo (105/7.5%), Metcalf (90/0.4%) and Hollywood (95/4.5%) each lacked consistency from week to week facing different defensive looks, which is illustrated by their sub-par to average DYAR and DVOA scores.

Due to missed games and lack of production, Harry (-10/-21.4%) and Campbell (-108/-75.8%) scored extremely poorly in terms of DYAR and DVOA.

Targets and HOG Rate

Target Share – Measures the percentage of all passing targets directed at a particular wide receiver or tight end in games that that receiver was involved in the passing attack.

HOG Rate – Captures the rate of passing game utilization on a per play basis by calculating the number of targets per snap. Read more about HOG Rate here as broken down by Terminator.

Although no rookie receiver cracked the top 30 among WRs in HOG Rate, Hollywood Brown had a respectable rate of 14.6%. Marquise saw 69 targets (5.6 per game), good for a 21% share of the Ravens’ team targets.

F1 had the highest target total and target share amount rookies with 93 targets and a 22.9% share, ranking him 22nd among all wide receivers. Metcalf also saw 20% of his team’s targets with 88 looks from Russ.

In terms of targets per game, Campbell’s lack of opportunity despite a shallow receiving corps in Indy could be another red flag in addition to his inability to stay healthy. Both A.J. and Marquise Brown, Deebo, McLaurin, and D.K. averaged at least 5 targets per game, which provides WR3 level floors.

Yards After Catch and Catch Rate

True Catch Rate – Captures a player’s ability to secure the football in all situations regardless of the level of difficulty by dividing the total receptions by total catchable targets.

* Denotes Catch Rate as True Catch Rate was not available for this player.

Once again, A.J. Brown and Deebo Samuel stand out in the analysis, showing how dangerous they are with the ball in their hands. Their yards after catch totals led rookies (300+ ypc). When you factor in their 80% true catch rates, it’s becoming clear that these young guns can make plays.

With solid true catch and contested catch rates, McLaurin was among the league leaders in both categories. This speaks volumes to his ability to go up and get the ball over defenders with sure hands, making him a reliable and consistent weapon.

In somewhat of a surprise, Marquise Brown, known as a burner during the pre-draft process, led all rookies in true catch rate.

Again, due to lack of opportunities on the field (caused by injuries), Harry and Campbell did not post any numbers of significance in these categories.

Air Yards

Air Yards – For wide receivers, air yards are total completed receiving yards from the line of scrimmage to the catch point.

Another measure of productivity is air yards, which shows how far the receiver is getting down the field before getting the ball. McLaurin (636) led all rookie WRs with Metcalf (578) and AJB (508) close behind. Hollywood posted 373 total air yards while averaging 5.6 air yards per target.

Deebo may be a gamechanger but his low air yards total (301) with a mediocre-at-best 4.3 air yards per target, shows that he is generally getting the ball close to the line of scrimmage.

Campbell may boast breakaway speed and elusiveness, but his 1.1 air yards per target may be a sign that he will be confined to a gadget role. Harry mainly operated in red zone packages when he was available, which is reflected with a minimal 3.6 air yards per target and 50 total air yards.

Red Zone Usage and Touchdowns

Red Zone Target Share – Measures the percentage of all passing targets from a line of scrimmage at or inside the 20-yard line directed at a particular wide receiver or tight end in games that the receiver was involved in the passing attack.

Not surprisingly, the WRs with good size saw the most red zone targets and red zone target share in year one: Deebo (16/23.5%), D.K. (13/18.8%) and McLaurin (13/23.6%). Correspondingly, these three along with Hollywood (12/19.7%) saw the highest red zone target share among rookie WRs.

A.J. Brown may have not seen even a 20% red zone target share, but he still demonstrated a propensity to score with 7 touchdown receptions while seeing 8 red zone targets. F1 and Hollywood also posted 7 receiving scores.

Drops

The key takeaways here are that each of these first-year receivers had their share of (bad) drops, which isn’t surprising for rookies. However, Samuel, in particular, had an alarming drop rate of 12.9%. Metcalf also had a fairly high drop rate of 6.9%.

Fantasy Points Scored (PPR)

A.J. Brown (WR22) had a spectacular rookie year, putting up 194.7 total PPR points (13 ppg). This is an impressive feat given he played in a run-heavy scheme with two different QBs while adjusting to the NFL game.

Terry McLaurin (WR25) started off fast like a F1 racecar, hit a midseason rookie wall and then broke through to finish off the season. Like Brown, McLaurin played with multiple signal callers in his first year. As of Week 16, McLaurin scored 191.9 points in PPR formats (13.7 ppg).

D.K. Metcalf had an up and down season that culminated in a WR3 finish. Not bad for a player who was mocked for 3-cone drills and pegged as a one-dimensional threat. With 167 total points scored (11.1 ppg), Metcalf finishes as WR34.

Deebo Samuel scored 148.8 points (11.4) and ranked as the 42nd ranked WR. Marquise Brown was close behind at 44, scoring 142.9 PPR points (11 ppg).

Harry (26.7/5.3) and Campbell (38.1/5.4) each ranked outside the top 100 with minor contributions.

Grades

* This is only a one-year sample size, but we can extract some information from what we’ve seen and make adjustments this offseason.

N’Keal Harry – When he was drafted by the Patriots, many considered Harry to be a lock for instant NFL success. With his college production, athletic profile, and skill set, there is no reason why Harry cannot be a solid contributor for years to come. However, the biggest question mark heading into 2020 beyond is the status of Tom Brady. Where will the GOAT play next season and the years after? If Brady leaves, does Belichick retire? Those are legitimate questions and concerns for Patriots fans and Harry owners alike. This year has to be written off as a redshirt season due to an ankle injury that forced him on IR to start his career so the jury is still out on whether Harry will find the success that is well within reach. He’s a buy low WR4 based on youth and potential.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ?

A.J. Brown – Coming into his rookie year, A.J. Brown was considered by many to be the top WR prospect in this year’s class (Shoutout to Samuel Wallace over at DFF). The season that Brown put together with 927 receiving yards on only 48 receptions is proof that he can flat out make plays. He also posted four games over 100 receiving yards (as noted above). Looking at his situation is another story, although not necessarily negative. Ryan Tannehill stepped in as the Titans’ QB and turned things around quickly. Now faced with a decision on whether to franchise tag or extend Tannehill, the Titans’ decision will play a major factor in Brown’s immediate (and continued) success. Personally, I am not sold that Tannehill is a true long term (or even viable) solution. He may end up to be the next Nick Foles. Currently, with Tannehill projected to be around, Brown is locked in as a solid WR3 with WR2 upside.

Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?

Deebo Samuel – Deebo was drafted to put heat on Dante Pettis but Samuel ended up torching the incumbent. A bigger, faster and better version of Pettis, the 49ers rookie made splash plays throughout the season. Kyle Shanahan has looked to get the ball to Samuel in the red zone so the scoring upside is there. And although San Francisco tries to grind down their opponents with a three-headed RBBC, Samuel provides the offense with a spark that adds a whole different dynamic. This contrast from the run dominant approach allows Samuel to catch opposing defenses off guard for chunk gains, enhanced by his YAC ability. While he finishes as a mid-range WR4 in year one, Deebo has WR3 upside written all over him.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅
Final Grade – ?

D.K. Metcalf – Metcalf entered the league with hopeful, yet tempered, expectation as he did not have elite college production nor workout metrics. He also looked clunky on tape during team drills during the offseason, but Metcalf put those doubts to rest early in his career with lines of 6/68 and 7/75 in Weeks 3 and 4. D.K. continued to produce throughout the season, flashing WR2 upside with a 24.3 point outing in Week 8 then scoring 2 TDs the following week. Metcalf’s target share, catch rate and air yards are all positive indicators of future production and success. In terms of situation, Metcalf finds himself in probably the most stable one while being tied to an elite QB in Wilson. Metcalf is also shaping up as the Seahawk’s #1 passing option with his size and speed.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?

Parris Campbell – Campbell has the draft capital to support our notions that he is a talented and promising player. But due to his failure to stay healthy and ultimately get on the playing field, his evaluation is incomplete at this time.

Talent – ❔
Situation – ❔
Final Grade – ❔

Terry McLaurin – F1 checked all of the boxes in the rookie evaluation process: production, opportunity, playmaking, reliability, and consistency. The numbers speak for themselves as McLaurin ranked near or at the top in essentially of the categories above. On the other hand, the red flags with McLaurin are the Washington offense (quarterback, offensive line, coaching) and the real possibility that the Redskins add another WR in the draft or free agency to soak up targets. The team desperately needs playmakers. Haskins struggled and failed to resemble the franchise QB that he was drafted to be. Even though McLaurin and Haskins have the OSU connection, none of that matter if Haskins can’t give his teammate catchable targets. McLaurin is a very talented player with the potential to be a WR1 if Washington can figure things out. As frustrating as it is, we just need to wait and hope for the best.

Talent – ✅✅
Situation – ?
Final Grade – ?

Marquise Brown – Hollywood had a respectable rookie season from a utilization standpoint (strong target share and HOG rate), but left some to be desired in the productivity categories. Battling back from a Lisfranc injury, Brown missed a number of games that affected his production. On the other hand, Brown was targeted often by MVP favorite Lamar Jackson and consistently secured the balls thrown his way. High utilization in a high-powered offense led by a dynamic playmaker in Lamar Jackson has all the makings of a “Hollywood” success story.

Talent – ✅
Situation – ✅✅
Final Grade – ?