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Shaping Your Roster | Fantasy Football Waiver Wire – Week 2

Derek Fuchs
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Shaping Your Roster | Fantasy Football Waiver Wire – Week 2

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Nothing crazier than the first week of the NFL season.  Upsets and team usage are all over the place – it will take a few weeks before we have enough data to start making decisions. But there are always injuries, and we need to add players to our rosters to help. We hope every injured player has a speedy recovery; it’s the worst thing in sports.

This week’s theme will be – Offenses we didn’t think would do well … did well.

*Disclaimer on Sleeper rostership: these will heavily point to dynasty leagues, but I wanted visibility.

QUARTERBACK

Mac Jones (New England Patriots)

Yahoo – 8% Rostered
ESPN – 5% Rostered
Sleeper – 37% Rostered

Mac started the season with a terrible matchup with the Philadelphia Eagles. Mac finished with 316 passing yards, three touchdowns in the rain, and a slow start. How does he get to follow up this game? Against the Miami Dolphins, who just had their shootout with the Los Angeles Chargers.

Matthew Stafford (Los Angeles Rams)

Yahoo – 29% Rostered
ESPN – 30% Rostered
Sleeper – 91% Rostered

No Cooper Kupp and against a division rival? The process to not have Stafford for Week 1 was solid, but he proved us all wrong.  He will get back Cooper Kupp, and with the emergence of Puka Nacua (later in this article), Stafford might be a weekly starter again. It’s not the easiest schedule with the 49ers next week, but McVay has always had their number, and Stafford might be okay.

RUNNING BACKS

Tyler Allgeier (Atlanta Falcons)

Yahoo – 56% Rostered
ESPN – 44% Rostered
Sleeper – 46% Rostered

Bijan Robinson is RB1, am I right?! Arthur Smith continues to not care about fantasy football (he probably shouldn’t) and wants to play whoever he wants (this part is probably bad).  Tyler Allgeier ended up being back with the most touches and two scores; watching this running back by committee will be interesting.  He may not get the start on your team as we learn more about usage, but he should not be on waivers after this week.

Kyren Williams (Los Angeles Rams)

Yahoo – 5% Rostered
ESPN – 10% Rostered
Sleeper – 6% Rostered

The usage speaks for itself. Cam Akers might still have their role, but Kyren was the clear pass catcher and had more snaps.  If you need a running back, this is one of the top options to get for the season.

Justice Hill (Baltimore Ravens)

Yahoo – 3% Rostered
ESPN – 0% Rostered
Sleeper – 5% Rostered

We all hope for a healthy recovery for J.K. Dobbins; it’s terrible to see how his career has been plagued with injuries at the start. Justice Hill stepped up in the game after the injury. I wanted to include him in the list, but I would be cautious about starting him.  They immediately activated Melvin Gordon off the practice squad, and Gus Edwards is still there. We need more information on usage for this backfield.

Kenneth Gainwell (Philadelphia Eagles)

Yahoo – 47% Rostered
ESPN – 22% Rostered
Sleeper – 61% Rostered

Career high in snaps and touches, with the Eagles healthy scratching Rashaad Penny. Gainwell looked like the man for the offense, and this is the top option to add this week.  They are in the better offense and look to be the workhorse back.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Puka Nacua (Los Angeles Rams)

Yahoo – 5% Rostered
ESPN – 2% Rostered
Sleeper – 0% Rostered

We were on Puka this offseason coming out of the draft. This is your top WR add this week, even with Cooper Kupp returning; Puka has played himself to be a force in this offense. So happy for him!

Romeo Doubs (Green Bay Packers)

Yahoo – 31% Rostered
ESPN – 19% Rostered
Sleeper – 53% Rostered

With no Christian Watson and injury concern himself, I don’t blame anyone for not starting Romeo Doubs.  But….now we know we need to add him to our rosters.  Jordan Love looked poised, and this offense might be explosive on weeks against porous defenses. Add Doubs if you have room. Plus, if you have Calvin Ridley and add him, you can change your team name to Calvin and Doubs.

TIGHT ENDS

Hunter Henry (New England Patriots)

Yahoo – 16% Rostered
ESPN – 4% Rostered
Sleeper – 65% Rostered

Worries about their signing of Mike Gesicki; Hunter out targets and outran him all game.  Mac Jones returned to familiar faces this game when he needed to, and Hunter Henry is that player.  Comfortably pick him up and start him next week against the Miami Dolphins.

Hayden Hurst (Carolina Panthers)

Yahoo – 11% Rostered
ESPN – 5% Rostered
Sleeper – 22% Rostered

It may not have been a great game for the Panthers, but Hayden had a good day. Lead the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards.  He also had their lone touchdown. A target favorite for Bryce Young to start the season, and with how bad the tight-end landscape is – add Hurst if you can or need one.

DROP CANDIDATES

Skyy Moore and Kadarius Toney – WR (Kansas City Chiefs)

As a Kansas City Chiefs fan, this will be unbiased. I think neither player should see the field or the football ever again. I imagine these players will be in the doghouse in the future, and I expect Justyn Ross to start getting more looks. Expect the Chiefs to be active in trading for a wide receiver.

D’Andre Swift – RB (Philadelphia Eagles)

Maybe it wasn’t just the Lions that hated Swift.  A major non-factor in the game, I would expect this to not change much with how well Gainwell performed. Penny could also play any week, and Swift isn’t playing on special teams. Watch for Swift to start being the healthy scratch.

Off the Top | NFL DFS Week 1

Derek Fuchs
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Off the Top | NFL DFS Week 1

Support for Off The Top is brought to you by ​MANSCAPED™, the best in men’s below-the-waist grooming. MANSCAPED™ products are precision-engineered tools for your family jewels. In addition, MANSCAPED’s™ Performance Package is the ultimate men’s hygiene bundle! Join over 6 million men worldwide who trust MANSCAPED with this exclusive offer for you…. 20% off and free worldwide shipping with the code UND at manscaped.com. If my math is correct, that’s about 12 million balls.

In this weekly DFS article, Abe (DFS_Docket) goes over the top salaried players in both DraftKings and Fanduel and tells you who he thinks you should play and who you should avoid. Using this article to help construct your rosters, you will better understand who to pay up to win you some money!

Quarterbacks

Paying Up – Russell Wilson vs. Las Vegas Raiders (26th vs. QBs in 2022)

Draftkings – $5,900
Fanduel – $7,300

At $5,900, Russel Wilson is a steal this week. The Raiders have notoriously been bad against fantasy quarterbacks. It is very understandable to want to stay away from Russell Wilson this season, but under the tutelage of Sean Payton, I expect Wilson to bounce back strong, which starts in Week 1.

Avoiding – Deshaun Watson vs. Cincinnati Bengals (10th vs. QBs in 2022)

Draftkings – $6,000
Fanduel – $7,400

Just about every AFC North game turns into an all-out physical warfare. With Joe Burrow returning from an injury and not being 100%, I think this game is a low-scoring, defensive game. Nick Chubb might have a great game, but Watson will not.

Running Backs

Paying Up – Joe Mixon at Cleveland Browns (27th vs. RBs in 2022)

Draftkings – $6,800
Fanduel – $7,500

As discussed with Deshaun Wataon, this game will be physical, and Joe Burrow is returning to full strength. I expect the Bengals to run the ball early in the season, and Joe Mixon is a workhorse. It’s a simple math game here.

Avoiding – Najee Harris vs. San Francisco 49ers (1st vs. RBs in 2022)

Draftkings – $6,000
Fanduel – $6,700

The 49ers were the #1 team vs. fantasy running backs in 2022, which will be the same in 2023. The Steelers’ offensive line is still a giant question mark, and with Kenny Pickett not scaring anyone, defenses will focus on Najee.

Wide Receivers

Paying Up – Christian Kirk at Colts (11th vs. WRs in 2022)

Draftkings – $5,600
Fanduel – $6,900

The Colts’ defense is rebuilding, and the Jaguars’ offense has shown it can be explosive. Calvin Ridley is in the fold now, but building a relationship with Trevor Lawrence will take time. The organization highly pays Christian Kirk and already has a rapport with Trevor Lawrence.

Avoiding – DeAndre Hopkins at Saints (9th vs. WRs in 2022)

Draftkings – $6,900
Fanduel – $7,500

Hopkins is going to a new team and city, and Ryan Tannehill is on the downward end of his career; this is Derrick Henry’s team. Take all that and have him in a one-on-one matchup vs. a top corner in Marshon Lattimore, and it’s a risk I don’t want to take this week.

Dominate Parlays with Pharaoh Analytics

Chosen Blakey
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Dominate Parlays with Pharaoh Analytics

Parlay betting, and the fusion of potential high rewards and significant risks that it brings, can be a thrilling part of the sports betting landscape. But too often, we fall short on parlays by one leg, or by one play or score. One way to approach parlay betting more strategically is to envision it as managing a pool of bets, meticulously crafting core parlays from your most confident picks. Just as you wouldn’t want to get stuck over-drafting one player in fantasy football, it is easier to navigate parlays if you have multiple good options. As the NFL & NCAA football season approaches, let’s uncover the art of this approach, to help you increase your ROI.

The Pool Perspective: More Than Just Numbers

Think of your potential bets as a pool of options. Instead of randomly assembling parlays, sift through this pool and select the wagers you’re most confident in. These choices become your core parlays — smart, calculated combinations designed to optimize your winning chances based on your insights and knowledge.

Crafting Your Core Parlays: Your Fantasy Team of Bets

Building a core parlay is akin to hand-picking a dream fantasy team. Each selection is a star player, a pick you have strong faith in:

  • Selection Process: Start by listing all potential bets. From this roster, meticulously pick the ones you have the most confidence in. These are your core bets.
  • Combination Strategy: Pair these core bets tactically, looking for combinations that balance risk and potential rewards.

Instead of having a minimum set of plays you parlay together, find the ODDS you want to play at. If a Same Game Parlay (SGP) gives you +100, but the data suggests it’s highly likely to hit, take it. You will be profitable over time time, if you consistently hit at +100.

Golden Opportunities: NFL and NCAA Football Division Winners

Here lies a golden opportunity: parlaying NFL and NCAA football division winners. This type of bet naturally aligns with the pool approach. It involves selecting which teams you believe will win their respective divisions — a longer-term bet that can result in substantial payouts with careful planning.

  • Identifying Strong Picks: Study the teams. Find good data that you can rely on; avoid making selections based off emotions.
  • Pairing for Success: Consider coupling an NFL division winner with an NCAA division winner in your parlay to diversify and spread the risk.
  • Don’t Get Greedy: Don’t let the enticing payout of a long-odds parlay distract you. Take the easy bets that align with your strategy.

Balancing the Scales: Risk and Reward

Parlays are synonymous with high risk and high reward. The pool approach is about balance. Assign a fixed percentage of your betting capital to these parlays and adhere to this allocation. It helps you manage the risk while engaging in the excitement of potential big wins.

Avoid the Pitfalls: Emotions and Overextension

Pitfalls in parlay pool betting often stem from emotional decisions or overextension in wager size. Steer clear of impulsive choices. Take time to consider each core parlay, weighing the risks and potential rewards comprehensively.

The Strategic Game of Parlay Betting

The pool approach to parlay betting — meticulously crafting core parlays from your most confident picks — transforms parlay betting from a mere gamble into a strategic game. Applying this method to big opportunities, like NFL and NCAA football division winners, adds an exciting and thoughtful dimension to sports betting. Currently, a parlay of all eight NFL Division winners can pay out upwards of $37k for every $10 spent. You don’t have to bet on just one outcome; bet all your favorable outcomes with a pool of money, and increase your probability of hitting.

 

Injury Insights | Star WRs & RBs

Marcus Galie
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Injury Insights | Star WRs & RBs

After a long hot summer, football is finally back. We are just 5 days away from kicking off the much anticipated 2023 NFL season, and for those of you still cramming in last minute fantasy football drafts, this article may be useful to you.

Since this is my first time writing, I will go ahead and introduce myself. My name is Marcus, and I am a podcaster for The Undropppables as well as working as a full time physical therapist living in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. My PT degree as well as two years of practice in the medical field allow me to serve as the “medical expert” for The Undroppables network, and I am here to share my knowledge of anatomy, injury, and recovery here with you.

With the season just around the corner, it is vital that you are securing players in your fantasy drafts who are reliable, durable, and efficient. After all, the best “ability” is “availability,” right? There are a few key players who have suffered training camp injuries, and I am here to tell you what to make of them in order to prepare you for your draft. Let’s start with the WR position first.

Cooper Kupp

Ah yes, everyone’s favorite PPR receiver. Cooper Kupp, the WR 1 for the LA Rams, suffered a hamstring strain a few weeks ago during camp. On Thursday, it was reported that Kupp had suffered a “set-back,” and that there is no timeframe for his return. So what do we know about hamstring injuries? On avereage, your grade I strains take anywhere from 1-4 weeks to recover and your grade II’s take sometimes up to 12 weeks. While Kupp suffered a grade I strain, his setback puts him in serious jeapordy for not only week 1, but also the first quarter of the season. Due to his age and his injury history, Kupp has a higher chance of re-injury during the season. Therefore, I would probably pass on Kupp in the first round this year.

Jerry Jeudy

Similar to his fellow WR Cooper Kupp, the projected Broncos WR1 Jerry Jeudy also suffered a hamstring strain, though his injury was a bit more severe (grade II). Return from a grade II hamstring strain can take anywhere from 4-12 weeks. Given his age, Jeudy does have a lower chance of re-injury once he returns to action. I expect the Broncos to be cautious with their young superstar, and I imagine he will probably be out the first 3-4 games. With that being said, I probably wouldn’t look to select Jeudy until later rounds of a redraft league (rounds 8, 9, 10).

Let’s switch gears to my personal favorite position… Running Back

Breece Hall

As we all know, Breece Hall suffered a torn ACL in October of 2022. Your typical ACL recovery program lasts about 9-12 months before returning to sport, which puts Hall right on track to start the season. Because Hall had some explosive measurables prior to his injury (40 time, vertical, broad jump), we can expect that he may look a little bit better than most anticipate. Generally speaking, the better or “stronger” you are prior to surgery, the better your prognosis is. With Dalvin Cook being added to the Jets backfield, I see Breece Hall dropping from a late 3rd / early 4th to an early 5th round selection. I would recommend selecting him at this spot and not thinking twice about setting him in your lineup every week. He should be healthy and ready to rock and roll for week 1.

Javonte Williams

Similar to Breece Hall, Williams also suffered a torn ACL in October of 2022. With a similar recovery timeline, Williams looks to be on track to play in week 1. While Williams is not quite as fast or explosive as Breece Hall, his running style actually may benefit him upon his return to action. A true down-hill runner, Williams relies less on side-to-side sharp cuts than most other running backs. Your ACL is important in providing stability in your knee with lateral movements, not as much straight-line sprinting. Depending on how quickly Williams can build confidence in his knee, we may see him return to form sooner rather than later. I would select Williams at his current 6th / 7th round ADP.

While most injury data supports that RB’s will produce much better in year 2 as opposed to year 1 following an ACL tear, I believe these two players may be able to break the mold and turn in solid RB2 seasons.

I hope this information helps! Happy drafting, and a happy return of the NFL season.

Shaping Your Roster | Fantasy Football Waiver Wire – Week 1

Derek Fuchs
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0
Shaping Your Roster | Fantasy Football Waiver Wire – Week 1

Support for Off The Top is brought to you by ​MANSCAPED™, the best in men’s below-the-waist grooming. MANSCAPED™ products are precision-engineered tools for your family jewels. In addition, MANSCAPED’s™ Performance Package is the ultimate men’s hygiene bundle! Join over 6 million men worldwide who trust MANSCAPED with this exclusive offer for you…. 20% off and free worldwide shipping with the code UND at manscaped.com. If my math is correct, that’s about 12 million balls.

This year, I was asked to help collaborate with Tommy Mo on our waiver wire articles at The Undroppables. The news comes from our dear friend – Mike Reedy – who is getting an excellent opportunity to write his content at another website, and we wish him all the best this year and his new adventure.

This series will discuss ways to shape your roster by allowing players to add off the waiver wire and who to drop to make room. We wanted to ensure we get things going even before the first week of NFL action, as fantasy football is an ever-changing landscape, and we already have some top candidates to add to your benches!

Excluding Sleeper from our rostership stats, their data looks to be updated later.

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)

Yahoo – 30% Rostered
ESPN – 15% Rostered

Jordan Love is the starter for the Green Bay Packers in his third year in the league. They open against the Chicago Bears, who allowed the 7th most fantasy points to the quarterback in 2022. This offense might surprise some and Week 1 might be our first look at that.

Sam Howell (Washington Commanders)

Yahoo – 22% Rostered
ESPN – 9% Rostered

Entering his second year, Sam Howell takes over Eric Bieniemy’s offense and starts with a great matchup. Arizona Cardinals look to be in full tank mode, and I expect Sam Howell to be a great Week 1 start for anyone streaming at the QB position. McLaurin and Dotson should receive plenty of targets from Howell to kick off the season.

Running Backs

Deon Jackson (Indianapolis Colts)

Yahoo – 33% Rostered
ESPN – 31% Rostered

Jonathan Taylor was placed on the PUP; he will be out for the first four weeks at a minimum. Because Deon Jackson was named the starter, and in an offense that will likely be run-heavy, you are getting an instant RB2 with upside now before the season starts.

Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Yahoo – 47% Rostered
ESPN – 46% Rostered

Making plays all preseason, if you were reading intently on Twitter from several people, Jaylen Warren is in a position to take over the workhorse role this year. Najee Harris looked slow and inefficient last year, mainly from an injury, but the changing of guard might have this year.

Wide Receivers

Nico Collins (Houston Texans)

Yahoo – 53% Rostered
ESPN – 58% Rostered

Collins is one of our favorite wide receivers this season, and seeing these roster stats is shocking. Is he the clear WR1 for a rookie QB who will throw a lot on a rebuilding team? His target competition is Robert Woods, who has yet to look the same recently, and Dalton Schultz, and I am trying to remember the last time a rookie QB featured their tight end. All targets are earned for sure, but competition is looking thin down in Houston.

Chase Claypool (Chicago Bears)

Yahoo – 4% Rostered
ESPN – 18% Rostered

Injury discount for Claypool, being sidelined most of this offseason. The Bears traded a very high draft pick for him last year. They will put him to use once he is healthy, and we know he can score TDs. He needs to stay healthy and prove his time in Pittsburgh wasn’t just a fluke.

Zay Jones (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Yahoo – 31% Rostered
ESPN – 31% Rostered

This offense will be explosive, and with the addition of Calvin Ridley, the hype went away from Zay. However, people need to remember that Zay did get paid this offseason. And they will use him on the outside with Ridley while Christian Kirk controls the slot position. Coming off a career year and is in the same offense, don’t sleep on Zay.

Tight Ends

Juwan Johnson (New Orleans Saints)

Yahoo – 38% Rostered
ESPN – 26% Rostered

I love Juwan, my sleeper candidate this year for the tight end to finish in the top 10. The former WR turned TE and gets an upgrade at the QB position. Derek Carr loves to throw to his tight ends as we saw with Darren Waller in Las Vegas. With opposing defenses focusing on Olave and the return of the Slant King Michael Thomas, expect Johnson to get looks often and early.

Kylen Granson (Indianapolis Colts)

Yahoo – 0% Rostered
ESPN – 0% Rostered

This might be our most profound find in the waiver wire in the history of The Undroppables. With Jelani Woods injured, Kylen Granson gets the start. The Colts will be against the Jaguars, which means this game could be a shootout. If you plan to stream at the TE position, here is your guy!

Drop Candidates

Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)

Yahoo – 85% Rostered
ESPN – 77% Rostered

I wrote about Anthony in my formula series, looking at rookies for redraft leagues. Anthony is incredibly talented, and his athleticism will be fun to watch. I would not feel comfortable starting him in Week 1. I’d be more comfortable starting with the candidates we mentioned at the start of this article.

I’ll keep this section short. We just drafted a lot of fliers, and we are hoping to find out more after Week 1. It seems like a cop-out, I know. I will assure you we will have some good names in our next article.

Good luck to everyone this season; check out our weekly rankings to help get your teams locked and loaded for this NFL season!

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