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Deebo Samuel | The Final Frontier of Undervalued WRs

Colby Jackson
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Deebo Samuel | The Final Frontier of Undervalued WRs

Every season, there is an argument between who’s going to be a new quarterback’s top receiver. In 2021, arguments raged on Twitter/X if Cooper Kupp, or Robert Woods was going to be the #1 option in L.A. In 2022, the masses on argued if Jerry Jeudy or Courland Sutton was going to be the #1 in Denver. However, in 2023 there hasn’t been this argument, but there probably should be one in San Francisco. I believe the Dynasty community has this dynamic wrong, and the market should correct itself by the end of the season.

If you haven’t guessed it by now, I am talking about Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk. The dynasty market currently has Aiyuk ranked as WR23 vs. Deebo at WR28, and I believe this is a mistake. There are 3 main reasons why I believe Samuel has fallen from grace as the WR6 just one year ago.

“The Running Back Glory Days are Over”

Kyle Shanahan, as well as Samuel, have made it clear that Deebo’s running back usage is not a priority in 2023. Many see this and see Samuel’s utility disappear in fantasy football, as 25% of his 2021 Fantasy points came from his 365 yards on the ground, alongside his 8 TDs. However, what is forgotten about that 2021 season is that Samuel put together one of the most dominant receiving seasons in recent memory.

Here is Samuel’s 2021 season vs. some of the best WR’s in Football

While I don’t believe Samuel will ever replicate his 2021 RB numbers, a zero in that department is also unlikely. Chalk and ESPN’s Mike Clay both have Deebo projected for roughly 250 rushing yards, and 2-3 TD’s. However, I believe that the rushing numbers are just a bonus. Samuel is a legit Superstar as a receiver in the NFL as long as he is healthy.

“The emergence” of Brandon Aiyuk

Aiyuk had his third year breakout in 2022, posting a 21% targets per route run,  a 1.91 YPRR, and a 80.9 PFF Receiving grade, which were all career highs. This was good for his first 1,000 yard season, and has vaulted him up to WR23 on KTC. While this is a good season, Aiyuk has played 3 seasons in the NFL but has not surpassed 2 YPRR once. Samuel on the other hand, has posted 3 seasons with about 2 YPRR (2019: 2.04, 2020:2.26*, 2021:2.98). We have to note that Samuel only ran 173 routes in 2020. I usually do not like to look at splits, as you are taking an already small sample size of an NFL season, and cutting it down even further. However, there was a notable difference between production for Aiyuk when Samuel was out.

While I wouldn’t put much stock in the without Samuel numbers, the numbers with Samuel on the field are concerning. 416 routes is very much a usable sample size, and those per route metrics give me even more confidence that Samuel will continue to be the number 1 option when healthy.

The QB Situation

While I am firmly in the camp that Brock Purdy is not a very good quarterback, he was pretty good in 2022. He posted nearly identical advanced metrics as Jimmy Garoppolo (Purdy finished at QB9 in EPA/CPOE composite, which is pretty decent at predicting next season’s EPA). In addition, Sam Darnold was actually pretty good in 2022 (5th in EPA/CPOE). I have full confidence that if worst comes to worst, Darnold would post average NFL numbers with the weapons in San Francisco.

Valuation

After looking at KTC graph history over the past 24 hours, I have come to the conclusion that after a player’s first three seasons, value gradually decreases over the long-term. Once value is lost, it is rare that it is gained back. However, there is one main exception to this rule. If you are extremely elite and a top top 12 option at the position (e.g.,Tyreek Hill or Cooper Kupp). Low-end WR2’s are not enough to move the needle for fantasy gamers as the age apex approaches. Names that come to mind are Tyler Lockett and Brandin Cooks. However, top 12 finishes can move the needle. Here is Mike Williams’ chart below. Before the 2021 season, Mike Williams ranged from WR50 to WR60, before jumping to the peak of WR15 during the season after a WR12 overall finish.

For context, that value jump is equivalent to the 2023 1.08 in SF. If you bought low on Williams prior to the 2021 season, you could have created value equivalent to the rookie 1.08 out of thin air. While this is certainly a bigger value increase than what is presently available with Samuel, Williams did only scored 15 PPG in his bounce back 2021 season, and has never been particularly efficient (His 2021 season has been his peak at 1.97 YPRR). Even if you take away all of Samuel’s rushing in 2021, he still would’ve finished with 16 PPG. Samuel also only scored 6 receiving TD’s vs Williams 9. Overall, I believe an 18 PPG season is very much in the range of outcomes with TD luck and some rushing attempts and would likely vault Deebo back into the top 15 in consensus dynasty rankings after the season.

The last step to determine if a player is undervalued is redraft rankings. Dynasty rankings often lag moves in Underdog ADP. Knowing this, we can use this to determine if a player is properly priced. Currently, Deebo is WR18 on Underdog, while Aiyuk is going at WR27.  Deebo looks undervalued in dynasty fantasy football (WR28), especially considering he is only 27 years old. Aiyuk looks properly priced, as he is currently WR23 on KTC and going just 4 spots behind in Underdog drafts. While Deebo certainly comes with injury risk, there are not many chances to buy a legit WR1 in his prime at WR28 prices. He is going around players such as Zay Flowers and George Pickens. While they are young, exciting players, their ADP is currently WR40 and WR35 on Underdog. Because of this, Deebo Samuel is a big upside bet at a cheap price.

Fantasy Redraft Formula – 2023 Rookie WR Edition

Derek Fuchs
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Fantasy Redraft Formula – 2023 Rookie WR Edition

EQUATION CONSTRUCTION

I wanted to develop a “formula” to help differentiate between players and help decide how to find the best players when drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.

Draft Capital – The higher the player is drafted in the NFL Draft, historically, that player is given the most excellent chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.

Opportunities – The NFL has limited snaps and options for players to touch the football (outside the quarterback and center). Players’ health and projected snaps/targets are evaluated here.

Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (wide receivers and quarterbacks) benefit greatly when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy.

Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athletes they were before the draft; don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion of the player.

2022 Rookie WR Review

An incredible draft class at the position. I was low on Garett Wilson and Christian Watson last year and learned my lesson. Drake London and Chris Olave were still hits, and players like Jahan Dotson and Alec Pierce had some great weeks.  All these players will still have big 2023 seasons, and some added players like Skyy Moore and George Pickens will look to take an even bigger step this year.

Draft Capital

Here are all the wide receivers from the 2023 Draft Class:

There are many names on that list, but to keep it simple for you this year, we can probably focus on the draft’s first three rounds. These names will have the best chance of contributing in Year 1 for their teams.  The other names are nice stashes for dynasty football leagues.

Opportunities

This will be the biggest factor for us; targets are earned, and this will be tough for rookies unless they are the only option to throw to.  Jordan Addison is starting to look like the second or third option in that Vikings’ offense.  Zay Flowers has gotten hype in a potential pass-heavy offense.  Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) might be the best wide receiver in this group, but he is behind studs DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.  Marvin Mims is the only player on this list that I can almost guarantee will be a top option.  Jerry Juedy is hurt and Courtland Sutton hasn’t been great since his injury.

Supporting Cast

The quality of the quarterback and the offense will be the biggest contributing factor for our young wide receivers.  Quentin Johnson and Zay Flowers get a boost in this regard, both with talented QBs and pass-heavy offenses.  Marvin Mims and JSN both get good QBs as well, but offenses might be more on the balanced side. Jordan Addison is a shining star in this category, as well as Rashee Rice.

Draft Profile

This year, they are a very talented group, with JSN being the “elite” prospect that many believe can dominate defenses for years.  But talented wide receivers are going into the sixth round this year, with Puka Nacua, Trey Palmer, and Kayshon Boutte.  I don’t think it was a top-heavy class, but some serious gems will come out of this draft class for years.

Results

Keeping it very simple, this equation led to only a handful of WRs that I would take in your redraft leagues in the draft:

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • Jordan Addison
  • Marvin Mims
  • Quentin Johnson
  • Zay Flowers

There are some players that I would watch as the season progresses to pick up off the waiver wire:

  • Rashee Rice
  • Jalin Hyatt
  • Michael Wilson
  • Trey Palmer
  • Puka Nacua

Fantasy Redraft Formula – 2023 Rookie RB Edition

Derek Fuchs
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0
Fantasy Redraft Formula – 2023 Rookie RB Edition

EQUATION CONSTRUCTION

I wanted to develop a “formula” to help differentiate between players and help decide how to find the best players when drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.

Draft Capital – The higher the player is drafted in the NFL Draft, historically, that player is given the most excellent chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.

Opportunities – The NFL has limited snaps and options for players to touch the football (outside the quarterback and center). Players’ health and projected snaps/targets are evaluated here.

Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (wide receivers and quarterbacks) benefit greatly when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy.

Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athletes they were before the draft; don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion of the player.

2022 Rookie RB Review

You win some, you lose some. I didn’t quite nail my 2022 running back predictions, but Breece Hall certainly would have finished in the RB1 topic if it wasn’t for the season-ending injury he received. We love to see some players like Dameon Pierce and Isiah Pacheco come through, and there were some solid weeks out of Rachaad White and James Cook at the end of the season. I did say to draft Kenneth Walker III and Tyler Allgeier last year in redrafts, though; KW3 was more obvious, but I was saying Allgeier should be drafted.

Draft Capital

Here are the running backs drafted in the 2023 NFL Draft:

The top choices right away are Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs, with both having first-round capital tied to them. I think both were drafted in good situations and will have an impact immediately. Zach Charbonnet was drafted high for a running back in the second round. The Seattle Seahawks already had Kenneth Walker III, but we know Pete Carroll likes to run the ball, so maybe both will have some value.

Opportunities

The clear workhorse in the group will be Bijan Robinson. The Falcons will want to run the ball, and drafting a running back 8th overall means you look to use them often right away. Jahmyr Gibbs will also have usage, most likely in the receiving game and between the 20s of the field.

Lots of players do have some direct paths to workhorse roles. Roschon Johnson, with the Bears, can get most of the touches if Khalil Herbert gets injured or underperforms. Devon Achane, Tank Bigsby, Tyjae Spears, and Kendre Miller have similar paths.

Supporting Cast

Gibbs is given a significant advantage with the supporting cast. He is in a great offense and one of the league’s best offensive lines. Devon Achane has the speed around him to have light boxes, and he has the speed to match his teammates.

Bijan Robinson has talent around him and a coach who wants to run the ball on every down. It’s hard not to think he also has an excellent supporting cast. Zach Charbonnet would be up here, but being in a running back by committee (RBBC) and a more pass-heavy offense, I wouldn’t say I like it unless they take over that role.

Draft Profile

A lot of talk about this class being good but not great. Bijan and Jahmyr were the elite talents, leading them to be highly drafted. I also like Devon Achane and Roschon Johnson, and Zach Charbonnet was a great prospect.

Result

This draft class is slightly cut and dry compared to last year’s. The top 2-3 RBs are probably the only ones I am drafting, and maybe others I am watching for waivers to see how their situations change.

Players I am Drafting in Redraft in Order

  1. Bijan Robinson
  2. Jahmyr Gibbs
  3. Zach Charbonnet (only if benches are deep)

Players I am Monitoring for Waiver Wire In Order

  1. Devon Achane
  2. Roschon Johnson
  3. Kendre Miller
  4. Tank Bigsby
  5. Tyjae Spears
  6. Evan Hull

The Watchlist | Drae McCray

Kyle Larson
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The Watchlist | Drae McCray

In pursuing fresh content, I’ve realized that the growing college fantasy space covers many topics. Whether it be instant reactions to the last week of games, betting tips, or waiver wire pickups. There are excellent resources for all three (recommending The Devy Dose if you’re looking at video content), but I strive to go deeper.

This is The Watchlist, not quite a waiver wire article, but a preview of players you should watch out for in games to see if they can elevate your squad. Most of the fantasy leagues I play in are Campus to Canton (C2C), so this will lean that way, but these players are likely just as interesting in CFF or CFF Dynasty.

Drae McCray – WR – Texas Tech

I’ve been advocating for drafting Drae McCray for the last month. I think he has an insane upside in college with one of the most pass-heavy offensive coordinators in the country. And I believe he has an elite NFL trait: his speed.

Here’s me talking about McCray on July 31st on The Devy Dose.

History

Let’s start with the offense. Zach Kittley’s air raid started at FCS Houston Baptist, where the Huskies ranked second in pass yards per game in 2019 and totaled 35 TDs. In a shortened 2020 season, Houston Baptist threw for 1,833 yards and 15 TDs in just FOUR GAMES. Following that ridiculous 2020 pace, Kittley joined Western Kentucky as their OC, where former Houston Baptist QB Bailey Zappe also transferred in. The pair lit up the world in 2021 as Zappe broke the single-season record for passing TDs and yards. Kittley moved to Texas Tech while Zappe went pro, and the Red Raiders didn’t take the massive jump many expected, but they saw steady progress. Per Campus2Canton, Kittley’s Texas Tech offense jumped from a 40% neutral situation pass rate before his arrival to a 60% neutral situation pass rate in his first season. This is a Red Raider offense willing to air the ball out and get WRs the ball in space.

Drae McCray perfectly fits the profile of a WR that you want to get out into an open space. McCray was a member of the 2020 recruiting class, where he signed with Austin Peay University. The COVID-19 pandemic greatly affected his recruitment, and there’s reason to believe he would have impressed if given the opportunity. In high school, McCray was an absolute track star. He ran a 10.33 (lightly wind-assisted) 100m dash and a 21.5 200m while finishing in the top 2 in every Florida 1A track event he competed in.

Present

This speed immediately translated onto the field at FCS Austin Peay, as McCray posted 784 yards on 53 receptions with 7 TDs as a true freshman. He showcased his yards after the catch (YAC) ability, accounting for 6.7 YAC. He didn’t slow down in 2022, either. His sophomore stat line saw a staggering 114 targets, of which he caught 76 (66.7%) for 1,022 yards and 9 TDs. He did even better after the catch, adding 8.1 YAC on average. McCray wasn’t just beating up on FCS DBs either; in his second college football game, McCray caught six passes for 87 yards against Ole Miss. Then, in 2022, he caught seven balls for 90 yards and 2 TDs against FBS Western Kentucky and finished his season with 12 receptions on 15 targets for 92 yards against Alabama in the Crimson Tide’s annual late-season tune-up game.

In addition, it isn’t just his speed that makes McCray a weapon with the ball in his hands. Per PFF, McCray led all FCS WRs in forced missed tackles with 25 on the season. Recruited out of HS as an RB, McCray is an actual weapon with the ball in his hands.

Following these two FCS seasons, McCray received P5 offers from several teams needing help. This list included Oregon, Colorado, Virginia Tech, and Maryland. However, Kittley’s offense and the ability to feature McCray enticed him to join the Red Raiders. Since joining Texas Tech, the young WR has received rave reviews, and with Texas Tech releasing their Week 1 depth chart over the weekend, he’s already earned a role as the starting H receiver.

Future

The one pause I have with McCray is his size. He’s not tiny by any means, but he measures in at either 5’9″ or 5’10”, depending on who you ask. The number of WRs who make it in the NFL at that height is slim. However, McCray’s speed and elusiveness align him with the other short kings who have made it in the NFL. Wan’Dale Robinson and Rondale Moore have been Day 2 NFL picks recently. McCray may not be as strong as Rondale, but he still makes men miss like Robinson and Moore do. In addition, the one superstar NFL WR under 5’10” is Tyreek Hill, proving that speed has no height constraints. While McCray would likely lose in a footrace against Cheetah, he would still be in the upper echelon of NFL WRs regarding speed.

I see Drae McCray as a super exciting Campus to Canton league pickup. He could light up the CFF side and offer exciting NFL potential if he does perform in the Big 12.

Fantasy Redraft Formula – 2023 Rookie TE Edition

Derek Fuchs
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0
Fantasy Redraft Formula – 2023 Rookie TE Edition

EQUATION CONSTRUCTION

I wanted to develop a “formula” to help differentiate between players and help decide how to find the best players when drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.

Draft Capital – The higher the player is drafted in the NFL Draft, historically, that player is given the most excellent chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.

Opportunities – The NFL has limited snaps and options for players to touch the football (outside the quarterback and center). Players’ health and projected snaps/targets are evaluated here.

Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (wide receivers and quarterbacks) benefit greatly when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy.

Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athletes they were before the draft; don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion of the player.

2022 Rookie TE Review

Looking at my article last year, I can improve, but I hit for the most part! I called Jelani Woods, who might have success in the later weeks; I mentioned going with Evan Engram instead of these rookies!  The one miss was Chigoziem Okonkwo, who finished the highest of the rookies and had some very nice finishes in the second half of the season. We can add that reflection to our 2023 analysis since this draft class has some tight ends.

Draft Capital

Here are the tight ends we can look at in the first three rounds of the 2023 NFL Draft:

We will most likely focus on the first two rounds of Tight Ends, except Brenton Strange, who will not only be buried on the depth chart but was most likely drafted for their upside that may develop into something.

The big focus will be on the first four names: Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer, and Luke Musgrave.  These players are projected to be their top TE on the depth chart, except Mayer. I’d imagine Mayer can eventually beat out Austin Hooper for the starting role. Luke Schoonmaker could also take over the starting role. I would be on the watch for waiver wires rather than looking to draft Schoonmaker.

Opportunities

As a perfect transition to the topic, looking at the tight ends that will be the starters will be key for this position. We know the landscape is rough for this position. Finding some players to start weekly consistently would provide incredible value to our rosters for taking these tight ends at their current average draft positions (ADP). Kincaid, LaPorta, and Musgrave become great later-round fliers if paired with some veterans (if your bench spots allow it).

Supporting Cast

When looking at the coaching staff and quarterbacks for each position, the players that stand out are Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta. Dalton gets to play with Josh Allen. That should be enough to convince us, right?  Along with a talented staff, Kincaid is a great option.

Sam LaPorta is also receiving passes from a great quarterback – Jared Goff.  The head coach for the Detroit Lions is a former Tight End.  Dan Campbell will be a great coach for him and immediately add a threat to this offense.

Michael Mayer and Luke Musgrave both have some question marks in this area.  Musgrave starts with Jordan Love, who has shown nothing yet in the NFL.  Mayer looks good on paper, but their snaps are what might hurt them.  They may be limited in how much they see the field in being a consistent starter in fantasy.

Draft Profile

This NFL draft class had several talented tight ends enter the league.  It might be the best TE class we have seen in years.  Kincaid is incredibly athletic, along with the other tight ends as well. I have no real issues with any of them as draft prospects; they all will have great NFL careers.

Results

In each part of our formula, Dalton Kincaid and Sam LaPorta are the two that stick out.  I think both are good options for the position because of the scarcity and the upside they provide. I would be okay with taking fliers on Luke Musgrave and Michael Mayer, but both seem like better stashes in dynasty leagues.  Watch for Luke Schoonmaker as the season progresses; he can win the starting role and be featured by an offense that likes to throw to the position.

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