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Jordan Addison Production Comp

Football Insights
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Jordan Addison Production Comp

The intention here isn’t necessarily to predict success at the next level. But rather, blending production, playstyle, size, etc., to help visualize what things could look like.

I will say this one is a high-end outcome if were trying to establish a range.

Let’s get it!

Wore a variety of hats throughout college and has the production to show it.

Jordan Addison worked from the slot in his first two seasons at Pitt, while his lone year as a Trojan saw >75% snaps out wide (PFF).

The “antithesis” of a one-dimensional pass catcher- this sentiment also translates to Addison’s physical size/traits.

Sheer production and versatility across multiple seasons, combined with some role-ambiguity at the next level reminded me of another accomplished power five receiver:

Feels like it’s been forever since the 2018 draft, where the Falcons selected Calvin Ridley 26th overall.

Ridley was originally drafted to complement then WR1 Julio Jones as a reliable second option for veteran QB Matt Ryan.

It was understood Ridley didn’t project as a dominant X at that time. However, throughout the draft cycle, he was perceived to be more than capable of bolstering an already established system via alignment/skillset versatility.

For a team valuing similar plug-and-play traits, Jordan Addison mirrors the same vibes.

Addison’s usage on screen plays, as well as success against man coverage, combine to help open things up for other pass catchers.

There are some concerns with physicality on the LOS, particularly how he’ll beat press. But Jordan Addison checks off numerous boxes as a potent number 2 or 3 option come Sundays.

In a questionable draft class littered with projects carrying uncertain “floors”, anyone snagging Addison towards the later part of round one acquires a wideout who gelled alongside Kenny Pickett and Caleb Williams.

Thanks for reading! Subscribe to my Substack for more analysis like this!

Under the Radar | 2023 WR Prospects to Watch Pt. 2

Chalk
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Under the Radar | 2023 WR Prospects to Watch Pt. 2

Trey Palmer

Chalk – WR13
ECR – WR19

Trey Palmer is a sleeper WR prospect with legit track speed that makes him a vertical threat every time the ball is snapped. Pair that with his ability to burst off the line and Palmer has the potential to make an impact in the NFL starting on day one. The Nebraska standout does not strictly rely on his speed as he possesses nuance to his game and can fake defenders to generate separation before he torches them downfield. On the other hand, his route running could use improvement and he will need to develop that once he is drafted. Given his raw athleticism, speed, and areas of development, Palmer is likely to hear his name called on day 3 which hopefully puts him on a team that can turn him into a reliable slot option.

Jonathan Mingo

Chalk – WR15
ECR – WR26

Jonathan Mingo is a smooth operator with good burst even though he is a bigger receiver. Mingo uses his combination of strength and quickness to break coverages and tack on yards after the catch. Where Mingo excels in short-area quickness and agility, his downfield speed lacks and he is also not known for making contested catches or high-pointing the ball. He may find his way onto the field early in his rookie year due to his willingness to lay down blocks in the running game which is valued in the NFL. If he lands on a team that predicates their offense on quick screens and jet sweeps, Mingo might be more than a sleeper.

Bryce Ford-Wheaton

Chalk – WR19
ECR – WR30

Bryce Ford-Wheaton may not have put up elite production at West Virginia but his size-speed combination and skill set makes him an intriguing sleeper heading into the NFL Draft. BFW profiles as a physical X who can run a diverse route tree and can make some of the most difficult contested catches. The former Mountaineer has the ability to high point the ball after boxing out defenders in traffic. He has also shown that he can track the ball well and adjust as needed. An explosive playmaker with elite speed and touchdown upside is the type of player you want to be throwing darts at late in rookie drafts. If he can develop at the next level, he can be a pleasant surprise for your dynasty teams.

Under the Radar | 2023 WR Prospects to Watch

Chalk
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Under the Radar | 2023 WR Prospects to Watch

Jayden Reed

Chalk – WR7
ECR – WR16

A sleepy prospect who has been comp’d to Stefon Diggs is being overlooked by many pundits but the NFL seems to have him on their target list. After an impressive week at the Senior Bowl, Reed is creeping up draft boards and could find himself drafted in the third round of the NFL Draft. The former Michigan State Spartan clears almost all of Jax Falcone’s anatomy thresholds and scored fairly well in JJ Zachiariason’s Z-Prospect model with decent projected draft capital, an age 19 breakout, dominator rating close to 30%, and solid receiving production numbers. You can say he broke out early because he played at small school Western Michigan but he balled after transferring to Michigan State, outplaying teammate Dee Eskridge who ended up being drafted in the second round. Reed may become a versatile chess piece in the NFL with an ability to pay outside, in the slot, and even returning kicks. Some say that he lacks elite speed but a speed score of 95 checks out and supports the notion that he possesses yards-after-catch ability.

Rashee Rice

Chalk – WR8
ECR – WR10

Rashee Rice is a late breakout WR but possesses good size. With that said, he ended up producing big numbers as a senior and enters the NFL Draft with momentum on his side as he set the SMU single-season receiving yards record with 1,355 last season. You could argue that this was a product of a spread offense but Rice has improved each year as a collegiate WR and should continue to develop in the pros. Rice has shown to be a good route runner but some have questioned his route tree. He may have dispelled those concerns during his Pro Day which received attention from scouts. The former Mustang has good athleticism for his size and has shown to be problematic for defenders after the catch, similarly to Brandon Aiyuk. Rashee has also been comp’d to Chris Godwin so the potential for NFL success is evident.

A.T. Perry

Chalk – WR12
ECR – WR17

A.T. Perry is one of Jax Falcone’s favorites in this WR class and after running his numbers through the Anatomy framework I can see why. Perry is a prototypical X at 6’4″ who plays up to his size and excels at contested catches with a nice catch radius and basketball background. This should provide him upside in the red zone once he hits the pros. Although the natural size and talent is there, he wasn’t an early producer which has been a knock on his analytical profile. Where he lacks in separation and nuance to his game, Perry makes up for it with his speed and burst which is supported by a 9.23 RAS score.

Under the Radar | 2023 RB Prospects to Watch

Chalk
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Under the Radar | 2023 RB Prospects to Watch

Sean Tucker

Chalk – RB4
ECR – RB12

Sean Tucker is one of the more exciting running backs in this class but still isn’t getting the respect he deserves. A player who has breakaway speed and the ability to take it to the house on any given play. He can become a three-down bell cow as he can play between the tackles and possess decent hands out of the backfield, although he is mainly suited for screen passes versus running routes. When you have an athletic big back with competitive toughness, it is not a player to sleep on. Tucker’s best season in college yielded almost 1,500 rushing yards and 12 TDs so we know he’s a major producer. There are some questions on whether he has it all together to make an immediate impact as the Syracuse standout lacks in pass protection. Regardless, he’s an auto-select in the 2nd round of your Superflex rookie drafts as he’s projected to be a 4th round pick but should add excitement to his next team’s backfield.

Kendre Miller

Chalk – RB5
ECR – RB8

Kendre Miller enters the NFL Draft after finishing his junior year at TCU. The former Horned Frog exploded in 2022 rushing for nearly 1,400 yards and getting named as a semifinalist for the Doak Walker Award (which is given to the nation’s top running back). Although his receiving numbers project him to be an early-down runner, Miller boasts impressive contact balance and vision which will translate well at the next level. With 21 carries of 15 or more yards, Miller ranked 10th in the country and is being slept on as a running back with big play ability. Miller also forced 70 tackles in 2022, evidencing his ability to bounce off defenders. Miller was unable to participate in the Combine but this might be a good thing as he continues to be overlooked by many. With that said, the consensus mock draft big board projects Miller to be a 4th round pick which may provide him the opportunity to make an immediate impact.

Chase Brown

Chalk – RB10
ECR – RB14

Chase Brown enters the NFL after 5 collegiate seasons, which is a big knock on him, but he is still primed for success as a pro. Any player that rushes for over 1,800 yards at a Division I school deserves serious attention. After blowing up the Combine with incredible testing numbers, Brown is now looking like a solid draft pick who boasts legit track speed. With ability to add yards after contact and run sweet wheel routes out of the backfield, Brown might be able to find himself in a three-down role at some point in his NFL career. Brown will need to work on plays between the tackles to earn goal-line opportunities which can limit his touchdown upside. He should make up for that with his soft hands and receiving chops.

Money Makers and Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2022 – Week 18)

Michael Reedy
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Money Makers and Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2022 – Week 18)

I want everyone to take a brief moment of silence for Damar Hamlin. It is horrible what happened to someone so young on the playing field. I am hoping he pulls through and follows this situation daily.

With that said, Life must also go on. We can hope for the best for him and continue with whatever we need to do with our jobs and lives.

So please take that moment to wish him the best. Then take another moment to hug a loved one, call someone you care about, and tell them how much you love them. After you have done this, remember to make the most of every moment you have. Enjoy your time with family and friends, and keep moving forward.

NOTE: Please remember I will be running a playoff challenge jointly with Ride Hard Breathe Easy again to support this charity. We would love to have you play. If you would like to participate, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:

💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations

💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations

💰 Money Makers

Quarterbacks

Tom Brady

Brady and the Buccaneers have started to come alive in the past three weeks. Brady has two games with three touchdowns in two of the last three games. In Week 17, he exploded for his best season game, passing 432 yards and three touchdowns. The Buccaneers play the Falcons in Week 18. The Falcons give the tenth most fantasy points to the opposing team’s quarterbacks. This looks like an excellent tune-up game for the playoffs.

$6,400 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel

NOTE: There is a risk with Buccaneers players being sat this week. The matchup is excellent for the passing game, though, so I am writing about it.

Kirk Cousins

The Vikings play the Bears in week 18. The Bears give the eighth-most fantasy points to the opposing team’s quarterbacks. The Vikings and Bears played in week 5. Cousins had a great game that week, passing for 296 yards and a touchdown and rushing for 4 yards and a touchdown. In the last three games, each quarterback to play the Bears has scored three touchdowns. The Vikings want to win this game and move to 13-4.

$6,500 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel

Brock Purdy

Purdy has been completely relevant since taking over as the Niners’ quarterback. Purdy has passed for two touchdowns in 5 straight games. In Week 18, he plays the Cardinals, who give up the ninth most fantasy points to the opposing team’s quarterbacks. Purdy has a very high floor in a game the Niners want to win, and the Cardinals might just quit. He sure looks purty in Week 18.

$5,700 on DraftKings
$6,900 on Fanduel

Other quarterbacks for Week 18

Mike White

$5,300 on DraftKings
$7,300 on Fanduel

Daniel Jones

$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler

Ekeler has been fantastic this season. Ekeler has seven straight weeks of double-digit fantasy scores and scored a touchdown in 6 out of 7 games. He has scored four touchdowns in the last two games combined. In Week 18, the Chargers are playing the Broncos. The Broncos give the ninth most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Running backs have scored double-digit fantasy points six times in the last four games against the Broncos.

$8,900 on DraftKings
$9,400 on Fanduel

Cam Akers

The Seahawks give up the third most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. The Rams play the Seahawks in Week 18. Akers has three straight games of double-digit fantasy points and has reached double-digit fantasy scores in 4 out of the last five games. The Rams’ run game seems revived, and Akers looks healthy. Great spot to plug him in this week and watch him ram into the end zone.

$6,200 on DraftKings
$7,300 on Fanduel

Zack Moss

Zach Moss has averaged 17 touches per game for the Colts in the last three games. He has 220 yards over this three-game span. The Colts play the Texans in Week 18. The Texans give up the most fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Running backs average 5.2 yards per carry against the Texans. Six different running backs have scored double-digit fantasy points in the past four games against the Texan’s defense. This is a complete matchup play, but one that will pay off.

$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel

Other Running backs for Week 18

Dalvin Cook

$7,300 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel

Christian McCaffrey

$9,300 on DraftKings
$10,000 on Fanduel

Najee Harris

$6,100 on DraftKings
$7,200 on Fanduel

Wide Receivers

Marquise Brown

The Cardinals play the Niners in Week 18. The Niners give up the sixth most fantasy points to the opposing team’s wide receivers. The Niner has been giving up massive amounts of fantasy points to wide receivers over the past five weeks. Last week Davante Adams had seven receptions, 153 yards, and two touchdowns against this Niners team. I like Brown this week. Brown had a 23% target share in Week 17. He saw nine targets which he turned into six receptions for 61 yards. I like him and Greg Dortch in Week 18.

$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,800 on Fanduel

Mike Evans

In Week 17, Evans saw 12 targets which he turned into ten receptions, 207 yards, and three touchdowns. He finally hugely broke his touchdown drought. In Week 18, the Buccaneers play the Falcons and give up the ninth most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. Wide receivers averaged 12 receptions, 157 yards, and a touchdown against the Falcons. Evans and Chris Godwin are good plays, as the Buccaneers want another win.

$7,400 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel

Jakobi Meyers

Meyers has 12 receptions, 131 yards, and two touchdowns in the last two games. He leads the Patriots with a 22.3% target share and a 30.7% share of the air yards. The Bills give up the 7th most fantasy points to opposing teams’ wide receivers. The Patriots will need to throw the ball to stay in this game. The games have meaning to both teams so we will see action and lots of it. The slot is where it is at for the Patriots against the Bills.

$5,100 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel

Other Wide Receivers for Week 18

Drake London

$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,500 on Fanduel

Terry McLaurin

$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel

Chris Godwin

$7,200 on DraftKings
$7,500 on Fanduel

Tight Ends

George Kittle

In the last three games, Kittle has five touchdowns. That is because Purdy to Kittle is great. With  Purdy at the helm, Kittle has 21 targets, 14 receptions, 256 yards, and five touchdowns over the past two games. The Niners play the Cardinals, and the Cardinals give up the second most fantasy points to opposing teams’ tight ends. Kittle leads the Niners with Purdy as the quarterback with a 20.4% target share. In addition, he is heavily involved as a downfield target with 25% of the air yards. This week, you cannot get a better tight-end play in the main slate.

$6,000 on DraftKings
$7,600 on Fanduel

Tyler Higbee 

With Baker Mayfield at quarterback, Higbee dominates the Rams’ targets. He has a 28.6% target share for the Rams, with Mayfield at quarterback. He leads the Rams with receiving touchdowns during this time with 3. He is an excellent volume-based player.

$4,400 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel

Other Tight Ends for Week 18

Tyler Conklin

$3,600 on DraftKings
$5,100 on Fanduel

Dallas Goedert

$4,900 on DraftKings
$6,200 on Fanduel

💔Heart Breakers

Quarter Backs

Justin Herbert

The Chargers play the Broncos in Week 18. The Broncos are good at defending the pass. Only Mahomes has had massive games against the Broncos. Herbert hasn’t scored more than 20 fantasy points in standard scoring since Week 12. With the lousy matchup, things haven’t been great. This is an Ekeler day.

Aaron Rodgers

Last week many people thought Rodger would be fantastic. This week he has the best matchup possible playing against the Lions. But do not get sucked into this. Rodgers does not have a game this season where he has passed for 300 yards. Rodgers hasn’t surpassed 240 yards since Week 9. He hasn’t had a 20 points fantasy score yet this season. Horrible play, even in a great matchup.

Nick Foles

I am sure I don’t have to tell you to avoid Foles this week. Foles has a combined 224 yards and four interceptions with no touchdowns over the past two games he has played. He has also been sacked nine times over these two games. It sounds like I am telling you to play the Texans’ defense; that is what I am doing. Foles is a heartbreaker, but that Texans defense looks like a money-maker.

Running Backs

James Conner

I would be willing to bet money that Conner will surpass 20 fantasy points. It will be tough. The Cardinals are playing the Niners, and the Niners give up the fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. Conner managed 12 fantasy points against the Niners in Week 11, and I would expect that type of game from him in Week 18. I wouldn’t pay for him in DFS

Brian Robinson

The Cowboys are tough against the run. The Cowboys give up the second-fewest points to opposing teams running backs. Robinson had a great matchup last week and only managed 87 yards on 24 carries. This week will be really bad for the Commander’s run game.

Devin Singletary

The Bills play the Patriots in Week 18. The Patriots give up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing teams running backs. In Week 13, Singletary scored 11.1 fantasy points against this same Patriots’ defense. He needed a touchdown to break the double-digit barrier. Therefore, he is a touchdown-dependent running back for Week 18.

Wide Receivers

Mike Williams

Williams has been somewhat up and down this season. In Week 18, he plays against the most brutal defense for wide receivers to score fantasy points against, the Broncos. I am out on the Chargers’ passing game this week. Austin Ekeler will feast, and Williams will have four receptions for 70 yards type of game.

Tyreek Hill

Hill may be the best wide receiver in the league. However, this week he is playing with a third-string quarterback and against a Jets defense that gives up the second-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers. Hill will find a way to be involved, but I wouldn’t place my DFS money on a big day here.

Rams Wide Receivers

The continuous theme for this season has been playing a running back against the Texan’s defense and not playing a quarterback or wide receivers against the Texans’ defense. It’s just too easy to run on this defense. Factor in Ram’s wide receivers left on the field is not very good; Baker Mayfield is the new quarterback, and the fact that they are playing for nothing, and this avoids all of them.

Tight Ends

Dalton Schultz

Dallas has a playoff spot locked up. The Commanders are insanity to happen to get in. Factor those things with the fact that the Commanders are tough against passes to the middle of the field. The Commanders are the fourth toughest defense against tight ends. George Kittle is the only tight end to exceed 20 fantasy points against this defense. Only three tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy days against this defense this season. I would expect Schultz to be meh.

Logan Thomas

Do you know who else is good against tight ends? The Dallas defense. They have only given up one double-digit fantasy day to a tight end all season. So it’s unlikely that Thomas will have a decent day against the Cowboys’ defense.

Good luck this week!

Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.

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