Guys, I have to come clean. I made a dumb mistake last week. I was using multiple data sources and made a formatting error, and long story short, my pass-to-rush ratio data was flat-out incorrect. It’s not even an even split. To avoid a mix-up like this happening again, I am just going to use Fantasy Points Data moving forward.

The good news is that the Pass-to-Rush Ratio was much higher in Week 1 than I had indicated. There were 43% more passing plays than running plays.

The bad news is that it went down in Week 2. Passing plays dropped by 9%.

The worst news is that we’re down 17 passing TDs relative to the first two weeks of last season (which was down from the year prior).

So, if making a very public mistake isn’t bad enough, the fear of an increasing run rate is starting to look like a trend, which I was hoping not to see. This was one of the more significant concerns we contemplated in Chapter 1. What’s happening?

The Macro

The cat-and-mouse game between OCs and DCs has gotten more nuanced on the defensive side. OCs are taking the cheese and running the ball when that’s precisely what the defenses want them to do—run less efficient plays (and offenses). 

Everyone trying to find what’s wrong with offenses thinking they’ll find it in the numbers needs to account for defenses showing one look and changing to others. It’s not as simple as “success vs. [look].”

🧵 (from someone who doesn’t know anything)

— Ben Gretch (@YardsPerGretch) September 18, 2024

In short, running the ball seems like a reactionary waving of the white flag by perplexed OCs and confused QBs. Oh, you’re going to take my big plays away? Okay, we’ll take our 4-yard gains on 15-play drives and hope we don’t commit a turnover or a penalty. Defenses are daring offenses to thread multi-play 70-yard needles and surprise(!) field goals are way up as those drives stall.  

TL;DR – Defenses have the advantage right now against old-school offenses. Everyone is talking about play action and pre-snap motion, and rightfully so. Still, Ben gets to the heart of why that’s been so successful for the Shanahan and McVay disciples – my interpretation, in short – they’re making defenses react instead of reacting to the trickier defenses. 

I hope I was correct in Chapter 1 and that the pendulum swings back toward more pass attempts, play volume, and touchdowns as the season progresses. But if it doesn’t, and we’re in for a run-heavy season, how should we manage our dynasty rosters?

It’s only been two weeks, and we don’t want to overreact. I’m not here to provide definitive answers but to give you some questions as food for thought and opine in definitive terms. 

1. Should we be starting more RBs in our flex spots? 

2. Should we be spending most of our FAAB on Running Backs?

This depends, but generally, I think this is prudent. I also think the answer to this one has always been yes, but now it’s for a different reason. 

3. Is play action going to become more effective? 

It’s always been a hack, but I think there’s a solid case to be made that it already has…

🎓Klint Kubiak has the answer sheet🎓

47 points Week 1
44 points Week 2 pic.twitter.com/XzZMABTHTd

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 16, 2024

4. Should we stop trading running backs for wide receivers?

In Dynasty, I don’t think so. In Redraft this year, maybe think twice? 

5. Should we start trading lower-tiered WRs for more RBs?

Like #2, I think the answer has always been yes. But now, again, it may be for a different reason. Instead of getting rid of roster-clogging WR5s, and waiting for RB opportunity windows, we might just be looking for a floor in those 3rd and 4th flex spots until the scoring comes back.

6. Should we value top-tiered WRs more in a league that runs more and passes less?

I think the answer is yes. If wide receivers are generally devalued, the top-end guys become more valuable. It’s been like the tight end position since the Gronk/Kelce era began. There’s a handful of guys you want, followed by a sea of sameness. 

For now, these are all just theories and musings. I believe in Dynasty, we’re still in “zoom out and wait-and-see mode.” My only action item is to focus your Faab dollars on RB and perhaps trim the fat at other positions to acquire more RBs. This is a dynasty best practice regardless, and you can still flip them for picks if your teams are too redundant when they get their windows of opportunity. 

If this is how things will go, there will be a strong RB class in 2025. 

The Micro

I promised WR talk last week, and that’s what you’ll get!

Nico Collins – Watching that Sunday night game, I regretted not being more bullish on Nico. After a quiet first couple of years in the league and a more pronounced emergence following the Tank Dell injury in 2023, I felt skeptical about the late breakout tied to a franchise-changing QB. Through two weeks, he has looked nothing short of an absolute monster. He’s made several clutch and ridiculous grabs at different levels of the field, and his underlying metrics show strength. Nico runs a route on over 85% of the team’s dropbacks; he’s got 46% of the team’s air yards (absurd considering his running mates), .257 targets per route run, a ridiculous 3.8 yards per route run (somehow up from last year’s “unsustainable” number). He’s been Stroud’s first read on over 33% of dropbacks, leading the league in receiving. That’s a long way of saying what’s evident now… he’s elite. 

Tank Dell – Don’t worry, I still have a crush on Tank Dell, and given they’ve got one of the OCs and QBs that I still have faith in, I think Tank will eat. He was also one drop of a slightly off-target pass from having a good Week 2. Those plays will come. Dell is lining up in the slot about 29% of the time through two weeks, which I think is a healthy number. His Expected Fantasy Points per game (per Fantasy Points) are more than double his current 5.6. This is because his Air Yard Share is an excellent 30%. As importantly, he’s still running 80% of the routes, even with Diggs in town. Better days are ahead for Tank Dell. 

Rashid Shaheed & Chris Olave – Are we sure Olave is the #1 in New Orleans? That question probably comes off as too much of a hot take, and we’re still pretty sure, but the question was much more absurd two weeks ago than it is as of this writing. Through two games:

They haven’t been in any real battles yet; it’s been two blowouts.

Malik Nabers – If you follow this website, you know our collective fondness for Malik Nabers. Jax Falcone has been leading the charge since January, but let’s have fun with his metrics anyway! He has run a route on over 93% of NY’s dropbacks. His Air Yard Share is 56%! He has commanded over 35% of the team’s targets, averaging .337 targets per route run, and get this: he has been the first read 50% of the time! Despite Daniel Jones’s situation, Jax was right all along. Malik is too good to fail. His team knows it, and now you do, too. 

Chris Godwin – We’ve seen him be the #2 in scoring WR in fantasy before, so we’ve known the upside was there, but after a year in excellent player purgatory (banished to the outside), one of our new favorite OCs, Liam Coen, has brought the prodigal WR home to his ideal role as a big, athletic slot. Thus far, he’s run 65% of his routes from the slot. Get this: his first downs per route run number is .27! For comparison, Nico Collins and Malik Nabers, who we just gushed over, are sitting at .18 (excellent!) and .12 (very good!), respectively. He’s getting peppered with .37 TPRR and has a 36% Air Yard Share. Expect some regression and the good times to keep rolling—Godwin’s back to being a monster. 

Jaxon Smith-Njigba – After a disappointing rookie year, I reluctantly attributed it to a bad offensive situation under Shane Waldron (don’t get me started on the Bears right now). Then Week 1 happened (two targets, two receptions, 19 yards), and I began to get nervous. Then Week 2 happened, AND HE TOTALLY REDEEMS HIMSELF! Through 2 weeks, his aDOT is at a very healthy 9.83 (because they started using him downfield). He got 16(!) targets in Week 2, 12 receptions, and 117 yards.

His YPRR is sitting at 2.26, his target share is at 26%, and his TPRR is now at a very happy .3. I don’t place too much weight on aDOT alone, but that’s what is most significant here. After teams misused him at or near the line of scrimmage during his rookie season, seeing him get work downfield and thrive confirmed that we didn’t miss badly on him as a prospect.

Quentin Johnston – Speaking of prospects we might have missed on… When I was geeking out on stats Monday, I noticed QJ, the biggest bust of the 2023 WR class, actually had some decent underlying metrics. Tuesday morning, I fired off a half-joking, half-serious tweet. Little did I know it would become the most viral (for me) tweet I’ve ever concocted. 

I am reluctantly here to inform you that Quentin Johnston is in the Goldilocks zone of underlying metrics:

82% route participation ✅
23% target share ✅
.27 tprr ✅
2.17 yprr ✅
11.5 aDOT ✅
14.5 fppg ✅

I’m adding. I’m making offers. I’m scared.

— Joe Kuvetakis 🚫 (@Dynasty_JoeFF) September 17, 2024

The urge to tinker is strong, particularly after Week 1. We got a few things right, but there was so much we were wrong about.

Indeed, we must react to the new reality, but how much of Week 1 was “real.” You may have thought your scores were low. You are not alone.

THE MACRO

Compared to Week 1 last year:

• Play Volume was down 15%!
• Pass Volume was down 18.5%!
• Run Volume was down 11%
• The Pass to Rush Ratio went from 1.104 to 1.008.

So it seems like RBs smashed, but the run volume was down. At least in Week 1, the ratio got closer to even than we’ve grown accustomed to.

Is this some cataclysmic change in the way fantasy should be played? Are our WR-heavy teams dust? Should we tinker?!

What seems more likely to me is a) the preseason has been condensed and, as a result, b) passing games aren’t where teams want them to be yet, so c) teams relied on their running games in Week 1 more than we’ve grown accustomed to.

Of course, offenses may be adapting to the increased number of 2-high looks and lighter linebackers and have determined that running the football more frequently is the better way to play against modern defenses.

I, for one, do not think that’s the case. After all, we didn’t see any RBs go in Round 1 of the 2024 draft. Then again, there was a lot more money spent on free-agent RBs this offseason than I can remember in recent history. Maybe it was just a weak RB class.

Stay open-minded and prepared to make probabilistic bets in the new reality, but make sure that reality is real.

Bigger Picture — Effective passing games have proven to be more efficient overall. I’m zooming out and expecting the bigger-picture trend to continue.

Prepare to pivot! You must guess right to win in this game — not just on players but leaguewide trends — because that dictates roster construction and capital allocation. So, if we’re making educated guesses, part of that education is noting that in Week 1, 2024, the pass/run ratio was near even. It’s not a trend yet, but keep an eye on it.

THE MICRO

(Due to the last section, I want to focus on running backs this week. The WR stats are generally flukier than RBs in a one-week sample, and I want to see more.)

Bucky Irving had nine carries for 62 yards, along with three catches. I’m a Rachaad White Truther, through and through, but there’s no denying Bucky looked good. Most of this production came when the Bucs had this game well under control, but it was hard not to notice his short area burst and even harder not to see him carving out a more significant share of the rushing workload.

Jerome Ford’s six receptions were also noteworthy. Were they a function of an inept QB and offense? Yes. Do I care? No. It feels like an excellent play until Chubb returns (or until they hand Jameis the keys to the offense).

Jaleel McLaughlin out-carried Javonte Williams. An unexpected development. He also had three receptions (and a lost fumble). I’m not prepared to call him the 1A yet, but I am interested.

Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears may be “interchangeable,” but Pollard did the lion’s share of the work and looked good doing it. I sadly expect this to continue.

The same goes for Zack Moss and Chase Brown. (still sad)

Ty Chandler managed to get a decent amount of work, even with Aaron Jones in town. Eight carries and three receptions can pay the bills in the flex, particularly in deeper leagues. Flex appeal with contingent upside will always get my attention.

Tank Bigsby looked like a different guy. I don’t know how much we can rely on him week to week, but the contingency-based upside is there now.

The Miami backfield was interesting. Mostert looked… 32 years old. I did not expect to see that much of Jeff Wilson, but he looked like his reliable self. Both Mostert and De’Von Achane dealt with some in-game injuries (though both returned to action).

What tantalized me most, though, regarding running backs, was Achane’s usage. He had seven receptions and was often split out wide or playing from the slot with Mostert on the field! We are too low on him if he continues to be an explosive RB/WR hybrid. I took him in both startups I did this offseason and got him on 13% of my BBM teams – which feels light. Permission to get excited granted!

I’ll be back next week and ready to talk WR. Good luck this weekend, stay open-minded, and follow me on Twitter @Dynasty_JoeFF.