Home Blog Page 28

Trimming Your Roster – (Fantasy Football 2022 – Week 2)

Derek Fuchs
-
0
Trimming Your Roster – (Fantasy Football 2022 – Week 2)

Support for Trimming Your Roster is brought to you by ​MANSCAPED™, the best in men’s below-the-waist grooming. MANSCAPED™ products are precision-engineered tools for your family jewels. MANSCAPED’s™ Performance Package is the ultimate men’s hygiene bundle! Join over 6 million men worldwide who trust MANSCAPED with this exclusive offer for you…. 20% off and free worldwide shipping with the code: UND at manscaped.com. If my math is correct, that’s about 12 million balls.

I am changing this year’s series with the sponsorship of Manscaped, so this year we will be trimming up our rosters to ensure we are adding value to our teams each week and maximizing each roster spot. Pair this series up with Mike Reedy‘s Untangling the Wire, and you should have success this year for sure!

James Cook (RB – Buffalo Bills)

Rostership Percentages:
Yahoo – 67% Ownership
ESPN – 76% Ownership
Sleeper – 84% Ownership

With only three total snaps in the game, he quickly went into the dog house after fumbling on his only carry. With Devin Singletary and Zack Moss handling a lot of the work, including several catches for both, it looks like Cook might have to earn opportunities back. Let him earn them while on the waiver wire and pick up Rex Burkhead or Kenneth Gainwell.

Kadarius Toney (WR – New York Giants)

Rostership Percentages:
Yahoo – 70% Ownership
ESPN – 83% Ownership
Sleeper – 77% Ownership

All this talent, but only seven snaps that led to little production. Very low on the depth chart and concerns coming out of training camp; we hope he can get back to targets with Wan’Dale Robinson hurt now. There are a ton of wide receivers for the waiver wire to pick up this week, so if you are looking to make a move, no one can blame you for dropping Toney.

Mike Gesicki (TE – Miami Dolphins)

Rostership Percentages:
Yahoo – 42% Ownership
ESPN – 77% Ownership
Sleeper – 75% Ownership

As fantasy managers, we hope things don’t change too much in the offseason. Unfortunately for Mike Gesicki, everything changed. With limited snaps and even fewer routes run, Gesicki is no longer being used as a wide receiver but now as a traditional tight end, which is unsuitable for him. So look for other options to stream if you were hoping that Mike was a weekly starter.

Just remember that this is only one week. Championships are won starting now with the waiver wire! Please follow me on Twitter for all Redraft advice and my weekly articles at The Undroppables!

Untangling the Waiver Wire (Fantasy Football 2022 – Week 2)

Michael Reedy
-
0
Untangling the Waiver Wire (Fantasy Football 2022 – Week 2)

Week 1 for the 2022 season is in the books and it was a surprising Week 1. Dak Prescott got hurt, which is probably the most significant storyline from the week. A few guys I was touting in the offseason looked pretty good.

I am so happy the season has started. If you are reading this, pay special attention to anything I label NOTE, seriously, it will help you. Players in the bullets you may not want to add, but add them to your watch list at the very least.

NOTE: If you are new around here this column refers to players rostered in under 50% of Yahoo, ESPN, and Sleeper Leagues. Sleeper leagues are specifically for redraft. Sleeper measures dynasty and redraft rostership separately. Remember sleeper leagues even in redraft tend to have longer benches.

Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz

Wentz opened the season throwing for 313 yards and 4 passing touchdowns. We had questions about how he might perform for Washington. Wentz targeted 10 different players in the game, spreading the ball around nicely.

13% rostered on Yahoo
16% rostered on ESPN
19% rostered on Sleeper
15% Free Agent Budget

Marcus Mariota

Mariota rushed for 72 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries. He also passed for 215 yards. People don’t like him as a real quarterback, but I have utilized him well as a fantasy quarterback. If you are needy, pay attention to Mariota. Mariota utilized his wide receivers well, completing 12 of 15 passes to that position.

9% rostered on Yahoo
3% rostered on ESPN
17% rostered on Sleeper
8% Free Agent Budget

Jameis Winston

Winston threw for 269 yards and 2 touchdowns on Sunday. He also ran for another 9 yards, which was nothing to write home about. But, the Saints won the game, Winston’s QB rating was 111, he threw zero interceptions. If you were not in on Winston in the preseason, you still have a chance to add him now.

46% rostered on Yahoo
12% rostered on ESPN
51% rostered on Sleeper
15% Free Agent Budget

Other quarterbacks to consider if you are desperate:

  • Ryan Tannehill – 266 yards 2 TDs
  • Baker Mayfield – 235 yards TD
  • Matt Ryan – 352 yards TD

Running Backs

NOTE: James Robinson is rostered in 58% of Yahoo leagues and would be my top waiver add if available at running back.

Jeff Wilson Jr.

There is competition for carries from Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance, but with Elijah Mitchell most likely to missing serious time, Wilson becomes a potential great addition as the primary running back for the Niners. He only had 22 yards rushing in Week 1 but would become the primary ball carrier at least for Week 2. With the injury news confirming his extended absense, move Wilson up to a top waiver target.

16% rostered on Yahoo
3% on ESPN
19% on Sleeper
20% Free Agent Budget

Isiah Pacheco

Pacheco had 12 carries for 62 yards and a touchdown in garbage time for the Chiefs. He is clearly the back up to Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

31% rostered on Yahoo
17% on ESPN
39% on Sleeper
5% Free Agent Budget

Rex Burkhead

Sexy Rexy or unsexy Rexy which probably suits him better, carried the ball 14 times for 40 yards and saw 8 targets in the passing game in Week 1. His 8 targets were the second most on the team behind only Brandin Cooks. That was 22% target share in Week 1. Unsexy has proved to produce when given a chance and healthy in the past. He does a little bit of it all. I like him.

13% rostered on Yahoo
17% on ESPN
14% on Sleeper
8% Free Agent Budget

Other running backs to consider if you are desperate:

  • Kenneth Gainwell – got the goal line work and was the pass catching RB
  • Khalil Herbert – got all the goal line work
  • Dontrell Hilliard – 5 touches, 69 yards, 2 TDs (watch his touches go up)
  • Zack Moss – 6 targets (it feels so dirty writing Zack’s name, almost like porn)

Wide Receivers

Curtis Samuel

Samuel is a player I am excited to see healthy. He runs, he catches, he scores, he fumbles. He literally filled the stat sheet in every category in Week 1. With 4 carries for 17 yards, 8 receptions for 55 yards and a touchdown on 11 targets. That is a 27% target share the most on the Commanders, formerly the WFT, formerly the name we shall not mention. I am happy to see Curtis healthy and playing great, add him.

5% rostered on Yahoo
8% on ESPN
12% on Sleeper
15% Free Agent Budget

Robbie Anderson

All I heard all off season was DJ Moore, DJ Moore, DJ Moore since Baker Mayfield has ended up with the Panthers. Guess what Robby, or Robbie, or how ever you spell his name is the guy who benefited MORE Week 1 (see what I did there?). Anderson saw 30% target share. He had 5 receptions for 102 yards and a TD on 8 targets. Yes, for sure add Robby NOW, right now!.

11% rostered on Yahoo
37% on ESPN
16% on Sleeper
15% Free Agent Budget

Jarvis Landry

Landry developed a rapport with Winston in the off season. He saw a 26% target share on Sunday, leading to 9 targets for 7 receptions and 114 yards. Touchdowns will come. I absolutely love drafting him late and I am telling you add him now. Its amazing how available he is.

42% rostered on Yahoo
57% on ESPN
65% on Sleeper
15% Free Agent Budget

Other wide receivers to consider:

  • Devin Duvernay – caught all 4 of his targets scored 2 TDs on a 13% target share
  • Kyle Philips – 9 targets, 27% target share, add him in PPR
  • Zay Jones – 9 Targets, 21% target share
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones – 11 Targets, 33% target share

NOTE: there is a lot of fantasy goodness at the wide receiver position this week, I feel really good about every player named. Which is why I bulleted them out and gave you some information.

Tight Ends

Taysom Hill

4 carries for 81 yards and a touchdown rushing. 1 target for 1 reception and 2 yards receiving. I love Taysom because he can do so many things to be a value to a fantasy team. Throw the ball, run with it and catch it. He is an amazing weapon that the Saints will turn loose. If you need help at tight end, add him. No one will do more with their touches.

10% rostered on Yahoo
3% on ESPN
12% rostered on Sleeper
15% Free Agent Budget

Gerald Everett

Everett had 4 targets which he turned into 3 receptions for 54 yards and a touchdown for his first game as a Charger. His 4 targets were tied for the team lead as the ball was really spread around by Justin Herbert. It appears Everett has a role in one of the top scoring offenses in the league.

27% rostered on Yahoo
13% on ESPN
34% rostered on Sleeper
10% Free Agent Budget

Other tight ends to consider:

  • Hunter Hurst – 8 targets, 15% target share
  • Tyler Higbee – 11 targets, 27% target share
  • Tyler Conklin – 7 Targets, 12% target share
  • OJ Howard – 2 touchdowns, only 2 targets

NOTE: I would at least watch all 4 of the players I have bulleted out. They may very well end up as someone you want to add at TE.

Thanks for checking out our waiver wire column. For more great content from the Undroppables, follow us on Twitter, follow @MikeReedyFF for more great content, and visit back soon for Mike’s weekly Money Makers and Heart Breakers

 

 

 

The Curious Case of Josh Jacobs: Revisited

Tommy Mo
-
0
The Curious Case of Josh Jacobs: Revisited

Just when you think Josh Jacobs has silenced the haters after his third consecutive RB1 finish to the 2021 season, another offseason of turnover in the Raiders organization brings us back around on the carousel that is the Josh Jacobs wheel of fade. This offseason, the hate drove his ADP all the way down to RB20 (48th overall) according to Fantasy Pros, and into the low 80s in Best Ball leagues on Underdog Fantasy. Leaving fantasy managers wondering if it’s time to jump off the ride or will they be treated to another RB1 season.

The Curious Case of Josh Jacobs

Two years ago ahead of the 2020 season I wrote, “The Curious Case of Josh Jacobs”. That article examined Jacobs’ 2019 rookie year and his potential to match what his ADP had risen to, RB9 in PPR leagues heading into 2020. And while The Undroppables were in on the hype train, as we had him ranked as our consensus RB8 that year, his path to mid-range RB1 status in PPR leagues was murky from the beginning.

In the original article I examined why his path to RB1 status was not an easy one. Mainly because of Jacobs’ relative lack of usage in the passing game. And less obviously, due to his inability to easily earn 385 touches. That (previous) magic number that (we thought) guaranteed a RB will reach top 12 status in PPR leagues c/o @BpoFSU. We’ve learned since then that only 8 players have hit 385 touches the past 5 years, so we need to examine that threshold for touches a little closer, which we’ll do a little later in this article.

2020 Josh Jacobs

Despite all the naysayers, the projections, the analytics models, and frankly all the haters, Josh Jacobs finished as the RB8 in PPR leagues by the end of 2020. He not only delivered on his early round ADP but he did it in style as he was selected to his first Pro Bowl. He topped 1,000 yards on the ground once again and saw an increase in the passing game with 45 targets, 33 receptions for 238 yards.

However, as Corbin Young wrote in his RB Efficiency article in 2021, Jacobs was one of the least efficient RBs in 2020 with a 4.3 yards per touch average (#53 out of all RBs). His finish was bolstered by a top 12 juke rate, number 11 in opportunities, third most in carries, and fourth most touchdowns. And despite the lack of target share, Jacobs was 24th overall in targets. Not the worst in the league. 

And once again, fantasy twitter spent the 2021 offseason debating and tearing down his 2020 performance. Many tweet threads and podcast segments were dedicated to the many reasons why Jacobs’ RB8 finish was a fluke. Whether it was the lack of efficiency (-13.6 Production Premium according to Player Profiler) or the addition of Kenyan Drake and his “he must be a starter” sized contract (2 years for $11M), Jacobs was the most disrespected RB1 heading into 2021.

That offseason hate this time drove his ADP down to RB19 by the time draft season rolled around in late August 2021. As a Josh Jacobs truther even I was realistic from the beginning of 2020 that the data pointed to Jacobs being a solid RB2 with RB1 upside, depending on targets. So I can understand why the fantasy community cooled on him. Especially the analytics crowd, but not as much as they did.

2021 Josh Jacobs

Well once again, for those who faded the noise and took advantage of Jacobs’ discounted draft value, they were rewarded with an overall RB12 finish in 2021 in PPR leagues. His third consecutive RB1 finish. 

However, his path to a RB1 finish this time was not as smooth or enjoyable to watch on a weekly basis. Jacobs struggled early as an ankle sprain kept him out of two games after Week 1. It wasn’t until Week 11 that Josh even topped 100 total yards, thanks to 25 yards through the air. He was also running behind an offensive line that was very much contributing to his struggles as Player Profiler ranked them dead last in Run Block Rating. 

This all contributed to another inefficient year with an overall yards per touch of 4.5, good for 37th in the league. But Jacobs was doing everything he could to make the most of those opportunities and why YPC and YPT may not be the best indicators of how good a RB really is. Because on the flip side, Jacobs was 7th overall in evaded tackles (76) and 9th overall in yards created (767), and he even increased his Production Premium to +3.2.

However, the best thing about his 2021 performance was the significant increase in target share, even with a pass catching RB like Kenyan Drake on the team. In the passing game, Jacobs finished 11th in the league in target share (12.4%), 12th in routes run (253), and 4th in catch rate (84.4%). I had been pounding the (twitter) table that Jacobs is a good pass catcher and we finally got to see it on display. Besides having to deal with an inefficient Gruden-led offensive scheme, the rapport with Carr as a capable pass catcher just wasn’t there yet his first two seasons. Like many QB-RB duos in the league, targets are built on trust and Jacobs had to earn it.

Jacobs’ 2021 was once again lead by volume and opportunities, but he finally had the target share to back up his RB1 status. And given he missed two games and had a slow return to full speed, his production and efficiency in 2021 could have been even better with a full workload. But one thing is for sure, he showed great returns on his low ADP investment. Exactly what you want from a fantasy player and exactly what you can expect from Josh Jacobs.

RB1 Touches Threshold

I wanted to revisit this threshold of 385 touches that was discussed in the original article. Originally our data pointed to 385 touches as being the magic number needed to guarantee RB1 status. The thought was RB12s and higher since 1992 scored on average at least 221.2 fantasy points. At the same time, no RB has ever received less than 385 touches and not scored at least 221.2 points. While there was some correlation in the data we analyzed to support that claim, and thus why it was included in the original article, it’s not a sticky stat that one could plant his flag on. As stated earlier, the biggest reason is that only 8 players have hit over 385 touches in the last 5 years. As the game has changed so must the analysis.

Our Director of Sports Betting Brian O’Connell originally conducted the analysis and knows that analytics has progressed beyond what we examined two years ago. What we know now is that overall season touches are very predictive of fantasy points per game. When we chart RB touches vs PPR Fantasy Points over the past five seasons, we can see a strong correlation (R squared = 0.746) between touches and fantasy points. And when we chart Josh Jacobs on the graph we can see he’s right on the trend line for the last three seasons. Jacobs gets exactly the amount of fantasy points we would expect based on his number of touches.

Oh, and those two dots massively above the graph? That’s Christian McCaffrey. His hyper efficiency and heavy passing game usage makes him break the chart.

RB-Touches-Josh-Jacobs 1

 

Touches charted over fantasy points. R2=0.746

McDaniels-Belichick Historic ‘Workhorse’ RB Usage

Everyone buys into the narrative that Bill Belichick (and by extension Josh McDaniels) will always take a committee approach to the backfield. Yet whenever they’ve had a RB that can handle a full workload they’ve given it to him. Let’s take a look at the RBs in the Bill Belichick-Josh McDaniels era who carried a full workload that season. Note that most of these players were gone within 1-2 seasons after their breakout year in New England, another possible similarity to Jacobs. 

Corey Dillon. At the age of 30 in 2004, Dillon rushed 345 times for 1,635 yards and 12 TDs. with 4.7 YPC and 109 YPG. The BEST single-season RB performance in Patriots history. He finished as the RB7 in fantasy in a year loaded at the RB position with guys like LaDainian Tomlinson, Edgerrin James, and Shaun Alexander, to name a few. Dillon started his career in Cincinnati where he was a perennial 1,000+ yard rusher until his final year in Ohio in 2003. Dillon resurged in 2004 with the Patriots who knew they could lean on their signed veteran RB. His final two seasons in New England he shared the backfield with Kevin Faulk and then Lawrence Maroney, posting 700+ and 800+ yard rushing seasons, respectively. 

Stevan Ridley. In his 2nd season in 2012, Josh McDaniels gave the Third Round back out of LSU the lion’s share of the carries with 290 rushing attempts for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs. The best finish of his career and the 7th most rushing yards on the season. Since Danny Woodhead was also on the team, Ridley missed out on targets but got the rushes and TDs, finishing as the RB15 in PPR leagues. A significant accomplishment given Ridley was primarily a rushing back and guys like Adrian Peterson were topping 2K yards on the ground. Still, we saw that volume was the key to Ridley’s success that year and McDaniels was willing to give him that volume.

LeGarrette Blount. In 2016, McDaniels revitalized another aging RB (30) in Blount, feeding him 299 attempts for 1,161 yards and 18 TDs! He played a career-high 47% of the offensive snaps, and was ultra-efficient at the goal line scoring 12 of his TDs inside 5 yards. Blount finished the season as the RB8 in PPR, once again despite the lack of targets. Dion Lewis was on the team this time to take away passing targets from Blount. While Blount barely surpassed the 1K threshold during his rookie season with Tampa Bay, it took 6 more seasons before he could solidly do it again with the Patriots, only to never do it again. 

BenJarvus Green-Ellis. In 2010, the “Law Firm” became the last RB in the Belichick era on this list to eclipse 1,000 yards with 229 rushing attempts and 13 TDs. BJGE moved the chains that year with 65 1st downs as a volume back that finished as RB17 in PPR leagues, again despite targets. Also, Josh McDaniels was doing his first head coaching stint in Denver at the time so he wasn’t calling the offense. But Belichick continued the trend with feeding the rock to the capable RB who could carry the load. And unlike the other three RBs discussed here, BJGE continued to be productive after his big Patriots year and topped 1K yards rushing with Cincinnati two seasons later.

Conclusion

Josh Jacobs has shown to be exactly what you (should) expect him to be. A volume-based, solid RB2 with RB1 upside, dependent on target share. He may not be the most efficient back but he’s the lead dawg in Las Vegas and will continue to get the opportunities. As we see in Josh Mcdaniels’ historic RB usage, when he has a capable RB1 he will give him the volume. And that’s exactly what Jacobs is. A competent NFL RB who can carry the workload, move the chains, make people miss, and can catch passes. He may not be the sexiest fantasy football player but like Kirk Cousins, he’s been very steady overall the past three years.

2022 Josh Jacobs

So what should expect this year out of Josh Jacobs? Is it another RB1 season, or will this finally be the year that Jacobs haters get to say they were right all along?

Scheme

Well first, the new scheme should help as New England was top 10 in rushing attempts the past four seasons. Yes, McDaniels will use the RBs more as pass catchers but the increase in targets the past three years shows a nice trend that should continue as Carr is now more comfortable checking down to Jacobs. Also, last year the Raiders were the 2nd in targets to the RB position with 145. With a new scheme we can’t expect the same level of targets but the trend is once again there pointing to increased RB usage in the passing game. By contrast, the Patriots were 15th in RB targets, most of those going to Brandon Bolden who is now #2 on the Raiders depth chart.

Personnel

Jacobs is no longer competing for touches from good pass catchers like Jalen Richard or big contract guys like Kenyan Drake. The depth chart has Brandon Bolden #2, a former Patriot and bigger back that has never topped 275 yards rushing in any season. But as mentioned earlier he is capable of catching the ball out of the backfield. Followed by Ameer Abdullah, a competent receiving back who has been bouncing around the league the past four years. And newly drafted rookie from Georgia Zamir White who has talent but a long path to fantasy relevancy. With no clear replacement next year, Jacobs is primed once again to get the workload needed to reach RB1 status.

Offensive Line

The offensive line will continue to be an issue this year as our own Brad Wire has them ranked 28th overall, and 24th in run blocking. The Raiders also just dropped their First Round pick from last year in RT Alex Leatherwood. Cutting him may end up being better for the team, but having last minute turnover by getting rid of your starting RT isn’t good for continuity. We may once again see another inefficient year with many evaded tackles and missed tackles forced in order to create some production behind a bad line.

Projections

Personally, I’m expecting a similar fringe RB1 finish for Josh Jacobs this year supported by volume and an increased target share. After all, he’s a solid RB2 with RB1 upside. But I can’t write an article just on gut feelings so I pulled up The Undroppables CEO’s projections for the Raiders this year. Chalk has Josh Jacobs projected with a RB19 finish based on 920 rushing yards, 9 TDs, 51 targets with 39 receptions for 254 yards, and 1 receiving TD. A solid finish for Jacobs considering his ADP. He would once again finish exactly as expected, or slightly above. I think Chalk is giving too much production to White and underestimating Jacobs’ target share. But that’s why we do projections and look at historical data. It’s all a guessing game until the pads start to crack on the field.

One thing is for sure, with a low ADP and drafting Jacobs as your RB2/Flex RB3 in redraft leagues will leave you with a capable RB who will return on his investment. At best you have a fringe RB1 for a discount, and at worst you’re no longer spending early round draft capital even if he busts. I know personally, I have Jacobs as my RB2 on at least 1/2 my dynasty teams and I’m ready for another RB1 finish.

Closing Remarks

The trends for success are there for Jacobs even if the fantasy community at large is no longer riding the train. But for those that have faith, the rewards could be plenty. In fantasy football, no one has a crystal ball to predict the future. We are reading the tea leaves and all signs point to a productive year barring injury. And lastly, I’ll leave you with this tweet from Richard the Gnome comparing Jacobs to everyone’s favorite new RB Javonte Williams. Jacobs and Williams are in two different places in their careers, but why is one highly touted and the other faded?

Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2022 – Week 1)

Michael Reedy
-
0
Money Makers & Heart Breakers (Fantasy Football 2022 – Week 1)

Week 1 is almost here. I cannot contain my excitement! It is so great to have my drafts done and move into focusing on DFS with MMHB. So, welcome back.

I am super excited this year as it is my son’s second season playing fantasy. We get to bond over his draft, waiver moves and tough line up decisions. I can say I didn’t help him with his draft this year, and he didn’t need me. Its fun to see his progress playing, almost as much fun as it was watching him play sports growing up.

If you are new to reading my work, thank you for checking it out. If you are not new, welcome back. I am super happy to have you here.

This column can be used to help you handle some start/sit questions you might have, but its primary purpose is to take you through the main DFS slate weekly with players that will make you money and players that will break your heart.

Here is a brief definition of each of my terms for anyone that might be new:

💰 Money Maker – This player will perform better than expectations

💔 Heart Breaker – This player will perform lower than expectations

💰 Money Makers

Quarterbacks

Derek Carr

Playing the Chargers in Week 1. Vegas says it will be a shootout with an over/under of 52.5. Carr should be passing a lot, and with his new coach and wide receiver, I expect a big day in Week 1. In 2021 Carr threw for 4804 yards and 23 touchdowns. With Davante Adams added to the team, he will exceed those numbers.

$5,900 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel

Justin Herbert

You can feel confident running it back in the same game with Herbert against the Raiders. Herbert has excellent wide receivers and an outstanding receiving running back. This offense comes primed to go nuts in 2022, starting in Week 1. In 2021 Herbert threw for 5014 yards and 38 touchdowns; he will be lighting it up weekly.

$7,600 on DraftKings
$8,400 on Fanduel

Jameis Winston – The Saints are playing the Falcons in Atlanta. Winston has looked very effective in Saint’s new offense. He has incredible skill position players surrounding him. I like him in Week 1 against the Falcons’ bottom-tier defense for a lower-priced option. This one is daring, I know, but if you are looking for a lower-cost viable play, here it is.

$5,300 on DraftKings
$6,700 on Fanduel

Other quarterbacks for Week 1

Lamar Jackson

$7,300 on DraftKings
$8,500 on Fanduel

Jalen Hurts

$6,800 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel

Trevor Lawrence

$5,600 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor

The Colts are playing the Texans in Week 1. The Texans project to be pretty bad again in 2022. Last season Taylor scored 27 points in Week 6 and 24 points in Week 13 against the Texans. I know it’s a new season, but it looks like the same old Texans. So Taylor for 20-something points in Week 1 looks like a sure thing. Taylor will mess with Texas, or at least the Texans!

$9,100 on DraftKings
$10,200 on Fanduel

Najee Harris

Najee had a sprained Lisfranc during the preseason, yet he is still out there and, I might add, looking pretty good. With that, I am not quitting him in Week 1 of 2022. Najee had over 300 carries last season and 74 receptions. Volume is king; I am betting on volume here in Week 1. So, say it with me “VOLUME MATTERS.” Najee is the volume king.

$6,400 on DraftKings
$8,200 on Fanduel

Damien Harris

In 2021 Harris had either 100 yards or a TD against the Dolphins. The Patriots are going to utilize Harris at the goal line, and they are going to give him the ball. Harris had 929 yards and 15 touchdowns in 2021; he will exceed those numbers in 2022 starting Week 1. I also like Rhamondre Stevenson, as the backfield condensed to these two guys.

$5,700 on DraftKings
$6,900 on Fanduel

Other Running backs for Week 1

Aaron Jones

$6,700 on DraftKings
$7,400 on Fanduel

James Conner

$7,000 on DraftKings
$7,700 on Fanduel

Dameon Pierce

$4,800 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel

NOTE: Everyone will be playing Pierce. I love him in cash games, but I will avoid him in GPP contests.

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams

Adams is simply a great wide receiver. He and Derek Carr have chemistry as they were teammates in college. This game against the Chargers projects to be a shootout. Adams will be the focal point of this passing attack. I am excited about this game!

$8,100 on DraftKings
$8,500 on Fanduel

JuJu Smith-Schuster

There is a 53.5 over/under for the Chiefs/Cardinals game in Week 1. We love shootouts for the fantasy goodness that they can bring. Training camp taught us that JuJu is an excellent target for Patrick Mahomes, especially in the red zone. I am going with JuJu in Week 1 and betting on the combination of the shootout and quarterback to bring JuJu back to being a fantasy star.

$5,200 on DraftKings
$6,400 on Fanduel

Marquise Brown

What did I say about the Chiefs/Cardinals game? Oh, yeah, that is high over/under—the highest of the week. So let’s do a little run back with Hollywood Brown connecting with his college quarterback, working to keep up with the Chiefs. I love what this does for Browns’ value, playing in an offense that passes a lot. Arizona hasn’t had a shootout like this since the Erps and the OK Corral.

$6,200 on DraftKings
$6,900 on Fanduel

Other Wide Receivers for Week 1

Hunter Renfrow

$5,800 on DraftKings
$5,900 on Fanduel

Christian Kirk

$5,100 on DraftKings
$5,800 on Fanduel

Jarvis Landry

$5,000 on DraftKings
$5,700 on Fanduel

Robert Woods

$5,600 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews

In 2021 Andrews had a 24% target share of the Ravens’ passing game. He had 107 receptions, 1361 yards, and nine touchdowns on the season. He is the primary option in the Ravens’ passing game for 2022. I don’t need to say anything else. Andrews is good and saw 153 targets last season, by far the most for any tight end. Play him Week 1, I am.

$6,800 on DraftKings
$7,900 on Fanduel

Zach Ertz

In the final four weeks of the 2021 season, Ertz had a 25% target share in the Cardinals’ passing game. He will be the second option for Kyler Murray in the main slate projects to be the highest-scoring game. I keep coming back to that, don’t I?

$4,400 on DraftKings
$5,600 on Fanduel

Hunter Henry

Henry had 50 receptions for 603 yards and nine touchdowns in 2021. He is the primary red zone target for Mac Jones. He may be a little touchdown-dependent, but his price is right in DFS. If you aren’t getting a high-end guy, I like Ertz and Henry as I am writing about both guys.

$3,800 on DraftKings
$5,400 on Fanduel

Other Tight Ends for Week 1

Travis Kelce

$6,600 on DraftKings
$8,000 on Fanduel

Darren Waller

$5,400 on DraftKings
$7,000 on Fanduel

Robert Tonyan

$3,900 on DraftKings
$5,100 on Fanduel

💔Heart Breakers

Quarter Backs

Trey Lance

I know everyone loves him. I know he will run with the ball. I know he was OK in his three games with playing time last season. However, he has looked subpar through the preseason. If you drafted him in redraft and he is your starter, feel free to play him. However, I avoid it at all costs in DFS for Week 1.

Joe Burrow

For starters, I love Joe Burrow. He helped me win a championship last season. Why? Because he was terrific in Weeks 16 and 17. Want to know when he was just average? In both games against the Steelers, that’s when. He did throw for three touchdowns against the Steelers in Week 3 last season, so there is hope. I am playing him season-long. I am not in DFS. Me thinks the price is too high.

Justin Fields

Do you know why? Because I wanted a really easy pick for Week 1. This offense doesn’t look good. Fields doesn’t look good on the football field. Yuck, yuck, more yuck.

Running Backs

Cordarelle Patterson

In 2021 the Saints were one of the most formidable teams on running backs in fantasy. Patterson was good last season. Atlanta’s offense doesn’t look great this season. Patterson potentially gets to split carries; there is talk of putting him on touch counts as he wore down at the end of last season. I want to see what happens before I put my money on Patterson in 2022.

Breece Hall

Another training camp darling that will make people upset that I have him here. The Ravens are really good against the run. The Ravens are not great against the pass. I see Flacco throwing more to stay in this game. I am passing on Hall in DFS Week 1.

Saquon Barkley

I want you to know I love Barkley for this 2022 season. I love that Daboll is the new head coach for the Giants. I think Barkley has an outstanding season. In Week 1, the Giants play the Titans. The Titans were the most brutal defense against running backs in fantasy last season. They like to stop the run historically. So season-long, I am playing him; DFS, I am passing on him.

Wide Receivers

Deebo Samuel

You see that I’m not too fond of Trey Lance for Week 1. Who catches balls from Trey Lance? In the preseason, it was Brandon Aiyuk, not Deebo Samuel. As goes, the QB goes the passing game for me this week. Out on Deebo in DFS, that hurts me to say. I feel dirty now.

Jalen Waddle

I love the new offense, love Waddle. He is one of my highest-rostered players in season-long. I hate that he missed most of the preseason with a soft tissue injury. There is a new offense he hasn’t been on the field for in training camp. His chemistry in the short passing game could help him get involved. I am just avoiding him in DFS week 1.

Amari Cooper

The Panthers’ defense is pretty good. Cooper’s quarterback is not so good. This looks like the Nick Chubb show to me in Week 1. The second half of the season will probably be much kinder to Cooper than the first half, at least football-wise.

Tight Ends

George Kittle

I am staying consistent with avoiding the Niners’ passing game weapons. Kittle may have to block a lot while Lance runs. We know Kittle has the talent. Man, is he a great tight end. But I throw up in my mouth thinking about playing him in DFS Week 1. Tough defense and an offense that hasn’t looked ready in the preseason. Just ew.

Mike Gesicki

The Dolphins have a new offense which I like. What I don’t like is that Gesicki isn’t lining up out wide anymore. Also, I wouldn’t say I like that he had a total of 2 receptions for 22 yards in two games against the Patriots last season. The Patriots’ defense is faster and younger this year. After writing about Kittle and Gesicki, I need to brush my teeth; I’ll be right back.

Kyle Pitts

My mouth no longer tastes like vomit because I loved Kyle Pitts in 2021, but I strongly dislike Kyle Pitts against the Saints. In 2 career games against the Saints, Pitts’ numbers look like this: twelve total targets, five receptions, 70 yards, and no touchdowns. Pitts is the pits in Week 1.

Thanks for checking out Money Maker and Heart Breakers. For more great content from The Undroppables, follow us on Twitter and @MikeReedyFF for more great content.

 

College Football Week 1 Over Reactions

Kyle Larson
-
0
College Football Week 1 Over Reactions
Check out Kyle‘s Devy Rankings as he follows and updates each week on Devy content and rankings. Also, follow The Undroppables for all your fantasy football needs.
UNC QB Drake Maye will be special; he flashed in Week 0 with 5 TDs against FAMU. However, putting together another super impressive performance against Appalachian State, WITHOUT his best receiver in Josh Downs, cemented that week’s performance. I was admittedly far too low on him going into the season due to a perceived QB battle, so he moves from QB29 to QB9 in my rankings.
Utah @ Florida was an incredible game, primarily due to the performances of both starting QBs. Florida QB Anthony Richardson was astounding on the ground and should not be able to move like that at his size. He was already my QB5 in Devy and QB3 in the upcoming draft, but I expect NFL scouts to see the light after that performance. On the other side, Utah QB Cameron Rising faced a difficult test leading his team in The Swamp and, up until the final throw, showed impressive poise and savvy that will add him to the growing list of QBs to look out for near the top of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Sticking with Utah, TE Brant Kuithe has been considered an NFL prospect for years but chose not to make the jump last year. His performance as the Utes’ lead receiver leaves me scratching my head as to why he’s still in college, but it also makes me even more excited for his professional prospects in the future.
Nebraska RB Anthony Grant was one of the top JUCO prospects this year, and I had my eye on him. But two consecutive weeks of impressive performances means I’m VERY interested. He cracks my rankings at RB43 for now, but if he can keep the job once sophomore RB Gabe Ervin is fully healthy, he’ll climb even higher.
Last year’s top JUCO RB recruit, Tiyon Evans, also had an impressive performance in his first game for Louisville after transferring from Tennessee. He ran for 89 yards and a TD on just 13 attempts and was the unquestioned leader of the RB room. Louisville also saw a solid performance from another transfer, WR Tyler Hudson, who joined the team from Central Arkansas this offseason. I expect both these guys to have the attention of scouts as we head towards the draft.
Arkansas RB Raheim Sanders is a guy I had a lot of pauses about early in the offseason cycle but eventually moved up my rankings. He’s cemented himself even further with a strong performance against Cincinnati, and he’ll jump from RB11 to RB9.
New Pittsburgh OC Frank Cignetti Jr is proving to be a massive downgrade from former OC Mark Whipple, as is Kedon Slovis from Kenny Pickett. I liked RB Israel Abanikanda, WR Konata Mumpfield, and TE Gavin Bartholomew heading into the season, but it’ll be tough sledding for all three if the game-planning doesn’t improve. The performance that worried me the most was from Abanikanda, as he was significantly out-touched by fellow back Rodney Hammond Jr and was highly inefficient. He’ll drop from RB20 to RB26 for now but could slide even further.
Notre Dame QB Tyler Buchner looked fantastic early on but struggled once the pressure ramped up from Jim Knowles’ OSU defense. I have high hopes for the player he can become, but he’ll need some WRs and RBs to step up and help him move the ball.
The Ole Miss passing attack did not look the part of what many expected, as former USC QB Jaxson Dart averaged just 4.8 air yards per attempt. I’m not worried about TE Michael Trigg, but my hopes for WR Jaylon Robinson seem to have taken a hit. On the other hand, both valuable Devy RBs in this offense (Junior Zach Evans and true Freshman (tFR) Quinshon Judkins) played exceptionally well. I have big expectations for both, and Judkins could climb higher amongst his class of 2025 compatriots if he continues to make such a significant impact as a tFR in the SEC.
Another player that was just a bit of a disappointment in Week 1 and could continue to be is Fresno State WR Jalen Cropper. He seems to no longer be the unquestioned WR1 in this offense as Cal transfer Nikko Remigio was impressive and out-produced Cropper in his first game for the Bulldogs. In addition, the offense seems to have taken a hit with the loss of HC Kalen DeBoer. QB Jake Haener is still a baller, but expect Fresno to put up fewer points than last year.
Iowa State QB Hunter Dekkers could be that dude. He went 25/31 for 293 yards, 4 TDs, and 1 INT against a poor opponent, but he looked the part on film, dropping some dimes and flashing his mobility. The beneficiaries of Dekkers’ performances this season are 5th-year WR Xavier Hutchinson, a big-bodied, contested-catch guy who could find himself going off the board in the late rounds of next spring’s draft, as well as true Sophomore WR Jaylin Noel. Noel is the polar opposite of Hutchinson at just 5’10” 190, but he showed superb quickness from the slot and return-game ability last season. He started the season with six catches and will look to continue that into the rest of the year.
Luther Burden was the top WR in this recruiting class for a reason, and he showed why in Week 1 against Louisiana Tech with two TDs. The Missouri offense will lean heavily on him this year, but QB Brady Cook will have to be better for Burden to continue to dominate against SEC defenses later in the year. However, Eliah Drinkwitz’s approach to getting Burden the ball in any way possible should help.
Penn State – tFR RB Nicholas Singleton immediately (barely) led the team in carries. He’s a great player and will likely be one of the best backs in college football by 2024/2025. Former WKU WR Mitchell Tinsley was fantastic in the air raid last season, but I was unsure what his role would be alongside Parker Washington and Keandre LambertSmith. However, he was the most productive of the three in a tough test against Purdue in Week 1, and he’ll see a bump up in the rankings while Washington slides a tad. tFR QB Drew Allar also got a single drive during the middle of the contest and immediately showed confidence, stepping up in the pocket and delivering three excellent passes on four attempts before his drive got stalled out by a poor drop from one of his receivers.
Jacob Cowing jumped from G5 to P5 by moving to Arizona this off-season. He immediately connected with former Washington State QB Jayden de Laura and ended the night with an 8/152/3 stat line. At Arizona, he has a huge opportunity to impress scouts this season and make the league next year.
Texas A&M was not as advertised in their tune-up game in Week 1. The defense will likely be tough to play against, but the rushing attack and QB play left much to be desired. Speedy RB Devon Achane averaged a paltry 2.3 yards per attempt against Sam Houston State, and QB Haynes King had trouble throwing an accurate deep ball. However, one impressive player was tFR WR Evan Stewart, who had the second most receptions on the team in his first game and also played the majority of snaps. Good stuff for a guy who was playing his first ever college football game.
One other SEC WR in his first ever game who flashed a great skillset was Kentucky WR Barion Brown. Brown was among the Week 1 starters and had three catches for 45 yards. However, he put his speed on display as the primary kick returner, taking one to the house while breaking the 21 mph mark and sustaining that speed for a large stretch of the open field.
Vandy QB Mike Wright has been highly productive in the ground game over the last two weeks, and his athleticism could make him a future professional. He’s someone I’m going to continue to monitor, but I want to see him perform against some tougher competition before he cracks my rankings.
UCONN RB Nathan Carter was a guy I targeted heavily late in C2C drafts for his CFF production, but he’s been even more dominant than I expected. He’ll barely crack my rankings at RB54 for now, but the next three weeks (vs. Syracuse, @Michigan, and @NC State) could massively catapult him up the ranks if he continues to show his skills against a higher level of competition.
1...272829...135Page 28 of 135

Popular Articles

Featured

Newsletter

Subscribe and become an insider!

© Copyright - The Undroppables