The Undroppables Risk Score | Building an Unstoppable Fantasy Football Team

-

August 28, 2022

The Undroppables Risk Score | Building an Unstoppable Fantasy Football Team

Building an Unstoppable Fantasy Team

Part 1: Introducing The Undroppables Risk Score

By: Joshua Lee, Head of Analytics at the Undroppables

Building an unstoppable fantasy team is simple in theory: draft good players that score fantasy points and don’t draft bad players that won’t score fantasy points. Every single fantasy football player faces the same problem. It’s hard to choose between players that the experts and the consensus consider good fantasy players.

Should I draft Christian McCaffrey or Jonathon Taylor with my first pick?
Should I draft Tee Higgins or AJ Brown in the second round?
Who should I draft in the late rounds?

These are tough questions, and even the best fantasy football players in the world struggle to agree on an answer. So, we at the Undroppables have come up with a way that can help you decide between players in your drafts. So without further ado, I introduce to you… the Undroppables Risk Score.

The Undroppables Risk Score is the probability that a player will bust at their current draft position. For example, Saquon Barkley has an Undroppables Risk Score of 54%, which means that Saquon has a 54% chance of not scoring the same amount of fantasy points as the other players drafted around him (aka he busts). So we can use the URS (short for Undroppables Risk Score) index to identify which players to avoid in our drafts as well as which players to target in each round.

Please find below the Undroppables Risk Scores for your 2022 fantasy football drafts, and the URS methodology can be found at the end of the article.

Undroppables Risk Score Index

ADP data from Sleeper PPR 1-QB Format Leagues

URS: Undroppables Risk Score (% chance player busts at ADP)

Sleeper ADP	Name	URS
1	Jonathan Taylor	0.10%
2	Christian McCaffrey	4.94%
3	Derrick Henry	0.32%
4	Austin Ekeler	0.05%
5	Cooper Kupp	0.02%
6	Justin Jefferson	0.31%
7	Dalvin Cook	9.29%
8	Najee Harris	3.88%
9	Ja’Marr Chase	12.46%
10	Joe Mixon	1.24%
11	Davante Adams	0.05%
12	Stefon Diggs	1.79%
13	Travis Kelce	0.21%
14	D’Andre Swift	4.91%
15	Nick Chubb	4.11%
16	CeeDee Lamb	28.92%
17	Alvin Kamara	0.30%
18	Aaron Jones	10.89%
19	Tyreek Hill	0.41%
20	Deebo Samuel	0.72%
21	Saquon Barkley	53.99%
23	Mark Andrews	0.50%
24	Javonte Williams	32.08%
25	Leonard Fournette	26.55%
26	Mike Evans	6.74%
27	Keenan Allen	9.92%
28	A.J. Brown	13.40%
29	Ezekiel Elliott	46.34%
30	Kyle Pitts	59.14%
32	James Conner	23.78%
33	Tee Higgins	1.85%
35	Cam Akers	86.16%
36	George Kittle	40.95%
37	Michael Pittman	42.00%
38	Terry McLaurin	60.97%
39	David Montgomery	3.06%
40	Darren Waller	44.45%
41	Diontae Johnson	18.73%
42	Travis Etienne	45.24%
43	Jaylen Waddle	10.24%
44	Breece Hall	48.62%
45	D.J. Moore	17.29%
47	D.K. Metcalf	11.75%
48	Josh Jacobs	6.59%
49	Jerry Jeudy	59.71%
50	Courtland Sutton	67.25%
51	Antonio Gibson	39.44%
52	Mike Williams	6.29%
54	J.K. Dobbins	76.61%
55	Elijah Mitchell	15.41%
56	Dalton Schultz	73.31%
58	Amari Cooper	49.63%
59	Allen Robinson	74.01%
60	Marquise Brown	55.79%
61	T.J. Hockenson	70.57%
62	Brandin Cooks	36.66%
63	Chris Godwin	2.25%
64	Michael Thomas	46.78%
65	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	73.32%
67	Amon-Ra St. Brown	40.14%
68	A.J. Dillon	80.16%
69	JuJu Smith-Schuster	81.57%
70	Adam Thielen	22.12%
71	Darnell Mooney	49.22%
72	Miles Sanders	92.45%
74	Dallas Goedert	78.85%
75	Damien Harris	61.59%
76	Rashod Bateman	74.89%
77	DeAndre Hopkins	39.69%
79	Kareem Hunt	75.38%
81	Kenneth Walker	58.69%
82	Drake London	56.25%
83	Cordarrelle Patterson	46.11%
84	Zach Ertz	86.91%
85	Tony Pollard	71.60%
86	Hunter Renfrow	17.81%
87	Devonta Smith	55.34%
89	Dawson Knox	87.87%
90	Elijah Moore	48.15%
91	Devin Singletary	58.36%
93	Rashaad Penny	62.74%
94	Chase Edmonds	49.28%
95	Brandon Aiyuk	59.05%
96	Treylon Burks	20.83%
97	Tyler Lockett	14.95%
98	Allen Lazard	65.91%
100	James Cook	56.11%
101	Chris Olave	29.66%
103	Pat Freiermuth	84.19%
104	Melvin Gordon	84.59%
105	Rhamondre Stevenson	73.50%
106	Robert Woods	7.00%
107	Christian Kirk	27.42%
108	Garrett Wilson	18.99%
109	Mike Gesicki	84.87%
110	Chase Claypool	86.26%
111	Dameon Pierce	67.11%
113	Kadarius Toney	58.69%
114	Skyy Moore	57.82%
115	Michael Carter	73.73%
116	Cole Kmet	76.10%
117	James Robinson	20.00%
118	George Pickens	37.10%
119	Tyler Boyd	65.13%
120	Alexander Mattison	89.02%
121	Albert Okwuegbunam	85.73%
134	Julio Jones	52.37%
137	Russell Gage	59.12%
139	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	66.98%
140	Nyheim Hines	62.71%
142	Isaiah Spiller	65.40%
143	Hunter Henry	69.06%
144	Jarvis Landry	80.34%
145	Darrell Henderson	48.56%
147	Christian Watson	52.47%
148	Tyler Higbee	75.64%
149	Michael Gallup	80.08%
150	Rondale Moore	80.36%
151	Rachaad White	58.74%
153	Irv Smith	74.02%
160	Brian Robinson	57.21%
161	Kenneth Gainwell	73.00%
162	DeVante Parker	57.40%
163	Tyler Allgeier	64.43%
164	Jahan Dotson	17.69%
166	Jakobi Meyers	41.60%
167	Jameson Williams	29.17%
169	David Njoku	69.22%
170	Jalen Tolbert	39.60%
171	Kenny Golladay	77.72%
172	Marlon Mack	78.90%
173	J.D. McKissic	53.21%
175	Noah Fant	54.06%
176	Mark Ingram	70.83%
177	D.J. Chark	43.12%
179	Khalil Herbert	89.99%
180	Isiah Pacheco	73.37%
181	Romeo Doubs	80.63%
186	Jamaal Williams	60.94%
188	Mecole Hardman	80.00%
190	Gerald Everett	60.37%
191	Sammy Watkins	72.50%
192	Raheem Mostert	59.47%
193	Chuba Hubbard	90.23%
194	Robert Tonyan	67.81%
195	Nico Collins	35.29%
197	Alec Pierce	36.37%
198	K.J. Osborn	45.45%
199	Zamir White	66.31%
200	Hayden Hurst	61.98%
201	Austin Hooper	66.01%
202	Tyrion Davis-Price	63.91%
203	Darrel Williams	63.41%
204	Van Jefferson	52.68%
205	Gus Edwards	72.52%
209	Isaiah McKenzie	60.02%
211	Wan’Dale Robinson	16.86%
213	Josh Palmer	39.07%
215	Evan Engram	44.19%
216	K.J. Hamler	68.86%
218	Robby Anderson	39.69%
219	D’Onta Foreman	81.96%
221	Cameron Brate	80.42%
222	A.J. Green	38.71%
223	Parris Campbell	71.64%
225	Jamison Crowder	66.09%
228	Marvin Jones	24.50%
230	Kendrick Bourne	76.16%
231	Donovan Peoples-Jones	71.05%
232	Curtis Samuel	56.38%
234	David Bell	45.63%
235	Sony Michel	80.67%
236	Devin Duvernay	62.16%
237	Brevin Jordan	52.12%
240	Corey Davis	30.42%
242	Kyle Rudolph	61.33%
245	Chris Evans	67.91%
247	Dontrell Hilliard	62.86%
250	Velus Jones	17.45%
250	Greg Dulcich	30.62%
250	Byron Pringle	53.34%
250	Pharaoh Brown	58.22%
250	Jeff Wilson	58.47%
250	Chris Conley	58.96%
250	Kyle Philips	50.67%
250	Rashard Higgins	61.88%
250	Dan Arnold	62.45%
250	Daniel Bellinger	42.45%
250	James Proche	63.60%
250	Jonnu Smith	64.91%
250	Nelson Agholor	52.15%
250	Samaje Perine	65.34%
250	Phillip Dorsett	65.43%
250	Ashton Dulin	65.43%
250	Braxton Berrios	66.22%
250	Tommy Tremble	68.09%
250	Matt Breida	70.74%
250	Ty Montgomery	72.37%
250	Tutu Atwell	72.62%
250	Noah Brown	73.17%
250	Marquez Callaway	73.54%
250	Trestan Ebner	63.62%
250	Harrison Bryant	74.20%
250	Mack Hollins	74.32%
250	Kylen Granson	75.29%
250	Collin Johnson	75.68%
250	Ameer Abdullah	75.96%
250	Geoff Swaim	76.19%
250	Danny Gray	76.58%
251	Zay Jones	59.83%
252	Randall Cobb	42.43%
256	Tyler Conklin	60.90%
257	Boston Scott	66.19%
263	C.J. Uzomah	66.87%
266	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	46.37%
269	Bryan Edwards	29.11%

Methodology

The Undroppables Risk Score = J-Score + Upside Score – ADP Score

J-SCORE

The Undroppables Analytics team built an XGBoost Logistic Classifier model to predict the probability that NFL players score fantasy points. We defined two tier classes:

Dawg=>15 PPR points per game
Not a Dawg <= 15 PPR points per game.

We used data from PlayerProfiler, Pro-Football-Reference, and other source materials which included medicals, college production, draft capital, fantasy football production, actual NFL production, advanced stats, next Gen stats, AWS stats, and my local corner store’s drunk guy’s stats. Our dataset possessed hundreds of variables from thousands of NFL players to identify the most predictive stats in terms of next season’s fantasy points. The team was absolutely and utterly shocked by the most important variable. Fantasy points. The model does not care at all about the advanced analytics which means you shouldn’t either. The only thing that matters is previous fantasy production.

Upside Score

The Undroppables Analytics team used Chalk’s projections (as of 08-24-22) to determine each player’s upside score.

ADP Score

The Undroppables Analytics team used Sleeper’s ADP (as of 08-27-22) to determine each player’s ADP score.

Interested in joining the Undroppables Analytics team? DM me @joshuajaehyun on twitter or email me at joshualee007@gmail.com!

Fantasy Redraft Formula – Rookie WR Edition

Featured

-

August 26, 2022

0

Fantasy Redraft Formula – Rookie WR Edition

Equation Construction

I wanted a way to come up with a “formula” to help differentiate between players and to help decide on how to find the best players for when I am drafting for Redraft leagues. That leads me to concentrate on a few areas for rookie evaluation for redraft leagues that, when combined, give me a solid chance at finding some players that will help me win some championships. These variables for the formula are Draft Capital, Opportunities, Supporting Cast, and Draft Profile.

Draft Capital – The higher team drafted the player in the NFL Draft; historically, that player has more opportunities to get a greater chance of success in the NFL. But, again, this goes for fantasy purposes; these players generally correlate to having the most success in fantasy football.

Opportunities – There are a limited number of given snaps in the NFL and even more limited options for opportunities (plays with the ball). All players that project to be healthy and have primary usage in their offenses get their calculation here.

Supporting Cast – This is purely subjective, but I feel that some positions (Wide Receivers and Quarterbacks) greatly benefit when they have an excellent supporting cast for rookies, specifically for fantasy. Running backs and tight ends generally aren’t swayed too much from their situations, but it is still good to include them for tiebreakers and one-of cases.

Draft Profile – Trust your process when you evaluate rookies. If you are high on a rookie but fell in the draft, still believe in their rookie profile. They are the same athlete they were before the draft, don’t let the draft capital completely change your opinion on the player.

2021 Rookie WR Review

One of the deepest wide receiver classes in recent memory, several of them came primed to take over in 2021 and future years for all the dynasty managers. Here is the list of some of the wide receivers from the class and how their ADP and Positional finishes lined up:

Wide Receiver	2021 ADP	2021 WR Finish PPR
Ja’Marr Chase	WR31	WR5
Jaylen Waddle	WR41	WR13
DeVonta Smith	WR32	WR30
Kadarius Toney	N/A	WR88
Rashod Bateman	N/A	WR71
Elijah Moore	WR53	WR50
Rondale Moore	WR59	WR66
Terrace Marshall Jr.	WR61	WR139
Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR64	WR21
Joshua Palmer	N/A	WR76
Nico Collins	N/A	WR87

Truly the definition of a league winner; if there were people that ignored the training camp slump of Ja’Marr Chase, they certainly made playoffs and possibly won their championships because of it. Drafting a top 5 WR in the 7th round in drafts is the recipe to do just that. Waddle came up big as well, being drafted a couple of rounds later and finishing just outside of the WR1 category. Devonta ended about where his ADP was, and the big surprise was Amon-Ra St. Brown. He finished as a WR2 overall and had an excellent finish to the season that helped managers if they could add him off the waiver wire.

Draft Capital

With no first-round running backs, the draft capital is a little less weight for this draft class. Only Breece Hall, Kenneth Walker, and James Cook have the second-round investment from this draft class. Here is a quick table to illustrate the running backs in the 2022 NFL Draft class:

Wide Receiver	2022 NFL Draft Selection
Drake London	Round 1 – Pick 8
Garrett Wilson	Round 1 – Pick 10
Chris Olave	Round 1 – Pick 11
Jameson Williams	Round 1 – Pick 12
Jahan Dotson	Round 1 – Pick 16
Treylon Burks	Round 1 – Pick 18
Christian Watson	Round 2 – Pick 34
Wan’Dale Robinson	Round 2 – Pick 43
John Metchie III	Round 2 – Pick 44
Tyquan Thornton	Round 2 – Pick 50
George Pickens	Round 2 – Pick 52
Alec Pierce	Round 2 – Pick 53
Skyy Moore	Round 2 – Pick 54
Velus Jones Jr.	Round 3 – Pick 71
Jalen Tolbert	Round 3 – Pick 88
David Bell	Round 3 – Pick 99
Danny Gray	Round 3 – Pick 105
Erik Ezukanma	Round 4 – Pick 125
Romeo Doubs	Round 4 – Pick 132
Calvin Austin	Round 4 – Pick 137
Khalil Shakir	Round 4 – Pick 148
Montrell Washington	Round 5 – Pick 162
Kyle Phillips	Round 5 – Pick 163
Jalen Nailor	Round 6 – Pick 191
Mike Woods	Round 6 – Pick 202
Bo Melton	Round 7 – Pick 229
Dareke Young	Round 7 – Pick 233
Samori Toure	Round 7 – Pick 258

Very different than the rookie running backs, the wide receivers were heavily invested in the earlier rounds by teams that could look to use them right away. Based on their draft capital, all day one or two healthy wide receivers should be considered in your redraft leagues during the draft. There are even arguments for some players like Velus Jones and Jalen Tolbert to be considered. Romeo Doubs has gotten a lot of camp hype as well.

Opportunities

Targets will be king for all pass-catching players, especially for wide receivers. Breaking them up into three categories to help you understand how I would group them:

Path to Lead Team in Targets
- Drake London
- Chris Olave
- Treylon Burks
Possible Contributors
- Garrett Wilson
- Jameson Williams (if activated off the NFI list)
- Jahan Dotson
- Christian Watson
- Wan’Dale Robinson
- Velus Jones Jr.
- Jalen Tolbert
- Alec Pierce
- Skyy Moore
Waiver Wire Candidates
- George Pickens
- Romeo Doubs
- David Bell
- Kyle Phillips

I am prioritizing the first group in all my drafts. These all can be great values since they all have more accessible paths where the outcome would be they lead their team in targets. That is a huge factor in evaluating their production for fantasy football. Draft Drake London at all costs!

For the possible contributors, these all have outcomes where they contribute to their team’s offenses enough to where they might have relevancy for flex play, maybe even elevating to a weekly starter. Of course, getting to that path might take an injury or suspension, but remember that they provide excellent value in the later rounds of your redraft leagues.

Waiver wire candidates are the guys I will be monitoring during the season to see how fluid their situations are. Especially with George Pickens, who has shown to be a huge steal in the NFL draft and making plays in camp and preseason games. However, he still has Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, and Najee Harris ahead of him for targets. The Steelers will lower their passing attempts with Kenny Picket or Mitchell Trubisky starting. I would rather wait on this one in Week 1 or 2 for waivers than draft and drop.

Supporting Cast

The key to understanding the supporting cast and using it in this formula is simple, do they have an elite quarterback throwing to them or not? Ok, maybe it’s not that simple; wide receivers can quickly produce with average to below-average QBs. I think it’s more of a tiebreaker when deciding which wide receivers to consider if you choose between them. There are also some historical data for some that seem to favor and target their primary target a heavy amount (i.e., Matthew Stafford). So, in short, trust your process on how you evaluate the quarterback position and use that as a metric on if this wide receiver will be good for redraft.

Draft Profile

As always, I will use the Undroppables Rookie Guide to evaluate and use their scores for my formula; you should also know to help you a leg up on the competition in your home league! All the first-round wide receivers are monsters regarding their profiles, expect them to have promising careers, and that’s a big bonus for dynasty managers. There are several players as well, like Skyy Moore and Alec Pierce, that will have great careers as well, based on their profiles. If you sign up for this guide, I promise you will have a leg up on your league mates when understanding the rookies this year.

Result

Time for our calculation! I love this wide receiver class, and I have prioritized them in my redrafts regarding mid-round to late-round picks. I will list them in order of how I see them drafted. Hopefully, it will help you win some of your leagues!

Drake London
Chris Olave
Treylon Burks
Skyy Moore
Jahan Dotson
Jalen Tolbert
Garrett Wilson
Wan’Dale Robinson
Christian Watson
Velus Jones Jr.
Alec Pierce

Good luck with your drafts this year, and please follow me on Twitter for all Redraft advice and my weekly articles at The Undroppables!