Safety is a fickle position where there are fewer season-to-season repeats of high finishes. Safeties with good deployment are ideal, with good deployment typically characterized as having a high percentage of snaps at either the strong safety or linebacker position.

The Dan Quinn, Gus Bradley and their Seattle Seahawks “Legion of Boom” defense popularized defensive schemes with heavy use of Cover-1 & Cover-3 coverages throughout the 2010s, which typically gave us a strong safety on each team to target. Recently the defenses of Vic Fangio and Brandon Staley which use a lot more two-high safety coverages (Cover-2, Cover-4 & Cover-6) are spreading throughout the league which reduces the number of players getting the deployment we look for to achieve high tackle numbers.

In IDP leagues that group safeties and cornerbacks into a combined defensive back position, the majority of high seasonal finishes are by safeties.  On average, 6-7 cornerbacks finish in the top 24 defensive backs.  For that reason, this study includes Safeties only.

For this Anatomy of a dynasty safety, Combine & Pro Day testing are sourced from Sports Reference and Mockdraftable. Scouting grades (for players drafted since 2014) and scouting reports (all players) come from NFL.com.

The Study Group

Like defensive end and linebacker, this group is all players drafted since 2011 with either three top 12 seasonal finishes or four top 24 seasonal finishes, plus a couple of early achievers. The following 14 players are included:

The list of safeties is about two-thirds the size of the defensive end and linebacker lists. This is just worth noting that as discussed above, safety has fewer repeat performances than defensive end or linebacker and it should be adjusted accordingly when valuing the position in rookie drafts, startup drafts, or trades.

Mark Barron is included in this list even though some of his high finishes were as a linebacker. Mark Barron was drafted and used as a safety early in his career in Tampa Bay, then switched to linebacker during his first full season with the St. Louis Rams in 2015, his 4th NFL season. Jordan Poyer is excluded from the group for a similar reason, being that drafted as a cornerback.

Draft Capital

First Round – 5 players
Second Round – 6 players
Third Round – 3 players

Dynasty safeties come from anywhere in the first two days of the NFL draft. For the rest of this analysis, I’m using all players drafted in the first three rounds since 2011 to compare to the study group.

Kyle Hamilton projects to be a top 10 pick in this year’s draft, which would make him the third player in the last 12 years to be drafted in the top 10 picks (Jamal Adams – 6th in 2017 & Mark Barron – 7th in 2012). Early first round safeties are very rare.

Weight

Under 195 pounds – 1 player
195 to 204 pounds – 4 players
205 to 214 pounds – 5 players
215 pounds and higher – 3 players

Tyrann Mathieu is the clear outlier as he is 9 pounds lighter and 2 inches shorter than every other player on the list. Even with Mathieu included the distribution of player weight in the study group is similar to all safeties drafted in the first three rounds.

40-Time

40 Time
4.40 seconds or faster – 0 players
4.41 to 4.50 seconds – 6 players
4.51 to 4.60 seconds – 6 players
4.61 seconds or slower – 2 players

There was some disappointment when Kyle Hamilton ran a 4.59 second 40-yard dash at the combine, but it does not matter. He is within the range of the other players in the group.

Speed Score

Under 95 – 4 players
95 to 100 – 6 players
101 to 105 – 0 players
Above 105 – 4 players

None of the Combine tests matter much for safeties, although the 40-yard dash and speed score are perhaps a little meaningful. About 30% of both the study group and control group had a speed score under 95.

Early Declares

(played 3 years in college)

Yes – 8 players
No – 6 players

After not mattering for Defensive End or Linebacker, being a 3 year college player appears to matter at Safety. 57% of the study group declared early compared to 45% of all first rounders, 42% of all second rounders and 14% of all third rounders.

NFL.com Draft Grade
Under 6.00 – 2 players
6.00 to 6.20 – 0 players
6.21 to 6.70 – 5 player
6.71 and higher – 3 players

Numerical draft grades on NFL.com go back to the 2014 class and are used here to represent the player’s film grade. A grade of 6 is a projected backup, 6.3 is “eventually will be an average starter”, 6.7 is “year 1 starter”. Justin Simmons and Kevin Byard, the two third rounders who were graded, have the lowest grades.

The threshold here is a grade of 6.2. Of all first, second and third round picks since 2014, one third graded worse than 6.2. This was not exclusive to the third round picks either. 4 of the 15 first rounders did not meet that minimum grade and 5 of the 27 second rounders didn’t either.

Style of Play from NFL.com Draft Profile

Strong Safety – 6 players
Free Safety – 8 players

We like players who play closer to the line of scrimmage because they have a better change of getting tackles. Unfortunately, it is hard to project what their eventual NFL usage is when they are prospects. We do our best to project deployment, much like how we project red zone usage, 3rd down usage & target share with offensive players. It is always good practice to be aware of our limitations projecting the future, and to stay flexible for any options that come at us.

Conclusion

This is the anatomy of a dynasty Safety:

• Round 1, 2, or 3 Draft Capital
• Speed Score of 95 or higher
• Players who declare early for the NFL draft
• NFL.com grade of 6.2 or higher

Follow me, David Kelly, a Canadian fantasy football player with an interest in IDP, on Twitter.

This article looks at the makeup of elite dynasty Linebackers, so we can better evaluate incoming rookies that are more likely to be successful fantasy assets. All the players here are true “off ball” Linebackers. Pass rushing outside linebackers are grouped with the Defensive Ends for Anatomy analysis.

Combine & Pro Day testing are sourced from Sports Reference and Mockdraftable. College statistics are taken from Sports Reference with the Games Played taken from each player’s profile on their school website. This is because Sports Reference does not count games played when a player had no statistics, which in turn impacts their per-game statistics.

The Study Group

Like Defensive End, I’ve chosen to use a list of players who have achieved multiple high seasonal finishes instead of relying on current dynasty rankings. This list all players drafted since 2011 with either three top 12 seasonal finishes or four top 24 seasonal finishes at the Linebacker position, plus several early achievers. The following 21 players are included:

Draft Capital

First Round – 7 players
Second Round – 8 players
Third Round – 2 players
Fourth Round – 3 players
Fifth Round – 1 player

First Round draft capital was very important for Defensive Ends. However, the NFL does not value Linebackers as highly, so it makes sense to see more second rounders make the study group, as less Linebackers are first round picks. It’s worth noting that since 2011 there have been about 20% more second round Linebackers than first round Linebackers.
For the rest of the analysis, I’ve used all first and second round picks since 2011 as a control group when comparing other metrics.

Weight

Under 230 pounds – 3 players
230 to 239 pounds – 10 players
240 to 250 pounds – 7 players

Linebackers have been in a narrow range for their weight, with some exceptions on the smaller side (Deion Jones, Telvin Smith and Jaylon Smith are all between 218 and 223 pounds). There is a small handful of first and second round linebackers who have been over 250 pounds who did not turn out to be successful.

40-Time

4.50 seconds or faster – 4 players
4.51 to 4.60 seconds– 6 players
4.61 to 4.70 seconds – 7 players
4.71 to 4.80 seconds – 4 players

Joe Schobert and Kiko Alonso are the slowest players in the study group with a 4.76 and 4.74 second 40 yard dash times respectively. A 4.75 second 40 yard dash ends up being a decent threshold, however consider that the NFL has continued to move towards being a pass heavy league, and Linebackers now must be able to play in coverage to stay on the field enough to be fantasy relevant. At the same time there are quite a few players who fall within 4.51 and 4.70 seconds, so we don’t need to over emphasize the very fast players either.

20-Yard Shuttle

Under 4.2 seconds – 4 players
4.51 to 4.30 seconds – 5 players
4.31 to 4.40 seconds – 6 players
4.41 to 4.50 seconds – 1 player

The study group performed similarly to the control group for all other combine tests. I wanted to show the short shuttle results as that drill at least looks like it simulates the movement skills you would expect Linebackers to be good at, by measuring their ability to move side to side while diagnosing a play.

K.J. Wright is the player with the slowest short shuttle time (4.46). This drill gets skipped by a lot of players as well (7 of the 21 players in the study group), making it unhelpful.

Early Declares

(played 3 years in college)

Yes – 6 players
No – 15 players

Similar to Defensive End, being a 3 year college player isn’t an advantage for the Linebackers. Once you filter out all the study group players drafted after round 2 – none of whom declared early – the proportion of players that declared early from the study group is the same (35%) as all first and second round linebackers since 2011.

Career Tackles per game

Less than 5 tackles/game – 6 players
5 to 6 tackles/game – 3 players
6 to 7 tackles/game – 3 players
7 to 8 tackles/game – 4 players
Greater than 8 tackles/game – 5 players
Tackles per game in their first two college years (ie: FR, SO & RS-FR seasons)
Less than 2 tackles/game – 5 players
2 to 4 tackles/game – 3 players
4 to 6 tackles/game – 4 players
6 to 8 tackles/game – 6 players
Greater than 8 tackles/game – 2 players

This is an attempt to quantify whether a player was productive in college based on tackles per game. The interesting thing with the career tackle per game numbers is that all the players in the study group drafted after round two have less than 6 tackles per game for their career. Once the first and second round players are isolated only two failed to reach that mark (Deion Jones and Kiko Alonso). Meanwhile looking at all first and second rounders drafted since 2011, more than half (28 of 53 players) fail to reach the 6 tackles per game mark.

It is worth going back and looking at the career productivity of all drafted players to see if later round picks just aren’t as productive as their peers with better draft capital, but for now it should at least be concerning if a first or second round draft pick didn’t reach 6 tackles per game in college.

The threshold for Tackles per game in the first two seasons is about 4, but almost all the players who miss that mark miss the career 6 tackles per game mark as well.

Conclusion

This is the general anatomy of a dynasty Linebacker.

Round 1 or 2 Draft Capital
4.75 or faster 40-yard dash
6 career tackles per game (at least for first and second round picks).

There is a lot less that useable at Linebacker than there is at Defensive End, and that’s ok. It is better knowing that most testing does not matter so you don’t chase it. Personally, I have liked to chase players who declare for the draft early, but at least here I think I’ve shown that it isn’t worth your time to worry about.

Follow me, David Kelly, a Canadian fantasy football player with an interest in IDP, on Twitter.