Dynasty Market Watch | Players to Buy (February 2024)

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February 2, 2024

Dynasty Market Watch | Players to Buy (February 2024)

The dynasty offseason is a chance to capitalize on market inefficiencies in players with a chance to not worry about positional needs. Even if you are a contender in 2024, the offseason is all about accumulating assets and finding the mispriced players in your leagues. It does not matter what your starting lineup looks like this early in the offseason. What does matter is making sure you don’t miss out on the time to buy or sell a player.

Kendre Miller

Before Kendre Miller’s 2024 audition in the season finale against Atlanta, he was flying under the radar. With Alvin Kamara’s late scratch on Sunday and Miller active for the first time in 2 months, he showed that post-Kamara life for the Saints doesn’t have to be as scary as it sounds. With averaging 5.6 yards a carry on 13 carries, the day 2 running back showed why the Saints drafted him even after signing Jamaal Williams to a three-year deal and having Kamara. While he only had one catch in Week 17, it was a smooth out route that provided a glimpse of his pass-catching abilities.

A huge part of dynasty fantasy football and winning the offseason is knowing the contract situations of players. An intermediate manager may think that since Kamara and Williams are on the books for next season and beyond Miller will never get a chance to emerge from this backfield. Although that is good to know, an even bigger part of winning the offseason is predicting and understanding teams’ cap space and if they have money to spend. Not only do the Saints not have money to spend, but they are also currently $75 million dollars over the cap for 2024 and that is with only 32 players. Their restructuring of contracts may finally really catch up to them and this is a situation where no player is safe when it comes to getting moved off the team. An ugly rebuild is ahead for the Saints, and the safest bet of any RB to be on the team in 2024 is Kendre Miller.

If I am not a front-runner in my league next year, I am comfortable trading Derrick Henry and a sweetener for Miller. I am also open to trading a late second for him if you are looking for a young RB with how weak this rookie class is at the RB position.

Honorable Mention – Zack Moss

Major appeal to me whether he gets a shot from another team in Free Agency or whether that is even coming back to Indy and being a premier handcuff.

Stashes – Chris Rodriguez, Rico Dowdle

Michael Wilson

Michael Wilson is a player that is a major buy for me this offseason. The rookie out of Stanford caught 38 of his 58 targets on the season scoring three touchdowns. He also scored a touchdown on 6 catches and a career-high 95 yards while serving as the main perimeter Wide Receiver in Hollywood Brown’s absence. While his stats are solid, they are not overwhelming which presents a major value.

While the Cardinals’ fourth overall pick could certainly be Marvin Harrison Jr., that will not suppress Wilson’s opportunity as he is currently one of three Wide Receivers under contract in 2024 for the Cardinals along with slot receiver Rondale Moore and depth veteran Zach Pascal. The Cardinals drafting a WR in the first or second round is very likely, but there is a very real chance Wilson enters his second season as the clear WR2 in the desert.

Wilson is currently ranked as the WR61 on Fantasy Pros behind the likes of Rashod Bateman, Brandin Cooks, and Gabe Davis which is borderline shocking. In terms of draft capital, Wilson is currently valued as a mid-late second which is appropriate given the wealth of WR in this upcoming rookie class. My ideal trade for Wilson would be sending a more established and popular name for someone you are just “taking a chance” on.

Cole Kmet

When finding my dynasty Tight End, I am prioritizing three things:

1. Domination of the tight end targets on his team.
2. A top 3 target share on his team.
3. A contract that tells me he is both things above.

Now you must think a player with all three of those things must only be a top-tier dynasty tight end and you are smart to assume that. However, Cole Kmet is all three of those things at only 24 years old, yet he is not even considered a TE1 in dynasty. This is one of the biggest market inefficiencies in all of dynasty and it may not last much longer into next season.

The Notre Dame Product finished second on his team in targets in the first year of a 4 year $50M contract and had 29 more targets than the next closest receiver. He was the TE8 this year picking up from his TE7 season in 2022, and he was TE9 in points per game emphasizing that he is not a TE1 just because of availability. Speaking of availability, he has yet to miss a game due to injury in his four-year career. Whether it is Justin Fields at QB or whoever they pick in the draft, he has one of the safest QB situations of any tight end.

I am more than comfortable parting with a second-round rookie pick to acquire Kmet in any stage of contention. I would also be more than happy to add something to any tight end such as Dalton Schultz, Luke Musgrave, and Chigoziem Okonkwo to be able to acquire Kmet.

First Look at 2024 Rookie Wide Receivers (1-5)

Sean Thomas

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February 2, 2024

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First Look at 2024 Rookie Wide Receivers (1-5)

SEAN THOMAS 2024 NFL DRAFT WIDE RECEIVER RANKINGS (1-5)

1. Marvin Harrison Jr. – OSU

Marvin Harrison Jr Ohio GIFfrom Marvin Harrison Jr GIFs

What can you say that hasn’t already been told? Massive size, 4.3 speed, and pedigree of one of the best to ever do it. Marvin is an alien; he’s not from this Earth, and I will not be convinced otherwise. His size, speed, body control, and football IQ don’t make sense, and some call him the best prospect we’ve seen in fifteen years. I’m not a massive gambler; I prefer walks in cool, crisp air or a lovely basket of well-seasoned fries. But if I were a gambling man, I would place all my chips into the basket that Marvin is just about the surest, most impossible-to-miss prospect I’ve ever seen, and as a Steeler fan, I’m just gracious, there’s very little chance he ends up in the AFC North.

Ceiling Pro Comp: Calvin Johnson Jr.
Ideal Landing Spot: Chicago/Arizona

2. Rome Odunze – Washington

Rome Odunze GIFfrom Rome Odunze GIFs

Smooth as butter, Rome is a talent that is not appreciated enough for being a three-level-threat receiver on one of the best teams in the country. He stands at 6’3 with a dominant 50/50 catch point ability paired with routes that create separation like he’s 5’8, 160. Rome has the skill set to become an alpha in his offense on day one and an alpha wide receiver in the entire NFL. What separated Rome from Nabers for me was the Translation Longevity of Rome’s game. Even when he loses a step, Rome will make corners look silly on double moves when he’s 31. Nabers’ game relies on splash plays and athletic ability over fundamentals and technique.

Ceiling Pro Comp: Keenan Allen
Ideal Landing Spot: Tennessee Titans

3. Malik Nabers – LSU

Malik Nabers Lsu GIFfrom Malik Nabers GIFs

Some consider Malik to be the #1 guy in the class. Malik can score from literally anywhere on the field with his deep-threat ability. Nabers boasting a phenomenal YAC attribute for the LSU Tigers makes him a prospect that will leave OCs foaming at the mouth come draft day. I expect huge plays and an immediate spark for whatever offense is lucky enough to draft Malik. If he were to land in LA with Justin Herbert, I foresee him leading the NFL in average depth of target right out of the gate and for potentially the next five years.

Ceiling Pro Comp: Ja’marr Chase
Ideal Landing Spot: Los Angeles Chargers

4. Brenden Rice – USC

Genetics can’t be measured at the combine, but they do help. Being in an offense with a self-proclaimed messiah of football can often lead to fewer headlines, even while carrying the GOAT’s last name. Brenden does everything asked of a receiver at an extremely high level, and there are no weaknesses to his game. I’m higher than just about everyone on the planet regarding Rice, and I’m prepared to stand on business! I don’t want to sling around a Puka ceiling loosely, but I see many of the same traits I saw in Amon Ra St. Brown coming out of USC. In this case, we have a 6’3, 200-pound frame with the name Rice attached. I expect big things and can’t wait for him to gain the notoriety he deserves in the coming months as we approach the draft.

Ceiling Pro Comp: Michael Thomas
Ideal Landing Spot: Houston Texans

5. Brian Thomas Jr. – LSU

Big, strong, fast, consistent hands, and a great smile. LSU’s Wide receiver room was eerily similar regarding absolute danger levels compared to the 2019 rendition of Ja’marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. Previously, I compared Nabers to Ja’marr, and let me preface this by saying that I think Thomas is dangerous. Brian Thomas is dangerous in a different font from Jefferson, which I don’t believe needs much defense because of how different the playstyles are. He doesn’t break you down with ankle-shattering routes or euro steps but instead uses something more physical.

Brian resides more in the Tee Higgins range for me with his powerful build and deep-threat ability. Thomas doesn’t possess “blistering” speed, but at 6′ 4, paired with that stride length, if you blink, he’s gone. He will make corners come up and respect his physical strength on short to intermediate routes, allowing him to take you over the top for six. He is the first wideout from this class that I believe will require a better-than-average scheme fit to be full-time successful, but I do not doubt that Thomas will pop off the page at the next level when given the opportunity.

Ceiling Pro Comp: Tee Higgins
Ideal Landing Spot: Jacksonville Jaguars

Looking Back to Look Ahead | Senior Bowl WRs & RBs

Joe Kuvetakis

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January 29, 2024

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Looking Back to Look Ahead | Senior Bowl WRs & RBs

With Senior Bowl practices set to begin on Tuesday, I wanted to look back at the last handful of Senior Bowls, particularly at the Wide Receivers and Running Backs, to create some general expectations for the 2024 class.

We can deduce a great deal from the last three years alone, and we will get into some NFL and Fantasy Rookie Draft Data for these two position groups. This week, though, we will get inundated with highlight clips, opinions on players, and some excellent info. Before we take that all in, let’s adjust our lenses.

Based on recent history, I want to examine what’s important, what we should look for, and how we can apply this to fantasy.

What’s Important and What to Look For.

#1 – Most of the WRs and RBs in attendance will not be drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft, nor your rookie drafts.

Early declares still dominate the first-round landscapes. Right or wrong, conventional wisdom suggests that if a player broke out earlier in college, they are likelier to break out early in the NFL. This is all, not to mention our preference for younger players in the dynasty. Thus, the early declares get the draft capital in both NFL and fantasy settings.

**#2 – Most of these WRs and RBs will get drafted.**

These guys are still college all-star-level talents, and even though they’re older and thus less desirable than their early breakout/early declare counterparts, they got invited to the Senior Bowl for a reason.

#3 – The NFL wants more data points on these players.

The NFL Combine will primarily focus on their “measurable” athleticism. Still, the Senior Bowl is the last opportunity for these players to showcase their on-field skills in practice and game settings against high-level competition.

#4 – These players have something to prove.

Maybe they went to a small school and didn’t compete against elite programs. Or they were stuck in a bad situation or behind a star player. Maybe they transferred and had a late breakout. Perhaps a WR needs to prove they can separate quickly against man coverage, or an RB needs to demonstrate his pass-blocking and pass-catching chops. These practices and this game give them a chance to prove to NFL scouts that they can do something to increase their draft stock.

Some players can prove what they need to in one or two practices. Last year, Tank Dell and Puka Nacua, among many others, called it a week after a day or two of practice sessions. They got in, answered the questions they came there to answer in practice and drills, and got out. There is no need to risk injury; see you at the combine. So…

#5 – Make note of players who leave early.

These are the guys who proved what they needed to. They and their agents will determine they’ve raised enough stock to skip the remaining practices and the game.

#6 – The practice sessions are more important for some players than the game.

We will be scouring the coverage of the practices and making note of who’s showing out and who’s leaving early.

#7 – Starting this year, underclassmen who have declared for the NFL Draft can participate.

This is an important change that will shift our outlooks moving forward. For this 2024 class, of these two position groups, two underclassmen RBs are participating (Jaylen Wright and Rasheen Ali). We’ll be paying close attention and considering how their evaluations differ from the rest of the group.

Considering those points, let’s look at the draft data to set expectations. Below are the complete lists of WRs and RBs who accepted invites to the Senior Bowl from 2021 – 2023:

Wide Receivers

Running Backs

How Can We Apply This Data to Fantasy?

Since 2021, among a group of 76 WRs and RBs, the Senior Bowl has produced three selections in the first round of the NFL Draft. Those players were Devonta Smith (1.10), Kadarius Toney (1.20), and Najee Harris (1.24). Four players had first-round ADPs in our rookie drafts (according to MFL). Going back to point #1 above, most of these guys will not be first-round selections.

It follows that the data points we’re gathering from the Senior Bowl will begin assisting us in the second rounds of our rookie drafts and beyond.

That may not excite you, but that is where the edge lies. We get what falls to us in the first round without aggressive trading. Our league-mates are more likely to follow ADP early, and in general, they’re not going out on a limb from consensus rankings. The divergences happen later in the draft, and that is where these Senior Bowl participants will be available to us.

In other words, the data points we get from the Senior Bowl will help you make decisions at the points in your draft where there is less consensus.

This may seem obvious, but if we pay attention, we may get information we can act on.

Knowing Tank Dell was talking trash to any DB that would dare matchup with him, that he was un-guardable, and that he left after two days of practice can lead you to draft him over Cedric Tillman in Round 3.

Knowing Tyjae Spears can run ankle-breaking routes and catch out of the backfield can quell concerns over the absence of an ACL.

These data points can lead you to the right decisions when you’re on the clock.

Looking Ahead

We will track these data points as the Senior Bowl practices unfold. Today’s takeaway is that they can matter and help you get an edge.

Another thing to note on the RBs: Running backs often peak while playing on their rookie contracts. That’s especially true of the non-early declares, aka seniors. The window for NFL success is a year shorter. Thus, we must decide to fish or cut bait on these guys sooner.

I will dive into some predictive indicators later this offseason, but you can probably draw some conclusions from the list above. Going back to the 2021 class, out of the 11 Senior Bowl participants, I would argue only 4 of those players are still relevant (Najee Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson, Khalil Herbert, and Michael Carter). If you go to the ’22 class, again, we’re down to 4 we still care about for fantasy (Rachaad White, Jerome Ford, Brian Robinson, and Dameon Pierce). Except for Jerome Ford, who spent his rookie year behind Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, the other 7 made a good amount of noise as rookies.

Looking ahead to the 2023 class, it’s probably not too early to start divesting your shares of the running backs who came into the NFL older and did not flash in year one. More on that to come this offseason, but all eyes are on this senior class this week. Check back in later this week for my consolidated notes.

The UNveiled: AP Devy Strategy

Brendon Booth

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January 29, 2024

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Ah, late January. What a time in the fantasy space. All the counting is done, the stats are tallied, and the trophies and winnings are meted out. The 2024 rookie class has all declared. The NFL Playoffs are in full swing, and the redraft casuals have slunk into the background like Homer Simpson into the bush.

If you listen closely, however, you can hear a faint skittering. Imagine an ASMR of roaches running around on your kitchen floor. That’s the sound. That faint skittering is the clamor of fantasy football degenerates.

Degenerates like me – writing this.

Degenerates like you – reading this.

The fantasy season never stops in Devy; it changes its leaves like the maples in Ann Arbor. We’re here together because the grind never stops. I don’t stop writing. You don’t stop reading. You’re looking for that edge. That singular nugget that will set you apart in your leagues. I’m here to give it to you. I will do the work so you won’t have to.

Let’s get a jump start on some 2024 Devy targets before your league mates. Most eyes are on Dynasty rookie mocks and rankings. Those are for 2024. In Devy, we’re looking at 2025 or 2026. They’re playing checkers. We’re playing 5-D chess. They’re zigging. We’re zagging. We’re uncovering the new projected starters and class risers that will bring value in Devy startup drafts and are good trade targets in established leagues.

In startups, we want to focus on later picks. We want to uncover the gems from smaller or less hyped schools.

In established leagues, we want to identify guys with a good likelihood of NFL production that you can acquire in exchange for your high-production points-getters who helped you on the campus side but likely won’t transition to the NFL side.

This is the edge.

Irresponsibily Early Top 10 Devy League Targets for 2024

1. Rocco Becht – QB – Iowa State – 2023 Starter

Rocco, son of former NFL TE Anthony Becht, is entering his Redshirt (RS) Sophomore season for the Cyclones in 2024. He’s coming off a season that saw expected highs and lows for a Freshman starter. Against Oklahoma, Becht finished with a 45.5% comp on 33 passes and two interceptions. That isn’t good. The 2023 Liberty Bowl was a different story. That game was Becht’s coming out party. He threw for 446 yards and three touchdowns, following another three-TD performance in the last game of the regular season. Becht isn’t on a lot of radars. He didn’t register a Fantrax ADP in 2023, which will change. Becht is a “get in on the ground floor” prospect. Early production, a (roughly)3:1 TD/INT rate as a Freshman, and NFL bloodlines.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your QB4 in startups; Target as a waiver wire pickup or trade throw-in.

2. Taylen Green – QB – Arkansas – 2023 Starter

Green was the dual-threat starter at Boise State in 2023 after showcasing his skills in the conference championship game, throwing for two TDs and rushing for two. He finished the season 5th in QB YPC among QBs with 75 or more carries. Green announced he was transferring to Arkansas. The departure of KJ Jefferson in Fayetteville left an opening for a QB of that style with a system already in place. At 6’6″, Green is a tall QB and a long strider in the run game. He’ll likely play at U of A in 2024 and 2025, giving him time to add more bulk and showcase his talents at an SEC school.

PATH FORWARD

Draft in Round 12 or later in startups; Target in trades.

3. Alex Orji – QB – Michigan – 2024 QB Competition

Orji isn’t a “dual-threat” QB. He is a triple-threat QB/KR. You read that right. Kick returner. Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh thinks Orji could be a great one. “Alex Orji has got a chance to maybe be one of the greatest kick returners of all time.” It’s not often a QB returns kicks, but here we are. Orji was used sparingly during the Wolverines’ National Title run and will enter Spring Ball in a competition at the QB position. Acquiring him in Devy is a wager on his athleticism. He may stick at Quarterback. He may become a TE. Nobody is sure right now, but I’m banking on the athleticism of a Michigan QB recruit who weighs 235+ and is faster and more elusive than the other guys on the field.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your QB5 in startups; Target as a waiver wire pickup or trade throw-in.

4. CJ Donaldson – RB – West Virginia – 2023 Starter

Donaldson is what some people would call a “bruiser.” He is listed at 238 lbs. running a 40-yard dash somewhere in the 4.4s; he’s a load to bring down. This is not a satellite back. With only nine receptions as a true Sophomore, Donaldson’s future lies between the tackles and picking up the tough yards. He has the physical profile and early production that screams “Top 12 Dynasty finish.” A significant indicator of this is his TD production that matched more highly touted running backs such as TreVeon Henderson and Bucky Irving and more than 2024 rookies Jonathan Brooks, MarShawn Lloyd, and Frank Gore Jr. The 2024 season should be Donaldson’s statement to the NFL that he’s a great one.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your RB2 in startups; Target in trades.

5. Trey Holly – RB – LSU – 2024 RB Committee

Did you know that 10,523 yards is the Louisiana state high school rushing record? I bet you didn’t, and now you do. Holly did that. He is one of the most coveted running backs in state history, and his role for the Bayou Bengals will be established in 2024. Holly is a smaller running back. Please think of the stature of De’Von Achane or Deuce Vaughn, and he has the 4.3 40-yard dash time to go with it. Holly and his 225 lb. backfield mate, Kaleb Jackson, will look to create a Thunder and Lightning tandem in Baton Rouge and lead the program back to Championship contention. This Spring Ball season will tell us more where he fits.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your RB6 in startups; Target as a waiver wire pickup or trade throw-in.

6. Jordan Louie – RB – North Carolina – 2024 Backup

Jordan Louie is a few years away. Sharing a backfield with a bucketload of NFL prospects, including the presumptive 2025 #1 Omarion Hampton, won’t be easy. A true Freshman in 2023, Louie could elect to redshirt to give himself time to establish a role. He could enter the transfer portal at some point, as well. Only time will tell, but with a good size and speed profile, Louie projects as an all-around bell-cow that will make waves when he decides to enter the NFL Draft between 2026 and 2028.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your last RB in startups; Target as a waiver wire pickup.

7. Kojo Antwi – WR – Ohio State

It may be redundant to list the Ohio State wide receivers that have impacted fantasy since WR coach Brian Hartline ascended to WR Guru, but I’m gonna. Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Chris Olave. That’s a lot. Wait! I wasn’t done. Garrett Wilson, Jameson Williams, Terry McLaurin, and Parris Campbell.

Apart from Egbuka returning to school, the next crop of 6-8 studs that will emerge is to be determined. The history of success sustained by the Buckeyes program means that it’s more likely than not that taking a chance on receivers recruited to the program will pay off. Enter Antwi. He stands 6′, 200 lbs., fast, explosive, “a playmaker”. It seems to fit the profile. While he didn’t break out during his second year, he has stuck with Hartline’s program and impressed his coach. Antwi is worth the flyer as a later-round addition and will be easy to move on from if he doesn’t break out in 2024.

PATH FORWARD

Draft late in startups; Target as a waiver add.

8. Monaray Baldwin – WR – Baylor

Tyreek Hill vibes. Baldwin exudes Tyreek Hill vibes. He can run 23 MPH. Monaray bench presses 405, squats 550, and power cleans 300. He’s also a team leader, jumping on Baylor teammates for not putting in enough effort. Baldwin’s production may not get him to the league, but his freakish athleticism and competitiveness should. Entering his Senior year in 2024, he seems to have found his niche in the Bears’ offense. Finishing with similar fantasy points scored, yards (565 and 623), TDs, yards per catch, and yards per game two seasons in a row alludes to his LACK of value in campus leagues, but things break right for him; he could become a star for cheap. Remember, Tyreek was a JUCO recruit and a 5th rounder out of West Alabama, who had 281 yards receiving as a Junior returner/gadget player at Oklahoma State.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your WR7 in startups; Target as a waiver add or trade throw-in.

9. Noah Rogers – WR – North Carolina State

You might recall my effusive praise of Ohio State WR recruits when discussing Kojo Antwi. Well, for the sake of brevity, I won’t repeat it. Go back and re-read if you forgot, I’ll wait. OK, now that you’re back, apply that to Noah Rogers. But wait! You might be saying out loud now. The header says “North Carolina State.” Well, it does. That’s because, for whatever reason(s), Rogers decided to enter the transfer portal and take his talents to Raleigh. Rogers was a Top 50 WR recruit nationally, so the talent is there. He should be able to thrive in a less loaded program, and with no statistics after two seasons at OSU, there won’t be a market for him. Take advantage now.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as late as Antwi in startups; Target as a waiver add.

10. Amari NiBlack – TE – Texas

Uh oh – here comes another juke! The header says, “Texas,” but the uniform in the picture is from Alabama. We have another portal transfer! If I were NiBlack, I would have left, too. The Alabama offense isn’t geared toward tight-end production. Texas, however, is a more TE-friendly environment. Ja’Tavion Sanders, Texas’ TE1 in 2023, had 682 receiving yards on 45 catches. That was 3rd behind Brock Bowers and Dallin Holker. By contrast, NiBlack had 20 catches for 327 yards. That’s less than half the production. But NiBlack had a higher yard per catch than Sanders, Bowers, and Hooker. Double the opportunities by moving to a new program. NiBlack is a Top 5 TE, and you’ll be the first to see it coming. Well, the second.

PATH FORWARD

Draft as your TE2 in startups; Target in trades.

Caveats

I have a couple of caveats to finish this up. First, I don’t like writing about situations I don’t mirror. I put my money where my mouth is, so these are all players I own or will trade for or pick up. The second is that these situations are fluid. Spring practices may change some things, so follow me here and on Twitter and YouTube as I keep us up to date on things like that. I need to know, too.

Finally, I suggest making trades, but you’ll want to know who you should trade away. That’s next time. See you then.

2024 NFL Draft QB’s First Look: Player Ranks 1-5 (Post CFP)

Sean Thomas

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January 25, 2024

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2024 NFL Draft QB’s First Look: Player Ranks 1-5 (Post CFP)

Sean Thomas 2024 NFL Draft Quarterback Rankings (1-5)

1. Jayden Daniels – LSU

Jayden Daniels stands listed at a LONG 6 ‘4”, 210 pounds. Having started his career at Arizona State under Herm Edwards, Jayden looked to be oozing with talent from the jump. Flanked by San Franciso Wide Receiver Brandon Aiyuk, Jayden started his first career game in 2019 as a true freshman. He has been around the block a few times, being a starter ever since that day. Upon transferring to LSU for the 2022 season, he scored solid stats, boasting a 17-3 touchdown to interception ratio. The 2023 season is where shit got real. Jayden put up a 40-3 TD to Interception ratio, passing for just four thousand yards.

On top of the impressive leap in passing, he ran for 1100 yards and led his Tigers to a 9-3 record. Jayden is blessed with the tools that make your jaw hit the floor, bringing excitement again to football. The arm possessed by Daniels, paired with his rushing ability, is something you seldom see in an NFL draft prospect. Aside from these qualities, Jayden is a humble young man who stood on the stage a few weeks ago and accepted the Heisman trophy. What jumps off the tape to me when watching Jayden is his calm demeanor in the pocket.

Quite often, you see him doing something I call “Burrowing.” Burrowing is when the QB can make the rush miss while keeping both hands on the ball for ball security. In addition, he carefully keeps both eyes downfield to locate his target. He has a bazooka of an arm that is hand-crafted with gold and silk. He puts gas on the ball and can place it in the receiver’s hip pocket from 40 yards out.

If the U.S. Army were to create a drone that could drop moonshot footballs into receivers from 30,000 feet, they would have to paint a purple and yellow “5” on the side of it. Flanking Daniels this season has been two talents that have flourished beyond expectations. Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas Jr. have eaten fruit from the tree of success, Jayden Daniels. These elite tools, mixed with a professional young man at the podium and the face of a franchise, have landed him at the top of my rankings for the 2024 NFL QB Draft Class.

Ceiling Player Comp: Lamar Jackson
Ideal Landing Spot: New Orleans

2. Drake Maye – UNC

Drake comes from a long lineage of UNC bloodline. Drake’s father, Mark, suited up as Quarterback for the Tar Heels during the 1984-1987 seasons. His brother Luke is a campus legend, as he was a prized and valued member of the 2017 National Championship run. Not only did his brother Beau play for the Tar Heels, but his OTHER brother also played for Florida as part of their baseball team, which went on to win the national championship in 2017. Drake may have never won a national title but is considered the best athlete of the Maye family litter.

He plays with a level of calm poise you rarely see in a young man. Drake does not rely on flashy arm angles or elite athletic ability regarding his legs, but this kid can play football. That’s not to say he can’t make people miss or throw touchdowns left-handed, but that’s not what he falls back on when the going gets tough. He makes every throw on the field that professionals make. He has a level of athleticism that doesn’t jump off the page but keeps middle linebackers up at night due to his ability to pull it out any time and place; this makes your read on RPO even more difficult.

Drake has started the last two seasons (2022 and 2023) by compiling about eight thousand yards and 62 touchdowns, which is not an exaggeration. Having spent so much time running RPO sets in college, he will be able to bring a traditional quarterback style and an ever-changing NFL offense to a new school look. He gives me old-soul vibes, and he will have no problem winning over any locker room. During his time at UNC, he had solid talent around him, but only some people would explode off the page. Most notably, his wide receiver from the 2022 season, Josh Downs. That gives me confidence, knowing he can go into a situation without the best weapons and the sturdiest coaching staff and STILL turn water into wine.

What matters to me most about Maye is his ability to get everybody involved. This can also be a sign of no true alpha pass catcher, but this makes life hard for defensive coordinators to take away what he wants to do honestly. The top 3 receivers for UNC this past season all had roughly the same number of yards, and he’s not afraid to utilize the tight end, with Bryson Nesbit reeling in about 600 yards and five touchdowns.

I look forward to Drake taking a page out of his brother’s playbook at the next level and acting as a floor general, bringing out the best in all those around him.

Ceiling Player Comp: Dak Prescott
Ideal Landing Spot: New England

3. Caleb Williams – USC

Caleb. Williams. Maybe I’m wrong putting him this far down the list, although 3rd out of however many total prospects is nothing to sneeze about. Caleb began his career at the University of Oklahoma under Lincoln Riley. During his initial time on campus, he spent his days backing up former University of South Carolina Quarterback Spencer Rattler. Upon winning the job at Oklahoma, he went on to have a stellar year, which translated to him following his head coach to USC and becoming a Trojan for his final two years of college. Caleb went on to have a dazzling 2022 season where he displayed his absolute rocket ship of an arm and creativity, extending plays in the pocket. Williams went on to win the Heisman award in 2022, capping off a fantastic 11-3 season and being 8-1 in conference play.

The 2023 season seemed to be more of a kick in the pants than a victory lap for Caleb Williams in terms of overall success. For a regular run-of-the-mill prospect, a team built by Lincoln Riley was assembled on promises of F-150’s and cash. This was, for lack of a better word, a disappointment, not only for the team but for Caleb as well. I have Caleb down at #3 for this exact reason.

There is no denying this young man’s God-given talent to throw a football hard, but his numbers against Top-25 opponents versus other opponents are puzzling. Caleb did great at kicking the crap out of opponents like Nevada and boasted a 70% completion rating that averaged about 320 yards through the air. Against Top-25 teams, his numbers dropped to 51% completion rating and 172 average yards in the air. That is quite the cliff to be stepping off when it comes to playing against other guys who will play on Sunday. Sure, it’s nice to beat the hell out of guys who will be coaching high school football next year, but I need to see you succeed against the best to be crowned the messiah of football.

The issues don’t stop there. As many players do, Caleb wears his heart on his sleeve while on the field, but a claim came out off the field before this college season ended that made me take an even further step back on Caleb. It has come out of Caleb’s camp that he would like part ownership in whatever team decides to draft him. We have seen this in other sports, primarily soccer, only after “GOAT” or even “Very Good” status has already been achieved, not after losing to Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Washington, and probably Utah a second time.

Caleb Williams is still an absolute phenom of talent, yet I struggle to believe he can fit into any locker room like past 1.01 QBs. Guys like Bryce Young, Trevor Lawrence, and Joe Burrow could be placed into any locker room and win over everyone by the end of training camp. Caleb must land with a coach who finds ways to pluck the talent and stroke the ego in a formula that brings the team along with him. A perfect example of who I think could do this is a guy like Mike McDaniel, but unfortunately, there’s only one of him, and he’s not in Chicago.

After all this negativity, you must give him flowers for his positive attributes. Caleb is the best improviser in the class, and it’s not close. The NFL is rigid and challenging, but the great QBs find ways to make plays off-schedule to extend the play, drive, and season. Caleb is elite in turning his back to the play but keeping track of where everyone is, doing so with eyes in the back of his head, ripping a sidearm ball past the earhole of a linebacker and right into his receiver’s gut.

The kid can play ball. He’s undersized and built like Baker Mayfield, but that hasn’t hurt any aspect of his physical or mental game. When given the opportunity, he can efficiently navigate the pocket and has the legs to run for big yards. He’s not Lamar Jackson-like athletic, but he’s equally athletic as other quarterbacks in the league. On paper, he’s a mind-blowing candidate. I have my reservations. Could I be completely wrong? Absolutely. But I don’t think he is the guy I would want to be the face of my franchise for the next 10-15 years as opposed to the two previously listed candidates.

Ceiling Player Comp: Josh Allen
Ideal Landing Spot: Washington Commanders

4. Michael Penix – Washington

Michael Penix has been through one of the most adverse college stories we’ve seen in a long time. Having started his college career in 2018 as a true freshman at Indiana, Penix could only play three games before tearing his ACL and ending his season. Penix would remain at Indiana only to suffer the same fate in 2020 upon tearing his other ACL. Many believed we had seen the peak of Michael’s career as he had been cursed with debilitating injuries, and doubt began to cloud the future of the young superstar.

Michael transferred to Washington and started his career as a Husky in 2022, putting up dazzling numbers, including his current high of 4,641 yards. In 2023, Penix and the Huskies exploded and are currently set to play in the College Football Playoff, boasting a 13-0 record. Penix would be officially labeled as a left-handed pocket passer with an affinity for the deep ball. These past two seasons, he’s been paired with superstar Wide Receiver Rome Odunze, who has generated an electric chemistry with Penix, reminiscent of Blake Lively and Ryan Reynolds since day one.

Penix is the least rushing dependent of any of the QBs above. He relies heavily on his pocket presence and arm talent. Not to say Penix can’t escape the pocket when needed, but the pocket is precisely where Michael thrives and is most confident. Penix can bring serious value to a team with his cerebral approach and ability to keep teams in two high safety sets.

I envision Michael as a career backup with nothing to turn your nose up at. Traditionally, Draft Classes have one to two guys pop at the QB position, and the others fizzle out unless it’s the class with Herbert, Burrow, and Tua in which everybody popped. Penix can land in an organization and provide solid depth on day one. He takes care of the ball, pushes it downfield, and can extend plays. I foresee him being in the NFL for a very long time. As he is left-handed, placing him in a system that isn’t already built around it could be challenging.

Being left-handed versus right-handed doesn’t sound like much of a problem, but many plays in the NFL are built around timing and the timing of every single move of the QB from the snap. Penix’s stock seemed to shoot through the roof upon battling Quinn Ewers and Texas as he dealt some seriously impressive dimes and led his team to the ultimate victory. Based on the volume of talented signal callers in this class, I imagine Penix will be taken late in the first round, potentially early second. If Penix were to be in the class of 2022, I would firmly place him as the #1 QB taken off the board. Regarding team fit for Penix, I would love to see him maybe take the reins in Minnesota, as it appears they are ready to move on from elder statesman Kirk Cousins. This landing spot would bode well because even if they lose Justin Jefferson in the offseason, he would still have Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson to lean on in year one, not to mention anybody else they may bring in.

Ceiling Player Comp: Kenny Pickett
Ideal Landing Spot: Minnesota Vikings

5. Bo Nix – Oregon

Like most of the class listed above, Bo is an elder statesman of college football. It is considered something NFL teams value since the longer you stay in school, the more reps you get, the more developed you become, and the more ready you are to learn an NFL offense efficiently and effectively. Bo followed in his father Patrick’s footsteps and started his college career at the University of Auburn.

As a true freshman against his eventual team, the Oregon Ducks, and current starting Chargers Quarterback Justin Herbert, Bo was able to lead his Auburn Tigers to a comeback win and cement himself as the “Guy” on campus. That same season, he toppled Alabama in the Iron Bowl and cemented himself in Auburn History. Nix would spend the first three seasons of his collegiate career with the Tigers upon transferring westward to the University of Swag – Oregon University. Nix’s game appeared to mature along the way throughout his career. After some injuries in his final year at Auburn, Nix’s rushing averages went down, and his passing numbers went up. Having never surpassed 2500 yards at Auburn, in his last two seasons at Oregon, he put up an eye-popping 7,700 yards and 69 touchdowns while remaining a rushing threat.

Early in his college career, I believed him to be nothing but a Sam Ehlinger clone, which may still be what he ultimately ends up being. Yet the playstyle maturity arc, efficiency, size, and dual-threat ability keep me returning. Five QBs in this class going in the first round sounds asinine, but it’s a Quarterback league. I would project Nix to go somewhere in the mid-third round, or maybe sooner, but I’ve seen countless mock drafts of him going late first. There is a lot to like about Nix, but the issue with him is as follows: there is a lot to like but not much to love.

I don’t necessarily see any “elite” traits, so it’s hard to say that he will come in and make a crazy splash. I can state for sure that he does many good things and does them well. If Nix were to land in a system with an aging quarterback and some electric weapons around him, he could be an excellent NFL player. If I had to single one specific trait about Nix that I would like to highlight, I would probably lean into his ability to extend plays with his legs. Nix does an excellent job on tape of making plays outside the pocket, and in today’s NFL, that is something teams value deeply. The days of pocket statues are all but behind us, especially with the emergence of bigger and better athletes bolstering defensive lines. I would love to see the Jets potentially take Nix in the second or third round as they plan to move on from Zach Wilson. Keeping Aaron Rodgers in the driver’s seat but taking another shot at a QB would allow him to start from square one. This is easier and more desirable than making it work with an ex with whom you’ve had nine public break-ups.

Ceiling Player Comp: Baker Mayfield
Ideal Landing Spot: New York Jets